We get a little... ranty. October 27, 2023

0:06Welcome to Motley Fool Money, the podcast that has inflation at exactly 0.0.0%. I'm Scott Phillips from The Motley Fool. He is Andrew Rampage, the man who should have been a wrestler, but instead is running a... I wonder what sort of business it is. Anyway, it's called strawman.com. Mr. Page, good morning. It's Private Online Investment Club. Oh, there you go. Probably should have been a wrestler. And yeah, I'm doing pretty good. How about you? Good. I say good morning because we are recording this on Thursday morning, of course, as we generally tend to do. This will go live on Friday afternoon.

0:41So I drew back the curtain a little bit. Mate, I'm very well. I'm up in the Gold Coast for work at the moment. So we're recording this in slightly different circumstances, surroundings. You're, of course, in the straw man global HQ, as you always are. AKA my spare bedroom. Oh, there's that too. Speaking of behind the curtain. Oh, mate. Yeah, we've been with the Bosnial, isn't it? Look, this great online business. I want it. It must be a really large, sophisticated business. We're out of some glass office on Bridge Street in Sydney or Collins Street in Melbourne. Instead, you keep it humble, mate.

1:12There's not many billionaires who would run their own businesses from their spare bedrooms. I'm just looking at my Zoom image now. I've definitely got some serious bedhead going on and I'm in my Ugg boots. So, you know, there are advantages to not being in the glass, you know, in a city office. There are some curtains we should not draw back, mate. Yeah, true. It's been a very, well, it's been a funny week this week. I was going to say a very big week. There's actually not a huge amount of corporate news, but quite a bit of macroeconomic news, quite a lot going on. So why don't we duck home into that and sort of try and pull that apart a little bit.

1:44Maybe the biggest news this week was the inflation numbers out on Wednesday morning. The market didn't like it. It was up at half a percent before the numbers came out, finished about flat. The Australian dollar jumped by, I think it was half a percent or something on the news. So it tells you what the markets thought about it. I also, mate, I'm going to just quickly, not so much editorialize, but give some detail because I think most news outlets, most commentators actually mixed the big issue. In fact, I was asked about it a few times on Wednesday, and people would quote the quarterly inflation numbers to me.

2:19They are the rolled gold standard. They're the ones that we've been seeing for decades. It's the most robust data series telling us what's happening with prices. And that number said that inflation fell from 6 % to 5.4%, all good news. The quarter was 1.2%. If you annualize that, that's 4.8%. Those things are all good pieces of news. What I think most people missed because i i get you want to kind of report the most um widely accepted and longest you know most reliable data series is the quarterly i'm sorry the monthly inflation numbers we actually saw inflation go from 4.9 in july to 5.2 to august to 5.6 in september so not only was it the end of the quarter higher than the quarter itself we've talked about that by the way to about six month sales and saying if you look at just an average six months it doesn't tell you what happened the trend of sales during that period.

3:09It kind of strikes me that the same thing happened with inflation. Yes, the quarterly number was lower than the previous quarter, but it was also lower than the last month's worth of inflation. In other words, inflation is accelerating through the quarter, even if the total was down. I don't know if that's too detailed a way to try and start a podcast, but it just struck me that for all of the commentary on, you know, maybe it was a little bit too high for the quarter. And yes, the RBA will look at that one. The trend for me is the ugliest part of this yeah and i think that's that's the takeaway there is is the general trend maybe the general vibe is is the term i i should use here because i do think we tend to over intellectualize you know specific data points in time and we often lack context so we could debate all day every day as as much of the punditry does as to exactly what each particular data that point means and how it's changed.

4:05But, I mean, generally speaking, what's the big picture here? I think the big picture is stuff's more expensive and more expensive than is comfortable and has been that way for a while and is not going back to where the powers that be would like it to be. I think, what's they're saying, mid-2025 as the RBA sort of - Late 2025. Okay, it's late 2025 now. I mean, completely pointless. You know, it's so far away. So it's what are we talking about? Two years away. And we've, you know, Phil Lowe is famous for his sort of longer term forecast. It wasn't a bit brave of them to put a month on that after getting it so badly on the first time around, surely.

4:46Do you know? It's a madness. So, I mean, I think that's where we need to sort of take this from, which is this idea that it is higher. It feels as though it's higher for longer. even Bullock is saying there are factors she she's specifically cited fuel and tensions in the Middle East and this kind of stuff is like well RBA can't do do much about that yeah the thing that I found really interesting diabolical almost it was the the other big item in the series that pushed up the headline figure was rents. Yeah. Now, we all know that I think the global, global, the national average vacancy rate is 0.8%.

5:31So anyone listening to this who's been trying to rent a house, you know exactly what I mean. You rock up, there's 50 people out the door. It's really, really tough. Interest rates have been going up. They've been on pause for a tiny little bit, but as we don't need me to tell you, they've been going up. And poo rolls downhill. So, you know, all the people paying, all the investors paying extra on their mortgage to pass that on to rents. That's what we've seen in the series. That's what's put inflation up. Michelle has gone, well, let's, well, I will, you know, she's talking the hard talk. Well, I'll do whatever it takes to get it back.

6:02In other words, hey guys, I might have to increase interest rates again. And it's a long bow here, but where I'm getting at is that, well, think this through. So you're going to put rates up again, which is going to make interest expense higher, which is going to make rents higher, which is going to make inflation higher, which is going to make you want to put up interest rates higher, which is, do you see where I'm going here? There's a circularity to it all. Now, again, a whole bunch of other stuff in the series that's all measured. It's a basket of goods, but it just, I feel as though, and I know we keep repeating ourselves here.

6:43It just, I use the term diabolical because that's what it is it feels as though like we're trying to fight a fire with with gasoline right what are you what are your thoughts how do how do you look i look cut to the cut to the chase here i think we both sort of land on the point i was just like geez it'd be nice if if the fiscal side of um the equation was was helping here it's like you've got one team uh pushing while the other's pulling kind of thing or pulling in the opposite direction and something like i want to say i heard the figure the other day, but I forget the exact number. You might be able to help me.

7:17But the degree of government spending, even if you strip out the pandemic, is as high as it's ever been. So there's one institution desperately trying to take heat out of the economy. There's another one pumping it in, about to introduce even more tax cuts. I don't know. Diabolical. diabolical yes it is look i think and this is where i i've been i've been pretty protective or defensive for the rba because i think i'm really really comfortable that the rba is doing what it can with what it's got based on its mandate and so i i think it's you know people who say well if you are better this they're going to do this and this and this like yes they've got two bad choices they have to either hit us all with inflation again we've talked this before i don't want to i don't want to roll ground but it's kind of important because i still get questions about it and so they are doing what they can to solve the problem they've been presented with with the tool they've been given it's literally the man with a hammer problem except they have literally been given a hammer and told whatever this thing looks like assume it's a nail treat it like a nail because you've only got that's literally what we've asked them to do you know and jim chalmers treasurer again during the during the week make very clear throwing the word independent in front of reserve bank every time he talks about it so that he can he can try not us his problem right exactly and again by the way this is not a political point what everyone knows if you listen to this podcast before i've swung large hammers at every politician and every side of politics at different times but it's a pretty gutless thing to do what jim chum should be setting up and saying is they got monetary policy they've got a mandate they're doing exactly what they've been asked to do uh reasonable people can disagree about what the steps might need to be taken but these guys the monetary policy experts i appointed michelle bullock i chose the governor you can you can get a few political points by getting rid of the bad man phil lowe who made everyone cry and then you got you look like a hero but you know what you Your point of Michelle Bullock, mate, so this is solely on you.

9:13If it's an independent reserve bank, fine, but you chose the governor. You said this is the right person to handle interest rates moving forward. So I'll start there. You're absolutely right on fiscal policy, mate. It is, and again, to half defend Australian government's plural, it is a relatively accepted international, what's the word, hospital pass. Every government says to their central union, you do it, I'm not doing it. But that's not an excuse, right? Just because you're a criminal like the other criminals doesn't mean you're not a criminal anymore. Not that government's a criminal, but you know what I mean?

9:47That kind of idea, you can't just simply handball it and say, well, it's their fault. Governments need to be doing more. I've said a million times, mate, the RBA is flying a biplane, and they've got a stick that goes up, down, or sideways. That's all they can do. The government's flying an F-18 bloody fighter jet, and I don't know if fighter jets very well, but they've got missiles and heads-up displays and bombs and bullets and God knows what. And, you know, they can, you know, it's just crazy. You know, the government's playing an Xbox and the ABS playing an Atari 2600. For the kids, just assume that means it's really old.

10:20You know, it is just crazy, mate. And it just, it's so incredibly frustrating for two reasons. One is monetary policy itself is a blunt instrument. The cost of money, you've rallied about the cost of money before and whether the central bank should set it. I don't necessarily share the extent of your view, but - I just interrupted there very quickly. I think that's right. I have made my peace with that a little bit. I'll just say quickly, in the sense that there is accepting the world as it is versus how you would have it. So I think I'd love to talk to you about that over a beer because it's so fascinating.

10:52But there is that part of me that's just sort of acknowledged that world is never happening. And I didn't mean to only mention it passing and keep going. I just wanted to, as I made my comment, I wanted to just reflect to our listeners that we don't have a unity ticket here. I want to at least highlight the fact you disagree just for the sake of the fullness of the conversation.

11:12But, you know, monetary policy is a very specific, very blunt tool for a very specific purpose. And I have no problem with it, but it's in the concept of everything else. It's like saying, sorry, Department of Agriculture, you're responsible for our entire revenue raising efforts in Australia. so but isn't isn't there like the ato and and state governments or regulatory bodies yeah no we're going to make all these the department of agriculture do it all so but you've got other why would you do that you know or whatever whatever you want to choose um it's it's absolute total madness uh not only so not only is it a blunt tool it has a very specific and by the way the cost of money as much as i was going to say as much as i agree with setting a artificial interest rate still only impacts certain transactions in certain ways and not only is it blunt but it's a very winding way to get to the destination because it can only operate through a certain part of the economy.

12:00So not only is it blunt and narrow, which is both possible at the same time, by the way, the governments have the opportunity to raise revenue, slow spending, divert activity, so that it is collected more cleverly, more thoughtfully, more appropriately and more fairly across the population on different activities and different things. If you want a slow spending making it hard for people to buy food is probably not the way you do it you know it'll work you can you can you can have some people not having dinner tonight that'll work it'll slow spending and that'll that'll actually have an impact on inflation yeah absolutely well it's like it's like i've got a four people i've broken my finger let's amputate my arm all of a sudden my finger's not a problem anymore it's like well we did fix the problem of your sore finger but did we it's like well we'll fix the problem in inflation yeah just by making you all go hungry yeah so i you know and there are many ways of fixing i've talked about a few but fiscal policy is is absolutely absent here mate um and it's it's just you know i i gotta say i'm i'm a bit disappointed with jim chalmers um i think he's a smart bloke i think he cares i think he wants the best for australia i also think that the labor party broadly and this is a political statement but not about politics not not aimed at a party particularly just more the circumstances is so absolutely, you know, what's scared of the electorate and of an election that they simply have refused to actually make decent, reasonable policy decisions.

13:28And so Jim Chalmers' largest contribution to the debate so far has been to sack Phil Lowe and to tell everyone how sorry he is and he hopes Michelle Bullock made some good decisions. And, yeah, really sorry. I know you're doing it tough. And, yes, we're focused on the cost of living. It's like - Which is such a vacuous - That's what Tim does. And because, and I don't mean it to be overly critical, but Michelle Bullock is a carbon copy of Phil Lowe. Like they are cut from the same cloth. There is nothing she is going to do that's going to be a radical departure from - Yeah. You know? And so it's sort of like, it's all theater.

14:03It's like, oh, as you say, the bad man, I'm going to make him go away. And can you just keep going forward so I've got someone to point at? Yeah. Yep. I 100 % agree. and it's you know i don't get up because i don't i hesitate to bag individual politicians because people who already don't like them on the other side of politics say yeah yeah he's always been like that or she's always been like that and the people who like them say no don't be mean to our guy he's a nice man and we like him a lot and he's just trying really hard and i just i just that's why i don't like to talk about politics i don't talk about policies but frankly uh the government at the last budget did literally bugger all to rein in the debt and deficit levels uh bugger all to actually have an impact on inflation.

14:44Literally zero. The best you can say about Chalmers is he didn't spend more of the surplus than he did. He spent some of the surplus. So he actually added stimulus to the economy. Last budget, right? Net-net. And as you said, both parties voted for, literally in Parliament, the floor of Parliament, voted for stage three tax cuts, which will come in next year. Frankly, by then we actually may need it if the economy's fallen in a hole. But, you know, as - Not the people who get it won't need it. well they'll probably they won't need it what i mean is if they if they spend some portion of it it'll be a net stimulus for the economy and maybe we'll need some sort of stimulus but you're right it's not it's not needed by those people they all want it um and i don't blame anyone for wanting stuff that's human nature right but it's just anyway the whole thing the whole thing is absolutely freaking crazy so i um i'm gonna i'm gonna bang on one more drum mate for a second again so we have fiscal policy i still i know you and i differ again on this one and that's great because we have good conversations.

15:40We, at the end of September, welcomed approximately, according to some estimates, our 500th new overseas arrival to the country in June, September for the year. And when you've got a vacancy rate of 0.8 % and you're saying, you know what we really should do? We should have more households formed so that we can have more people trying to get in the real estate market because, hey, this thing is going so incredibly well. This is a really smart idea. And what we should really, really do is try and drive that rental vacancy rate down further. Now, that's not exactly what they're saying, but they know that's the implication.

16:12You're a fan of Big Australia. I'm less a fan of Big Australia. Even if I agree you're right over a long enough period of time, the madness of allowing excess household formation when you've got a constrained property market. What's the right? We shouldn't call it property market. God, I hate the term property market. No one buys a house to live in anymore. It's a property market. How do we describe the property sector or what's going on? Anyway, there are more people wanting a home. Ponzi, is that the word you're looking for? No, I just mean the literal sense of there are more people looking for a house that can find one.

16:47No, it's your argument, if I can summarize it in one word, is maths, which is a good argument when it comes to these kinds of things because you're saying X amount of houses plus Y amount of people where Y is greater than X. Do you know what is that? It's not even high school maths. It is literally year two maths. Yeah. And so a bit of clarity here. I'm not for a big Australia at all. Let's just bring him in. Open the gates and let it fly. No, we need to have the infrastructure in that built. I feel as though we are stronger as a nation, better as a nation. Technology can do a lot of really great things in terms of us being able to support higher populations in harmony with the environment, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

17:34But it takes long-term planning, you know. Planning is the other word, right? So, it's maths and it's plans. Like, let's have half a million people. When we know that, we can house them, feed them, provide them with actually – So, water – how long ago was there level two, level one water restrictions? Oh, they're warning again about here in Sydney at least that, you know, by the way, probably going to have to put water restrictions in. It's a drier September, I think, on record. And, yeah. If you try to drive to and from a CBD, I just – yeah. Yeah, so maths and planning, they are the two things that apparently bureaucrats and politicians in camera can't spell.

18:07But what, I mean, just very, very quick detour. What a great idea, though, as a long-term strategy to say, let's bring in, bring us your, like, what do they say? What's the saying on the Statue of Liberty? It kind of says, give us your weak and you're depraved and you're paraphrasing here. give us your educated, your hardworking, your motivated, but your best and bright. We have Team Australia. We have really good marketing, right? It's very safe. It's very reliable, very high standards of living, beautiful environment. People want to come here. Why wouldn't you? Why wouldn't you want to come here, right?

18:46It's brilliant. And, you know, and then we've got cultures and races from all around the world. And we've shown that the multicultural experiment, more or less worked pretty well. People want to come here, right? Yeah, yeah. If I, again, so I wouldn't just open up the borders and let it rip, but I would absolutely say if we want more doctors and engineers and scientists and developers and programmers - We can literally take our pick. Take our pick, right? How strong are we, right? And let's keep everyone happy. Let's bring in some great cricketers as well. We'll just, we'll dominate - We'll dominate industry.

19:25Rugby players. Any kiwis who want to come to Australia and play rugby are very, very, very welcome. So it's just like it strikes me as something that makes a huge amount of sense. But yeah, but, you know, it's just madness what they're doing. So I'll agree on that point. Can I take a step back here? Please. One quick passing blow at the new governor. I opened up the AFR the other day and the headline read, Rent is better off than in 2021, colon, RBA's Bullock. First paragraph. Renters and low-income households are better off than they were two years ago, despite high inflation and rapidly rising rents.

20:01A strong employment and income growth shields people from the worst of the cost of living crunch, Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock says. Now, can I just take task at this for a moment? So, a bureaucrat on more than a million dollars a year says that low-income households and people that are renting, who are objectively, according to the RBA's own data, paying a butt-ton more in rent and having far less purchasing power than they did two years ago, are okay. Because at least you've all got jobs. And that's shielding you from what the worst of it could be. Read the room, Michelle. like it's just like that is just a lot of mistake wasn't it well what the hell are you talking about and this it just there will be two broad cohorts of people listening to this and two broad cohorts of people that would have been reading this article and i think again not to make it about housing but it kind of is whereas it's like there are those that have paid off their mortgage or a very big chunk of it who actually life's good i've got a job you know it sucks that prices are five percent more expensive than they were a year ago but the equity in my house is is ripping i feel pretty wealthy the interest rate charge isn't really hitting me too much and then you've got others who's just like wait a second you know food bank lines are the longest they've ever been you know more people sleeping in their cars now in australia than ever has been and and i just can't afford the rent and i certainly and the mortgage is is really really difficult and just just for that statement to say that you know you really are better off when you think about it do Can you imagine?

21:34Terry, the teacher at the local public school going, things aren't really as good for me as they used to be, but at least the economy has full employment. Like, you know, Bob, the ambulance driver is going, oh, don't worry, Mary, about our crappy and declining conditions. At least the economy has full employment. Like, tone deaf. I just thought, anyway, I was exasperated. Can I take half an exception to that or at least raise a conversation point. Yep. Does it not reflect on our woeful state of national discourse that we expect a bureaucrat to speak in politically acceptable language? And the reason I ask that, I suppose, is I'm not saying you're wrong because the newspapers jump all over it, people jump all over it, the shock jocks jump all over it.

22:26Maybe for our own sake, she should just shut the hell up, right? But I will... So I found the article you're talking about and i just i'm gonna say this is a quote quote miss bullock presented rba research showing renters had actually seen their spare cash flow improved since 2021 due to higher income growth quite end quote and i i don't know mate i making the point is probably asking for trouble and the rba doesn't need more criticism right now so i don't if i if i'm her pr advisor i completely agree with you part of me though is like i don't know i i'm old-fashioned that our bureaucrats should be able to kind of do the whole, hey, this thing happens to be true.

23:03And I'm sorry if it's true. And I'm sorry if you don't like it. And I'm sorry if other things are also true. And there are countervailing factors and everything else. If that's, do you know what I mean? Like, I don't, I don't want to stick up for bullock for the sake of it. But part of me is like, it's like the Jim Chalmers thing. Like, oh, you poor people. I'm so sorry. I feel terrible for your issues. I'm going to try and help you solve this. I'm here. I'm your friend. And maybe you'll vote for me, please. I don't know. I kind of, part of me thinks it's refreshing that the bureaucrats go, this is what the data says my job my job is not to massage it present it to pull my punches or only to say the things that as you say it says i'm reading the room i'm going to give you the data that we've got and then you can do with that data what you choose my job is a bureaucrat is to give you the information make the decision i don't know is that is that no no no no no you're right no balances in context is important i i feel as though there is nuance there and i'm glad you raised that it's sort of like that that the subtext there is yes your cash flow has improved and then you look at it why is that well actually more people in your house are working and they're longer hours yeah like well okay so you know there's i know i agree and and it's it's it's not that you shouldn't comment on the data hey this is the data i would say that your job is to be very clear in your communication this is what our job is this is how i'm thinking about it yes and this is how i'll act under various circumstances and this data is is i am interpreting it in this way that is fine that is fine and there's no you know she's allowed to say what she likes so i'm not saying she's done anything wrong you know legally but i just i do i do just it just it's we are all in our own bubble i don't care how educated you are or how much you try to put yourself outside of your own head but you know it i think it bold statements like this you catch you catch people not not as if they they just sometimes say the quiet part out loud you know and it just it belies a sentiment that's here it's like hey what are you worried about you're all fine it's a let them eat cake kind of moment but you think it is that's what i'm asking i guess i'm wondering are we playing our own judgments if it's just if she's making a statement this thing is true she's not saying therefore i don't care or therefore you should shut up it's just like data shows this yeah if we then say well yeah but you see the only reason it says that is because and you're not reading the room and you're not you you therefore must think that we don't matter i don't i don't again maybe i'm too generous but i don't think michelle bullock will feel low or any of the bureaucrats actually think well shut the hell up you lot like what the hell do you want you've got more money just stop you whinging it's kind of like my job is to interpret the economy and tell you what's going on you say to me what's happening with renters well renters actually got some spare cash because as you say incomes have gone up more people are working she doesn't say therefore i don't care or therefore you should stop complaining or therefore you're doing well those are the those the implications that we potentially assume she means or put on the assumptions or present that way or hear that way um i guess i'm just i'm just you know to the extent she doesn't say yeah if she didn't know if she adds therefore eat cake then you go hey michelle you missed the point here right yeah here is the data it's like that that's she might say but that's still terrible because we know that people are still doing it tough you shouldn't have to work more hours just to pay the rent or she might say therefore stop whinging or therefore somewhere in between i'm just i'm just because our reserve government has been verbal for years i'm just i guess maybe i'm a bit defensive on their behalf but i just think it's like she just said here is the data that this is what's going on i don't know that we should necessarily say michelle don't don't say those things that people mightn't like because people might criticize you it's like i'm just telling you what the situation so she's like saying the abs oh you guys saying the inflation is 5.4 % are you?

26:43Well, you think that's okay, do you? No, what are you saying? That's the number, you know? I don't know. Well, also she's representing her institution, right? And like a CEO will always speak of their own company favorably. You know, a senior politician, well, any politician will always speak of their own party favorably. So she's not going to go up there and sort of say, oh, actually it's really bad out there and we've done a terrible job. So that's really the context. That Phil bloke, man, lucky we got rid of him because he was really... You're never going to throw him under a bus, right? It's always going to be, oh, well, you know, while we acknowledge challenges they're going to try and put a positive spin on things of course they are because otherwise they look bad right so i i get it but it just i don't know what my point is other than it's just i think sometimes these comments can be a little bit revealing of of where the priorities sort of lie and where the you know i i i feel as though while i am probably fairly judged as trying to put a negative spin on things i would sort of say well that probably fair but you're trying to put a positive spin on things.

27:44And the truth is probably somewhere, you know. Can I take a broader, can I just pan out a little bit here? Please. I think this is just back to our original point on inflation. Just, gosh, it occupies a very large, the pie chart of like my mental energy. Too much of it goes on this kind of stuff lately. So I'm going to start from the standpoint of, I think that inflation is a, in a large way, at least a monetary phenomenon. There's more, same, there's a certain capital base that's out there. Certain machines that make other machines, human capital, all of that kind of stuff. Stuff that helps us enjoy what we have.

28:25Think about what we actually have, like the stuff we have, the services we have. That's what make us rich. Let's forget about money for a second, right? Like it's just when you look at if you were an alien and you landed in the middle of Sydney and then you took off and then you landed in the middle of Bangladesh to pick on somewhere else. You go, well, there's difference. There's differences here. One group of these shaved apes seem to be enjoying a much higher standard of living than the others. Why? Why is that? And again, without talking about money, you get to a point. And it's like, well, actually, you've got a much richer, varied, and robust capital base.

29:00More factories, more equipment, you know, the stuff that helps you have all the great things that we love. A highly educated workforce, et cetera, et cetera. Okay. That's fantastic. We've got whatever it is, we've got so much stuff. And the way that we account for it all is just through money. So I'll introduce money at this point. Now, what happens is when the banks create money, they will say, you'll go up and say, I want to buy a house. Great. How much? We'll make a calculus of that and we'll give it to you. And then we literally create a ledger, adjust our ledger, and just put some zeros into your bank account and you've now got money.

29:38So money is created. Again, not conspiratorial. It's just fractional reserve bank. It's how the system works, right? Yep. So we've created money and now you've gone and you've spent that money right away. Now, the way that you've done that is basically just said, can I have all the money now and over the next 25 years I will pay you back so I'll give it back to you yep so money boom create didn't exist yesterday existed today and backed by a promise that I will pay that back with some interest over over a set set period of time great so we've all done that Australia is just leave it up over the last 30 years to a great extent now I'm not saying this is necessarily gonna be I'm not using this in any way to frame some kind of forecast we just have.

30:16That's just fact. So whether you want to do debt to income, debt to equity, whatever it is, it's just gone to very extreme levels. So what that says is that we've had a whole bunch of demand pulled forward from the future, all backed up by these future sort of promises. Now, without predicting anything, what it does say is that we can't continue to dip into that bucket because we kind of maxed out the credit card. I'm sure we could go a little bit further if we had to. Maybe we could return interest rates to zero. Maybe we could relax lending standards. But that shot has been fired to a large degree.

30:53Now, going in, while this was all happening, the government had, in Australia, had extraordinarily low debt. We're really blessed. Even now, our debt to GDP is, what is it, mate, 30%, 40 %? Like, compared to the US. I would have said mid-30s if you'd asked me, but I don't have it in hand, yeah. I think it's around that level, right? So that's been - Government debt, of course, not private debt. Sorry. Yeah, well, that's different. Yeah. Well, that's my point. Private debt, okay, I wouldn't say maxed out, but we're up towards near our limit, right, in terms of what can be sustained. Because to continue down that path, okay, we just have to make more promises or I'll work even harder in the future, I'll earn even more money in the future.

31:35And, again, I'm not using that as a predictive kind of base. It is what it is. You can't pull on that string forever. But what's happened, and particularly accelerated through COVID, and for entirely appropriate reasons, I would argue at the time, the government has now ramped up its debt. And you made the point on Twitter the other day, spending well beyond its means. Well beyond its means. So we've had one whole bunch of new money brought into the system on the private front. We're now increasingly seeing it on the public front. Now, back to my original point, the stuff that's out there is still the stuff that's out there, but there is a lot more money.