Does Burnham have a foot in mouth problem?

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1:58Ed Balls: Coming up on Political Currency. The problem is it's just a mess.

2:02George Osborne: It's a mess in the Western alliance.

2:03Ed Balls: To leave the Ukrainian people exposed in this way,

2:07George Osborne: I mean, it's actually, it's so shocking. He's kind of cheeky, you know, cheeky chap on TikTok, guy from the north. I thought was just beginning to fray in the last week.

2:17Ed Balls: hope does not make me warmer maybe i need to have the election early

2:26Ed Balls: so we are remote today and uh the reason is you can see from that i guess rather yellow sandstone a bit ornate looks to me i mean that feels like oxford to me under dreaming spires remember that song no it was it was it was it was brave to try and sing

2:49George Osborne: yes i'm at um i'm at jesus college oxford in a pretty smart new building and i've got the old building behind me if you're watching us on youtube and um i'm at an ai summit of course which is everyone's got an ai summit these days but anyway oxford university has got one it's not just Jesus College and I will be speaking after I've stopped speaking to you.

3:12Ed Balls: Is it you speaking or can they have an AI speech say what you ought to say?

3:19George Osborne: No no it'll be it'll be authentic me I'm in conversation with what actually one of our great one of the country's great AI researchers Sir Nigel Shadbolt who we're going to be having a conversation about obviously the future of regenerative AI and the regulation of AI and what AI is going to do for our economy, which might feature a bit if we talk about the budget in this episode, which I think we're going to do. But I have noticed, I was on the way here, Ed, and you know, the IMF is meeting. The International Monetary Fund has got their big annual meeting. And this year, it's in Bangkok. Every three years, it moves outside Washington, doesn't it?

3:56George Osborne: It moves around the world. And I Couldn't help but notice that your bezzy, Ed Miliband, was actually talking about you at the IMF and World Bank meetings. Oh, right. This is what he said. I was an advisor in the Treasury in the 2000s, as I mentioned, working with Gordon and Shruti on development and debt in the Arctic Glen Eagles in 2005, the biggest debt relief intervention for a generation. I even remember being phoned and shouted out by Bob Geldof, although at the end of the conversation he made clear that he thought I was Ed Balls. my uh my my golly so why is but why was bob geldoff i mean i can imagine shouting at ed milliband because like lots of people do that but why would bob geldoff be shouting at you

4:38Ed Balls: hoping to shout at you and getting the wrong ed well look he was the huge driving force behind make poverty history which was campaigning for big debt relief but also um financial support the um to back the development goals at that 2005 big summit and he was always on the phone urging us on and you know the day he spoke to Ed Miliband I don't know what was said but I do know he would regularly ring me and there were I don't want the puppet

5:06George Osborne: where's the puppet master?

5:08Ed Balls: But there were no niceties at the beginning of this conversation it would be Ed! You've got to forgive forgive the fucking debt the fucking debt Ed! You've got to forgive the fucking debt! And he would basically shout to me for 15 minutes and I would say you're right Bob we have got to forgive the fucking debt if we possibly can and we're doing our best on that and thank you for your support and moral suasion and i'll talk to you soon and then he obviously this time he rang ad milliband but i would think the message was the same oh look he was a force of nature

5:36George Osborne: he still is i came across him actually the other day at the bruton literary festival and he was on fine form and um he's again he's still saint bob isn't he i mean despite his uh use of expletives

5:49Ed Balls: when you think i mean live aid and now what a revolutionary thing it was to have a live concert like that for a global cause, but two different concerts both sides of the Atlantic, all the technology to make that happen. I mean, you know, nowadays it would be easy. Back then it was so hard. I think actually nowadays

6:07George Osborne: it'd be incredibly hard to get all those artists on stage. That is almost certainly the case. Yes. Anyway, do you miss going to the IMF meetings?

6:17Ed Balls: Well, I do miss going to the IMF meetings because actually I always used to find it to have the whole world there putting politics and often ideology aside to talk about the economy and trade. I mean, I think it's pretty harder these days, but I went to meetings in, the first one I went to was Hong Kong in 1998. We had a dinner for the British delegation on the first evening. And for some reason, they chose a very dodgy part of Hong Kong. It was basically the red light district. And we lost the senior finance official, Nigel Wicks. So Nigel Wicks, I mean, nobody knew where he'd gone. we had to send a search party out to make sure that he hadn't been waylaid in the end he made

6:56George Osborne: it to the restaurant all was fine I uh I met um Mark Carney at the IMF meetings in Tokyo and I was trying to get him to become governor of the Bank of England and the only kind of private place we could have a meeting was in my hotel bedroom which was this incredibly small sort of Japanese size single bedroom and the two of us rather awkwardly sort of sat on this bed because there There wasn't even a chair. And I was like talking to him. I was the chancellor. He was the governor of the Bank of Canada. And there was security in the corridors. And I think they saw these two men go into this little hotel bedroom and emerge half an hour later.

7:35George Osborne: But the deal was done.

7:37Ed Balls: We could do a whole hour episode on IMF meeting stories. However, we've got to get on with it.

7:44George Osborne: Yes. What are we going to talk about? We're going to talk about what the IMF, I suspect, is talking about, which is not just the world economy, but geopolitics, the breakdown in the relationship between the US and Ukraine, Trump's deal with Putin, if that's the right word for it, and the attacks in the Gulf, particularly on Saudi Arabia. In other words, the kind of foreign policy environment and how the British government will be engaging with that.

8:09Ed Balls: And then we are recording this 19 days before the midterms, which are definitely shaping what Donald Trump is doing. But I think 13 days before the budget and for John Healy, that will be his consuming focus at the moment, even though he's out in East Asia, he'll be thinking about what he's going to be saying in the House of Commons. So we're going to talk about the budget second and what will be going on in the Treasury and what the big strategic choice Chancellor John Healy has to make.

8:41George Osborne: And then finally, some of you will have fond memories of when Bob Geldof took to the river to confront Nigel Farage during the Brexit referendum, the Battle of the Thames when they were shouting at each other, I think over kind of bullhorns. Are we about to rerun the Brexit referendum? Because Andy Burnham has been stepping up the rhetoric, not stepping down the rhetoric, on a closer relationship with the EU. And he's also been suggesting that the Russians might have had something to do with the first result, which has caused all sorts of consternation. So we're going to have a look again at his reopening of the Brexit debate.

9:16Ed Balls: We're going to start, though, with geopolitics and events of the last few days. As I said, the backdrop to the midterms and the UK budget. But things started at the weekend with the decision by Donald Trump to essentially put aside global sanctions against Russia to do a deal to purchase diesel from Russia to the United States to try and get the price down. And he did so while at the same time, basically lashing out at Ukrainian leader Zelensky, saying that Ukraine needed a change of president, and also saying there should be an immediate ceasefire in the war. This is what he said. You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides say they have not agreed to that.

10:13Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said you agreed. That's why. They agreed because I said they agreed. And that thing has to get settled. That war is a disaster. Did you see the numbers that just came out this month? 32 ,000, mostly soldiers were killed, young people, 32 ,000 killed. That war has to be over with.

10:35Ed Balls: Now, this is complicating for Andy Burnham because, of course, he had President Zelensky coming to visit Britain, and he's also trying to manage the American relationship. So Andy Burnham decided the right thing to do was to be diplomatic. President Trump made a call at the weekend for an energy ceasefire. And Vladimir, you have shown your leadership in saying that you would be prepared to sit down and discuss what that looks like to make sure we protect people from a very harsh winter that lies ahead in Ukraine. Sadly, what we have seen from Russia is further attacks on critical national infrastructure in Ukraine.

11:19It's clear to the world, again, who the aggressor is in this conflict. However, in these moments, Britain will continue to provide you with whatever support that we can.

11:34Ed Balls: But it wasn't just Russia attacking critical infrastructure. We now know that Elon Musk, who last night also caused for Zelensky to step down, has basically, we assume with the agreement of the White House, been scaling back support from the Starlink system, the satellite system which he controls, but is also used by the US military and is vital to Ukrainian defences against Russian drone attacks to scale that back. And while Andy Burnham was being diplomatic overnight, after his meeting with Andy Burnham, President Zelensky did an interview with Piers Morgan on his YouTube channel. And let's just say Mr.

12:17Ed Balls: Zelensky was being rather less diplomatic.

12:19George Osborne: Do you feel betrayed by what has been happening?

12:25Really, yes. Really, between us. but it's a little bit more complicated than just my emotions or my feelings. What is your message to Elon Musk? No, it's a big mistake. A lot of losses. This decision will bring a lot of human losses. People are dying because of this decision. Of course, people will die. Of course, if attacks will continue and if sterling will not work, of course, I mean, it's not helpful.

12:53Ed Balls: I think we have to give a little bit of advice to President Zelensky. you can't ever say to Piers Morgan between us it's not how it works yes no I saw that myself

13:04George Osborne: this last week when I was at the hairdresser I just had my haircut and I came out and there was Piers coming in to also get his haircut and we had a nice conversation and he put up a photo of it on Instagram almost minutes after I'd left so you did pose for the photo the photo is you peers and your um hairstylist hairstylist cheryl she is a brilliant hairdresser shout out to cheryl and uh just let me say she does a better job with me than she does with peers or am i gonna risk provoking the ire of piers morgan we will see we'll post a photo in our

13:42Ed Balls: socials peers are like that although it's it's a bit messy it's a bit messy what my hair i yeah i

13:48George Osborne: think i think that's only because i've got up early to get to oxford so i could do this podcast I think we're being diverted from the big issues facing the world. Yeah, I mean, look, I felt Andy Burnham is getting a lesson, not that he particularly needed it, that recent British prime ministers have also had to have in how to navigate the Trump presidency and the complexity of this Ukraine-Russia conflict. And it's really the first time he's sort of been thrown the curveball, isn't it, of Trump doing something that is completely antithetical to Britain's foreign policy and its interests. And he has to navigate that.

14:25George Osborne: And he was trying to do that also in the House of Commons, wasn't he, when Ed Davey was questioning him about it. And I do think, you know, if you think of what, you know, Britain's Ukraine strategy is basically isolate Russia. So, you know, ever since the invasion of Ukraine, you know, people don't deal with Putin, they don't allow Russia to attend international gatherings. Second, it's impose sanctions on Russia. And third, it's provide military support and equipment to Ukraine. And all three of those things are undermined at the moment by our lead ally and superpower, United States, because Trump's phoning Vladimir Putin, so he's not isolated, and indeed inviting him to the G20 in Miami later this year.

15:11George Osborne: Second, of course, he's instead of, you know, instead of doubling down on sanctions, he's actually doing deals for like Russian diesel oil. And then third, and it's kind of, you know, Elon Musk, to be fair here, says this is an American administration decision, not mine. He's withdrawing or degrading the kind of level of US support. All at the same time, Britain's arguing for a completely different direction. And it just, you know, the problem is, it's just a mess. It's a mess in the Western alliance and because the United States is the bigger player, biggest player in the alliance, the other countries can't really call it out without risking getting on the kind of wrong end of his ire and none of them want to do that at the moment.

15:54Ed Balls: Although it is, it's horrifying to see things develop in this way. We had the speech this week by the MI5 chiefs Ken McCallum, only makes one speech a year, our internal security expert saying that Russia is now Britain's biggest enemy and our closest ally is doing sanction breaking deals with our biggest enemy you know in the vain hope it might reduce diesel prices in America by a few p I mean the impact is going to be so small but the signal it sends and the to leave the Ukrainian people exposed in this way I mean it's actually it's so shocking I remember when we around the time Trump was elected, you and I had a conversation where you said Zelensky is going to have to sue for peace.

16:45Ed Balls: There'll have to be a deal. But this is not the way to do it.

16:50George Osborne: Well, you know, first of all, remember, President Biden didn't provide Ukraine with the level of military support that Britain wanted. So it's always worth remembering, you know, that, yes, Donald Trump acts, you know, to the rest of the world erratically and it's hard to manage him. But at the same time, there are things he does which are quite consistent with US foreign policy. Biden was always trying to contain Ukraine's ability to strike the Russian heartland. And that's precisely what Trump has also been angry about, that Ukraine's been kind of hitting energy infrastructure inside Russia to considerable effect in terms of putting pressure on the Russian economy.

17:35George Osborne: So that, you know, that is worth it. And then I just think you have to be realistic, which is what is your kind of landings? There's no good Britain. What's interesting about Andy Burnham is he has just picked up the position that all British prime ministers have had since the invasion of Ukraine. Unstinting support for Ukraine and for Zelensky personally. I mean, Andy Burnham even had kind of the guardsmen in the in the Busby hats outside Downing Street to make a very visual statement of that. And yet.

18:02Ed Balls: Plus a meeting with the king, which is very significant and unusual. Right.

18:06George Osborne: But then what is Britain's contribution then to the discussion of how you might try and bring this conflict to an end? Have we just sort of given up? We're just like, whatever we are, we're 100 % for Ukraine and we're not trying to find the landing zone. Which means that if you're the US negotiators, the Jared Kushners and the Steve Witkoffs and the White House and the State Department, you know, does Britain have any voice in that? Or maybe Britain just decides, a British prime minister decided, well, we're not going to have a voice in that anyway. So we might as well just be like 100 percent consistent supporters of Ukraine.

18:41George Osborne: The trouble is, I just don't think Britain is at the moment, you know, clearly things like Trump's call to Putin and the easing of sanctions just completely catch Britain by surprise. as probably Britain was caught by surprise by the French decision this week to lobby the EU to remove a Russian oligarch from the sanctions list. In return, it looks like, and I mean, you know, you have to draw a dotted line here, for the release of a French prisoner in Azerbaijan. So, you know, it's all very well being, it's very easy, it makes it easy in the House of Commons and on the steps of Downing Street to say, we are 100 % steadfast supporters of Ukraine.

19:18George Osborne: but Britain alone is not able to help Ukraine to victory and and that I just it's a very hard message which no one wants to hear in Britain but you know where it where is the landing what is the attempt to kind of find some kind of solution to the conflict or do we still you know believe ultimately Ukraine will push the Russian army out of Ukraine in which case we are alone pretty much in thinking that.

19:45Ed Balls: But we know that Russia is the aggressor. Oh, for sure.

19:50George Osborne: Yeah, this is not a moral argument. It's a real politic argument.

19:54Ed Balls: But they've also taken territory. There have been moments in the last two years since Donald Trump became president where the prospect of a deal was on the table. And the reason why in the end it didn't happen was because Putin didn't want to cooperate. and if you keep the pressure on then there's a chance of bringing him to the table and I would think if I'm Zelensky a Putin under pressure needing to do a deal is a deal I'd want to make but everything in the last few days has had the opposite effect it's taken the pressure off Putin that's the thing which is shocking and in those circumstances it is very hard for Britain and Europe because you can't afford Putin to think he's won

20:41George Osborne: Yeah, but hold on, if you have Vladimir Putin sitting there this week, you're not that worried by what Andy Burnham's saying. You're paying a lot more attention to what Donald Trump is saying and indeed what Zelensky said on Piers Morgan's show, and credit to Piers for getting that interview.

20:57Ed Balls: Exactly, which is why it takes the pressure off Putin thinking he needs to get around the table.

21:04George Osborne: I mean, there's an interesting thing going on at the same time because this is all about the price of oil and the price of diesel as a sort of particular feature of it. And as you, you know, have said already, the impact has on the midterm elections. It's also having an impact on the politics in every single Western democracy at the moment, because this is cost of living inflation, which makes it really hard for incumbent governments. And yet, if you look at the Gulf, there's the sort of two interesting developments there. On Iran, in fact, the kind of US naval blockade of Iran, which has been going on for the last couple of months, is proving quite effective.

21:37George Osborne: and Iran is really feeling the pressure. And there are more ships going through the Straits of Almus. They're not blocked in the same way they were because of the kind of naval convoys that the US are providing. But that's actually taking Iranian oil out of the market, so that's putting the price up as well. And then second, these strikes on the Saudi airport, the airport in Riyadh, which I've been to that airport quite a few times, I mean, that was also a real warning as well, that this region, because of the development of drone warfare, things like US bases, big pieces of Saudi infrastructure, suddenly, instead of being acts of imperial power and presence, are actually targets.

22:23George Osborne: And I think that Houthi attack is potentially a really significant, in some ways potentially more significant as a foreign policy development this week than even the kind of Trump, Putin, Zelensky rouse. Because suddenly it opens up all this question of, well, can you, you know, what about all the oil infrastructure in the Gulf? Is it all vulnerable to these new forms of warfare?

22:47Ed Balls: Of course, I think while you're right to say that the flow of crude oil has increased, it's still well below what would be normal, but the flow of refined products, agricultural products fertilizers and gas is not recovered because of the destruction of you know the the refining infrastructure so although there might be a little bit of good news around the flow of crude oil if what you're measuring this by is what's the impact going to be on energy prices food prices in Britain America Europe around the world in the next three to six months. I mean, the answer is, this is bad news. And you've got Donald Trump saying, I'm putting my name on the ballot, because he thinks he won the 2024 presidential election, because people were voting for him and his agenda.

23:42Ed Balls: He won the election because people were voting against Joe Biden, high inflation, high prices, high prices, and high inflation, and high energy prices are now even bigger deal in American politics. And Donald Trump is getting the blame. And so I don't think that strategy is going to work for him. We'll see the midterm terms in the next few weeks. But right here and now, it's John Healy who's got to face the inflation cost of living challenge in less than two weeks' time in his budget.

24:14George Osborne: Yeah, no, that's right. I mean, all American presidents try and get the cost of gas down as they would get petrol down. as you approach an election. I remember Obama trying to get us to release oil reserves, which we didn't really have, to be honest, in the advance of his re-election in 2012. So I think that behaviour is that different. But all chancellors facing rising fuel bills and rising energy costs are in a real difficult position as they approach a budget. And that, as you say, with, I think, UK energy bills projected to go up by 16 % in the next few months, and with food inflation going up to 6 % in the next few months, That is the central backdrop to this budget.

24:54George Osborne: And we're going to talk about that next.

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27:10George Osborne: Welcome back. So as we said, the IMF is gathering in Bangkok. Not only is the British Foreign Secretary there for the World Bank meetings, but John Healy is there, the Chancellor. And if you were him, I think you'd be quite pleased with this IMF meeting because he arrives with some plaudits from the IMF. And that would help you set up a budget narrative for a budget you're to deliver in a couple of weeks time. I was always trying to get international support for my economic plan. And I think John Healy can plausibly say he's got it. This was him giving an interview last night in Bangkok. And I think he's doing some more interviews later today.

27:49George Osborne: But you can see what he's trying to say. We have a plan and the IMF backs it, which is a bit of deja vu for me. I'm pleased the IMF here in Bangkok have backed our economic plans in london they say the uk stands out on growth despite the deep economic shocks that are affecting worldwide at present they say britain stands out on our plans to get to grips with the big borrowing costs by previous governments they also say it's important to stay the path and i will follow that as i prepare my budget in two weeks time so i think if you were john you would be um pretty pleased wouldn't you with the imf commentary because at the moment uh the director the managing director of the imf uh chrysalina georgeva singled out the uk as saying it's taking decisive action on deficit reduction doesn't need to go faster and the imf upgraded the uk's growth forecast almost alone among the g7 and um and took us you know took up their forecast this year by 0.5 % to 1.6%, still not stellar, but a lot better than less.

29:01George Osborne: Now, all that we have this morning and like latest GDP numbers from the ONS, which suggests maybe things aren't as strong as that, it's just 0.1%. But what would you think? I mean, the Treasury team traveling to Thailand will be thinking, yeah, okay, not a bad backdrop to set up the argument in the budget.

29:22Ed Balls: I think you have to distinguish between it being good having the IMF saying these things, and then what your messaging, what your preparing of the ground is. And look, of course, it's the case having the IMF saying positive things is helpful. And they've done that. Although they have downgraded growth for next year, but they upgraded it for this year. They praised the fact that Rachel Reeves has a fast deficit reduction path, which she's then handed on to John Healy. Although, of course, part of the reason why the deficit is coming down faster now is because the deficit was pushed up quite strongly in the first budget back in the autumn of 2024.

30:03Ed Balls: I mean, borrowing was increased at the beginning of the Labour government to then come down again. But the thing you don't want is being slapped on the wrist by the IMF, And that is not what is happening here. But the question then is, what is your messaging? Because I think with these IMF meetings, we always would use the September, October IMF meeting to sort of condition expectations about growth of the economy going into the...

30:27George Osborne: Condition expectations is, Treasury speak for, leak the numbers. Certainly. This is all pre-OBR, so you actually had the numbers. These were treasury numbers, which you could then you could put out to the travelling British press pack. These were the numbers on borrowing and growth, if not the exact numbers, kind of heavily condition the backdrop against which the budget was going to be reported.

30:52Ed Balls: Well, look, politics is all about preparing the ground and making people understand the challenges you're facing and how you're solving them. The growth number this morning is 0.1%. 0.1 % is a very small growth number. Actually, the market city expectation was it was going to be worse, that it was going to be 0 or even negative. So actually 0.1 is slightly better than expected. But in that circumstance, do you say, as the Treasury has said, good news on growth at 0.1 %? Or do you use the fact that 0.1 is quite low to shape expectations? The truth is going into this budget this year, next year, and the coming years, it is really hard for John Healy because growth is going to slow down.

31:34Ed Balls: Inflation is higher than expected. The public finances are going to be worse than expected. As you said, energy bills are going to be going up for families and for businesses this autumn, particularly in January. And I think if I was advising John Healy, I would say it's good to have the support of the IMF. But let me tell you, this is a very, very difficult global circumstance and very difficult for Britain. Inflation is higher. Growth is going to be lower. but we will get through this by making difficult long-term decisions while we reform our economy for the medium term. I'm not sure that I would be saying, this is good news, it's going well, you know, great to have the IMF endorsement, because in 13 days time, he's going to have to deliver difficult messages.

32:24Ed Balls: And is he going to be able to blame the global economy, the world, or does it feel as though, having told everybody that it was going great when you're in Bangkok, what's happened? Because I thought it was working and now it's much harder again. So if it was me, I would be much more cautioning. Now that may be an out of date view because maybe in modern politics, you just have to tell people what they want to hear and assume they've forgotten it by tomorrow. But I don't believe that. I actually think the economic messaging needs to be more strategic and more medium term than that. And I think this is a very difficult budget.

32:59Ed Balls: But it needs to be a long-term, tough, reforming budget. At the moment, it sounds like it's all going fine.

33:07George Osborne: You obviously didn't get the memo about hope again.

33:10Ed Balls: Well, if I'm told I'm going to pay£50 a month more on my energy bills in January, hope does not make me warmer. That is the problem. And so I would be saying, look, this is a very difficult environment. Good to have the IMF support. We've made the difficult decisions. We will continue to do so. We will get through this as a country and as a world, but only by sticking to the medium-term plan. I would be slightly more cautioning than I thought John was in that message there. We'll see what he does later today. But, you know, it's hard. Look, interest rates are going up. Inflation is higher. Living standards are actively falling now in the UK because of the income squeeze from higher inflation and higher taxes.

34:02Ed Balls: People don't feel better off and they want to understand why and what you're doing about it.

34:08George Osborne: I'm teasing you a little bit. And I actually agree with you that you want to be setting kind of expectations in the right place. And you definitely need to be saying, look, I know things are going to be difficult, but it's worth it because we can get through this and there's a plan. and I think but but I think in his defense there are sort of two elements to the plan aren't there and I think one is is reasonably solid now and that is the fiscal framework the deficit reduction plan you know the reassurance to the bond markets that Britain you know can live within its means I think for a particular sort of Labour government you know he he's you know he and Andy Burnham have re-adopted the fiscal rules.

34:53George Osborne: They've had the endorsement of the IMF on that. And it means that that kind of bit of the budget is reasonably solid. You can imagine writing the budget speech now. We set to our plan. It's one of the fastest deficit reduction plans in the world. It's been endorsed internationally. The problem and the missing part, and for which at the moment there is no real narrative, is what about the growth bit? What is this all for? Okay, it's all for deficit reduction and stabilizing markets and so on. But, you know, what is your actual, what are you actually going to use the budget for beyond that? And is it to help with the cost of living, which has been the Andy Burnham message, and I thought was just beginning to fray in the last week, his kind of cheeky, you know, cheeky chap on TikTok, guy from the north, i'm doing everything i can to help you know he started saying on um fuel didn't he um uh like i've introduced a new thing on google maps so you can see what the price of petrol is in different petrol stations near you and people said thanks a lot that's not doing anything for the rapidly increasing price of a litre of diesel and uh petrol and you know it's it shows how kind of you know it's a puny measure in the face of big events and it reminded me a bit of when um you know the cameron government got into trouble when we said you know oh and this was actually facing fuel strikes it was like well why don't you fill up a jerry can and keep it at home it's like okay but that's not really you know addressing the central point which is what are you doing for me government and and i and there's a risk here that his whole message which we've been talking about on this podcast since his election as the leader is which is um you know these kind of i I just want to help a bit on, you know, I'm doing what I can to.

36:41George Osborne: It just gets overwhelmed by, as you say, a big rise in fuel bills. And this is the mistake of making cost of living the thing you say you can do something about. Same mistake that Keir Starmer made, same mistake Rishi Sunak made. Rather than saying, look, it's a very difficult international situation. We can't control the cost of living for everyone. but we have an economic growth plan that is going to create more jobs higher growth and counteract the forces working against us and i still you know the fact that you and i who are quite kind of close observers of this at at the moment could not write the bit of the budget which is here's our big growth plan and and and we'll have a guess now what some of the measures will be but there's no kind of clearly laid story on that front.

37:33George Osborne: That to me is the big challenge of this budget. What is this budget for?

37:37Ed Balls: Well, I don't think I fully agree with you on the fiscal side, but just first of all on growth, you are right. At the moment, Andy Burnham and John Healy are saying that we need to take back control through regulation of kind of water and energy and we need to get a grip and also we need to devolve powers to mayors and I'm not against either of those things I don't think we should renationalize the water industry but I'm quite happy to have tougher regulation but they're both quite statist and they're both about what the public sector needs to do and if I was John Healy and Andy Burnham I would want a stronger private sector innovation dynamism backing the entrepreneur message there's some suggestions John Healy may some do some stuff on small businesses in the budget that'd be a good thing to do but there is still a gap there But on the fiscal side, I think it is more complicated and politically more complicated than that.

38:34Ed Balls: There's two issues. Everybody's focusing on the here and now, the margin. Rachel Reeves said she was meeting her fiscal rules with a margin slightly over£20 billion. She's overachieving them. But people are saying, is that margin going to be reduced in this budget coming up? And what does John Healy need to do about that? And there's been a bit of a disagreement on this in the last week. The Institute for Fiscal Studies have said they don't actually think the margin is going to be much reduced. They think that while higher debt interest rates, higher debt service costs because of higher interest rates make the public finances worse, higher inflation, which tends to boost tax revenues, and especially when you've frozen personal allowances, pushes more people into higher tax rates, that will be good news.

39:23Ed Balls: and they think those two things may cancel them out. The Resolution Foundation say, actually, they think the margin will be halved. It'll go from over 20 billion down to 12 billion. Question mark, does John Healy, for his credibility, need to take immediate action now to show he's not only meeting the fiscal rules, but with the same margin? I have to say, if I was John Healy, I wouldn't get drawn into that because the margin is there precisely to deal with difficult events, like the events we're dealing with now. So who knows whether the OBR is going to go for the IFS view or the Resolution Foundation view.

39:58Ed Balls: I'm not sure that is his vulnerability.

40:01George Osborne: No, well, it's an interesting question. I actually agree with you. And, you know, my reputation was fiscal hawk, deficit reduction, austerity. If I was him in this situation, I would allow your margin to be deteriorated. I don't think you can lose your margin because then you're breaking your fiscal rules. And you're right. There's sort of mixed messaging at the moment about what exactly is going to happen and there are kind of counteracting forces playing on the public finances what's not happening of course is you're not remotely building up anything like a war chest for your general election which is only now two years away this is precisely the moment you'd be wanting to be meeting your headroom with you know a big margin which everyone now knows and then he's going to turn on the spending and the you know tax cuts as you get close to the election he hasn't got that room for maneuver at all mid-partum George you see I this is where the

40:49Ed Balls: fiscal vulnerability is. And this is where the market vulnerability is. It's not about this year. And it's not about the fiscal margin. This was the Financial Times' headline of their green budget, their big kind of pre-budget analysis. The headline is, Healy must set out how he will fill 35 billion hole, warns the IFS. And the IFS say, if you don't do this, then you're going to lose credibility. Now, what are they talking about? What they're talking about is this, that the plans John Healey will have in his projections this autumn, which are essentially the underpinning for the next spending review, they assume that public spending is very tight indeed at the end of this parliament.

41:41Ed Balls: And what the IFSA, because inflation is higher, that erodes the cash value or the real terms value of the cash projections. They say if you go to the period 27-28 to 20-30-31. So this is a period where they're going to have to do the next spending review and where you have the general election falls in the middle of that. if you assume that health spending continues to rise by 2.7%, which, by the way, is historically very low. I mean, the historical average was a percentage point higher than that. If you assume that John Healy takes the action, which he's going to have to take to get defence spending up.

42:27And he has to meet his own demand that led to his resignation.

42:32Ed Balls: He's got to find 5 billion right now for what Keir Starmer announced, but he needs to find billions more to meet the commitment, which he put in his resignation letter, 3 % by 2030. On that basis, all other government spending departments in that period from 2027, 2028 onwards would have real terms cuts of 0.9 % a year. So you're cutting 0.9 % a year.

43:01George Osborne: housing budgets. But does that matter for a Labour government? I mean, in terms of electorally, because, you know, it's not like the Tories are going to say, oh, you're not cutting enough.

43:10Ed Balls: I mean, if they do, you know, you're like, fine. You asked about the growth plans. What happens to housing spend? Oh, sure. Policing.

43:21George Osborne: Immigration. Education. We could have a whole debate about whether education standards and, you know, law enforcement is, you know, directly correlates how much money you spend on it. That's a different debate. But does it matter? I mean, he's not. If you were Labour going into this general election, I know in the kind of brown play is you would have kind of like, now let's kind of deliver a big cash injection for the NHS, like more schools, more hospitals, et cetera. It became a kind of mantra, didn't it? Schools and hospitals. This government, if you start with when it got the Labour got elected, did spend a huge amount on the NHS.

43:53George Osborne: That was Rachel Reyes's first budget. That money, as far as I can see, has delivered zero political benefit for them and not made a measurable improvement in the NHS. They say it might have staved off worse, but they've blown the kind of money. There's not going to be any money for the next couple of years. So you just have to construct a general election platform on a different basis, which is trying to avoid tax rises. He says, doesn't he, and certainly avoid a kind of problem in the bond market, Liz Truster. style and so he's you know he's actually and he's actually even saying isn't he now well any things any measures i'm out in this budget are going to have to be paid for i can't increase my borrowing it's all going to be quite temporary he's not i just think you know they're easing the pressure as you get to the general election on public expenditure is probably not going to

44:40Ed Balls: be a big option for it particularly because of defense look look i understand that argument and i understand you making that argument and um the question is whether john healy and andy Burnham want to make that argument. This is a government which says they want to transform social care. They want to transform education. They want to make our borders secure and make our streets safe. They want to meet their housing targets. They want to give mayors the power to do all these things. By the way, at the moment, it looks like they're postponing the Milburn Review, and that will be because the Milburn Review of Welfare, to get savings in 10 years' time, will require them to spend more now.

45:20Ed Balls: We're going into a budget where it looks as though the only spend uplift is going to be defence without being paid for by savings from welfare, as Kemi Beidok has been saying. But when you get into the next spending review and the platform for the election, do you really want to fight the election on cutting public spending across all public services if you're a Labour government? Now, from John Healy's point of view, I think he has got choices. There is one choice, which is to muddle through, ignore the IFS, say it doesn't matter, these spending plans aren't credible, to essentially do what Jeremy Hunt and Rachel Reeves did in the 2024 general election, hope something turns up and something might turn up.

46:03Ed Balls: By the way, if I was John Healy, I would definitely want another fiscal event before my spending review. Forget this idea that you only have one budget a year. They'll need something in the spring to set the spending review up. One thing they do is muddle through. I think that is what he's going to do. The second thing they could do is come out and say, for the big long-term challenges that we are going to face, we're going to have to pay more tax. That is very, very difficult on the basis of what's already happened on tax in this parliament. But the truth is you aren't going to transform the health service and social care and education and policing and housing, I don't think, on the current budgets, unless you get a big growth dividend, let alone transform them on the basis of 0.9 % real cuts, or you come out, which is what you're saying.

46:50Ed Balls: And I think if I was a conservative, this is what a conservative would say. You say, actually, 0.9 % cuts is fine. Let's have more efficiency savings. Rachel Reeves has assumed big productivity savings. We'll have even bigger ones. Let's say AI is going to transform things. We can do better public services on the basis of cuts. It's essentially the austerity strategy. Now, I don't think John Healy and Andy Burnham can, in any credibility, make that argument. I think they will get blown away internally and externally. Yeah, but who by? Well, by the voters. But where are the voters going to turn?

47:33George Osborne: They're not going to turn to the Tories if they don't think there's enough health spending, do they?

47:36Ed Balls: On the basis of people's lived experience. Go back to the point I made about Biden and Trump. unless people feel that in their lives the health service is getting better and there's more police in the streets and the houses are being built and the economy is getting stronger.

47:55George Osborne: It's a bit late in this parliament to be trying to deliver some of those things.

47:57Ed Balls: But if at the same time those things aren't coming through, you're saying the solution is 0.9 % real terms cuts. I mean, you know, maybe...

48:08George Osborne: Because I think the negative...

48:09Ed Balls: If I was Kemi Badenock, I think I might have a chance of getting away with that. If you're John Healy and Andy Burnham, no way. They can't run that argument. And if they're thinking of it, I mean, that would be very, very dangerous, I think.

48:21George Osborne: The missing piece of your puzzle is these tax rises that are supposed to pay for all this. And where on earth are they coming from? Right. And in fact, the government have been going out of their way to say, look, we're not about to increase capital gains tax in a big way. And there's going to be no wealth tax. And, you know, there's certainly going to be no more taxes on business. You know, that was a signal in the party conference speeches. So the problem is, I think, the risk that is in a risky situation because of the global environment. The best thing is to get to the general election as careful stewards of the economy, hoping for a beginning of the easing of the inflationary pressures, real income starting to rise, maybe.

48:58George Osborne: That's your hope. You're kind of like another dose of taxes.

49:03Ed Balls: So on that basis, when would you have the election? See, I think if I was Andy Burnham and I looked at these polls, I'm not sure I'd want an election. But if I looked at these public finance projections, I thought about what the IFS is saying. I thought about real terms cuts, you know, the year after next in a standard election year. Maybe I need to have the election early.

49:25George Osborne: Or maybe you need to open up a whole new argument about rejoining the European Union and make that the dominant issue in the general election. Look, we're going to find out.

49:35Ed Balls: Do you remember when we said, we used the word austerity, and Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves suddenly went out of their way to keep saying in interviews, this is not austerity. I mean, I don't think Andy Burnham and John Healy are going to want to be in the same place. And if they think you can dream up efficiency savings and say that's going to solve the problem when you've got 0.9 % real cuts, and say the only thing we're going to give more money to is defence, no way. I think they might reintroduce my help to buy scheme, which silly Tory governments got rid of after I left.

50:07George Osborne: Now it turns out it made money for the country, got people into the home. I think they might rebrand it. But if that's in the budget, it'll get a cheer from me. Anyway, we'll see. Let's talk. Let's turn to let's turn to Europe next, because that is fascinating. And is this like foot in mouth disease from Andy Burnham or is there a real political strategy here?

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53:27Ed Balls: So, welcome back. We thought we'd talk about Europe third and what is going on. Andy Burnham made a reference to the European Union in his conference speech, but then doubled down the next day on the Today programme. I mean, raising the possibility of Britain rejoining the European and the union, maybe a commitment in Labour's manifesto. Nothing was off the table. And I guess kind of motivated by this thought, he decided to appear on the Rest His Politics podcast. Alistair Campbell, Roy Stewart, both seen as being fairly fervent remainers. And Andy Burnham chose that interview to say something very striking about the 2016 referendum and Russian interference, although he then had to row back himself just a few hours later.

54:27Ed Balls: And Kemi Badenok pounced on this. Just take a quick listen. I asked the question coming into Downing Street, well, was there interference in the 2016 referendum from Russia? And I've had the clear answer that yes, there was. It is a matter of record, Mr. Speaker, that Russian actors sought to interfere in the 29th general election and we think it is inconceivable that this was the first time and he spent the last 48 hours trying to unsay that russia influenced the 2016 referendum when we all heard him say it does he ever get tired of putting his foot in his mouth

55:08George Osborne: so let's start with the andy burnham style then come on to the substance i mean So obviously his communication style is much more fluid and natural than Keir Starmer's. And he goes around saying things like, well, I've always thought we should rejoin Europe. Or anyone knows that if Abu Dhabi pull out of Manchester City, that's bad news for Manchester. or you know he i mean and is that and there's some evidence that people have warmed to him and labor have got a bit of a bounce since he's arrived in downing street and so on

55:44Ed Balls: so what's the kind of a strong evidence i mean you know it's authentic it's cutting through people

55:49George Osborne: like it he says what he thinks maybe and then maybe let's take a you know people you wouldn't want to be compared to um boris johnson and donald trump you know didn't they kind of tear up the rules of of alistair campbell i mean since we talk about the rest of politics and the spin doctors and the discipline on the message and the kind of clinton era as well as the blair era that you know isn't he sort of post all that where people don't mind a kind of messiness in the message they don't expect people to you know they don't want their politicians to be just kind of the line to take us um and he's he's in that kind of in that in that world of like this is what i think and the world can move around me rather than me having to sort of stick to some script that someone else has written.

56:35Ed Balls: I think that is right although when you have to correct yourself on something sensitive there is a danger that that starts to impact upon whether people decide to trust the next thing you say. I mean as a strategy of being authentic and filling the space I think he wants to be out there saying interesting things which people kind of talk about and engage with and you know saying it how it feels to him I mean that all makes sense but you know if you say for example on the 2016 referendum and you choose to say this and you say this without being prompted I know I've had the clear answer Russia interfered what you're saying is Russia interfered to sway what was a very close referendum.

57:24Ed Balls: And therefore you are casting doubt on whether the 2016 referendum was legitimate. And that makes half the country anyway, maybe more than half the country, angry. Because it feels as though you're saying everybody was duped.

57:40George Osborne: Although I like, just in passing, of course, everyone assumes that Russian interference means pushing for a leave vote, even though the Brexiteers were saying that, you know, if we left the European Union, Britain would be stronger. I mean, it's just even Kemi Badenoch assumes that that's what everyone's talking about, Russian interference to push for a leave vote. And indeed, in the 2019 election, get Jeremy Corbyn elected, presumably.

58:04Ed Balls: But my assumption is Russia read your Treasury documents and concluded that leaving would weaken the British economy. And therefore, that was why they were pushing us in that direction. But I don't think as prime minister, where everybody thinks prime ministers make decisions and can have their decisions enacted. And you don't want to say things. This has happened on quite a few things. It's happened on Manchester City. It's happened on...

58:30George Osborne: You were very quick to call out the Manchester City intervention as potentially very difficult for him. And he's definitely, I wouldn't say it's been a grade A scandal, but it certainly caused a bit of hassle for him ever since.

58:43Ed Balls: It has. And there's been a few of these things. You don't really want Downing Street to need to... I mean, the same thing happened over the Scottish referendum. I mean, he was quite loose around his speaking about Anne Whittacombe in PMQs this week. You actually had... I referred to the MI5 chief, Sir Callum McCallum, in his speech. His speech says that suggesting that Russian interference works plays into their hands, and they'll be delighted by this. And you don't really want the head of MI5 to be correcting the Prime Minister a couple of days after. And they just need to work out how to find a way to let Andy be Andy without him having to correct himself or be corrected regularly, because that ends up being...

59:31Ed Balls: You know, George, this has become a thing now in Westminster and amongst the journalists, that they think this is about to happen and they're waiting for it. And you don't want that to become something reputational, I don't think. Not in British politics. You know, maybe Donald Trump, when the New York Times had their kind of catalogue of Trump lies, and it just became, you know, so regular, and maybe the Trump supporters didn't care. I'm not sure whether the Trumpian parallel quite works for a British prime minister.

1:00:05George Osborne: No, you definitely want to convey, I can say what I like because I'm in charge, rather than I say what I like and I'm afraid it demonstrates I'm not in charge because I can't deliver. Let's on to the politics of closer relationship with the EU. The Tories say, oh, we're rubbing our hands. We'd love to fight the Brexit referendum again. I mean, that doesn't make much sense to me because the opinion polls suggest, at least now, the public would favor rejoining. Now, let me be the first to say, not clear, you would then be able to win a referendum and all those issues of immigration and money to Brussels and stuff would reemerge.

1:00:46George Osborne: But from Andy Burnham's sort of narrower perspective of can I unite the left? You know, the polling is very straightforward. I mean, people who currently vote Labour or Green or Liberal Democrat all strongly support rejoining the EU. And if you go back to what we talked about in the last week's episode, which is Kemi Baden-Koch's strategy, you know, she's no longer trying to out reform reform. She's trying to win over prosperous middle class voters across the South. And that's the next chunk of voters. Those people voted Remain. So it's not quite straightforward for her. And she's trying to win over the support of the business community.

1:01:21George Osborne: And the last thing they would want were Burnham to make steps towards a closer relationship with the EU for those to be unpicked at a general election. So I think from Burnham's point of view, what's not to like about this strategy of talking up a closer relationship with the EU, potentially delivering some substantive things before the election. We've got to summit later this year. Opening up the question of whether we might have a future vote and kind of leaving the Tory party fighting in the kind of reform space and being the Brexit party again. I mean, I can see a lot of attractions. I agree it should be done with more discipline and we'll come on to how you might win a referendum.

1:01:58George Osborne: It's not by suggesting the Russians won the last one. It's by kind of taking on seriously the arguments that succeeded last time and coming up with better arguments of our own. But from a sort of narrow, not narrow is the wrong word, but from the politics of this, why isn't this a good plan for Berners?

1:02:15Ed Balls: I think the interesting thing for us to talk about and to track in the coming months is what the actual plan is. And Tim Shipman's piece in The Spectator today about Andy Burnham's foreign policy has within it Downing Street Aid saying the thing which has taken them by surprise. Andy Burnham actually does want to join the European Union. This actually is. He wants to go back. And so if this is a piece of tactics to open up in a soft way a conversation about the European relationship, which draws Greens and Lib Dems back to Labour, especially at a time when the Greens have become more toxic. Andy Burnham, as we suggested, has now said there can't be a partnership with the Greens.

1:03:07Ed Balls: I think he probably meant a coalition or a deal. I'm not sure totally what he meant by that.

1:03:10George Osborne: We should note, of course, since our last podcast, Labour won the Hoban and St Pancroos by-election and Zelensky was comprehensively beat. that is right but if this is opening that up um fine um although you know it does mean that

1:03:26Ed Balls: it makes um the stakes for the forthcoming summit with the European Union a bit higher because on the one hand there's more expectation you'll get a good deal and then if you don't get a good deal and at the moment the Europeans want um us to let for example um EU students come to Britain and pay British fees not international fees I mean that's rather an expensive concession they want a much bigger lean on free movement for young people than I think the British government's going to want to give certainly the the home office it raises the stakes but if it's that's what it is that's one thing um if in fact you think that we talked last week on EMQs about the Makerfield test, Andy Burnham in his by-election poured cold water over the idea of going back into the European Union because he thought that wouldn't work for him in the Makerfield by-election where he's now the Member of Parliament and Makerfield voted very clearly for leaving the European Union.

1:04:29Ed Balls: If he thinks that actually a public opinion has shifted in Makerfield and in Morley and in the Chancellor's seat in Rotherham and therefore people have changed their minds well you know that does change the political dynamic a bit more but does he actually think that he can harden this up to a you know this is a winnable proposition to put into a um a manifesto that we will seek to renegotiate and we will have a referendum to do so i mean i just say my feeling about that and i've been consistent about this on the pod since we started the podcast i think this is just fraught fraught with danger and when people look at these opinion polls and think um the opinion polls say well actually people think it was a mistake and they'd rather we were in you have to think to yourself dynamically how do you go through a whole process in which one you don't know who you're negotiating with in france and in germany in two years time we know that france but that's all like uh somewhere ahead everywhere we are today no no But I'm asking the question, is he actually seeking to do this as opposed to just the vibes?

1:05:36Ed Balls: If he's really seeking to do this and he's going to go for it, who are you negotiating with? Do the French and the Germans want us to have a good deal? Do you really think that having an argument when the public finances and public services are under pressure about the scale of Britain's contribution to the EU budget is going to work for you politically?

1:05:54George Osborne: But you don't have to necessarily open all that up. I mean, you know, you can even just be... You don't now. Okay, you can land some solid trade agreements or deals.

1:06:04Ed Balls: The question I'm asking is whether this is short-term vibes or whether this is actually a serious strategy. And if it's a serious strategy, I'm really quite worried. I think it will be very damaging for the Labour coalition and be very toxic in the country. But maybe that's not what it's about. And I guess I'm asking you whether you think it's just vibes or whether you think it's real.

1:06:27George Osborne: No, I think you can run two things. You can run a continuation of the Starmer approach, which is land some significant improvements in the trade relationship and services relationship with the EU, you know, which was the work that was ongoing. There was already going to be a summit, wasn't there, in July that got postponed. And, you know, actually do so. I mean, I would have gone much further, you know, as people have quoted me since, you know, joining the customs union at the beginning of the period of Labour government and then make it really hard for the Tories to campaign to we're going to come out of the customs union again.

1:07:01George Osborne: So you can make substantive progress on the ground that will help your economy and see off threats like this made in Europe thing, which is going to really damage UK car manufacturing if it goes ahead. And we don't have mitigating measures. So you can do that. And at the same time, I'm just saying you could start to reopen. You don't even have to reopen all the negotiations. You can just say, look, I think we should look again at having a referendum on Europe. Of course, we'll have to have a negotiation before that and da, da, da, da, da. and there's a lot of people in the country who go I'm not massively keen on Labour and you know I don't like their higher taxes and stuff but you know that's quite an attractive proposition I know the Makerfield test in some ways is the wrong test I know he said it Makerfield was won by Labour at the last election it's always been Labour and it was won by Labour in a by-election you know the test is can they hold all the seats in the south and around the home counties and in London that they hurled at the last election and they did that partly by splitting because the Tory reform vote was split but also partly because they did win over you know middle class voters in those areas and this this just might be particularly if your economic backdrop is tough so you're not necessarily going to fight on you know the economy is booming don't blow it which is normally how governments like to fight elections you know if you're trying to think of an alternative strategy to winning a general election you could do like let's go let's go and talk about europe again look labor won in

1:08:30Ed Balls: makerfield uh won in morley in 2024 um when this was off the agenda um 2019 uh the get brexit done

1:08:38George Osborne: referendum was a much but there was jeremy corbyn was the labor candidate that i mean you know boris johnson was saying get brexit done and jeremy corbyn was the alternative and boris was still popular he hadn't been prime minister for more than a couple of months that's right you People were frustrated with the aftermath of Brexit and all the problems in Parliament. And Corbyn was an unacceptable choice for most of the country.

1:08:59Ed Balls: I understand that. Did you see a friend of this podcast, Emily Thornberry, cock a hoop on the TV this week? We don't need a referendum to go back into the European Union. We can just do it in a manifesto. I mean, out there, there's all these people who think we should never have left. Fine. Actually, the public agreed with me. We need another referendum. Free movement. I mean, actually, is that such a problem? Do people really care about it anymore? EU budget? Well, of course we'd have to pay in. Personally, I think that you can get to a conversation about a new relationship, but going back to Realisticate 2016 is just fraught with dangers.

1:09:40Ed Balls: And I'm just not sure that this is wise to go beyond vibes, but we'll see. Good use of current lingo. Vibes. I know.

1:09:54George Osborne: It's in the discourse. If you're in the podcast business, this is great because it gives us a ton of things to talk about, as well as IMF forecasts and Donald Trump's dealings with Vladimir Putin. So while we were interviewing that section,

1:10:09Ed Balls: somebody arrived, knocked on the door and tried to turn George out of his room. He said, no.

1:10:14George Osborne: He looked like an absolute classic. Till 12. He looked like an absolute college lecturer.

1:10:18Ed Balls: Did he? Well, he was given short shrift. George says, I've got this room till 12. I'm speaking at a conference and I've got to finish my podcast. So just so you know, George, he fought no, he said.

1:10:28George Osborne: I would bet anything that he was a Lib Dem voter by the way he looked.

1:10:32Ed Balls: Can I just say, that is so pejorative. These are your former coalition colleagues. How can you say that? We love them. Oh, my goodness. Thankfully, let's draw a line. That's it for this week's episode of Political Currency.

1:10:44George Osborne: Yes. Make sure you check out the show notes to see how you can become a kitchen cabinet or gold subscriber. So you get our EMQs earlier, you get our newsletters and so many perks. Too long to list today.

1:10:57Ed Balls: We're back on Monday with our EMQs, Ex-Ministers questions, including on YouTube now. Answer all your biggest queries and ideas. Of course, you get that early if you are a gold or kitchen cabinet subscriber. Send us your questions. You can send them in by email if you use old technology, questionsofpoliticalcurrency.co.uk. But you can also send them in by going to the comment section on YouTube or on Instagram or on X or wherever you do your socials. And we love voice notes. We love any question and we love answering them.

1:11:29George Osborne: Or you can leave a note at the Porter's Lodge. Or does that not work anymore?

1:11:33Ed Balls: Oh my goodness.

1:11:35George Osborne: That's what you used to do if you went to an Oxford or Cambridge college. But we're very inclusive.

1:11:40Ed Balls: When the guy knocked, you should have said, I'm really sorry. I've got this room till 12. But if you've got a question,

1:11:46George Osborne: Should have got the bulldogs on him.

1:11:48Ed Balls: Would happily answer it.

1:11:50George Osborne: Bulldogs being the policemen of Oxford University.

1:11:53Ed Balls: On the basis of your surmise, the question would have been, so when are you going to legalise cannabis?

1:11:58George Osborne: Yeah, I think in his mind it's already legalised.

1:12:02Ed Balls: We'll see you on Monday for EMQs.

1:12:04George Osborne: See you then.

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