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Podcast Notes: OPERATORS - Episode: 2026 Part 1: Macro Ecommerce Predictions & Big Bets
Episode Overview In this episode, hosts Sean, Mike, Matt, and Jason discuss their predictions and strategies for the eCommerce landscape in 2026. They cover various macroeconomic trends affecting the sector, including the impact of AI, potential recessions, and consumer behavior shifts.
Key Themes
- Economic Shifts Impacting Ecommerce
- Convergence of Economy and Technology: 2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for changes in the business landscape due to economic and technological shifts.
- Potential AI Bubble: Discussion surrounding the implications of a possible AI bubble, similar to the dot-com bubble, and its effects on small businesses and larger institutions.
- Frozen Housing Market: The current state of the housing market is contributing to economic uncertainty.
- Predictions for 2026
- Bull and Bear Cases:
- Bull Case: Advances in technology, including AI, could lead to improved consumer experiences and efficiencies in business operations.
- Bear Case: A hidden recession could emerge, leading to consumer pullback and affecting discretionary spending.
- Impact of Consumer Behavior: Predicted consumer behavior shifts indicate an increased focus on deals and price sensitivity.
- Tactical Strategies for Success
- Pricing Strategies: Hosts emphasize the importance of developing effective pricing strategies to adapt to market conditions.
- New Product Launches: Continuous innovation and product development are highlighted as key to staying competitive.
- Utilization of TikTok Shops: The potential growth of TikTok as a sales channel is discussed as a new avenue for reaching customers.
- AI-Generated Creative: The hosts advocate for the integration of AI in creative processes to enhance marketing efforts.
Key Takeaways
- Deflationary Power of AI: AI is seen as a transformative force within organizations, significantly enhancing efficiency and productivity, particularly in smaller firms.
- Future of Work: The hosts predict a radical transformation in the workforce as technology evolves, with new opportunities arising despite job displacement concerns.
- Consumer Dynamics: Understanding the economic landscape and consumer motivation will be crucial for brands navigating 2026.
Discussion Highlights
- The conversation includes insights on the potential for AI to disrupt traditional job roles and the importance of adaptability in business.
- Historical comparisons are drawn between past economic trends and the current landscape, emphasizing that technology drives change and new job creation.
- The importance of maintaining a growth mindset and flexible business strategies in an unpredictable economy is underscored.
Conclusion The hosts conclude with optimism about the opportunities for small and mid-sized businesses in 2026, especially for those who can leverage technology effectively and adapt to changing consumer needs.
Sponsors
- Fulfil.io: Cloud ERP designed to efficiently scale 8 and 9-figure brands.
- Northbeam: Marketing attribution platform for data-driven performance.
- Richpanel: Customer support platform that enhances customer interactions.
- Saras Analytics: Provides insights and analytics for better business decisions.
- Rivo: Offers tools to streamline operations.
Call to Action Listeners are encouraged to stay tuned for the upcoming part two of this discussion, where the hosts will delve deeper into actionable tactics for 2026.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Transformation Landscape of 2026
0:00 to 0:52
Explore the impending changes in business driven by technology and economy.
“26 feels like a reformation year, like a bunch of businesses are going to go under big changes because you just have this convergence of the economy and technology and technology and all this stuff.”
Setting Up for 2026 Predictions
1:48 to 2:25
Introduction to the discussion on macro predictions for 2026.
“This is going to be an interesting episode.”
Harnessing AI for Software Development
2:25 to 3:56
Discussion on how AI is enabling individuals to create software easily.
“thank our sponsors for this episode before we jump in.”
The Future of Work and Job Displacement
3:56 to 5:24
Examine the potential job displacement due to technological advancements.
“In our team, we have an HR director who's making little web apps for customer feedback or customer surveys or employee appreciation.”
The Shift in Economic Structures
5:24 to 9:01
Insights into how GDP and quality of life can diverge in the future.
“Right now, professional sports are 3 % of GDP.”
The Evolution of Technology's Impact
9:01 to 10:31
Discuss how technology changes our interactions and quality of life.
“of the things economists have really struggled with with technology is, OK, if the technology is providing so much value, where's the productivity growth?”
Skepticism Around AI Integration
10:34 to 12:32
Debate on the skepticism regarding AI's effectiveness in businesses.
“Can I ask you guys, I've been listening to a lot of podcasts lately.”
Comparing Historical Tech Waves
12:32 to 13:51
Comparing the current AI wave to past technological revolutions.
“It's going to be a different rate than we expect.”
Reflections on AI's Productivity Gains
13:51 to 14:05
Discussion on the perceived lack of productivity gains from AI in large companies.
“I guess, I mean, Jason, this is not an age shot, but you're old enough to have remembered and been in probably not – maybe you were working during the dot-com moment.”
The Early Computer Revolution
14:05 to 15:03
Explore the transformative impact of early computing on society and individual careers.
“To me, Mike and Jason, this is more about the early use of the computer as it is like e-commerce or mobile phone or social media, like those waves.”
Show all 32 chapters
Comparing AI to the Dot-Com Era
15:03 to 16:04
Discuss the parallels between today's AI developments and the dot-com era of the late 90s.
“what is the most accurate comparison for you, having actually been up close and personal to some of these things?”
Adaptability in a Changing Job Market
16:04 to 18:33
Learn about the importance of a growth mindset in adapting to rapid technological changes.
“But like all those there used to be buggy whip salesmen and blacksmiths.”
The Future of Education and Expertise
18:33 to 20:00
Understand how rapid knowledge expansion disrupts traditional education models.
“just got to drive, you've got to drive mentalities and mindsets into your people in a world where, like we said, we know there's going to be continued advancement of the technology and we know things are going to change.”
The Value of Knowledge in the AI Era
21:23 to 22:17
Explore how AI is making expertise more accessible and its effects on higher education.
“Jason, you brought up that you're worried about STEM grads and coders.”
Market Dynamics and Job Security
22:17 to 23:29
Discuss the changing landscape of job security and the rising costs of education in the AI age.
“years ago, about 15 % of the students that came to OU were majoring in business.”
Corporate vs. Entrepreneurial Mindsets
23:29 to 26:11
Examine the differing perspectives of corporate employees and entrepreneurs regarding success.
“Okay, so my general premise here, Matt, is that the amount of impact AI is making in your company is directly inversely proportional to the number of employees.”
AI's Impact on Business Efficiency
26:11 to 28:00
Analyze the current effects of AI on business operations and the potential for future innovations.
“So smaller companies have that advantage.”
The Impact of AI Valuation Fluctuations
28:00 to 30:40
Explore how the valuation shifts in AI could drive innovation and efficiency.
“And that simultaneously, we probably have gotten over our skis on valuation.”
Understanding Economic Bubbles and Debt
30:40 to 33:16
Discuss the role of debt in economic bubbles and its implications for the market.
“But when that happens, I think it's going to be everything we think it is and a heck of a lot more than that.”
E-commerce Predictions for 2026
33:16 to 36:04
Forecast the future of e-commerce and the importance of profitability for businesses.
“I think it might be the most bullish time in history for the individual is the way I would say it.”
Consumer Behavior and Economic Trends
36:04 to 38:26
Analyze current consumer behavior and its implications for future economic conditions.
“you know, I assume some growth as it seems like the country loves being inflationary.”
Bull vs Bear Cases for 2026
38:26 to 41:10
Evaluate potential bull and bear cases for the economy and e-commerce in 2026.
“I follow a couple of people on Twitter that are really tied in with like trucking.”
AI Market Trends and Economic Divergence
42:01 to 45:02
Exploring the implications of AI on market trends and economic conditions.
“And like Sean said about the quality of life is still better, right?”
Bull and Bear Cases for 2026
45:02 to 47:50
Discussing the potential bullish and bearish scenarios for the economy in 2026.
“It's like, we all know that the AI story has been too good for too long.”
Pricing Strategies in Uncertain Markets
47:50 to 50:59
Examining pricing strategies in response to market changes and tariffs.
“And I know that that I know the elasticity of all of our categories and I know that's going to lead to growth.”
Driving Value and Business Growth
52:02 to 56:01
Focusing on delivering value to customers and the opportunities for growth in 2026.
“The other thing is we just spent an hour complaining about stuff out of our control.”
Excitement for Operational Growth
56:01 to 56:41
Learn about the expansion of operational capacity and future potential.
“Like right now, if we grow even 10 % from where we are now, I get backlogged on order volume.”
The Role of Technology in Business Expansion
56:41 to 57:21
Explore how technology enables companies to diversify and expand product offerings.
“one way or another are showing this with our businesses, is it's going to allow businesses to go way wider than they could before.”
The New Super Skill: Going Wide
57:21 to 58:07
Understand the trend of businesses expanding into broader markets for profitability.
“And the fact that you're engaging there, Jason, I know what you guys are going to be doing with product and how you're going to be doing more.”
Challenges of Product Diversification
58:07 to 58:49
Discuss the complexities and resistance faced when launching new products.
“And that's going to lead to bigger businesses, more profitable businesses.”
Balancing Macro Trends with Tactical Business Decisions
58:49 to 59:20
Learn the importance of being aware of macro trends while focusing on controllable aspects.
“Can I also say like, Sean, I do agree that all of this macro stuff is not helpful in how you like tactically run your business.”
Navigating Economic Awareness in Business
59:20 to 1:00:10
Discover how economic awareness impacts pricing and decision-making.
“But I do find it interesting that a lot of people and consumer do think about broadly what is impacting consumers.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:0026 feels like a reformation year, like a bunch of businesses are going to go under big changes because you just have this convergence of the economy and technology and technology and all this stuff. and it's kind of like, man, get ready for change. It's here. It's coming. It's the new constant. I'm building so much cool myself right now. I feel like a complete weapon. The ability for anyone to make software is like this big unlock. I've built apps for my team in the last week, like my own custom apps. The future of work will just look radically different than now. You can't imagine it. Yeah, it's just super early days, right?
0:31But there are certain things that are just transformative to society. Smartphones are transformative and now AI will be transformative. The amount of impact AI is making in your company is inversely proportional to the number of employees. And when there's technology shifts, this is when smart companies really thrive. At the end of the day, you will succeed if you can deliver value to your customer. Welcome to the Operators Podcast. But before we get started with today's episode, I want to thank the six sponsors that make this podcast possible. Fulfill, Northbeam, Sarah's PostScript, Revo, and Rich Panel.
1:04Could not do the show without you. Here we go.
1:15Jones Road Beauty. Cody, this ad read is just for you. Fulfill will help you move off. There's no expensive middleware. There's no third-party developers. There's no consultants off Upwork you got to hire. You can be live in a couple of weeks for order management, inventory management, accounting, EDI, purchasing, and manufacturing. It pipes those orders directly to my 3PL and takes care of everybody. They are the number one ERP for this podcast. Make sure the Operators Podcast, and you can use them too. Thank you so much for being the number one sponsor. Thank you, listener, for listening, and I'll talk to you later.
1:45Goodbye. Okay, welcome back to the Operators Pod. This is going to be an interesting episode. We are talking macro picture for 2026. What are we all excited about? What is our bull case for the year in consumer? What is our bear case for the year in consumer? And we're going to give you, from each of us, what is one thing that we are tactically looking forward to trying in 2026. So stick around to the end of this episode and we'll get into the actual tactics. This is part one of a two-parter. We're going to actually get into like way more tactics in the next one. So listen to this. This is the setup.
2:22We're going to follow it up with even more tactical stuff for you guys. I want to thank our sponsors for this episode before we jump in. Fulfill, Saris, Revo, Postscript, Northbeam, Rich Panel. These are all companies that we use. If you don't know that and you're listening to the show, we use these companies. So we don't just take sponsorship dollars and support from companies that we don't use. These are people we trust. So we're happy to recommend them. Let's get in the episode. 26 feels like a reformation year that a bunch of businesses are going to go under big changes because you just have this convergence of the economy and technology and all this stuff.
2:56And it's kind of like, man, get ready for change. It's here. it's coming it's the new constant dude anyway yes i've been building so much i've been texting sean this like i'm building so much cool myself right now like i feel like a complete weapon like are you have you gotten one-shotted by ai do you guys are you guys like personally i've been one-shotted by this idea that like you play with the ai one enough that you just kind of get galaxy brain you're like i'm about to solve physics yes is this what's happened to you matt yes yes i'm I have built apps for my team in the last week, like my own custom apps.
3:33I'm like, here, you do this job. Let me make that job faster and easier for you. Here's an app. And I send them an address and my team looks at me sideways. They're like, wait, how? How did you do that? We would have to go ask the developers to do that. And I'm just sitting here like, no, man, Saturday, coffee, told my wife I won't see her till Sunday. And I just made it happen. It's been awesome. The ability for anyone to make software is like this big unlock. In our team, we have an HR director who's making little web apps for customer feedback or customer surveys or employee appreciation. And it wasn't possible before.
4:13It would be a spreadsheet, right? Because Excel is like entry-level coding. And now you can just do it with cool visual interfaces. So it has been pretty awesome. You know what's crazy is Ramp being like, you know what we're going to do is take on Excel. That's how crazy the reduction in engineering has been is that now like things that we thought were super moded might not be moded anymore. I mean, the new Claude release, they said that I think their basic quote when they released the newest version of Claude like this week was basically this is a glimpse of the future. we gave it a test there's like a two or three hour time test that they've given every candidate that they've ever interviewed and obviously they give them the ability to like look at notes and look at the internet and stuff because the questions are so hard that it's like you can't really go anywhere you can't go stack overflow and answer these questions and so anyway they give they gave this new version of claude this three hour time test and it got a score higher than any human has ever gotten on it and they're just like this is the future the future is like software engineering is going away as like a profession yeah this is this is really that's true but it's becoming more believable mike guys we're all parents or soon to be parents right and i grew up when i raised my kids in a world where everyone was like stem stem stem right go go to stem education and and everyone was like learn to code right you know just and now i mean what happens it's it's the rate of change is geometric it's really really wild like we are in for a wild wild ride yeah so i'm going to parrot back some stuff that i've just been absorbing and listening to but you know everyone's scared of like job displacement and it will definitely displace jobs, but it's not going to like, you know, destroy the future of jobs.
6:09Right now, professional sports are 3 % of GDP. And in the future, it could just be 20 % of GDP. That's really interesting. 3%. I would not have guessed it's that high. Yeah. Yeah. And at some point, I mean, that's all things tied to sports. It's going to sports, it's buying tickets, TV rights, whatever. Humans find stuff to do, right? And the future of work will just look radically different than now. You can't imagine it. And imagine going to the 1800s and you're going to a coal miner and you explain what a TikToker does and that the TikToker makes way more than they make, right? Or going to, in the 1700s, 99 % of people farmed for a living and then explaining what a VC does.
6:51Just being like, yeah, so basically - They still don't do anything. yeah you're gonna like kind of fly around to conferences and there's like their minds would explode that's us right now we can't understand what the jobs of the future are but i guarantee humans will do something and it might look like fun to people right now like explaining a professional skiing okay go to any time period in human history and be like yeah so for fun we're gonna go to a mountain they're gonna go down the mountain really fast and the person who does it the best makes$10 million a year. It's like the lines would explode, right?
7:23So all of these jobs we've created, there's just going to be a bunch of those in the future. There was a really fascinating article, Sean, that I read that basically was talking about how management, like the idea of management was not like a job that existed basically before the railroad because you didn't, everything was localized. You didn't have businesses and companies that were really spread out. And so there wasn't really this need for a management class. And then with the advent of the railroad and, and this more distributed companies and operations spread over large geographic areas, you suddenly needed a managerial class.
8:01And so it's really, I think a compelling thought of obviously it's going to move and the skillsets are going to move and, and how are they going to move? And, and Jason, your point's like, nobody knows. I think what we do know is that it's certainly not going to look like what the last 30 years has looked like. Yeah. And there's another thing that is very foreign to think about is that GDP could go down, but the quality of life goes up. And there's a real use case or a real example of this in Japan, right? So Japan GDP went down in the 80s and you would obviously rather live in 2005 than 1985 because you get better cars, better technology, better medical care, better food, the whole thing because time went on.
8:43But the GDP actually went down in that time period. Right. So if technology is really deflationary, like, yes, you might make way less money, but the money could go further if robots build all the houses and make all the food. Right. So there's a there's a great point on this, Sean. I think I mentioned on this before that one of the things economists have really struggled with with technology is, OK, if the technology is providing so much value, where's the productivity growth? Because the productivity growth feeds into GDP. And part of the answer seems to be, well, there's so many ways that technology has made our life better that don't show up in GDP at all.
9:21Like if you think about it, like all the information that's available for free on the internet, well, that doesn't hit GDP anymore because it's just free, you know, but obviously our quality of life has gone way up because of the access to all of that information. And so I think that's a really interesting idea of like one of the reasons why technology ends up being so deflationary i don't know if that means the money supply goes down or people make you know kind of less dollars like with the way that we have debt and stuff i think it would be going the other way but in general this idea that like the standard of living just kind of rockets up is that technology has this way of making things that were expensive or exclusive making them almost like costless and and this is kind of the point that we're talking about like in the past there were so many things where it's like well if we wanted to do that at our company we need a full-time developer we needed three full-time developers and now you're like maybe we need zero developers like we can just do that for free on lovable and that's just worth where we're at today who knows what it'll be a year or five years from now and how many other things that we're just going to be able to basically have for free because of the advance of technology.
10:34Can I ask you guys, I've been listening to a lot of podcasts lately. I'm doing more driving. It's like I feel like I'm daddy chauffeur Jason on the parent thing. So I'm listening to a lot of podcasts, shuttling my kid around. As business owners, what do you think of this? I'm hearing this narrative that AI may not be all it's cracked up to be and that there's a lot of companies that have tried stuff and they said, oh, it doesn't really do anything, you know? And now there's this whole like question of like, is this actually impactful to companies? And I, and there was that whole, I think it was Harvard or somebody dropped that whole study about all these businesses that tried it and then started pulling back on the investments.
11:15And I started thinking, I'm like, are they just not looking at small companies like us? And they're just looking at like Procter and Gamble. And that's like, that's it. That's their sample size. Like what, but you know what? It's like, it's not true. It's like this. It's like, you know what we learned in 1999 that e-commerce doesn't work, you know, just a, just a total bubble fad. Like it'll never, it can't work. It's like, no, we were just early, you know, some of the infrastructure, some of the understanding wasn't there, but people got, so it's, it's really fascinating. If you look at the.com bubble, it was clearly a bubble and it was clearly things getting ahead of itself with like web ban and pets.com.
11:57But what's fascinating is that all of those ideas that we look back at and we're like, well, this was a bubble, this was excess, and we lampoon. They're all like, what do you think Chewy is? Chewy is the reincarnation of pets.com just 10 or 15 years later when the world's ready for it. And so like the market knew it. The market had it nailed. Like this is going to be revolutionary. It's going to be revolutionary in all of these different areas. But that didn't necessarily mean that we were quite ready for whatever reason to get there. That's AI. Like everybody sees where this is going. Nobody knows the timeline or how fast we're going to get there.
12:32And I think the other thing that's not clear to everybody is there are some real world constraints, some non-technology constraints that are going to slow it down and are going to make the kind of integration, adaptation, usefulness of it. It's going to be a different rate than we expect. and we don't know what all those are. I mean, some of them can be like the government and things like that, but we know where it's going. Anybody with half a brain, I think, can look at things now and say like, okay, it's pretty clear. You wake up 30 years from now, things are gonna look really different. Okay, try to get your company to switch from monday.com to ClickUp or whatever, like a project management software.
13:11It's impossible. It ends up being a full year. And this idea is called change management. Yeah, yeah. I hate those two words so much. It's so hard to get people to do that and then just do that on a massive scale throughout everything. Mike is totally right that the internet took 30 years to really mature and become what it is. The mobile phone took 15 years. Like in 2010, nobody thought we would be doing everything on our phone all of the time. There was no app store. Yeah, have 12 hours of screen time, and now it's here. So, I mean, AI will just take 10 years probably from now until 2035, but then it's going to be, you know, as big as both of those things have been.
13:51I guess, I mean, Jason, this is not an age shot, but you're old enough to have remembered and been in probably not – maybe you were working during the dot-com moment. To me, Mike and Jason, this is more about the early use of the computer as it is like e-commerce or mobile phone or social media, like those waves. those waves didn't have, they weren't tools for most people. The computer was like a tool for most people. And when I was 10, I got my first computer and Sean, that might sound crazy to you because you're young and you're like, I always had a computer, but like when I was 10 and I had it for my, nobody else in my class did like nobody had a computer at home.
14:40You knew what it was, but you didn't have it. And I remember being in high school and I was the only one who was like, Have you heard of this thing called programming and coding? Check this out. So Jason, I'm curious, when you hear this rhetoric around AI bubble and it's not having the productivity gains, that these big companies are saying the productivity gains aren't there, what is the most accurate comparison for you, having actually been up close and personal to some of these things? Yeah. First of all, Mike makes a good point about the dot-com era. I lived in a dot-com era. I raised money for a dot-com company.
15:18I sold it. I raised like 15 million in venture money. Our company was not a super success, but we sold it, and it was actually a decent outcome for me. If you look at Mark Cuban, like talk about someone who got lucky in the dot-com era, like so much luck. Crazy. But most companies failed, right? Our company essentially was a failure. And so it's just super early days, right? But there are certain things that are just transformative to society, right? Like the automobile was transformative to society. The microchip was transformative to society. The World Wide Web was transformative to society.
15:59Smartphones were transformative. And now AI will be transformative. And I and I agree with Sean as well in that, you know, we just don't know where it's going to go. But like all those there used to be buggy whip salesmen and blacksmiths. Right. And these people are all gone and there are different jobs. And like just things are really changing. And I think everything is going to work out. You know, like it's going to. I'm such an optimist. It's scary for a lot of people. And I'm really scared for like all the people that were told to stem, become coders. like Matt Bertulli's building apps on Saturday, you know, but you know, this is, this is just like, you know, history repeats itself over and over and over again.
16:39It's just like, I want to jump in. Cause I think you're making a good point. You're making a good point, Jason. And maybe one of the delineations I would draw is that when I went, when I showed up to college, everybody's like, what are you going to major in? What are you going to do? What career are you going to do? And there used to be this kind of assumption of like, you can make a decision and then do that thing for 10, 20, 50 years. I think that's the thing that's getting disrupted. Like this idea that you can just kind of say like, oh, I'm going to specialize and I'm going to do X. I think we're living in a world where mindsets are much, much more important than career paths or skill sets, where it's like a growth mindset is basically priceless today.
17:23Because here's what we know. We know that the tools of today won't be the tools of even six months from now. Who knows what six years from now will be. And that if you have a growth mindset, you can roll with the punches. You can adapt to the changing tides and you can pick up the new tools. And as new tools and new abilities come out, like even what you might choose to do with your time or how you might choose to contribute to society, that might change. But if you don't have a growth mindset, if you have more of this kind of static, like I'm going to pick up this set of skills and do this thing.
17:51Here's a really crazy stat. I looked this up this week. The knowledge we have about the human body is doubling every 73 days 73 days so from the inception of human history until august you take all that time and we learned x and then we learned about that same amount since august and it's just like so if you're like you're in med school like just it's just amazing how much that disrupts like our concept of education and expertise and everything else. And so I think to be a successful person, be a successful business leader, like it's just starting with you, you've just got to drive, you've got to drive mentalities and mindsets into your people in a world where, like we said, we know there's going to be continued advancement of the technology and we know things are going to change.
18:46We just don't know all the ways. The one other point I'd make that going back to what we were talking about is that like there's a lot of things that the market's like oh the technology is going to do this and do we is it going to be six months six years you know a decade we don't know but it's going to get there eventually i think some of the stuff with robotics is like that where you're like yeah yeah i think house cleaners are going away you know i think it's going to be robots um and but the other thing that's even more interesting is i think if we went back and we looked at technology, what we would find is every time you have a major disruption like this, there's all of these kind of foreseen consequences.
19:25And then there's this huge bucket of unforeseen kind of consequences and opportunities. And that to me is the really interesting thing is right now, I think the market and most business owners are like, well, okay, I see all of these things that are probably going to get improved, disrupted, changed. But then there's a whole group of things that we're just not even thinking of because it's second and third order effects that we, and so we just can't quite get there in our minds. And that's where like the really big opportunities are gonna lay because nobody's anticipated. All right, folks, this episode is brought to you by our friends at Northbeam, the marketing attribution platform that every smart performance team should be using.
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20:46Northbeam's new model fixes that. Clicks plus deterministic views actually shows you which ad impressions drove conversions. Not guesses, not modeled correlations, verified data. You'll know which channels are really moving the needle and which ones are just taking the credit. And yeah, the biggest brands are already using it. Manscaped, Dollar Shave Club, Hexclad, Gruns, and many more. So if you want to see what real deterministic view attribution looks like, go to northbeam.io slash demo to book a demo and tell them that we sent you. Well, here's one. Jason, you brought up that you're worried about STEM grads and coders.
21:29Really what has happened is that knowledge,
21:36And expertise has just become very, very cheap. That is what AI has done, right? Like there's free information and there's free intelligence. Intelligence is very cheap. People are just going to stop going to school. It's like, you know, right now we have a huge college debt bubble, right? Like people have, I think it's$1.5 trillion in student loans. And like all these colleges just keep raising tuition. What happens when you have a market where people can't get jobs? like the degrees end up becoming worthless or not worth what they used to be. And the college is really fucking expensive. Kids just don't go and opt out.
22:10Well, I can actually tell you something because Sean, I'm pretty involved at OU. I'm like on a couple of the boards. If you look at the enrollments at OU, University of Oklahoma, what you see is basically about 10 years ago, about 15 % of the students that came to OU were majoring in business. Today, it's almost 30%. You're seeing this like dramatic rise. And basically what they, what the, the hypothesis is, is that, um, parents are like, Hey, you know what? No more, uh, African gender studies degrees. Like you're going to get something that's going to pay itself off and business is like the surest bet.
22:48And so what you're seeing is true. You're definitely seeing less people go to college. The statistics bear that out. But also when they are going to college, parents and students are like, no, I want to know exactly how I'm going to get my money back on this degree. I was going to say, if something's a bad or I people stop doing it. It's like and that's free markets. That's a good thing. Like we want the market to reallocate capital towards things that are creating a return. Right. OK, so here, hang on. Answer me this then, you guys, like very black and white, true or false. is AI having material impact in your company's efficiency today?
23:29Okay, so my general premise here, Matt, is that the amount of impact AI is making in your company is directly inversely proportional to the number of employees. That the more employees you have in your company, the harder it is for AI to make impact. Oh, I love this take. And the reason for that is actually pretty straightforward. People are going to always work in their economic best interest, And AI is actually not fundamentally in most workers' current economic best interest. And so you have all kinds of social structures and ways that people can subtly or overtly throw their body in front of things.
24:03And that's actually the behavior you would expect in a Fortune 500 company with a lot of layers that could potentially go away is they're going to find all kinds of ways to maybe make it not work. Sean, Mike, that's such a great take. Yeah. So good. also we like it's a carrot and stick like what's the reward inside of a fortune 500 company for being better at your job like there's you know i got i got in an argument with a guy on twitter and he was talking about how great sd lauder is as a business and i'm like yeah no duh sd lauder is a great business it's like it's worth 40 billion dollars they make a bunch of stuff it's super profitable their stock price is down like 80 from all-time high crazy yeah and he's like And since going public in 1993, it's up 10X or whatever.
24:53I'm like, yeah, it's not a very good return. And he's like, yeah, it's a great business. It's going to be here forever. I'm like, yeah, but the reason why we get to all succeed is because we actually care about winning and we know what winning is. If winning changes day to day, we'll just do whatever that winning is. If it's revenue growth, if it's profitability, that's what we'll do because we actually want to win. And if you're a junior manager inside S2 Lauder, your job is to not get fired and be charming enough that eventually get promoted, eventually get promoted. And the business could be down 80 percent from all time highs.
25:24It doesn't matter. You're trying to not get fired. You nailed it. And I think this is the thing that makes the entrepreneurial class and the kind of corporate class misunderstand each other is like the way that they see the world could not be more different. It's kind of like when an entrepreneur talks to a banker and they're like, our business is going awesome. It's growing 80 percent. And the banker's like, that's really scary. And you're like, what in the world? Like, wouldn't you be excited about growth? And it's like, no, they just hear risk. Corporate is literally like corporations are filled with people that are literally like, I want safety.
25:58I want security. I want continuity. And so the biggest question that I go into every week with is how do I make myself look good so that I don't get fired? That's it. Yeah. And that's their definition of winning, right? Where our definition of winning is whatever the best thing is at the moment in the time, right? So smaller companies have that advantage. And when there's technology shifts, this is when smaller companies really thrive, right? Like I built my career by being the first guy to want to run Facebook ads. like i had an agency because bigger agencies didn't want to learn that scale they thought it was beneath them right and this is the same thing where it's like if you're willing to learn ai you can you can build a huge uh book of business you make a great service business or you can make your company better so how is ai making an impact inside of rich today uh totally i wish it was making a bigger impact that's the thing it's like we have everybody using it all the time right i think we talked about creative and everyone knows it's coming for creative and I think that is actually, I thought it was going to be a year away, bro.
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26:58I think in January. Yeah. I think January I'm going to have, I'm already running full AI at, so it's like, it's really there, man. Um, it is really crazy. I guess what I'm getting at guys is like, I'm, I'm struggling with this. Like AI is a bubble and it's not different this time. It's the same thing as the.com thing. And that's just because I know so many people using this and I was alive and working during that bubble and that bust and nobody was buying on the internet. Like as if you asked like a hundred people in the street, Hey, have you ordered anything online? Two would be yes. Whereas if you go in your network of small businesses and I don't know the numbers on like what percent of GDP in the U S is a small is contributed by small business entrepreneurial endeavors versus large ones.
27:45But I'm having, I'm really struggling with this. Like everybody I know that as a small business is getting productivity. Both can be true, Matt, because bubbles are defined by valuations. And the reality is that you have more companies posting the fastest revenue growth graphs we've ever seen in AI. That's definitely true. And that simultaneously, we probably have gotten over our skis on valuation. But that's not necessarily a bad thing for the future of AI. The valuation that AI is trading at has nothing to do with the transformative nature of the technology. I'd even make the argument that the bubble popping on AI might be one of the most bullish things that could happen for it because right now the money's easy.
28:30And so the answer to every problem is just like throw more money at it. Like you need more power, just build more, you know, build more energy plants. You need more processing, like just buy more NVIDIA chips. And I think that if we go through a period where the money's not flowing quite as easily, you know what's going to happen is an explosion of innovation. Just perfect example. DeepSeek, part of how DeepSeek for China was innovative is they didn't have access to as many NVIDIA clusters as everybody else. So they just had to figure out a cheaper, more efficient way to train the models. And so like even the bubble popping, I don't think is going to slow this down.
29:10If anything, it might turbocharge it because my kind of base case assumption, and the reason why I think all of the assumptions about power and how like eventually we run out of power and everything is that we're going to get so much more efficient. Like think about the human brain. This is one of the big things that the AI people are thinking about. The human brain is not from a processing perspective. It can't compete with some of these computers, But on an energy efficient, energy efficient basis, the human brain is like orders of magnitude more efficient than what we're doing with silicon.
29:44And so like there's a gap there that we haven't figured out. At some point, we're going to figure that out. We're going to figure out how to do with silicon something more like what the brain does. It's kind of energy efficiency of the brain. And at that point, this thing just scales to the moon. When does that breakthrough happen? We don't know. So there was a really good piece on Twitter where a guy was saying, I think this is the highest leverage point in human history. And here's the reason why. There's probably less than six breakthroughs that were needed between here and AGI. And conceivably, one person could come up with all six of those.
30:18Conceivably, they probably would fit in less than 10 ,000 lines of code. We just don't know what they are yet. And so the exciting thing and also the uncertain thing is, at what pace do we make those kind of five or six aha moments of discovery that really take this thing to the next level? Nobody knows. That could be the next six months. It could be the next six weeks. It could take 10 years. Nobody knows. But when that happens, I think it's going to be everything we think it is and a heck of a lot more than that. Okay. But the question, is it a bubble? Jason knows this, and I will love Jason's opinion.
30:51Bubbles are defined by debt. So unless there's a lot of debt in the system, it's very hard for the bubble to pop. Jason, what are your thoughts on that? Well, there's plenty of debt in all of our systems right now. So it's all pretty scary, like the house of cards. That is the economy. So that's what concerns me. It's all hidden, Sean. What people would argue is the debt's there. They're increasingly, Facebook and these companies are moving the debt off their balance sheets to try and obscure. Yeah, they're trying to obscure from investors. It's kind of like Enron. It's like you just pretend like the debt isn't there.
31:30And just as an example, Oracle, their spread on their credit default swaps has doubled in the last few weeks. Oracle's got some really significant debt on their bets. So we're in the stage of the bubble where people are starting to use debt. And some of these commitments that they've made, it's not even clear how people would fund it, like the amounts of debt that it would take. You know, you look at open, I think OpenAI was like, hey, here's our five year plan. Everybody's like, those numbers are bonkers. Like, where does that money come from? It would have to be debt because there's there's really no way the revenue could scale at a pace to keep up with those numbers.
32:06So I think that's the question everybody's asking, Sean, is like, OK, now we are moving into the debt phase. We're at this stage in the world economy. We went off the gold standard decades and decades ago. You just look at the leveraging of the economy. Sean is always talking about China and their debt. It's almost like, how does it all hold up? You're asking, how does it all hold up? But it still does. It still holds up. So I think we've kind of created this. The debt is like the foundational infrastructure of how the world works today. And nobody wants to see it, the foundation fall down. So on the one hand, it's like it's concerning.
32:48But on the other hand, it's just it's it's been in place for so long. so it's hard I guess Jason put it another way there's an incredible amount of incentive to keep that machine going and I think then the thing I'm taking away Mike from you and Sean is this is actually an incredibly bullish time for a small business or startups or even a mid-sized business that's more entrepreneurial in culture I think it might be the most bullish time in history for the individual is the way I would say it. And it's probably the most threatening and scary time in history for institutions and large organizations.
33:30Sean, what about consumer? Because I think this ties into the whole, how are you guys thinking about the next 12 months for your brands and then for consumer? Well, okay. I'm going to answer the question, but the difference between now and the dot-com bubble is the dot-com bubble we talked about pets.com or whatever but like there was there was so many providers who did not have real businesses and this bubble is supported by the world's greatest businesses of all time like yeah we're talking about the bubble of microsoft it's like bro they make 300 billion dollars a year it's like they have there's a lot of money to come in they can support a lot of debt right um now with that being said i do agree that we shouldn't even care about the bubble the bubble has nothing to do with us right like i don't care if the nasdaq falls 40 or whatever what i care about is am i getting better tools to sell things to more people and we are and that's why the the title of today's episode is going to be 2026 bullish or bearish or something like that right um this 2025 i call it one of the years so there's slower e-commerce penetration there's uh amen gosh let's launch 25 into the sun guys if i never do another 2025 i would be too soon just say it that's great sean tell us how you really feel well yeah and and this came up because there's a lot of companies who are trying to um become profitable right now right like if you're an e-com company who raised venture money you lost money from 2015 to like 2020 and you're like no we're gonna make money now right um we're gonna become profitable and those are the golden years what do you mean you lost money during the good times right we're we're in the years there's slower e-commerce penetration there's higher interest rates inventory has been a roller coaster because uh it's been very hard to work with china and then the the t is tariffs so like you can't diversify your supply chain so we're very much in the years right now um With that being said, as long as you are profitable, as long as you've made those changes, 2026 will be great for you.
35:44It will just continue to get better, right? Because we are in our 2004, right? The bottom has come out. Pets.com has been delisted. And we can beat Google and we can rebuild our company as a more normal structured world, right? So that's what I'm super excited about. I think the future is going to be awesome. if you survived at this point, if you're profitable at this point, you will get, you know, I assume some growth as it seems like the country loves being inflationary. We're going to print a bunch of money. Everyone's going to have way more money. But also you'll just become more profitable because you'll be more efficient.
36:19We will have AI doing half the work inside your business. So 2026, I think it's going to be awesome. That's my take. What do you guys have any? I mean, I'm like super bullish on 2026 broadly. I think the one thing, it's always consumer for me, right? So it's like, Sean, everything you said is true, but if the customer is in worse shape, then all the best tools in the world for you and I doesn't really help us. Like the force of the consumer, and so like if the NASDAQ goes down 40%, that's not great for consumer. Like 50 % of all discretionary spending is driven by the top 10 % of households. Those top 10 % of people are gonna feel the wealth effect.
37:00that's going to hurt us in consumer. We should talk about the consumer and what we're seeing Black Friday and different things because I generally kind of tune out the consumer conversation. But man, I think you have to be paying attention right now. I'm in 2026 mode. I don't know if you guys are right now. Like I know that we're days away from Black Friday, but I'm very much like I'm out there. Well, I guess what I'm saying, Matt, is what the consumer is showing right now, the question is where are they going to be in 26? And it's for me, it's the biggest question mark, because right now what we're seeing is that they are way more kind of deal motivated than, you know, we've seen at any point in our 10 years.
37:42We're in a recession. Clearly, we're in a recession. And the the AI stuff is not. But if you strip out AI like it's it's not a good economy. and that's the one thing that has me concerned is like how much is that trend going to continue because that's obviously, and I think you nailed it. The kind of the nightmare scenario for next year is, well, the consumer's not in a good shape. We're in a recession and then you get some kind of a major stock market retrenchment and the top 10 % really pull back and then you're kind of getting hit on both fronts. That's probably the place where it might get worse before it gets better.
38:20So I'm watching that. I mean, like there's some there's some data points that are leading indicators that are pretty concerning, like trucking. I follow a couple of people on Twitter that are really tied in with like trucking. And it's just like nothing's moving, guys. Nobody's moving anything. And that is like, OK, yeah. Why? So this is going to be a good exercise. Everyone should say one bear case for 2026 and one bull case for 2026. Like if things go wrong, how are they going to go wrong? If things go well, how are they going to go well? I think it's good to have the duality there. It's very easy to be super bullish or super bearish.
38:58So Mike, what is your, if things go awesome, how's that going to happen? Yeah, I think if things go awesome, it's that the technology just continues to get better. That even though we are in maybe a little bit of a bubble, we start to really recognize some of the benefits here. So it's very easy to believe that you get some kind of a combination of lower interest rates, stimulus money, and continued technological advancement, and that that's really great if you're a small business owner. Okay. And then what's your bear case? If things fall apart and implode in our face, what is it? Yeah, it's that we're in a fairly severe recession right now without realizing it because the AI is masking some of it.
39:43And then sometime in January or February, you get a major stock market retrenchment of 20%, 30%, and it creates a negative feedback loop. We've made this observation on this show before, but we're just – the economy and our businesses are just way more dependent on the top 10 % than we probably would like. and the top 10%, most of their wealth is held in equities. And so if the stock market, the stock market was up huge this year. What was it up? Anybody know the number? It's 15 % right now. Yeah. Considering the last two years were also high. The core of the e-commerce spending cohort, I mean the e-commerce spending cohort is going to gravitate towards that top 10%, probably even more than other parts of the economy.
40:28that that core probably gets really disproportionately hit by a pullback in asset prices. And so if you got a really significant pullback, the other the other potential risk here is if October, I've mentioned this before, October was the single biggest loss of white collar jobs like corporate layoffs in a month that we've seen since the great financial crisis. So imagine two or three more months of that combined with a stock market retrenchment where you have a lot of white collar top 10 % type people losing their jobs and you get assets going down and plus a recession. And it's like that's the much more scary picture.
41:10We were at eCommerce Fuel Live. This is Andrew's live event that he does once a year. And I'm at the opening night party talking with Ahmed, CEO of Rich Palin, one of the great sponsors of this podcast. and Amit and I are having a good chat and beside me walks in Katie to say hi to Amit. He goes, hey Matt, is this your EA? And before I could react, Katie says, I am not Matt's EA. Matt is my EA. Amit could not catch a break the rest of this event. Switching to Rich Panel is gonna pay for itself anyway. Just go to richpanel.com slash demo. Oh, and Amit promised me there's actually a super special promo code.
41:43If you use sorrykaty, sorrykaty, you'll get 20 % off your subscription. Give it a shot. okay so jason what's your what's your what's your bull case my bull case let me start with the bear case because it's just the bull case is so much easier like the bear case is going to come out and ai stocks are like holding the market together right and so um just like we had a dot-com bubble i do think there's an ai bubble i think the ai stocks are a bubble i mean you saw Michael Burry who called the subprime um he called the subprime debacle and um anyway he may be wrong on this one but like I I think there's and there's gonna the bear cases there's there's massive disruption of high earners right um hiring people getting disrupted uh by AI and businesses hiring less and like that's a there's a pretty nasty uh bear case out there but we're going to continue to see this divergence in economic reality for people.
42:46And like Sean said about the quality of life is still better, right? You can live in a trailer and have a huge flat screen TV for$300 and play your video games and surf your play and do what you want. And that's kind of like the evolution of society these days. I'm not saying it's good, but this is the typical economic reality. okay matt what's what what's your what's your bear case bear case would be ai asset deflation like so anything that's like an ai equity like that's related so anything that's inflated because of the ai sort of bubble the wealth effect does go both ways so like if that top 10 is feeling less rich they'll spend less money now i want to say like i want to bring housing into this because I think the flip to that is what Jason is saying.
43:41If you get a lot of rate cutting, because like, look, if the AI stocks, like Nvidia goes down, guys, that's going to be blood. Like that's a lot of the S &P 500 is in one company and then tied to them. Now, the flip of that is if rates come down, there's a, we talk a lot about the top 10 % of incomers and what they, their impact on discretionary spending is. What we don't talk about is that the US housing market is effectively frozen and has been for a long time because people are locked into low rates. They don't want to sell. But if the housing market starts to move, that also has a positive wealth effect on people.
44:20They feel richer. They're able to tap into the wealth that they've got in their homes. So I think that would be part of my bull case. The other part of my bull case would be is just like if you cut rates, asset inflation goes through. People will feel well here. And I also, my third one that we haven't talked about is I think millennials are coming into their peak earning years. So like lots of earning power for a very large portion of the population. And I think that's good for a lot of consumer. I'm sort of looking at all of this from consumer. Yeah, look, okay. You guys all hit amazing talking points that I think summarize where people are feeling anxiety in the market right now.
45:04It's like, we all know that the AI story has been too good for too long. And like everyone kind of gets itchy and they want a 20 % correction, right? Like it's almost expected that like you should price in a 20 % correction and it's not the S &P 500, all of these top tech stocks. You know, Michael Burry took out a big short position against Palantir. And who knows, by the time this episode comes out, all of this is either, you know, come true or not. So you could ignore it. But like, yeah, Palantir's trading at 100x price or revenue, I think. It's like, yeah, it's a crazy business. Like, that is weird, right?
45:38I'll tell you what the bull case to start is I think Mike really – and Matt and Jason, all you guys have fantastic points. But this idea that interest rates are going to come down, right? Sean, to your point, like student debt and starting to actually make people pay their debt is clearly a part of the economy struggling. And so if you lower interest rates, that flows out into the economy in a bunch of different ways. And that's just one example. Housing is totally screwy right now. We need to get back to 2 % mortgages because that's the only way these asset prices make sense. I think that's where we're headed.
46:12So I think by the end of 2026, we are at 3 % mortgages. And that is just going to be a really compelling case that there's going to be a lot of money moving around the system. And that right now, the economy isn't a recession except for one bubble, right? But like housing has been a recession for two and a half years. Right. I think SAS tech has been a recession for at least 18 months. So anyway, that's that's that's my that's my great point that you're making, Sean, just that the economy is very multifaceted and parts of it are in recession or expansion at all points. Like it's not like one homogeneous thing that all works in the same in the same direction.
46:47And it kind of like I love the point that you made because we came into this episode saying like, hey, what are you? It's the biggest opportunity you have for 2026. And I can kind of kick us off on talking about that because we raised prices a lot around the tariffs. We kind of got pinned where we had to make some decisions. we were setting a bunch of shelves. And I was like, we just had to decide basically at a moment when the actual imposed tariffs were 150%. I was like, well, okay, I have no idea what they're going to be, but they're going to be something and we've got to pick a number. So we picked a number and we just got thumped this year because of it, because we raised prices a lot.
47:28We raised prices like maybe 20 % across our portfolio. And all year I've been like, well, you know, dang, man, you know, I should have known Taco. I should have just, you know, like whatever. But what I've realized as I've thought about it is the point that you're making, which is I go into next year with a whole lot of dry powder where I can actually like lower prices in quite a few places. And I know that that I know the elasticity of all of our categories and I know that's going to lead to growth. So I'm I'm kind of like it's like if you're going to eat, don't nibble like this year. We like didn't nibble.
48:05We took the entire slug of the tariffs and all of the downside. For example, with us, it's fine if you want to tariff particular parts of China, for example, in Drinkware. But you don't just throw a blanket 20 % tariff on everybody around the world. Make it where business owners can source their product from a place where they're not paying 20 % tariffs. So I actually think there's tremendous opportunity to bring down prices and to grow our business next year just because of some of the things we had to do this year. Which is a weird opportunity, but it's a really straightforward one. We know if we can lower prices 20%, our volume will go up 40%, for example.
48:43And so I think there's actually some opportunity for stability there. Yeah. So life is a game of resources, right? You're always going to be the last guy to pull your oil out of the ground, right? Because that's the highest prices. You don't want to be the first guy doing it. Well, my cost structure just went up a lot. And Matt, you made the deflationary point. here's my really simple math for every dollar in manufactured cost for us our prices go up four to five dollars when you include the tariffs and stuff our retail prices right so how much has the united states collected in tariffs so far right i don't know hundred billion i think is what they're forecasting let's just let's just say it's they've got that right let's say it's 250 billion dollars if it's 250 billion dollars what that means is it's led to somewhere around a trillion dollars,$1.2 trillion in or sorry, am I doing that right?
49:38Yeah. It'd be like$1.2 trillion in inflationary retails. No, no, Mike, it led to$1.2 trillion in GDP growth, my friend. Right. But anyway, my point being like, you can imagine if prices got cut by a trillion dollars because you didn't have those tariffs, like, yeah, that's incredibly bullish. Like people are going to buy a lot more units of things. And even if it's not larger GDP dollars, like the number of units moving and the amount of commerce going on behind those units because the ASP is driven down would be much bigger. So I do think the tariff thing, I think the idea that like, there's potentially a lot of juice in just a different tariff structure next year, whatever that looks like is very real.
50:21Okay. So, so hang on. I want to bring it back to Mike, you kicked this off. You said like, I like your point about lowering prices as a lever that you can pull and that that actually that opportunity has you excited for 2026. And I'll just add to that a little rant, Matt, that like a lot of times in e-commerce we're like, how do you raise prices? How do you raise prices? How do you raise prices? The people that have been worth a lot of money in history have all been almost all been people that tried to figure out how do I get people more value for their money? Right. That doesn't always mean lowering prices.
50:51Sometimes that means like with Steve Jobs that it's like your your thousand dollar, you know, phone does 10x as much as it could before. But it's like, that's actually how you make money in business is by figuring out how to drive more value to the customer. And so for 10 years of our company, we've been really focused on that. And we haven't been able to be focused on that really in the last year. And I'm fired up about a year where it's like, hey, I get to drive more value to customers. And I feel good about making money that way. Hey, you know what's important to your business? Understanding it.
51:23That's where Saracen Aletus comes in. That level of precision can only happen if your data is rock solid and in one place where you can actually pull it from. I'm looking at my contribution margin. I'm looking at my sales breakdown, my sales by product type. And it really just starts shining a light into like the black holes of your business. Everything is at my fingertips. Our dashboards pull in from everywhere. I just had to set 2026 financial budgets. Saras Analytics made that data available in four clicks compared to 40 hours. It's like AI for your business knowledge. And if you want to check out Saras Analytics, that is S-A-R-A-S and see how Daily precise data can transform your profitability.
52:02The other thing is we just spent an hour complaining about stuff out of our control. Bubbles, consumer. Yeah, that's kind of why I was bringing it back to what Mike said. That's in his control, right? This is something he can do. And even to put a finer point on it, Matt, what I have been more aware of than ever before is how much I don't control my business. And there's really like a handful of three or four things that I can do that matter. And that's about it. And so it's like, and pricing, like the value I drive to the customers is one of the few things that I completely have agency over. And so like, I'm going to be awesome at that, right?
52:37I'm going to drive that value to customers and I'm going to drive up our unit volume that way. And I feel really good about that as my plan for next year. I want to hear from Jason and Sean. Like Jason, what are you like super excited about the number of control? Yeah, well, by the way, I love what Mike said. It's really about delivering value to customers, delivering value to people. That's what it's all about. It always goes back to that. I get texts from people, oh, check out this company. Why are they not successful? They're not successful because they're just not delivering value. Maybe they have a bad product or whatever it is, but they're just not delivering value for the customer.
53:12At the end of the day, you will succeed if you can deliver value to your customer, and that's why we succeed. Personally, I'm really excited with our business. I'm just really excited because we're making a huge push in a certain area that we haven't before. Like we've built excellent teams in growth. We've built excellent teams in operations. We've built excellent teams in finance. And we've built excellent teams in content at HexCloud, right? We're pursuing excellence. Where we haven't is in product development because we haven't had to. It was pretty easy to just keep launching the next cookware piece.
53:50And they're really good pieces, right? But whereas like a lot of other companies are just dropping products left and right, like drop a new product, we've had a mentality of not doing it unless we do it really, really well. But what we are building now, and I'm so stoked about it, is a world-class product development team at HexCloud. And that is going to be a game changer for our business. You know, we're going to go, we transformed the cookware market and we're going to go disrupt other major adjacencies. And that really excites me.
54:23Yeah. So we talked a lot about what's out of our control, right? Bubbles and interest rates and the tariffs and all that stuff. And that doesn't help a consumer business at all to think about those things. It's like, look, this is just anxiety inducing thoughts about the future. So why is 2026 going to rip for Ridge? We have a bunch of new products that have been killing it all year that I haven't been able to keep in stock. So that alone will be$50 million in revenue boost to my business just by doing inventory purchasing of these new products that I've had to scale up over time. Then I'm very excited about new marketing channels.
54:58I think TikTok Shop, I think there's a way to do it for a brand like Ridge that I've been trying all year. And I think we kind of finally cracked it. I'm excited about more personalized AI ads and running those more places. AI ads on TV, AI ads on Instagram. I think we can just get better one-to-one matching and just feed the ad algorithms with whatever they want. Very excited about that. And I'm excited about channel expansions. So I think wholesale will continue to go up. I think we're going to do a really big corporate gifting program next year. So there's like, inside of my business, there's 12 things I'm incredibly excited about.
55:34And that's why I'm like, look, regardless of what happens pending like uh you know them making wallets illegal or something like that i'm gonna sell a lot of products next year and revenue is going to be up 50 or something so i'm very very excited but where but where we're going in the future and the next episode i'm basically copying everything sean just said uh more products more channels i'm like so stoked and i have manufacturing capacity guys i can't stress that enough i'm like so happy our u.s facility is like almost up and operational I finally have like real capacity. Like right now, if we grow even 10 % from where we are now, I get backlogged on order volume.
56:16So like it's, I'm just so stoked. So to kind of bridge, I want to bridge an idea that we started with. We started with technology and we're kind of ending with what we're excited about for next year. And really, I didn't say this during my section, but like we're kind of becoming more of a holding company. We're going to launch some additional companies. We launched Trevi this year. One of the ways that I think technology is going to play out, and I think all of us in one way or another are showing this with our businesses, is it's going to allow businesses to go way wider than they could before.
56:51Like that it used to be if you wanted to kind of have more of a holding company concept or you wanted to have a lot more product verticals, it was very difficult to pull that off in one company. You had to be a really large organization. And I think it's going to be more obtainable now because the technology will allow you to get wider than you could before. And we've talked about this a lot on this show. But at some point, the easiest way to grow really is that you're engaging in more big markets. You know, Sean, you've shown that. Like just being in phone accessories and phone power, it just raises your revenue potential because there's just a lot of people buying those products as evidenced by Anchor.
57:32And the fact that you're engaging there, Jason, I know what you guys are going to be doing with product and how you're going to be doing more. I'm stoked for Xglad. Yeah, and it's going to be really exciting. But I mean, I think Shark Ninja has shown this. Like the ability to go wide is the new super skill. and technology makes it more possible to go wide than ever before and to manage the complexities that come with that. And so that's probably a macro trend is that gifted operators are just going to be able to be much more multiple and go much wider in terms of the breadth of businesses that they're managing or the breadth of product selection that they're able to offer to the market.
58:11And that's going to lead to bigger businesses, more profitable businesses. completely agree can you sell somebody two of your thing or can you sell them two different things and like so much easier to two different things right yeah in my categories yeah yeah and in some businesses you can sell them two of the same thing right if you are grooms if you sell t-shirts or whatever way easier to be like you like this thing for me buy this thing for me and that has how dude that's how i've doubled my business and like double my business doing nine figures a year right like it's just you have to sell more more stuff it's there's been so much resistance to it for so long or people launch a second product that is like just it doesn't scratch the itch that needs to be scratched so jason's doing it i did it next episode we'll just talk about the actual practical things we're excited about in 2026 we'll talk about ai it's maybe we'll show them off something like that but oh dude i can show off the app i built yeah baby it's cool it's so cool yeah all right cool grinding all right guys that is the pod uh i You know what?
59:13Can I also say like, Sean, I do agree that all of this macro stuff is not helpful in how you like tactically run your business. But I do find it interesting that a lot of people and consumer do think about broadly what is impacting consumers. Well, you have to be aware. I think that that's like I think you have to be aware. You have to be aware. You can't be paralyzed by it. And I think that's the point that you're making, Sean. Like I use the analogy. I've used it on the pod a bunch that it's like your river rafting guide. And it's like, well, you can't be a good river rafting guide if you don't know what the river is doing, but you also can't pretend like you control the river.
59:46And so there's something in between where it's like, hey, I'm aware I'm situation aware, but then I'm going to focus all my attention on the things that I can control. And I think that's the gift. And the problem is you don't want to be in a situation where you're like, oh, all this stuff I don't control sucks so bad. I'm just depressed. I'm not doing anything. And you don't want to be using your your emotional and intellectual capacity towards things you can't control. but if you're not aware of them, I don't think like, for example, with me, I can't make the best pricing decisions unless I'm at least aware of the economy.
1:00:18Like you'd be insane to not be trying to lower prices in where the economy looks like it's at. Right. Yeah. Well, and it makes for a good therapy pod. That's what I'm going to call this one. There's a good therapy pod. So all of those kind of just, you know, sharing our thoughts and, uh, and what's going to happen. And guys, I hope you have an amazing Q4. Let's wrap up. And then 2026, we'll just hit nothing but net all year. Thank you guys for being here. Thank you, operators, fans, listeners, supporters, all of our fantastic software sponsors. Coming at you later. Goodbye.
From the publisher
Sean, Mike, Matt, and Jason share their bull and bear cases for 2026, debating the economic shifts reshaping ecommerce — from a potential AI bubble to the frozen housing market to consumer pullback in a hidden recession.
Discover why this moment might be the most pivotal in history for small businesses while threatening large institutions. The hosts cover the deflationary power of AI, macro trends in consumer, and the specific levers each is pulling to win in an uncertain economy: (1) pricing strategies, (2) new product launches, (3) TikTok Shops, and (4) AI-generated creative.
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