Has Burnham wasted his honeymoon?

0:00Hola, soy Natalie Marcus, nutróloga y conductora del podcast Las 3 R's. El cáncer de colon tocó de cerca a mi familia y me enseñó que detectarlo a tiempo puede marcar una gran diferencia. Así que hablemos de lo que no se habla. Por eso es que estoy colaborando con Cologuard para decirte que si tienes 45 años o más y tienes un riesgo promedio, pregúntale a tu profesional de la salud si Cologuard es adecuado para ti. Es una prueba que puedes usar en casa y detecta el 95 % de los cánceres de colon. Obtén más información en Cologuard.com diagonal prueba. La prueba ColoGuard está diseñada para detectar el cáncer colorectal en adultos de 45 años o más, con un riesgo promedio.

0:35Visita coloGuard.com diagonal prueba para obtener más información, solo con receta médica. Hacerte la prueba es un acto de amor por ti y por tu familia.

1:17¡Gracias por ver el video!

1:34¡Suscríbete al canal!

1:59George Osborne: Y no ha hecho ningún decisión que dice que la gente va a tener un grip en sus finanzas.

2:06Ed Balls: Este es un mucho, mucho más tófer budget, incluso que lo que ha sido un fortnight ago.

2:12George Osborne: Él está escuchando este podcast, Ed, antes de abrir tu boca.

2:20Ed Balls: Este episodio de Political Currency es responsable de Humber Hydrogen.

2:24George Osborne: Ahora Ed, Andy Burnham ha hablado mucho sobre reindustrializar Brasil y creando growth en cada postcode. También ha habido mucho en la news sobre la importancia de la seguridad de la energía. Pero como todos sabemos, hay que tener proyectos que pueden realmente drive estos tiempos.

2:39Ed Balls: Absolutamente, y cuatro empresas, NG, Centrica, SSE Thermal y Equinor, tienen que contribuir a desarrollar el primer integrado industrial hidrógeno clúster en el Humber.

2:52George Osborne: That's right, and as Britain transitions to clean energy, hydrogen has a vital role to play. It provides the cleaner, homegrown energy we need when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine.

3:03Ed Balls: It's also critical for the future of major British industries like steel and chemicals. The Humber is Britain's largest industrial carbon emitter and home to a highly skilled workforce, which National Gas say makes it the obvious place for the government to kickstart Britain's hydrogen economy.

3:19George Osborne: Humber Hydrogen could protect and create tens of thousands of skilled jobs, generate billions in economic growth and attract new industries to the region.

3:27Ed Balls: That's why industry and trade unions are urging the government to back the Humber. To find out more about the project, visit www.humberhydrogen.co.uk. So we are remote today. I thought we were remote because George was in San Francisco and then he turned out he was in Canada. But, you know, that lamp looks familiar. It has a sort of, you know, slightly shabby chintz of your sitting room.

3:56George Osborne: Shabby chintz. You don't know what you're talking about. It's neither shabby nor chintzy. Yeah, I know actually my travel plans changed, Pero estoy en casa y muy emocionante, hemos tenido la entrega de un piano aquí. Estaba esperando por la Laura y Hardy episode de la piano removó men tried a get the piano in, pero ellos fueron muy profesional y han puesto el piano en para mi hijo, Bo.

4:24Ed Balls: ¿Tú playas el piano?

4:26George Osborne: No, es el short answer. I did learn it once, pero no como tú.

4:29Ed Balls: I've got a brilliant piano teacher, Lola Perrin. She es muy bien con niños y adultos y ella teaches online y ella es en Francia ahora pero yo hago mis las cosas con ella cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día cada día y creo que sería quite a challenge para que

4:49George Osborne: pero esto es para Bo Osborne not para George Osborne I know

4:54Ed Balls: pero ¿por qué should los niños be allowed a aprender a aprender a aprender a aprender

4:57George Osborne: Yeah I know you learned didn't you somewhat later en la vida

5:01Ed Balls: I thought I was a shadow chancellor I needed a diversión. Y ahora estoy playing Debussy, Bach y, you know, lo que yo estoy haciendo Bill Evans as well. He es un jazz pianista, played with Miles Davis, pero he did some kind of amazing sort of jazz classical stuff as well. Really, really good. Anyway, it's good to see you in Britain.

5:22George Osborne: I didn't realise you're a part-time Shadow Chancellor. No wonder you, no wonder it was easy to beat you.

5:28Ed Balls: Look, I had a... I mean, having been en gobierno. No es un full-time job. Es lo que yo quiero decir. Así que lo aprende el piano en la misma hora. Leí de some novels. Lo que hay que decir, yo me he missed. Yo was at Martin Wolf's, the FT's economic commentator. Es su 80 de la comandante. Last night y me had a dinner y hay una gente que nos conocemos. People from the economics world pero fue mainly a family y old FT event. He's been the Doyen economic columnist for 40 años basically now y total star, así que fue un gran evento.

6:02George Osborne: Sí, no sé si con Martín, lo que piensa de mí. He no era un gran fan, se me parece, cuando yo era chancellor. He kept diciendo que necesitaba Plan B, y que es por eso que me quedó con Plan A. Es el tipo de, tú sabes, lo que se llama. Pero tal vez he mellowed. Cada vez que veo ahora, he es muy polite, y siempre es worth reading.

6:21Ed Balls: De hecho, tu gran skillo fue de mover de Plan A a Plan B y no me lo noticed. Eso es lo que yo remember. Pero, pero...

6:28George Osborne: Creo que es un tema de la podcast hoy. Los movimientos de plan A a los que se han presentado. Bueno, no me voy a dar cuenta de lo que estamos hablando. Pero tú ves que en todas las tres casos, industrias y individuos están moviendo.

6:42Ed Balls: ¿Dónde están?

6:43George Osborne: Bueno, vamos a empezar con el mundo económico y la gran decisión de la semana de la Fuerza, de Kevin Walsh, el presidente de la Fuerza, y su comité a la base de la inversión en los Estados Unidos. y el decisión que hemos visto es que la Bank de la República no está, al menos, siguiendo su

6:59Ed Balls: Entonces vamos a ir a Canada, donde George fue supposed a estar y ha sido, pero no ahora mismo Pero, pero, realmente, Mark Carney, creo que fue ahí, pero no ha sido así He ha sido en Everton y aquí en el UK con nuestro Prime Minister Andy Burnham, y también a la futbol, pero también a la frontera a Bruselas y también hailed como el potencial nuevo entré en la Unión Europea, al menos en un asociado de la memoria. Así que vamos a ver el canadien-europeán relaciones y también lo que eso significa para el britán.

7:36George Osborne: Sí, yo vi Mark en Canadá earlier este mes, pero yo estaba también en Canadá en Montreal to speak at an AI conference. And of course, all the questions about the governance of AI, global regulation, the threat and the opportunities that this technology pose have really come to the fore in the last week or so. And of course, I declare an interest. I work for OpenAI. But it's absolutely fascinating to see the debate and we are going to discuss it here on the podcast. But let's start with the big decision this week in the world economy, which is the decision of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

8:14George Osborne: They don't actually have a sort of spot rate, do they? They're raising it to sort of 3.75 % to 4 % is the way they express it, a range. And it was widely expected. When we were talking last week, we said this was quite possibly going to happen. There was some key inflation data which came out after we recorded the podcast. But it's still, I think, a pretty significant moment. y vamos a discutir lo que significa para Kevin Walsh y la reputación y la funcionamiento de la Fed. Pero vamos a empezar con el señor de la Fed, Kevin Walsh. Este es cómo se hizo el anunciamiento. Me ha dado un juicio 7 semanas hace el peso de la economía.

8:56Hay un gran conjunto de datos, incluyendo el laboral, que la economía ha crecido. mi juicio un weeks ago fue que la inflación de summer trends no pasen la test he visto muy poco información que me le regreso la decisión y la otra la otra cosa que ha cambiado en 7 meses es la política no hay no hiding de los hot spots around el mundo y la juición de lo que es la más o menos la situación de la geopolitica ha cambiado y tres de esos led themselves a firm unanimous decision today.

9:33George Osborne: Si alguien pensó que no se hubiera un cambio de decision para que no se hubiera un cambio de la decisión o si alguien pensó que la Fed era un muy dividido y que la comité era un cambio de split creo que han sido confounded porque él ha decidido a la comité y ha hecho un cambio de apoyo de la comité y esto es lo que Donald Trump dijo en respuesta. I talked a Kevin y le dije que le pido a votar con el gobierno porque no es nada más que importar. El gobierno es muy hostil. y muy político y están haciendo lo malo son un montón de políticos o personas que han sido putados por políticos y es un malo porque es demasiado alto el interés despite that, el país barreles through todo porque estamos haciendo tan bien pero los interés son demasiado altos deberíamos estar pagando el mínimo de interés en el mundo porque tenemos el crédito fuerte si queríamos que se quede riden de deficiens que podríamos hacer con la pared de cada país nos haríamos un trío y un par de dólares a year.

10:26We pay off our debt, we do all sorts of things, but we haven't chosen to do that, but at some point we will. Interest rates are too high.

10:35George Osborne: So America could get rid of its deficit overnight, Ed. Let's just start with, you know, I think you would say, wouldn't you, they definitely made the right decision, but the reason they're doing this is that inflation in the U.S. is above the 2 % target. Creo que es 3.4 % a la hora. Y no es no va a ir a 2 % en su projeción, al menos, hasta el año 2029. Pero esto es suelido principally por el guerra en Irán y el aumento en el precio de la olía, pero también en el Estados Unidos por una muy fuerte economía. Es un economía que está creciendo bastante fuerte. Y un poco de la contribución de la inflación es no solo el energía, sino también el dinero de la energía.

11:21George Osborne: actually, there's a big investment boom as well which we're going to come on and talk about. So it's somewhat different from the situation here in the UK which we will turn to in a minute. But what did you make? How has it changed or confirmed your view of Walsh's tenure as the new Fed chair?

11:38Ed Balls: Well I think it is a reputationally decisive important moment for Kevin Walsh, this decision and the way he's explained it. I mean, slightly odd that Donald Trump comentar que Kevin Walsh might as well vote with the board but he is the chair of the board and this board he says there are a bunch of politicians or people put on by politicians of course Kevin Walsh was put on as chair of the board by a politician Donald Trump not totally clear quite what he's getting at there although I think fundamentally if you don't agree with Donald Trump then you're a politician because you're on the other side of the argument but of course Kevin Walsh is not agreeing with Donald Trump in the decision and in the explanation he's given.

12:20Ed Balls: I mean, it's interesting, isn't it?

12:21George Osborne: Because Donald Trump's deliberately kind of not going after Kevin Walsh. I mean, that's the kind of most benign way that Donald Trump could explain the decision of his newly appointed pick for the Fed, right? That's true, but he's doing it in a way which tries to diminish Kevin Walsh,

12:41Ed Balls: to make him a sort of flunky. I mean, when he says, I talked to Kevin, I said, you might as well go along with the board because it's not going to matter. Like Kevin Walsh is waiting to talk to Donald Trump to find out what to do. And Donald Trump tells him what to do. That is not what has happened here at all. Go back to earlier in the year. Donald Trump didn't want a Fed chair who was going to raise rates. Kevin Walsh was somebody whose reputation was more hawkish on inflation rather than dovish. He'd been critical in the past. I think there was a period in the early summer where Kevin Walsh got into a little bit of a communications mess about forward guidance and what he was going to say and all of that.

13:19Ed Balls: That's all gone now because he's come out and said inflation is too high. That is why we're acting. He's acting contrary to what the president wants, as the president has confirmed. And he's doing it because he is the appointed independent chair of the Federal Reserve. And I think, you know, that is an important moment. It was always a question in the market's mind, what kind of Fed chair is he going to be? I think the answer is we've now seen very clearly. And I've just come from a local government finance conference and they've done a survey.

13:52George Osborne: You're living your best life, aren't you, Ed?

13:55Ed Balls: Well, you know, rather than sitting at home waiting for a piano to arrive. And they've done a survey of, you know, all these hundreds of local government finance experts. y 25 % de la survey only, 25 % thought there would be a quarter percent rise in UK interest rates over the next 12 months and it just tells you how fast things have changed because 25 % thought rates would go up 75 % clearly didn't think they were going to go up, the markets are now clear that UK rates are going up this autumn, I think even though today's vote 6-3 para el Banco de la Mundo de la Policía Comité no se levanta a la base.

14:38Ed Balls: I mean, we'll wait to see what the commentary is and when the minutes are published, but a high expectation that rates are going to be going up this autumn because inflation earlier this week ticked up to over 3 % here in the UK when the inflation target is 2%. And that underlying inflation surge, as you said, because of what's happening to energy prices, We prefigured this last week in our podcast. We've been warning about this for very many months. The consequences, the ECB raising rates, the Fed raising rates, the Bank of England now set to raise rates, you know, at a delicate time for the British economy.

15:18Ed Balls: But the Bank of England's job is to meet the inflation target.

15:21George Osborne: No, I think things have changed pretty dramatically over the last year and a half, driven principally by Iran, the war in Iran. Pero si piensas de un comentario cuando el Starmer gobierno se hizo electo, y de Rachel Reeves, como chancellor, fue, ¿sí, estamos viendo rates que hay que irse creciente en el UK? Y hay un expectativo, ¿no? De una expectativa, ¿no? De una expectativa, de una reducción de interés y de una reducción de interés. Y luego, ¿no? De una reducción de interés en la reducción de interés. Y ahora, como tú dirías, hay un expectativo, no es un expectativo, no es un expectativo, no es un expectativo.

15:59George Osborne: que las rates en los Estados Unidos se van a ir a la vez más a la otra vez. Y en los Estados Unidos, el mercado es currently preciando cuatro o cinco aumentos en interés en el próximo año, que es bastante mucho, particularmente como la Bank de England es ahora el backmarker de la central central. Antes de llegar a la política aquí, Es un tipo de situación En la U.S. Es un gran economía La economía es fuerte La inversión es muy fuerte Pero ellos tienen Y de hecho, ellos son un exportador Porque de Las cosas como fracking Así que no son No más dependientes En la Oro Como cuando nosotros Es un punto que Donald Trump Me hace He often goes I don't know why You're not helping us en el mundo de la vida, no nos en el mundo, no nos en el mundo, we're way more energía dependiente y el economía es mucho más sluggish y algunos de los más recientos employment data es que la empleación es falling bastante rápido en el mundo el más rápido desde el mundo así que es un diferente judgment para el Banco de England, aunque como you say hay cada expectación que se va a presumir el motivo de la razón que no es no es urgent y esto no es una de las cuatro veces a la vez que se produce un forecast y tienen un inflación report y eso tendrá que cuando se hace un gran move y esto no es una de esas meses

17:30Ed Balls: pero hay no doubt que las cosas han cambiado a lo que ha dicho y han cambiado en el mundo global y han cambiado en el mundo y han cambiado en consecuencia aquí en el UK hay un poco de historia en el Financial Times un poco de días ago que Andy Burnham y el Chancellor John Healy han sido caught por sorpresa por cómo bad el economía y el público financiero. Y, you know, I have to say, si hubiera sido escuchándo a nuestro podcast por los últimos seis meses, no hubiera sido tan sorprendido. Pero, having said that, compared a cuando Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, things are now markedly worse.

18:02Ed Balls: Y, therefore, para John Healy, el Minister de Budget Responsibility forecast for su budget en un mes de tiempo es going to be worse. Y, aunque hay un desechargo de la oposición que esto es un problema, y, look, hay un problema question in the financial markets after the LizTrust budget and there always has been for the UK about whether or not the UK will properly bear down on inflation so we have slightly higher long term interest rates but the rise in long term interest rates and therefore the debt service cost into that fiscal forecast has been happening all around the world in the last few weeks but the reality is, go back to the summer people thought the UK interest rates would be coming down ¿Por qué?

18:45Ed Balls: As you say, the economy was sluggish, slowing down. And as a consequence, the bank would be needing to give support to the economy. And that has switched. And now the inflation is the worry. Inflation, and just to put this into its wider political context, because interest rates are important for very many people who have mortgages, but the latest EDF energy company forecasts, Martin Lewis was making this point on ITV a couple of days ago, now say in January the energy price cap is likely to see a 20 % plus rise in household energy bills in January, February, March of next year. So this isn't only an interest rate squeeze and it's not only a fiscal deterioration because of higher long-term interest rates, it's also a hit to household budgets in their energy prices and so Andy Burnham came in as the Prime Minister wanting to give some support to families under pressure y ha hecho un corto en VAT en el agua ya estábamos ahora por estos eventos y estos eventos y así para John Healy este es un mucho, mucho tófer un budget incluso que lo que ha sido un fortnighto

20:03George Osborne: sí, undoubtedly y el OBR forecast es siendo hecho como hablamos esto es el momento de la vista de la vista de la economía I mean I think you I'm going to kind of challenge you a bit you say it's not a UK specific problem that's undoubtedly the case and we were just talking about the US but I think there are some sort of specific UK issues put it that way I'll come on to let me do them in kind of reverse order the first is and they're political the first is I've just been we'll come on and talk about it at a big investor conference in Canada with all the kind of big global funds the the Black Rocks and the PIMCOs of this world, all represented there.

20:44George Osborne: And, you know, I won't attribute it to any particular firm, but there is definitely a feeling, okay, so there's this new guy who's a British Prime Minister and he has not made much of an impression. I was being asked by loads of people, who is this guy who's just become Prime Minister? And he's been Prime Minister for a couple of months and he has not made any big decisions that says Britain is going to be, you know, get a grip on its finances. You know, Britain is, Andy Burnham will say, yeah, but I've reiterated my support for the fiscal rules. That has not been the message that everyone has heard.

21:16George Osborne: They have, what the message they are hearing is it's a kind of traditional left wing tax and spend government because they have picked up on his rhetoric about ending 40 years of Thatcherism and all that kind of stuff, neoliberalism. And I'm going to nationalize the water industry and so on. So that's the message He's kind of used his initial Kind of moment as Prime Minister to Communicate and then second This is much more domestic The you know he has pinned His tail to the Cost of the living donkey I mean that you know which we have talked about On this podcast for since Before he became Prime Minister don't Make the mistake that Keir Starmer made And Rishi Sunak made which is Making this the central objective of your government porque no es en charge de lo que tiene que tener control de lo que tiene.

22:09George Osborne: Y así, ¿qué es lo que está haciendo? Se ha preparado el país para un difícil budget, cost de la vida iría a la inflación, y ahora están trying, y no es tan tan tarde. Y, look, he ha establecido como el Prime Minister, y la labor es más popular que lo hacía, y ha tenido un positivo de la rating. These are not trivial things. But I don't feel he's going to use his moment, that honeymoon, the political capital he has, to prepare himself for the next phase of his premiership, which is coming, hurtling down the barrel as we speak.

22:44Ed Balls: Look, it's not too late, but I think you are right that that needs to happen now. You know the phrase, with friends like these, who needs enemies? In the summer, the speculation was that the two people advising Andy Burnham were former Treasury Minister and Financier Lord Jim O 'Neill, former Bank of England Deputy Governor and kind of economic thinker Andy Haldane. We noted on this podcast a few weeks ago that Jim O 'Neill seemed to be taking a very spiky approach to Andy Burnham, in particular in that interview in The Times. And we were certainly taken aback by what was going on. Andy Haldane, just in the last couple of days, on the Andrew Marr show on LBC, commenting on the economic reputation, I have to say standing up your analysis that you heard in Canada, this is what Andy Haldane was saying about Andy Burnham.

23:45Ultimately, it's only by taking actions that come with a political cost that you convince financial markets that you are serious. El acrílico, el fiscal acrílico de este gobierno, ha sido su voluntad y o inabilidad de cut public spending. En fin de la economía, hemos ido de la optimización de los meses de la optimización de la semana a la scepticidad de septiembre. Showa algo real. Showa que es real. You know, the market now suspects that this is a traditional tax and spend socialist government with better TikTok videos.

24:30George Osborne: Pretty damning from the guru, as you say. I mean, Andy Haldane and Jim O 'Neill were the two people held up, as you say, as kind of key economic advisors. I just find it odd. You know, it's a very, very capable team in Downing Street and the Treasury. y no supían que haber två litro de symbioama por este propósito nada çok y no supían que haberseazonador de una esp paynazmor para cómo se pre pre Timemi y desl 안에re wiretaje que A froncón manejist fonction Gardijística y al de aiko Раз awesome creo que y tampoco sab MICHAEL ilumina queYou potential explained una gran parte de la industria o lake Ganz o bits of it like Thameswater and he's backtracked on that there's been quite a u-turn on that and you know the revolutionary change after 40 years of Thatcherism is there's now going to be some sort of regional consultative boards which our friend John Cunliffe had anyway come up with as an idea for the Starmer government and that is Burnham's big water nationalisation plan so you know it's not even as if he's sort of proceeding in a different direction with confidence no importa lo que los mercados creen, no importa te arruin el consenso y challenge la orthodoxia as I say, I'm very sympathetic he had to get the Labour Party back in the game, and he had to establish his premiership, and he's got a very easy style, and he's got a positive approval rating unlike other Prime Ministers at this point having taken over the last six, not all the last five but I just feel the clock is ticking and every week goes by, and he's not making el más de la oportunidad y la capital capital que ha construido.

26:14Ed Balls: Es correcto y es por eso que este budget es muy importante. No me acuerdo con Andy Haldane y no me acuerdo con el derecho a la financiación. Y tú me acuerdo con esto y yo creo que el Consejer de Ciudad de Chancellor, Andrew Griffith, es lo que va a disagree con esto, quien fue en el Tudé Programme, creo que, bastante efectivamente, this morning. But when Andy Howland says the Achilles heel is the unwillingness or inability to cut public spending, I actually don't think that is the test financial markets are setting. I think financial markets want to know that you are going to meet your fiscal rules, that you are going to be able to continue to properly service your debt and it's not going to keep rising.

26:57Ed Balls: I think the financial markets, as opposed to conservative politicians or some business people o solo ointe may ingresar más comunidades través de la Estado. Y están vindo. Se pueden tener unaС当然ada para la plena de ateas. Creo que lo que las homen muitas sentes más conentermeXS, cero al 17 airport. Feri donde estudian las tienes pero su inmensa. Es que que convenzran la ayuda de la gente a la complicación de tomar un d pastor, y lyseranlo por laали sacra, pero tú lo hará de la manera para el marzo. Creo que están liderando la razón parcí vậy where they are under pressure. I mean, part of the problem in the run-up to this budget is that Andy Burnham and John Healy want to give a sense of hope and optimism.

27:40Ed Balls: That is the Burnham way at a time when, as we've been saying, the global economic situation is deteriorating very fast and therefore the fiscal choices they're going to have to make in the budget. And I think they need to prepare the ground for the nature of the immediate challenge in a tougher way than they're doing. Pero luego, en términos de cómo se va a esto, creo que... Y esto es mi que se ha roto recordado por la última vez. Creo que si es el mercado de financiación o si es el público, no creo que la gente no va a ir con el cambio de fiscales en este budget a lidiar con el deficit ahora, Unless you also look like you've got a long-term plan to turn the economy round and turn round some of the challenges which we are facing.

28:33Ed Balls: And that would include growth and our growth deficit. And that would include welfare spending and in particular employment and sickness benefit dependency amongst young people. I think also it would, for many voters, be about what's happening to the National Health Service and social care. And I think that for Andy Burnham and John Healy, if they're going to take action credibly in this budget to deal with the immediate fiscal challenge, which they're going to have to do and is going to be very hard, they need to show that that is part of, is a down payment on, is a road to long term improvements.

29:14Ed Balls: y, por lo que necesitan, en el crecimiento y en el crecimiento de la reforma, que están tomando un decisión que Kierström y Rachel Reeves ducked en el último año. Eso es, creo, donde Andy Haldane es correcto. Así que no ve este budget simplemente como el fiscal margen. También tiene que ser que están tomando un decisión de tomar tomando un decisión que van a tener el economía y el interés de votos a un mejor lugar. y no se sienten como si se están preparando ese gran o menos en el momento.

29:48George Osborne: Sí, bueno, lo agree. Y el hope y optimismo que se trata, que creo que es un importante parte de la política, tiene que ser un hope y optimismo basado en un plan realista. Si te dicen a la gente, yo voy a darles la esperanza porque voy a darles el squeeze y luego la inflación es irse y la energía y la energía es irse irse irse irse irse. That's hopeless That's false hope And people see through it immediately Hope and optimism is we have a grip We know what we're doing And we've got a medium term plan to get through these difficult waters And deliver a brighter future for the country I literally have just come from a presentation from Mark Carney To international investors and businesses On behalf of Canada Which has its own huge problems In terms of its trade relationship with the US But his whole message is I've got a plan y también tengo la credibilidad de deliverar.

30:44George Osborne: Y nos vamos a turnar a algunos de los desarrolladores en Canadá y su relación con el EU. Next.

30:56Hay momentos que revelan quién somos y quién somos y quién somos. Para los que nos han convertido, such momentos call for a vehículo de igual distinto. Dynamic by design, uncompromising y ejecución, la Range Rover Sport fue diseñada para aquellos que demandan el mundo y posen la convicción para claimarlo. Cuando tu tiempo para lead arrives, necesitas un vehículo que se levanta para cumplir. La Range Rover Sport. Exclús de oferta es available ahora. Explore further at rangerover.com. Más decisiones de millió-definidad sobre tus bancos? Necesitas necesitas para conseguir eso. Believe in Banking es el podcast para líderes balanceando digital investment con la realidad que branches still drive growth.

31:41Expert conversations on branch strategy, customer experience, and what actually moves the needle. Designed to empower your decisions. From Adrenaline. Search Believe in Banking and listen now. Hi, this is Mark Bittman from the podcast Food with Mark Bittman. I've been writing about food and restaurants for almost 50 years. My whole career, really. And what I know es que los buenos restaurantes todos tienen algo en común. Están busy. Genuinely, chaotically busy. Y en el pasado, los mejores de ellos han empezado a hacer que es fácil. ¿Y por qué? Porque están en la tecnología de Toast. Toast. Es construido para restaurant owners que entienden que Toast.

32:27Los tools de la línea de mover y que sus clientes son happy con menos mistakes y hiccups en ordering y paying. Para los owners, que se transforma en un trabajo de la vida. Para aprender más, head a toasttab.com. That's T-O-A-S-T-T-A-B, toasttab.com. Toast, built for busy.

32:52Ed Balls: So, welcome back. George has just flown in from Canada, where he's been at a big, I think, Canadian economic conference over there, talking about AI, pero creo que el contexto es más grande. ¿Qué es el Kani económico mensaje en Canadá? Y cómo es lo que está haciendo, este diálogo con la Unión Europea, cómo está playing into su política estratégica?

33:19George Osborne: Así que yo creo que es un contexto aquí. Cuando yo y yo eran activos en política y en el Cabinete, los países que se han hecho de la inversión, days where they would assemble the world's kind of banks and big funds would be developing world countries so countries like i remember the you know chile in south america would host a day in london where it would try and convince people that um it's got a good plan for the future you would never have got a g7 economy doing an investor day back then a big economy big western economy Y yet ahora, esto ha become muy mucho la fashion. Así que esto fue Canadá su primer invester día, y Alemania ha tenido un en un par de meses de tiempo.

34:03George Osborne: Y tal vez que dice algo sobre el mundo, que creo que realmente hay que convirtir a la economía de la economía. Y no se puede tomar eso por granted. Así que es lo que...

34:13Ed Balls: Porque el motivo de lo que hubiera hecho antes, era lo que fue lo que fue hecho por Argentina, o Brasil, o Turquía. Normally, if you are a country which has had a big problem, a crisis, you're emerging out of it and you're wanting to persuade investors to give us a new look, then that's when you do these kind of investor roadshows. In my time in the Treasury, we wouldn't have done it because it would have smacked of worry and a lack of confidence.

34:40George Osborne: Right. Absolutely. But the world has changed. So this was Canada's first investor day and there was a big gala dinner in the art museum in Ontario. y un día de conferencia y todo el canadien cabaret se han reunido en un parado un observación primero, Kani es completamente en charge he es un político unbelievably strong segundo, he made an interest en la conferencia y la conferencia Stephen Harper, el primer conservative de la primera de Canada fue present y Mark made lots of references so he ha formado un alliance con el primer conservative Harper and that's people were observing to me completely squeezed out the current conservative opposition in Canada who've kind of got nowhere to go.

35:26George Osborne: It's a good example of kind of big tent politics. There's also you know Canada feels very directly under threat from Donald Trump. It's the reason Carney was chosen as Prime Minister and you just see a kind of much more overt display of Canadian patriotism everywhere. You know the kind of flags are, the Canadian flag is in lots of shop windows and so on. Y eso fue el contexto de esta conferencia. Y creo que si hubiera tomado la positiva, Mark Carney es able a articulate un plan muy claro que es un plan que es todo sobre seguridad y independencia y nuevas acciones en el mundo. Y segundo, la gente cree que tiene el capital para que el plan se hagan y hay un gran gran proyecto que se ha promocionado.

36:11George Osborne: El guerrilla en la sala es Donald Trump y el tarif war y el collapse de los Estados Unidos-Canadien de la trade talks, hay un asumption que es todo que se resolviendo en el próximo de meses y es un poco de un dance. People explica que los tarifes no se aplican a los que se aplican entre los dos países. Pero es definitivamente como el backdrop de la whole thing. Pero en algunos ways, Carney is both a product and a beneficiary of a sense of crisis which enables him to galvanize the government and the political system to deliver action, which I don't feel there is yet in most European economies. There's not that kind of sense of crisis and therefore everyone's got to pull together and do some difficult decisions.

37:04George Osborne: And talking of difficult decisions, and it's just the beginning, I mean, quite an audacious and bold move, to put it mildly, a sugerir que Canadá se convirtió en el asociado de la Unión Europea y él fue, Marc, después de este evento a escuchar Ursula von der Leyen, el presidente de la Unión Europea, le dar la equivalent de la Unión Europea en el que se hizo un acuerdo de la surprise anunciación. Las estaciones no han dado much notice en advance y, en el momento de hacer este podcast, él está addressing el Parlamento Europea. Así que, no sé, hay muchas cosas, ¿qué es lo que se llama? de la EU, ¿qué es lo que significa?

37:42George Osborne: Es un montón de comentario, pero es un muy bold y sorprendente, ¿no?

37:48Ed Balls: Así, me déjame un interpretación, y creo que es un buen político para Mark Carney, pero el Financial Times reports que el EU rebufs Mark Carney's única alliance con Canadá, todos los off-the-record capital commentadores de las nationales, por la agua de agua, Germany, Mertz's spokesman Quite dismissive As you say the European Commission Championing it, other member states A bit more cautious And you can sort of understand why In European political terms Because if you are France or Germany What you are most worried about Isn't Donald Trump And certainly not Mark Carney's Relationship with Donald Trump or Canada's What you're worried about is what's happening In domestic German politics with the AFD o en French politics con el ralegamiento.

38:40Ed Balls: Y el único que no quiero hacer es dar una idea que hay una manera de cambiar tu relación con la Unión con la Unión y tener un poco más distante relación, un asociado-membership type de relación. Es por eso que siempre han sido siempre cautious de re-ignitar la relación de la Unión de la Unión y que es que es por eso que se get un poco de pushback. Pero Mark Carney no mind porque el realidad es que él Look, he knows economically, we know him really well, he will know this. Economically, this doesn't make a lot of sense for Canada, certainly vis-a-vis the United States. I mean, the United States is by far their biggest trade partner.

39:20Ed Balls: I mean, two-thirds of Canadian trade, EU trade, less than 10%. There's no way that an agreement with the European Union can compensate. So what matters is what happens with America. pero en el otro lado, simplemente taking on Donald Trump en un fight es bastante negativo. Lo que necesitas es un alternativo y esto es un smart political alternativo para empezar este conversación y para fillar espacio en el próximo... ¿Es su tiempo en perspectiva el próximo dos años hasta el presidente de la presidencia o es el próximo tres meses hasta Donald Trump lo hace badly en el midterms y la política de los Estados Unidos change?

39:57Ed Balls: Pero, por lo tanto, es un poco como... Y no me lo he de hecho en su parte de Mark. pero es un poco como el último de la conservación de la conservación.

40:06George Osborne: Él se escucha a este podcast, Ed. Antes de abrir tu boca, él se escucha a este podcast.

40:12Ed Balls: Bueno, es un poco como la conservación de la conservación de la conservación de Rwanda. Usted sabe que no es no funcionará, pero necesitas un alternativo en la mesa. Si Mark y Canadá se están en un mejor y económico relaciones con la Unión Europea, es un buen tema, pero no es incommensurante con el desafío económico con los Estados Unidos. Pero lo que estoy diciendo es que incluso si el europeo europeo endraje siendo pushing back, y no hay mucha mucha nueva sustancia en el table, y el existente canadien y europeo económico negociaciones han tenido un montón de problemas dentro de ellos, pero creo que no se puede que sea un buen canadien, en statesman-like politics.

41:01Ed Balls: Y si lo que el Unión no dice no, entonces todo funciona a su advantage.

41:06George Osborne: Sí. Creo que eres un poco harte porque, primero, creo que ha tenido un hecho de la teoría de cómo países como Canadá, y el U.K., necesitan operar en el mundo en el que el U.S. ha convertido en un poco más relativo. Y ellos necesitan formar nuevas y, además, de su voz de Davos, sobre la medlema de powers. Pero, Pero, como lo que decía, él es able a articulate un plan económico, él es able a articulate un plan de foreign policy. Si te preguntan si se trata, ¿qué es britán's foreign policy? No es tan claro. ¿Qué es Canadá's foreign policy? Para forzar alliances entre los medios de la parte. Eso es su template.

41:45George Osborne: Así que es el primer punto. Según, hay que haber muy sustancial beneficios para Canadá en una relación con el E.U. Ahora, tú eres right, es desgazado por el desafío de la U.S., pero este es al menos un plan B, talking about using the... Coming back to Martin Wolf, you know, you're building some resilience and there's some substance to it. He's joined the EU's defence procurement plan. It's the only non-European country, non-EU country to do that. So there's something real there. And I think there's an interesting challenge to the EU, which is, well, what exactly is your plan para lidar con países en su perifera, ¿está usted a insistir en full EU membership, a su punto de vista?

42:33George Osborne: ¿Está usted a stick con su orthodoxy, que es que tú eres en o tú eres en o tú eres? ¿O no es un proyecto de la idea que Macron ha creado de una especie de un político de la política, es lo que se llama? ¿Es posible que haya una especie de memoria de la EU? Y no es solo un solución o un oportunidad para un relación con Canadá, pero también es un potencial solución para lo que se hace con el UK en el medio termo y otros países como la Ukraine, que es un gran desafío. ¿Cómo se hace que la Ukraine en? ¿Cómo se hace que la EU? ¿Hasta esta conflicto? Así que, ¿no? ¿Cómo se hace que Ursula von der Leyen es un poco ahead de la rather narrow thinking en la capitals?

43:15George Osborne: ¿Es hora de hacer que la EU se hace un gran moves en el mundo?

43:18Ed Balls: El que es lo que no me importa, lo que estoy diciendo es que Mark Cardi sabe que no se solvieron his economic problem and he doesn't really mind if the French and Germans are a bit gnarky about it because actually it's good politics but if it leads to broader alliances that's a good thing although what he really wants is China and America to be part of that as well because a multilateral trading system is better than something which is more fragmented and if it is going to fragment and you're Canadian you don't really want to have America in a different fragment from you but Pero, you know, I don't need to criticise him.

43:55Ed Balls: I'm actually, you know, I think if you're a British official, you'd probably say it's guff, but it's politically smart guff. And you may be right to say that is too cynical. But actually, you know, Mark Carney's main task is to put pressure on Donald Trump and then also to win his next election. And all of this helps with that. I think also it puts a bit of pressure on Andy Burnham and the British government, don't you think?

44:25George Osborne: Yes, well, of course, as part of the trip to Europe this week and the investment conference at the beginning of the week, Mark went to Everton, didn't he, with Andy Burnham? They are both Evertonian fans. I mean, it's a bit more, I'm not entirely sure why Mark can't support Everton. I know where Andy Burnham does because he's a Catholic who comes from Liverpool. pero no es no exactamente obvio ¿por qué ¿por qué ¿por qué ¿por qué se fue

44:51Ed Balls: given a blue scarf y ¿por qué ¿por qué se Chelsea ¿por qué

44:55George Osborne: no ¿por qué no se ¿por qué ¿por qué

45:02Ed Balls: David Cameron y West Ham? Por

45:04George Osborne: ¿por qué se note en passing que Chelsea has sorted out its leadership issues this week ¿por qué went to the game anyway thankfully Everton beat Wolves and I thought that was a good bit de un poco de retail política. Una buena manera para que ellos se... Ellos conocen los otros, porque, de acuerdo, Mark era el presidente de la Bank de England cuando Andy era el mayor de Greater Manchester, y así que ellos conocen. Aquí es el que se habla de hablar.

45:26Ed Balls: Mark, yo creo que se habla de un montón de personas en decir que eres un gran progresista con quien nos share so many valores, pero también con quien nos share a shared oportunidad en defensa cooperación, en trade, y hay Hay positivas en esa dirección recientemente entre Estados Unidos y Canadá en AI, que estoy seguro que vamos a discutir. Y es muy bueno para mí que pienso que voy a tener alguien que se habla y commiserate sobre Everton en un G7, que es un gran resultado. Claro, lo importante es que el significante es que Andy Burnham no referencia el canadian-eu. y eso es porque creo que lo hace que el problema es que la realidad es la canadien y european relación es es no deep y por lo que estas conversaciones son fácil pero no es tan claro como he dicho la relación es mucho deeper y lo que es ya el modelo de la relación de la British-European es mucho más que nada que Canadá o la EU ha o no y el gobierno quiere si quieren ir más así que están bien beyond donde Canadá es pero este lenguaje de la asociación de la membership es politicamente es bolder y para Andy Burnham quien no va a querer que sea que sea que sea que sea que sea que sea o que sea que sea que sea que sea o que sea que sea que sea que sea the European Parliament about associate membership of Britain to the European Union you know it it just makes the domestic politics a little bit more complicated even though as I said the reality is quite different from the rhetoric.

47:16George Osborne: Yeah but then you know just like we were saying a moment ago that the Burnham government has not been able to articulate a kind of economic plan I don't think it's at the moment able to articulate a sort of broader foreign policy and engagement el Europa. En el gobierno de la política, el gobierno de la política es el significativo que discutimos last week sobre Gaza y el relación con Israel. Pero, beyond that, ¿qué es el Burnham view de la vida? ¿Qué es Burnham's view de la política de la vida? ¿Qué es la relación en la vida? ¿Qué es la relación con la Unión Europea? He fue obviamente un Remainer que, a un momento, dijo que la región de la EU.

47:55George Osborne: Pero no hemos escuchado que se llamó que se llamó y no sé que no. Y creo que no quiere a particular foreign policy prime minister, although prime ministers often say that, and then get dragged into foreign policy. Whereas I think Mark loves being the kind of guy coming up with a thing that the G7 are going to discuss. His career was as an international diplomat before he became a central banker. So, you know, in some ways what Mark Carney is doing is showing, Remember, Mark Carney is a progressive centre-left politician. Mark Carney is showing how on the economy and on foreign policy, you can come up with an intellectually robust and interesting argument within that framework.

48:42George Osborne: And I would say the Labour government, since it was elected two years ago under Keir Starmer and now under Andy Burnham, has not yet been able to do the same here in Britain. So let us do a thought experiment.

48:55Ed Balls: Si viste el Wolves, Everton y Everton no score hasta el 80 minuto, hay muchas veces en la game que se puede hablar de otras cosas. Y sabemos que Mark Carney likes a hablar de política y strategy y probablemente han tenido este conversación con Keir Starmer muy difícil. Pero él conoce Britain muy bien. Y él es un centro-left político ahora. Así que él está con Andy Burnham. Y Andy Burnham says, Mark, you've been there for the last year and you're doing all this stuff. What lesson should I draw from what you're doing about how I should go about this with Trump and with Europe and on the economy?

49:38Ed Balls: What do you think Mark Carney, as I said, in one of those kind of long dull bits of Everton football, what would he say?

49:44George Osborne: You've got to be able to articulate a plan And for the plan to be credible It has to be rooted in some kind of intellectual Foundations I mean otherwise you don't really You're all at sea in politics aren't you I mean otherwise you really are Buffeted around by the decision of the Federal Reserve Or what we're going to come on to it What some AI chief says You've got to have some Kind of operating framework That people can understand and that your decisions Are then kind of located within it Y, you know, Keir Starmer was not able to do that for Labour and at the moment Andy Burnham has not yet done it for Labour but he's got an opportunity to do so.

50:23Ed Balls: See, I agree with that and I actually think in a way linking up our first two conversations in order to deal with the immediate challenges on the economy, Andy Burnham and John Healy need to tell a bigger story about how they see the future of the British economy but also the tough choices within that y, por lo que se trata de la política de Donald Trump y de la guerra de Andy Burnham y de la guerra de complejas negociones en la guerra de la Unión, hay que tener una visión sobre la guerra de la guerra de la guerra. Necesitamos un visione de la guerra de la guerra. Y Mark Carney ha set out a hacer eso para Canadá.

51:05Ed Balls: Y, por lo que no, no hemos tenido un presidente que ha hecho el mismo que ha hecho por un tiempo.

51:10George Osborne: Sí, creo. I agree. Y eso es lo que viene. La meeting con el presidente de la China es probablemente un mayor meeting que Donald Trump es meeting con Andy Burnham. Pero Burnham es meeting Trump en la margen de lo que se llama UNGA, la General Assembly Week en Nueva York para la Unión. Pero ha avoided, como habló de la semana, flying a Washington y haciendo la Oval Office. Es probablemente más fácil de hacer en la margen de UNGA.

51:37Ed Balls: Ahora, part de la conversación next week será sobre AI y también social media We had Lisa Nandy en nuestro programa en Good Morning Britain en el día de la semana donde Politico reportó que British government officials habían sido hauled into la American embassy para ser dressed down porque de social media regulation aquí en el UK y el online safety bill y el hecho de que esto era damaging American companies Lisa Nandy gave a much tougher rebuff to the Trump administration on both AI regulation and on social media regulation than we've seen from, I think, any minister in the last couple of years before the Andy Burnham government.

52:21Ed Balls: So interesting to know whether that's going to be a straw in the wind. But we're going to take a break and then we're going to have a final talk about what's happening in the AI and regulatory world next.

53:00La Rangerova Sport Exclusive offers available now Explore further at Range Rover dot com.

53:34Hablemos de lo que no se habla. Available by prescription only.

54:03That's why I rely on AT &T Business. They keep your connectivity reliable so you have one less thing to worry about. Powered by AT &T Business. Built to work. Get AT &T Business at business.att.com.

54:20George Osborne: Welcome back. So up in Scotland, in Dumfries House, which is owned by King Charles, there is a conference happening at the moment on the future of AI regulation, que es hostil por el king y Jensen Huang, el founder y CEO de NVIDIA, el mundo más valioso y el de la empresa, y Demis Hassavis es ahí, y el director de la empresa de OpenAI y el director de la empresa de Antropica. Es un versión de lo que el pope ha sido hostil por el head de la propia iglesia, el king. Y nos muestra que todos están en el acto de cómo debería ser regulado. y creo que ha venido a la forma en la última semana o dos todo lo que ha quedado recientemente cuando uno de Anthropix emploióis porque pensó que no solo que la compañía pero generalmente la industria no tomó la seguridad seriously enough Here's Jacob Coxon explaining his decision y también también y también también como otros líderes en AI responden es plausible que en seis meses la models pose la risca de taking over el mundo.

55:30La AIs. Es puede ser longer. Es puede ser dos, tres años. Pero definitivamente en la Slack, no están paniquiendo sobre los currentos AIs, pero estamos discutiendo, ¿qué es la vida de los que se ve en dos años? Este es el juego. Estos son crucial, high-stakes decisions que se han hecho por la gente en un privado de empresa. Y, you know, la gente se ha scared, porque, como se debería, cuando están hablando de la posibilidad de humanidad. Es no tan tarde y no creo que estamos todavía en este máximo danger zone, pero estamos cerca de que estamos tomando esto seriously y tener una situación nacional, public conversación sobre esto.

56:10Estamos en el centro de un nuevo silico que no se designa a competir con nosotros no importa cuánto importa la humanidad y nos gusta, que es, creo, Anthropik's intención. Creo que es equivocada y misguida, pero tenemos que empíricamente testar. Creo que es unalcable de tomar un 10 % chance de matar a la gente por el fin de la década, obviamente. Creo que la gente que trabaja en estos esfuerzos tienen un gran valor y capacidad de impactar lo que ocurre aquí. We have been taking a number of actions. We've reached this new capability level to ensure that we do not take a risk on behalf of humanity like that.

56:53And I don't think anybody else should either.

56:56Ed Balls: That was the ex-Anthropic employee, Jacob Coxon, one of Anthropics co-founders, Jack Clark, Microsoft's AI CEO, Mustafa Suleiman, and your boss, George Sam Altman. And I mean, it has been a very kind of odd couple of weeks. I mean, the idea that potentially 10 % of humanity might be wiped out in the next year, let alone human extinction. I mean, these are not idle threats.

57:26George Osborne: I think they're saying there's a 10 % chance of 100 % of humanity being wiped out this year.

57:31Ed Balls: Oh, I see. So it's all of humanity, not just 10 % of humanity.

57:34George Osborne: I'm not saying I agree with this at all. pero...

57:37Ed Balls: We know you're working in a leadership way with OpenAI. Also Matt Clifford has gone off to work for Anthropic as their head of global affairs. This is the guy who was the senior advisor to Rishi Sunak behind the AI Summit. We actually spoke to him on this podcast. I mean, I think that reflects the reality that I'm not sure that these these AI leaders are necessarily the right people to communicate the AI message. It was all quite messy, isn't it? The public opinion is rather turning against AI at the moment because we're all being told that the planet might be about to be wiped out and it doesn't feel as though I mean, tell me if I'm wrong I'm not totally sure what the AI industry is trying to communicate at the moment.

58:30George Osborne: Well, I think that there's an underlying truth here, which is this technology is developing at a very very rapid pace so you know on all sorts of measures this is the kind of fasting develop fastest developing technology we've ever seen in kind of human history and um you know i can i can attest for this working at open ai when i joined the company at the beginning of the year compared to now you know just the power of the products the power of the models is is like vastly greater and that continues to accelerate because of you know we're on the cusp of this thing called recursive self-improvement where the AI basically improves itself.

59:04George Osborne: So I think there's underlying huge kind of technological developments, that's the first thing. Second, that has led to certain incidents which the companies have reported of kind of things going wrong and so therefore people are now being confronted with kind of real world cases de AI lo que es no supuestamente hacer y eso creo que todo eso le lleva a la legítima conversación y yo quiero decir que al mismo tiempo la gente de la gente de la gente de la gente de la gente de la gente es rápidamente accelerating es siendo adoptado into companies y países y gente usa mucho más en sus vidas incluso si no no es consciente de eso es el tipo de tecnología behind a lot de cosas que la gente están haciendo ahora todo eso que es el caso y luego que le lleva a esta cuestión de lo que exactamente ¿cuál es este tecnología y cómo regulamos y cómo regulamos y yo y yo lo que lo que lo describe como la oposición en dos tres oposición de oposición de oposición de la en particular y las empresas están haciendo big efforts para reassure local communities sobre that hay entonces a broader concern que ¿qué es lo going to mean for my job and my children's jobs in the future which is essentially not um you know unknowable because you can't predict the future but there's a lot of conversation is this actually going to increase employment or reduce employment is it going to increase economic wealth and how is that wealth going to be spread and then third there is this kind of existential thing which is are the robots going to take over and is the and so i think if you just you know the ai opposition can be kind of broken down into different things all of which can be sort of separately addressed I think the very particular conversation right now is should governments regulate AI?

1:00:53George Osborne: Because essentially, although AI is covered by all sorts of other regulations that exist, there already are laws about medical advice, financial advice, legal advice and so on. Should there be new laws that cover AI? And in particular, in the US, should there be laws? Because most of these companies are American companies. There's a whole separate conversation about China and the competition with China. Y si quieren un idea de lo que la administración de los Estados Unidos es la respuesta a la industria de la industria, diciendo que le gustaría ser regulado, porque eso es lo que ha pasado en las últimas semanas.

1:01:26George Osborne: La industria ha venido y ha venido, OpenAI y Anthropik, ha dicho que le welcome regulación. Esto fue Donald Trump su respuesta. Y estoy diciendo que es todo un hoax. La data centros son great y hacen que los hombres y hacen que los estados se vuelven. Y es el oil de los próximos 20, 25 años. es más grande que la internet y la AI, mucho más so. Y están jugando en la mano de la gente que no quieren verlo. Y que puede ser política, que puede ser China. Y no vamos a dejar que eso suceda. Es un hoax. You're right, no vamos a dejar que eso suceda, sir. No, no vamos a dejar que eso suceda. La robots no van a ser tomando el mundo, y eso no va a dejar que suceda.

1:02:13George Osborne: So just for context, people who haven't seen this, Jensen Huang, who I mentioned earlier and is currently with the King and the CEO of NVIDIA, he's at a conference. He's on stage. He's talking to an audience. And while he's talking, his phone rings and it's Donald Trump. And instead of saying, Mr. President, can I call you back or leave the stage and say, I've got to take a call from the president. He literally puts the phone to the microphone he's got. And that's Donald Trump broadcasting for this conference. por su phone call. Y creo que es interesante. Primero, como siempre con Donald Trump, si es abstracto de la lengua, hay algunas cosas que están que son claramente uppermost en los políticos de los políticos.

1:02:59George Osborne: Uno es, este es un muy, muy poderoso tecnología, en la defensa y seguridad y si se stopla o reguló demasiado demasiado, then you potentially are giving a massive advantage to your geopolitical rival, China. And second, he's right that there is huge potential for this technology to benefit the economy. It's already beginning to show up in some of the economic numbers. Indeed, there's some evidence it's starting to show up in the UK's economic numbers. And it's a potentially new form of wealth. So I think before you get into the kind of things that can go wrong, he's pointing out the things that can go right and then there's this kind of central challenge for policymakers which is, and remember these firms of which I'm an example do have a lot of people thinking quite deeply about how to best create a legal framework around this new technology and it does create, it's a classic challenge of like ¿Cómo se reguló la innovación?

1:04:07George Osborne: ¿Cómo se los países que no son tan poderoso como los Estados Unidos tienen un rol y un say en todo esto? Y no hay simple answers. Si hay simple answers, se hubiera ya había sido. Pero lo que es cierto es que en los últimos meses, las empresas han todo llegado a un poco de competitividad. Y hay un gran industria y hay un gran personal rivales. Pero ellos han todo llegado y han dicho, o menos todos, would welcome regulation and we all think that the development of the new technology needs to be not paused or stopped but paced.

1:04:38Ed Balls: It's so hard when you're not an expert to understand what this is really all about and on one level there'll be some people who think oh my god this is what's going to happen we're all going to die. Other people will be thinking this is all sci-fi rubbish and it's all got up by these companies who want actually to have a regulation which allows them to be protected and their incumbency to be guaranteed and to keep out the companies or the countries which might challenge their hegemony and their power and their money but it's probably the truth is probably somewhere in the middle which is that we're not going to be wiped out but bad events could occur and there have been some worrying signs and it's not the first time we've had these kind of challenges in the world and if you think of the development of nuclear weapons.

1:05:27Ed Balls: Yvette made a reference to this in a foreign policy essay she did in the summer where she pointed to Hiroshima and how that changed the subsequent kind of international government engagement. And when you listen to Donald Trump, it's like he doesn't want regulation and it's all about a fight with China. Actually, the history of the last decades is that China has no más interés en la humanidad siendo blown up o suficientemente de la main trading partners siendo wiped out o la global economía siendo blighted como el resto de nosotros y que si es en nuclear proliferación o nuclear weapons o nuclear testing o también más más de un trade la China ha sido willing a ser parte de ese de ese grupo multilateral y Donald Trump may not want it pero realmente el resto de nosotros Rishi Sunak que mencioné earlier had a piece in the Sunday Times saying that that is our priority that kind of global regulatory process but Anthropic was willing to share its model with the US government not the British government and they're probably not going to collaborate unless they're required to through international treaties so regardless of Donald Trump and his phone calls into conferences don't we need some kind of global regulatory process which involves China rather than puts them on the outside.

1:06:55Ed Balls: If I was a British government, I'd be wanting to push that agenda forward, but there seems to be a reluctance to do so.

1:07:02George Osborne: Yeah, look, I mean, you're right that in the past, the world has found a way to kind of reach global agreements, but often after catastrophes like Hiroshima. So you obviously, I mean, Hiroshima obviously used to end a war. so I think I think let's try and abstract, here are some basic rules we've learnt over the last 100 years first of all you absolutely need to engage with the US after the First World War the United States did not ratify the League of Nations and the United States had to be central to the building of the post-war Second World War architecture of the United Nations the IMF and so on it's no good the rest of the world saying ignore the United States we're going to go and come up with some ideas and rules you've got the United States is a critical player and these days so is China.

1:07:54George Osborne: Second fundamentally the rest of the world is not going to be at the heart of that negotiation that has got to be the United States and China trying to come to some kind of accommodation and there are you know you can look at the US and the Soviet Union coming to agreements on nuclear test bans and limiting the total number of nuclear weapons and controlling the spread of that technology to other So there is some, you know, the onus is on the US and China, and there's some evidence that they might discuss it and start to talk about it. But that doesn't mean there's no role for everyone else. And I think actually, you know, I've been pretty critical of some elements of the Sunak government.

1:08:34George Osborne: But I have said, you know, what Rishi Sunak did on AI was really impressive. He did put the UK into a leadership role. He did create a safety institute, which became a model for others to copy. And he set up the, you know, the rhythm of Global AI Summit. What is a shame is I feel that that's been kind of dropped a bit. And there's not much intellectual curiosity or kind of thought leadership on AI at the moment coming from the British government. And as you say, it was rather disappointing, wasn't it? The Anthropic didn't even submit their model to the very institution that Rishi Sunak had created.

1:09:10George Osborne: pero esto es como el carny episodio interesante Mark Carney ha estado into the space y said he es proposing something called the Technology Stability Board which is based on something called the Financial Stability Board which he used to chair and which brings countries together helping regulate financial systems George

1:09:32Ed Balls: originally proposed by E. Balls in 1998 after the LTE TCM and the wider crunch of that time. So it is not impossible for Britain to make proposals which end up becoming global institutions and we can do it again.

1:09:51George Osborne: That is exactly my point and Britain can play a leadership role in creating the architecture that sits behind fundamentally decisions that the US is going to take and the US and China but then you create the and you can provide the thought leadership and without being too grand about it You can be the kind of John Maynard Keynes to the United States. You can be the Brits at Bretton Woods. You're not the main decision maker, but you're providing the kind of intellectual thought leadership.

1:10:19Ed Balls: And you know really well, the Americans always complain when you propose it. And they're always grumpy about trying to set it up. But in the end, if it's a good idea, they'll come to it. And the G20 is another good example of that. So it is not impossible for countries other than the US and China to drive the agenda, even accepting the realpolitik that you're pointing out.

1:10:45George Osborne: So we are definitely going to speak about this subject again. This is not the last word.

1:10:50Ed Balls: Well, George, unless we're all wiped out in the next week.

1:10:55George Osborne: I think that's kind of unlikely, to be honest. But you never know.

1:11:00Ed Balls: There's a 90 % chance we'll get to Christmas.

1:11:02George Osborne: I think there's a better than 90 % chance. 100 % chance we're going to get to Christmas and there's 100 % chance that this podcast will get to Christmas so thank you for listening to this week lots to discuss, lots of themes we're going to pick up as we go forward and we've got of course that budget coming up make sure you check out how you can become a kitchen cabinet or goals subscriber, get access to our EMQs early, all the other perks of getting even more involved with this podcast, becoming a super fan de la podcast.

1:11:34Ed Balls: Y el interesante es que hemos tenido una buena respuesta a nuestros episodios que nos han llegado a un día en el día de la noche en YouTube y a gente que veía en televisión y en video que estamos ahora haciendo lo mismo para EMQs as well. So EMQs es que se move onto video y YouTube rather than just audio y está still coming out on Monday Friday for our Gold Subscribes and Kitchen Cabinet members y you can send in your questions as always to questions at politicalcurrency.co.uk

1:12:07George Osborne: I can just hear my kids starting to play the piano next door, the newly arrived piano, if you can hear the

1:12:13Ed Balls: you can hear you will find out in the next few minutes is your son a genius

1:12:19George Osborne: yeah, he's not back from school yet so we'll find out in a couple of hours but anyway while we enjoy, we're being serenaded out, thank you for listening and we'll see you on Monday

1:12:31Ed Balls: see you then

1:12:40¡Gracias por ver el video!

1:13:22I'm Jake Stauk, co-founder and CEO of Servil. We built Servil to automate the IT work that slows companies down. ¡Suscríbete al canal!

1:13:59Powering the entire company. This is a new way to run IT. We guarantee you'll automate 50 % of all tickets and we'll prove it to you in a free 4-week pilot. Go to serval.com slash tickets. That's S-E-R-V-A-L dot com slash tickets.

1:14:22Is there anything better than your team bringing home a W? How about a personal W for your health? Si eres 45 o más o menos y atrecer a la average, es hora de screenar para colon cancer. Ahora el número uno cancer killer de los niños de 50 en los Estados Unidos. Es fácil de ponerlo cuando la screening es un hassle, pero Cologuard Plus hace que es simple. Es no invasivo, requiere no preparación, puede completar a casa en aproximadamente 15 minutos y es 95 % efectivo. Talk a tu médico o request Cologuard Plus online, Rx only.