How to Create a Product From Prototype to Launch: Operators Build (E2)

31 Aug 2026 · 46 min · 16 chapters

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In short

Product development from prototype to launch, focusing on product definition (prototype/MVP), market sizing and MOQ planning, and manufacturing/PO decisions (including co-manufacturing, ingredients, packaging, and free-gift add-ons).

Key claims

For launch, prioritize proving product-market fit and customer acquisition over expanding SKUs; variety packs increase manufacturing complexity and cost because each flavor has an MOQ, while most buyers default to variety (reported 50–70% volume). Trevi supply chain issues came from underestimating demand and flavor/quantity mix, leading to “supply chain hell” and extra spend.

Notable examples

Trevi launch strategy (variety pack plus individual flavors; later Prime Day helped); analogy to kids’ Tylenol having limited flavors; NyQuil single-flavor launch.

Guests

No named external guests; discussion among founders/operators (Sean, Curtis, Chris, Mike) plus co-manufacturer and packaging/dev partners referenced.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Product Development Process Overview

0:45 to 5:50

Discussing the core questions in the product development process.

“So with that in mind, we made some really great progress on packaging last week.”

Packaging and Flavor Decisions

5:50 to 11:24

Exploring packaging design and flavor selection as key product decisions.

“Well, we had no idea what to expect on quantities.”

Sourcing and Manufacturing Challenges

11:46 to 14:00

Addressing the complexities of sourcing and manufacturing products.

“And we could talk about putting in extras or whatever.”

Exploring Product Variability and Market Launch Timing

14:00 to 17:00

Discusses the importance of product variety and the timing for launching a new sleep supplement.

“We're going to pick the variety pack all day long.”

Exploring Product Variability and Market Launch Timing

17:01 to 17:30

Discusses the importance of product variety and the timing for launching a new sleep supplement.

“Shoplift is a CRO platform built for e-commerce operators and the only one that Shopify Plus certified.”

Defining Product Market Fit and Customer Acquisition

17:37 to 22:04

Focuses on the importance of establishing product-market fit and customer acquisition strategies for a new sleep product.

“if we're right and we find product market fit, the flavors aren't gonna prevent us from getting there.”

Strategizing Brand Goals and Market Positioning

22:05 to 28:00

Discusses the goals for the brand, market positioning, and potential growth strategies in the sleep supplement market.

“Are you, I thought you were talking about actually like the exit, like what does that look like?”

Market Moments and Opportunities

28:00 to 28:49

Explore current trends and opportunities in various markets including sleep and longevity.

“It's still, people know the brand of AG1.”

The Scale of the Consumables Market

28:50 to 29:53

Learn about the vast scale of the consumables market and its potential.

“Well, one of the things that being in the electrolyte market has taught me is that these markets are just however big you think they are, they're just infinitely bigger.”

Growth Metrics and Valuations

29:54 to 31:06

Understand how to evaluate growth metrics and household valuations for products.

“And I actually just today was looking at some Trevi numbers, and we're like closing in on a million ARR but growing really fast month over month, like really, really fast month over month.”
Show all 16 chapters

Growth Metrics and Valuations

31:07 to 31:27

Understand how to evaluate growth metrics and household valuations for products.

“And instead of asking you to spend weeks writing prompts and uploading help docs and babysitting, they flipped the whole script.”

Product Development and Pricing Strategy

31:39 to 37:46

Discuss strategies for quick product launches, flavor choices, and pricing models.

“We just, good packaging, good product that works.”

Product Development and Pricing Strategy

37:47 to 38:59

Discuss strategies for quick product launches, flavor choices, and pricing models.

“So it's like three bucks a stick, but then a dollar 50 on subscribe and save.”

Finalizing Product Strategy

39:03 to 42:04

Conclude discussions on product counts, packaging, and flavor selections for launch.

“And if we put those in – I don't know how we want to divide those up.”

Deciding on the Launch Flavor

42:04 to 44:06

The team discusses which flavor to launch their product with, emphasizing grape as the top choice.

“The count of sticks that'll be in there.”

Challenges of Crowdfunding and Product Fit

45:10 to 46:16

The speaker shares insights on crowdfunding challenges and the importance of product market fit before further investments.

“The last thing I want to chat with you about is this temptation that I think we all have when launching a new brand, and that is crowdfunding.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Welcome to episode two of Operators Build, where you watch us create a brand from scratch, step-by-step, doing it in public. Today, we are going to cover what goes into making a product from scratch. In other words, your product development process. And to do that, we're going to hit on three big questions. The first is, what are you making? The prototype, the minimum viable product. The second question, number two, is how much should you make? How much market research are you doing to go into this number? what is the actual moq of your co-man the third question is who is going to make it back to that co-man who is the partner are you sourcing your own ingredients are they doing everything for you what's the product design all of this is part of product development and that is what we want to cover today and to do that we are going to go back in time so you can see the real meetings between all of us founders we recorded the actual work so you can watch it and hopefully learn from it I think the main focus of this conversation needs to be driving towards a PO.

1:02So Sean, to kind of just catch you up to speed, I think that when we were doing the Trevi stuff, and I know you're working on something similar right now, I actually was thinking about this just last week because it was kind of like the one-year anniversary of us going out and doing flavor development on it. and for us we wanted to move really fast and we started really pushing on a po around this probably around end of month maybe a little bit earlier and uh we got it to market like the last day of november so for our goal of trying to be around black friday like we've got to be we got to be basically on it right now unless they're going to execute quite a bit quicker than than we experienced.

1:46So with that in mind, we made some really great progress on packaging last week. And I think we all have gotten very excited about this idea of the kind of more mascot driven and potentially more of the kind of family, you know, including kids angle of this thing. So, Sean, if you want to talk about that, we can kind of recap that. But then if we're going to do that, we've looped in Chris with Curtis on text. And Curtis, I think you provided some die lines or maybe at the very least some packaging kind of dimensions. And Chris is working on that. It's huge that we have Chris because I will say like this part of the process is actually one of the most time consuming is just getting the packaging synced up.

2:34You can lose so much time here. But what we need to do, I think, is start to make some real like product decisions like, OK, how many what's the count? How many flavors? Like, when are we going to put in this PO? Who owns that process? How do we make sure that we get all the packaging on time? Is there a free gift? Where's the free gift coming from? Who's serving? You know, like that was something that I think you brought up, Sean, which I think is very much the right way to go, this kind of free gift. And once we had kind of the mascot, it's like, oh, wow, there's a lot of kind of cool free gifts that you could put in here.

3:06It could be a, you know, like a sleep mask. It can be nose strips. Uh, if this is really going to happen, it's July 14th, this PO needs to go in in the next 14 days. So we've got, uh, and, and all of us have other things going on. So I think that's kind of the focus of this conversation is how do we drive towards putting something in? Let's just recap. We're going through this. Yeah. I know you just recapped, but like I, what's the actual product we're going through this right now. And it's like, look, every flavor you add, you know, increases cost by 50%, right? So do we want to do one flavor in, I'll tell you how, look, because Mike, I would love to hear your thoughts on this.

3:46This is, this would help me, you know, in more ways than one. Trevi is competing with, you know, all of the best Gatorades out there, right? So like it has to come out in berry. And I think you launched with three flavors, right? A lemonade, a berry, and something else. we launched with um basically five variations we had a variety pack that had four flavors and then we individually bought the four flavors in the variety pack you only sold them as 30 packs we did 28 packs and then um we also did a couple of them in 10 packs and if i could go back and do it all over again, I think where I would start is just one variety pack on Trevi, and then I would branch out.

4:32So what we see as behavior is people don't know the flavor they're going to like, obviously. I mean, this is the hardest part about consumables. So, they're very drawn to the idea of a variety pack because it's like, okay, I get kind of four whacks at the pinata. I can find one that I like. But then, the behavior seems to be A portion of those people will continue on with the variety pack and then they'll start to split off like, oh, I really liked berry lemonade. So I'm just going to buy berry lemonade. So I do think there's a place for individual flavors. Like you're saying, Sean, the investment just scales.

5:10And I will say this. We really, really, really got our supply chain wrong right out of the gate on Trevi. fortunately and and we probably i don't know we probably set another an extra couple hundred thousand dollars on fire just kind of right sizing that um and we're almost kind of done with the right sizing of that i mean prime day helped a lot we moved a lot of units on prime day but um so the easiest way to get into supply chain hell is is to get seven variations and and to be wrong on quantities and distributions yeah can you explain what actually went wrong on the supply chain? Was it just overordering?

5:50We were just wrong. Well, we had no idea what to expect on quantities. This episode is brought to you by Sorol. You're practically renting attention on meta ads and rent only goes one direction, up. Influencer marketing done as one-off campaigns is just another form of rent. The fix is a system. Seed products at scale, convert the winners into affiliates, put your best performers on long-term retainers. That's what Saral is built for, finding perfect fit creators with their AI, managing personalized outreach at scale, built-in product shipping, one-click payouts, and tracking posts and ROI of all your campaigns so that your team can run influencer marketing like a machine.

6:35We're using them for the new brand that Operators is launching. Check it out at getsaral.com. That's G-E-T-S-A-R-A-L.com. in our case we were trying we were going to do the simple modern angle so we didn't know like how many people are going to gravitate over and the adoption was slower that kind of the way that it worked for us is like the scaling process was slower at first and then quicker later on than we expected but then also we didn't really have any feel for how often people would pick variety packs versus single flavors and what we have found is if somebody just kind of comes into your product at least in electrolytes, and I think this could be true in sleep also, and they know nothing, then they are going to, you're going to have a small portion of people that are just like, I like grape.

7:24And if you have a grape, I'm going to buy grape. But I mean, when we say small portion, I'm saying like 1 % of people. Then the vast majority of people, everything being equal, are just going to say, I'll buy the variety pack. And because that behavior is so strong, like when we're not doing anything with price where it's more attractive to go to other single flavors or whatever i think we we fluctuate between 50 and 70 percent of our volume just goes to the variety pack wow yeah it's it's pretty big so uh in in our case the safest thing to do is to first buy a pack that has two or three or four flavors whatever we decide however many we think are strong and then uh to make our and our follow-on buys by your very best flavor or like and you're probably experiencing this sean so if you think about it from a manufacturing perspective to the problem with going to a variety pack is that you'll have an moq so just for everybody listening to to kind of make this tangible let's say i have four flavors i have cherry i have grape I have orange, I have lemon, lime, whatever.

8:34Each of those flavors has an MOQ. Let's say that that MOQ is whatever, a quarter of a million sticks. So if I want to buy a variety pack, I now have to commit to a million sticks of production in order to be able to do that. Whereas if I was just going to do one flavor, I only have to commit to a quarter of a million sticks. This is kind of what you were saying, Sean, this is why it scales up. Now, the other side of that that's kind of nice is, well, once you've committed to doing a variety pack, it's easy to do really small quantities of individual flavors. So, and that's the way I would do it.

9:12So it's like, well, it's like if I'm already committed to a quarter of a million lemon limes, it's easy for me to break off 20 ,000 of those sticks or 30 ,000 of those sticks and bring to market. Now, the complexity there is you do that's more packaging to work through and every additional piece of packaging we're doing could slow us down and probably slows down the process um the other is so anyway all that to say i would i would say we start with how many strong flavors do we have and if we buy nothing else we buy a skew that's a variety pack of the strong flavors or if we've got one flavor that we're like, this is really the best.

9:53It could be that you just go to market with just that one flavor. Listen, guys, what is our brand distinctive? You have to kind of be able to say, what is our brand distinctive? Like, what is it we're rallying behind? And for Trevi, it's like, we are the best tasting electrolyte, the end. That's it. That's like, that's the entire story. So like, we need to be able to do the same thing with Winx. Just like, what is the thing? What is the problem that we are solving? And then it's really easy to get drawn into trying to solve like four problems. But that actually makes ineffective brands. Just like, you know, like it should be like an elevator pitch.

10:27Like, why do you drink Trevi? Or here's why I love Trevi. It tastes the best. The end. You know, here's why I take winks. It knocks me out. It's not like, oh, it knocks me out and it tastes good. It's like, no, it's like it helps me sleep. You know, I get the best sleep ever or whatever. And then you optimize around whatever that brand promises.

10:47Okay, before we go any further, Let's talk about what it takes to turn all of that product work into a purchase order. Yes, yes, yes. We are now talking about sourcing and manufacturing. And here are the questions I think you should be listening for. How much do you commit to before you have sold a single unit? We're talking mass production of something. You probably want to know what you're committing to. Who else is already selling this? So how does Winx even stack up? This is the competitive analysis part of the process. And then who exactly are you making this for? your target market, your target audience, the ideal customer persona.

11:23What changes once real orders and real feedback start rolling in? Should we refine the product? How do we learn from that feedback? That's coming up right now. We have to make this decision very fast. I would like to conserve capital and just come out the gate with one great flavor. I wouldn't do variety packs and I would just hit on the fact that this thing makes you sleep. I would pick the best flavor we got. And we could talk about putting in extras or whatever. It's just like if we want to take capital and put it into that, right? That's really probably a second or third order thing. It's like, can we just get this thing in the market and try to sell it for the sticks?

12:07And then we can obviously improve it, right? But I'm incredibly conservative when it comes to that stuff. Curtis, you're doing the dev. Do you think we should do the variety pack? Mike's kind of saying variety pack, but I don't know how to make a call here. I actually, I think you might be right, Sean. I think if we're going to aim at kids, I think you literally just go out there and you say we pick a cherry or a grape or whatever is the most coded to what you would see in kids' products. But this is where it's like, who are we aiming at? Because we started to feel like last week that aiming at kids, parents that have kids that are having trouble sleeping or families or whatever, is the easiest market to target here.

12:45And if that's the case, I think you're right, Sean. It's like we don't, you know, Tylenol doesn't have like 10 flavors of children's Tylenol. They have like two or something, you know? Yeah. I mean, being devil's advocate and not disagreeing with what you said, Sean, obviously there's capital costs associated with that. I reach out to our co-man to see what we can get our MOQs down to and what that would look like for, you know, multiple SKUs. Here's the thing. You said it like a gut health or, you know, an AG1 as an example. Like it's a one fit, like all in one solution. And people are solving a pain point that they don't give a shit about flavor.

13:24We're looking at habit forming every single day. Also, are we family focused or kid focused? Like the way I look at it is, is that we have, I would say three in the front running for like flavor profile, which is lemonade, great and peach. like far, like destroyed the other ones that I, that we had mixed berry, raspberry and, and a lemon lime. And my wife is like, lemonade is amazing. My daughter's like, I love peach. I'm a great guy. And so it's like, for me, a family of four, it's like, man, I would be like, we're going to pick this. We're going to pick the variety pack all day long. Cause I don't want to have like three different pouches.

14:07And also if we want to have encourage, I'm curious about behavior. If we want to encourage, this is a daily routine. Are people going to get tired of like, if it's AG1 or a gut health, you kind of just know that it tastes like and you just got to drink it. And you know, you're going to feel healthy. If we're focused on a sleep solution, it's not like people are taking NyQuil every single day. Well, some people in the world probably take it every day. Um, but you know, if we want habit forming, do people want like a, after 20 days, I want to switch it up after a hot night. I want a little lemonade flavor versus a great flavor.

14:42Like, do they want to switch it up so that we can encourage them to, to really have that adoption every single day, you know? And so I get torn because removing the capital costs, which obviously is a big decision. What's going to encourage families? Like if we're the, let's say we call it, we're the only natural, we're the only natural family focused sleep supplement in the world? I don't know. Like we're, we're the best family focused sleep supplement. Um, you know, what does that look like? You know, from a flavor profile, do you like, I almost on one side, we're not going either, even though we're a hundred percent organic, a hundred percent natural, you know, it's extremely health oriented, you know, it's science backed based on the ingredients, you know, we're not, we're also being friendly and, and accessible with our marketing and our style and who we're targeting to.

15:36We're not targeting to the optimizer. We're not targeting to just like that, that health oriented person. We're actually targeting families that are struggling with a major problem. And so I'm wondering if the variety caters to everybody in the household a little bit more. I don't know. Yeah, of course. I definitely hear you. i think variety is a better product but does it make for a better launch right so like you know nyquil comes in one flavor which is you know dark goop uh yeah and this is where like look i want to put in those strips i want to put in the little stuffy like you guys sent those things over i'm like adorable let's go those things made to be awesome yeah i i want to make the little cup i want to make like all this stuff but i'm like actually that's probably year two right like Like, let's, like, the timeline we're working on of, like, right now, if we go incredibly fast, we get them here November, or sorry, December 1st.

16:33We have to start marketing this thing, you know, December 25th so that we can hit, you know, new year, new me, get banned, all the challenges we're going to have to face. And I would just rather do that with a smaller buy off the rip. One flavor, we put it on there that it's, you know, I think you guys said, like, grizzzy, zz grape or whatever, like, and just nail it. I think a very tight launch so we can make sure we have something and then tweak it going forward. Shoplift is a CRO platform built for e-commerce operators and the only one that Shopify Plus certified. We're using them for the new brand the operators ourselves are launching.

17:11They've built a free CRO resource hub at shoplift.ai slash operators. Real conversion benchmarks by category, the seasonal patterns most tools hide, and practical CRO. for how you actually run your store. Two ways in, get your free benchmarks or start a free trial at Shoplift. Go to shoplift.ai slash operators. One thing to encourage you guys, if we're right and we find product market fit, the flavors aren't gonna prevent us from getting there. Like we can't expand outward into it. Ultimately, does the product work? And the thing about choosing something like grape is that if you're going to go after families, like the kid has to drink it.

17:58And my kids, I don't know if they're like your kids, but like when you're trying to give them something, they're like, what's the flavor? You know, before they'll even put it in their mouth, they're like, what is this? You know, and so being able to pick something like grape or lemonade that's really obvious and accessible to them, I think is fine. I think you're right, Curtis. Like if you're going to drink this every night, you're eventually going to want variety. but also to make the initial first purchase. Like really one of the things that has been helpful to me over the years is to learn there might be 10 questions I have to answer but I don't have to answer them all at once.

18:36The thing we need to solve for right now is like what do we need to answer in the next, you know, before February 1st? And I think the number one thing we need to answer is do we have product market fit with this formula? when it comes to helping people sleep? And can we find an effective way to cost affordably acquire new customers? And if the answer to both those is yes, all the other stuff we're going to be able to work out. The distribution questions, the flavor questions, the scaling questions. And if the answer to those is no, then we're done, you know? So we need to put all our kind of wood behind those two arrows of like, does the formula really work can cause people to rebuy?

19:21Can we cost affordably acquire new customers? And that's why, Sean, I actually will defer to your opinion here. You're running marketing. So I want to make sure that you have the material you feel like you need to go and tell us, hey, I can do this or I can't, because that's the most important question by far. And this is also why I think the positioning of like the positioning matters a lot because it really impacts who we're marketing to and how we're marketing it. A conversation that's worth having right now. I am a big first principles thinker and I'm a big, you start with what's the end goal and you work backwards from that.

20:00And we haven't really talked about, hey, what is the goal of this brand? Is the goal of this brand that we try and hit maximum velocity in 12 months and sell the thing? Is the goal that we turn this into a cashflow monster? Is it the goal that we grow to the point that we can hire a management team and we can be passive owners? Because I do think that that will impact the way that we approach some of these questions. I mean, you guys have any thoughts on that? We're never going to sell the flavor, okay? Because when you're selling flavors, I brought this up, I'm like, okay, Pepsi wins. Coca-Cola wins.

20:34It's like Gatorade's going to win. They're going to put sugar in their thing and they're going to have a better tasting product, right? because Mike you're selling flavor but you're also selling hydration and all these other things right it's the best tasting hydration thing and that's your angle to win it's not the only angle to win what we're going to sell is put your kids to sleep sleep better I'm going to post about my 100 % sleep score because I use this product right the flavor just needs to be good like it's on the list of value props we're going to sell it's like okay what problem does this solve get deeper better sleep non-habit forming yeah well and yeah to expound on that point sean if what you're trying to sell i mean it is interesting like if you're selling hate your kids will sleep and so you will actually sleep that's an actually an interesting value prop of like as much as you taking it so you'll sleep you know the number one thing that wrecks your sleep if you have young kids it's your kids waking you up in the middle of the night but um to your point sean if you want non-habit forming you almost don't want it to taste awesome.

21:35Like we have a problem with Trevi. I mean, I'm gonna use problem loosely, but we'll have people send us notes. Like how many of these can my kids drink a day? Because they were just constantly like, I want more, I want more, I want more. So it's like, you don't necessarily want to optimize this thing where kids are like, I want to drink seven weeks, you know, today. So I think you're right. I think, I think it's like really clear value proposition is like, this puts your kids to sleep, you know, this will put you or your kids to sleep in a story. And then that it tastes good enough that nobody's going to have taste be a blocker.

22:08But Mike, going back to your original question, like, are you talking about, you know, when you talk about like goals and reverse engineering, what we want to try to achieve, like, are you talking about actually the impact that we're having and how we go to market? Are you, I thought you were talking about actually like the exit, like what does that look like? We were just talking about this other business kind of anonymously and they're looking at selling or whatever. And I think the way that you go about scaling this could be different depending upon what our outcome was. If we were like, hey, let's launch this thing in Q4, let's scale it for a year and then sell this thing for 50 or a hundred million dollars.

22:43I think that's one kind of playbook. I think if the playbook is, hey, we're trying to turn this into a cashflow monster or eventually go really, really big with this, it's a little bit of a different playbook. I don't think it impacts the way we do this initial order, but it will impact some things. And Sean, I totally agree. I mean, one of the reasons why I'm excited about doing this is that I think you're exactly right. You can do exactly what that other brand was doing in this vertical. And, um, and I think that what that shows is that this is clearly a nine figure opportunity. Yeah, dude. And okay.

23:15So to tie the two things together, we have to figure out what the we're ordering. I'm team. we should do the smallest minimum order possible make sure it works and then improve on it right like so i'm i'm in favor of let's have awesome packaging awesome photography possible one flavor no matter what we do now we're going to change it like that's the reality of every product you ever launch like we can make all of these decisions in a vacuum we want to put out in the world and we're gonna be like never mind we have to do this thing right so i think curtis is probably right where we will need more flavors and it'll be important but i'm like we haven't proven that yet Like what we should do is just get it, get it out there, get the response.

23:52And it's like, if we can get that done for 75 grand and like, and we can spend 200 grand on marketing, we'll have some sick metrics to understand where this thing can go. I'm getting back into the weeds. And one of the things I'm probably the rustiest on is email. I'm super excited to be using OmniSend. They're using them on Winx. We're AI pilled. We are using it to do everything. I'm running most of our email program from Claude and Codex using the MCP. And it's awesome. We also have email, SMS, and pop-ups all in one place. We have all of our flows, welcome series. It's all talking to each other.

24:23I love the platform. The analytics are really good. I highly recommend it, especially if you're in the position that Wings is in. New brand starting out. But if you're on a different platform and you're paying too much and you want to switch, they will do the migration completely for you. No lost data, no lost list. It takes only five days start to finish. And they are giving our listeners 30 % off the first three months. go to omnisend.com slash nine operators to try it out for yourself. If I wasn't, if I had not launched Trevi inside a Simple Modern, like let's say I was positioned just like I had to make every dollar count, I would absolutely have just ordered our berry lemonade flavor and gone all in on that.

25:03Because I know that it's like if people can choose berry lemonade or they can choose the variety pack, they'll choose variety pack. But like I just would have gone single skew if i was trying to be capital efficient for sure no matter what we do right now we're gonna have to change it right like once we get it out there into the world and get real customer feedback response whatever we're gonna have to tweak it anyway so i've just i'm team smallest capital shot most money for marketing so we can figure this stuff out yeah so that's the product side to tie it to what uh what the goal of the company is look if i think we can get But it took the other brand.

25:41It's like, you know, I think the first year, actually, so this actually would be the second year of business, but the first year they did zero dollars. It was like they were just bumbling around at like 50K a month or whatever. And then they're like, OK, we figured something out. Then they went into it. And then, you know, the second year of operation, they went from 50 grand a month to five million dollars a month. I think we could totally do that. And I can totally get us an offer for, if we're putting a bag with gross numbers, 10x revenue, like 10x runway or whatever. And I think we take it.

26:14Unlike the other brand, if anyone offers that, we're taking it. Well, and here's one of the reasons why I was talking actually to a guy who owns a very valuable business. He was kind of thinking through this question earlier this week. It's a friend of ours. He's trying to figure out what to do. And one of the things I was explaining to him is if you really think you're going to sell a business, his question was kind of like, do I expand? Do I hire sales reps and expand into convenience and international and all this stuff? And I was saying, well, it depends on are you trying to cash flow this thing or are you trying to sell it?

26:44Because if you're trying to sell it, you actually want to leave some cards on the table that aren't flipped over. Because an acquirer is going to see that and they're going to say, oh, I can do X and Y. In some ways, flavor is the same thing. You know, that like what you want is you want to kind of intentionally create a picture for an acquirer of like, oh, there's all this stuff that we haven't done because we're so busy running these other businesses and, you know, whatever else. And so I'm with you, Sean. Like if we can do that. I love the idea of creating an unoptimized business because I actually think we can use that to create a bigger multiple on exit.

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27:22100 % all you're doing is you're just showcasing that you've only addressed a certain part of the market like that's it right so if your tam is this big and you've only gone after a sliver whether it's flavor profile verticals of which you sell distribution you name it then you're going to just give the opportunity where anybody's going to look at that and realize that they can instantly expand in in you know multiple different verticals or or different channels um i think also like Like right now, although sleep and magnesium, you know, there's a lot of brands and products that have this as a skew.

27:55No one's really built a brand around it. Even AG1. Like, okay, great. They're coming out with AZ1 or whatever it's called. It's still, people know the brand of AG1. Tasting, morning health routine. And I don't know what their adoption is going to be like. We're launching a family-friendly brand in the sleep space. And sleep's having a moment right now. Longevity's having a moment right now. CPG's having a moment right now. Like there's a lot of tailwinds that we have right now that I think it's like, you know, let's, let's optimize this, scale this and sell it. Um, because we're all got busy lives, families, other businesses, you name it.

28:29That if we, if we can show and demonstrate that we can go from, um, you know, seed to sale, like in, in a, in a, whatever, less than a 24 month window. Why not? Like, that's just a, uh, that's going to showcase, you know, it's the world. And, and, you know, all these creators out there, they can do the same if they want. Like, I love the story storyline and the education component as much as I love the actual opportunity itself. Well, one of the things that being in the electrolyte market has taught me is that these markets are just however big you think they are, they're just infinitely bigger.

29:02I mean, it's just like consumables. So much stuff gets consumed every day. I'm in the insulated drinkware market, and we might see 500 million units sold every year in the United States, which it's like, that's a lot. Let me give this answer in the U.S. each year. So how many bottles do you think, if there's 500 million reusable insulated drinkware bottles, how many single-use plastic bottles do you think get sold in the U.S. every year? Oh, 4 billion? No, more. 10 billion? Yeah. 50 billion. So it just like, it gives you a feel for like, once you get into consumable, the numbers literally just go up like 1 ,000x.

29:54And I actually just today was looking at some Trevi numbers, and we're like closing in on a million ARR but growing really fast month over month, like really, really fast month over month. The gap between here and two or three million ARR is not very far. And I was looking at our numbers and it's like we've got probably about 20 ,000 people, households that are kind of on our thing. And so like you just kind of start doing some math and it's like to get to 100 million valuation, you probably need 50 to 100 ,000 households that like this. And that is like not that many people. so it's like the other thing that's encouraging here is honestly guys it doesn't matter what all he's doing it doesn't matter what ag1's doing all we have to do is find 0.5 percent of households that like what we're doing that's it 100 million dollars most ai tools right now are all promise and no delivery you know exactly what i am talking about super fancy launch videos this is why i'm loving what rich panel is doing they have ai and support smashed together, made it practical, made it useful, made it valuable to brands today, not on some future promise.

31:07And instead of asking you to spend weeks writing prompts and uploading help docs and babysitting, they flipped the whole script. Their AI builds your support team for you and everything it needs. I've watched it. It works. It's freaking amazing. RichPanel even guarantees 50 % of your support volume will be automated by AI within 30 days or your money back. I call that a no-brainer offer. If you are interested, go to richpanel.com slash demo, not for some generic demo, but to actually book a call and watch them build your actual support team. Totally. So look, scrappy, quick launch. We just, good packaging, good product that works.

31:45Simple skew, one skew. Let's just get it out there in the market. That's all we need to get our first million dollar ARR. I think I can deliver that. If I'm going to pick a flavor profile, it's going to be great. I mean, think about it. You don't want, I don't think it's great. I think there's a negative association with medicine around cherry, but what's the second flavor that most, most have, like it's usually a grape. I think grapes pretty universal and I think it's, it's likable. I think the grape really fits with the color profiles we've looked at on packaging. We were already looking around purple and our, our little monster.

32:17And so association of lavender, sleep, like purple is closer to like a bunch of things. Like imagine. Yeah. I just don't think it would be the same having a little yellow guy. Oh, for sure, dude. Here's what we're talking about. PO needs to go in in two weeks. We're going to do single flavor. What we need to do, what are the MOQs here we're looking at, Curtis? How many sticks do they need to make? I want to say it was low. It was 5 ,000. I got to bring it up. And I just emailed this yesterday, actually, to get final numbers if we had one versus three and a variety pack. So I'll get all that. Okay.

32:52But I mean, how much is it per stick? What's our cost per stick? hang on one second. I want to give you accurate numbers. So yeah, absolutely. Well, that's where I'm like, I think we just, we plot this thing all the way out. Cause Sean, like you said, we'll do somehow a capital contribution here, but we can go ahead and budget this thing out right now. I mean, let me ask this question while Curtis is pulling this up. Sean, you have any opinions about bag stick count? Cause I'm really curious how you're going to market this. Like the thing that that other brand we were talking about was doing. And is that they got their contribution profit per sale up to like$40 or$50.

33:33And that obviously makes a big difference. So we need to kind of pick up a course here. If we're trying to get contribution profit to equal acquisition cost, I think you've got to figure your acquisition cost is going to be$50 or$60. So it kind of gives you some ideas of price points and margins and and we need to kind of work backwards from how we're going to do that or you can do what we've done on the trevi side and just say like we're not trying to be first order profitable because we feel confident that people are going to like this and come back but we need to kind of build out the offer based on how you're how we think we're going to market this yeah so i want it to be a premium stick so curse will get us the cost per stick but like i want to go in the market i think element might be the most expensive and it's like two bucks a stick or something like 250 yeah it's and depending on how many you buy it can be more than that i mean i i don't know curtis you got a number on this yeah you know what we just based on 30 servings not on sticks so a 30 serving pack uh like bag minimum order 5 ,000 uh 5 ,000 bags for a 30 uh for a 30 serving and it was 15 and 59 cents so they're asking for 50 cents basically is this are you is this like a scoop like powder like loose powder or is these this is individual sticks no that was a loose powder this is loose powder because when we originally went and started working with this yeah and the sticks add some costs there so um maybe five more cents so maybe somewhere between 50 and 55 cents depending on if it was loose or sticked i'd stick it for sure because you know like this is like hey take it with you when you're traveling or whatever i mean like people's sleep gets disrupted a lot of times when they're on the move so um kind of to to your point sean like uh i i don't know what we want to do on our uh like if you just figure like you want to be at 5x that gosh that would be a lot per stick well 50 cents a stick is all is a lot of money so like we should just talk to the other thing is we should make sure this come in can do sticks you need special machines to do sticks they can get all stuff going yeah so let's look at the quote on that and maybe it's like smaller servings or something like i would really like to get this to like 30 cents if possible and also 5 000 is a really small quantity so like that's right that's them doing us a big a big favor if we have to launch at 50 cents it's totally fine we can improve that margin over time um but yeah like you know i could it could be a three dollar stick we could sell we could sell uh 30 day servings for 99 bucks right and then subscribe and save for 50 bucks and that could that could work we'll try that say that say those numbers one more time sean oh i i am the least price sensitive okay because we're because because it's a health product i think we can tackle a very high aov so i'm totally fine going at uh three dollars a stick so a 30 count for 99 bucks basically right yeah i think it all depends on how frequently you're trying to get people to use this if you're trying to get people to use this as a daily product.

36:50I mean, I think that the electrolytes industry is kind of showing this, that it's like somewhere between$1 and$2 is great. If it's more like this kind of infrequently, like, hey, use this when you need it. I like you said, Sean, I think then you can be at three, four, you know, maybe even more per stick. And this is where like the quantities and like, what is a subscribe and save? Am I buying 30 of these packs? Because, I mean, if you did a 14 count and it's$3.50 a stick, that'd be right at$50, which is kind of like what you were talking about. But that's, it's pretty, it's pretty steep. But it's like, also, if it works and I'm not trying to take it every night, it's like, yeah, I'll pay$3.50 for my kid to go to sleep or for me to go to sleep when I'm having trouble.

37:37Oh, dude, yeah. And like, that's the ad. It's like, how much would you pay for, you know, to end those sleepless nights? It's like any amount of money. So I want to, at the rip, I'd probably be incredibly expensive, but then a really aggressive subscribe and save offer. So it's like three bucks a stick, but then a dollar 50 on subscribe and save. So if it's 14 packs or whatever, I mean, it probably would be 50 bucks if you buy it, 29 bucks if you subscribe. And we would try to get people into 30 packs, which would be a hundred bucks, but 50 bucks if you subscribe. So I was all in on AI at Jones Road, but it's really hard to get large teams of people to change.

38:15But on Winx, I don't have teams because we're trying to keep OPEX as lean as possible. So we're going all in on AI and Runneth is a big part of that. Runneth and Motion are a sponsor of the show and we've been partnering closely with them to help run Winx day to day. It is the AI brain for our whole team. We are shipping as much creative as we can, as many angles as we can. And we have it plugged in to all of our accounts, our email account, Shopify, Northbeam, all of our analytics. So it's got the whole thing. It is our AI creative strategist and much more than that. It's really our AI coworker.

38:48If we use it, HexCloud uses it, Jones Road uses it. It is the best AI brain for e-com brands on the planet. If you don't use things like this, I seriously think you're going to fall behind. I highly recommend it. So go to runnith.com and book a strategy session. Just mention the operator sent you and you'll get$1 ,000 in credits when you sign up. okay so real back of the envelope math um if i said a hundred thousand dollars for an initial inventory purchase is that too high or too low sean oh well i think i think we're budgeting like 75 grand okay so if we did 75 grand and let's say that we can talk them from the the number Let's say we can get it down to$0.45 a stick pack because we're buying a little bit more volume.

39:37That would be – I mean that's a lot. It looks like that's 160 ,000 packs. So 166 ,000 packs. And if we put those in – I don't know how we want to divide those up. one thing we're saying here is that like what we have found is the gusseted bag actually is a lot of the cost um so the bigger your stick counts like the the smaller your your gusseted bag per per unit um if you if you made these 28 counts you got like 5 000 5 500 yeah yeah you got right at 6 000 59 50 so 6 000 and and that probably gives you enough to work with right sean so 6 000 We put in 75K, we buy 6 ,028 counts, and we try and prove the concept.

40:33And you do 28 versus 30? Yeah. You would do 28? I'm indifferent. Okay. I'm really indifferent about count. I think Sean's point of whatever we do, you need to be able to sell$50 or$60 order values just to make all the numbers work. Yeah. Really, the next step is we need to get on the phone with the co-man and more or less say, we're going to buy 75 grand. We want to buy about whatever. This is 160, 170 ,000 sticks with that. And we need to really kind of talk with you and understand the cost ramifications of different types of packaging. And I think that ideally the way this works is we really quickly – Curtis, we turn that around really quickly so that then we can get Chris to be starting to put this stuff on whatever packaging we decide on.

41:28and that maybe by next Monday, we've got some finalized packaging from Chris to look at and we kind of have all the numbers and we can press go on getting the PON next week. Beautiful. All right, let's do it. We talked for about an hour. I think we covered a lot of cool stuff. The takeaway is we just need to nail down by the end of the month, the order. Yeah. And really the only thing I think we need to nail down at this point is box or bag and count. Yes. The count of sticks that'll be in there. Oh, and also I guess we need to confirm they can make sticks. So if we can, we can via text, nail that down over the next two or three days.

42:14Curtis, your point on getting all the information we need to nail that down. And then I'll make sure that Chris has stuff ready for us next Monday and then we'll be in great shape. Yeah, if you can follow up with Chris around the, if you're going to talk to him anyways, around the one flavor strategy. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. Because I sent him a bunch of things. Hopefully I convinced you guys. What's that? I agree with grape. I agree with grape one flavor. Hopefully I convinced you. I haven't tried it, but the purple is sleep color. Well, that's the thing. Well, I agree. Lavender and everything else.

42:48Like I say, if you're going to launch with one, I think that's the one that you launch with. I actually do like the mixture if we were if we were going to expand flavors I actually kind of like the the um like grape peach and lemonade kind of feel like it's like a really good like variety uh nothing to one on the citrus side one on you know more of the fruit side and one you know obviously grape um but yeah one one if I was to do one I would I would just do grape for multiple reasons and i like it i mean i mean if you just search it's an easy way to to like launch with and we can expand quickly knowing that we have these you know on the back burner if we want to yeah if you just search children's tylenol for example like they have a cherry and they have a grape but it's clear on amazon that grape crushes cherry like you know i don't know five to one in sales or something.

43:46And so, uh, I think I'm telling you, I think if you're going to do one flavor, it has to be great. I think we're making the right decision. If you got kids, grape, purple Gatorade, first one to go purple freezy. Usually the first one to go like it's absolutely yeah. Great. Grape is the right choice. I, I feel really confident in the decisions that we made. All right. Thank you, Mike. Thank you, Curtis. You guys are killers. Talk to you later. Thanks guys. You have been listening to us talk for years about building nine-figure durable goods brands. Hexclad, Ridge, Simple Modern, Pila. When we sat down to build Winks, there was never a question it had to be a subscription brand.

44:24And being the veterans we are, we could work with anyone, but we decided to work with Skiyo to build Winks. Working with the team over at Skiyo has been awesome. We get to see all of the stuff that the fastest growing CPG brands are actually doing to acquire more subscribers and keep them longer. My favorite example of this has been incentivizing new customers to go from a monthly subscription to a quarterly subscription right after their first purchase, but before they get their first order. The team at Skio has been sharing insights on how much in-portal flexibility to give subscribers, when to change frequency, when to offer product swaps, when to do gifting, what rewards should look like, what is cancel flow optimization.

45:00The list is freaking endless and they have shared it all. They have been incredible to work with. They are bringing so much value to this partnership. It almost feels a little unfair. If you run a subscription brand, you should be talking with the team over at Skio. They know their stuff. The last thing I want to chat with you about is this temptation that I think we all have when launching a new brand, and that is crowdfunding. This is the Kickstarters and the Indiegogos of the world. I actually did this with Lomi, one of the brands I've co-founded. And when we did this, we actually laid out a full marketing plan.

45:31This is not as easy as you think it is. We knew exactly how much money we wanted to spend before the crowdfund campaign even started, and it wasn't a small amount. This is not for the faint of heart. And then finally, you'll notice that we haven't paid a lot of attention to patents or intellectual property at this point. Honestly, none of it is important if we can't nail the thing that we've already talked about, which is our product market fit. We think customers will love the product, but before we invest all these other things, I think we need to prove it. That is why we are documenting this entire process in public, we want you to see us struggle with all of the same things that every founder does.

46:06If you liked this episode and you're enjoying watching us build, please like, follow, subscribe, drop any comments, any questions you have. You know what to do. We will actually answer them and we will take them into the next episode if it makes sense for us.

From the publisher

What does a real product development process look like when 9-figure operators are betting their own money? 

Mike Beckham (CEO, Simple Modern), Sean Frank (CEO, Ridge), and Curtis Christopherson (Chief Growth Officer, Ammortal) sit down mid-build on Winks, a family sleep supplement, to make product decisions. Go behind the scenes on flavor count, purchase order size, pricing, sourcing, and the supply chain mistake from Trevi that cost hundreds of thousands to fix. 

This is an actual founder meeting. Recorded, unedited, and real money at stake. 

Mike breaks down the MOQ math behind every multi-SKU decision. Sean argues for the smallest possible capital bet. Curtis brings the manufacturer’s-eye view. It ends with one flavor, $75K inventory budget, and a purchase order due in two weeks. 

If you’re figuring out how to launch a new product from scratch, this episode was made for you. 

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https://9ops.co/richpanel 

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https://9ops.co/motion-runneth 

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