Mailbag: incl. Should I go with Private Equity? September 24, 2023

23 Sep 2023 · 55 min

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Podcast Episode Summary: Motley Fool Money - Mailbag: incl. Should I go with Private Equity? (September 24, 2023)

Overview In this episode of Motley Fool Money, hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew Page tackle listener questions on various financial topics. The discussion covers private equity, asset turnover ratios, generational wealth, and portfolio allocation.

Key Topics Discussed

  1. Private Equity
  2. Listener Question: Kira inquired whether a retail investor should consider private equity (PE) as an investment option.
  3. Key Points:
  4. Investment Nature: PE is distinct from traditional managed funds and typically involves higher fees and complexity.
  5. Performance Discussion: While private equity has produced competitive returns (14.2% median annualized return compared to 13.7% for the S&P 500), the risks involved are significant.
  6. Market Sentiment: General skepticism exists regarding the sustainability of returns and the average performance across PE investments.
  7. Recommendation: For most investors, a simple, diversified ETF would generally suffice. PE may not be necessary for regular investors without specialized knowledge.
  1. Asset Turnover Ratio
  2. Listener Question: An anonymous listener asked if an asset turnover ratio of 18 is considered bad.
  3. Key Points:
  4. Definition: The asset turnover ratio measures how efficiently a company uses its assets to generate sales.
  5. Interpretation: A higher ratio is generally favorable. An 18 suggests that a company is capital-efficient, selling $18 for every $1 of assets.
  6. Comparison to Other Metrics: Speakers advised focusing more on profitability measures (like return on equity) than solely on asset turnover.
  1. Generational Wealth
  2. Listener Question: John raised concerns about the wealth transfer from boomers to millennials and its implications for wealth inequality.
  3. Key Points:
  4. Wealth Transfer: As boomers pass on wealth, millennials may become the wealthiest generation.
  5. Equity Concerns: The hosts discussed the implications of inherited wealth, including the risk of exacerbating inequality and the importance of teaching financial literacy over simply transferring assets.
  6. Potential Solutions: Discussion touched on inheritance taxes as a way to address wealth inequality.
  1. Portfolio Allocation
  2. Listener Question: Andy asked how much of a portfolio should be allocated to a single investment or a few large holdings versus having multiple smaller ones.
  3. Key Points:
  4. Diversification vs. Concentration: While diversification can mitigate risk, excessive fragmentation may dilute returns. The ideal strategy depends on individual conviction and risk management.
  5. Risk Assessment: Investors should weigh the upside against potential downsides when concentrating investments. High conviction in a well-understood investment can justify a larger allocation.

Conclusion The episode emphasized the importance of understanding one's financial decisions, managing risk, and maintaining a balanced approach to investing. Listeners were encouraged to pursue education and simplified investment strategies to foster long-term wealth.

Key Takeaways

  • Private Equity: Not typically recommended for average investors due to complexity and risk.
  • Asset Turnover: A high ratio indicates efficiency but should be considered alongside profitability measures.
  • Generational Wealth: The transfer of wealth raises concerns about inequality; financial education is crucial.
  • Portfolio Strategy: Balance between diversification and conviction in holdings is essential for effective investment management.

For more insights and detailed discussions, consider subscribing to the Motley Fool Money newsletter at [fool.com.au/LiSTNR](https://fool.com.au/LiSTNR).

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Transcript

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0:00A listener production.

0:07This is the Motley Fool Money Mailbag. Welcome to Motley Fool Money, our very special Sunday Mailbag edition. Specialer than ever, maybe, because Andrew is well and back. I am still well and still back. We are Motley Fool Money. Mr. Page, how are you? Very good. Very good. Keen to get into some questions. I'm glad, mate. The first question on my list. I had someone... Oh, no, sorry. Sorry. I misjudged. Continue. I'm just wondering why you're laughing. I don't know. I don't know. Please continue. All right. A question here from Scott who says what is strongman? See that's why I laughed and you knew full well.

0:47I knew full well. It's all about the theatre Mr Page. It's all about the theatre. Private online investment club. As they say in the movie Gladiator are you not entertained? Probably not actually a good point. Thank you for sharing that with me. Let's get straight to the questions mate. One from Kira who says Hi, gents. My name is Kira. And yes, please feel free to call this out on the podcast machine. Have I mentioned I like the podcast machine, Andrew? It's taken off. As an avid listener to your podcasts, which are great, by the way, I have a question or topic for discussion, please. We hear about the 2 ,000-odd companies listed on the ASX that we can choose from.

1:24However, I've come across some impressive and talented leaders who play important roles in private companies, which leads me down a rabbit hole towards private equity given the australian sovereign fund currently has 16 of its value in pe this is the future fund should a mum investor kira's female which i love and a mum thank you kira also be considering this option too over and above the usual etfs and direct holdings and if so how would one go about identifying and comparing firms products etc could you please start with the basics i.e is investing in pe the same as investing in a managed fund?

1:59I gather fees will be higher than your standard ETF, but is there complexity here that you could cut through? I appreciate the quick answer is just get an ETF, and I can see the appeal of cheaper and easier. However, this is a great platform to go a little deeper and challenge preconceptions. I love it, Kira. Particularly private equity, which has old money vibes that you somehow need to be in the figurative boys club to know which one to invest in. In the spirit of democratizing access to building long-term wealth, are we missing a trick by only looking at the publicly listed managed fund type options.

2:31Thanks in advance, Kira. I love it, Kira. Thank you for listening. Thank you for being one of our many, but not large enough group of female listeners. Thank you for sending in your question too, mate. I love the mum investor. That's great, rather mum investor. The mum investor, that's brilliant. Ram, private equity. You're not going to just buy an ETF, are you? Nah, I wouldn't even bother, frankly. I mean, there's all kinds of asset classes and there is a school of thought that you should have a little bit of everything. I just don't think it's necessary. Look, the evidence, I think, speaks very loudly.

3:03I mean, one of the great sort of sacred cows forever was the 60-40 portfolio, right? 60 % equities, 40 % bonds. Like, why? Why would I hamstrung myself with 40 % government debt, low-yielding, not pass, like hard pass? I'm sure there's a whole bunch of financial planners who are just falling off their chairs. And different strokes for different folks, and it can't be a blanket kind of statement. But for most people, no, you don't need it, and you certainly don't need that much. Private equity just has a very different raison d 'etre to other sort of investment mandates, really. They're basically looking to come in, buy cheap, usually with leverage strip the guts out of it refloat it you know they're not they're not there for a long time they're there for a good time and and they've got a bad reputation frankly now again anyone from private equity who happens to be listening i know you're the exception to the rule and there are exceptions to the rule but for most part you know they look at all the companies that have come onto the asx that have come out of private equity hands they haven't always gone on that well we've we've joked before is if you made me or you uh ceo of a company we could make the next few years results fantastic it's like yeah cutting the guts of the thing out and just you know no cost no investment profits are going to look pretty good because margins are going to go up you know but it just it just it has a consequence and i'm being let me let me let me throw that back at you though you wouldn't want to buy from private equity but if you were the bloke who could list that piece of rubbish on the asx at an elevated price and make a fortune doing it wouldn't you want to be in on that game yeah yeah absolutely it's a bit like the um except if you're assuming that this is just a guaranteed way to make money now i haven't seen any analysis on this but anecdotally i know there's plenty of private equity firms that have just done a horrible horrendous job like awful awful performance right it's like the mythology of short sellers you know oh that's the smart money they always get it right no they don't they get it wrong all the time so does private equity so the the answer the frustrating answer is it depends if you give me the opportunity to invest with an incredibly savvy capable private equity team sure i'm not going to argue against that yeah but i would argue that that statistically it seems to me likely that you know the odds the odds there's probably just as much very ordinary performers out there as there are good performers frankly and uh look at all the private equity that tipped money into things when free money was sloshing around there for a while and funding e-scooters and all this stuff that just ended up in rivers and just blew up a bunch of capital.

5:54I'm being really harsh here. I just think, I think, and I know I always say it, you know, keep it simple. Simplicity is really your friend here. You know, look, on your deathbed, if you've put all your money into a broad-based single index ETF and you look back on your life and go, wow, I got 7.5 % compound over a lifetime. Could have I done better? Yeah, of course you could have. Is it a terrible result? Not really. Did you avoid a whole bunch of stress and unnecessary, you know, false sophistication? You know, I just, how do you handicap yourself? That's the other thing you've got to ask you.

6:33and I'm not trying to say this from my ivory tower. I wouldn't know where to start. I've been in this industry for, gosh, nearly 30 years now. I had no idea where I would even start. So if Kira has an edge that she feels gives her the opportunity and the potential to identify the really great ones and invest in them directly, which is, again, probably not because there's all kinds of barriers that are there, then by all means go for it. But I just don't feel as though it's necessary. i don't think it's necessary either mate i found some data which is unusual for this podcast but i did what you were chatting um this is new york times article about the u.s so blah blah it's also a bit older so it's as of end of september 2020 is the most recent data that was published it was published the end of december 2021 so there's probably more recent data out there but i haven't seen it just quote new york times quote as of september 2020 private equity funds had produced a 14.2 % median annualized return net of fees over the previous 10 years compared with 13.7 % for the S &P 500, end quote.

7:38Now, a couple of things. First is that's an outperformance for private equity, which is great by a bit. Second thing I would mention though is that's a median return. I was going to say, that's yes. Not an average return. And so the median return, now medians are generally better than averages when you're talking about some data sets. For example, average incomes between me and Kerry Packer, or not Kerry anymore, James Packer, don't matter much because the average isn't very useful. Someone's very rich and someone's not, and the other one is me. So, you know, there's that. But median does mean there's a broad range outside that.

8:09Now, I don't know why they've chosen a median. They just have. It's not necessarily bad, but just bear in mind we're looking at different things here. An average S &P 500 is the average of all the companies, not the median company on the S &P 500. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Well, this article is actually not trying to overrate it. This article is actually trying to say it's not as great as people thought. So they're not trying to overset it. They're saying, hey, it's roughly the same and you know what you're getting. Because that's my next point, Kira, is this is the median fund. Now the fund themselves, the fund isn't the manager.

8:37So here's the thing. Normally when you invest in private equity, there's massive amounts of disparate ways of investing in it. But normally you give them your money, you lock it up for five to 10 years. They invest in a very specific subset fund. So it might be the Andrew Page investment fund number one, managed by Page Incorporated. So you're not investing in Page Incorporated, you're investing in the fund that Andrew Page Incorporated is running. So that one fund with a cash box and individual investments, which may or may not replicate what they did last time. In other words, it's really, really, really, really hard to know how likely you are in advance to get anything like the average return.

9:15So when you see that how well Facebook's done or how well, frankly, the guys who took Maya Private, I think made a mozza, even though they sold a dog back onto the ASX. You can see those numbers. You can't see A, how representative it is and B, whether or not the next fund you invest in, which is going to be a very specific, you can't invest like an ETF style thing in lots of funds or you're investing in one fund with the funds locked up for years, hoping it's a Facebook, hoping it's not a insert company here. Milk Run, for example, the one-hour delivery mob that went broke recently. Those are the sorts of things you're taking the risk on.

9:51So I would say I would not do private equity because the one thing the ASX gives you is either the ETF opportunity. And I know you wanted us not to say just get an ETF. So I won't, even though Andrew did. But the other thing is you can do your research on individual ASX listed companies based on their background, based on the current price, based on their products, based on what you know, as opposed to sending someone a check and saying, I hope you find the next Facebook. So that's, I wouldn't. I'm not saying you shouldn't necessarily. I'm not saying you can't. I'm not saying some people won't make money doing it.

10:21I just don't think you can get access to sufficient data to give yourself an edge, a sense you're definitely doing the right thing. Now, you mentioned at the end, by the way, you talk about the boys club and the old money thing. I think that's the impression that they give. They frankly want to, right? Because if you make it sound exclusive, then everybody wants in. You and I want to get access to the things that only the old boys network can get access to. And I get that. I would just finish by saying, going back to the original numbers, in the US for the decade until September 2020. The PE market there was roughly the same, close enough to the same as the rest of the equity markets.

10:57So there is no special old boys club where the results are 20, 25%. It was about the same as the average market return with probably a very big disparate difference. And unless you know you're getting the upside of that, you may get the downside of that median. And so you're kind of putting your eggs in one basket, hoping that you're above average rather than below average. And that's generally speaking. it's it's not a probabilistic way to approach investing in my view yeah yeah hey let's get a question from a question you personally doesn't give their uh give their information good afternoon gentlemen thank you for your service is our unknown questioner please advise knowing if i take your advice and lose money it's all my fault is an asset turnover ratio of 18 bad bad now it's uh it's interesting questions to ask as an absolute number let's go back to asset turnover ratio we don't talk about ratios very often on this podcast ram because uh well frankly they're not very exciting radio but it is important stuff so can you share with our listeners what asset turnover ratio measures and then whether a number any given number is good or bad i don't even know what is it like the is 18 over the is it over a defined time frame of 18 18 times let me Let me do the thing.

12:11I've got it here in front of me. Total asset turnover equals net sales divided by the average total assets. Now, ignore average for now. They use the beginning asset, end asset to average those. Oh, sorry. I thought you meant it within a portfolio. Okay. No, I'm sorry you're thinking about portfolio turnover. So asset turnover is sales divided by assets. And the idea basically is, if you can do a lot of sales with not many assets, that's a good thing. And it is, right? If I can, like a software company, If I can sell something without having to actually spend any money to create the thing I'm selling, that's great.

12:42If I have to build massive big steel mills, then it's a measure of capital intensity. How much money do I have to put to work to make the sale is really what this is measuring. So 18, I've got to say to you, honestly, unknown questioner, I don't know the actual answer. I don't have a frame of reference for what's good and bad in an absolute sense in terms of turnover, other than higher is better than lower. 18 would suggest to me, you've got a pretty capital-like business, generally speaking. Because if you can put a dollar of assets and make$18 worth of sales, that's a pretty good starting point, generally speaking.

13:16So I would think that was probably better than average, but without any way of absolutely knowing for sure. I don't use it, frankly. I don't use it as something that I think is important. What it shows you is other things I do look at, which is capital intensity or returns on equity, for example, or assets would give you similar results. The reason I don't use it is because it uses sales rather than profits. And if I could do$18 of sales, but my gross margin was 1 % on that$18 worth of sales, I'd rather have$9 worth of sales at an 80 % gross margin. I'd simply get more profit per dollar of sales.

13:48And so I'd get more profit per dollar of assets. So I would personally use a return on assets measure if you wanted to use the assets as the base or some other return on equity, profit margins, other things I would use instead of asset turnover. That's just my personal view. rave do you have a similar one yeah no i think that's about right it's also it's that frustrating answer if it depends what's what kind of business are we talking about some businesses it'll make no sense whatsoever like it's just a nonsense kind of number um i i think i think i like to see things where it is relevant that you see consistency or hopefully even improvement over time that's a really great that's a really great sign um i think all investors start as you as you go on this journey we all start with the idea of i'm just going to collect lots of data and crunch lots of numbers and scan lots of markets and find the one that has the best set of metrics um a lot of us do that i know you did i certainly did yeah yeah totally and for most part But I think you tend to graduate from that unless what you are, you term what might be a factor investor and you sort of Ben Graham style it where you do it over literally hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of companies and just try and play a statistical sort of game, which isn't really practical for the private investor.

15:11So it's not, there's not enough signal in the output given all the variability that you will see within just the one metric and the fact that you really want to look at things holistically as well. So you can have companies that might have a fantastic asset turnover ratio, but just on every other metric is a really bad one. So there's no formula that exists or combination of metrics that exist that will always point you in the right direction. The way I think about it, I think that demonstrates that the most easily, is that if that was true, you would have the JP Morgans of this world with the whole floor of their glass tower decked out with supercomputers and PhDs doing exactly that.

15:57Yeah, that's right. In fact, a few of them do. And in fact, the very fact that they do that arbitrage the opportunity away so it doesn't exist. Yes, although we're back to the$20 economist thing we mentioned on Friday. I mean, just because someone's doing it doesn't mean it's not there. We shouldn't assume that just because an opportunity is there, maybe someone else has done it. Buffett and Munger have been doing their exact thing for 55 years and no one's arbitraged that away yet. yeah well that's that is true that is true so i'm not saying don't look at it look at it you know where it makes where it makes sense to to to look at it 100 but again it's more it's more in the it's more in that direction and it's more as one part of a very large sort of puzzle um so yeah it it's what can i say um the the the problem that you'll have with a lot of these things too is that they're always backward looking.

16:50So you get last year's revenue, right? And the assets that are on the balance sheet that time, it's like, well, what actually assets am I going to include in this? There'll be some assets that probably don't make any, some intangible assets that really aren't relevant to this. Inventory is probably a better asset line item that you want to factor in to this kind of stuff. And then you think, well, why don't I just use inventory turnover and then and then you start this is what i see a lot of investors do they they sort of cut it and slice it and dice it in a way that they find that is relevant to them yeah but it just it gets it just gets it just gets a little bit messy so there's no i know the the tempting answer to give is like oh it's very important always look for something that's above 15 yeah that that's that's the nice answer right um it just doesn't work and there'll be companies And again, I don't want to mention names here, but there's one that I'm particularly fond of at the moment, which historically speaking, it's pretty ordinary on this metric.

17:47I haven't even done the numbers, but I know from the balance sheet and the income statement, look, it's pretty ordinary. But they're in the process of rolling out a strategy where there's all kinds of things happening under the hood, which kind of obfuscates what's really going on. But I definitely want to see improvement in that. And they've started calling out some areas where they have shown improvement in their inventory turnover and the efficiency that is there. I'm rambling at this point. It's just, take it as a data point. Interesting. How does it compare to where we've gone? Where do I think it should be?

18:24Maybe look at some peers and then put that as one piece in a much larger puzzle. I like it, mate. I've got a question from Marcus who this was a month or so ago so he was talking before he says I hear our minister says we are squirrelling away our funds and we should spend it but isn't that what we should do and save for a rainy day I hope the boss comments on the minister's speech I'm not sure who the boss is but I think we've kind of covered that spending the future fund is just madness it wasn't by the way the minister it was a shadow treasurer I think from memory no it was a think tank although the shadow treasurer did say the treasurer was spending too much time I'm thinking about the long term, which I frankly thought was a little bit bananas.

19:03He does say, and this feels like a Dorothy Dixer, but I promise it's not. He says, Scott, thanks for the super advice as my wife was asking. I can't remember what he said. But what can the fools offer? Paid advice, of course, he says. When we retire with our super, I'd really like to live on the interest from my capital. And if not enough, I will work, I will earn some. That's work for it, he says. We do have a service called Everlasting Income. If you want to know more about it, email us and we'll sort out some information for you. that's i don't know a massive plug but uh that's exactly we have a service designed exactly for that marcus um which is designed to turn a portfolio into an income stream um so i will i will answer your question but not not with a lot of detail not for a long time because that's just a bit sucky i'm not here to plug our services um one from but thanks for asking mate i appreciate it one from john hi scott and andrew at 55 i am a gen xer i just missed missed out on being a loathsome boomer it says in brackets aimed at andrew there you go mate gen x is the best generation it really is and they're most under they're most overlooked yeah it's boomers and millennials boomers and millennials what about us what about exactly exactly that movie pictures weren't wrong when they're saying what about me in the early 80s that's an anthem for our generation if you don't understand what what about me is then don't worry about it you're either too young or too old and we don't care we're gen x um uh john says i've also just found your mailbag podcast What a revelation it is listening to you and Andrew.

20:24Is this your Uncle John, mate, or mine? I'm not sure. I don't know. I'll take it either way. Yeah, yeah. Holy Dooley, he says. How you guys talk about the topics of the day for so long and keep it interesting is amazing. Going off on so many tangents, but still managing to come back to the original point. Thank you, mate. We do our best. I have a little thought bubble for discussion, says John. These wealthy boomers with multiple properties and money in the bank will not be with us forever. And when they do leave us, they will leave their remaining assets to their children. who will in turn give a substantial share of those assets to their children.

20:56In other words, the millennials. So the millennials could then become the most affluent generation. What do you think? What do you think, Andrew? Well, this is a very big question because you kind of get to, you kind of wade unintentionally so into ideological waters. Yes, you do. Do you want a society that is very merit-based in terms of your abilities and efforts and risks taken? Or do you just want to have your station in life determined by what grandma and granddad did? You know, I don't know. I'm just going to instantly annoy half the audience to say what I prefer. Go on. I think it's very natural.

21:47It's very human. It's very loving, in fact, to want to build enduring generational wealth for you and yours. Like, you do. I want to look after my kids and my grandkids and so on and so forth. At the same time, I don't want to ever have them in a situation. What's Buffett say? You want your kids to have enough money that they can do whatever they want, but not so much that they can do nothing. To do anything but not to do nothing. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And you tend to see, I mean, what's the old saying is the first generation makes it, the second keeps it, the third loses it. Yep. Shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations.

22:24It happens, right? And it's because you sort of, over time, you forget the value of the dollar and you start to take it for granted. You start to see your position as some specific exceptionalism to your family lineage. It gets all very aristocratic very, very quickly. So I tend to err a little bit on the side of inheritance tax. You know, I think it's without, you know, it's not necessarily a black and white, you know, like tax everything as soon as someone dead and take all of their assets away versus nothing. I don't even know what, it's way too complex for me to even, and I haven't thought deeply enough about it.

23:06But they're the kind of questions you're getting at here. so I do think I do think I certainly look so I work from home I go for a walk each day because otherwise I just get deep vein thrombosis sitting at a desk all day and I live in an area where once you see it you can't unsee it I walk past all these older people who living in these assets that must be worth three or four million dollars if they're if they're a dollar you know like they're just they're all falling down um they're out the front in shoes with holes in them and just like asset rich cash poor yeah you think what are you waiting for what are you waiting for i'm not saying you know yeah buy a ferrari and go to town but it's just sort of like i think some unfortunately the chains of habit are too lightly felt until they're too heavy to be broken to to quote Buffett again.

24:05Yeah. And, and you, you, I feel as though there's, some people are just bad at living at a certain point. Like you, you, you, you, you save up and you build this wealth through a life of prudence and hard work and sacrifice. Yeah. And then it's, it's, it's become so central to your, your modus operandi that you actually like, you know, even if you feel as though you're going to live for another 30 years, you can live a very, very comfortable lifestyle and leave some for your kids. And here you are eating cat food, shivering in the cold. Like, what are you doing? So there's a balance to be struck here as well.

24:45I get that people are right to sort of say, I want to live off the income. That's my goal too. Just for the flexibility and the optionality of things. That's a very noble kind of thing. But not all of us are going to be able to do that. And I think you want to strike a right balance. unless you believe in reincarnation. I don't. And even then, if you do, how do you transfer the wealth to whatever thing you reincarnate? Like, you know, a few spins around the sun and you want to enjoy yourself, I think. I don't know. Am I being too... People who say you can get too hard, you can be too hard on this front and then give it to someone and then your kids are just going to, you know, throw it up against the wall and it's like, for what?

25:30I don't know. I think you did right, mate. I think, so a couple of things, back to the question. Sorry, way off topic. That's good, it's good.

25:42So I think the boomers are probably the wealthiest generation ever because of the way that our society has evolved. I'm getting back to your point, Andrew, and to the questioner's point. and i think it's likely that most of that the wealth as a group will get passed down to the generations yes because they're not going to spend it before they die because a lot of it's captured in housing and fixed assets and share portfolios and we have been able to as a society store more wealth than ever i think in monetary terms so i think that's that's probably true as it goes down the generations frankly a lot of that wealth's going to be used to pay off debts and we've talked about house prices before and i'm going to try and keep andrew between the the red and yellow lines or whatever to make sure we don't get off the off course here um the uh so i think that that's that's also probable and so not as much absolute wealth will end up getting passed down because a lot of what we used to pay off debt now that's kind of a function of wealth i guess if you have less debt you're then wealthier because you're less indebted but you know so there's some of that won't necessarily go down the same size and quantum and then to the millennials as you rightly point out with your question i actually share so that that at a generational level that's i think the answer i think you're right john i think that's exactly what will happen now that'll keep going though to the next generation one after that one after that so is it consequential that the most most wealthy generation no eventually in time that will happen because that's how these things will cascade my biggest issue is absolutely andrew's issue i am increasingly am i in favor of it yet probably yeah i probably am in favor of inheritance taxes i call them death taxes if you want let's let's really ramp up the the uh hyperbole and and uh and uh pejoratives um the hyperbole as the kids say uh because i have a andrew's kids will be fine my kids will be fine um we as long as i don't you know get hit by a truck and do something stupid in my portfolio between my super my wife's super and the money we put aside separately our kids will be fine they won't be squillionaires they'll be millionaires they'll be fine uh and as andrew says i want to look after my family so i'm going to do that selfish i'm going to do that.

27:45Okay. That's what I'm going to do. Um, so it'll be fine. If I look at my, come my kids mates, if I look at some of my extended families, uh, family and, and their friends, there are people who don't have by virtue of accident of birth, being able to be born in the right places with the right skills, have the right life experiences and be in the right places at the right times to earn the right amount of money. They won't have that same ability to look after their kids the way I can with mine. Again, I'm not a squillionaire. I'm not going to be passing on yachts and second house. I have one house.

28:17I have a share portfolio. That's it. I have a couple of cars. But we will hopefully die with enough money that my kids are fine and their kids are fine. Others won't have that opportunity. Now think about, we've talked about compounding before. Imagine compounding not for 10 years or 40 years. Imagine compounding for 40 years or 80 years in terms of family wealth. And think about not compounding for 80 years. Now cast this forward to 2030 uh let's go for 2120 or 2110 let's go let's go 90 years in 2110 unless my kids do a stupidly terrible job of this there's a decent chance that they will be able to pass on inherited generational wealth for multiple generations now they have 85 kids and give it all to charity and go live in a you know a um where do you live if you're a buddhist andrew is it a temple somewhere like that anyway i guess you're gonna live one of those places haven't a kibbutz somewhere anyway you're gonna live in one of those places and you give it away then maybe not but if i'm able to give something to my kids and they can use that and give it to their kids and their kids their kids my descendants will have a better chance than the descendants of someone listening to this podcast who is a minimum wage who has not been able to save any money because of circumstances and who has seven kids now is that fair well on one hand is it fair because i worked hard and i deserved to be able to give some money to my kids yes is it fair that their kids start off behind the eight ball and their kids and their kids and their kids are even further and further behind the eight ball because my kids and my grandkids eight ball gets pushed further away or further ahead no it's absolutely not so although i'd be a beneficiary of my kids be a beneficiary of no inheritance taxes i really desperate i think one of the biggest long-term social trends we're not talking about right now is inherited inequality and that scares the hell out of me for our society it makes me sad for people who won't have that opportunity when others around them will have that opportunity and we will end up stratifying the society the way that feudal england frankly and pre-consolidation Germany, the fiefdoms of Germany.

30:11Why don't we end up in that situation? Well, I don't know, but I don't know that we won't. Now, I'm not saying it's going to be that bad, but I think it's a real issue. I think it's a real risk. I think as a society, we owe it to our descendants and frankly, not our descendants, the descendants of other people. If we believe in anything about equality, about a fair go, about an even start, about if you work hard enough, you can make it. If you start with a million dollars to start with zero i guarantee you can't end up in the same place more often than not and that's not reasonable so i think we should be talking about it there you go i think i love that i think the best thing you can leave your kids is um a good education not necessarily a formal one but just it's the whole teacher teach a man to fish versus give the man a fish yes if i had a choice between and it's like it never i can't see a situation where it's a binary choice like this but I can either leave my kids a million dollars each in today's purchasing power, or I can make sure that when I leave this mortal coil that they are well schooled in the idea of wealth creation.

31:13Yeah. You know, I'd much prefer the former, you know, the latter, sorry, the latter. Yeah, yeah. You know, that's something I think is something that all of us can do, no matter of your circumstances. and you will find that it is the most powerful thing that you can pass on as really, really good principles and start early, I think. It'd be really annoying because kids don't listen. I didn't. That's a hard spot. Do you know what I mean? I actually agree with the latter point. I disagree with the former. Oh, yeah? If I could, well, I mean, assuming they didn't blow the million bucks. I just think - But they will if they don't have the right mindset.

31:50Well, I guess that's true, right? But if that's, you know, you're right. If they're going to blow it anyway, of course, that's true. But I don't think you need, you don't even, With a million dollar head start, you don't need to be a financial genius because you bought your house. Yeah. I mean, that'll - Where are you buying a house? Well, not where you live, obviously. No. Not all that can live in your part of the world. But seriously, if you think about that, imagine going through life from day one or 18, having never had to pay a dollar of rent or a dollar of mortgage. I mean, that's a phenomenal, phenomenal head start.

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32:19If you give them that, you give them that. If you start without that and say, here's how hard you need to work to get close. And then you compound those things. That's what I mean about the inequality thing. I take your point. In a perfect world, you'd rather give them the ability to compound their money and make more money than have a start. But it's not necessarily binary, right? If you get both, if you could teach a kid with nothing the same lesson as a kid with a million dollars, the kid with a million bucks still makes a squillion dollars, and the other kid probably just manages to compound enough over time.

32:43That's what I mean about the unfairness or the inequality of the starting point. I tell you what, though, if I won Powerball this week or whatever it is, $60 million, something like that, the kids would still be getting a job when they're old enough. they'd be paying me rent for as long as they want to live at home and then maybe at 30 or something they might get a bit of a chunk and they'll hate me for it at least initially but it's a bit of tough love I just everyone listening to this knows exactly what we're talking about I mean think of that person that you know has had everything handed to them on a silver plate they're not a pleasant individual and they're certainly not grateful and it's like gosh I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy

33:34Andrew, can I ask you a question without you jumping on the example instead sticking with the concept of the question? Well, no promises, but I'll try. Andy, this may be the last question I ever ask on your behalf on the podcast. Hi, Scott and Andrew. This is Andy. I've been listening to the pod since 2019. when I first started my investing journey. I try to follow your common sense investing principles of spending less than you earn and investing a bit every month into your best idea. But herein lies my problem. My first, second and third best idea recently all seem to be Bitcoin. I started buying about a year ago and my Bitcoin holding is becoming larger and larger in allocation in my portfolio.

34:19With the expected arrival of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US next year, the upcoming halving in april next year and constantly increasing adoption of hash rates i'm finding hard to buy anything else now here's the question andrew which is not about bitcoin this is what i'm going to ask you to turn your attention to when is a single allocation percentage too high and when should you look at investing in your fourth or fifth best idea how far down your list of ideas should you go thanks andy i will give you about 31 seconds to talk about bitcoin and then i'll ask you to turn your attention to the actual question i won't i won't go down can i can i actually someone asked about the other day and i said actually me and scott did an episode on that earlier this year nice and um i just listened to the start because i thought if i am what have i said here that you know because your thinking evolves over time yeah i know i think it actually held up pretty well i don't think my thinking has changed so i just i would ask people to sort of search out on on the podcast machine search it out and just listen to that that'll give you my thoughts on it nicely um i do know that oh gosh it's a problem andy like it's a mind virus and like you sort of start off you start laughing at it then you go huh yeah maybe i should have a one percent allocation you go hmm he's one percent enough though and it just you know it's it is a it is a sickness for want of a better term and and and i i've actually had my wife say enough no more Andrew no more oh but you think we could just uh both

35:52oh it's really hard so I've actually I've actually found some Bitcoin friends so we just we just talk to talk to ourselves and we save everyone else the uh so I do Andy I feel you man I feel um yeah it's a good question i definitely think that the waiting should be a function of conviction okay and buffett and munger were asked this at one of their more recent agms and someone said how much is too much and buffett said we every now and again come across an idea that is so wonderful that if we didn't have billions and billions and we were just managing our own money, we'd go 100 % in because it's just a fat pitch and they don't come along that often.

36:41And he said that goes against every principle that modern finance will teach you because it seems risky. But it does rest on the, this is where you've got to be honest with yourself, of genuinely understanding it and recognizing that it is indeed a fat pitch and it's not something that looks really good, but is actually terrible. And that's very hard to get, very hard to get that level of conviction. And that is hard, mate, because I think that's my biggest concern when we say things like that to people. And you're not wrong, and Buffett's not wrong, but you've got to have high conviction and be right.

37:15Yes. And that seems obvious, and it seems true, and it seems real. And there were people who had a huge conviction in, and then insert, you know, frankly, non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies or, you know, terrible stocks that had a great story or and you go oh man enron had such a great story and i just i had i did all the research and i just thought this was gonna be the best thing ever and i had such high conviction i put my entire portfolio in it yep and it's like you know so so how do you gotta be you gotta have conviction and be right so okay so answer that question for me how do you how do you how do you put those two things together how do our listeners put those two things together by trying to back their conviction but also recognizing that unlike buffett we are not geniuses and maybe we're wrong sometimes yeah well i mean i just i never go to 100 you know i just i i don't um i i i've i very much try to steel man the idea you know and i and i i tried to say what does a mistake look like you'd be surprised how often like everything's 2020 in hindsight but you'd be surprised if you're open if you're genuinely objective yeah and open-minded like everyone says oh i'm really interested to know what the other side thinks you know no you're not you want you want confirmation bias like we all do yeah um you'd be surprised like you you think of all the major blow-ups on the isx over of whatever period you want there were always signs right now that doesn't mean that oh it was definitely going to go bad but every time you sort of see these red flags it does it should at the very least entice you to lower that weighting you know so i i try and revisit my thinking on a regular basis usually when new information comes to life you go huh i thought this do i still think that and that's very hard to do because we are so emotionally attached to our ideas there's a company at the moment i hold which i can't fault too much but gosh it's at a two-year low at the moment you think what's going on with it i don't feels as though you're executing well and okay there's a few sort of issues here and there and but overall it's you know like what and and i i don't go 100 into it because like well i'm not that sure right they're sure they're sure yeah they're sure and then there's there's sure but on a risk adjusted basis you know on a on a valuation basis it started getting more and more and all else being ankle it's just more compelling so i will increase the weight i have increased the weighting recently and and i just try and i try there's no exact formula to use here but it is you know just being honest understanding what a mistake looks like continually trying to destroy your own ideas that's the real skill here just like how am i wrong i see and this is why i always think it's worth before you buy anything write out what what a mistake looks like and what would cause you to or at least de-weight, if that's a term.

40:14It is now. Yeah, I'm not really giving a satisfying answer here, but you go for it. What do you think? I think it's a great answer, mate.

40:26I've happily held previously 40%. Yeah. I think it's conviction and there is – I'm going to break conviction up into two things. one is the chances you're right the other is the chances you're wrong and i that's obviously the same thing what i guess i mean is hey this thing looks too cheap to be true i can't see anything wrong with it therefore i should buy it that's that's the conviction being right the other is how badly could i be wrong and if i am wrong how much this is going to hurt yeah so my two largest positions are berkshire hathaway and washington h sol pattinson they are the most boring businesses in the entire world.

41:05They are also run by spectacularly great management teams, long company cultures, massively diversified businesses where if I'm wrong about Buffett and he's no longer a genius, he owns 10 % of Apple and 10 % of Coke and 80 businesses we talk about. The operating businesses of Berkshire will be completely fine even if Buffett disappeared tomorrow and went walkabout for a month, a year, 10 years, never came back, Berkshire will be completely fine. Solpatt, similarly, Rob Melner's a great guy, glad he's running the company, like him a lot as an investor and as a person. If he was to not ever buy and make another acquisition or purchase, the business has internal businesses.

41:40It has listed wholly owned companies. It has equity stakes in controlling stakes and non-controlling stakes in other companies. It'll be completely fine. So I hold those shares because I believe the business is likely to be outperforming for years to come, for hopefully decades to come. And also, if I'm wrong, the downside is reasonably small. Now, I could have a higher commission on the upside potential of something else. I'll get another example, corporate travel management, business I own, talked about before. I think that's got a better upside potential than Solpads or Berkshire because Solpads or Berkshire are massive.

42:14They're reasonably pedestrian. They're conglomerates. They're not going to be able to shoot the lights out in a single category because it's not what they're trying to do. And so I think they'll beat the market. I think corporate travel's got a much better chance of beating the market. However, if their customers found a better online solution, if they made some badly priced acquisitions, if their customers left for a better idea if if if if there's a much bigger downside for corporate travel than there is for these other two so i don't own as much corporate travel as i do for the other two even though i think the upside is higher so i i don't like the phrase risk adjusted because academics use it to mean other things that it shouldn't actually mean i actually love it but i hate the way the academics use it exactly yes that's right but i don't use it generally because when you then look that up in the on the online or something else you'll think then but they're saying what i'm saying which is different so um anyway long story short uh combination for me of well all conviction around one i 100 agree i just make sure i include both the upside and the downside and there's no surprise my largest holdings the ones with the the lowest potential downside because i'm putting yeah i own jeez uh berkshire is probably 20 of my portfolio solpats might be 12, 13.

43:28But I wouldn't own that of an individual company that I had single business line with many meaningful downside risk. Do you know, it's sort of like if you look at, well, again, strongman.com forward slash strongman, you won't see the names. They'll be blanked out for the free accounts, but one, two, three, four. Four stocks make up half of my weighting. 50 % in four stocks. Yep. One is 18%. I think that's perfectly fine if you know what you're doing. Right? By the way, can I just say quickly, I don't think most people listening should do the same thing because you've been doing this for 30 years, you just said.

43:59So I'm going to just bracket that with, I think RAM is perfectly safe to do it. Mine's probably actually slightly higher than that if I had up those top threads talked about. Or maybe not. Anyway, but I don't know that someone who's been investing for a year should pick four companies and put 50 % of their assets in, knowing that they know they're half good at this thing. Yeah, diversification is a hedge against ignorance and not an mean sort of prerogative thing. way yeah it's just yeah and it's it's just you know know yourself and and like if you decide that today i am going to take up juggling you're just gonna suck at it and don't start with knives or chainsaws yeah exactly you know oh i've been juggling for 30 years all right i might i might add an extra ball or two or maybe a chainsaw you know he says juggling chainsaws is fine so i should do it too yeah yeah yep and i also think too is is i think it's it's a question of years but it's also a question of cycles i think yeah you need to go through gosh i don't know there's no hard number but i would you want to go through a few bear markets and some big ones that's a great point to make i love you know yes that's exactly right because because we're all geniuses in a bull market like we all are you know i i tell often a story of a friend of mine who started in 2006 i want to say and in the lead up to the gfc just like 10xed his money he was like this is best thing ever this is the why did and he was trading with cfds and just took his money and just 10 extra he could have retired as a very young man and the long story is is that he's just like well if i'm doing this well with what i started with imagine if i it's it's like doubling you know at the pokies like double it double it double it you know it's just exponential characteristic to it well he lost it all right like zero still zero right you know and and it's sort of i feel as though you need to have looked the devil in the eyes i felt his breath on your neck and had that sort of dark you know loneliness of of the soul you know and to to have gone through that not just once or twice a few times and then you that you become very battle-hardened and it is and then you just become better and better and better and better at it and it's it's you can't rush it right you just can't rush it so so don't feel as though having listened to this conversation that the right answer for me is x it will depend on where you are start out and then and then evolve as you as your as your confidence and your and your experience uh determines uh the one thing the one thing i will say but we've got to move on is is the i think we as investors we focus very heavily on the income statement in other words we look a lot at revenue and sales and earnings per share as we should right like the end of the day we're trying to find good cash flow generating machines profit machines right um too often we overlook the balance sheet and you reminded me when you were talking about uh berkshire and and solpats and that like the thing is with companies like that is that there are some companies out there that even if things really go pear-shaped you've got a great sort of for want of a better term level of support in the actual hard real assets that underpin it whenever we do have a surprise shock um the only surprise you should have is that there is a shock really you know let me reframe that you should if you're surprised that there is a shock well that's surprising There will always be a shock.

47:32And you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. And what I can guarantee you is that the next recession, let's say we have a brutal recession. Let's call it a depression, right? Everyone's going to suffer. Tide's going to go way out. The best of the best businesses aren't going to do that great. But the ones that have a very minimal debt and very strong cash reserves will survive. They'll survive. And they'll come out the other end of it. But if you are, we are finding this out now in 2023. I think the last 12 months have been a real masterclass in when the free money dries up.

48:09How robust are you as really as an operation? And there are companies out there that only survive by the good grace of investors. Like, oh, we've spent all our money. Can we raise some money again? Yeah, of course you can. And you can raise it at a really high valuation. Boom, we're going to do it. We're going to do it. We're going to do it. Oh, no one's in the mood to do that anymore. Oh my gosh, we're in trouble. You know? And so all I'm saying is in trying to sort of measure that risk, all else being equal, when the companies have very, very strong balance sheets, you have far, far less risk, even though the 12-month share price or the 12-month profit performance figures may change drastically for the worse.

48:45Yeah. Just quickly, I don't want to get necessarily a new angle, but JV HiFi and Harvey Norman, both trading on roughly the same PE. I think Harvey's at 9.7 and JB's 10.4 or something. For all intents and purposes, it's close enough. The difference is, and speaking of balance sheet, Harvey Norman has$4 billion, almost his entire market cap in property. And I'm not saying that necessarily makes it a better investment. Harvey don't own JB, not just for that reason, by the way. But Harvey Norman's trading at 1.14 times book value. So basically you're buying the assets and getting the business for not much more.

49:25now jb is trading at three and a half times book value now i don't know what'll happen next i know which company does better they're both off the same pe to your point though mate we say david jones and maya used to be like this in the old days yeah i was going to mention that yes right they had a truckload of property maya had all his debt on the same pe and you kind of think well and people say to me oh they're kind of the same the same businesses and i think jb's future is price i'm buying jb i'm like that's cool i get it but two businesses in the same industry selling mostly the same products with roughly the same PE, very, very, very, very, very different organizational structures.

49:56And again, it doesn't matter which one you like most. I'm just making the point that if everything goes to hell in a hand basket, you know, JB Hi-Fi is three and a half times asset value. Harvey Norman's trading just a touch above asset value. Now those assets could be worth less if they're not, Harvey Norman stores aren't there, maybe the assets are worth less, all that kind of stuff. Just as you say, mate, in the good times, look at the P &L, in the bad times, look at the balance sheet. It's just worth remembering If I, frankly, you know, I own Harvey for that reason. I like JB a lot. I really do.

50:24It's a recommendation of ours. But those aren't the same businesses just because the PEs are identical. Yep. It matters. It matters. Look at that stuff. Yep. It really does. Hey, mate, really quick question to finish it off. One came from Frankie who says, I've got a question for the pod machine. Ram? Telling you. You guys are always chatting about the value of dollar cost averaging. And I've seen the benefits in my own portfolio as a result. Excellent. Slow and steady each week, says Frankie. But I'm now wondering, as the portfolio grows, is it better to have one or two large holdings, and frankly, ETFs, not individual shares, rather than several smaller ones?

50:59Does the power of compounding work better with, say, two$50 ,000 parcels rather than that same$100 ,000 across a portfolio? The total amount is the same, but does the input of, say, dividends, et cetera, on the larger amount make this a more efficient way of growing the portfolio? Love to hear your thoughts maths isn't the thing that makes the most sense to me uh i'm like that and so many other things thanks for such great pods to look forward to every week i've been with you since the beginning cheers frankie thanks frankie that's awesome really appreciate it uh different or the same mate oh it depends this must be a quick question sorry yeah i well i mean it depends what the average is right like i might have i might have a company in there that's 100 xr yeah and then a whole bunch that just lose 50 you know and depending on the weightings i'm still going to come out at a certain number and that number is you know going to be a represent a compound annual growth rate of x over a set period of time is that better or worse than you know you can arrive at the same destination by two very different paths yeah um so there's no answer to this i mean is it better that i have 10 stocks that all go up 10 exactly per year on average over time or is something that that 10 is achieved via some weird and wacky combination i don't i i i don't know i mean i i've said before that in fact just earlier in this pod that i mean my own personal experience is that the average tends to be pretty decent but gosh within that there's some horror stories and then there's some things that you know look fantastic and the average is better than average so um i'm happy with that and that suits me as my temperament and my chosen style um but i wouldn't advocate that for everyone so that's a hard one what do you think yeah i i have a feeling frankie's asking a slightly different question actually so i'm going to answer the question did i misunderstand okay no i don't think so well i don't know i just do something different from it so um i will so i think frankie's saying is it better to have a a couple of small bits and one big bit.

53:06Is there any efficiencies in having one big bit rather than smaller bits? So kind of an efficiency of an outcome kind of question. So Frankie, what I will say is Ram is absolutely right. It depends what you own. Generally, more is better than less because you get the benefits of diversification as a general rule. All else being equal, I would choose more rather than less. The thing is not all else is equal. So if you were to buy two identical ETFs, you might as well have one. There is no benefit in having two separate ones that are identical. That being said, there's no real cost either because all you're really looking at is transaction costs.

53:35You'll save a slight amount of money buying less frequently in larger bunches because the way brokerage works out, you just pay less as a percentage on a larger purchase. So that kind of works. But once you own them, it makes absolutely no difference. There's two bits of paperwork, but you're not paying a fee per holding, hopefully. So yeah, it makes absolutely no difference. So don't have more or fewer for the purposes of efficiency in the portfolio. Have more or fewer for the benefits of diversification in my view. yeah that's well put yeah i don't reckon we've come to the end of our little road to to not quote boys to men because again unless you're gen x you won't know that line uh i was gonna sing a line then go on no no no now that we've come to the end of the road we haven't come to the end of the road except for this podcast the road continues long into the distance but it won't be jumped back onto as i mangle the metaphor and desperately try and torture it until next friday Assuming, Andrew, you'll rejoin me on that journey.

54:34Well, mate, if we keep getting Bitcoin questions, I'm here with bells on. Or a chance to rent a property, you try and stop me. So, dear listener, I will pretend that's absolutely possible. So, Rem, we'll come back. Just don't tell him I said so. Until next week, thank you for joining us and Fool on. Cheers. The Motley Fool and people appearing in this program may have positions in the companies mentioned. General advice only. Please speak to your financial professional to understand how it may pertain to your situation. Subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener. The Motley Fool operates under Financial Services Licence 400691.

From the publisher

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– What is the Asset Turnover Ratio?

– Are Millennials destined to be the most affluent?

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