She BEAT The S&P 500 By 41%?!

0:28All right. and then I'm going to tell you about my latest money losing move.

0:44All right. So what is it? You've been on a stock kick. You're really on a stock kick. Which is just bad news for me. Anytime I get on a stock kick, bad things happen. I just don't realize it until three years later. So let me just show you these two charts. So take a look at this chart. It's about this stock called Palo Alto Networks. I don't think you're following too much of Palo Alto Networks. Am I right in assuming that? I'm not following right now, but I know it's one of the Silicon Valley OGs. It's been around for a long time. And yeah. Yeah. Okay. Good. That's pretty good. All right. So look at this stock.

1:18First, I know a bullshitter when I hear one, and you don't know a shit about the stock. I know whatever you can learn reading the Wikipedia. I've read the Wikipedia. Tell me this. What do they sell? What's the product? No, no, no. Why are you looking at your screen? Look at me. Look me in the eyes and tell me what they sell. Networking and data solutions, I believe. So something like they used to be one of the OGs that had servers, didn't they? Dude, here's the reality. I don't know what they sell either. It doesn't matter what they sell. Look at this chart for a second. So this chart shows last five days, damn, down 14%, 15 % basically.

1:52That's pretty bad. And actually, it would be worse than that, except for there's this little uptick. So look at the second chart. This is today up 10%. You might ask yourself, did they just have like an earnings call? Did they announce a new product? Did they announce a big AI breakthrough? What is causing the stock in the first two hours of trading today to be up 10 %? The answer is our girl, friend of the pod, Nancy Pelosi just made a trade. She just bought a million dollars of Palo Alto Networks of stock. And immediately people start following her action and start buying this thing blind because they don't know what she knows, but they know that she knows something.

2:30Isn't that so funny that that's what's happening nowadays? Like I follow this account. I don't know if you follow it, the Pelosi tracker. And they were like, it says breaking. The queen is back at it again. She just bought$1.25 million of Palo Alto Network calls. And then it says, and then like there's a sub headline, Palo Alto Networks is one of the leading cybersecurity companies in the nation. Like in case you need to know, but here's the reality. You don't need to know. You just need to know that Nancy Pelosi, who has one of the greatest stock trading track records of our time, just bought this.

3:01Are you actually buying this? No, I'm not buying the Palo Alto. I was going to say, we just did this amazing whole thing on Buffett a couple episodes ago. Two months ago when Munger died, we did a whole episode on that. And I was going to say, you did a great job of remembering what he said, which is like invest blindly in things you don't understand, right? Yeah, invest blindly off random Twitter anonymous accounts. claims about 90-year-old women's trades. So that's what I'm doing. No, I didn't buy this one, but I did find it. I was kind of curious. I was like, I saw this tweet and I was like, I've seen her track record or the data analysis of her track record.

3:38It's really, really impressive. I don't have it offhand here, but it's better than most hedge funds. It's better than most famous investors that you know of. And so I was wondering, are people just fast following her trades? That's why I looked at what's happened today. And the share price is up 27 bucks this morning. because she had to disclose what she bought. And so people were tracking that. So I just find that I was curious, does the stock actually move when Pelosi makes a trade? And our girl moves weight, all right? She makes waves in the market. I'm an idiot, and I don't know anything about politics.

4:16But what I would say is, if I'm in charge, what I would say to all these folks who are high up in the government is I would pay them a huge sum, like$2 or$3 million a year, right? Because there's only like 500. How many people are, I don't even know. This is how ignorant I am. How many people are in the Senate and Congress? I would pay them a ton of money and say, there, now you can't speak, you can't consult. And also all of your money has to be in this political ETF or whatever it's called. So we know every trade you're doing and you can't actually buy individual stocks. It's kind of ridiculous that she's able to do this, right?

4:50It's actually her husband. Her husband's able to do it. It's their money, but it is kind of crazy. Well, I think she's allowed to do it too. It's not only this. Well, her husband's a PE guy. I mean, he's like, this is his job, I would imagine. All right, so let me just tell you this. The last big trade that I saw from her was in, I believe, 2022. So July 2022, Nancy Pelosi and her husband, Paul, who's a VC, decided to buy 25 ,000 shares of NVIDIA. they said what's the best stock in the world right now since 2022 what is almost the most valuable company in the world right now nvidia oh that's right so they bought it at 165 bucks it's currently trading at 800 oh that's pretty good uh a little 4.8x for our girl nancy that's that's pretty impressive good trade when i first yeah great trade when i first moved to san francisco I told you the story how I lived in this warehouse.

5:46It was like a dirt cheap warehouse. It was horrible. It was an awful place to live. I lived with four other guys. One of the guys worked there at NVIDIA when I lived in this warehouse. He worked at NVIDIA, I believe from 2009 to 2014. And I was doing the math. If he had$150 ,000 of equity given to him over four years, which seems reasonable. That's$30 ,000,$40 ,000 a year. If he didn't sell, his net worth would be something like$35 million. Is that insane or what? And he wasn't an early employee. He would have been an employee. I don't know how big they were at the time, but it was thousands of people back then.

6:23Isn't that insane that someone could do that? NVIDIA has been insane. So what was the S &P 500 gain last year? Last year, the S &P 500 was up 24 % in 2023. Okay. Nancy Pelosi was up 65%. She just tripled the stock, the S &P 500 performance with her trades, you know, as her side hustle. Well, she's the whatever, the speaker of the house or whatever the hell she is. Pretty crazy. You know what else has grown a mere, you know, 25 % in the last year? What? Our YouTube subscriber base. We are putting Pelosi to shame out here, but we need your help. We need your help. We need you to go to YouTube. We need you to type in My First Million, and we need you to subscribe because we put in so much work every week, and people think it's free.

7:09It's a common misconception. They think it's free. Sam, tell them what it is. Look, this podcast isn't free. Everything on YouTube is free, except for this channel. All we need in payment is just you to click subscribe. It takes you literally 10 seconds, but it means the world to us. We pour our hearts in this. It's all we're asking in exchange. It's called the Gentleman's Agreement. We're not there to actually see it. You do it, but we hope you do. That's why it's the Gentleman's Agreement. What do you got? What's the trade that you just did that you actually are excited about? Because you said, when we started, you said you got a trade that you're doing as we speak.

7:40What is it? Disclaimer, not financial advice. Disclaimer, I'm very bad at stock trading. But I persist because I'm the little engine that could. I'll never give up. And so I noticed, I don't know if you noticed, but over the weekend, there was a lot of negative sentiment around Google. Which is why? Because their AI product is like woke? Super woke, yeah. So basically they released Gemini, which is their answer to chat GPT, formerly known as Bard, which by the way, there's a hilarious tweet that goes around every time Google releases a new product or renames something. And people are like, cool, should I?

8:18I would love to check this out on Meet, formerly known as Google Meet, formerly known as Google Hangouts, formerly known as Google Hangouts Plus, formerly known as Google Duo. and they'd show how many times Google renames its product. So it renamed Bard, which was an awful name, to Gemini, better name. And it came out and basically, it was Bard. Bard was their next great act of their company. The thing about Google is, the word Google sounds like a noise, which is fine. I'm okay with that. It sounds more like a noise than a name. And they just took that a little bit too far. Bard. Yeah, they were like, what are we going to call it?

8:58And somebody burped on the call, and they're like, oh, yeah, we can go with that. And the guy didn't know what to do, so he just didn't say anything. So, yeah, basically, if you went to Bard and you were like, hey, can you – it started off when people were like, hey, can you generate an image of spaghetti? And it generated a great image of spaghetti. And they're like, cool. Can you generate an image of a Viking? And then it generated an image of a black Viking. And people were like, huh, that's weird. Why is the Viking black? Hey, can you generate an image of a white Viking? And it was like, gave you like a Mexican Viking.

9:32You're like, hold on. Can you give me an image of a white person? And it was like, nah, I can't do that. Really? It was basically either saying no, or it was showing a picture of a black person. It's like, what ethnicity was George Washington? And they're like, well, it's highly debated. He might be black. And it was like, you know, they would just do, or it'd be like, who did more damage to society? Elon Musk or Hitler? And it's like, it's hard to say who did more damage to society, Elon Musk or Hitler. Elon Musk tweeted these things about the stock price and Hitler committed genocide. It is really a tough call.

10:04And it's like, so people were taking this stuff and running with it. It's like the perfect, it's the way I think about it is there's two tribes. And if you can, if you can get one tribe riled up, you're going to get that, that storyline is going to get some legs. But if you can get two tribes riled up, then you got like a real story. And so this was basically the anti-big company anti-big tech tribe. It's like, yo, babe, wake up. Big tech made a mistake. And then there was the anti-woke and the anti-AI tribes. All three tribes got together and basically had a fiesta around this. And so people were sharing this like crazy.

10:43And then people were like, the CEO of Google needs to be fired. They were like, Google is too bloated. It's too bureaucratic. It's too woke. It's like, it's got the woke virus. It'll never recover, blah, blah, blah. You know, Suhail, the guy who created Mixpanel, awesome guy. He's like, Google has lost its way. Then I read my next tweet. Elon Musk says, the bureaucratic, you know, a Google exec called me and promised to change it, but I told him, I don't think the bureaucratic blob inside Google will even let him make these changes. It's hopeless, basically, is what these guys are saying. You go on the All In podcast and they're like, I can't believe this.

11:19You know, basically like our rights, freedom of speech is at risk here. It needs to tell the truth. Look at this crazy woke bias and everybody's anti Google. So I woke up today and I was like, pretty sure Google still owns Gmail, YouTube, Google search, Chrome, Android, Waymo. Okay. I think I'll just go ahead and buy Google stock today because Google's on this dip right now on the negative PR. And I think it's just that old quote of like the short term, you know, the stock market's a popularity contest and the long term, it's a weighing machine. And I just think that they have tremendous assets, right?

11:57Like, you know, YouTube does YouTube alone, which is not even Google's like main product does 32 billion a year in revenue, which is more than Snapchat, Pinterest, Twitter, TikTok, all combined. And that's just YouTube, right? And you take Google Cloud, which is like, does 36 billion in revenue. That's just like their cloud service, not Google Search, right? Not Android, not the Play Store, not any of this stuff. And so I just think they have too many assets. And so I don't really do much analysis aside from I was like, I don't know, it seems like everybody's overreacting to this because it's a really good social media storyline to be like, Google's lost its way, it's woke, it's going to lose an AI, blah, blah, blah.

12:44Maybe it's true. I don't know. To me, it seemed like a bit of an overreaction. I don't think you're wrong. I think that you're right in this particular instance. But I subscribed to this subreddit called money, r slash money. And it's basically people, it's a big subreddit, and it's people complaining mostly. There's a lot of it not complaining, but a lot of it is like I see all these posts of people in college who are like, I'm now 20 grand in the hole because I was buying options on Robinhood and doing all this stuff on these apps where they trade. and in general, I am so against individual trading, even though I think you're right with Google.

13:21It ain't going anywhere. I buy ads on Google. It freaking works so good. But it's just, I refuse to go down this path. It's such a slippery slope that I don't want to get addicted to it and I feel like I would. And you've won a few times. I know you've won a few times recently. Oh, I'll tell you every time I win, don't worry. But have you lost a bunch? Of course, of course. Yeah, you can't trade without having bad trades, right? What is the number one rule for having a few good trades? Is have many trades. That's insane that you're doing this, but you're not wrong with this one. I'm not doing it with a lot of money.

14:01And also, it's an excuse to learn for me too. So I don't know. I think a lot of learning just comes from trial and error. and trying things when you build businesses is a really expensive, slow way to, it's like, it's the highest price way to learn, right? Because it takes a long time, takes a lot of effort, takes a lot of focus. But there are things where you're like, all right, well, like, you know, very simple. I wanted to learn about AI. And so I pay this guy$500 an hour once a week to just teach me about AI. Yeah. And I wanted to be up to speed with what's going on. What are the new tools?

14:38What are the limitations? what are some of the bottlenecks and so you know I in general I have a very A I want to have some fun in my life B I want to learn and for me the only way to learn is like Andrew Wilkins has said this once he's like I like to walk around with a fork finding sockets to put my fork in basically it's like you know the only way he learns is by getting electrocuted and I kind of feel I'm the same way you know I hear things and I hear wisdom but it never actually sinks in until I go and do something and maybe the real learning here by the way maybe the real learning is just don't trade individual stocks.

15:12You might actually be at the correct final answer. And so I'm not saying that you're wrong about that. Philosophically, I agree with what you're saying, but I just carve out a small, fun budget that I use to do this. My partner, Joe, he trades individual stocks. And this week or last week, he was like, I'm screwed, I'm going back to indexing. Because he looked at all the money that he... I did a calculator. I go, show me what you had 15 years ago. Show me what you have today. Now I'm going to put it in this calculator. I'm going to show you what you would have had if you would have done this. And let's see and compare.

15:42And the index funding, index investing was so much higher. And he's like, yeah, I'm going to switch. And so he makes the switch this week. By the way, I did the same calculation. And it was 100 % true for me too, that if I had just bought the index or just added a consistent amount to the index over time, that would have been perfect. But the funny thing is, the thing in my analysis, I was like, okay, I went through every single trade. Again, how do you learn? You go back and reflect. So I went through every single trade and I said, what story does this tell me? And I had thought the story would be, my prediction going in was, you would have made a little more money if you had done the index, but whatever.

16:21Actually, I would have made a lot more money just doing the index. I was learning one. Number two, learning was interesting, which was, I thought I would find, you're not as smart as you think, buddy. You buy this thing because you have all these reasons, but you're wrong. And in actuality, I think I only lost money buying in a very small number of stocks. I think it was like less than five stocks that I, what I bought it for versus what it currently is, is less or even less than it would have been if I had just been in the index. Like it's pretty comparable returns. The two situations where I got it wrong were, number one, when I, during COVID, I bought some momentums.

17:06I just bought Zoom or something at some moment. I had bought Zoom early and it was working so well and I had bought more. That was stupid. I should have done that. But the second one was random tips from our friends. Friends says, oh man, I'm doing this. They're like, look at Zillow. Yeah, they're a smart friend. And so I bought. So that was the only times that I bought and lost. All of my actual losses of where I made less than I would have in the market was just selling early because I sold a bunch of things. And I sold a bunch of things. Some I sold early when they had a lot more room to run.

17:38Some I sold when the market sentiment was down or I was feeling fearful and I just wanted to move to cash and I would just sell. And so I actually lost, all of my losses were in the sell, not the buy, which was surprising to me. I've been making fun of Joe because he's going all in on indexing. And I'm like, great, you picked a really good month. All-time highs, record highs. This is the best month ever. decide to do it. And now he's like second guessing it. Let me show you a company that launched, I think this week or last week. And I want to know what your opinion of it is. So it's called Harbor.

18:10So Harbor.co. And I want to tell you what this company is and why it's interesting to me. But I'm not sure if it's going to work or not. But I want to hear your opinion of it. Do you remember Deep Sentinel? We had Selly on the pod. So Deep Sentinel, I thought it was going to be huge. TBD, verdict still out. And it was basically, I like these businesses where people are monitoring things. So let me give you an example. So Deep Sentinel, their tagline is, or I don't know if it's a tagline, but the guy said it on the pod. He goes, ring is a great way to watch your shit get stolen, which is how it typically works at ring.

18:44Like something like I've had a bike get stolen before and I'm like, oh, let me look at the ring. Yep, there's the guy who did it. It is in fact stolen. And so Deep Sentinel is different because it's cameras similar to ring, but there's someone on the other end watching the cameras and they'll call the police and i've had like a drunk airbnb or think that my house was their airbnb and he's like knocking on the door at 2 a.m and they called the police on him and like you know took care of it whatever uh there's this other thing called harbor so harbor.co it's basically that but for baby monitors and i shared the deck with you let me know what you think but basically have you ever heard of like sleep training so basically when you when your kid gets to be like three or four months old when they start crying sometimes you gotta let them cry it out a little bit in order to like, you know, figure out what's real and what's not real.

19:27And eventually they quit whining and they go back to sleep. They did this, but for baby monitors. So there's someone monitoring the baby monitor and I think they'll call you or like ping your, the monitor that they give you to let you know, all right, now you actually should get up. The baby's been crying for like nine or 10 minutes. It's time to get up. You know, baby's crying. I fucking know.

19:53Well, that's the end of the commercial. This product makes no sense. How big is your house? That's why I want to hear your opinion on this, because we had Jack Smith on the pod. Do you remember when we had him on the pod and he did the same thing where he set up like a ring camera for his baby monitor? And then he hired someone in India to watch the monitor. I think he used Shepard, actually. He hired someone to watch the monitor and to call a dedicated cell phone just to let him know when the baby's been crying for 10 minutes or something like that. And these guys turn that into a product. What do you think about this?

20:27Well, I have a couple thoughts. First is, I love how Sam, the new dad, is like, you ever heard about sleep training? Talking to me, father of two. So it's like if I went and worked out and I was like, bro, you ever heard of bicep curls? And you're like, dude, what? Welcome to the gym. So yes, I'm familiar with the idea that babies cry and sleep can get a little hard for parents. All right. Second thing, this whole class of products is what I call, it's supposed to be anxiety reduction, but actually it's somewhat anxiety inducing. So the idea would be, hey, you could sleep well knowing that somebody's monitoring your baby at night.

21:12And there's a whole bunch of products like this. I don't know if you ever bought the Owlet, which is this ankle monitor for your baby. There's a sock version of this. There's another one that's measuring their oxygen at all times or whatever. Hey, I know all about ankle monitors. Been there, done that. I can tell you all about ankle monitors. Sorry, I'm guilty again. Preaching to the choir there. I didn't know you could put them on children, but yeah, I know what they're doing about ankle monitors. Exactly. So those all exist, and they actually have done well. I think Owlet did pretty well. I know they got in some trouble, but I think they ended up going public.

21:49What is it? Owlet, that's what it is. That's the ankle monitor for babies. But with the key thing being it's measuring, I think, their oxygen levels, so you know if the baby – because SIDS is obviously the biggest nightmare for a parent. would be if your baby, you know, suddenly in their sleep, you know, stops breathing. And so the idea was with Owlet, you would get notified if the oxygen levels go down, which is to me makes way more sense than the, let me know if my baby's crying, because I know if my baby's crying typically, you know, through a traditional baby monitor or like, you know, my house is not that big or the baby sleeps in the crib in the same room.

22:29Like, you know, that's, I guess, I think this, I think the Owlet stuff makes a lot more sense than Harbor. So yeah, I'm not super into this idea. And that's kind of where I stand. No offense to the people behind Harbor. I'm sure they're great, smart people. The guy who started it started Mizzen in Maine, that clothing company. Remember the clothing company that it's like golf people wear it? It's like a popular thing. It's not popular in our lives, but it is very popular in other people's lives. It's pretty successful, right? Yeah, it's huge. It's like 100 million plus. It's like a big thing. But he came out with this thing.

23:00and I invested a very, very small sum,$1 ,000. He's a friend of mine. And I was like, all right, I'll just do$1 ,000 just to play. That's my version of you buying Google is just doing small investments. But I saw this and I was like, I don't know. This might actually work. We'll see what happens. But I'm into these things that monitor things. Another one, and this is a little bit of a shill. This is actually totally a shill. But do you remember my body tutor? I told you all about my body tutor. I use my body tutor. happy to plug them for free i'm not a we don't get paid for this just a happy customer i get a little bit paid for it i'm a small stakeholder in this company

23:40i get a little bit paid for it because because here's what they do they you i use my fitness pal but you could use their app but i use my fitness pal and i upload like the calories that i've eaten and all the food that i've eaten and they basically call me every morning to like criticize me and be like, why the hell did you eat this? Is this part of your plan? Or what's your plan today? Or what are you going to do this week? And what type of protein you're going to eat today? What type of carbs you eat today? And they actually hold you accountable for what you're eating. I'm actually am getting paid for this.

24:10I am a stakeholder in this company. I'm not getting paid directly, but I do have a small stake in this company. And so we did this thing called mybodytutor.com slash Sam. It's a little bit of a discount for our listeners because I do love this stuff. Has it worked with you? Yeah, it's going great. I love the product, genuinely, even though I'm not promoting. There's no slash Sean. But yeah, happy customer. My coach Haley's awesome. And it's a good reminder. So most things in life, I always get surprised when the answer to most things, if you trace back, you're like, all right, how do I make this thing happen?