Lots More With Sam Ro on the Booming World of RIAs

0:00You're being sold an AI future where you're obsolete or irrelevant. That vision is wrong. At Palantir, they're building AI that helps workers and unlocks their full potential. American workers are our nation's greatest strength. AI shouldn't eliminate them. It should elevate them. Palantir is here to tell their stories. From factories to hospitals, AI is freeing people from drudgery, letting them do what humans do best. Create. Solve. Build. Palantir, making Americans irreplaceable.

1:01Pros.com today. That's expresspros.com. Being a small business owner isn't just a career, it's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. Manage all your business finances, from banking to payments to credit cards, all in one place with their digital tools. Plus, access online resources designed to help your business thrive. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC.

1:37Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase and Company.

1:45Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. All right, Sam and Tracy, here's the deal. Okay, we're recording this on Tuesday. This episode is going to come out Friday. So we're recording this before the big Fed decision. So how about we plan for this? I'm going to ask you guys what your Fed forecast is. And then I'm going to ask you again, and we can record two versions of it. And then in the actual episode, we'll use whichever one was correct. Does that sound like a good plan? I'm just going to hedge my bets and say, I think they're going to cut by 37.5 basis points. I mean, a hawkish 25 or a dovish 50.

2:28Yeah. You know, I think, you know, either after the announcement, I think either the high end or the low end of the Fed funds target is going to be 5%.

2:40I did a deadlift. One, two, three. Hegemony. Hegemony. Okay, go. What to? Hegemony. Barges. This is an after school special, except. I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the U.S. Where's the best squid ink pasta? These are the important questions. Is it robots taking over the world? No, I think that like in a couple of years, the AI will do a really good job of making the Odd Lots podcast. And people will say, I don't really need to listen to Joe and Tracy anymore. We do have... Cha-ching. The perfect guest. Welcome to Lots More, where we catch up with friends about what's going on right now.

3:20Because even when Odd Lots is over, there's always lots more. And we really do have the perfect guest.

3:29Honestly, though, I think we're kind of splitting hairs. But don't you think we're kind of splitting hairs 25, 50 basis points? Well, I think go back and forth on this question. I don't know. I think the interesting thing is like, well, we're journalists or media people. So we all kind of think... We're journalists. Yeah, okay. Okay. We're journalists and we all sort of think about things in terms of size and scope. So the interesting size and scope for this meeting is everyone expects them to cut, but there's never been this much uncertainty about 25 bps versus 50 bps. Like the market, the last time I checked, was pretty evenly split between the two of those.

4:04Right. But yeah, no, in terms of backdrop, I think that's actually an important thing, right? Like, sure it's never been more split in terms of what the consensus is but well why don't we also consider the fact that you know we're not on the cusp of an economic crisis yeah we're not at the you know in the throes of the inflation crisis so i feel like you know monetary policy developments and rate cut announcements and the press conference probably has uh more risk of market volatility when where we have a market crisis as opposed to now where the stock market's at an all-time high, unemployment rate is relatively low, inflation is pretty calm.

4:43So I don't know. I think we're splitting hairs. All right. No more conversation that's going to be completely irrelevant by the time everyone listening to this. We are speaking, of course, with Sam Rowe, who writes the fantastic Ticker newsletter, one of the substacks that I actually open. And that's real. Thank you. That's real. I actually opened it. I feel like Tracy, like newsletters, they're the new economist subscription where like, you know, you subscribe to the economist and then like eight pile up and then, you know, like people use. Oh, I thought you were going to say in terms of prestige, like the way people always buy the economist when they're at an airport so they can just like be in the lounge with an economist.

5:20But also it is kind of like that, but it's like you subscribe to the economist I used to, but like I didn't really read them, you know, or like I'd like. So I was actually on a content creator panel earlier this week for the Future Proof Conference. And that question actually came up. How do you guys think about cadence and publishing schedule and all this kind of stuff? Everyone on the panel kind of had a different approach to this. Some people say you got to do a daily thing. Keep the volume high because you never know what's going to hit and one of those things are going to hit. Or remind people that you're there.

5:52I hear that a lot. You have to remind people and be top of mind all the time. Exactly. Give people value for their money or whatever. I don't know. I kind of taken a contrarian approach to that. Sometimes I joke that the less I send, the more valuable my product is or whatever my output is. I try to think of, you know, the reader's time as much as possible, like kind of like, you know, the magazine stacking up, right? There's a reason why that magazine stacks up is because you probably have other more important things to do. So I try to, you know, be really careful about, you know, sending stuff out that I think when people open it and read it, that they're glad that they did it.

6:30And so the next time they open it, then they'll be happy to read it. And if I'm not sending something out, it probably sends a signal that I don't have anything to say that day. Yeah. I always think that you should do what you're best at, right? There are some people who are actually very, well, Joe's one of them, who are very good at putting out thoughts on a daily basis. I open that newsletter every morning too. Thank you. I scroll. There are other people, probably me actually, who are better at kind of like selecting topics and then going deep into them. Yeah. And you are very good. Oh, thank you.

7:04Thank you. There was a pause. No, that wasn't just like that sort of like de facto reciprocation that's very real. Thank you. So we're out here at the Future Proof Festival about the things on stage. But actually, what have you been writing about lately, Sam? You know, you write every once in a while because you're so mindful of everyone's time, Unlike me, who's always trying to be top of mind with everyone. You know, you store up. What have you been talking about? Well, I mean, market volatility has been kind of fun. Yeah. Kicking August off with that huge sell-off and then having the rebound and then kicking September off with that huge sell-off.

7:38Wait, actually, here's another media question. Yeah. We're correlated to the VIX. It's always good for a boost in subscribers or listeners or Twitter followers or whatever. Do you find the same? Yeah. Oh, absolutely. Like, you know, a bull market with low volatility is terrible for business. Because no one has any questions when the market's going up. They just open their 401k plan and they see the numbers going up and they're not concerned about it. They go on with the rest of their lives. They'll go shopping. They go to Disney World. They watch Netflix. It's only when the numbers start going down, they're wondering, should I actually be more concerned about this?

8:13How do I think about this? Why haven't I made a plan about this? And hopefully, I sent something out that helps explain that. But yeah, no, I've mostly been writing about it. And a lot of it is just repetition of the same old stats in that market volatility is a thing. When volatility is low and the stock market is near record high, those are the times where you have to start reminding yourself that on average, you see a 14 % max drawdown in a given year. So when you do see that big 5%, 10 % drop in a week or two, if you have that mindset knowing that I was prepared for a 14 % sell-off. And this is completely normal.

8:53And you just make the best out of that situation as opposed to panic and try to make a plan in the throes of that mess. But August was so weird. We've spoken about this a number of times now, but it was so sharp, the drawdown, and so freaking short-lived, right? Like three days, basically, where it was the end of the world. Yeah. And the Fed's going to cut by 100 basis points and the central bank needs to be out there talking to people about what's going on. And then, you know, it's September and I can barely remember what happened. Yeah, it was strange. It was strange. And I still think people don't know what happened.

9:30Yeah. I was about to ask, what's your take on what caused the sell off? Because this is the other thing that I think was interesting. There was such a huge narrative around the carry trade unwind. And then it was like, well, we all kind of forgot about it a week later. Right. I mean, you have to learn all that stuff in real time. I mean, I think that's why it's such great work to be in media and journalism and research and all that kind of stuff. When stuff like that happens and people start screaming about carry trade unwinds and movements and other markets that you should be worried about that might be somehow related to why the US markets are down.

10:06When you hear stuff like that, that, to me, kind of echoes of financial crisis, because there was so much stuff going on in the crisis that was completely inscrutable. You hear a little bit about, oh, home price started down and this and that, but it wasn't until they start talking about mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities and CDOs and all this alphabet soup that you've never heard of that you start to panic. And then afterwards, you realize that was a big deal. So when you do hear about these new exotic trades that might be unwinding, you rush to do homework. Joe, I just realized we can give the people what they want and just make this a conversation about financial media during 2008.

10:46Oh, we could do that all over again. I love that idea.

11:02Silicon Valley is selling you a future where you're obsolete, or worse, identical. At Palantir, they're witnessing something different and revolutionary. From re-industrializing the nation's defense base to shipyard workers building faster and frontline workers boosting productivity, AI is transforming work across the nation. AI is not replacing American workers or flattening them into conformity. It's unleashing what makes each one irreplaceable, their judgment, their craft, their creativity. When American workers become more powerfully themselves, they own the future. Palantir, making Americans irreplaceable.

12:09leading 3.6 % APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by public investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokered services for U.S. listed registered securities, options, and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., Member FINRA and SIPC. Crypto trading provided by XeroHash. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

12:42When you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards. Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this painful card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that can take your business to the next level. Sapphire Reserve for Business provides over$2 ,500 in annual value. Fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits, and more.

13:21Make every journey more rewarding with a$300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges. Whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. With over$2 ,500 in annual value, it's the car that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC. You know, we're here at the Future Proof Festival. and for people who don't know what it is, is sort of like associated with the whole Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown crew.

14:04Most of the people in attendance are registered investment advisors. And that's actually a world that we really have not ever covered on much, but it's absolutely gigantic and crucial and growing. And so these are people or small companies, typically a few people maybe, and they manage people's money. You're pretty plugged in. I feel like you're really plugged into that world. I feel like you're, you're like, you're probably like a very must read among many of the people here. You're a celebrity here. Like, tell us about RIA world as you see it. I mean, I don't know. I couldn't speak too much about the business, but the culture, you know, actually very much reminds me of the whole independent, you know, newsletter, writer, media kind of thing where, you know, there are so many services and things that you can outsource now.

14:53And the regulation is very friendly. Because a lot of these people here used to work at bigger firms. They come from places like UBS and Morgan Stanley and decided that they were sort of beholden to an organization or a culture. A way of doing business. A way of doing business that they thought they could do it differently or do it better. And this whole boom in RIAs basically said, hey, I can probably take a risk. I see all these other people doing it. I'm going to give it a shot. And then conferences like this happen where you can just walk around and people will give you all the answers to all your questions.

15:29And so a lot of the attendees are RIAs here. And then there are all these booths and they're all the companies selling services to RIAs. So it's like, we'll handle your tax things and we'll handle your backend infrastructure or we'll handle your social media marketing or all of these services, including we'll handle your portfolio construction. So really, the only thing that they need to do on their own is to read Sam's newsletter and then tell their clients about how stocks always go up. I've been saying that all week. Just sound smart in front of clients, right? But that's like a big thing, right?

16:01Yeah. No, no. I mean, that really is it. Even what I do is, there's not a whole lot of original stuff coming from me. I do a lot of curate. Well, a lot of my work is curation and just sort of amplifying the work of other people. And those are the kinds of conversations I do have with you know, a lot of these professionals here is, you know, you help me save time, you know, doing the research and finding interesting stuff. Because instead of me having to, you know, read, you know, 15 pages of the Wall Street Journal every morning, you know, I'll read your Sunday newsletter and come out with like six different stats that I could talk about with clients next week.

16:36You know, as much as I'm here to, you know, enrich readers or help people become better investors, there's nothing stopping anybody from just ripping stuff off from my newsletter and then sending it out to their clients. That's kind of what media is there for. I feel like it's there to provide the talking points. And so Bloomberg famously has something called the market wrap, which sits on our top menu all the time. And it basically summarizes what's going on in the market. And I remember there used to be a discussion about like, well, why do you need something that's just telling you if the S &P 500 went up or down that day?

17:11And the answer is because there are a lot of people out there who need to like talk to their clients and basically summarize what's been going on in the market. And if they can do it by just reading this one thing, it's actually really useful. Right, right. And, you know, there's a lot of ways to define a lot of people, right? Like if you're doing this at an organization where you actually have to have really big numbers to justify this kind of service, then, you know, you time it and you have to actually define what a lot of people is. But for me, a lot of people might be 20 ,000 people or 50 ,000 people.

17:43And those smaller audiences might be on a different kind of schedule or might be on a different kind of cadence. When I've done research into the newsletter business, the financial newsletter business, I do know that the biggest audiences exist in the mornings, Monday through Friday, daily before the markets open. I don't have the capacity to write every morning, but I do know I'm missing out on an audience that way. But I'll send something out every Sunday. And there's an audience that exists for that. It's not as big as the weekday audience, but they do exist. And it turns out they are actually being underserved by some of these other places that go for the high volume play.

18:18Joe, speaking of a lot of people, that's like one of two things that I've learned about RIAs while I'm here is that like, there's a lot of them. And like the number of RIAs that are at this particular event seems to basically be doubling every year, which, you know, a lot of that credit to Barry and Josh and what they've built here. and then the second thing i learned is that they all wear polo shirts yeah yeah yeah dry fit polo and yeah uh leisure work wear yeah and um hoka hoka sneakers or those nikes that are really comfortable and stuff like that right i know i have a pair of those nikes i call them my old man early bird buffet shoes because i run because they're running shoes but i don't run but they are really comfortable to stand in so like if i'm standing in line at a buffet at six in the morning I'm going to be in running shoes.

19:11Actually, I just noticed, Joe, you're wearing like foot tops with socks. I know. I don't know why. I like having my feet warm, but I also like being able to slip in and out of slides. It's very Gen Z of you. So I've been told that's very hip. You know, the other thing, too, that I think this crowd is really into and it makes sense from the perch of the investment advisors, they love behavioral stuff. They love stories about how irrational people are. There seems to be a limitless appetite for various studies that show that the human brain responds more to fear and that we sell at the exact wrong times and just all the ways we're irrational.

19:50But it makes sense because that's like the main thing they have to do to tell their clients to like, just remind them not to sell at the bottom. Right. Right. Yeah. And, you know, to your point, it makes sense. You know, it's funny. There's so much about finance that's theoretical, that's very quantitative, that's based off of models with different number, quantitative inputs you put, and something comes out the other end, and that thing never happens because people are irrational. But when you hear about that, you realize that the markets are much more intuitive than you think. I'm one of many people who are trying to trade the stock market, but I'm also going to panic and freak out when the markets sell off.

20:28That's just sort of my nature. And now someone's explaining to me that, actually, there's a whole field of study based off of this. And every week someone is coming out with a new paper, you know, telling you about behavioral finance and this is how markets work. That's something that I always thought was really interesting when I first read the Intelligent Investor, which is honestly, it's kind of a dense read and it's kind of boring, but there's a lot of it in there that, you know, talks about, you know, behavioral biases and how... So they've known about this forever. Forever, forever. This is not groundbreaking stuff.

20:59Like I think it's more popular now with the work of Thaler and Shiller and all these people who are doing a really nice job of telling that story. But behavioral finance has been around forever. You know what I don't get about this particular event? Joe, you described how there are all the booths there and they're providing services for RIAs. But what do the RIAs talk about when they talk to each other? Yeah, and they're all standing around holding their beers and tacos and stuff like that. They're all competing for the same clients. By the way, an RIA pitched himself to me and some of my fellow Bloomberg journalists.

21:36And it was actually, it was a bit patronizing because he came up to us and he was like, oh, I'm an RIA. And we were like, well, what do you do exactly? And we meant that as like, who do you work for? What exactly do you do? And he was like, well, I manage money. One day when all of you are rich and famous, you need to find someone like me to manage your money for you. And we were all kind of like, okay, we understand that part. You don't need to pitch to us. But I assume they're all competing against each other for client money. Yeah. I mean, you know, what do journalists talk about when they get together?

22:11Like, you know, there's a big CNBC presence out here. You know, what do the CNBC people say to the Bloomberg people? Like, there's obviously stories that I'm sure that they can exchange notes on. And, you know, as much as you're competing with people, you're also exchanging notes, right? Especially in this independent game, they're probably all talking about how terrible the last company that they worked with were. You know what you're also getting? A tax-deductible vacation to Orange County, California. That's something my accountant has been telling me. Well, you run your own business now. That's right.

22:45I'm sure tax is actually something you have to pay attention to. Yeah. I'm the CFO. I approve the expenses. I'm HR and I do all the infotech but yeah, it's a big part of it and I think something that's been kind of a positive experience about going independent is understanding and appreciating all that kind of stuff but yeah, the tax code is designed to encourage businesses to go out and do business stuff

23:23Support for the show comes from Public.com. You're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic option plays on the side. The point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can put together a multi-asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto, it's all there. plus an industry-leading 3.6 % APY high-yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously.