In short
The Newcomer Podcast - Episode Summary
Episode Title
Tony Fadell Unfiltered on Apple, OpenAI & the Next Big Device
Hosts
- Eric Newcomer
- Tom Dotan
- Madeline Renbarger
Guest
- Tony Fadell: Influential figure in hardware design, known for his work at Apple and Nest.
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Key Themes and Discussions
- The Future of Tech Devices
- Device Formats: Discussion on potential device formats, including pins, pens, headphones, and existing devices like smartphones.
- AI Integration: Fadell emphasizes that AI can enhance various hardware applications, requiring contextually aware devices. He categorizes AI applications into two types:
- With a screen
- Without a screen
- Contextual Understanding
- Importance of Context: Fadell stresses the need for AI devices to have both historical and real-time context to improve user interaction.
- Data Gathering: Devices should gather a range of contextual data (location, social surroundings, environmental factors) to enhance responsiveness and user experience.
- User Preferences and Privacy Concerns
- Privacy: Fadell acknowledges the mixed feelings people have about devices accessing personal data (audio, video). While some see it as beneficial, others are concerned about privacy.
- Adoption Challenges: He reflects on the societal readiness for such devices, citing how societal norms influence technology acceptance.
- Apple and Leadership Speculation
- Rumors of CEO Position: Discussion about Fadell being rumored as a potential candidate for Apple's next CEO.
- Vision for Leadership: If in charge, he would prioritize innovation in mobility, accessories, and redefined user experiences, particularly concerning Apple’s product lines.
- OpenAI and Industry Dynamics
- OpenAI's Strategy: Fadell critiques OpenAI’s approach, suggesting they are taking a "too big to fail" strategy. He expresses skepticism about their long-term sustainability given their aggressive funding rounds.
- Future of AI: He sees a path forward for Google in AI due to its resources and infrastructure, while viewing OpenAI’s model as riskier and potentially unsustainable.
- Broader Implications of AI
- General AI vs. Contextual AI: Fadell discusses the challenges of general-purpose AI systems, suggesting a shift towards more specialized models that can reliably perform tasks without hallucinations (errors in AI responses).
- Future of AI Integration: He envisions a future where multiple AI systems work in tandem across different devices, enhancing user experiences through better contextual understanding.
- Smart Home Technology
- Current State: Fadell remarks on the slow progression of smart home devices and anticipates significant advancements in the next five to six years.
- Personal Experience: He shares his plans for a smart home remodel, emphasizing the need for integrated systems that can operate seamlessly together.
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Key Takeaways
- Innovation over Features: Future devices should focus on solving real user problems rather than simply adding features.
- Contextual Integration: A successful AI device will need to understand and utilize context effectively to enhance user interaction.
- Privacy as a Priority: Consumer concerns about privacy will shape how technology companies design and market future devices.
- Leadership in Tech: The next wave of innovation may come from leaders willing to rethink traditional product designs and business strategies.
Closing Thoughts Fadell's insights reflect a deep understanding of the challenges and opportunities in the tech landscape, stressing that the future will demand devices that are not only functional but also contextually aware and user-centric. As the conversation closes, he points to a future with potentially groundbreaking devices that blend seamlessly into users' lives, enhancing both functionality and experience.
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Episode Details
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Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOTech Device Predictions
0:45 to 2:30
Tony Fadell discusses potential future tech devices and their formats.
“We talked about what he would do if he ever got that top job.”
AI's Role and Input
2:30 to 5:00
Exploration of how AI interacts with devices and the importance of context for input.
“And context windows getting longer and longer and longer.”
Understanding Output in AI
5:00 to 7:30
Discussion on the various forms of output needed for effective AI interaction.
The Pen Device Conundrum
7:30 to 10:00
Tony analyzes the implications and limitations of a pen-type AI device.
“And so when you start to break down the applications, you start to, and the environment you're in, Like, are you in your office?”
Privacy Concerns in AI
10:00 to 13:00
Insights into societal attitudes towards data privacy and AI's reliance on contextual information.
“You don't feel this impulse that it's sort of, the deficit is its lack of context on what I'm doing and that it would be, you don't feel that way.”
Exploring Apple's Product Strategy
14:00 to 15:00
Discussing the need for new devices like pins alongside existing iPhones.
Apple's Technological Capability
15:00 to 16:00
Delving into Apple's chip expertise and potential for new device creation.
“Do you buy that Apple's working on a pin?”
AI in Apple's Product Design
16:00 to 17:20
Examining how AI influences Apple's product offerings and user experience.
“Like imagine cameras coming out of your AirPods.”
Challenges with AI and Apple's Strategy
17:20 to 19:10
Discussing the limitations of AI and its impact on Apple's capabilities.
“And that's the thing that, you know, has been really important for the reason why Apple is where it is today.”
AI Applications and Future Directions
19:10 to 23:20
Exploring the future of AI applications and their implications for consumer devices.
“So getting back to the LLM specifically, if Apple has very, very specific models for consumers in certain contexts, it can work really well.”
Show all 31 chapters
The Concept of Smart Homes
23:20 to 26:50
Exploring the current state of smart home technology and challenges faced.
“It's like kind of Web 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0.”
Building a Modern Smart Home
26:50 to 28:00
Discussing personal experiences and challenges in designing a smart home.
“I know you were talking the big device questions here.”
Self-Playing Piano Technology
28:00 to 29:25
Learn about the innovative integration of MIDI and smart home audio systems for a self-playing piano experience.
“So it's an analog piano getting digitally recorded and streamed all through the house.”
Smart Home Integration Challenges
29:25 to 31:07
Explore the complexities of integrating audio, lighting, and voice controls in a smart home.
“But then there's all the switching to make the Sonos move from one thing to another.”
Designing for Shared Spaces
31:07 to 33:11
Understand the importance of designing smart home interfaces that cater to a variety of users.
“do you do anything like mechanical like i don't know are there meals being made in automated There's mechanical lighting and TVs that pop out.”
The Future of Smart Home Devices
33:11 to 34:35
Discuss the evolution of smart home technology and its potential to revolutionize living spaces.
“obviously they were expensive, but they're fundamentally mass market.”
Investing in New Companies
34:35 to 36:04
Discover Tony Fadell's insights on evaluating and working with emerging companies in various sectors.
“So I think that the ones that are going to be successful are the ones who are going to finally deliver the Nest vision that we really had.”
The Role of VR in Design
36:04 to 38:25
Learn about the practical applications of VR in collaborative design and its limitations.
“like today i was working with a company and helping them with apple i'm a shadow ceo at a couple of companies.”
Predictions for New Devices
38:25 to 39:59
Listen to predictions on what companies might produce the next revolutionary device in tech.
“Everybody uses us to do car design, shoe design, furniture design.”
Rethinking Mobility Solutions
39:59 to 42:00
Engage with ideas about how Apple could redefine mobility and transportation with new products.
“because an iPad, you just can't slip in your pocket.”
Apple's Opportunity in Wearables
42:00 to 43:36
Discussion on Apple's potential in the wearables market and missed opportunities with smart accessories.
“I think mobility is something that should be addressed and Apple could address it in a very different way than it and has all kinds of brands.”
Nostalgia and the iPod's Return
43:36 to 45:42
Exploration of the nostalgic value of the iPod and the desire for a simpler music experience.
“that they have everything they need to make an incredible ring.”
CEO Speculations and Apple's Future
45:42 to 46:43
Tony Fadell discusses speculations about Apple's next CEO and his willingness to help if called upon.
Evaluating AI Companies: OpenAI and Beyond
46:43 to 49:21
Insights on the viability of AI companies and the distinction between platforms and applications.
“They have to really target applications to be great businesses.”
The Competitive Landscape of AI Technology
49:21 to 55:11
Discussion on the competitive nature of AI technology, focusing on OpenAI, Google, and others.
“But they've written stuff that's suggested as much.”
The Future of OpenAI and Potential Bankruptcy
55:11 to 56:01
Speculation on OpenAI's financial sustainability and the risks associated with their funding.
“And there's going to be no real money in it.”
OpenAI's Financial Struggles and Unit Economics
56:01 to 56:55
Learn about the financial challenges faced by OpenAI and the implications of negative unit economics.
“You know, people are saying they should make a phone.”
Elon Musk's Business Strategy: A Conglomerate Vision
56:55 to 57:47
Discuss Elon Musk's approach to business and how he's building a conglomerate with his companies.
“Look, Elon plays a very, very different game.”
Ethics and Leadership in Technology
57:47 to 59:25
Explore the challenges of ethical leadership in the tech industry and the importance of high moral standards.
“Which is like lose focus and go do devil's.”
The Future of Device Innovation and Market Trends
59:25 to 1:01:54
Gain insights into emerging device trends and the future landscape of technology innovation.
“And I'm also a guy who, you know, maybe I couldn't play in this game because I'm much more of the high moral standards, high ethics, high, you know, when I say you're going to be my partner, you're my partner.”
Closing Thoughts and Reflections
1:01:54 to 1:03:40
Wrap up the discussion with reflections on technology and a personal touch from the guest.
“I mean, if you were, you know, I don't know, this smart engineer kid out of college, like, oh, I want to make my name in devices.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Apple has never done marketing bullshit before. and I saw that was complete bullshit. I mean, do you think OpenAI goes bankrupt? Look, if they're asking for$50 billion now, like how fast are you going to burn through that? Is that what you would focus on if you were an Apple CEO? I have many things that I would do if I was an Apple CEO. All right, give us some of them. Is the next big tech device a pin, a pen, your headphones, or the device that you've already got in your pocket? Today's guest is Tony Fidel, godfather of hardware design, who brought some of the most important consumer electronics to life at Apple and then at Google with Nest.
0:36I sat with him and got his thoughts on how Apple and the rest of the big technology companies are looking, even as he's rumored to be a contender for Apple's next CEO. We talked about what he would do if he ever got that top job. We talked about why he thinks open AI is building a strategy of being too big to fail and all those unfiltered thoughts without the constraints of a corporate PR department. This is the Newcomer Podcast.
1:07Tony Fidel, great to have you on the podcast. Thanks for joining me. It's great to be here. Great to be here. We're in an insane moment for the future of devices. So I'm super excited to talk to you. It's pins, pens, like what do we want? So I really want to get direct into it. I mean, there are rumors, I think this week, that Apple is thinking about a pin in the wake of Humane working on a pin. I have friends, and I think there's been some reporting now that maybe Johnny Ive and OpenAI are thinking about a pin. I'll try and press you on what you think about the particulars. But from first principles, what do you think is most likely to be the AI native device format?
1:51AI can be applied to many things. Yeah. And AI is great for certain applications with certain hardware components around it. Okay. So there's AI with a screen and there's AI without a screen. In all cases, it needs to have audio, right? But what AI needs mostly is it needs context. Okay. Okay. So you have to look at the input side and you have to look at the output side. so first let's talk about the input side the more context you give any kind of llm and i'm not saying they're the panacea there's going to be lots of models beyond uh llm so i want to make sure i'm very clear and i'm not the llm yeah yeah yeah it's we're going to get agi with it it's all bullshit okay i'm concerned so um you first start with the input and if we know everything and you've been hearing about over the year, two years, so fast here now, it's like we've been hearing about context windows.
2:55And context windows getting longer and longer and longer. And then now we're ragging all your data. And Gemini just announced yesterday that you can bring in all of your Gmail and all your Google Photos and G Drive. I know, I feel like I'm being reckless. I've connected everything to Anthropic already. It's like, yeah, search through my email, go for it. Right, exactly. And So the more context, the better. So there's one which is context about what you've done. Right. Okay. And that's, you know, and that makes it better. But then there's the context of what you're doing. Right. And knowing that really, really clearly.
3:30And so what you want and, you know, what your smartphone has is you want to know your, and just like advertising and all the other, you know, websites and social wanted before, it's no different. They wanted your location. They would love your audio all the time. They want your camera all the time. They want what you're typing, who you're nearby, what Wi-Fi networks and Bluetooth things are there, and what other devices are around you, and even what time of day, what's the lighting, what's the weather, are you indoors, outdoors. Why is that? the more context you have in the moment, combined with what it knows about you and what's around you in the moment, you don't have to ask it when you make a query, whether that's a voice query or a text query or whatever the query might be.
4:23It knows it's like, oh, you're at this place at this time around these people with these resources, with this kind of weather. And when you ask a short question it's like bing as opposed to back in the siri days and the alexa days you had to tell it everything because it had no context so in this case the better the interface becomes the more historical context as well as real-time context it has to be able to so it's like we know what we're doing right now i can i can briefly say two words to you and you probably understand like oh look at that plant over there you know what i mean something like that that's what it needs to know to be able to give you much quicker answers like it's in the room but do you buy like do you think most humans will ultimately want some ai to have access to their current audio like do you think that is something that needs to be i think i think there's obviously use cases for that and also for video i don't see and all the other all the other sensor suites for sensor fusion out there to make it work so in certain context in certain applications you'll want to do that certain people be no way right you know people put the tape over their laptop cameras and everything else so it's just it's going to be an individual preference on what it is you know i remember the glass hole days of you know google glass we're like you're not recording me and now we're running with meta glasses right so it's all a social context awareness thing where you know it it's not just about when the technology is ready it's about when a particular segment of society is ready to adopt it i remember this from my general magic days when we were making the iphone 15 years too early you know nobody knew the problems we were solving because they didn't have those problems right but the idea of like a pin type device is that mostly would you buy is there a pin type device sure there's a pin type device there's also a pin type device now it's called plod but is that trying to solve the social problem of saying i'm recording like why can't the phone just do the recording we already have it with us okay so so first we were talking about the input i want to talk about the output right and then there's the form okay okay so let's talk about input now we'll talk about output then we'll talk about forms okay i know you want to talk about pins but let's talk about output yeah so there's really great times when you have and this is what you know i really experienced when i was working with google glass and these kinds of things output is really important in very contextual ways so if you're on the move you're going i see people out here walking into you know in new york walking into polls and stuff because they're sitting here looking at their thing or they're on their bike you know doing it or driving worst case so and they're all distracted from that and and a lot of times you just want audio and you want to have a much better audio interface right versus a display but the best way to represent visual information is visually right you know we've heard people trying to communicate okay, you know, I'm changing this schematic or whatever.
7:21And they say, I'm going to change this and this. And they're like, oh, and you just send them a drawing. They're like, oh, now I get it. Yeah. Right. So you have to understand the context you're in and what's the best way to represent that output. Okay. Is it visually? Is it audited? It could be like vibrations. It could be many different ways. And so when you start to break down the applications, you start to, and the environment you're in, Like, are you in your office? Are you in your home? Are you walking? Are you in a bus? Are you in a train? Are you in a plane? Whatever. And then you start to understand the applications and the ways of representing that output that makes sense in that given situation.
8:02For output, I understand like AirPods or earphones as an output device for AI. I guess part of why I was limited in the thing is like the pin and the pen format, I don't see what the output is. Like to me, they mostly exist as input devices. You hit the nail on that. You absolutely. And that was my next point, which is the form. Okay. And so what's going on with a pen, with a pin, with whatever. in the case of let's say it's a pen at open ai because that's i've heard the same thing and i know some people working on things like that there and they used to work for me it's a pen so and i also worked with johnny a long time for a decade right so i think i understand it and i probably think it's something like a pen but it can also be glasses and other things yeah but given johnny's predisposition for how he has to do something very different right so he's got to do that because he'll have some story around it's got to be a pen and maybe it'll be like the noto pen do you remember the noto pen the noto pen actually had a pad of paper and you could just it was like a digital pen you just write on paper and the noto would keep all of the right the things and it would then create a pdf of that thing that you could then you know do uh text to speech and stuff like that how ai is bringing us back to our humanity of course there's going to be this whole big flowery oh my god we're getting away from the phone and blah blah blah and all that diarrhea you so what really happens though is that the reason why it has it's it's a pen for a story okay but it doesn't have output right because at the end of the day the best form of output is the thing you already have with you which is your smartphone right okay it does the best visual output you're not going to carry yet another screen you might have a couple of leds or a very very tiny thing on whatever this other thing is for status or whatever right but it's not going to replace the phone it can't replace that's the the bullshit thing of humane we're going to kill the phone it was like that was the stupidest marketing message i've ever heard because you're not going to kill it so you have to be a companion to it just like airpods just like uh apple watches it's a companion to a phone right so the reason why it's in this form factor is because they need all the sensor suites why do they need the sensor suites because apple's not going to give them access to them on the phone so they just don't want to be disintermediated by apple they have to buy a whole new device no no they're saying you have to get the device because they need to get all the context right to get all the real-time input so they can feed it back to the servers to give you the because all the security of bluetooth security video security the dots all the gps coordinates when they when you have to ask apple for permission right and and the user permission for all those things you go oh my god they're hyper tracking us right as opposed to it's one network link whether it's a bluetooth or wi-fi thing you know it's most likely bluetooth to your device that then does goes back to the network it's one thing yeah i'm just connecting like my headphones right but it's got gps everything else in it right so it's just sucking up all your context and throwing away and getting rid of all those privacy concerns you see right so it makes it real simple and people go oh yeah it just does it and you don't understand right it's sucking everything it possibly can suck right to get back to open ai to get around all the restrictions if you're an ai true believer you want all the con you too sort of want it to have all the context you have if you're you if we start to have a relationship with our own chatbot where it's like, I really depend on you.
11:41I want you to know what I'm doing. You don't feel this impulse that it's sort of, the deficit is its lack of context on what I'm doing and that it would be, you don't feel that way. You're an early adopter. Right. But do you feel that way? Most of the world isn't. Right, right. Most of the world is like, what the fuck are you doing with my data? Right. Right. So am I, I'm, I am, I'm a late early adopter. Okay. I have learned how these products are made. I've watched this stuff. Right. I didn't adopt iQMane. I knew how bad it was because when I had the first meeting, when there were four people, I was like, this thing's going nowhere.
12:17The same thing happened with various other devices. I'm like, I don't have time for this crap. Same thing happened with Rabbit. I was like, what is this thing? Right. I met with Jesse. I'm like, nah. So the issue is you want to be a late enough early adopter, not so crazy that you're just wasting your time. So I'm on that side. And then I also look at all the data stuff because I'm also pretty wise and I know how this data stuff is used. And I'm in between. You know, you just said you have your first child, a daughter, right? It's your first child. Yes. Three and a half months. Congratulations.
12:55Thank you. I remember a marked way difference in the way I thought about the world before I had kids and after I had kids. And most of these founders, that was including Larry and Sergey and Mark Zuckerberg, all those guys, think about the world before they had kids, before they were married in a very different way. I want everything all the time. I'll give away all my privacy. I don't care what happens with all this data. As soon as you have kids and you start hearing about defects and you start hearing about social engineering and you start hearing about all this other stuff, you start changing your view on how much data you want sucked up.
13:31Right. Okay. and how you're being protected. And there's a very, and I know for a fact, because I worked with these guys, some of these founders, that they think about the world differently and they wish they would have made some different moves and different decisions early on and would like to go back, but they can't. So I'm just saying, going back on your data thing, it's very different. It depends on who you are. I'm still on that journey. For my daughter, we have Tiny Beans, which is like a private app just for our family. So I can see you start using products. in terms okay so if the pen is really an end run around the control of the iphone why would apple need a pin like they they have the iphone how does that story oh because you might be on the device using it it might be also a lot of times you don't want to have the device there in the middle because you're saying like it's it can also be ambient all the time because your thing's going to be in your pocket so there is there are some like the form of having this other thing that if you choose to wanted to watch it because we've watched these life recorders before you know 10 years ago there's these life recorders this is just another form of that's how it gets positioned it's like don't forget any moment yeah you know plod's doing that now with their their voice one and this one i actually don't know that one plod's out of the uk and it's it's you know granola yeah yeah of course it's basically granola but as a wearable are you an investor or in no i'm not No, okay.
14:57You just brought it up. No, no, no, no, no. I'm not an investor. Do you buy that Apple's working on a pin? I'm sure. I hope to God they're working on something. Right. You know. Right. They need to be working on a little bit. But knowing their chip, their chip expertise, Johnny Saruji and the team, they're incredibly awesome. Right. Knowing the mechanicals, knowing that they've made the watch. Right. Right. And they're making, you know, the tracker, all the other stuff. What's the tracker, sorry? You know, the Apple AirTag. Oh, yeah, yeah. They have AirTag. They have all this really, really miniature custom silicon and all the AirPod custom silicon.
15:37They can make one of these things really easy compared to anybody else because they have all the expertise to make. An incredible piece of hardware. They have to get the software right, but the hardware, the connectivity, they have their own network stack. They could make an awesome one because they have all the camera technology, too. So either it's going to be something you sit on the desk or you wear and you sit on the desk or whatever. It's like, duh. It's like, or you build it into your AirPods Pro. Like imagine cameras coming out of your AirPods. You're using could. Or it's like, how much do you expect Apple to deliver, I guess?
16:11You know, you're talking to somebody, I'm deep in the Apple ecosystem, my laptop, AirPods, watch, phone. But then I think I bought the phone that was sold on AI. And it's one of the most egregious misleads, perhaps, in ever marketing a product ever. When I saw AI first laptop, AI first phone, I was ready to tweet something that was like really, really nasty. And I pulled back because I'm like, you know, Apple has never done marketing bullshit before. And I saw that was complete bullshit. Right. You know, and I was like, I was holding back. So, you know, hopefully they're finding new religion and going back to the old real smart days, which is under-promised and over-deliver.
16:52What do you think they can do well right now and what do you think is holding them back? What can they do well right now? Oh, chips, low-level software, devices. It's really, really, you know, Apple Vision Pro is an abject failure. But it's an incredible technical marvel from a technology point of view. So they can make great stuff. It's do they have the product chops like they used to to be able to create the full stack, create the incredible user experience and deliver all those pieces, the puzzle in the middle necessary to pull it all together. And that's the thing that, you know, has been really important for the reason why Apple is where it is today.
17:36To what extent do you think just the underlying capability of AI is holding Apple back, right? For a great user experience, you want sort of the 100 % case. A lot of people talk about some of the ChatGPT capabilities. It's almost like the self-driving 90%. It can do most of what you want, but then the more you drill into a problem, the more you start hitting problems. And so if you're trying to set up these consumer loops where it's like every time I step into my house, you do this, and the AI gets it right 90 % of the time, can Apple be expected to deliver that consumer experience that people want?
18:11Well, the very first thing to understand is LLMs have fundamental problems. Right. They have fundamental problems in the way they're created, and that's why they hallucinate. And unless they're de-scoped and they're really trained on very, very contextually specific information like medical or legal or general consumer stuff, instead of these incredibly huge models that can hallucinate because they don't know whether you're talking medical, legal, whatever, it tries to be a know-it-all. You would never hire a know-it-all in the real world. We can't stand know-it-alls. Right. I admit what I don't know.
18:46Right. And Chachapiti never seems to. It always gives you an answer. And it doesn't know whether it's right or wrong. And so, you know, we're invested in various companies in the medical domain like Nabla and other things that have very, very specific context and very, very specific guardrails for what they will do and what they will answer. And they will not answer stuff. It's when you're trying to make these general purpose ones, that's when it's a problem. So getting back to the LLM specifically, if Apple has very, very specific models for consumers in certain contexts, it can work really well.
19:23It's when you apply these very, very broad models and you don't know what's going to come out, then that is where the problem is. There's still models and other things beyond LLMs, even highly contextually constrained LLMs, trained LLMs that are coming, that are going to get around a lot of those things. But right now, everybody's blah, blah, blah. LLMs, AGI, bigger and bigger models, which I think is bullshit. What's coming? Well, there's world models coming. Right. So world models combined with LLMs. So that's understanding physics, understanding chemistry, all this stuff that we know because there are real rules, mathematics.
19:59around those things you know today chet gpt can't even draw a face of a clock right or understand what a clock says because it doesn't graphically think it's easy for us for a graphical clock not a digital one and so it's like though that a world model would go oh that's a graphic i'm going to use this model you know this is how it works you would build that stuff we'll give these models tools where it says for this question you you go off to this software or this technique to solve so much. Yeah, absolutely. And then the language model is good for what the language model is good for, as opposed to trying to think it reasons about chemistry, because it doesn't have a real basic chemistry model.
20:38When we started this conversation, I think you were saying, you know, audio and voice is sort of at the core of what AI wants to consume. Where, or maybe, is that fair? Or, I mean, clearly listening to everything we're doing is part of what these devices we've talked about. Where do you think about sort of the AirPods and earbuds in terms of the AI device story? Well, you know, there's edge devices, which are AirPods and, you know, and phones and these kinds of things. I think of the edge of the edge first. Okay. So the edge of the edge is the very, very fringe of like are you speaking a word how do i do noise cancellation how do i do speaker focusing those kinds of things okay there is ai that can do that stuff really well your ear does that you do that you turn your head you focus in so we can apply ai into each of these at the edge of the edge devices to do much better intelligence to help us be able to filter out noise from right Right.
21:42To do the device's core task. The very basic task of separating signal from noise, whether that's visually or auditorily or other things of that nature. So we need to get there. So that's the first level of AI applied. Then there's the AI above that, which is labeling, interpretation, those kinds of things. And that can be done on device in some cases or be done with the companion, which would most likely be your smartphone. own so that's another set of ai then there's another one on top of that which is like okay what's the reasoning let's make let's get the context and then figure out what's going on so there's all these levels yeah and we need to break down the ai and levels just like your brain has many different different uh you know uh centers in your brain to do this this this this this you're going to start seeing ai becoming much more diverse and not just one big thing and we're seeing that with self-driving cars already right i know we're all over the map no i know i love it the ai wave creates uh this broken thinking because you have companies that have they want to justify valuation so they need to sell something right and they have the story which is ai and so in some ways i'm complicit in what they're doing which is like think from the need for an ai device out rather than like some human problem and then sort of build the device correct up and that's why this conversation ends up being chaotic because we're shifting between from the technology to the use right technology it's like we're in search of a but but don't you think there is this moment to sell the consumer on a new device they've heard about this technology they're they're sort of open to adopt a new sort of way of behaving and so people are searching for what what what device can we get deliver them in this moment to me these devices a pin a pen or whatever are enablers right they're not a solution right and where we were going was i was saying that we need more context specific llm drug so that consumers can get a reliable experience without hallucinations what that means is you have to come up with the applications and constrain the application to better understand what it is you want it's not just a know-it-all that's going to go and try everything so when we when you switch into certain applications you want that because why at the end of the day we're not where we want to be it's not we're not at her yet everybody wants her you know right the the thing but we don't have the technology yet so we have to creep into it right which means application more application specific context specific llms for given workflows right and not just it's a general anything right device okay And so we're going to see much.
24:30It's like kind of Web 1.0 to 2.0 to 3.0. We've had to make these leaps because we have to have the technology to move along with it. We had Siri many years ago. We've had Alexa. Do you think we're still far away from the sort of voice communicated personal assistant that people talk to to engage with a computer? Yes, because why? What I see is you're going to have your federation of your devices. That's going to be everything for your laptop, your TV, your game machine, all the things you carry on you, watches, whatever it is. You're going to have that. Then you're going to have a smart agent in the background really understanding which device you're on, which users you're on, and all the data and all the context, and then be able to switch how it's working based on those things.
25:16Today, what we're saying is put everything on a device and it's going to work or put all the sensors here and put all of the smarts in the cloud and everything else is just dumb in between. We're going to build into this much more multiple AI world where edge of the edge, the edge devices, the federation of edge devices and the cloud all work together to produce the her application we're here. that we would love to have, but we're just not going to get there today from what everyone's telling you. Just because of the capability of LLMs? Yeah, because we're just not, we don't have the world models.
25:53We don't have the sensors. When you look at these humanoid robots, everyone's like, oh, they do flips and tricks and everything. Great, we can do that, but we don't have the necessary sensing and actuation necessary to be able to get the data to be able to, right? And they need world models to do anything Anything like a humanoid stuff that people are hoping it'll do. Remember, self-driving cars came out in the late 2008. Right. We're just there now. Right. No, it's great. Right? And we've spent billions and billions and we're now getting, and it's just getting rolled out. And there's still$300 ,000 cars with massive sensors and compute.
26:33And those are massive edge devices plus a whole set of coordination in the cloud. Right. So that's what we need to do. And we need to do it at a very cheap level and battery efficient level. Right. And it's going to take time to get there. Right. What is the state of the smart home today? Or what? Okay. I know you were talking the big device questions here. Like, it fits into this AI conversation. But like, what is your read on just the success or failure of building, you know, smart home devices? Okay. I'm going to build a remodel of a big new smart home thing for myself. So I'm tracking the very latest.
27:15And now I'm not in it like I used to be. Does that include custom devices or you're just sourcing the best stuff that exists? Well, I'd say that there's the best of what exists from the device side. But then there's custom ways of putting it all together. It's like what we just talked about, the self-driving car thing. You have to, and when I'm designing this thing, I have to think about the devices, the low level network, the application level network, what's in the server, what's in the cloud. Like, and it's still very, very difficult if you want to pull off what, again, the smart home, the Jetson smart home that we all think about.
27:49Is that what you're trying to get? Yeah, and I just know better. Like, I'm like, okay, I'm going to wire everything and make sure I have thread border routers in the necessary places and everything else. What are the main things you want the house to be able to do? Oh, right now, it's just the simplest things. like i have a you know i'm the the in in in this case i have a um a self-playing piano okay right so i'm i'm i'm pumping midi into it okay so i pump midi and i put songs from the net or from locally it midi into it to then it self-plays and then it has it's mic'd and the mics are then a to deed into a dante audio network which then distributes all the way through the entire house or whatever zones I want through Dante into all of these Dante-amplified speakers around the house and the Sonos can pump in.
28:40And so I can have a player piano. Right. And the keys are pressing. The keys are pressing. So it's an analog piano getting digitally recorded and streamed all through the house. And sorry, what's pressing the key? Is it like an old, it's not an old school player piano or it is? No, no, no. It's a modern, it's a modern regular grand piano. Right. But it has actuators on it. Oh, okay. And it plays the songs just as, because they record it from a professional. Yeah. So it's like you have a concert pianist with you. Wow, interesting. And then you're micing it, and then you're amplifying it and playing it throughout the house.
29:17So it feels like you have a concert pianist in the house at all times. Have you executed on that yet, or is this still a dream? Oh, no. It's in the mix, and it can work. Yeah. It absolutely can work. Okay. But then there's all the switching to make the Sonos move from one thing to another. And how do you, in which zones did the player piano go to? Right. And are you like a speaker head? Like, do you have this sort of fancy old school speakers or you're using like Sonos? Well, no, I'm using Sonos ports to get the two amplified speakers for certain either in ceiling speakers without, you don't see the grills.
29:52you see in some cases i don't like them but there's some cases in certain wet locations you need the grills and other things where it's el acoustics like dolby atmos right okay yeah you know whole thing right and you have to worry about all those levels of networks to make all that stuff work right you know got avc you got ac there's so many different things like i have um plus i also have full lighting so there's a dmx lighting control like you do on stages um there's also uh the midi over ethernet and everything runs over ethernet so it's midi over ethernet uh uh lighting control over ethernet dante over ethernet uh lighting control over ethernet right right so it's it's a full-on you know next generation system anything else your smart home well it's gonna have thread of course because we did we what is threads so thread we had basically invented it at next and now thread is the bluetooth equipment uh equivalent for mesh networking for entire house so it mesh networks an entire house for low speed data and control very very low latency so you can do light switches light bulbs you know sensors everything else that can be battery operated for 10 years that kind of thing and it's very resilient so do you do anything like mechanical like i don't know are there meals being made in automated There's mechanical lighting and TVs that pop out.
31:19Things, lights drop down. Robo lights that move. Yeah, that's the most of the mechanical. Except mechanical locks and, you know, and, you know, and NFC based door locks, that kind of stuff. And what do you use for the actual like voice communication with your house? That is to be determined. it's a bake-off or what do you mean well nothing's ready yet right right so you have to next generation alexa is not there yet right so it's it's set up that's the next layer on top of all of this infrastructure the next layer is on top of that and that's tbd but are you typing it what's what's going to happen you have to make a decision right no i don't why because well you're gonna have to talk to it what are you going to use when is this house supposed to be ready to go what are you going to use you use buttons just like cars are coming from screens you're not using voice right now you're not ready to use voice no it's because it's fucking bullshit so you just have like modules like i don't feel like having everyone scream at me and you know turn on the lights you don't have any of that you know look this is the other thing i learned from smart home right okay is that most people who design the smart home design it for themselves It's like for single guys.
32:37I want one button that does this and one button that does this. And then when you have kids or you have friends over or you have a wife or partner with you. And they're like, I don't want that button. I want this button. Everyone has their own one button interface. So you have to design and understand just like anything. It's not just you. You have to design this whole world when it's a shared space. versus your own AI, you know, her space. It's a very different thing. I mean, one of the things that's amazing about the devices you guys produced at Apple, obviously they were expensive, but they're fundamentally mass market.
33:17You know, it feels like the billionaire phone is the phone that sort of the middle class American is able to afford. I mean, the portrait you're painting is not that, you know, where it's like with the home. And that's sort of like old school electronics. Oh, my stuff's really crazy, but you can make a much easier version. Think about like sort of getting the home to that. Because on some level, it's what you want too, which is a device that's made that sort of works, that solves some of these problems without the sort of having to cobble. I want less screens in my home. I don't want more screens.
33:48I hate screens. Right. Frankly, I hate screens. I don't want them in the home. Why hasn't the home had that sort of like mass market, amazing electronic work yet? Oh, because we're still in the days of like, you know, remember, Wi-Fi didn't even exist until 2001, too, right? We thread just finally got, even though it started in 2011, it's just now there. We're still building all the base layers and linking everything. And then, and we're now going to get the LLMs and voice recognition, all that stuff, to then put it all together. But it's still on the verge, just like the self-driving car was when?
34:28that smart home like that is you got to give it another i think five to six years for what we think of when you think smart home you want it to be i think it's going to be there just set up your home to make sure it what what company do you think is best positioned i have no idea it's five six years no because the thing that i learned at nest was all these sensors and smart plugs and all that other stuff there's no money in it there's absolutely no money in that stuff that's why you go online and you know and that's why there's you know um because people are only willing to buy like 20 more expensive yeah because they're like i have a switch in my wall why do i need anything else and any crazy guy like me doing this other thing it's just not a big enough market it's not a big enough market so nobody wants to play in that space and so ikea is finally you know to tell you the truth because they're using thread and they're using matter and that kind of stuff So IKEA is starting, but it's just starting.
35:23It's all nascent. So I think that the ones that are going to be successful are the ones who are going to finally deliver the Nest vision that we really had. But it's still, you know, if I was, I would be rebuilding Nest right now, you know, and because in three to four years, you can be there to get what we've been talking about that we had the vision for in 2010, 11. and you're obviously investing right now with it do you still have the entrepreneur bug like do you think you have another great company in you oh i have over a hundred great companies in me right now i i we you know i've invest directly in many many things and i invest indirectly in many things so i have over 100 companies now 100 and something companies where i'm working with them every day like today i was working with a company and helping them with apple i'm a shadow ceo at a couple of companies.
36:14I'm doing product design at companies. So I get to do this in many different domains. What's it mean to be a shadow CEO? So there's the CEO and then he's like, please help me. So I get to be behind. I'm like, would you think about it this way? Operations, head count, how should we do funding, product design. And so I have various roles like that where they please help. And so I do, and I go in and I get to. A couple of companies are spending the most time on right now uh i'm spending a lot of time with orionis biosciences um they are doing ai drug discovery and we have drugs in uh fda phase two clinical where they're actually working um and helping with the with that so i'm spending a lot of time i'm not a shadow ceo there but i'm i'm on the board and happening out i'm um i'm at menlo micro okay menlo micro um is a um a mem switch so we have transistors and we have relays mem switch sits in the middle and it's an incredible new technology that we've been working on for 10 years they've been working on for almost 40 years to power a identity data centers and robots and all these other things um it's a absolutely phenomenal thing and helping with the business development the product plans the the strategy the financing that kind of stuff yeah um let's see what else am i working with uh i'm doing i was just doing some vr work this morning oh really yeah are you a believer in vr i believe in i believe i fucked the metaverse i believe in vr for episodic b2b and some gaming um um But episodic, so you're not living in it like, you know, some people are saying you're going to live in it.
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37:59It's like, no. But where it's collaborative, it's high value and mostly B2B. Sure, there's gaming and that's a fringe. You know, it's big, but it's still a fringe from my perspective. But where you're doing design online. So we're in a company called Gravity Sketch. Okay. And Gravity Sketch is the number one. Think of it as Figma in the VR world where you're doing collaborative design in a 3D space and you can do markups, you can create in it. And we're at all the biggest companies. We're at Stellantis, Nike, Ford. Everybody uses us to do car design, shoe design, furniture design. So I believe in it for that.
38:37So they have teams of people wearing headsets, doing this for an hour or something, getting in it, coming out, you know, or reviewing cars or whatever. And I believe in VR for that, for sure. But for most of the stuff that was pitched by, you know, Meta and Apple, I don't believe in it at all because I've been working on VR since 1988. And I've seen the issues with it. This is circling back to some of the big themes, excuse me, some of the big themes of this conversation. Like what company do you think is best positioned to produce like a new iPad scale device? Like someone – like what – if you had to make a prediction about a company producing advice that reaches our culture at that scale, who are you betting on?
39:21Hopefully, Apple makes the iPad phone or the iPhone pad, which is basically a foldable iPhone. Oh, okay, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Bring the benefits of the iPad to the iPhone. Yeah, just bring the foldable stuff. And, you know, it's been bandied about and stuff like that. But, you know, the operating system, iPadOS and stuff. Is that a medically new device? So I think it's a meaningful segment for Apple to continue to grow and to make sure that they don't lose market share to people with foldables. But I do think there's a lot of use cases where if you can carry with you everywhere and you can open it, especially in some cases with AI, that it could be pretty powerful.
40:00Right. Right. because an iPad, you just can't slip in your pocket. You want a pocketable, you know, kind of iPad experience where you can use voice so you don't need a keyboard, all that stuff to interact with it. It could be pretty, pretty damn cool. Is that what you would focus on if you were an Apple CEO? I have many things that I would do if I was an Apple CEO. All right, give us some of them. Well, I would give you some of them? Yeah. Yeah. Well, the first thing I think they really flubbed on was mobility. You know, there was the Apple car and we all know that that was a real thing and they killed it, but there's other ways of doing it.
40:37You think they should have kept going? No, no, no, no. Apple is a company that redefines certain aspects of life. It redefined what it was to be desktop publishing, right? Or publishing in general. It redefined music. It redefined various things so they should redefine mobility don't make a four-wheel car that competes with everybody else and the chinese how would you change mobility in two in three and lightweight four-wheel vehicles how do you do that yeah that the kids are like at 14 can use and go i want to keep using it right don't not a a lucid blah blah blah for just you know you got to think you know when Steve Jobs and I would walk around the Apple campus back in 2008, 2009, we talked about the Apple car.
41:28What would it be? And he was really like, we need to do, he thought it was revolutionary was the Volkswagen, right? The people's wagon, the people's car. And he was like, what's the people's car? What's the next generation people's car? What's going to be used in the cities? And now you're seeing the Fiat Topolino, you see the Twizy, you see all these different things. I live in Europe, right? So you see all this stuff running around and they're selling out like crazy. And you're like, that Apple or two wheels Apple or three wheels Apple. And so you would say, go keep working on that vehicle, work on this vehicle vision.
42:03Oh, I think that's only one thing. I think that's one. I think mobility is something that should be addressed and Apple could address it in a very different way than it and has all kinds of brands. So that's the technology, all that stuff. This other thing is, I think it's a red herring and it's just it's more or less a me too kind of thing frankly i think that the their accessories lineup could go much much you could lean in much more into that um lots of things to be done around that obviously glasses like more designer or the aesthetic piece of it or no no just usability no no aesthetics no no no no we're talking about new markets new things that they could go after aura directly ah sure you know like duh um are you bullish on aura right now i got one on you know to truth be told no no to be truth be told i was invested in the company before aura it was called motive okay we made the first smart ring we had all of the patents all the fundamentals and everything and the team who was from apple just wanted to do something other than a ring after they got the ring i'm like guys focus on the business and they're like no we want to make you know some other wearable i'm like no focus on the business right so they lost it and then And what happened?
43:15Aura ended up buying all of our patents. I didn't know that. So to me, we were doing it four years before Aura did. And now my team from Nest is the marketing team at Aura, which I love those guys and they're doing great. I just wish we would have, Motive would have been it instead of Aura. Is Apple supposed to be thinking about a ring right now? If they're not, they'd be crazy if they weren't. And it's so easy for them to do. They have all the chip. Aura doesn't have chip guys. They don't have all that. that they have everything they need to make an incredible ring. Like, duh. And they have all the composites for, you know, the materials, everything.
43:50Like, it is a no-brainer. It's just like the pin. No-brainers to do. They have everything they need to. They just need to have the gumption to get it out and do it. It's really simple. What are other accessories? I think there's smarter ways of, you know, making a AirPod that has an iPod in it. so i think they need to bring back the ipod okay i like this because people don't want to have their phone with them all the time well there's two reasons one is there's the nostalgic value of everybody who got into apple a lot of them got in because of the ipod right right so people want don't want that just they would like the nostalgic version my first apple device yeah most people is because at the time of the ipod one percent market share in the u.s only not around the world so most people and there was no apple retail so most people's device because they didn't have a mac and they didn't buy a mac right because they had a pc so they had to get an apple device and was most likely an ipod so ipod from a nostalgic point of view for all those people who's like oh i remember the ipod but they don't want distractions anymore right they want they don't want distraction anyway the third thing sorry sorry apple who doesn't want distraction well a lot of people want that pure misery so so the music lovers who love the ipod i just bought a record player so i'm deep in this right did you see what sony did this week no sony killed their tvs and sold it off to tcl and right they went back to the turntables they just released two new turntables they kill the tvs and they bring back turntables you tell me right so is there a nostalgia element for the ipod i think so i'm sorry is the ipod in this vision software or it's a hardware device you're saying where does it exist what format it's i don't want to give away all my stuff but you're saving the has anybody talked to you about it you know there was obviously reporting about you know the next ceo and your name was you know bandied about has anyone done any feelers or you're like i gotta hold back i've gotten a lot of incoming i i let me i want to just say thank you to those those ex apple employees and those current apple employees who have reached out and have tried to canvas me and try to get me involved you know apple will make the right decision when they need to about who the next ceo right i love the company it's been in my blood since 1980 81 when i my first apple 2 you know it's it's been the thing since since i was 11 10 11 um if anyone calls you know from the board or for tim calls right i'll be happy to pick up the phone right and that's it i'll help them anyway they think they would like to be helped right um so the accessory stretch that's a great i'm fascinated by that uh there's other things they should do there's a whole nother product category there so but what is that okay we'll leave that for later what i mean the the found the the the labs the foundation model companies what's your what's your read on open ai anthropic xai really you want to go there yeah yeah of course okay big technology question of the day are they great businesses i guess that's the first question Are they good businesses?
46:55They have to really target applications to be great businesses. Platforms are not businesses. Applications are great businesses. And that was proven. The last great platform business was Windows 95 or Windows. There's been no platform business other than that. So you could call maybe AWS or Google or whatever. But that's a B2B thing. It's really about applications, not platforms. So when you look, you stack up OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Mistral. You can pick whoever it is. And then let's talk about the Chinese and even the Koreans and stuff like that.
47:38Look, there is a point, and Dario is doing a great job at Anthropic, turning it into a real business. Right. And coding, because it's so language focused, is an incredible application for an LLM. Right. And we're seeing that. Right. It's just crazy with now they're, you know, they're non-coding version of it, of Claude, as well as the coding version. I'm using it now. I'm playing. I'm like, oh, my God. I'm getting back into coding. I haven't done coding in years. I'm not a coder, but I got the desktop version. It's a little I feel like I don't have files, so I'm a little confused as a user. that i have stuff on google that i want them to use which i think i need to use in their web browser stuff i mean these are i must say look i must say that they have a whole set of application stuff and training because it still feels like it's a github model for claude right like it's very giddy right and that's and if you look at if you look at that it's a very small number of people they have to come from a different way to get people involved and it's still not approachable like i'm like still like confused when i'm using it or when i'm even installing it and trying to run it right what okay terminal this like how many people do that there's other ways of getting around that and they're gonna i'm sure they'll get there there's just no way they're not um but again they're doing a great job of really focusing and figuring out that stuff around coding around that um guardrails all those things and they're trying to get to profitability so that they're a real standing business right so i commend them for all that they're doing they're you know they're ex open ai people right and everything and they really are targeting so that's really great then we go to open ai open ai right now is spray and pray right spray and pray look this week it was rumored and i'm sure it was a very strong rumor they're trying to reach 50 billion dollars right 50 billion just a few months ago was 5 billion and just before that it was 500 million i don't think unless you've been in the market and understand this is massive amounts of capital that even large fortune 500s can't get access to right and so what i the game i believe sam is playing and it's a really dangerous game is too big to fail right he's getting every single person to give that money right including large governments and everything else right so they're too big to fail right well this was the whole sarah fryer backstop Yeah, yeah, that backstop, which is like, no, no, and they're backpedaling.
50:14But they've written stuff that's suggested as much. You don't think they're not having those discussions at OpenAI? Like, yeah, these governments will backstop us at some point because we're going to crash everything. The semiconductors, everything. So I think it's an incredibly dangerous game they're playing, especially with the circular deals and everything. Is there a there there? I believe there's a there there, but Google's going to win it. Right. Google has everything from the chips to the data centers to the all the way to the applications and tons of data, you know, for all this stuff.
50:47I wish they had a better devices team. It sucks there. I'll go on, you know, whatever. But at the end of the day, they have all the things necessary, plus an ad business that can fund billions of dollars a quarter. And distribution, you know. It's just it's everywhere. It's like it's massive. I feel like there's so many AI haters that, you know, they obviously Google things. And so then they'll get the AI results from Google. And so I feel like there's, or, you know, Gemini is fundamentally delivering the results. So there's this weird world where people hate AI and still use it all the time via Google, which is just, I don't know.
51:24I hear what you're saying. You know, there's this, it's more like, I hate what it's going to do to the world. I mean, I hate, but it works for me. You know, so I think there's a little dissonance there. But, you know, I have to credit Sundar. Right. And the team that they've had an existential crisis. And I think they cleaned up the culture enough. I'm sure it's not fully clean, but enough to say, we have an existential crisis. We're going to get to work. We got to go back to the founder mode. It was too casual. It was too casual. You remember the first things of Gemini that came out. We can't blah, blah, blah.
52:00Too safety. In the MAGA words, woke. Too safe and too... Right, right, right. Right. Big balance. Well, you could, but you couldn't. You're like, come on. So I. Do you have a read on whether how much Sergei really gets credit or what the internal dynamics are there in terms of who's really driving? Oh, I hear a little bit. I don't really want to comment. It's it's it's it's look at the results. The results are sure. They fumbled a few times, but they're they're locked in and engaged in there. And so I have to give them every credit for turning the ship. Right. I, you know, it was a big, it's a huge ship at Google, but it feels like it's really going in the direction.
52:42And sometimes it does take a near-death experience to get the best out of people. Right. Right. I say that's the only way you change cultures. Right. Is through a near-death experience. Do you think they'll innovate? Or you think, I mean, they, you know, they wrote the attention. Demis is amazing. Demis is incredibly smart. And he was like, they were the ones who came up with this first. Right, I know, of course. So now it's just it's playing a game of ketchup. Right. But it's a it's it's really David and Goliath. Open AI might have a lot of cash. Right. But they don't have anywhere near the resources.
53:14And now today, like here's here's the thing that's really interesting. And people don't a lot of people don't realize this is that if you look at where Open AI is trying to make its money. And where Google is making its money today. you say oh and anthropics making anthropics very applications right or api you're saying the api business and coding yeah well api encoding that kind of thing then there's um and and they're doing that and they're they're they're going to get there open ai is doing everything like you know they're they're picking out oh okay we're gonna worry about uh you know when they just announced health and then they announced this they're doing whatever it takes to get more application specific and now they're announcing ads right they're doing like again spray and pray to hope to go because people they can get only so many people to pay a hunt twenty dollars or two hundred dollars or whatever it is and so they have to get to this ad model to get more revenue to come in the chinese are doing this so smart right well maybe because they don't have the nvidia chips but i always like resource constrained environments because you're more creative.
54:27So if you look at DeepSeek, if you look at these other things and they're open source, the profits of open AI today, or not profits, I should say just revenues of open AI today, if those open source models or a meta model becomes reality and they're close enough, and I know a lot of developers using the Chinese models or other open source models. Right. And if OpenAI doesn't get there at the application side, everything in the middle is gone. They don't have data centers. They don't have anything else. They depend on a persistent technological advantage in such a competitive category. What I believe you're going to see is application and infrastructure.
55:09That's where it's going to sit. And in the middle, it's going to be like everyone's got open this and open that. And there's going to be no real money in it. And that's why people are saying there's no money in SaaS anymore. So you're going to see, oddly enough, infrastructure and scale and application is where the capturing the customer or capturing the platform is going to be. And that's where we're, I believe, where we're headed. And OpenAI is stuck here because they don't have any data centers. They've been very clear they don't want it. But they're not here. And you already have Google up here at the apps.
55:40You have Claude or Iathropik there and maybe one day Apple up there. So it's pretty. Don't you think like general purpose assistant is an application? I mean, to defend OpenAI, they have all this context on me. You know, the longer I use it. Google has much more. Apple has much more. And I'm drifting. They have much more. And that's why they want a device. That's why they need all these things to sort of have this full picture. They need the context. You know, people are saying they should make a phone. But then they have, then it's an Android phone because they don't have enough. Well, maybe they can find more money.
56:14But they're bleeding money. The other thing that people don't realize is as they add more capacity, as they bring on more data centers, each of those users is more negative money that they have to spend to keep those users. So as they scale up and they don't have a revenue amount, they're losing more money per user because they're getting more users. It's the old ride sharing days. We'll make it up in volume. Unit economics are negative, but we'll make it up in volume. It's like, no, you won't. I mean, do you think OpenAI goes bankrupt? Look, if they're asking for$50 billion now, like how fast are you going to burn through that?
56:52Right. We haven't talked about XAI. Do you have a view on that? Look, Elon plays a very, very different game. Yeah. You know, he started with Tesla. Then it was Twitter that turned into X. And now Twitter or X is part of Tesla. And then he was doing data center stuff. and now that's going to be part of Tesla. Now he wants to make, and what I heard latest is, is SpaceX is not going to go public. SpaceX is going to get bought by Tesla. Yeah, I think I made a prediction maybe on this podcast. Yeah, I think, I mean, clearly some... He's just rolling up and just becoming a conglomerate. But are you saying, oh, it's sort of house of cards always the next thing?
57:35Yeah. Oh, no, I'm not saying it's house of cards. SpaceX is an incredible business. Okay. Incredible business. Tesla would be much better off if Elon didn't do what Elon did a year ago. Right. Right. So that was... Which is like lose focus and go do devil's. Well, no, be in politics and then piss off the world. And everyone said, I'm not buying that product because it tainted the brand. Right. So the thing is, it's like, okay, I need money to keep Tesla alive. Right. Okay, I'm going to put SpaceX in, raise a bunch of money off SpaceX. Right. And make, because the Tesla stock is going to come up.
58:07And so I'll be able to continue to float Tesla. You know what I mean? With money. Right. So that's how that works. He ultimately needs to protect his investors because this whole thing only works if he's like, well, he's going to look out for me somehow. You know, he'll acquire SolarCity some way. He'll do some deal that the next thing works out and like whatever good idea he has will save the rest. But like XAI, you don't see as sort of a big part of that power. XAI, look, he's doing what he does with XAI. It can be something. You know, again, oh, now we're doing, you know, you know, what is it?
58:47De-robing people on like and then it's like, I didn't know. And it's like now we have three million images of legal images running around. So, you know, there's this kind of skirting back and forth like we just play within the gray area of the law. And then we pull back just like self-driving is going to be up and running 10 years ago. And he makes everyone pay. But yet no one gets delivered what they were. Right. Right. So he gets somehow gets away with everything. I'm playing just the line. As a leader, you know, we sort of touched on how woke potentially killed Google. Now we're in this sort of like nihilist period.
59:23Where do you think tech should aspire to be in terms of having some meaning underpinning what they're building right now? Well, look, I'm an optimist. And I'm also a guy who, you know, maybe I couldn't play in this game because I'm much more of the high moral standards, high ethics, high, you know, when I say you're going to be my partner, you're my partner. And we work together on stuff, not open AI. And I'm going to partner with everyone and we're exclusive, but we're not. You know, that's, you know, that's kind of today's social media dating scheme, you know. Right. So I think that, you know, I don't know if I, I always ask myself all the time.
1:00:01I'm like, how would Steve Jobs fare in this environment if he was here? Well, would he go to the White House? I don't have an answer. Do you think he would be in the White House? You know, you sort of have to. I have no idea. I think Gavin Newsom said something fairly charitable about Tim Cook, which is sort of, you know, he has to play the game. But it's hard to know if Steve Jobs would have. You know, knowing what I know and working alongside him for a decade, I don't think he would have played, but I don't know. I played along, but I don't know. But so, no, really, I think that, you know, I think Dario is doing a great job.
1:00:43He got in front of Davos saying, you know, this is BS. This is not right. This is not right. Demis got up and saying LLMs aren't the thing, you know, and there's more to come. So I think we need more leaders like that because we have too many, you know, people with questionable value systems running these things. And, you know, I wish they were there or they were more vocal. Because Tim's a great guy. Tim's got high values, you know. I mean, I agree with you. I mean, Dario, they just, Anthropoc just released a constitution for - Yeah, I saw that, yeah. Plod where it's like, they're being extremely thoughtful.
1:01:19And I tweeted something, it's like in a moment of anti-intellectualism, here they are, it's like, let's have some philosophy, PhDs, academics, you know, think through, you know, within a real principled way. Like, I really admire what they're doing. I think when a lot of investors and a lot of people get burned by this thing that we're in right now, there's going to be like a lot of navel gazing going, oh, you know, what did we do right? What did we do wrong? You're always going to have that Wall Street, Wolf of Wall Street mentality. And everybody's playing. But I remember that in 98, 99, too, when it all fell out.
1:01:49And then great companies like Google really came into play. Right. Right. So we'll see what happens. I don't know. This has been a great conversation. Last one, last question. We've touched on a lot of devices. I mean, if you were, you know, I don't know, this smart engineer kid out of college, like, oh, I want to make my name in devices. Like, where would you point him or her? Like, what is the sort of device area that said, okay, make a bet on this for the next two decades? Understand the application really, really well. And understand if you even need hardware. Okay. See, we have more than enough hardware in all kinds of different things.
1:02:25it's going to be a federation of things with a really smart software thing yeah so don't think of just mechanical and devices you got to think system and you got to think federated of devices to really get to the next level of what it's going to happen all this other stuff it's all kind of features not a product what i know that i said that was the last question i have to like i love my iphone i use it all the time but don't you get we get sick of looking at it or it's like you're looking at the phone too much do you think in in two decades like we're still going to be using like a yeah we'll just put these in our ears and then and when we put the phone in our pocket it'll know the context and it'll just start talking to us and then more listening less screen time yeah you know are there going to be different forms these are these are open ear over the ear in ear the noise cancellation is great okay great you're going to have the glasses so we have enough of the forms right they need to be pulled together with smarter software and better things to get them to do what they need.
1:03:23You know, I'm not saying what headphones do you use? These are nothings. Oh, okay. These are nothing. I got the over the ear, the over the headphone ones. Yeah. And also the, the opens. I love them. I absolutely love them. Tony Fidel. This has been awesome. Thanks so much for doing this with me. Yeah. Great. Thanks. Thanks a lot, Eric. Thank you for tuning into this week's episode of the podcast. If you're new here, please like and subscribe. It really helps out the channel. Listen in for new episodes every week, wherever you get your podcasts.
From the publisher
Today on the Newcomer Podcast, we’re joined by Tony Fadell, one of the most influential figures in modern hardware design. Fadell helped bring some of the most important consumer electronics to life and has shaped how people interact with technology.We talk about where the next major tech device might come from, whether it’s a pin, a pen, headphones, or the device already in your pocket, and how Apple and other major tech companies are approaching the future of hardware.We also discuss the rumors surrounding Fadell as a potential contender for the next CEO of Apple, what he would do if he were in that role, and how leadership decisions at that level actually get made. Fadell shares his view on why OpenAI is pursuing a strategy of becoming too big to fail, and what that signals about the next phase of the industry.This conversation goes beyond product launches and press releases, focusing instead on how power, scale, and design choices shape the tech ecosystem.This is the Newcomer Podcast.🎙️ New episodes every week! Subscribe and turn on notifications to stay ahead of the next big story.👇 Watch more from The Newcomer Podcast:https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL0Yg1id5olJMOyUnYF5AZnIo2ZXdyYd-L 🔗 Read more at newcomer.co🐦 Follow us: @NewcomerMediaIf you want honest, insider analysis from the heart of tech and venture capital…you’re in the right place.




