The NYC Landlords Most Worried About Zohran Mamdani

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1:57Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, I don't want the podcast to be like an entirely New York City focused podcast. But like in our defense, not only do we live here, but you know what happens in New York City, it has problems and it has challenges that are seen really all around the world. So it's not terrible to do a few episodes related to, you know, what's happening around in our neighborhood. I don't think it's terrible at all. And in fact, one specific area where New York really does have national, maybe even global relevance is in the housing arena.

2:36Right. So we know New York City has a shortage of housing. People have been trying to come up with ways to improve that, build more supply for a long time and also lower rents. And so that that has, you know, implications for a lot of other cities and places that might also be capacity constrained. Totally. I mean, like New York is sort of at egregious levels of housing on affordability, but every city around the world, I think every city that's booming has some challenges of affordability and building more, at least in the West. But I sort of think basically everywhere. And so people always talk about trying to solve it, etc.

3:15Anyway, of course, past Odd Lots guest Zoran Mamdani has his proposals for how to address housing affordability, including a rent freeze on a significant chunk of the housing stock in the city. And so we sort of need to get a sense of like what that means and how that, you know, what the implication is for business. weather could work, you know? Well, the broader theme here, I guess, is the role of the public sector in the private market, right? Like if we want to get really, really conceptual with this, that's basically what we're talking about. Yeah. And of course, Momdani has a slew of proposals and ideas, free buses, faster buses also, has a public grocery store trial, etc.

3:59But, you know, we did that recent episode with Kathy Wild, the head of the Partnership for New York, which represents a lot of major employers in the city. I'm sure they're anxious about him for a number of reasons. But she said within their community, it's really the real estate industry that is the most freaked out, so to speak. Yeah. And I'm really interested in this because people talk about the real estate industry as the sort of monolith. But of course it isn't, right? There's residential, there's commercial, there's luxury, there's more affordable. So I want to dig into this a bit more and understand exactly what the concerns are and whether they're coming from different parts of the real estate network.

4:41Yeah. And then there's, you know, even within real estate, there's brokers and then there's developers who are separate from landlords, et cetera. Anyway, we do have the perfect guest, someone we've had on a few times every time New York City real estate is in the news, a guy we like to chat with. We are going to be speaking with Ben Carlos Taipan. He is the founder of a firm called Quantiera, which analyzes real estate. He is also a New York City landlord and broker. Interesting idea. Is that the most like hated demographic in all of New York? Yes. Thanks for coming back on the show, Ben. Thanks for having me.

5:18Kathy Wilde, when we talked to her, did say that the real estate industry is the of all of the sectors of the economy, the most anxious. What specifically, you know, who's really anxious or what about Mamdani's sort of vision most sends chills down the spine of landlords or other players in the real estate industry? Well, I mean, I think the reaction to Mamdani is actually not that different from the reaction to Bill de Blasio eight years ago when he came in, or excuse me, 12 years ago. I think it's been amplified by the political environment we're in, Mamdani's political identity, his race, his ethnicity and religion.

6:03But what scares these people, I think, the most, and when I say these people, I mean the people that are vocalizing their fear, which I think don't necessarily speak for every portion of the real estate industry, as Tracy pointed out. I think what most scares them is that Mamdani's sort of premise of city management does not revolve around them. And this was a major issue during the de Blasio administration that the press covered a lot, where de Blasio, despite appointing some real estate-friendly commissioners and generally having a pretty good administration that was pretty good for real estate, he wasn't in the habit of kissing the ring and sort of showing up to their galas and calling on them and stroking them in a way that, in contrast, Eric Adams, the current mayor, has been very good at doing.

6:56So I think a lot of this is sort of meta feelings about their place in the city, their influence in City Hall. And depending on the policy, there's varying degrees of tenuousness to actual policy and market implications. So who is most scared? Give us some nuance on the vibes. Sure. So I think the most scared groups are rent-stabilized landlords, because Mamdani has pledged to freeze rents on rent-stabilized apartments. And then large developers, the biggest developers who not only have business models that largely depend on sort of being in an informal cartel and having the best relationships with the people that make policy in the city and the most powerful people.

7:48players, but also, you know, have a greater sense of civic duty and their role in civic society. And I think Mamdani's rhetoric and some of his policies threaten their sort of sense of their own place within the city. You know, it's interesting, Tracy, I'm thinking back, you know, we did that not long after we interviewed Mamdani. We interviewed the Jersey City mayor who didn't win his primary nomination for governor. So not everyone who comes on odd lots automatically. But one of the things he said that was really interesting is that by, you know, he said he talked about depoliticizing and that, you know, essentially by making it sort of more streamlined, the process to get approvals, that there are these developers who maybe their edge was that they really knew how to play the game within these boards, within, you know, the community.

8:38Suddenly, like that is a marginal edge that disappears in a system that is much more straightforward. And Mamdani himself, if I'm not mistaken, Ben, has also talked about he does want more development. He's talked about market rate development, and he's also talked about just sort of making that process if the developer meets certain requirements, labor pay, et cetera, just much more straightforward, which, again, would seem to speak to your point that perhaps some of the most threatened entities would be those ones who are big and best positioned to sort of play the politics side of the game.

9:12Yeah, I think streamlining does not necessarily benefit the most entrenched incumbents. I think that they wouldn't necessarily fare badly under a Mamdani administration, but they, at least if one takes Mamdani's policy pronouncements at face value, would not be in the driver's seat. The Albanian guy in the Bronx who's building a small a multifamily building, he's going to be in a lot more position to benefit from these streamlined policies than the type of people that are being quoted in The New York Times. By the way, Tracy, before I forget, Ben talked about the similarities with de Blasio. It's funny because I think there was a quote we're recording this July 16th.

9:52I think I saw a quote yesterday from Kathy Wilde in the news that was basically like, Momdania is like Bill de Blasio, except we like him. He's likable, essentially. That's pretty funny. I mean, yeah, I get it. Okay, so part of this discussion, I understand why developers might be concerned about losing their competitive advantage when it comes to navigating City Hall and all of that. Are there any concerns beyond initial approval for projects? Is there a concern, for instance, about an emphasis on public housing perhaps crowding out private development? I think there's a generalized concern that the Mamdani administration and its vibes are going to depress private investment, whether that's in existing housing or building new private housing.

10:44However, even under that scenario, which I don't really agree with and think is kind of a cynical view, there would be beneficiaries of that scenario. So let's say that does happen. Rent-stabilized rents are frozen and private investment and new development and new housing plummets. They're going to upcharge the market rate. Exactly. Market rate rents would increase considerably. So under that scenario, the market rate landlords would do very well. And the rent-stabilized landlords who are already not doing well would continue to not do well. And the affordable developers who only build housing with public subsidy, which Mamdani wants to spend considerably more on subsidized housing, would also benefit.

11:26So it really speaks to the many different stakeholders within the real estate industry who have different and sometimes conflicting interests.

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13:36Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2025. JPMorgan Chase and Company. If demand for residents in New York City broadly is stable or continues to grow as it has been, in this scenario where, in theory, developers just want to pull back, The landlords who have exposure to the market rate units, you'd think they would do very well. Yeah. And in fact, I have clients who are market rate developers who are out in the market fundraising right now with this argument. They say that if you should fund this project of ours right now because we're going to be the last buildings to be developed before Mom Donnie comes in and freezes everything.

14:21And therefore, we're going to have the best product in the market and be able to charge the highest price. Right, pricing power. That's amazing. So the cost shift is already happening, basically. Yeah. But again, where people are freaking out, I'm not sure that that is necessarily grounded in reality. But I think a lot of the rhetoric, both public and private, we've seen in light of Mamdani's primary victory is PR and spin. In real estate, everyone's always trying to find an angle to say why their project is best or why their project should be funded or why I'm not making this decision and why I look smart because of that.

14:56So we're still very much in the spin zone. Let's talk more about that because I feel like one of those cliches, which probably has some truth, is that, yeah, people who freak out and let themselves get hysterical don't do as well as business as people who adapt to the new environment and sense the opportunity. So you've described one set of people who may be thinking opportunistically right now, which is the people who might have the opportunity to build something before rent freezes come into place. They're going to have the pricing power by this. What else are the opportunities that people send about?

15:34Yeah. OK, maybe we don't like the policies, but there is a money making opportunity under the Mamdani administration. Who else is sort of licking their chops, so to speak? One other group that's licking their chops is the developers that specialize in building affordable housing, which are both for-profit and non-profit developers. And they have done pretty well, or they did very well in the Nibazi administration. They've done well during the Adams administration. They consistently do well because Mamdani wants to build more government subsidized housing than any previous mayor. But it's not like the developers and the labor for building that housing is just going to materialize out of the government.

16:13You're going to be using private sector players to do this. So these groups or these players are taking a different approach than some other pure market rate developers in the real estate industry and trying to craft sort of a separate piece with the Mamdani administration to say like, hey, we want to help you meet your goals. We know you want to spend a lot of money. This is good for both of us. And I think another group, ironically, and they're not so much licking their chops because I think they're very scared, is the rent-stabilized building owners. Because as we've discussed on one of our previous podcasts, this is a distressed sector, and it's sort of been heading for a reckoning.

16:55And I think Mamdani's policies are going to lead to an acceleration of that trend so that something gives here. And I think it could give in a sort of cynical way at the Supreme Court, or it could give in a more optimistic way by sort of Mamdani being something like Nixon to China and going to Albany and crafting some sort of new regime for these buildings that does not burden tenants, but also stabilizes them and make sure that they don't collapse, which is not really in the interest of anyone. Yeah, this is good context because the long-suffering rent-stabilized building owners have been trying to loosen regulation for a long time.

17:39And I think they even sued on a constitutional basis. And clearly the goal is to try to get this to the Supreme Court. But in that context, you mentioned labor really quickly. And I want to go back to that because one of the proposals that Mamdani has is using unionized labor to build all this affordable housing. And I'm curious how feasible that is, what the availability is, and how that actually feeds into costs. Sure. So when talking about this issue, I think it's important to keep in mind that this is not a Mamdani issue. The construction unions all were backing Cuomo. This is really a New York issue writ large.

18:20We'll see how Momdani, unlike most of the other powerful unions, the construction unions still have not uphanded Cuomo. They have not endorsed Momdani yet. That said, there's obviously organized labor's job is to advocate for the most wages and the best benefits for their members. They also need to make sure that their members keep working. So right now we're in a situation with this tax program that was negotiated in two legislative sessions ago where in particularly large projects, the labor requirements are viewed as too onerous and no one is building buildings that qualify under this wage standard.

19:03So there needs to be some sort of peace that is brokered here. And I think this could be an opportunity, you know, with all the credibility that Mamdani has built on the left to craft a peace between labor and developers to make it so that we can build housing with unionized labor, but it doesn't break the bank. It's interesting. You point out, this is something I've been thinking about, but you point out that, for example, most of the unions supported Cuomo. Some of them, such as the construction union, which I hadn't realized, still backing Cuomo. Cuomo also won the endorsement, I think, although they've switched to the hotel workers union, which I also want to talk about.

19:46But it's interesting to me because when people think about a left-wing mayor and how it can go wrong, they reach for the example of Brandon Johnson in Chicago. Brandon Johnson came out of the union machine. I mean, he was part of the teachers union in Chicago. Mom Donnie for all is, I'm sure, ideological affinity for organized labor. He doesn't come out of that machine the same way Brandon Johnson, let alone to some extent Cuomo did. So it does feel like there is a potential for some sort of, you know, shifting of the plate, so to speak. Yeah. I mean, who knows what's going to happen? But I think it's hard to argue that coalition politics and politics generally in New York City have not been scrambled by this event.

20:27And I think it remains to be seen how all that shakes out and whether these groups that have been operating in relative concert, perhaps at the expense of other constituencies, remain allied or whether new alliances are formed to solve some of the city's problems. How much of this just boils down to people, wealthier people not liking higher taxes? Because I imagine, you know, if they're trying to get a message out there saying that they don't like taxes probably doesn't resonate with a lot of New Yorkers. But saying that because of higher taxes or because of all these other policies, there's going to be less development of property, less affordable housing.

21:12Is that just them trying to spin it that way? I personally, I think so. And, you know, our media environment is structured as such that there's not really much downside in doing that. So, you know, you hear about, remember a couple of years ago, there was a lot of stories about David Tepper from Appaloosa Capital Management moving to Florida to duck a income tax increase in New Jersey. We know there's a media frenzy about this, but no one covered that he moved back. I'm always saying this. No one's going to stay in Florida. Give me a break. And I think the data or an analysis that has been done is this shows that millionaire tax flight actually is largely a myth and it occurs at a much lower rate than it does for middle and lower income people.

21:56And there's all sorts of groups that sort of take advantage of this dynamic. So for instance, a luxury real estate broker will go into the press and say, my phone is ringing off the hook on people that want to sell their apartments here and move to Palm Beach. Does that get them the attention of more people who might be thinking that way? Yeah. But does it reflect market reality? Or is anyone testing to see if they've been proven wrong? No. And I think this isn't just a New York City phenomenon. on, we're seeing a lot of dissonance between people's ideological and policy priors and actual economic analysis.

22:35And I think a really good example is a mayor who raised taxes, including on up earners, several times in New York City, friend of the pod, Michael Bloomberg. And a lot of these same people who are complaining about Zoran think that Bloomberg was their model mayor and really want to go back to the Bloomberg economy. So, you know, people are sort of flailing about looking for any possible way to spin, you know, their own preferences. Friend of the pod is a... How are you going to... Well, I was going to do the standard disclaimer. It has become standard, but Michael Bloomberg is, of course, the owner of Bloomberg LP, which runs Bloomberg Media and Bloomberg News.

23:16So there we go. That's the disclaimer. I like describing him as friend of the pod. But this is a really important point. Like, you're always going to go to Florida. Like, if you go to Florida, you can't be an in-studio guest on the Odd Laws podcast and do all the wonderful things that being in New York City affords you. It really is. I mean, I don't know, actually, the stats on who leaves New York City, but it's not the rich. I mean, it's like people who just find the city unaffordable, right? Right. And I would encourage everyone to Google Crystal Ball Young, who's a professor at Cornell who's done a lot of work on this very issue.

23:52And something you hear, you know, Kathy Wild mentioned in your interview and something you hear across business leaders generally and particularly in commercial real estate rather than multifamily is the importance of our workforce. And if people who, the talent that fuels New York City cannot afford to live here, that is bad for New York City's economy. And would lowering the cost of housing be bad for some landlords? Yes. But would it be good for a lot of other sectors of the city, including the office real estate sector? Yes. Similarly with childcare, would, I don't know anyone who's really opposed to childcare.

24:33I think that's a problem for everyone. And it would help employees and employers, but also help real estate owners. Because if you remember during the Bozzi administration, they rolled out universal pre-K. It's not like there's all this empty space in public buildings near people's houses that you're going to put, you know, child care facilities. These are going to be rented in private buildings and result in a huge amount of leasing velocity that will often occur in space that is otherwise hard to lease.

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25:48That's why they make your business growth their priority. The Chase team takes the time to understand your mission, where you are now, and where you want to go. Their broad range of solutions is designed with you in mind so you can bring your ideas to life. From banking to payment acceptance to credit cards, you can conveniently manage all your business finances all in one place with their digital tools. Looking for tips and advice? Their online resources are always available to give you the solutions you need to help your business thrive. See how your business can get stronger and go farther with Chase for Business.

26:22Learn more at Chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2025. JPMorgan Chase and Company. So, have you heard the story about the prescription plan with savings automatically built in? It's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to cmk.co.stories to learn how CVS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's cmk.co.stories. When we spoke to Kathy, she did bring up crime.