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Podcast Summary: Motley Fool Money - Mailbag: incl. What to do with a $1m inheritance? (September 15, 2024)
Episode Overview In this episode of *Motley Fool Money*, hosts Scott Phillips and Andrew Page tackle diverse finance and investment queries submitted by listeners, including topics like Listed Investment Companies (LICs), Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), franking credits, and investment strategies regarding a significant inheritance.
Key Topics Discussed
- Introduction and Light Banter
- The episode opens with casual conversation between Scott and Andrew, highlighting their humorous dynamic.
- Andrew shares experiences from his recent endeavors, emphasizing the importance of aspirations.
- Listener Questions
A. LICs vs. ETFs
- Question from Dave: Dave questions the relevance of LICs in his portfolio compared to ETFs, especially considering their historical underperformance.
- Key Points:
- LICs provide stable dividends but may not outperform index-based ETFs long-term.
- Andrew and Scott discuss the potential advantages and disadvantages of both investment vehicles, concluding that it often depends on the investor's goals.
- They note that while LICs have historical significance, ETFs generally offer lower costs and easier access to market returns.
B. Future of Franking Credits
- Question from Dave: Concerns about the potential elimination of franking credits as government policies evolve.
- Key Points:
- Scott and Andrew believe that while franking credit refunds could be at risk, outright removal of franking credits is politically unviable due to their popularity.
- Scott emphasizes the enduring nature of franking credits as they provide tax advantages to shareholders.
C. Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRPs)
- Question from Dave: Inquiry into why Solpats does not have a DRP option.
- Key Points:
- A recent announcement from Solpats revealed a new DRP option.
- The hosts discuss the pros and cons of DRPs, highlighting issues like tax liabilities and potential dilution.
D. Balancing Income and Life
- Question from Anonymous Listener: Insights on balancing job satisfaction with financial rewards and the implications of working in a declining company.
- Key Points:
- Scott and Andrew talk about the importance of finding a balance between job satisfaction and salary, suggesting that the quality of life and personal happiness should be prioritized over monetary gain.
- They advocate for evaluating job roles in companies experiencing decline, emphasizing morale and the prospect of future growth opportunities.
- $1 Million Inheritance Discussion
- Question from Mr. X: Mr. X seeks advice on how to manage a recent inheritance of $1 million, expressing a desire to reduce working hours and explore investment options.
- Key Points:
- Scott’s recommendation: Use the inheritance to buy a home outright, eliminating housing-related expenses, thus reducing the need for full-time work.
- Andrew supports the idea of maximizing optionality, suggesting that reducing financial pressures allows for greater freedom in lifestyle choices.
- They advise cautious consideration of overseas investments, stressing the importance of understanding the associated risks.
Key Takeaways
- Investment Vehicles: LICs and ETFs have distinct characteristics; investors should choose based on individual goals and risk tolerance.
- Franking Credits: Likely to remain due to their popularity and potential political backlash against their removal.
- Job Satisfaction vs. Salary: A balance should be struck between financial compensation and personal happiness, especially in declining industries.
- Inheritance Options: Prioritize paying off debt (like a mortgage) and consider investments that ensure long-term stability without sacrificing current quality of life.
Conclusion This episode of *Motley Fool Money* provides valuable insights into various investment strategies, the future of franking credits, and the importance of balancing life and work. Scott and Andrew’s engaging dialogue makes complex financial topics accessible and relatable for listeners.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01A listener production.
0:07This is the Motley Fool Money Mailbag. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. It's our very special Sunday Mailbag edition. That means he's back from his exploits, his exercise exploits, no less. He is, of course, the man, the myth, the legend, Andrew Page Esquire from Australia's premier online investment club, strawman.com. Mr. Page, good morning. Good morning. You know, one day I'm going to run into a listener and they're going to go, wow, you're a lot less fit than I've been led to believe. Are you going to say you're going to run into them halfway through a marathon or something? That'd be appropriate.
0:42Very little chance of that. Mate, yes. Look, I think we all have to have aspirations. I think without aspirations, you've got to give up on life. And that could be your aspiration. But one day, one day, can I speak about aspirations? There was a time when I used to look at the Commonwealth Games and Olympic Games and work out what I could still do. The last one I had was lawn bowls. in the Commonwealth Games. I think even that's gone now. Not that I was ever going to be competitive. I was like, okay, well, I can't do that. I'm not fit enough for that. I've got the wrong body shape for that and I'm too old for that.
1:11All I had left was lawn balls and I think it's gone now. Well, I would maybe look into breakdancing if I was you because there's - Breaking, breaking. I'm a B-boy. I'm a B-boy. Come on, get with the program. I'll let people draw their own conclusions from that. I can kangaroo hop like the best of them. You know, the field seems wide open there. I think you could inject a little bit of Phillips flair into the routine. Can I say, Dr. Rachel Gunn or Ray Gunn, is there a better name to be born with the other Shorten and Ray Gunn? I mean, that's just, you know, Skofie's not going to work for it, you know.
1:43Ampage, maybe you'll get away with, I'm not sure. But it's kind of the, Ray Gunn's brilliant. I mean, it's kind of, you pay for it, surely. It is excellent. Yeah. No, credit where it's due, that is an outstanding name. I am very jealous of that. It's a bit like the Homer Simpson when he changed his name to Max Power. It's a very cool name. Apparently, he got the idea from a hairdryer. so it was there you go can I say the old Max Headroom thing completely passed me by for a few years I didn't they got no sense of why it was Max Headroom so one day many years ago I'm happy to say but what sort of on the on top of my pockets I was like oh now that was yeah you know when you late to a joke you kind of everyone's already known that for age I'm just getting it yeah no well scarily yes I do know that sensation and I know it more frequently than it than is exactly exactly Exactly.
2:31Without doxing ourselves any further, let's get on with some questions from our listeners. You'll like this one. This is from Dave. You won't like it actually for the reason you think you're going to like it. Dave's just funny. So he says, gents, Dave here. I have some questions for the pod machine. I like the pod machine around. I keep telling you. They do. Context, says Dave. One of the first investing books I read was Motivated Money by one Peter Thornhill. Subsequently, I have some LICs in my portfolio before I discovered ETFs. He says, which now make up a much larger percentage of my portfolio.
3:03Unlike Mr. Thornhill, I'm in my mid-30s, bastard, and still 20 years away from a planned retirement, which has made me question the position of LICs in our portfolio. Now, I will stop here and say LIC is listed investment company. We'll get back to that, but just if people are wondering. I mean, they do as advertised, says Dave. They provide smooth and consistent dividends twice a year, slightly increasing as IDRP, said dividends. DIP being Dividend Reinvestment Plan, with Charlie Munger's first rule of compounding ringing in my ears. I've let them do their thing for years. However, throughout these years, they have been underperforming my index-based ETFs.
3:43No surprise, he says in brackets, and I perhaps don't appreciate the smooth income, as my wife and I both have full-time jobs and will continue to do so for some time. He says, we have kids. They're cute, but expensive. We know that. I feel I may do better in the long term by cutting them loose, the LICs, not the kids, and reinvesting in said index-based ETFs. I understand you can't give personal advice, so my question is broadly related to LICs. Do you think they hold a place in portfolios of someone who has a long runway to retirement? He's got a couple of other questions, but we'll stop there.
4:20It's a really good question, mate. Once upon a time, LICs were all there were because ETFs didn't exist. And so if you wanted a market-listed kind of portfolio approach, some effectively just shadow indexing, others trying to be more active. But either way, if you either send your money to a managed fund, which meant sending you a check and hoping to get it back, or you could buy an LIC, which, as it suggests, listed investment company. That's kind of the point. We should say, too, listed investment companies are a little bit different to managed funds because a fund can take whatever money you want.
4:49And LIC is limited to the amount of shares that are already on issue. So they can issue more shares, of course, but it's not quite the same as a managed fund or ETF from that perspective. It's a sort of closed end fund. In other words, they're not taking in more money. What do you think, mate? LICs, do they have a role? Are they better or worse than ETFs? Are they should sit beside ETFs? Are they horses for courses? What are your thoughts on our acronym soup of LICs and ETFs? I'm going to go with my standard frustrating answer of it depends. So that's what you're going to say. Well, you've got them roughly, right?
5:20So, you know, it's not a big deal. I mean, they served a wonderful purpose. I used to be a much bigger advocate for it back in the day, but it's hard to compete against something that is by design structurally going to match the index and tends to have much lower fees associated with it. So there is the potential that you don't have with an ETF where the person managing the capital outperforms the market. Yeah. But to Dave's point, like they haven't done well lately. Is that an anomaly? Will things sort of mean revert over time? Will we see a couple of listed investment companies go on to just smash the index over the coming years?
6:00Yeah, maybe. But it's hard to handicap those odds. Like what, how do you figure that out in advance? And the more, the reality is the more you hope to beat the index by, the more you've got to deviate by the, from the index. which is kind of what you have to do just to put yourself in that position but the reverse is also true in the sense that the more chance you have of underperforming the index as well so it's essentially a key person risk here is how good are they or them and the team and who knows so it's hard I tend to think for all of those reasons they're not as relevant as they once were there's a few of them out there and a lot of them not very well known I'm drawing blanks on even some of the better known ones because they have become a - Argo.
6:47Argo is what I was thinking of. Yeah. I just think if what you want is a low effort exposure to equities, just go to the ETF. Maybe if you have a very high conviction in the people running the listed investment company and they've got a long history of doing it. Again, it's not going to be one of those things. well, path A was Ferraris and palaces and path B is living in a straw hut under a bridge. You know, they're both going to be okay. But I just kind of feel as though one is less risky and cheaper and probably better as a consequence of all of that. Yeah, I'm going to say it depends as well, mate, from a different perspective, actually.
7:39Two of the best known companies, which aren't strictly LICs in the accepted form of the word, but also aren't massively different, are Berkshire Hathaway and Sop Hats. And I own shares in both of those. Now, they're not LICs in the sense that a traditional LIC is just a structure for an equity portfolio. So an AFIC or an Argo, all they do is to take the money. They invest that money in a range of shares, largely matching, trying to beat the index by a little bit normally. They would probably say they're more active than I'm implying, but a little bit of active, a little bit of passive, and you send the money, or they have the money.
8:13They invested in equity portfolios, that's all they do. Now, Sol Pattinson Berkshire don't have core businesses in themselves. Sol Pattinson used to be a chemist, or still is, but they don't own it anymore. Sol Pattinson, as an entity, doesn't do anything. Neither does Berkshire. So in that sense, it's a listed investment company. In another sense, though, they have a combination of wholly owned businesses, controlling stakes, minority stakes, and then a genuine hands-off equity portfolio. And both those companies are the same in that sense. So, is Solpats an investment company? Yeah. Is it an LIC in the traditional sense?
8:44No. So, I will say it depends from that perspective. Ram, I think your point is valid. If you're going for passive index matching performance, go with the one that's going to match the index by definition. If you want outperformance, would you choose an LIC? I guess, same reason by managed fund. So, if you want to go by managed fund, LIC is a very reasonable alternative. Include them in the same group and say, well, do I match the index with ETF? Do I try and beat the market with someone else's management? And that can be either sending your money to Magellan or Platinum or someone, or it can be buying shares in an LIC.
9:18Different structures, different returns, different expectations, as Andrew says, check the ETF or the LIC and see what it does and see what you're hoping for. But yeah, I don't own any LICs with the exception, as I said, of Berkshire and Solpats, if you want to call them that. but they are really kind of business managers and owners rather than pure hands-off equity portfolios in an LLC sense. So I would absolutely also go ETFs rather than LLCs personally. Gosh, I'm saving a bit of a Google on Argo. I haven't looked at them for a while. They've really not kept up with the index, have they? No, and this is the challenge of – I don't want to say Argo is a shadow indexer but you'll find that what they try to do is buy the index effectively with slightly overweight, underweight positions and certain things.
10:00So they might say, well, I like that bank rather than that bank, or I'll have a little bit more of the banks or a little bit less of the banks. It's almost that kind of index plus or minus a bit to try and outperform. That's fine, but you're paying active. To be fair, the two of the fees aren't massive. Generally speaking, LIC fees are lower than managed fund fees. So again, if you've got the same investor, you'd rather run an LIC than a managed fund because you're going to keep more of the proceeds. But do you think they're going to beat the market? The other thing I will say too, mate, about history, this is really tough because it's hard for individuals normally to work this out.
10:29But just because a brand or a fund has done well, if the person who has run that fund or people who've run that fund over time are no longer there, then what's the fund? You know, if Magellan, just pick a name, right? If I run Magellan and I leave and Andrew takes over Magellan and he leaves and then someone else takes over Magellan, Magellan's track record over the past 15 years is probably irrelevant. I mean, unless the people coming through are carbon copies or close enough to it, then you kind of got to ask yourself whether the fund itself or even the business itself is worth following after that change.
11:00I'm not saying it won't be. I'm just saying you literally don't know what the new manager will do, let alone what an existing manager will do either way. Were they lucky? Were they unlucky? So there are meaningful degrees of difficulty with any of that sort of stuff. That's why ETFs are just simpler and easier. You know what you're getting, right? You're going to get the market return better or worse. Well, you guarantee that you don't know what the market return will be, but you're guaranteed to get it. Exactly. Less a tiny amount for fees, but yes. Less a little amount for fees. And history would suggest that over a reasonable amount of time, it's probably okay.
11:27It's going to be the best or very close to the best asset class over a long period of time. So it's a bit of a no-brainer. Mate, let's go to Dave's second question. He asked about franking credits. We talked about the crystal ball the other day. This leads me to my next question, says Dave. Franking credits, which is what the LLC has hanged their hat on. understanding that it was talked about being scrapped a few federal elections ago he says not mentioning parties as scott i believe both major parties are as bad as each other but just to immediately contradict myself as a queensland resident i am startled by the recklessness of the current government spending close brackets i'm of the belief he says they will eventually be rid of as the generation slash voter base who heavily relies on them literally dies away.
12:10My hazy crystal ball says 2038 will be etched on the franking credits tombstone. Do you guys agree they remain endangered? If so, what year do your crystal balls say they will become extinct? I don't think it will anytime soon. It's just because as that particular government found out, it's political suicide. So you just don't like, you put your hand on the stove, you go ouch and if you've got half a brain you don't do it again now when i say half a brain i mean a political brain which is very different to a normal brain and there might be other very good reasons to get rid of it or not i don't want to get into that debate but but what we do know is that it's going to take an incredibly brave government to do that or one that just has such a mandate overwhelming mandate and position of uh strength that that they that they can put some unpopular things through because it was very popular.
13:10It's extraordinarily, maybe it's different when the boomers aren't as numerous, but then you just get the next wave. I was going to say, yes, we'll retire at some point. Well, I'm over-ranking credits. How come dad and mom got it? Why can't I get it? So this is the thing I have struggled with for much of my adult life is recognizing that there are a lot of really dumb things there, but they're still not going to change, not because they don't make a huge amount of sense, but because there's just an incredible amount of institutional inertia in things. And really dumb things can last for very, very, very long periods of time.
13:47I mean, look, here's a random example out of left field. Look at the current voting. We're coming up to the most important elections on the planet really in November. And the electoral college system is madness. I don't think you find any sort of political scientist who will go, yeah, this is a sensible system. Like the unintended consequences is just madness. Now ask yourself this. And I don't think that's a controversial statement for anyone who's ever looked at various different approaches to things. But ask yourself this. How long is that likely to last? And I would say to the end of the Republic.
14:20Like it's set in stone. Like as dumb as it is. Because no one with the power is going to give it up. No way. No way. And same with ranking credits. So I'm going to just redefine our terms a little bit, Dave, if you don't mind. And Ram, you kind of alluded to this, but I wanted to be really clear. So the shortened opposition took a policy to the election in 2019, which was not to get rid of franking credits, but to get rid of franking credit refunds specifically. And so I think it's worth breaking this down. Franking credits is just the idea of not being double taxed. The franking credit refund is if the company paid more tax than you're eligible for, you get the extra money back.
14:56the tax they paid effectively on your behalf as a shareholder, you get that back from the government, hence the franking credit refund. Now, for those interested, by the way, a quick plug only because it's easier than explaining it now. Google why Bill Shorten was right and wrong on franking credits. I wrote an article back in 2019 about it, if you want to kind of understand what's going on there in terms of the credits and the refunds. Dave, I don't suspect it's going to the 20... Oh, gosh. 20... I don't know. I can't remember. I have to look at it out. Went to one of the elections promising to get rid of Novator leasing and salary packaging.
15:38And McMillan Shakespeare shares got smashed. And then, of course, the government lost the elections. Never been talked about then opposition. Never been talked about again. And I think to Ram's point, that's probably likely, right? I don't think anyone's coming for your frank and credit refunds anytime soon. I would suggest, though, mate, your view about the end of frank and credits is probably closer to franking credit refunds rather than franking credits themselves. Now, what would that mean? It would mean that if you've got dividends, if you're eligible for franking credits and they're more than your tax payable, if you don't get a refund, you'll still pay zero tax.
16:08At the moment, you don't even pay zero tax. You get money back. You pay negative tax effectively. I have views on that, which I won't go into now, but I think the franking credits are here to stay anyway because no one's really talking about getting rid of them. Shorten's want to get rid of the refunds. I would bet against them being removed. Even if they're not removed, I still think foreign credits will stay for as long as I'm alive and probably well past that. And I hope that's at least 2038. And I would suspect, again, no promises, right? But I personally, it's not the top 15 things I think are going to happen in my lifetime in terms of impact on my financial life.
16:44There's also the other argument to be made of, let's say, let's just take the counterfactual. Let's say it does happen. And you go, okay, does that undermine the validity of a dividend-based strategy? And it's like, well, clearly it's not as good, but you'll probably find it's still one of the most superior options. You're paying zero tax where rent or savings or something else would otherwise have you pay taxes. It's still a much better choice. Yep. Yes, that's good. Okay, last one. Finally, I am also a sole Pat's investor. Just wondering why they don't have a dividend reinvestment plan option.
17:20I know Scott is a fan and investor of them, so I thought he might be able to shed some light on it. Cheers for your educated rants every week. Excess pressure must be relieved or we would literally explode. In brackets, not backed by any medical literature. Close bracket. Thank you, Dave. Great, great questions, mate. Love the sense of hearing those. Yeah, awesome. Funnily enough, this question was sent to us a month ago yesterday. So we recorded this on Thursday. So Wednesday this week, Sopas actually announced a DRP, which is not why I'm doing this question today. It was just the next in line.
17:51But it turns out they now have a DRP option. You can elect to have your dividends used to purchase more shares rather than take it in cash. Dave, you would know this, but for our listeners, if you do choose a dividend reinvestment plan, you still have to pay tax on the dividend. Even though you don't receive the cash, the ATO considers it taxable income because it is. You're effectively just cutting out the middleman and saying, I get the cash and send it back to the company for more shares. You're just saying to the company, you know, just send me more shares. It is still income you still have to pay tax on.
18:18So just be careful with any DRP. They're not bad. They're great. Just make sure you've got the cash flow to pay the tax on top of the shares that you're being issued as part of that DRP. I've gone off them. I've gone off them. Off DRPs? Yeah, I have. Well, like I said, let's back up. I love the idea of - Let's walk back to the outlandish stuff. Shall we? Yes, I go. Well, you've got to start out with a controversial statement. That's right. Now I've got your attention. So it's great because it's forced compounding, right? Yeah. Like that's really cool. There's a couple of problems with it though.
18:53One, they are a price agnostic buyer. So whether you might consider the shares good value or bad, they'll buy it either way. So you might have 20 stocks in your portfolio. The question is, you've got some cash coming in. Do I invest it back into the company that delivered it or do I invest it somewhere else? And the purely rational view would be, well, invest it in the best risk-adjusted option that's in front of you. It might not be that particular company. So you can do it manually, just not done for you. People of advocates will say, yeah, but you saved some brokerage. I just think that's just sort of, yeah.
19:28But really, is this the difference between you being a successful investor or not? Is saving$20 on a trade every six months for a reinvestment? I don't think it's going to move the needle in any meaningful way. So there is that. It's probably not much of a problem if you're prepared about it, but it is a nightmare when it like you wait 30 years and then do your tax. It's like, oh, my God, that is, you know, that is painful because there is a lot of different, like working out the cost basis is a bit of a hassle. So there is that as well. The other thing is too, you've got to ask where the shares come from.
20:07Now, naively, you might assume that they actually just buy the shares on market and then they distribute it back. But often they don't. Often they just issue new shares. So there is a dilutive elements to those that don't participate in it now. Again, I'm probably being a little bit fastidious because it's not going to be material over sort of, you know, the medium or not too long-y term. But there is that as well. um uh i i just think it it is better to if you want the to reinvest it i prefer having a little bit of extra control myself and directing it to the place that that i like now having said all of that i would never criticize anyone who did it because it is it's it's the advantage it's no brain it's no brainer it's easy it happens automatically and it forces me to compound So is that the worst thing in the world?
21:02No, not really. But, you know, personally, I'll take the cash and then I'll decide what to do. It's not the worst and it's not the best, right? And that's kind of important. Yeah, so I'm with you on both those, Ram. I think DRPs are great. They're just not the best option for me and for other people who want to make their own choices. So the worst thing would be to not do a DRP and then spend the dividends, right? That's killing your return. So reinvest them one way or the other. either manually or automatically. If you need to or you want to automatically because it just makes your life easier and knock yourself out.
21:35To Ram's point, you've got 20 companies. Reinvesting in dividends are the 20th best idea in your portfolio is probably some optimal in terms of long-term returns. That being said, and I also agree with you on the share wish that's actually made. I'm a Solpac shareholder. I love the guys at Solpac. They do a great job. I don't want them to do a DRP for exactly that reason. I think it's, well... It's a great way from their point of view. I'll fill it out before you comment. Just because it's sort of like, my choice is I take cash out of the company treasury and I send it to you or I print up a share out of thin air.
22:10So I get to keep the cash. Yeah. Right? So it's sort of like. When you say I, the company gets to keep it to reuse. The managers don't get the money, but so we're really clear. Oh, sorry. Sorry. Absolutely. The company gets to keep the cash. Now, if the company has, again, incredible investment opportunities, maybe that's the right way to go. But then again, I tend to be the kind of person who says, well, just don't pay a dividend. Don't pay the dividend, correct. Exactly right. But I've had this conversation with enough CEOs to know that it's like, well, that's all good and well, and I agree.
22:39But the reality is, and any CEO that happens to be listening, just understand this. When you decide to start paying a dividend, you can't walk that back easily. It is a one-way decision. Correct. It tends to be because you will get all kinds of grief if you give something and then take it away. So I just sort of don't start it until you're absolutely certain you want to do it. Sorry, mate. No, it's perfect, mate. It's lovely. So I'm not in favour of the DIP. I'd rather they didn't do it. Now, shareholders want it, a lot of them, because they are. If you buy Solpats, I'm not a massively conservative investor, but a lot of Solpats shareholders are.
23:15They are, as I said, a proxy LIC. They've been around the second-holst company on the ASX. they are there largely because, you know, and they've operated as an investment company that really do prioritize shareholder returns. And that's wonderful. And people who know that are like, well, I'll just send them a solid pass of my money and they can just take care of it for me. And that's great too. And then they say, well, I don't really want the dividend. Can you just have a DRP? Like you're like, Dave's asking, can you just have a DRP to make my life easier? So the company's kind of doing what they've been effectively asked to do, right?
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23:41The good thing about this one, the really best thing made is there's no discount on the DRP, which I love. Oh, I was going to mention, yes. Yeah, so some companies normally give 2 % or 3 % or 5 % discount as an incentive, right? And that's where the company is really saying to you, I really, really want your money. Please, here's a good idea of not to do it. Soapat's kind of like, if you want it, you can use it. Now, it's still the issue with more shares, which I don't love, I've got to say. I haven't spoken to them about it, but I would happily tell them I don't love it. I'd rather they didn't do it.
24:05For that reason, I don't want to be deluded. I don't want to... I mean, I will say too, mate, it's probably a company I would be happy to reinvest my dividends in directly because they're always going to do great. Is it the best idea all the time? No, but Solpats and Solpats, right? Yeah, as I said, it's not the worst decision, right? Yeah. But I'm really, really glad there's no discount because they're not saying I want to incentivize you. They're just like, let's hear if you want it. If you want to sign up, if you want to say brokerage and hassle, knock yourself out. Otherwise, don't do it. We don't care.
24:29They'll get a bit of money from it. And again, Solpats has actually had a really great long-term record of capital management, right? So I'm also happy that they're going to use that money well. But as you say, it's more about the dividend than not. Last one quickly, massive tangent, But Solpats is only, I think it's less than 12 months now, away from being the first dividend aristocrat in Australia. Oh, really? Okay. Now, there's no official - Never gone backwards. Is that the definition? I'd have to look it up. I'll talk you to look it up. Okay. There's no official definition, by the way, of dividend aristocrat.
25:01Like there's no official definition of recession. We just all make it up and agree with it, like corrections and bear markets. Generally speaking, in the US, apparently there's 60-odd companies. And you've got to have either not decreased or continually increased. I can't remember which. Andrew's going to look it up for me. You dividend for 25 straight years. Solpath, is it 24 years? 25 years. There you go. And is it not reduced or always increased? Consistent dividend growth over 25 years. There you go. Okay, cool. So this is a US thing, but it's also saying market index inclusion as well. But yeah, basically, if you've paid a dividend for 25 years and you've never reduced or cut that dividend, then you're a dividend aristocrat.
25:36There you go. And again, it doesn't really matter. other than it's notable because there are none in Australia. 60-odd in the US, as I said, and the S &P 500. None in Australia. Solpats will be the first one to get there, I think, sometime in the next 12 months. Now, speaking of Ram's point, that's a double-edged sword, right? They'll be very proud of it. But you reckon by the time they get 26, 27 years, they're going to cut the dividend at any point to lose that title? Absolutely not. So they made a road for the home back a little bit. The dividend yield is pretty conservative. I don't think there's any chance any time soon they're going to have to cut the dividend for financial reasons.
26:05But even if they wanted to now, Now they'd probably feel like they couldn't because once you're in that club, it's a bit like the Hotel California. You can check it anytime you like, but you can never leave. So once people buy it because it's dividend aristocrat, that means a decent portion of their shareholder base is expecting you to do that as you say, mate, and that's going to be the story, I think. Yep. Yep. There's a few close contenders that is going to be there. Yeah, there's a couple behind them. Yeah. Brickworks, by the way, is not far away either, I think. Wow. Exactly. But even the surprising ones in there as well, the surprising exclusions.
26:37So I kind of thought, I bet your Woolies would be close. But they've had a dividend drop. Actually, as recently as 2020, they pulled back their dividends. So there it goes, you know, 23 years of good work under the sort of gone. Transurban would have to be close too, I'm going to say. But then, though, they've had a dip in a couple of – so it's a very hard thing to maintain. It's really unusual, yeah. The banks during the UFC, so they're all out. So they're all gone. COVID crash, sorry, yeah. Yes, yeah. And the GFC. Yes, of course, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
27:11For me, it's more, I mean, the fact that you're able to do it does say something. It does. You can get into the high finance debates as to whether that's the most appropriate use of capital, and I fully recognize that. But just to have that as an option for a quarter of a century that you were able to do that. And let's think about the number of calamities and recessions and sell-offs and crashes over that period of time. Australia companies went broke. You know, it's generally – the past is no guarantee of the future, as every prospectus will tell you, rightly so. But it is noteworthy. I'll say that much.
27:51Yeah, I think that's right. And again, we've said this lots of times, but if the worst thing in the world is you feel obliged to keep paying a dividend as a company, that's a pretty good result. And it's going to be hard to get a terrible result from a company that's in that position. And the other thing is it talks a lot about their culture as well. There's another thing I'll say, but it's not only the performance, but a business that does that is, again, not going to be the most aggressive business in the world because they're paying a dividend that's rising every year. They're foregoing the opportunity to use that cash for something else.
28:18So have they maximized their potential return? Almost certainly not. Have they given shareholders a very good return for a long time? They care about it. They think it's important. They understand the value of it. Yeah. And that kind of just infers a shareholder friendliness that, I'm not saying other companies lack, but this is more concrete evidence, I think, of that desire to do these things regularly. And if you're an investor who values that, it's just a certain thing, nothing's certain. That expectation of cash flow, you're probably in a better position with a derivative risk rate than something else.
28:48One other point I'll make too is that one of the better things about a dividend policy is it acts as a restraint on management hubris it really does and that shouldn't be funny but it you know it's like it is because as i say once you make that commitment to shareholders it's not easily taken away so when you look at so it's paid out of well should hopefully you've either got a very strong balance sheet or it's paid out of free cash flow so this is the money that's left after everything's been paid for and you've made necessary ongoing investments in maintenance, capex, and these kinds of things.
29:21The kind of money you need to spend just to keep the business going. You're in the local fish and chip shop. Turns out the deep fryer needs replacing. So we've paid for that. We've paid for everything else. We've paid our taxes. We've paid our costs. Oh, this is what's left over. That's what dividends get sort of paid out of. Now, if you've committed to sort of paying out half of that to shareholders, there's less money burning a hole in your pocket. And there's something that's extraordinarily dangerous about a management team with a pile of cash sitting in front of them as it is for any you because you're just like oh i guess we could do that and and hope springs eternal and again it's not that it's like a lot of a lot of companies make really good use of that cash but probably more companies almost certainly more companies just go and waste it not not because they're evil or they're stupid just because that's the nature of business and it it just it means that when you do make investment decisions as a board and a management team, you've got less of a temptation.
30:18You've got to be far more certain of it because there's just less of it, right? And you have to be very certain of it if you're actually going to go and say to your shareholders, actually, we're not going to pay it or we're going to cut the dividend this year. But don't trust me, it's going to be totally worth it. So it is good for that reason. Yeah, I agree. Yeah. And I think, yes, you have the money. Data have the money. Again, you want to be able to trust the management of the business you own, like almost by definition, but it doesn't hurt that the temptation is somehow managed by the dividend policy.
30:49Just while we're on dividends, I know I've ranted about this before, but I'll do a mini rant. Go again. Which is the number of times I come across, because we do a lot of small mid-cap focus kind of stuff on Strongman, and you're having a chat to the CEO, and they'll say, proudly, oh, we're going to start paying a dividend. It's like, wait a sec, you're a growth company. you just raised money and you've got debt on the why and and like cutting through the spin because the investment bank has told us it'd be good for the share price yeah which is the most craven sort of cynical like short small-minded approach and like really i don't think any investor worth their salt's going to buy that no one is buying a small cap company as as like some dependable long-term dividend play.
31:35No, it's growth. It's all about growth. So by all means, pay it when you've got nothing else to do with it. But you guys have just spent the last 30 minutes telling me about all the growth ambitions that you've got and how much it's going to cost and how great it's going to be. So stop paying a dividend. But they do. And it's just like, I just don't get it. No, I hear. I hear. Completely agree.
32:02slash listener.
32:05Let's move on to another question from someone who's anonymous who says, please keep me anonymous. Good start. G'day, Scott and Andrew. As this is a finance and investing and government policy and Bitcoin and housing podcast, you spend most of your time discussing the latter half of one of Ram's favourite maxims, spend less than you earn and invest the difference. But I would be interested in getting your perspective on the earn part of that equation. Three questions for you. One, how would you balance the softer dimensions, e.g. enjoyment, culture, teammates, convenience, et cetera, with the financial elements, salary, benefits, et cetera, of a job?
32:43I'll read all three and we can go back to them. Two, at what point is pursuing a higher salary at the expense of those softer dimensions appropriate? And three, what would you do if you enjoyed your job and were a, quote, future leader, end quote, their words, not mine, at your current company, but it was a business in structural decline? He says, an ASX listed company, where revenue has declined at a KGAR of minus 3 % over the last seven years and profits are down 75 % in that time. Yeah, I love that. Acknowledging the grass is always greener and one should work to live rather than live to work, what frameworks have you utilised in your own careers and what sage, he says, and general advice would you give to the workers in your audience?
33:20Thanks, Anon. All right, so let's go through each one in part. We might want to wrap it up. How would you balance the softer and the harder dimension, the softer and the financial elements of a job, mate? Yeah, there's come up a few. We've talked about it a few times, so I won't labor the point. But other than to say it's very definitely a personal decision. There's no right or wrong. There's only right or wrong for you. And I personally increasingly value the softer things. There's a very sort of definitive level where I've just got to make sure I've got food on the table and a roof over my head.
33:58and to a level where I'm not completely stressed out about it. But once you – so it's easy to sort of say, well, I really value my free time while I'm living in a cardboard box under a bridge. I mean, it's – yeah, okay. But so beyond – up to a point, money matters a hell of a lot. And then I think the happiness utility diminishes rather quickly. And you only have to be in the circles of – I've dipped my toe into that just because I think when you're in finance, you sort of find yourself in circles that are well above your sort of natural station in life. And rich people, I can tell you, they're all miserable, right?
34:33As miserable as the rest of us. So yeah, I very much balance. I very much favor the soft stuff, definitely. Once you get above a certain threshold. Yep. I agree entirely with that, mate. The threshold is important. A couple of other things really quickly. one is depends on the point in time in your career remembering that compounding is a is a financial phenomenon that takes time so there is a time and a place i think i think you and on you ask about um the two parts of the quote i think the investing the difference thing needs to be part of it for me you've got to get yourself off your portfolio off to a start not not to make the most money ever just you know yes spend less than you earn yes have a quality of life um and then balance the current quality of life with the future quality of life?
35:23I think I'm not going to give you an easy answer because there's no easy answer to that question, but just that's the only other element I throw in is having enough left over to invest is really important. If you are going to get to a point where you can give up work, now, super is great for that and that's probably enough for most people, but a little bit extra is always useful, gives you more options, lets you retire earlier or stop working or work less earlier if you want to. The other thing I was going to - Oh, please. Go, go, go, go. I was going to say, you know, a really interesting example here is Buffett and Munger.
35:49So both incredibly successful, obviously, but Munger was nowhere near as rich as Buffett. And that was by choice, essentially. Munger just valued other things. But Buffett was just built differently, right? He's just got very, very basic requirements. And so everything just compounded for forever. Where Munger had other interests. And who's right, who's wrong? No one, really. They both made the decision that was right for them. and you could easily sort of, if you're too much of a purist, you could look at Munger and go, what an idiot, you know, all that wealth he gave up. I was like, well, was he that much of an idiot?
36:27Like he had a pretty good life and, you know, he wasn't short of a dollar. And at a point it just sort of gets, well, kind of pointless really. It's just like, yeah. So it's a nice contrast of two people very equally capable, you know, invested in the same thing. But percentage-wise, actually rather stark differences in their net wealth over their lifespans. And they both played it in a way that was appropriate to them. Yeah. I will say too, the last part of that, which doesn't include it in the quote, is things that you choose to value.
37:03I'm a very boring, simple man. Not as boring as Buffett. I hope he doesn't mind me saying that. He's not listening, so he doesn't care. He doesn't care. But I don't kind of need that much, right? And I kind of like some of the simpler things. I'd happily go camping rather than fly overseas. I'd love to ram off air. I'd buy the same pair of boots and the same style of jeans. I'd never get the chance to just replace them when they're done. I don't have that much in terms of needs. Now, I'm not saying I'm better or worse than anybody else. What I am saying is that lets me save more of my income because I don't have to go and spend the money on the things, right?
37:36If you're someone who gets value out of spending the money on the things, that's cool. Just know that that means your earning requirement will be higher than it otherwise might be. I think that's really important. Don't be a goldfish, basically. You know, don't grow to the side. You don't – if you find yourself in a bigger bowl, you don't have to fill that space. So true. You just – and again, I've got friends, associations, et cetera, who work in high finance and just paid ungodly amounts of money and they're stressed and they're unhappy and their marriages are falling apart and just like, no, I'm not trading places there.
38:10It's just, you know, yeah, I just, I think they're the kind of people who often sort of need to take stock of things and go, what's really valuable in your life? Because even though you get that big bonus at the end of the year and that big pay rise and that, well, it just goes into the latest, greatest toy and expensive hobby and you're really just, you're on a treadmill. And Carlyce and Homelone, right? They're the two. For all the other things we talk about, I'm talking about jeans and boots, it doesn't really matter. But the type of car you choose to drive and the value and location of your home are going to be stupidly important to your ability to save after tax income.
38:45And the amount of money you need to save, right? I have people who say to me, earning 200 grand a year in Sydney is not enough. And I don't know whether that's true or not. I don't live in Sydney and I'm not going to judge anybody. But what I would say is that's probably put some of the top 3 % of income earners. And they're saying they don't earn enough. At some point, that breaks down. Now, there are bigger policy issues we've talked about, as you rightly say, and on. We talk about other things, including government policy and other things. But at some point, you kind of go, okay, well, if that works, I'm not criticizing anyone.
39:09Go for it. Knock yourself out. But also, have a think about what you really need. And this is the rat race problem. So, how much do you need to earn? Well, if I want to have the car and the house and the private schools and the whatevers, X dollars. And the trade-off for that is stress, worry, relationship, break down, your kids don't know you. Again, if that's what you want to choose, go for it. For me, I'm very, very fortunate. I live in the regions. I work from home. I could probably double my salary if I moved to the city and worked for a big finance firm. Or maybe they wouldn't hire me. You can decide.
39:38But an equivalent role, I could easily double my money if I was able to get an equivalent role or something similar. I don't want that because I like working from home and I like the company I work for and I like the job I get to do. Which is an unsecking question, at what point is pursuing a higher salary at the expense of those softer dimensions appropriate? I would say I don't think it's unanswerable for me. You trade off the money with the misery, right? life's too short life is really too short again if you need the money go for it if you're going to use the money for a couple of years and put it away as a as a you know a genuine nest egg you know can compound for 40 years and you're 25 probably if you're in your 20s and you've you know you're enjoying the high life go for it knock yourself out at some point though when you've got kids and relationships other responsibilities i don't know how much more money well well i just answered the question if i got paid double would i take it no not if i not I've had to go move to the city, work from city, have a stressful job, whatever.
40:30Could I look for that job now? Yeah. Have I? No. So for me, it's at least 100%. I mean, at a million bucks, maybe we're talking about something. Maybe I'm going to put up with this out of life. Look, here's what's going to happen next year. But we finish the year with a million bucks, maybe. But I don't know, probably still not, honestly. But it's also a stage in life thing and a security thing. I'm more secure than I was when I was 25. So can I afford to throttle it back a bit? Yeah. So it's really difficult. What about you, mate? How much more would you need to get paid? Oh, fair bit. I mean, again, you've got to play that hand you're dealt.
41:01I was just thinking then of something you said reminded me of a guy I went to school with. Lovely bloke. But, you know, you never did that well academically. After school, he went and worked in the oil ring offshore. And dangerous work, lonely work, hard work. You're away from home for long periods of a time. but you get paid really well, right? Yeah, right. And he hated it, but he stuck it out for like four or five years. And this is going back. And he came back and he invested in what he knew, which was property. I haven't seen him for years. I'm sure he's like worth 10x what I'm worth. I'm sure he is.
41:41You know? Yeah. And so it's situational. So I could imagine someone like that at 21 potentially listening to this and us going, no, don't do something you hate. Yeah, that's right. It was like, well, I did it, but I did it deliberately for a set period of time. And I didn't take all that money and just, you know, blow it. I was very sensible with it. And I sacrificed, you know, a bit of extra free time and fun that I could have had in my 20s, but I set myself up for life. Now, the other people are going, yeah, but you're only 20 once, right? So you want to enjoy that. Again, it's a personal kind of question.
42:16There's no right way for it. Yeah, look, as for you ask me of my situation. Yeah, well, everyone's got a price. I say no. Terry Packer famously said, yeah, that's right. I say no, but, you know, there would be a price. Yeah, I'm commuting two hours to the city each way and I'm working 80 hours a week, you know. I'd like to think I would probably have the discipline to not expand the lifestyle too much and to do what my oil rig mate did, which is just like, okay, the plan is next three years, we're doing this, we're knocking the mortgage off, We're rapidly increasing our investments and then we're going to retire early.
42:55So there would be a point at which, as much as I agree with you, it's like, well, I'll pay you 500 grand a year. No, 600 grand a year. No. Well, let's be real. My price is below that already. So I've already said yes. So it's hard. It is. But think about the stuff you're giving up. The question about the career thing, mate, is really fascinating. I don't know the company and I don't know how likely it's turned around or not. I will say that I have never particularly enjoyed working for a company that's declining because it's just a really crap environment. People are being laid off. The results are rough.
43:33No one's winning. That sucks for morale at work and it probably makes you unhappy as a person. Now someone's going to work for declining companies, right? So I'm not being critical, but it's not much fun. I've been there. I think it's fine. I then moved to companies that are growing and it's a remarkably different thing. I would suspect that, you know, I'm not giving you career advice. I don't know who you are. I don't know who you work for. I don't know what your skills are. I don't know what industry you work in or, you know, what area your job is in. But if you are considered a future leader, I would presume it's because you've got skills, not in a Liam Neeson kind of way, but different sort of skills for those who like that reference.
44:10So I just kind of feel like, I mean, say you enjoy your job, right? So if you enjoy your job, then fine. I mean, there's no need to do anything other than that. You're probably not going to get the remuneration opportunities that you would get in a growing company because they're going to have more money to pay you with and be kind of paying up for growth and paying up for quality staff so they can grow. So maybe there's some remuneration upside. But if you enjoy the job, I would almost stop there. If you're not enjoying your job, I wouldn't stay at a declining company. I'd go and find a company that's growing.
44:37Ram? I think half the problem with a declining company is the lack of awareness from management that it's a planning company. That's true, too. Like, if you know what the situation is, you can manage that thing for a long time before it comes to terminal. And it's like the disappointment and frustration comes because, you know, Sue from accounts is yelling at, you know, Bob from sales, are you not getting enough in and we're not doing this? And it's this horrible environment where everyone's losing and no one's really losing for any specific reason, just that there's a relevancy that's no longer there in your product.
45:21Maybe the world has changed. Maybe a better competitor has come along. I don't know. It could be any number of things. But when it's sort of like, look, guys, we're selling pages. And every year that goes by, there's less and less that we're selling. And we know that's going to be the case. So listen, what we could do is we could try and gear up and get into something else and see if we can make a go of it or we just accept the inevitable. We all do our job the best that we can with what we've got, but we also understand that we're all out of a job in 10 years' time. But you take away a lot of the stress.
45:54We all get paid well. And there are some really good examples. I think I've mentioned it with Altria. It's a tobacco company that's done that relatively well. without getting into the ethics of it, you know, but they survived much longer than what you would imagine. If you look at global smoking rates, which have just fallen off a cliff wonderfully, right? Like a great trend. But if I had come back, if I got my time machine now and went back to shareholders and sort of said, this is your future, like your customers are shrinking, it would look very bad, but shareholders have done incredibly well because there was a cognizance from management that just acknowledged that, made investments elsewhere, minimized reinvestment in those areas, and ran for cash, paid out very high dividends on very low multiples, which compounded incredibly well.
46:47I'm sure there are plenty of people happy as pigs in mud in that particular company, even though it was notionally declining. So it depends. Nice. Let's go to another question, mate. This one comes from Steve. We've got some jobs. Just give us some tasks. Okay. Hi, guys. Love your show. Before we begin, I would love to hear Scott say, really, really, really. So there you go. Really, really, really. And Andrew say - That's going to be sampled somewhere, by the way. Here's your one, mate. And Andrew say, it depends. It's like, well, I already delivered a preemptive delivery there, but it depends.
47:28There we go. Now that I've got my fix, please continue, he says. I'm a massive fan of both Warren and Charlie But without sounding negative I'd love to discuss the worst investments of Buffett And his mindset Sometimes we learn more from our mistakes than our winners As with his recent offloading of half of his Apple shares I remember about two years ago When he offloaded them only to say it was a mistake I can appreciate his company was too top heavy I also recall years ago he bought new airlines And then stated it was a massive mistake Only to do it again I also remember, says Steve Him saying the biggest mistakes he made were the ones we're not aware of.
48:05What are your thoughts about his massive cash pile that Berkshire has accumulated and the vast amounts of gains he has missed just sitting on the sidelines when he had opportunities during COVID and other dips to use that money? Is he overly cautious? Too old? Or should he move aside? Or perhaps the wise Al knows a thing or two about an expensive market with little value. I saw a recent clip of Bill Gates and he acknowledged when he was at Microsoft that not buying Android was the single biggest mistake he made. Charlie admitted to Alibaba as a massive mistake. I think it would be an interesting discussion.
48:39Fool on. Cheers, Steve. So right at the get-go, I always instantly, there's an appeal for me whenever I hear an investor lean into their mistakes and talk about them. I just think, one, if you don't have any mistakes, you're a liar. so you're instantly I don't want to listen to what you've got to say because you're a charlatan and a liar and I'll call that out every day of the week right because no one's that good there goes my next line was going to be I'd like to talk about mistakes but haven't made any yet I guess I'll leave that one alone it's just it's such an like it's amazing how many people get away with it it's just no so there is that the other thing you've got to remember too is that it's, we touched on this a few weeks back, but what, got to choose what you're wanting to optimize for here.
49:33Do you as an investor want to optimize for maximum returns? Sounds like it's the way to go. Or do you want to maximize for survivability? Now, when you optimize for the former, you can do much better, but you might not exist in a few years time. Financially. Death or glory is not a great motto for investing. and because of the nature of survivorship bias the only ones you hear about are the ones that rolled the dice and won yes and then they're the ones who write the biographies and the business case to look how smart this person they took it all and they bet it on them musk is a good example of this right from the paypal days took that folded it all in and just just kept on doubling down doubling down and it was really successful you don't see the silent evidence which is all the people who did that and and and never made it there are people out there i just again it's just like law of statistics that there'll be people out there that are far smarter than buffett and that had you know periods where they just like put him in the shade massively but you know they lost their history because they did it for 10 years and then they blew up you know and buffett buffett knows this so and he's been this accusation has been leveled at him a million times like i don't really care i'm sure i could do a lot more with with that cash file i'm sure i could do even better with a bit of leverage.
50:52I'm sure I could do even better by going further out the risk spectrum, investing in some things with a little bit more spice on them. But that's not his focus. It's deliberately part of the strategy. He is optimizing for survivability and longevity. And history shows how wonderful that is. It's classic hair and the tortoise stuff. It's exactly what it is. And so I don't think it's the greatest tragedy in the world. when I tip off this mortal coil and I'm on my deathbed. And the last thing I'm going to be doing is looking at my portfolio returns. But if I were on my deathbed doing that and I'm a few percent below what may or could have, would have been, I've got no regrets.
51:40Honestly, I'd be a little bit disappointed. But even if it turned out I was like one or two percent below the index, well, it kind of sucks. but I've still made money like in absolute terms I've still done well right and and I just I just think the longer I've done this the more I am convinced of this is that is what you want to optimize for is just to be around I don't know when the next recession's coming I don't know when the next bear market's happening I don't know which ticking time bomb I've got in my portfolio and I'm convinced there's at least two or three of them I don't know I just don't know which ones they are.
52:13I'll tell you in a few years time when they go to zero or they drop 50%, like they're just, they're guaranteed to be out there. So what do you, how do you, how do you rationally handle that? Knowing that that is, is, is inevitably true. Will you just say that when it happens, I am able to pick myself up, dust myself off and, and, and carry on. I don't ever want to be in the position where even if I could have had a really good couple of years, better years than I otherwise would have had where it's just like something happens and back to square one right you're a 50 nearly 50 year old man and you're at square one again it's like i i do not want that i absolutely do not want that and and i would imagine i'm not going to speak for buffett but i'm sure that's what he's that's what he's doing too much has been made of this cash pile because everyone goes oh he knows he knows something's happening oh i've had so many people do that he doesn't he doesn't and And all he knows is he looks at what's on his desk.
53:13Don't like that. Don't like that. Don't like, I guess I'll do nothing. He calls investing a no-strike game. So he's just sitting there. He's like, they can keep tossing the ball and then go straight through to the catcher as many times. He doesn't care. He'll wait for the fat pitch, even if it means sitting on a lazy pile of cash, even if it means underperforming the index for a period of time. So it's not that he's got any prescience as to what's happening with the S &P. It's just like, nothing really tickles my fancy. And when it does, I'll do it then. And here's the funny thing. When the GFC happened, his phone was ringing off the hook.
53:50Yes, exactly. He called the shots, right? Did he know the timing, the circumstance? No, but he called the shots, right? And he put himself in that position. And I imagine whenever the next calamity comes along, the same thing will happen. And he will pick up things for pennies on the dollar and he'll be back. And by the way, even if I would suggest this because he's getting on, but I would imagine he has built such an incredible culture and spent such an incredible amount of time thinking about succession at the rest of it. I dare say that the, the, the generals in charge will pretty much act the same way.
54:28Yeah. No, that's right. I mean, there is no next Warren Buffett. So expecting that there'll be those big calls to make are probably past it. We talk about LACs. Berkshire is an operating business as much as an investment business. When Buffett dies, they'll probably almost certainly pay a dividend, I would suggest, speaking of using up some of that capital. I'm a little bit surprised Buffett hasn't done it already, if only just set up his successor for something. Just because they've got so much. You're right about there's nothing in that cash pile. No one's telling you anything. But at some point, Buffett's game is awful.
55:00or someone's going to have to say, actually, we've got more cash than we can use. Even if it takes 10 years to find a deal, that's going to be a fantastically good deal to make up for the opportunity cost of holding that cash. So I suspect at some point they're going to have to do that. In terms of mistakes, look, I think we all know mistakes in hindsight, right? So I'm sure Buffett wanted to or would have happily spent more money in COVID. How did the rebound not been as quick as it was? Remember, this was the fastest bear market recovery in history. So we say he missed an opportunity. he did but he's not exactly a market timer right and even if he was he wouldn't be able to get it right but my point is he wasn't like oh wait as soon as it drops a bit i'll press push the trigger um there were no deals presented to him in part probably because it was so quick no one was that distressed at that point um everyone missed it by the way like right it was it was a v-shaped it was literally a v-shaped recovery it was incredible um apple again time will tell whether he did the right thing or not airlines was a mistake he said that himself many times um what do we learn from Buffett's mistake?
55:57He also bought a boot company which went completely stone motherless broke. No, beer or paint? Boot or paint? One or two? No, it's shoes. It was shoes. Wall shoes. Dexter. Dexter, is that right? Yeah, that sounds about right. He didn't reckon on the very low labor and input costs from overseas markets, which kind of undid him. So, you know, I mean, what do we learn from his mistakes? Everyone's fallible. That, as Ram said, survivability wins. I mentioned Buffett and leverage all the time. My other one is that he talked about people, I think it was the long-term capital management guys. He said they gambled what they had and needed for what they didn't have and didn't need.
56:36I think that's a beautiful sentiment, right? It's exactly what you just said around about surviving first and then going from there. What else to learn from Buffett's mistakes? He's been relatively few, quite honestly. Should he have put that money to work? Yes. Is he waiting for something? No.
56:54I'll tell you something you can learn from it. Again, it's that idea when he does make mistakes, it's not existential. Again, it's that there's nothing wrong with failing because there's no avoiding failing. But when you fail and you're bruised as opposed to in a coffin, there's a big difference. There is a very big difference between those two. And I would argue anyone out there managing their own portfolio, if you're not making any big mistakes, you're not taking enough risk. Yeah. I would say. I mean, let me elaborate on that. Because if you're not making any major mistakes, you're taking very, very little risk.
57:34And that's going to suggest that you probably don't have much upside. Because that is the devil's bargain that you have entered into here. If you want the big gains, you've got to take on a lot of risk. If you don't want a lot of risk, that's cool too. But you're not going to get very big gains. So, you know, I would very actually look at myself in the mirror pretty closely. If I'm a stock picker and I've been doing it for years and I've only made lots of little mistakes, I would almost guarantee with all those little mistakes and nothing really massively happens, like your overall returns counterintuitively probably aren't that good.
58:10as opposed to the, you know, the David Gardner or whoever is like had, you know, a dozen things dropped to 90 % or whatever, but it's still absolutely smashed it because of the ones that did work out, right? It's the portfolio approach that you've got to take. So there's no, any one, any one mistake that Buffett makes and he'll make him every, every random annual report, he'll tell you about the mistakes that he's made, but they're just, you know, footnotes in history because they get overshadowed by the mistakes he didn't make and by the successes he did have. Did I mention this example recently?
58:49Stop me if I did about PIMCO's strategic mediocrity. I don't think so. No. I came across this recently. So I don't know if they still do it, but PIMCO had this concept of strategic mediocrity, a deliberate investment strategy that prioritized consistent long-term performance over short-term outperformance. So in any given period, they were never really among the top performing money managers. But in every 10-year period, they were always amongst the top performing managers. Yeah, that's cool. And that is, again, the hare and the tortoise, right? It's the same kind of thing. It's like – and I would – other people, other studies have sort of shown this.
59:27It's almost – if you're at the top of the list in one year, you're probably not the next year. and if every now and again you are sort of at the top of the list, you probably don't exist after 10 years because you've gotten – it's like the ASX share market game. The person who wins is the person who takes some stupid risk, you know, and just happens to get it right and be like, wow, look how clever they were. Trouble is they've got to keep pulling that same rabbit out of the hat again and again and again. It's like playing a poker machine. It's like if you win, walk away because it's only downhill from here.
59:57Whereas the person who is more consistent in it, Even if they're a bit obscure, they just end up being so massively hit over time. Yep. Yep. Exactly right. Exactly right. By the way, The Economist wrote an article this month in their magazine, and another one of those What's Wrong, Warren? kind of articles that Barron's famously wrote in 1999. So 25 years almost to the day. That was published on, I think it was almost the 1st of December, 99 or something close to that anyway. Almost exactly 25 years, The Economist saying, What's Wrong, Warren? or worse to that effect. I'm not going to time the market, but I would say it's probably, if anything, a contrary indicator.
1:00:36The other one we'll mention actually, mate, is I'm pretty sure they've talked about Amazon being their biggest mistake. They're businesses they knew and could have known, not because of the technology business, but because they understood retail. And so I think a little bit like Gates' thing, I would suggest if you asked Buffett, he would say his biggest mistakes were mistakes of omission, not commission. In other words, the things he didn't do rather than things he did. And that's true for all of us because there's always going to be a company that does well that we don't own. But in Buffett's case, I think he would probably say it was those ones he should have swung at and didn't, rather than the ones he did swing at and struck out.
1:01:09That's way less impactful. Dexter shoes have gone. It's a footnote. It's tiny. Versus buying Geico, the insurance company, or a massive second Coca-Cola, or a 980, whatever it was. Those are the ones that make you money. The ones you lose a bit of money on aren't going to kill you as much as you're going to make getting the other things right. Can I say in terms of those mistakes, and I speak from bitter experience here, there's more than a few companies I don't own. And yet anytime they come up, all I'll do is just shower them in praise. They're brilliant companies. And I looked at them years and years ago and thought, oh, that looks really good.
1:01:4580 cents. Maybe I'll get them at 75 cents. I did that. Yes, I was that dumb, right? Like, you idiot. Like that makes a difference either way. And I did that and I still make that mistake from time to time. And so when I look at it now and the share price is 10 times higher, psychologically, I can't look at it. I know. I could have got it at 75 and now it's 750. I don't want to, I'm too late. And what you notice with those kinds of companies is that, okay, it was a mistake, but it's not as big as a mistake as continuing to make that mistake. Like you can, it may be a lot more, the share price might be a lot higher than what it was when you had an opportunity to do it.
1:02:23It doesn't, that, that's annoying, but it doesn't mean that it's a bad investment now. In fact, maybe it's still a great investment now. Right. So just, I'm saying this to myself, get over yourself. That ship has sailed, but there's still an opportunity to get on it. Right. And, and, and, and yeah, I say it because when I talk about those kinds of things, like, I think a lot of people resonate with them. like the one that got away is so frustrating. But remember, you can still get on it, right? It's just not as good a price. Okay, sure, but that was then, this is now. And those mistakes of a mission can compound against you if you just continue to sort of go no.
1:03:07Whereas if you change your mind, you can still benefit from it, just not as much. I think that's exactly right. Yeah, I think that's probably enough on Buffett. Let's finish with a question from Mr. X. I don't know if it's the Mr. X or a Mr. X. I'm not entirely sure. Hi, Scott and Ram. Please don't use my name. Please call me Mr. X. Okay, Mr. X, I will. I'm 36 years old and my partner is 48 from Australia. I'm a long-time listener. First-time question asked. I also want to say thank you very much for giving me some amazing advice around the ideas of investing as well as an insight into Australian trends as well as fair views on both sides of reasoning in general on topics like economics, shares, crypto, and housing.
1:03:47Not sure about both sides of crypto and housing, but there you go. It has made me take my investing and my personal financial goals a lot more seriously over the last five years. Oh, that's excellent. I have a question for you both. I'm very aware that this is a dream problem. Please can I have Scott's opinion first? Because I feel rambled in a much longer runway.
1:04:08I hope he's in a good mood. Yes, I'm assuming you both will tell me to get stuffed, but I know it will be out of fun. Well, Mr. X, get stuffed. Just because you asked for it. Okay. I know you can't give financial advice and whatever it is I talked about in your response are just conversations. But my partner has inherited around a million dollars recently. That's pretty good. Well, obviously, sorry for your loss, but the money will be helpful. We both really don't want to continue to work in our own industries. And rather than starting a business or not working and eating into our savings, I've suggested maybe we should work part-time and free up more time for ourselves.
1:04:48My question to both of you, if someone gave you a million dollars today, Mr. X, feel free to, by the way, if you want to give us that million dollars, we can play this out for real time. How or what would you use it on? The obvious answer is to buy some ETFs and leave it for 20 odd years until we retire, then live on easy street. I'm not sure that starting a business is a good idea because I know from past experience that being a small business owner is like working full-time but doubled. I'm also not sure that buying a property in Perth in cash is the best way to go. I'm currently renting within my means, says Mr.
1:05:21X. And buying a property would be close to$750 ,000 for something we would realistically want to own. I'd like to buy some properties overseas and rent them out, where we could get around 10 % ROI on each property. Of course, this is worth doing a lot of research and due diligence. Or should we just do a bit of it all? buy a home maybe a unit at a lower price and some shares in investments overseas and continue to work in a part-time capacity i'm thinking buy one investment property overseas and seeing how it goes for a year before maybe continuing that path if it's successful i can't say enough how much we both do not really want to continue to work at the same rates we have been in the past please discuss what would you do in a non-advisory capacity of course this is more of a dream scenario and i'd love both of your takes much appreciated guys mr x Oh, gosh.
1:06:08That's a really good question, Mr. X. I will go first because you asked Ram. Yeah, please. Maybe I should tell him to get stuffed, as I said, but I won't. Oh, dear. I love those hypothetical questions, but Andrew will say it depends, by the way, so let's get that out of the way early.
1:06:27So, this is a really difficult one, right? On one hand, I want to say it's a million bucks. You'll never have any problems. Owning your own home is a golden ticket, right? in a way that whatever you're paying on rent now goes away. You're immediately saving that money. You can immediately choose to work less. Those opportunities don't come around very often. And if you do use the money for anything else, you're going to have to keep paying rent, which probably means, I guess if you're going to run your play for cash, you could probably throw some of that in. But the other thing we just talked about, regret minimization, and we talked about strategic mediocrity, not having to pay rent or a mortgage is a superpower.
1:07:06power. So I don't know what I would... If I had a million bucks, I'd buy a house for cash is actually what I would do as the first thing. Why? Because they can't take it away from you. Your landlord can't kick you out. No matter what else happens in your life, you've got a home that you own outright. And that given the cost of borrowing, given the uncertainty of variable mortgage repayments, even after some sort of fixed term is really, really, really attractive. could you earn more by continuing to rent and investing that money yes but you got to pay the rent you probably got to work to pay the rent and if you want to work less you've got to find a way to spend less right because that's kind of the point otherwise whatever you do the million bucks if you're spending the same amount of money you're gonna have to keep working the same rate so you either have to choose to spend less or use the income from that million bucks to subsidize your lifestyle or both and the best way for me to subsidize a lifestyle i reckon is a risk-free mortgage return and tax-free mortgage return because you're not paying, you pay tax on any other investment gains.
1:08:05You don't pay tax on interest saved or rent saved on your mortgage or on your rental property. So I would buy a place if it was me. Again, I can't see you, Mr. X, but if I got a million bucks tomorrow, I'd buy a place outright, pay off the mortgage. With what was left, I would invest it in a, well, it depends, right? You're getting started. I would actually, I would just invest in ETFs. I'm a shares investor, right? So it sounds like a funny thing to say. But for most people, your lump sum, you don't screw up the lump sum. You never have the lump sum again. Hopefully, you can save more money over time.
1:08:35But arguably, a$3.25 million home and a quarter of a million dollar investment portfolio that can compound for extended periods of time is a very, very, very, very good start. Last thought is ages. You're 36. You're partner's 48. Think about how many years you've got to retirement, how that can compound and what you need to do work-wise. I'm not saying you should keep working at the rate you are, just think about, we talked about this before with another question about mixing work and life, just kind of do the maths from now till retirement. If you had a house for three quarters of a million bucks, you had a portfolio for 250, maybe you can compound that, be a partner that's probably going to retire before you probably in 20-ish years time, want to stop working altogether.
1:09:13You can maybe double that twice. So you might get to a million, million and a half with that, which is pretty bloody good, frankly. If you add to that, it's probably worth a bit more than that. If you're not going to add to that anymore, just manage that and kind of go from there. I wouldn't invest in overseas properties, but that's just me. You don't live over there. You don't work over there. I don't know how likely it is you're going to get those sort of returns. I would happily take a capital growth and or fully frank dividend out of the Australian share market as my preferred way to invest that sort of money.
1:09:42That's about it. Ram, what do you reckon? How similar, how different? I'd give it all to charity. Okay. Nice. No, I wouldn't. The Andrew Payne show all trust all of a sudden got created while I was talking. One of my favorite movies of all time is The Three Amigos, which is a bit dated as the Steve Martin, Chevy Chase Martin short. And there's this scene where they're going to go and get El Guapo and there's reward money for it. And they're dreaming, what are you going to do with the money? It's like, oh, I'm going to buy a fast car. I'm going to go through Hollywood and be a big shot for a while.
1:10:16And what are you going to do? Oh, I'm going to do this. and that and then martin short's character goes no i'm just going to give it all to charity and start a home for the orphans or whatever oh oh yeah i mean i mean i would do that too but after after that after that i i would i would buy the fancy car so so first i would give it all to the orphans um and then yeah and then um yeah i honestly i i think for for me it's going to depend on your circumstances you rightly said but i mean i've got a bit of debt on the house and i don't want that right and i don't want it because of the costs not not because of any distaste for debt in particular it's just anyone will know that for for most of us uh below a certain age that housing is by far your biggest expense once you get rid of that expense or you radically minimize that you live the life of riley on a very very small income uh exhibit a uh the baby boomers like just like when you paid your house off you know you if you go to if you had an income of 50 grand a year so well below the average you know it's not i don't think most people would consider that a high income but you know pre-tax a thousand bucks every week you know it's not not quite brewster's millions kind of problem like yeah yeah it like depending on what your lifestyle is i think most of us could be extraordinarily comfortable on a thousand bucks a week and if not well okay you know my point is is that once that expense goes there's a lot less requirements on your time there's a lot more optionality so i would i would be maximizing for my optionality because i also know what i'm like which is change my mind a lot you know so i'm all into this and then i don't know in five years will i be i i don't know but i but I do know that whatever I time is always the most precious scarce thing in the universe.
1:12:13And that's, I want to maximize, I want to do everything I can to maximize for free time. And, and that's why for me it's housing is a no brainer. I certainly, it comes back to the point two of maximum endurance versus profit maximization, because there'd be plenty of other, I'm sure talking pundits out there who would say, well, no, that's dumb. Take the money, leverage that into another house, draw down the equity you've got, wait for that to go up. And you know what? They might be right. In 10 years' time, I might look back and go, gosh, I'd be a lot richer if I had done that. But I don't think – well, chickens haven't come home to roost yet.
1:12:50But I imagine there'll be plenty of people who have done that, who have made an absolute fortune or find they're completely rug pulled because they have structured it in a way where they're just completely fragile in their setup. And again, so that's not for me as well. So I'd also add a word of caution, as you did, Scott, with property in a foreign market. It's not just my bias against property, but it depends on what jurisdiction you're talking about. But yeah, you're subject to the whims of political winds and stuff there where, you know, it depends. It depends where you are. I don't know. Maybe it's in a very safe jurisdiction with very strong property rights and rule of law.
1:13:34And okay, maybe that's not that big a deal. But I don't think a lot of us in Australia realize just how precarious a lot of those rights are in other countries. And things can get taken away from you very quickly, particularly if you're not from there. Ask things like exchange rates. Right. Particularly if you do it for income in particular. If your aim is, I want to invest this money to generate an income, and that income is volatile based on exchange rates. And then maybe if you want to bring the money back at some point, it has a lump sum to do this differently. I'm a big fan of investing internationally.
1:14:10As I've said before, more than half of my money is invested internationally, either directly or indirectly. But I'm not doing it for income. I'm doing it for regular monthly, fortnightly, yearly income. I wouldn't do that. The other thing, by the way, if you're doing it for income specifically, then think about the benefits of franking credits because that's a return you're not going to get anywhere else from anywhere else in any other asset class or any other jurisdiction. So just have a really careful think about that. Have a think about the after-tax return. You can effectively – yeah. No guarantee.
1:14:40Shares might still give you a lower return than property or something else. Don't get me wrong. Just think about the benefits of tax as part of the consideration, not the driver. But if you've got two similar-ish potential returns, the franken credits will tip you over the top in most cases. Yeah. There's a really good read. I'm trying to think of the book. It was something on the opium wars. I'm just trying to Google it. I can't find it. But there was a lot of European traders made a fortune in China for a period there, and they bought up a lot of the real estate. And long story short, it was all seized, taken away.
1:15:08Okay, right. Because relationships soured. There are examples in the modern era of that happening, right, in the last 10 years. and again, as I say, it depends on the jurisdiction. You might be talking about Switzerland for all I know. But yeah, that sovereign risk is real. And another good, this is off topic, but it's surprising how many companies on the ASX are operating in the Congo or, you know, particularly miners, right? And they go, we've got this incredible asset and it's in the middle of Nigeria and isn't it wonderful? and looking at them, no, pass, hard pass, straight away, straight away.
1:15:48Why? Sovereign risk. You know, contract is just a piece of paper and it usually doesn't mean much in most places of the world. And everyone's sort of happy for you to do it when you're sort of harmless and on the edge. But as soon as there's money to be made, there'll be some dictator also going, no thanks, I'm going to take that. And unless you think your country is going to go to war over that for your personal rights, which they're not, be very, very, very careful. It sounds like I'm giving these really weird edge case kind of scenarios, but I'm talking modern day ASX. You would imagine companies with appropriate boards and structures all the time going into jurisdictions.
1:16:24And do you remember, Scott, wasn't that long ago where every Australian company was trying to get into China, right? Yeah, correct. A billion people, right? It's a big market. Possibly go wrong. Wealth levels are rising, disposable income. What can go wrong? You name to me a single example of an Australian company that did well by operating in China. Oh, wait, right? Like maybe there's one or two tiny examples you can find. There'll be the exception that proves the rule. Now, don't point to BHP for me. They didn't operate it. They sold stuff to China. Okay, that's different. I'm talking about going over there and selling direct to the consumer or direct to business.
1:17:00And it just does not exist. And as far as I can think of anyway, almost every example, they came back with their towel between their legs, just having torched a bunch of capital. His business is done different over there. And this isn't just – it sounds like I'm having a go at China. This is in a lot of places in the world. Even companies that are operating in Australia, if for whatever reason the political winds blow in a different direction, they could find that they don't have as favorable an environment to operate in. So I'm just really – personally, I'm really nervous of investing in most places in the world for all of that reason.
1:17:37And generally speaking, that's why junk bonds offer such incredible yields, right? If you've got an investment property that's offering like a real rate of return after costs and expenses in the double digits, like it's probably because there's a risk premium involved. And that risk premium is probably there for a good reason. Now, again, I'm going off on a massive tangent based on one single sentence here and I could be completely barking up the wrong tree. But it's a useful point to make, even if it's not in relation to this specific answer. Just as you as an investor looking at things that are overseas, be careful because it more often than not doesn't work out well.
1:18:16Yeah, I think that's right. Yeah. Did you finalize what you do? So you'd buy the house. Did you have an investment plan for what was left over? Yeah. I think I couldn't help myself. I would have to do some direct investing. I get where you're coming from. Should the average investor do that though? Again, we're not giving you advice, but is that what you would suggest the average person do? If the average person finds that interesting, yeah. You know, like I hesitate a little bit at that term and I know you're not using it wrong, but there's too much in our industry of like, oh, well, I should do this, but you, bless your little cotton socks, pat you on the head.
1:19:01Here's a safe toy for you to play with. It's been entirely nerfed. Off you go. And, you know, sometimes not without good reason, but I'm very firm in my belief that I think any person of average capacity can do really well in investing if they dedicate the time to it and take it seriously. If they have the aptitude, though, is the other thing. I mean, I love my sister to death. She shouldn't pick her own stocks because she's just not that way geared. So I guess I'd say, when I say the average person, you're right. I don't want to insult anyone's intelligence. And frankly, if you're listening to this podcast, you probably are enough to do it.
1:19:36And it is absolutely learnable and achievable. But it's like anyone can learn to paint, right? I probably should just buy a painting. You know, could I learn to paint? Maybe. Should I? Probably not. And I guess I'm deliberately trying to draw a distinction here between, you know, the thoughtful, competent, the intelligent investor, to use the phrase from Ben Graham, there are people who absolutely should be like, oh man, I think I can do this. Other people are like, you know what? I'm smart. I'm capable. I do a lot of important intelligent things in my life. I'm just not particularly geared towards numeracy or in business models or whatever.
1:20:16So I guess to my mind, there is that distinction between the different groups, not because I can do it and you can't, but because I can do it and you can do it, but your mate probably can't do it. and your sister probably can, but her uncle probably shouldn't. You know what I mean? That's the only distinction I'm trying to draw, I suppose. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, your approach was right, and you start with what you want and work backwards from there. And so, again, so for me, let's assume that I've got, you know, aside from council rates and the basics like that, I've got no housing-related expense.
1:20:47Right. And it's like, yeah,$1 ,000 a week is more than enough for me, you know? And if I can get 10 % return on average, it won't be every year. And again, I don't feel like I'm being too egotistical to suggest that because it's just kind of like the long-term average return. Maybe I'm wrong, but rightly or wrongly, I feel as though that's within my wheelhouse. I could do something like that, even if, to your point, it is just a plain old ETF. Well, that's only like 500 grand that I – only 500 grand. It's 500, yeah. Not an insignificant amount of money, But it's not as much as you'd think. So it depends on the size of the mortgage and everything else that you paid off.
1:21:26But if I could get mortgage-free and work my way up to sort of a roundabout that as a capital base, I think that's what I would be working towards, whether that be part-time, full-time. Maybe I get there just straight away from the inheritance alone. Or maybe it gets me very close and then I work for another five years. But that's kind of the goal because then I'm at a point where it's just sort of like I've just got a perpetual motion machine where it's just sort of like I'll spend money every year and why wouldn't you? That's what money's for. But the magic pudding always fills itself back up again because I'm only living off the interest and the earnings.
1:22:02I'm not touching the capital base. And I think that's – and then I'm bulletproof, man. I'm absolutely bulletproof. And that's where I would want to go to. I like that, mate. I like that. I think that's a good starting point. Hey, that's been a really fun combination of questions today. I've enjoyed those very much. I am mindful, mate. I am keeping you from your 200-kilometer bike ride. So I don't want that much longer. You'll need to get on the road pretty quickly because you've got to swim after that. You're a busy man. You know it. Looking after the kids and changing the world. And, of course, your straw man members are looking forward to hearing more from you.
1:22:37So we'll have to let them do that for about a week or so. Will you come back on Friday? Oh, mate. You know you can't stop me at this point. So, yes, I will. Absolutely. At some point, you know, we'll actually – we'll be doing this and someone was like, you guys haven't done a podcast episode for a while? We'll be like, oh, yeah. We'll look back. There'll be like two years of podcasts that we've done. No one's ever bothered uploading, but we've never noticed. We've kept doing this podcast. Until we see you on Friday, thanks for listening. Have a great weekend. And full on. Yeah. Cheers. The Motley Fool and people appearing in this program may have positions in the companies mentioned.
1:23:09General advice only. Please speak to your financial professional to understand how it may pertain to your situation. Subscribe to the free newsletter at fool.com.au forward slash listener. The Motley Fool operates under Financial Services Licence 400691.
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