Inside the British Museum’s Bayeux Tapestry Coup

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2:02George Osborne: Find more at Kohler.com.

2:24George Osborne: This is Political Currency.

2:26Ed Balls: with Ed Balls and George Osborne.

2:37Ed Balls: So we are back after our summer break, our summer interviews, but not in Hoxton in our normal studio. We are here at the British Museum. Very exciting. We're getting in before pretty much everybody else to see the Bayer Tapestry being unveiled. Well, I've got to say, George, what's gone on you told me back in july we were going to be first but we seem to have been scooped by the king the president of france the prime minister a tech boss most importantly nick

3:08George Osborne: robinson was here this morning with the today program what's happened well they're the aristocracy of the country nick robinson and go and the king and prime minister you know you've got to have every year we have a different prime minister coming around the british museum so you're

3:20Ed Balls: saying political currency we the people we are finally here to see see what's going on we've got

3:26George Osborne: a million people coming after us okay and we're here and um while we're broadcasting they're going to be unveiling behind us the tapestry so that's all very exciting and if you're listening to this

3:35Ed Balls: on your normal podcast platform go to youtube and there you can see it in pictures as well as sound and actually see the tapestry and i've got to say it is amazing and beautiful so take a look on tube anyway it's good to see you look good after the summer thank you very much indeed so first of all we're going to talk about um the bayard tapestry yes and we've got if you're wondering who

3:58George Osborne: this guy is in a norwich football strip this is michael lewis who is the world expert on the best tapestry he's a curator here at the british museum and we're going to be talking to michael about all of that is it a qualification to be a norwich fan to be a curator i think so

4:11Ed Balls: probably shouldn't it that's very good then we're going to move on to in our second item talk about Andy Burnham, his unfolding prime ministership. He's had his big outings for the first time in the House of Commons this week. And we're going to talk about how it's going, but also what are the big challenges he's going to face in the coming months. Yeah.

4:31George Osborne: And then how are the other parties reacting? That's going to be our third segment. We're going to look at the Tory shadow cabinet reshuffle. Are the Greens going to put up in Hobon and St Pancras? We're in the constituency right now. and what's happening with the Reform Conference this weekend. So lots to talk about.

4:47Ed Balls: We're going to start, of course, here at the British Museum by talking about this tapestry. And George, on the Today programme this morning, you said that this was a huge cultural moment and you said probably the biggest event since the Tutankhamen exhibition in the 1970s, which I'm not sure if you can remember. I can remember being in primary school. The national excitement, people getting in cars from Norwich or as we were all around the country to come to see this amazing exhibition. The same thing is going to be happening over the next year. But the achievement and the political challenge of having this tapestry from France come to Britain, how has it been pulled off?

5:29George Osborne: Well, I think this is probably the most significant loan since Tutankhamun. It's a huge act of generosity from the French state because they're entrusting one of their national treasures. It wouldn't have happened without President Macron. I mean, lots of people are involved in this and, you know, I should credit some of the prime ministers involved like Theresa May and Keir Starmer. But there's no doubt it would not have happened if not just any French president, but this French president hadn't overridden all the objections. But we've got Michael here. He was sort of at the beginning of the story, which was back in kind of 2013, 14.

6:01George Osborne: It was fundamentally the tapestry is here because the museum in Bayeux is being renovated, isn't it? Yeah, that's right. I mean, so basically, I was asked to join the scientific committee of Bayer Museum, looking to redisplay and reinterpret the tapestry in a different way. And it's fairly clear straight on that this museum was going to have to be closed for a period of time. And so I did sort of say, well, you know, maybe it could be possible for it to come to the UK. So it's your idea. Well, I feel it is, to be honest. But anyway, no, but obviously, as you say, the political, you know, will of Macron to make this happen has been so fundamentally important because there was conversations I was having with my French colleagues, you know, kind of way back, really.

6:38And yeah, this kind of provided motivation for the whole thing to happen.

6:42George Osborne: Now, listen, while you're talking right behind you, the team of the British Museum are taking the covers off the tapestry, literally as we're talking. And we're very restricted, aren't we, Michael, in basically the number of hours it can be exposed to the light. But even so, we're going to get a million people through and a load of school kids. We had some school kids from Hastings this morning already.

7:03Ed Balls: The operation to bring something so old and so valuable and so sensitive all the way to the UK. I mean, it would have been easier to put it into a warehouse in Bayeux, presumably. I mean, the insurance, but also the logistical challenge. I mean, I've been teasing George about this for the last few months, but how nervous were you, given it was your idea, if it all goes wrong? Well, now we're in trouble now, aren't we? Yeah, I mean, obviously, it was transported. It transported really well to get here. And the condition checkings showed that it happened, you know, in a marvellous way. But, I mean, it was obviously quite nerve-wracking.

7:39I mean, the French people, in terms of working out how to take the tapestry off display and put it into storage, they'd obviously gone a big way in working out how that logistically could happen. So the challenge then was to bring it over this side of the channel. And there was always a discussion about the distance. And there was all of this testing in terms of the vibrations of that journey. And there was various tests to make sure that happened. But the actual operation here in this room, there's a big space behind us that you can't see that was needed to physically take the tapestry out of its crate, out of this paravent, this kind of folded, concertina-like thing, and then put on display.

8:15I mean, that took about 18 hours and involved about 100 people. So it was a massive operation. And there's obviously a lot of planning before that and then on the day as well. And that will have to be reversed, obviously, to go back to France.

8:27Ed Balls: We should be clear, you know, I have my political currency mug, but it's empty. Well, actually, what was that? Don't worry. It was liquid anyway. there's no coffee or tea allowed in um in the in the tapestry room that's quite right and the case is obviously a magnificent structure in itself it's kind of secure in many ways liquids is one thing but also um in terms of accidental damage and such like so yeah it's a it's been a man of project and in just such a short period of time as well i mean that's what's been incredible about this i mean we only really had the get-go in july last year to do this no

9:01George Osborne: this is a much shorter time frame than for a normal exhibition and i ed come on give me your first review we're about to get the actual the critics from the newspapers come in after after we've stopped recording so you can be the first critic to look at the look at it see i've seen it

9:17Ed Balls: before in bayou about 15 years ago with our um kids um it wasn't um for them as exciting as it should have been but for me in a bit it really was i'm going to have a quick look while you start the conversation because it's been unveiled since we arrived i've not even been able to see

9:31George Osborne: so far so okay you carry on so it's just getting up from his chair to go a couple of meters behind to look at it i think what's interesting michael tell you know this is a 70 meter long story isn't it and i think if you don't know the story you just sort of assume it's foreign king duke of normandy comes and invades england and kills harold but it's a really interesting story of kinship you know harold actually goes to meet william they go and fight together in france he's a kind of friend of william's he's shown in this tapestry doing heroic things he's supposed to basically promise isn't he that william's going to be the king in the future when edward the confessor dies welch is on the promise and that leads the battle but it's in them i mean what how much how what period of english history is this a few months or a couple of years what is Well, it's a complicated story, like you say.

10:22I mean, it sort of starts in 1065, so not long before, you know, what we know as the end, the Battle of Hastings and such like. But it's the build up to those events is a history that the tapestry doesn't tell. And that is obviously quite important to kind of get your head around to some extent to understand why are we in this situation in the first place? And why is Harold being sent or going of his own volition to kind of to France?

10:47George Osborne: And he's not the heir to Edward the Confessor. No, not at all. Edward the Confessor has no heirs, right? Well, he doesn't, but he has at the royal court at this time, raising a man called Edgar Aetheling, who's his great nephew. And he's raising him to be king. And that's what Edward, we all assume, is expecting to happen. But in the past, he's made a promise to William. And in the present, Harold is the most powerful person in England. So he's like the top nobleman. Exactly. He's not royal. No, he's not royal. apart from on his mother's side, he's related to the Danish royal family. So there is a bit of a connection, but he's not royal in the traditional sense.

11:25And the tapestry essentially tells the tale of these two men and ignores all of the other people. And like you've inferred, it kind of brings in things that you're not really expecting to see, like the Brittany campaign. And it leaves out things that you might expect to see, like the invasion of the north of England by Harold Hedrada. So it's a particular narrative, a particular tale to glorify two men, but also William's half-brother as well, Odo Bishop of Ayo, who likely commissioned the tapestry. So it's quite a complex narrative.

11:54George Osborne: Yeah. Ed, you've come back from your in-depth study of the tapestry.

12:00Ed Balls: No, I wouldn't say, look, I think compared to Michael's 30 to 40 years, it's definitely not in-depth. But compared to last time, it feels bigger. when I saw it before it was felt like quite distant and behind kind of glass in a in a less easy to see way here compared to my memory it's big you can see it very clearly the lighting is very effective and it's almost like you can touch it I know you can't and it does have the feel and look of a tapestry within it the detail is you know obviously incredible yeah but the thing when you look at it you realize that um all the films we've seen on television depicting battles of the past i mean they were based upon these images weren't they these are the first images we have of what conflict was like a thousand years or so ago it was much more vivid and tapestry and textured than i was expecting it's very exciting actually yeah i mean it is an amazing way to see it because like you said when you see it in bayou or when you used to see in bayou you only literally saw half of it because of the way it bent around the case so here you get a really good sense of the length of the tapestry I mean it's big and length and it's depth as well yeah yeah and the other thing of course is because the tapestry is flat ironically like you said I mean I've had that experience as well when you're in Bayer the tapestry is on a rail it's behind glass there's a bit of wooden case in front of it there's a barrier in front of that could be a picture before you know it you're quite far away from it but here you literally hover over it and I've got to say when you know they were talking about the fact that the tapestry was going to be flat in its case here i was a bit oh that's a bit disappointing but actually now you see it you kind of get so close it's how do you keep people moving along well that is we've had a good debate about that third of the way along other people it's a bit like that this is a bit like a hundred meter

13:51George Osborne: track it was actually quite long i think people will cluster at the beginning which is the other end from where we're at the battle of hastings end and uh the story begins right over there in the distance and i think people will cluster a bit to begin with and then they'll move more

14:05Ed Balls: quickly are you allowed to go to the end and work backwards you can yeah no well not we're not encouraging i mean not yeah the idea is in that case i probably shouldn't suggest but i have to say if i was coming if you went to the end there'd be nobody there well no no there'd be one mode of

14:18George Osborne: transition it's a good it'll be a constant stream of people um but it's an interesting i mean we're a political podcast this tells a political story i mean this is kings and there are battles and people get their heads chopped off and whatever but this is all about power and who runs the country i mean it's not a million miles away from the tale of british politics in the last couple of years you know in 1066 there are three rulers of the country right and we've had three prime ministers in the last you know two or three years so but also the deal yes the deal for the handover

14:53Ed Balls: and then question mark was there a betrayal of the the deal i mean it's all you know do you want to

15:00George Osborne: will be uh you know thinking well yeah i've been welched on by this man from manchester just like he kind of talked about it last night didn't he but i'm well andy burnham alluded to it in his speech here he said you know a guy comes from the north to uh seize power in southern england couldn't happen these days uh and got a laugh from the audience and how about gordon brown and Tony Blair how will they um the equivalent of the Granita deal is in the middle here where uh Harold is supposed to be in Normandy he's touching isn't he relics to sort of swear an oath to William and I think you have a theory that he's if you look really closely he's sort of it's a bit like having your fingers crossed he's not actually touching yeah I mean you can read it both ways because all it says he makes a sacred oath doesn't tell you what it's about or any details and in fact the Bayer tabestri is the only place that the only source that places the oath in Bayer actually anyway.

15:53So there's this theory that there could have been lots of different oaths all over the place for different sorts of things. It's only the Norman sources later on that really pile on all of the promises that he apparently sort of made. But like you said, his fingers almost touch those reliquies, but maybe they don't. And I guess an English audience could look at this and think, well, you know, he didn't do this under, you know, his own kind of will. And in fact, that's played out in the English sources as well.

16:14Ed Balls: When you think about politics and propaganda and culture, I don't know, Shakespeare, Henry V, or a piece of music by Elgar or Parry, think of, I don't know, or Royal Britannia. I mean, what's always happening is that culture is telling a story, but there's always an underpinning bias or propaganda to it. And in the telling of the story in this tapestry, how much do you think it is objective and how much is it slanted to tell one side's story to their political advantage? Yeah, I think the overall thrust of the tapestry is for Odo, who commissioned it, to show that he had a prominent role in this conquest.

16:56But also... So it was about him?

16:58Ed Balls: Yeah, I think... It wasn't about William Orwell. Well, it's all about me. It's all... Well, I mean, why not? I mean, there's a famous... He's patron. Well, yeah, and there's a famous scene here where there's the Last Supper scene and Odo is literally in the Christ position at the Last Supper. I mean, that is kind of, you know, saying something about yourself, isn't it? Where you portray yourself as Jesus Christ in a medieval sort of context. But at the same time, I think it's quite important that in terms of this conflict, that Harold is seen as a worthy advocate against William. If William just kind of rolls over someone who's quite easy, well, you know, what's to say about that?

17:31Not a lot, really. so harold is kind of trumped up i think in some ways to show that you know he was a man that had the power he had the control in england to set himself up and one thing we haven't sort of talked about is the fact that he comes from well not nowhere but i mean he's not royal of course he just is he's able to command confidence in the country to take over the country whatever the will of the pre-existing um king or whatever has been kind of he's just a kind of charismatic local lord

17:59George Osborne: who becomes the national lord doesn't it yeah but um back if you go back to 1066 obviously today you've got podcasts you've got the today program we've got good morning britain you've got tick tock you've got newspapers i mean how would the general public have learned about the battle and the takeover i guess they would have seen the physical evidence of it because some people have said effectively a sort of genocide happened that the normans came in and swept away the English ruling class. But did this tapestry play? I mean, presumably this was meant to sort of communicate a story as well. It was like an early pictorial newspaper of its day.

18:37George Osborne: Is that right? Yeah, I mean, I think that's exactly what the tapestry was. I think Odo would have commissioned this to show to the English and the Normans, you know, what had been achieved, and also what was to come. I think in some ways, the way I see this is that Harold had been defeated. the English weren't crazy for following him but the situation is now completely changed William is now king and you've just got to kind of accept the status quo and I think he was showing this tapestry to to people to kind of communicate that sort of story that you know

19:04Ed Balls: that you weren't crazy but it's just how it is now but can I put to you this was in the piece by Vanessa Thorpe in the Observer at the weekend quoting the Oxford professor Janina Ramirez she says what we're really talking about here in 1066 we're talking about genocide the Normans came over and annihilated English culture, English society, English people, the women were lightly stitching to save their lives. These were English weavers who were under sufferance having to tell this story. Is that a correct representation of how the tapestry was actually put together? Well, I think the English women who did the embroidery, I think they would have experienced many of the things that are seen in the tapestry.

19:41And it's quite interesting how women are represented in the tapestry. There's a woman that's kind of shown fleeing a house. There's another one potentially being assaulted. in the in the borders as well there's kind of sexual scenes between men and women that i think would have had a mark on the people that kind of actually embroidering this and of course they would experience their men folk as well being killed in the battle and displaced and all of those things so i think it's also possible that people creating this you know it's almost impossible isn't it to create an artwork i think and not be thinking about those things as you kind of as you

20:11Ed Balls: do it and although they wouldn't have been thinking about the fact that in a thousand years and more time we would be talking about it i mean can you imagine stitching this and thinking to yourself that you know we are doing something of such historic significance that would never have

20:26George Osborne: occurred to them well i tell you what is striking we had the king here yesterday and there's a coronation scene in the middle of the tapestry for harold and you know i don't think i'm betraying confidence because we were showing him and the queen around and he said that's like my coronation And you look at it and it is almost an identical ceremony to the one we had a couple of years ago in this country. And he made the point of his speech. He is a direct descendant of William the Conqueror.

20:55Ed Balls: And he is the head of state of Britain because of what happened here a thousand years ago. But there's an important point there. We on our podcast often talk about history and lessons from history and learning the right lessons and whether politicians are thinking about the past. And it's very easy if you are a king or a prime minister to think that what you are doing is unique and nobody's ever done this before, that you are setting the pace and the trend. And actually, when you look at the tapestry, what you realise, as George was saying a moment ago, this is telling a historic story which has been repeated so many times through the ages of kinship and then betrayal and then conquering and the use of power.

21:36Ed Balls: and actually history is all about um learning the right lessons and not repeating past mistakes and then um making sure that you seize opportunities i guess if you were andy burnham looking at this tapestry what do you think history teaches him about being a good prime minister from what he would see if he was looking at um this embroidery well i don't i for me it's a slightly different question that I probably should ask or answer really is is in a way is you know when they created this tapestry I mean the reason it is so important to us nowadays is because England was never conquered again and you can't dictate what happens after so for Andy Burnham for example he's Prime Minister for an amount of time you know his legacy sort of depends on what sort of happens next in a way doesn't it and that's determined by other people so in some ways the legacy of this object is not really necessarily william or odo but the fact that no one was able to ever achieve

22:30George Osborne: the norman conquest or something like it again we sometimes have what if episodes on uh this podcast and i just want to ask you a quick what if i mean presumably the battle could have gone the other way easily i mean it's a pretty small norman force they've just landed they've made this perilous crossing that could have gone wrong yeah um and they didn't and some of it did to start with it i mean when they first left they lost a lot of ships and they had to redo it again Right. So it could have gone wrong. The English Channel could have saved us in the way it did with the Armada and the Nazis and Napoleon.

23:02George Osborne: But it didn't on this occasion. And presumably, you know, Harold's a pretty accomplished leader. That's why he's managed to get the crown and he's defeated Harold Hadrana up at Stamford Bridge, hasn't he? But that's the problem when you do politics and history. We know the outcome. Yeah. But it could have easily gone the other way. And how different would the history of Britain be if there had never been a Norman conquest? Yeah, I think it could have gone completely the other way. I mean, Harold's mistake in some ways was fighting this battle in the first place. He could have sent someone else to deal with this and stayed in London, and that probably would have been the safest option.

23:34There's various reasons why I think that he didn't do that. But if he had won, then obviously I think England's links with Scandinavia would be maintained for longer. I think the Norman Conquest made us look more to continental Europe as opposed to Scandinavia. Maybe things would have happened gradually anyway, the same sort of way. But obviously, one fundamental change would have been the fact that we wouldn't have had so many French words in our language as we do now. And that owes so much to Norman Conquest.

24:01Ed Balls: And the whole ownership of land and property would have been very different for the following thousand years. It could have been very different. I mean, that's the thing. We don't know. I mean, obviously, people talk about, for example, the architecture, you know, Romanesque buildings, castles, cathedrals, all of this sort of stuff. I mean that was coming into England already the Norman conquest just exacerbated it in many ways so there are some things I think would have happened anyway and other things wouldn't but language would have had a closer collaborative partnership with the French in the following hundreds and thousands thousand years maybe we'd just be closer to the French if it had gone the other way well I was reading something recently of one of I say that with great skepticism by the way I was reading something recently with one of the first scholars who wrote about this and he saw he was a French scholar and he saw the Norman conquest as a nightmare for the French monarchy because it invites essentially the English then to have an interest in France which I think is quite an interesting perspective.

24:55George Osborne: Which leads to the Hundred Year War and all that later. Yeah yeah of course yeah so it's quite interesting perspective. Michael did by the way a brilliant job with his team of creators and the team here at the British prime minister and if angli-french relations were important a thousand years ago they're also very

25:21Ed Balls: important today that's true can i just say though i think it's very important that michael um that this all goes well good luck with your negotiations with um with george and the greeks i know i know i know that is the next the next challenge for the uh for both of you and do you think knowledge can beat cheffield united on saturday oh gosh i'm not really hoping out much they're ready for this That's a bit too pessimistic. Yeah, sorry about that. He's more optimistic about sorting out the Elgin marbles.

25:47George Osborne: On the back of Michael's Norwich shirt, he's got Bayer as the name and 66 as the number. Yeah, I couldn't get 1066, not enough space. Norwich can't afford that many players. Thank you so much, Mike. Yeah, thanks. It's going to be a great show. Tickets are going on sale if you haven't got one already in October.

26:05Ed Balls: And as you said, President Macron only just met Andy Burnham.

26:08George Osborne: We are going to talk about Andy Burnham's challenges next.

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28:29George Osborne: so welcome back uh well i had the um privilege of showing andy burnham as well as the king and president mackerel around the tapestry yesterday and what i noticed uh having been a you know a politician myself in the past is you know he's got a very natural and easy style he was very good with you know all the different people he met including the president the king but also the school children who were part of the event. And he had a kind of self-confidence. He cracked a couple of jokes at his own expense, not just when he was speaking, but as he was sort of walking along. And it was a bit of a contrast because I did a very similar event with Keir Starmer a year ago, right here, which was sort of less, you know, he was less sort of comfortable in his skin around people, but, you know, delivered in terms of getting the tapestry here.

29:17George Osborne: So you could see, you know, we start on the positives of the Burnham premiership. You know, what he has kind of brought back to British politics is his politics is like he's a natural communicator. He's got some charisma. And, you know, this can be interpreted in two ways. I use the word deliberately and Kemi Bay not used it in Prime Minister's Questions. And he's had some crowd pleasing announcements over the last. So he's sort of I would say he's kind of soft launched the premiership, had a pretty good start. the Labour poll leaders up but all the big questions lie out.

29:53Ed Balls: Look there's no doubt that he looks like he actually is enjoying doing the job, likes being Prime Minister. I don't really think that we've had a Prime Minister since David Cameron who looked fully comfortable in the role in Parliament and on the television and as you say that is reflected in not just the opinion polls but also in Andy Burnham's ratings so far. David was like natural and enjoyed it.

30:20George Osborne: But all the prime ministers afterwards, even Boris Johnson, I always thought he himself had a bit of a kind of imposter syndrome feeling to him. And then the Tory prime ministers on either side, more awkward. Keir Starmer, awkward.

30:34Ed Balls: But Andy... And Jeremy Corbyn. I mean, in PMQs yesterday, it was the first time PMQs had a prime minister and a leader of the opposition who both looked like they understood the role, that they were respectful of each other, that they were going to do PMQs in the way in which it has been done historically. But it's been much less, look, the truth is the Jeremy Corbyn era was a strange time for PMQs. But it was never Keir Starmer's milieu. It was interesting on Tuesday, Andy Burnham finally comes to the House of Commons. You know, the Speaker of the House of Commons, Lindsay Hall, be slightly grumpy about the fact that he became the Prime Minister after Parliament had ended back in the end of July.

31:17Ed Balls: And so, as speakers often do, he got his own back. So Andy Burnham's doing a statement, which was essentially a reheating of the speeches Andy Burnham had given when he became Prime Minister. And Lindsay Hall just decided that every question which a backbencher wanted to ask, he was going to take. And so it lasted three and a half hours. And John Birker used to do that to torture David Cameron. But I think Lindsay Hall was saying, don't disrespect Parliament. It worked to Andy Burnham's advantage, though, not disadvantage, because he absorbs that whole charge that he's not being accountable answering the questions.

31:54Ed Balls: And I think the sense in the Commons was, I mean, I don't think he was on top of every issue in detail, but he was relaxed. He was comfortable. He was personal. He was kind of anecdotal. He was engaging in every question and wanting to get, you know, arguably slightly too respectfully to some of the questions. But that sense of ease in the role is not something that we've seen for a long time. And I think that that, you know, at this point, will go down well with voters as well as it definitely is with parliamentarians on both sides, I think.

32:27George Osborne: So, yes, here's a medley of some of the things he was saying in parliament this week.

32:30Ed Balls: Britain's defence starts in Ukraine and the defence of our nation will always be my first priority. Numbers arriving over the summer halved on last year, making this year to date the lowest for crossings since 2021. We are now confirming that anyone convicted of manslaughter, death by dangerous driving or indecent assault will not now see any change to their prison term. this government's first moves were to give businesses and people a little breathing space. On tax, in my first week in office, we cut VAT on electricity bills and cut business rates for pubs, social clubs and live music venues.

33:21We reinstated the£2 cap on bus fares for the whole of 2027. These measures will provide some relief, Mr Speaker.

33:31George Osborne: So a pretty successful start in the respect of establishing himself, Labour back top of the polls at the moment, which was certainly not the case a few months ago. I've got a couple of kind of straws in the window, kind of questions for you. There were three things I was thinking of. The first is, it's a bit like the Battle of Hastings though. There is a defeated side here. I mean, Keir Starmer has quit Parliament and it's been pretty bloody. I mean, Keir Starmer didn't want to come to the opening because Andy, you know, I suspect because Andy Burnham was here. And so there's a bit, is there any of that bloodletting?

34:05George Osborne: Does that matter or has it all been dealt with and now Keir Starmer's gone? Because, you know, in the Tory civil wars or the Tory changes of premiership, the kind of scars were left, you know, after each defenestration. Is it all calm within the parliamentary Labour Party?

34:21Ed Balls: Look, I don't think it's all calm at all. I think it all depends upon how Andy Burnham does and what the outcomes are. And people will be careful and bide their time. But look, for example, you had Darren Jones deposed as chief secretary to the prime minister, chooses this week, the same week where Andy Burnham's doing his launch in parliament. Keir Starmer chooses to announce him departing from parliament on the same day as Andy Burnham does his first parliamentary action, which was definitely a deliberate act. Darren Jones says you can't think you can solve every problem by simply spending more and you've got to get beyond the sugar rush of announcements.

35:00Ed Balls: And so that was definitely pointed, but not full-blooded. But undoubtedly, there's a lot of anger and resentment amongst a group of people who are now out. I don't think at the moment that is something which is causing Andrew Burnham a problem. but you know when we come on to the future challenges that is definitely an issue the thing i am worried about is um is the management of expectations i mean what andy burnham is doing there was a bit of slightly odd tension where john healy the new chancellor says um this is continuity with the new prime minister which i don't think is the line because andy burnham wants to say no it's all about change in that clip we heard all the different things he's going to be to be doing but it is really hard out there in the global economy and our economy has not grown strongly for a long time and we'll come on to it in a moment the fiscal challenges Andy Burnham is not at the moment spending much time explaining to people why it's hard and why it's going to take time and he's doing hope but he's also giving the impression that he He can fix things.

36:10Ed Balls: And that has two challenges. On the cost of living, if you say, I feel your pain, we're going to make things better. I've got a couple of small announcements which show I'm serious, but that is a down payment. He needs people to start to feel better off. And then if you take the situation he's got into about early release and prisoners. The truth is, our prisons are in a terrible state. It's going to take years to sort out. this wasn't Andy Burnham or Keir Starmer's problem it was a long accumulated problem but Andy back at the end of July beginning of August says you know early release I'm really worried about it I'll get it sorted out I'm listening to you the public and I feel what you're feeling I'm going to do something about it and he ends up I think I think he had no choice but to act on the killers of PC Harper and to say that people with manslaughter are going to be exempted from early release but the consequence of that is that he now owns the early release program he's not put lots of caveats and talked about you know wider responsibility if one of the people who are now released on the um you know the historic IPP and sentences commits a

37:23George Osborne: further crime these are the indefinite sentences which uh even David Gork who the former Tory minister who did the review for the Starmer government said I'm not sure I would have let

37:34Ed Balls: these people out but if one of those yeah now re-offends that is on Andy Burnham yeah and I think he what he's doing is he's taking ownership of every issue and also giving the impression that that he can sort it out and actually it's not clear that he can and therefore you know if I were um james pinnell the chief of staff i would be cautioning and andy that at the moment you know you are putting in place quite a lot of grenades which could explode in your hands in in months rather than years to come i don't think he's shaping expectations um in a way which is going

38:13George Osborne: to give him political protection you know his promise is to tear up 40 years of neoliberal consensus which includes by the way the governments he served in and you did under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown I have a sort of version of that one is a kind of missed opportunity potentially I mean you and I know that you never get that time again when you're new you may think oh I can keep this going but you know history tells you repeatedly prime ministers have a honeymoon and then the honeymoon goes and then sometimes they can kind of get it back and win a general election and you know he's he has not used these first couple of months as prime minister to make any major announcement any kind of big reform he would say number 10 north is his right okay fair enough okay fair enough to to the kind of central administration and therefore but um you know the announcements have been all small bit i mean they've all been you know like cheaper school uniforms and uh you know you don't have to have your you know online subscriptions automatically and all of that and i think you might just sort of look back and like have we have we missed a moment you know with the the window closes and you don't know when the window suddenly slams shut on you um you know for keir samuel it slammed shut pretty quickly so there's a missed opportunity and then the second thing which is what you kind of alluded to which is and we talked about it before the summer he has picked cost of living as his issue keir starmer picked cost of living as his issue and rishi sunak picked cost of living as his issue the central purpose of the government and it's not in his direct control so he's picked something over which he does not ultimately have all the levers far from it so he can make an announcement you know i'm going to help every little helps is his kind of message isn't it if we can alleviate the squeeze where we can we will and yet we're you know doing this podcast in a week in which global bond markets have had a route and uh british you know interest rates are at a kind of 20-year high sweeping away all these these small things now you can run an economic policy in that environment in which you're saying yeah it's a real problem we know it's a real problem for people today i can't deliver you know relief today but if we take these steps you know relief will come I can build an enterprise economy.

40:41George Osborne: I can build a fair economy. I can build, you know, there are lots of different versions of it. I'm not being ideological here. But you're kind of setting a longer term ambition for the economy. Whereas the risk is he's kind of caught on like, I'm going to deal with your cost of living. And then in six months time, people are going to say, well, hold on, I feel worse off.

40:58Ed Balls: And you said you were going to help me. It's interesting. You could feel Kemi Badenock's frustration on Wednesday at PMQs. And by the way, PMQs is one thing he could have done differently. I mean, he actually went back to a rather conventional approach to PMQs where he gives quite long and detailed answers to every question. What that means is he's now going to spend a lot of Monday and Tuesday every week in Downing Street preparing for PMQs. That is debilitating. And he could have tried to break out of that and he didn't take that opportunity. But anyway, in passing, Kimmy Badenock, we've both been in this situation where we've been on question time when you are a cabinet minister in government.

41:36Ed Balls: And there'll be either the comedian or the celebrity or sometimes a small party person. I remember Caroline Lucas doing this to me when she was the Green Party, where, you know, it's complicated and you know, it's difficult and you are constrained by what you can say. but that person feels no constraint and all they have to do is say the thing which they know will make the audience clap in question time and it's so frustrating because you think you've taken the easy clap line and you've made me look like I'm the gringe but actually I can't do the easy clap line because I know it's actually going to be harder than that so far Andy Burnham's style has been a bit like saying the things you'll get the clap but at a certain point when you're the Prime Minister and he's no longer the Mayor of Manchester he is the Prime Minister now he starts to take responsibility for the outcomes and the complexity and at that point Kemi Badenock I think will be pleased that he is um taking the more populist line on cost of living but at the moment you can sort of feel her frustration because at the moment he doesn't he doesn't feel like he's quite being Prime Ministerial in the way in which he's going about

42:45George Osborne: it yeah I thought she you know she actually it wasn't that easy for her but she has done it I I thought she had actually one of her stronger performances, but there's no doubt he is going to be a much harder problem for her than Keir Starmer was. Now, what about the big challenges this autumn? I mean, we've got the budget in October. John Healy appears to have sort of recommitted, Andy Burnham appears to have recommitted to the Healy ambition when he resigned as Defence Secretary to get to 3 % of GDP spent on defence. You've got social care. We're waiting for the big announcements on that. And you've got this very current problem in bond markets, which is not unique to Britain, but it's certainly being felt here.

43:28George Osborne: What of the kind of big problems, I wouldn't say problems, because, you know, you want to give a budget. You know, that's a big opportunity as well as a problem. But what should we keep our eye on? Is it or is it the 10 year plan? Is that going to be the big event of the autumn?

43:43Ed Balls: Well, I think I think you alluded to this a moment ago. Right now, the thing which will be worrying the Treasury is what is happening in the Straits of Hormuz, what's happening in global bond markets, and in particular, the inflation threat. And higher inflation, higher interest rates, the Office of Budget Responsibility coming in with a forecast for the budget. They've not done a full forecast since the Iran conflict began. And if you remember, Rachel Reeves did her spring statement just in the days when it was kicking off. But the OBR forecast preceded that. So they're going to come in. And John Healy may think to himself that he'd quite like to have a quiet budget, which he doesn't seek to do too much, and says to Andy Burnham, we need to play it long on the NHS or on social care and all those kind of things.

44:34Ed Balls: But he might find, first of all, that when he gets to the budget at the end of October, he has to act and maybe act painfully simply to stand still but it might be the combination of higher interest payments or weaker growth means that the the room for maneuver from rachel reeves

44:51George Osborne: the fundamental decision then he's got is the same that she had although he's got a bit more he can either ditch her rules no suggestion they're going to do that can't do that he can operate with a smaller headroom but she tried that and then got burnt you know within within a few months so she's sort of he's sort of back where she is which is i've got to just kind of build up my fiscal headroom again which in a world where the plp won't let you cut spending the enterprise feel in the economy means tax rises are you know costly for you in terms of economic growth and the bond market won't let you borrow more you're back to her where she is which is you're scrabbling around trying to build up headroom and he's presumably got to deliver something in the budget that's going to be the crowd pleaser, right?

45:38Ed Balls: I think this defence issue is a big challenge for both of them now. And this is not a Labour issue.

45:47George Osborne: No, but they've been... I mean, this is not what people... I mean, I'm not saying Labour are weak on defence and Clement Attlee gave us the nuclear bomb. But, you know, it's not the thing that gets the left excited,

45:58Ed Balls: more defence spending, is it? But it is about the credibility of the Prime Minister, of the Chancellor now, internationally, but also politically. And they have been in a bit of a mess on this in the last week. John Healy did an interview in the FT, a report in the FT saying he wasn't committed to 3 % by 2030, wouldn't be sorted out in the budget. He then had to do an interview in the Times a few days later saying, well, actually he was. Andy Burnham gave the impression to the chair of the Defence Select Committee in PMQs that he was committed to 3 % in 2030. And then Number 10 said, I know, but actually, that's not a hard commitment.

46:31Ed Balls: it's not really what he's saying. The problem is this, Andy Burnham chose John Healy to be his Chancellor. John Healy's resignation letter said to Keir Starmer, I'm resigning because you won't commit to 3 % on defence by 2030, and says that this puts the country and our forces at risk. And if John Healy now resiles from that, including at the budget, I think, either John Healy's saying, I was wrong and Rachel Reeves was right or he's saying look I may have said that then but actually that was just a ruse to destabilise Keir Starmer and he didn't really mean what it says. Neither of those positions are comfortable for John Healy or for Andy Burnham so I do think they have to credibly sort out 3 % by 2030 and they can't wait.

47:26Ed Balls: I'm not sure they can kick it into the spending review without being clear there's provision for that in this budget and so that is the first thing which they've got to sort out and as you say in the list of things which Andy Burnham says he's going to transform Britain over after the last 40 years you know it's not clear defence would have been number one in his list compared to social care or the NHS or education or nationalizing water and energy the biggest council house building program for um for decades and so um so what do

47:58George Osborne: you think of all those things what would he like his domestic priorities because presumably he will

48:02Ed Balls: try and if i were objectives if i were um andy burnham i would think that although i don't think and you know i think we'll come back and talk about this more in detail next week when we look at like the global economy and what's going on in america and iran i don't think it is right to say that the global market reaction is a british reaction i don't think there is a that they are saying there is a particular British problem but what is clear is there is no room for manoeuvre for a British Chancellor to do anything which is risky or out of the ordinary so they are quite constrained.

48:35George Osborne: There's a potentially a British premium there's still a worry that even in it's a problem facing lots of countries but there's a kind of fear that Britain has a particular weakness when it comes to inflation.

48:47Ed Balls: There might be but I think you can make the same argument about France and you can make the same argument about America it's not clear that if you take like a month for you the british shift in long-term interest rates to be any different there has been historical british premium that's not gone away it's not clear that's got worse that's right i'm sorry i don't think it's got worse but i mean it hasn't gone away that hasn't gone away but there is not room for maneuver they are boxed in on tax and um and i think this defense issue they're going to have to sort out andy burnham needs the cost of living to start to feel better and he needs public services in particular on the NHS to start to feel better.

49:23Ed Balls: And as you know, with political timetables, if he's thinking about a general election in 2028, I mean, he's got weeks, possibly months, to do things which will have a material impact on outcomes, which goes back to my point at the beginning, which is about shaping expectations. If you don't think that you can really deliver in 18 months' time, you have to shape expectations that it's a long haul, but we're moving in the right direction. Or go early. Or go early, which is, of course, what is in Kemi Bainock's mind. It's been reported today that Antonia Romeo has said that Kemi Bainock cannot have access talks to start discussing the change of government and the civil service, because Andy Burnham has said there isn't going to be an early general election, but she clearly had a reshuffle this week with an eye on a general election sooner rather than later.

50:10George Osborne: So we're going to talk about that next. And we're also going to talk about reform and the Greens. In other words, what are the other parties doing to respond to the burn and bounce?

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52:39Ed Balls: So welcome back. We're just going to have a quick conversation about the main opposition parties. And as I said, next week, we're going to look at what's happening in the wider world. Because I think America and what's happening in Iran and the Straits of Hormuz are going to have such a big bearing on British politics. But first of all, while we've been recording, it has been announced that zach polanski is going to be standing in the camden by-election i've got to say i don't think he had any choice really because if he wants to be prime minister he needs to be in parliament and this is a winnable london seat potentially for the greens and he wants to be a london mp but for zach polanski i mean this is a huge gamble isn't it it's a big

53:23George Osborne: gamble but you know andy burnham stood in a by-election and it paid off if this tapestry behind us tells you if you want the crown you have to go for it and risk everything and um so i i agree i don't think he had a choice and it's hard to think of a seat you know that would be better suited i mean maybe more of a university town but there are a lot of university students in the

53:45Ed Balls: hoban andst pancras seat in the recent local elections the greens did better but labor still was strong so it's not it's not it's not a shoo-in we're actually in the seat right now

53:55George Osborne: and it's not just the blooms reset around here though you know there are some pretty established social housing which will be more classically Labour it's not you know it's but nevertheless put it this way I think three or four months ago the Greens would have walked this by election probably you know I mean it's an old one because Keir Star was the MP here but you know a seat like this the Greens would have walked like they did in Manchester it's you know but if he wins the greens are back right and i think there's that's the kind of intro we didn't talk about in the last segment but it does seem to me what andy bonham's first of all trying to do is just kind of while the right is split and there's we'll come on to this in a moment the tory reform you know division there's no prospect really in this parliament of that being resolved or some kind of pact if you can just hold the left then you win the general election which is kind of what happened two years ago.

54:48Ed Balls: So although Keir Starmer may have very annoyingly announced his departure on the day of Andy Burnham's big parliamentary moment and Keir Starmer in a very Keir Starmer-like way ends with a U-turn having made it absolutely clear that he wasn't going to be standing down as an MP a month ago. Actually if he delivers up a by-election to Andy Burnham which Andy Burnham can win in a month's time against the Greens actually that was Keir Starmer's big contribution into the re-elect Andy Burnham campaign 2028?

55:16George Osborne: No, if Burnham can, you know, he beats reform in Makerfield and the Greens in Hoban, that will seal the, you know, political start to the premiership. Now, what about, so the Tories had a reshuffle. I mean, the big news, arguably in opposition, I'm not just saying this because I did the job. The only other post that really matters is the shadow chancellor. No disrespect to all my colleagues who are beavering away in their shadow posts. But, you know, it's hard enough for the public to know who's in the cabinet, let alone the shadow cabinet. Mel Stride replaced by Andrew Griffiths. And Andrew, you know, he's got a proper business career.

55:52George Osborne: He was the chief financial officer of Sky. He was the chairman of Just Eat. And, you know, he was a sort of Boris Johnson, then Liz Truss acolyte. But he's been very active as shadow business secretary. I think Mel Stride will feel, well, what did I do wrong? I was loyal. But I know if you speak to the Bainock team there's no there's no bitterness at all about Mel Stride but they wanted a Duracell bunny they wanted a bit more energy into the uh shadow chancellor portfolio that is the really interesting judgment isn't it because um what kind of shadow chancellor do you want I feel you know

56:29Ed Balls: some loyalty to to Mel Stride I liked him he came on Good Morning Britain pretty much every day in the general election campaign where nobody else would and to the extent that he is burdened by having to defend the Conservative past on welfare reform and Preeti Patel when she was Home Secretary. Well, the same thing applies to Andrew Griffiths in his time in the Treasury with Liz Truss and to Kemi Badenock as well. So it's not clear that Mel Strive is more exposed on that. I actually thought that Tom Tugendhat coming back to Shadow Foreign is also an interesting signal, which is that this wasn't only a reshuffle which was about throwing meat in the direction of potential Tory reform switches.

57:08Ed Balls: And Tom Tugendhat apparently is signing up to the Baden-Hog ECHR withdrawal policy. But Tom Tugendhat won't be, you know, a generic style shadow cabinet member.

57:20George Osborne: I'll tell you some funny stories. So yesterday at the opening, we had Andy Burnham meeting President Macron for the very first time. You know, Macron doesn't know him, doesn't really know Ed Miliband at all. But who had the most face time with Macron yesterday of any british politician it was tom tuggenhart who was here in his capacity as a father of a couple of children at the lycée the french school in london so he comes the the french school kids were here he's got two very impressive young kids at the lycée he's there as part of the parents group that's how he blagged his way and then he seizes his moment unbelievable go grabs the president and has a long chat with him so in terms of hustling your way to that i'm a That's what you've got to do.

58:06George Osborne: If you want to be the nation's diplomat, that's how you do it.

58:09Ed Balls: George Osborne-esque in its shamelessness and absolutely shocking. But on Andrew Griffiths, I mean, as you say, his reputation is a street fighter. They say he's going to be, you know, business friendly. Yeah. But in opposition, historically, I think people have often wanted a shadow chancellor who also was reassuring. and you know had that sort of calming style on television which you know well i'm not sure do you or i have that no but i think um i'm not sure that i i've got a just so i disagree with you i

58:45George Osborne: think the shadow i mean we've both done the job it's a very very hard job i personally found it harder than being chancelous check i know that sounds odd and i've said that before to people and they don't believe me but i promise because you get up in the morning and if you don't get up and you don't do something nothing happens but the shadow chance is not andrew griffiths will win over the business community or not win them over but he'll be a very you know plausible engager with the business and what will the public think the shadow chance has to get with the leader the central political judgments right on what is the tax and spending policy at the general election so that you don't get decimated by the government who when you get to the general election hold a lot of the cards you know rachel reeves had to retreat on the green new deals they got close to the general election she had to promise as did kia starland no more tax rises they got boxed in in a way that okay they won the election but then it was a real problem for them afterwards as we discussed at the time andrew now is the the chief political strategist of the economic and that's what the shadow isn't that you know you and i've done the job that's that's the sort And Gordon Brown was absolutely critical to the Blair win.

59:58George Osborne: Blair was obviously central to winning in 1997, but Brown was putting in the economic strategy that reassured people that they could choose Labour again.

1:00:07Ed Balls: Andrew Giffith has got to do that. But you also have to say to people that the economy will be safe. Yes. In my hands, you can trust me. And that combination of setting the agenda, but also if you think about John McDonnell, I don't think he was able to convey that. imagine John Redwood being Shadow Chancellor I'm not sure he would have conveyed that sort of that sentiment I guess the question with Andrew Griffiths will he be the right side of aggressive driving or will it actually be because I think his instincts might be I want to be the

1:00:36George Osborne: John Redwood Tory radical and he talks about an economic revolution but if you've got to persuade people to vote Tory again you've got to reassure them finally on the reform conference I mean it hasn't happened yet so but they're a bit I mean they're still doing historically unbelievably well but the latest poll actually put some third, which is a real turnaround, isn't it?

1:00:53Ed Balls: They've had a torrid summer. The funding issues for Nigel Farage are not going away. The divides between Robert Jenrick and Zia Yusuf are damaging. And if Nigel Farage thought that the by-election win against Count Binface was going to turn things around for him over the summer, it hasn't. And I go back to the argument I've made all along. I don't think that reform can succeed if Nigel Farage thinks his biggest challenge is shoring up his right flank. He has to move to the centre ground and he's not doing that. And that is a problem for him. And that's what I'm sure Richard Tice in private is saying to Nigel.

1:01:30Ed Balls: That's what you've got to do. But so far, he's still not listening.

1:01:34George Osborne: Wow. Lots to talk about this autumn and the big international backdrop, which we're going to talk about next week. But the backdrop for this has been the Bayer Tapestry. Let's return to that. we are sitting literally a meter away a couple of meters away from the bay of tapestry it's amazing uh i hope people come to this exhibition and enjoy it in the way that we have this morning

1:01:53Ed Balls: brilliant and i think they're going to be getting to work right now covering it up because we've had our um our face and light time on the tapestry and it is so old and valuable has to be preserved but it's going to be preserved looked after and seen by a million people which is an amazing thing it's obviously been put on with great thought and care and uh thank you to the british museum and uh his chair for allowing us to um you know i feel as though you know i am the tom togenhart of this podcast having blagged my way in as a co-podcast host to make it in here before the general public arrives um i'm not sure that either he or i will be happy with that parallel

1:02:34George Osborne: but thanks to the british museum and of course just like you can become a member of the british museum and get access to this tapestry you can also become a member of the political currency kitchen cabinet you can become one of our gold subscribers get our episodes early in the case of ex-minister's questions and you can get them ad free and you get our newsletter which we use pretty effectively i think before the summer to update things as the week goes by that's right

1:03:00Ed Balls: if you missed our summer interview series you can hear george talking to yvette cooper the secretary State for Health and also for Amal Rajan. Hear me talking to Kemi Beynok and to Sue Grace, Keir Starmer's former chief of staff in number 10. We're back on Monday with Ex Minister's Questions early if you are a gold subscriber and we will carry on with a little bit more Bayo tapestry inspired history to begin with with a very very special and exciting questioner.

1:03:28George Osborne: Tom Holland from The Rest is History has asked us a question and we will attempt to answer it. We will see you on Monday. See you then.

1:03:41George Osborne: Thanks for listening to Political Currency. This has been a Persephoneca production.

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