Who should be the next prime minister?

0:00Hello podcast listener. Hello you. It's me Greg James and me Alice Levine. Now look I know that you're very much enjoying this podcast that you're listening to and we're sorry to interrupt we really are. And it genuinely might not be our place to say but is it time to try something new? We would like to steal you for our new podcast it's called Bad Chat. And it sounds a bit like this. This one goes out to the walkers and the talkers and the late night stalkers. Maybe not that one. Alice is my best friend. I am not Alice's best friend. Do you know that horses' legs are their fingers? That is a bit of bad chat from me, Greg James.

0:38And me, famously, Alice Levine. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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1:37This is Political Currency with Ed Balls and George Osborne.

1:50So we are remote this Thursday morning.

1:54Ed Balls: George has just flown in from Canada, I think, and your flight was late. I've been hanging around.

2:00George Osborne: Yeah, I just got off a flight from Ottawa. I'd never been to Ottawa before in my life. And I should do a little shout out to Rob the cab driver who dropped me off because he's a big fan of the podcast. I promised I would. I have good things to report from Canada. We have friends in high places who are big fans of the podcast and listen to our hot take on Monday on the Labour leadership shenanigans.

2:24Ed Balls: Look, I have loads of friends in Ottawa, but I mean, the highest place, it's got to be Mark Carney.

2:29George Osborne: Well, the highest place in Ottawa is the king, of course. He's the head of state.

2:33Ed Balls: But he's not often in Ottawa, whereas the king of Canadian politics, Mark Carney, is there all the time, former governor of the Bank of England. So I'm reading between the lines here that Mark Carney may be a listener to our podcast. I wonder if you heard our hot take on Monday about the political turmoil he's left behind in Britain. I'm not sure, to be fair, he left it behind. but do you know I was thinking when I picked him to be governor of the Bank of England and to be

2:59George Osborne: fair you were as charter chancellor very supportive and made it a lot easier as a result it was quite a sort of odd transplant it was like can we get this Canadian to run the Bank of England and how would people feel about that I have to say as I was sitting on the plane coming back from Ottawa I was thinking could we pull off the same trick again and get him to come and be our prime minister i think he'd be do the job brilliantly knows the country really well having been governor of the bank of england um very effective we're going to come and talk or talk about canadian politics later on this podcast but i was i was actually musing would it be possible if you can get andy burnham from manchester in why not get

3:39Ed Balls: mark carney from ottawa well there are a few obstacles in the way of that not least could he get the 81 nominations he would need. And while you have been away in Canada, since we did our hot take on Monday, it's been wild. To be honest, it's been a bit sort of unseemly and embarrassing British politics. But as we're recording this today, West Streeting still seeking to get his 81 nominations. And, you know, that will be sorted out over the course of the day. And of course, we're going to start with what is going on in British politics this week, what is happening to the Labour leadership. And this was so timely that we decided to put this straight out on YouTube.

4:22Ed Balls: So it's already up and out there for you to watch if you'd rather do that rather than listen to us talking about the Labour leadership and the potential leadership contests to come in the coming weeks. So we know, of course, events will be unfolding.

4:41George Osborne: We're recording us at around lunchtime. And it'll hit your phones and whatever later this afternoon. We're going to turn then to some of the enduring questions, whatever happens in the Labour leadership contest, or where there is a contest, about what can a centre-left government learn from successful centre-left governments around the world? Because it is not the case that all centre-left governments are failing. In Canada, as we were just alluding to, in Australia, and indeed in Spain, you might not say it's too centre-left, that one. You have prime ministers who are doing pretty well against their opponents.

5:22George Osborne: And what's interesting is that Angela Rayner, one of the potential contenders in the leadership contest here, has cited that, as did my old friend William Hague this week. So what are the lessons to be learnt from other centre-left governments in the world?

5:38Ed Balls: And then third, we're going to turn to Donald Trump's visit to China, the first American presidential visit to China for nine years, and ask, what does it tell us about American-Chinese relations? What is Donald Trump going, looking for? And is he going to get what he wants and he needs from President Xi? But as I said, we're going to start with our take on the Labour leadership. Ed, where shall we start? Let us start with what has happened in the three days since our live episode last Monday lunchtime. On Monday, after terrible local election results, Keir Starmer doing an observer interview saying he was going on and on and on.

6:26But then MP after MP coming out and signing up to the Catherine West MP campaign to ask for a leadership election. and the day Monday became wilder as events unfolded, ministers resigning that afternoon. First of all, parliamentary private secretaries and then a whole series, it seems, of conversations with the prime minister and the cabinet that evening. Yeah, I mean, this is the life of people at the top of politics. Think of Keir Starmer's week. He's having to stave off these leadership challenges, deal with these resignations, have tea with Wes Streeting. and stand there and watch the king read out possibly the last king's speech that Keir Starmer will write and then perform in the House of Commons.

7:17But I suspect today he's hunkered down. I mean, first of all, we did say in the podcast on Monday that the speech wasn't good enough, that essentially the Keir Starmer rescue plan, which was appointing Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman to these sort of non-jobs as advisors, giving his observer interview, which backfired. Then the speech, which was lacking in substance. You know, all of it didn't work in the sense of staving off speculation about the leadership or staving off people thinking maybe I should have a go. We also noted that Catherine West had been extremely brave in putting herself forward and she has been the effective stalking horse.

8:00I think whatever the outcome of what's happening now, Now she performed the function of sort of pulling the cork out of the bottle. But it seems to me, I mean, reading between the rooms, talking to some people, it looks like Starmer has done a U-turn and may do another U-turn in the next couple of hours. Because I think it looked like on Monday evening, he was getting ready to set out a timetable to announce in his own terms his departure, which is very like Tony Blair in 2006 after a quite similar thing happened to him. Various PPSs started resigning. And then rather than let that become a rush, he set out he was going to go a year later.

8:40It looked like he was going to announce a timetable. And it was certainly briefed around that people like Siobhan Mahmood, the Home Secretary, had said he should do that. But it looks like he then kind of changed his mind. Maybe people, the sort of Starmer camp, in as much as there is one, got to him and said, hold on, what are you doing? Why are you throwing away the crown? Fight for it. I think you're right. I think there were three phases. Phase one was denial. I think over the weekend, the Starmer communications didn't face up to the full scale of anger and emotional upset. And I think part of the problem with the Monday speech is it didn't really feel as though it was rising to the scale of the moment and the need for honest facing up to what's gone wrong as well as new policy.

9:32Then there was a second phase from denial to acceptance, if you like. We now know from all the write-throughs in the newspapers that Keir Starmer was kind of accepting that, as you say, this was all looking quite Tony Blair 2006. I mean, the numbers of MPs and and then ministers coming forward on the same, maybe surpassing in the MPs list, what happened to Tony Blair in 2006. He had done the interview with The Times saying on and on and on. Four days later, he set a timetable for his departure. But it seems as though the briefing from the Home Secretary Shibada Mahmood on the Monday night that she had been in and told the Prime Minister changed things and moved Keir Starmer into phase three, which was defiance.

10:18and on the Tuesday morning broadcasts, Darren Jones was out for the government. We interviewed him, Susanna Reid and I, and he was, you know, very reflective. Keir Starmer will make his own decisions in his own time. And he, I mean, he should say to people he's the number 10 kind of fixer, the minister, the minister for the prime minister. And I think, you know, it sounded to me as though he was then going back to the cabinet to hear, expecting to hear Keir Starmer set out his plans. In the cabinet that morning, Keir Starmer said, we're not going to talk about this here. We will talk. I'll talk to individuals later on.

10:57And then the briefing out of the cabinet was not just there's no contest, but essentially put up or shut up. It was basically if anybody thinks they're hard enough, have a go. You've got to get 81 names. By the way, I'm going nowhere. You saw that series of cabinet ministers going out to do interviews straight after. And that turned into quite a pointed attack on West Streeting. First of all, Keir Starmer wouldn't have a meeting with him that day. The meeting the next morning is timetabled and you see West Streeting walk up Downing Street on Wednesday morning. And he was out within 16 minutes on that morning.

11:43But, I mean, if you just, these are quotes in the newspapers from Starmer allies. I think Wes has bottled it. Wes is now demanding clear up the mess caused by Wes' mates resigning. I think we've seen off Wes as a Starmer ally. What a day. I don't see how Wes can stay in cabinet with any self-respect after this fiasco. We often on this podcast talk about learning from history. and you know there is you know um there's a bit of tony blair 2006 there's a bit of john major saying you know i'm going nowhere um and challenging there's a little bit of um jeremy corbyn you think you can remove me but actually i'm the one with the mandate and the members will support me but the other thing was and there was a particular line in the in the briefing from um the starmer people saying you know you know this is just david milliband and the banana all over again.

12:36Of course, David Miliband, I said this on our Hot Take on Monday, David Miliband often looking like he was about to strike and then back down in West Streeting's mind. And I think also many of the people around West Streeting, the one thing he was not going to do was do a David Miliband. And therefore, when they said, put up if you're hard enough, the briefing came during the King's speech debate yesterday afternoon from West Streeting. Okay, I am going to challenge. I will announce it today. I've got the numbers. I mean, you know, the right thing to have done with West Street was to have said, you know, let's all kind of work together.

13:11He's a good guy. We have the long time. Picking the fight. Put up or shut up. Is he going to put up? no i mean we haven't actually conferred beforehand but i had um exactly the same thought as you what a bunch of idiots around kia starner winding up west streeting at the very moment when you want to be calming him down because you know west streeting's thinking is this my moment shall i go now i want to be the prime minister i want to be leader of the labor party if i leave it maybe the opportunity is not going to come again uh you know andy Burnham might be in Parliament. We'll come on to him.

13:48At the moment, he isn't. And this may be my shot. And that is not the moment for everyone to then go, oh, you're bottling it and whatever. I mean, fine, after you've bottled it. I mean, fine, after you've backed down. Then, you know, politics is a ruthless game. And the other side can make sure he's sort of dead and buried. But not while the fight is on. And also, it was interesting. why make Wes Streeting walk up Downing Street? Why not just see him in the House? There are lots of ways a Prime Minister can meet a Cabinet Minister. Although Wes Streeting could have gone into Downing Street through Whitehall.

14:25He could have gone in the back door. I think Wes Streeting chose to walk up. Wanted the drama. And did it work against Wes Streeting's interest to be out after 60 minutes having had what was, as Kevin Maguire said, the coffee would have been burning hot by the time he left? In Downing Street it just would have been even more tepid than usual but he what about that is all true but from Wes's point of view obviously a lot depends now on what happens over the next few hours but the indications at least right now as we're doing this live is he says he's got the numbers but things might develop which is clue for Keir Starmer might announce he's stepping down or announce a timetable for stepping down I mean, at least...

15:12I'm not sure that's quite right. I think what's going on here is a game of chicken. And what they know is, both sides know it's still in play. And so what number 10 are doing is saying he's not got the numbers. He can't do it. By the way, if he stands, Kirsten will take him on. But you also had the arrival this morning of Angela Rayner, interviews with the ITV and Guardian, saying she's been cleared by the HMRC, no wrongdoing. She's supporting Keir Starmer. Things have got to change. She's not backing Andy Burnham. She is a player. The Keir Starmer people will all be saying to West Streeting people, if you nominate West Streeting, you'll get Angela Rayner because she'll win this battle.

15:56But on the other hand, the West Streeting people are saying, we've got the numbers, but we're not publishing it yet because we think Keir Starmer may be about to announce his timetable. He's read the writing on the wall. And there will, I think, be people who are genuinely stuck in the middle who are thinking, well, you know, I want a challenge or I want to change. I may even want West Streeting. But how confident am I that if I put my name to this list and the challenge happens now, the outcome will be West Streeting rather than Angela Reina or Andy Burnham. On the other hand, West Street is thinking to himself, well, you know, if this is my moment and I don't want to do Michael Portillo 1995, 95, maybe what I've got to do is just go for it.

16:39And what he wants to do is always be reasonable. So I'm not publishing my numbers because I'm still giving the prime minister time to do what people thought might happen Monday night and announce his timetable. It's still not impossible for Keir Starmer this afternoon or tomorrow to do Tony Blair 2006. And the numbers against Keir Starmer are now much bigger than they were against Tony Blair in 2006. And also, So this is not like John Major 95, a government which is 15 years into power. In Tony Blair's case, a decade. They've not been there for two years yet. So all these members of the parliamentary party in the cabinet are thinking, well, if we John Major like go down to, you know, a tepid defeat over the next two years because we don't make the change.

17:26So West Street is thinking maybe this is still my moment. I don't know how this is going to go over the course of the day. the um the um slogan back in 1995 i was actually working on john major's leadership campaign as uh the kind of photocopy boy in uh in a kind of house called cowley cowley street or cowley road just off westminster um and uh john redwood was the channel the only person in the cabinet the welsh secretary at the time who who did challenge major but of course may just you know he actually called the contest is different from this um situation and um and john redwood's slogan was no change no chance which was drafted by one steve hilton uh who may be the next governor of california but but it will be it's exactly that that thought is you know do we make the change have we got any chance at the election and of course in john major's case people stuck with the leader and then went down to a heavy defeat but that was as you say at the tail end of a long long period of served the government.

18:23Also, it was a major strategy, though. Basically, the problem right now is, let's say that West Street doesn't get the numbers, or doesn't challenge. There's people around Keir Starmer saying, you're in the clear. But the scale of the defeat last week, and also the scale of the revolt, is not going to go away. So, I mean, it's very hard. The authority is shredded. But how do you draw a line if you're Keir Starmer? You either draw a line by doing a John Major and say, you know okay i'll resign and have the leadership election or you announce a timetable kind of going on in this circumstance hoping things turn around even though the economy numbers are quite good this morning having put having put west streeting on the back benches i mean he then suddenly becomes because i presume he can't stay as health secretary and he becomes a very very dangerous figure i mean this is so unstable that's before you start to say what's angela reyner or andy Burnham or others on the soft left going to do?

19:22The problem with the draw a line in the sand, you know, I'll pick the battlefield strategy, which was majors in the 1990s, is that Andy Burnham is not in Parliament. And so he can't really say now's the moment to test my leadership. Because people say, yeah, but it's not really a legitimate test, because Andy Burnham's not who, you know, most people would think in a contest would be the favorite to win if he was an MP now. So, you know, he kind of probably staves off a contest for a few months, but then it comes in the autumn and there's a battle at the NEC. Now, but in politics, living to fight another day and staying on the horse, you know, are very, very important things.

20:08Just let's go to, so Angela, let's go to the other, what the other people will be thinking. So West Streeting, you know, I think from West Streeting's point of view, the worst outcome is Starmer remaining, isn't it? Because he could then be fired, even though that would be quite a further risk for Starmer. Because if anyone else wins the contest, I mean, Wes Streeting's getting a big job promotion. You know, he will be a big, in the kind of binding of the Labour Party after the contest approach, assuming they're not following the Liz Trust strategy of putting your opponents to the sword after you've been the victor.

20:43But, you know, then he, so he, you know, he doesn't have that much to fear from like, I'm opening the contest up and maybe, you know, Angela Rayner will win. Because for him, it's... If he gets the numbers. If he gets the numbers, of course. That is the, I think though, if he gets the numbers, you think Keir Starmer can stand. If West Streeting gets the numbers, can Keir Starmer say, okay, like John Major, it's me v. Streeting? no um no because i think at that moment angela rayner and potentially some others will come on to them go now's our moment and and as we were saying on the podcast on monday if you don't want andy burnham in the contest this is the moment to have that fight um because he's not an mp and all the roots let's we'll come on to angela rayner in a moment let's just start with andy burnham it is i can't see how he can get into the contest now i know there's speculation that the nec the the ruling executive of the Labour Party, kind of somehow prolongs the contest to allow a by-election in Manchester, which he becomes the MP.

21:47I mean, to me, that is way too complicated and, you know, hugely risky. We talked on Monday the risk of this by-election. This by-election then, you know, in an area where Labour has just lost the Greens in the most recent by-election and to reform in the most recent council elections, you know, that by-election becomes utterly risky in the whole thing anyways. Chaotic is a complete circus for months because you can't just have a by-election tomorrow. It takes, you know, weeks to organise and so on. So I think that's a non-starter. Or am I wrong? I mean, can you possibly... I mean, unless Keir Starmer were to say I'm going in September and I'll let Andy Burnham, if he wants to, contest the by-election and I'm going to be the, you know, magnanimous, you know, man leaving but allowing for a fair contest for my successor, which was actually, if you want another parallels, although it was in opposition, is what Michael Howard did after the 2005 election.

22:42He said, I'm not immediately quitting. I want to make sure everyone's got a chance. And that's what allowed David Cameron to emerge as a candidate. But that is different. That's in opposition. That's very, very different. He wasn't the prime minister. Keir Starmer could announce a timetable. He could have an orderly transition. He can secure his legacy. but that definitely is likely to let Andy Burnham in. The alternative is I fight on defiance, scorched earth. I think that's very risky for Labour in government, for Keir Starmer's legacy. I mean, you know, Nigel Farage just rubs his hands with glee if politics and Parliament, first the Tories in 2022, then Labour in 2026, just look like they've turned away from the interests of the country to consume themselves in internal fights.

23:33I mean, Luke Akehurst, who is a new MP up in the North East, on the right of the Labour Party, a member of the National Executive Committee, out this morning saying very clearly the timetable can't change. But Shibana Mahmood, chair of the NEC, I mean, she has power. If Keir Starmer decided he preferred Andy Burnham to Wes Streeting, then the NEC can definitely do that. And as you said on Monday, if the timetable changes and Andy Burnham wins a by-election against reforming the Greens, he's then in poll position. But I think if you are Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband or others, and you think to yourself, well, the NEC may not do that and he might lose his by-election.

24:19Are we really going to give West Streeting a four-week clear run at this? Somebody else has to go in. And I thought the thing which was very striking this morning about Angela Rayner was it didn't look to me like she was wanting to be part of a cabal. She is the timing of her intervention today and the delicacy of the communication was very, very skilled. I think that is such a cat amongst the pigeons. And it might in the very short term make things a bit easier for Keir Starmer if he can scare off West Street nominees. nominees but what it also means is that um this is this is going to be you know a fight and i would be surprised if angeli reyna does not think that she has got a good chance of winning now what but um in the kind of skullduggery of uh leadership contests which you know we're all students of the tory ones because actually the labor ones are much you know far fewer and um that you know they haven't brought down a sitting prime minister i don't think ever in their history um so um unless you go right back to ramsey mcdonald he formed a national government um what uh what you know can't can't uh reina people be lent to west streeting can't they so you know in the tory contest there was do you remember there's always the skullduggery of you know you lend people uh your votes it's what james cleverly you know miscalculated and lent too many votes and get into the kind of final contest and you know if you wanted the contest opened up you could lend votes to west streeting get the 81 and and these could be angela reina supporters you know different wings of the party um and then you've triggered the contest and then angela reina comes in well or is that or because it's public it's too hard is it you know i'm very happy to be um corrected by a constitutional Labour Party expert who's watching this live podcast.

26:12And also, rules are always fluid, and therefore they can always be reinterpreted for new times. But I think under the rules, once you've nominated West Streeting in public, it's then hard for you to switch. And so if they think to themselves, we want Andy Burnham in, but in the short term, Ed Miliband will be the placeholder. Whether Ed Miliband would like to be Andy Burnham's placeholder or not, I don't know. But let's say he was. I'm not sure how easy it is to then take those nominations away from Ed Rillivand and give them to Andy Burnham. So it's but of course, because it because it's a transferable vote, it's OK to have candidates who are on the same side, who, you know, who can allow their votes to transfer.

26:58It doesn't have to be a fight. Yeah, let's just let's go through these the runners and riders. so Angela Rayner I mean to my mind this is not really a comment on her particularly it's just she has really high net unfavourability ratings basically almost as high as Keir Starmer so if the Labour Party want to make themselves more electable, choosing someone who's very unpopular with the public may be very popular with sections of the Labour Party I don't know I don't see, in leadership contests the opinion polls matter particularly when you're having a contest, which you usually are because you've lost, because it's like, who's going to get us out of this hole?

27:40The reason we're even having this conversation is because Labour aren't doing well in the polls. And Angela Rayner is just very unpopular with the public. And although she's been cleared in the sense of she's not being further pursued by HMRC, she's had to pay a huge fine by most people's standards. No fine, no fine. She's just paid the tax. Quite right. Sorry, not a fine. but tax she should have paid um and i i don't know i don't and you can't really say look at a great backstory if part of the backstory now is not paying tax so i you know but i think though georgie yeah she has appeal and she has sort of you know um she has that kind of um energy and um a personality which you know is felt to be lacking in kia starner she was also the other kind of Before you do, she was a very good cabinet minister in the period when she was a cabinet minister.

28:33And I think a week ago, those doubts were around a lot. I think her intervention today will shift some of that. And I think if she wins in the party because she gets on the ballot, if there's an election, then the public will see her for the first time as prime minister. I mean, I don't know how that will go, but I don't think it's a fault. I mean, I think she's authentic and she's a good communicator. And if she gets the right people around her, all I'm saying is don't write her off. Yeah, no, I don't at all write her off. Let's go to the employment bill. If you were a Labour person, you would say is the big kind of domestic achievement of the first parliament, first period of this Labour government.

29:21What about, let's go to, in passing, you mentioned last week, someone I'd never heard of apologies Al Cairns you said a junior defense minister called Al Cairns I looked him up he's an incredible he's he's like got the military cross the DSO he's fought you know he's basically as far as I can see was in the SAS or the SBS they don't actually say that but in the bio but that's you know if you read between the lines that's what he's done I mean you only get the military cross if you are heroic on the battlefield it's not by kind of sucking up to the officers in the chateaus behind the lines. Quite an incredible event.

29:58He was actually a defence advisor to various Tory defence secretaries. And I wouldn't be surprised if you looked at them and thought, I could do the job better. He enters Parliament. Give me one minute on him. It looks like he will enter the contest. And it's a good way for him. He's a classic example of why not enter? Because I'm booking my place in the cabinet if I lose. He's not in the cabinet at the moment. And if I win, brilliant. I think the thing to remember is to get into this contest, you have to get 81 nominations yourself, with the 81st being you. And that is a high hurdle. I mean, I've interviewed Al Cairns on Good Morning Britain in recent months because he went and climbed Everest during the Easter recess.

30:48I mean, put up or shut up. Al Cairns knows what it's like to put up on the battlefield. But it's one thing to have a good backstory. Even people who come through the middle normally have, like, you know, a deep political apprenticeship. Think of John Major. Think of David Cameron. I mean, they were not political newbies in the way Al Cairns is. And I mean, it would be such a meteoric elevation in opposition, maybe. But into prime minister that fast. I think if he could get in the ballot, then it would be interesting to see how he performed. But I think, you know, at the moment, if you said to me, Al Cairns can get 30 nominations, I'd say, well, that's pretty impressive.

31:36But he's got to get more than twice that. So I don't think it's easy for him to get on. Well, talking about backstories, someone who hasn't got a very good backstory is Ed Miliband in that he's a kind of North London intellectual who was leader of the Labour Party, you know, was lost in 2005, sorry, 2015. And, you know, didn't convince people he could be prime minister with things like eating a bacon sandwich and all that. Might have been very unfair. I was on the other side of that prosecuting the campaign against him. But, so the backstory is not great, but highly experienced, former leader of the Labour Party, knows the Labour Party back to front, has won the contest before for Labour leader, beat his brother, who was at the time the favourite, knows the unions back to front, seemed to be on the kind of soft left of the party.

32:31And I would say as a cabinet minister, you know, there are lots of people and lots of conservatives disagree with his energy policy and think, you know, we should be pulling more oil out of the North Sea and so on. But I think if you looked at the energy department, you would say, unlike the government generally, there's a plan. He's got a plan. He's stuck with it. He's got conviction. The civil servants like him. He's, you know, he's an administrator. The story out of his department, you might, as I say, you might not like the policy, but that it's being kind of well executed. it he's governing and you know so he's got a kind of he's got an executive story to tell as well um and can we just dispense we'll talk about his his merits i mean dispense this idea that he's going to be the caretaker prime minister for andy burnham i mean the idea that you know he'll be the prime minister while we wait for andy burnham to turn up i mean unless unless ed milliband who i

33:24George Osborne: know pretty well you know has changed dramatically he'll be like i'm not not anyone's caretaker thank Thank you very much.

33:30Ed Balls: I think the speculation is that he might be the caretaker or placeholder on the ballot while Andy Burnham sees if he can win his by-election. Why would he do that? Well, I think the answer is this, that who are the two most effective, authentic communicators in the Cabinet? Wes Streeting and actually Ed Miliband, because Ed Miliband has found his place, for all the reasons you said, but in the 2015 election, That was a constrained and uptight Ed Miliband. He's so much more relaxed himself, and he's very, very popular amongst members, although whether the members who like him in his cabinet job want him to be the person who's becoming prime minister is, I think, is a bigger challenge, because, as you say, they're choosing somebody to win in the next general election against Nigel Farage.

34:24But I think Ed Miliband would think, I don't want West Streeting. and therefore if there's a risk that West Streeting goes by default, wins by default, if it was just West Streeting versus Keir Starmer, I think Ed Miliband would think, well, if Andy Burnham's not going to be in, I'm going to be in because I don't want to see. And I think part of the challenge with Wes is in policy terms, he's broadened. And in communication terms, he's excellent. but I'm not sure whether in personnel terms that he has sort of broadened enough yet to appeal across the parliamentary party. That will be the debate going on internally, whether or not, whether Wes reaches across the party.

35:12But on the other hand, you know, if you want a communicator, it's really good. yeah i think um yeah he's there's a sort of touch of youth to him which is could work in both ways in this kind of way it worked for david cameron and it worked for turning yeah yeah but they were in opposition um yeah opposition as well right so and well and and yes normally in there um so on just let's talk about a couple other people i mean first of all worth noting and striking that Rachel Reeves is not a contender at all. Half of all prime ministers have been chancellor. It doesn't mean that half all chancellors, as I know it's my cost, become prime minister.

35:55But, you know, even though she has today the best economic numbers she's ever got, you know, been able to announce in two years with the economy growing by 0.6 percent and the best in the G7, she is just not a runner at all. Shabana Mahmood, lots of speculation about her in the months leading up to this, but it doesn't look like she's in the contest either. I will say it, you can't comment. Yvette, Foreign Secretary, you know, given that Rachel is not a runner at all, she's the most senior woman, and the Labour Party have not had a female, not elected a female leader, and they haven't had a female prime minister, even though the Conservatives have had three female prime ministers, some better than others.

36:39George Osborne: um so i and she's on probably in the sort of you know sort of factionless and very senior very experienced i don't know i mean if i was her not that i'm not even sure she listens to our podcast but if she does uh uh yeah i was i think yeah definitely why not have a go um every week i say to her did you listen to our podcast and she says um i've not got around to it yet and i think the reasons because she's always for slightly you know on on tenterhooks about what we might have said and so anyway you know i'll tell her to listen to your bit yeah i i would think she has a pretty good shot if you in these contests you just don't know what's going to happen you know without being too cliche you need to be in it to win it and uh the kind of experienced senior female looks pretty attractive to the low body at the moment um it said there's no other runner i mean we've done the sort of wild card, which is Al Cairns.

37:36Burnham, come back to him. You seriously think there is a kind of path where either... I can see the path this time that says I'm going in the autumn after the Labour conference or even next spring or something. But I can't see otherwise how you get Burnham in. I think the problem is if you need this to draw the line in order that you can then have a two-year run to the general election with a new prime minister, you don't want the kind of the Burnham ghost hanging around the whole time. And look, it might be that the if there's an election quickly and a new prime minister and storms ahead, and that's sort of the end of it.

38:16But there will be bumps on the road, because this is a challenging parliament to be a prime minister. So I think lots of people would think, you know, and he might lose his by-election. And he actually might lose the leadership election, because there are debates to be had. But do you want to become the... I mean, look, of course, in the end, you want to be the leader and the prime minister, but it would be easier if Andy Burnham had been defeated. It's a bit like saying in Tony... Well, you say it's easier, but it might not be easier to become the leader and prime minister if he's on the back.

38:50It's a bit like the Tony Blair people saying in 1994 it would have been better if Gordon had run. But I mean... Yeah, with hindsight. It's all crinkly rude to say. That's what some people used to say. But actually, I don't know. Look, I think if I were, if I'd become the new leader, become the prime minister, I would actually get Andy Burnham in to my cabinet through a by-election, make him home secretary and then say, sort it all out for us, Andy. And, you know, he might then become the next prime minister. So, you know, I don't think keeping him out as the outside of glaring for Manchester is the right political strategy.

39:26Now, listen, there's going to be lots of time to talk about what a new leader should do. We're going to actually cover it on our podcast. And, you know, what direction the Labour Party should head in. There's a whole big question of whether you should have an early general election, because, of course, you know, there are lots of counter examples there. Gordon Brown left it too long. John Major did leave it long and won. so we can discuss all of that but I don't think I'm betraying too much when I say that Ed and I did a you know we were talking a couple of months ago about Keir Starmer and you did say to me I don't think he's going to be there by the end of the year and I was like really it's so hard to get rid of a prime minister we you know this was all thinking well the local elections will be bad but so you did tell me a couple of months ago you thought it was it was probably curtains we don't know but it looks to me like certainly the curtains are being drawn whether they're whether they're drawn shut today we will find out look it's not impossible to turn this round but but Keir Starmer in the meetings he has with backbenchers and ministers and in his cabinet as well as in his public speech has to show people that there is a you know an acceptance of what's gone wrong a humility a a something which you believe will lead to better governing that we've seen in the last couple of years.

40:47It's been so chaotic, the decision-making in Downing Street, and that he can reach out to the public and reconnect. And absent that, there's going to be a change. I just don't even... But the problem even with that strategy is, if you try to do that now, if you manoeuvre your way out of this week's mess, you've still got Andy Burnham, who's not an MP. And so you haven't put off. You have to kind of bring it to a head. And it's so hard to do when one of the contenders isn't there. Of course, you know what would happen. If Keir Starmer, you know, West Streeting's people are saying maybe he's going to announce the timetable.

41:29And he could announce a timetable for him to leave in September or Christmas or even in the middle of next year. And I think if he did that, West Streeting and others would back off and allow that to occur. once he said he's going then in a typically british way there'd be a big a be a big reappraisal i mean you know why are we getting rid of this guy kia starman he's actually he's really good he's so solid he's so dependable he's so stable and so that might be the best way for him to um to turn around his public opinion polling and actually maybe his place in history yes and i've always as a person i've always had a lot of time for him well we've just stopped being live on that segment of our podcast, live on YouTube.

42:13Do subscribe to us on YouTube and you'll see us performing there. But if you're now listening to the regular podcast, we're picking up from that live broadcast. And literally, as we've just pressed stop on the live,

42:29George Osborne: we see the news that Wes Streeting has resigned. Now, it's not clear at this moment, which is just after one o 'clock in the afternoon, that he's got the numbers. So I think essentially the podcast hasn't yet dated. And I think the big questions of who are going to be the runners and riders and where Andy Burnham is and what Keir Starmer's next move all stay. What about, Ed, what do we hear from Wes Streeting's resignation letter? It's just been published.

42:56Ed Balls: So his letter is out. He has not yet said he's triggering a leadership contest. And so therefore, the questions that we asked in our live podcast, will he have the numbers? Can he get to 81? Is he going to wait to see if Keir Starmer responds by himself standing down and setting a timetable? If he does get the numbers, will other candidates be in? If he doesn't get the numbers and Keir Starmer carries on, what kind of premiership is this going to look like in the coming weeks? All those things are still live. But there are a few interesting things in the letter. He says about the contest, if it happens and when it happens, it needs to be broad and it needs the best possible field of candidates.

43:39Ed Balls: So that is Wes Streeting, I think, saying that he would prefer to see Andy Burnham on the ballot. He says it's now clear, this is to Keir Starmer, you will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election. and that Labour MPs and Labour unions want the debate about what comes next to be a battle of ideas, not of personalities or petty factualism. I mean, this is undoubtedly West Streeting going for it. And this afternoon, in the coming days, the coming weeks and months, this is now going to utterly dominate British politics and, let's be honest, destabilise the British government. And so, you know, we're going to be keeping a close eye on this in the podcast in the coming period.

44:24Ed Balls: But there is also a question about what the Labour government does now, almost independent of whether the Prime Minister is Keir Starmer or West Streeting or Andy Burnham. You know, how do they turn round these terrible local election results? They're terrible standing in the opinion polls. After the break, we're going to have a look, as you said earlier, George, at the potential templates. Very interesting piece by William Hague in The Times directing us to the success of centre-left government in Australia and in Canada. And luckily, our roving correspondent, George Osborne, has been in Ottawa in the last 48 hours.

45:07And George, you're going to report from Canada after the break.

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45:57George Osborne: So welcome back. As I was saying earlier, I just got off a plane from Ottawa, a rather rainy and cold Ottawa, it has to be said, although in Toronto it was nice and sunny the day before. It's quite an austere place, isn't it, Ottawa? I'd actually never been before, but it reminds me of one of those kind of great sort of Scottish cities. It's all kind of made out of heavy stone and rather imposing and imperial. But Mark Carney, the prime minister there, very familiar to people living here. He is doing really well as prime minister. He's been there for over a year now. He won an election, not as well as people thought he might, although it was still a big upset compared to where people thought the election was going before he arrived in Canadian politics.

46:44George Osborne: But he got elected with a minority. But over the last year, he's managed to persuade people from other parties. Or in fact, I think they've persuaded themselves. I don't think he did a big kind of operation to lure over defectors. They volunteered, they've come from other parties. He's got a very narrow majority. But his party is ahead. And more More to the point, he is a head of his party, which is definitely the right way around if you're a party leader. He's a very popular, confident prime minister, very much seen as being in charge. And he is on the centre left. He's a liberal. Definitely in the centre is as important as the left in that statement.

47:20George Osborne: But he was cited by Angela Rayner and William Hague this week as examples to follow. So two of the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese. And as you're going to hear from Mark Carney and Anthony Albanese in these clips we've got for you, they have changed their policies and reorientated their governments to meet the challenges of the age. And that's evident in what they say here. We need builders. And it's part of the reason why earlier today we've brought back the level of the capital gains tax so that those who take those risks get the rewards from those risks that are there. Being straight, gas will play a role in renewables.

48:05We will need in coming years, we will need additional supply. And for all of the rhetoric of my predecessors, nothing happened in that decade. Nothing.

48:18George Osborne: so Ed it was striking wasn't it Angela Rayner cited the Canadian example because you know she's seen as very much to the left of the Labour Party Mark Harley is seen as a centrist politician she obviously looks to him as a successful example William Haig perhaps less surprisingly but I you know I declare an interest of course I work for him and he's a good friend of mine He's also said in his article in The Times, look, governing's hard, but Keir Starmer has made it look much harder than it needs to be. And Labour should take inspiration from the Canadians and the Australians. Within the Labour movement, do people keep an eye on what's going on in these other kind of like-minded countries?

49:01Ed Balls: They very much do. And very deep ties between the Labour Party and the Australian Labour Party. but also with politics in Canada as well. I think this is a really interesting conversation and William Hague's article and your observations are the kind of thing which would be in the mind of any potential successor to Keir Starmer taking over as Prime Minister. I think you can say the following things. First of all, the distinguishing thing about Mark Carney and Albanese is they both won elections against the background of Donald Trump hostility towards their two countries in trade terms. And that was the making of Mark Carney, but also it was destruction of Albanese's right of centre opponent who had been very Trump loving and then was outmaneuvered by Albanese.

50:03Ed Balls: Keir Starmer has done the same thing, but only very recently during the war. He didn't move to that kind of position earlier, although we've said on this podcast before, maybe sensibly because he didn't have an election to fight like in Australia and in Canada. But I think second, Mark Carney took over as an outsider from an unpopular leader, Justin Trudeau. And so he was, you know, the new leader on the block with a different philosophy, a different approach. He was rather more Andy Burnham than Ed Miliband in terms of whether you are, you know, an insider, Ed Miliband, or coming from the outside, Andy Burnham from Manchester.

50:46Ed Balls: Albelizi didn't have that reset as a new leader, but what he did do is kind of go out of his way to acknowledge mistakes which had been made in the past, in particular around the pledge, and to apologise for them to move on. In William Hague's article, he says the most important thing, and those quotes get to that, was changing their political and philosophical standing, making a clear political and philosophical choice to govern more from the centre than from the left. And he cites, as we heard, Mark Carney cutting capital gains tax, having talked about taxing the wealthy, and Albanese embracing fossil fuel production, even as Australia moves towards more renewables-based energy.

51:32Ed Balls: And I think there are questions for Keir Starmer. Clearly, he's been doing that with Shabana Mahmood, and before that, Yvette, on asylum and immigration, although that's one of the things which is starting in question at the moment. There's a live debate in Labour around North Sea oil production. We haven't seen that kind of more wealth-orientated shift on taxation from the Treasury. But I actually think the most important thing is, a point you just made a moment ago, as William Hague says, governing is hard. But Carney and Albanese, Hague says, are competent chief executives. They do not cycle through endless cabinet secretaries, appoint ambassadors who reside in predictable scandals or fire senior civil servants to save their own skins.

52:17Ed Balls: They are both able to make the machinery of government, very similar in both cases to our own, respond to their wishes. And I think that is the big thing. Governing is hard and all politicians make mistakes and Albanese and Mark Keirley will make mistakes too. but you've got to make the government work for you and have a consistent approach to the people around you and the message of your government and your relations with the civil service and the last two years have just been shambolic it's shambolic everywhere it's been shambolic in Britain and I think I think that's actually the biggest contrast with Australia and with Canada there.

52:59Ed Balls: That's the thing I would also be wanting to learn from if I was Keir Starmer in number 10 or any potential successor.

53:06George Osborne: The problem is, though, I mean, Keir Starmer was supposed to be the kind of Mark Carney, Anthony Albanese type. You know, he'd been director of public prosecutions, he'd been a permanent secretary, he was supposed to be the competent administrator, he wasn't the most flashy, you know, politician, he wasn't a firebrand on the left, you know. And that's The one thing you thought you were getting for if you voted for him was, well, this guy's going to know how to run number 10 and run the cabinet and run the cabinet office. And what's your conclusion? No, and he's proved utterly incapable of doing that.

53:39George Osborne: As you say, cycling through cabinet secretaries, chiefs of staff, directors of communication. So the case for Starmer was that he was a competent administrator on the centre and opposite. You know, in a big contrast to Corbyn, who he replaced as Labour leader. and said the problem is, you know, I don't think he can rediscover the, let's be the competent administrator. And let's be honest, it seems pretty unlikely he's going to be around, hopefully still around by the end of this podcast. We're going to have a problem on this really being dated. But what I thought was interesting was Angela Rayner citing it, because I think she was, you wouldn't think of her as a sort of safe pair of hands, boring kind of, you know, administrator type.

54:22George Osborne: But she was, as we were discussing earlier, you know, she's got a reputation when she was in the cabinet of running her department well. And I think some of the other candidates, you know, one of the strongest reasons people are looking at Andy Burnham is because he seemed to have run Manchester pretty well as mayor of Manchester, and Ed Miliband in his department and so on. So the competent administrator is fine. But what Carney and Albanese have done is taken tough decisions. They've taken tough, politically tough decisions. You know, Carney has cut capital gains tax. That's against a climate where lots of left-wing politicians in the world, and for example, Democrats in the United States, in some states in the US, are calling for taxes on the wealthy.

55:00George Osborne: Billionaire taxes is very popular in California at the moment as a conversation. So he's done the opposite. He's cut capital gains tax, actually an echo of what Gordon Brown did when you were in the Treasury with him back in 2007-8. And Anthony Albanese has taken the decision to expand, as you were saying, fossil fuel production, despite all the promises on climate. And Mark Carney's done the same as well. And that's very counter to what, so the Labour government here, it abolished non-DOMs, it put up capital gains tax, and it stopped oil and gas exploration at a time when energy suddenly became a very precious resource.

55:36George Osborne: So, you know, the Labour, it would be quite a move for any of these new Labour leaders, if we do have a Labour leadership change to go, no, no, we're going to cut capital gains tax and we're going to start drilling in the North Sea.

55:48Ed Balls: I understand that. And I'm not saying that you don't have to be dexterous to meet challenges. And the question of North Sea oil production, we now have Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Rachel Reeves all urging Ed Miliband to make that move. And I think that is consistent with his renewable objectives. And he doesn't need to be dug in ideologically. I guess what I'm saying, though, is while you can make an argument that it's the Keir Starmer's problem is that he has been too left wing and he should come more to the centre ground. Although some people say he's been too much in the centre ground, he should move more to the left.

56:23Ed Balls: That will be the debate if there's a leadership contest. I mean, the fundamental problem is this. He's made tough decisions to cut the winter fuel allowance, to launch welfare reform, to tackle the farming community and inheritance tax. There's a myriad of them. And consistently, he then did U-turns on the tough decisions. And therefore, people ended up thinking, well, so what are you going to do? What do you stand for? In the end, I think the issue of consistent, competent governing, where you prepare the ground, make the argument, win the argument and stick to it. Remember that debate last September, October, November about whether taxes were going up in the budget or not?

57:06Ed Balls: I mean, it was utter shambles. That is not good governing. And you've not seen that from Albanese or from Carney. And, you know, I just think that it is right. You've got to be philosophically clear and you've got to choose the right policies. But you've also then got to stick with them and take people with you and communicate them and not just flail all over the place. That's the difference.

57:30George Osborne: There is, it's worth saying there's someone else who's a centre-left politician who's a great survivor and that is the leader of Spain Pedro Sanchez and he Spain was also cited by Angela Reyna in her letter earlier this week or her statement earlier this week and the interesting thing about him is he probably is more of a guide to where you might see a Labour leader go for a start he's in coalition with nationalists and that might well be outcome of the next general election he's in you know he's had to form a coalition with the Catalonian separatists that's been hugely controversial in Spain, and it would be hugely controversial if Labour had to govern with SNP votes after the next election.

58:07George Osborne: He's been very liberal on immigration, and he refuses to make the argument that almost every other European leader is making, which is immigration's bad. And immigration has gone right up in Spain. Now, I think it accounts for something like half of all EU immigration in the last year or two, which is kind of incredible. But the economy has done pretty well on the back of that. You get all the merging arguments you get when immigration is high about like housing costs and so on for local people. But he's had his fair share of scandals, to put it mildly. But he's also taken a very vociferous position on the Iran war.

58:42George Osborne: It doesn't look like, you know, Starmer was sort of pushed into it. You know, he started with a different approach to Trump, ended up, you know, now being his critic, although still quite mild-mannered in it. You know, Sanchez has been vehemently anti-Israel and the US. And I think you could imagine, let's imagine Prime Minister Angela Rayner. She's more likely to go into the Sanchez direction. She's not, you know, Carney and Albanese aren't really models for her. Although maybe they, you know, the country will be poorer for it as a result. But I think Carney and Albanese are more models for Andy Burnham, frankly.

59:22George Osborne: Or maybe a West Streeting even.

59:24Ed Balls: We're recording this podcast. It's now 1.30 on Thursday. I wonder whether by the end of the day we'll be talking about Health Secretary Angela Rayner, because of course West Streeting standing down means there was now going to be some form of reshuffle. Will Keir Starmer bring Angela Rayner back into his cabinet? Because he needs to fill that job immediately. But it's very clear what's going on here, I think, now. This is West Streeting ally speaking to Beth Rigby. Wes has the numbers, but taking the decision not to trigger challenge, immediate contest as clear that wouldn't be right. Kiernan needs to set out a timetable and allow the widest possible contest is the only way to rebuild from this mess.

1:00:05Ed Balls: This is Wes Streeting saying he wants Andy Burnham to have the time. He wants a broad-based contest. The question is, will we see other cabinet ministers coming out this afternoon and saying, no, Wes is wrong. Actually, we're just going to carry on or is is west streeting going to be saying some of the same things that shibana mood was um reporting the press to have said to keir starmer on monday uh night i think um they laid down a challenge the the starmer operation to west streeting and uh question

1:00:38George Osborne: has he called their bluff well we will know won't we at some point it's a one way either way whoever Whoever is leading the labor body might take a look at what's going on successfully in some other jurisdictions. Whoever is leading the labor body is also going to have to deal with Donald J. Trump and indeed the whole geopolitics of the U.S.-China relationship. And we are going to talk about that briefly next.

1:01:32We'll be right back. I get the job done. No bills in sight. What a life. Do right by yourself and your business and search XERO for your free trial. Conditions apply.

1:01:48Ed Balls: So welcome back. The first meeting in China of an American president, Donald Trump, with President Xi. Their first face-to-face meeting since October, but the first American president in China for nine years. And interesting to speculate about what's going to come out of this series of meetings and summits. This is what Trump said. We've had a fantastic relationship. We've gotten along. When there were difficulties, we worked it out. I would call you and you would call me. And whenever we had a problem, people don't know. Whenever we had a problem, we worked it out very quickly. and we're going to have a fantastic future together such respect for china the job you've done you're a great leader i say it to everybody you're a great leader sometimes people don't like me saying it but i say it anyway because it's true i only say the truth and i just want to say on behalf of all of the great delegation that we have we have the greatest businessmen the biggest and I guess the best in the world.

1:02:52We have amazing people and they're all with me. Every single one of them. So George, what do you think?

1:02:59Ed Balls: Has Donald Trump gone as a strong American president meeting a strong Chinese president for kind of head-to-head, on-the-level talks? Or is this a Donald Trump on tariffs, on the economy, on war and the Straits of Hormuz? is this a Donald Trump he's kind of a bit on the defensive and needing some favours? Well, it's interesting, you know, love a good visit to Beijing. I did a few of my time. And, you know, they're very transactional, as well as all the kind of grandeur of the

1:03:35George Osborne: great all the people and the, you know, Red Guard lined up and all of that. Despite the kind of stilted nature of the kind of conversation you often have with the Chinese president, just because it's translated and it's all quite stately. You know, the Chinese are very transactional, and I think they're being very transactional today from what I can gather. I'll come on to your point about power in a moment, but, you know, I think the Americans would have expected more from this summit. Let me just say, I think it's great the summit's happening. I think it's a good thing for the world that these two superpowers, the economic superpower of China and the kind of global superpower of the United States, are talking.

1:04:12George Osborne: I think the worst point in kind of global relations was just a few years ago, around the time of COVID, when China and the US weren't even talking or meeting. So I think it's a good thing they're meeting. But there's not much substance here. And I think the Americans would have hoped for a lot more of kind of actual tangible deliverables, as they're called at these events. You know, I think they were hoping for a China-US trade board. They were hoping for an agreement on China restricting the flow of fentanyl, that terrible drug, into the US. So there were things they were hoping for, and the Chinese haven't really given in.

1:04:47George Osborne: Now, they might do over the course of today, but they're using their leverage to say, hold on, we need this Strait of Hormuz situation sorted out. because, you know, one of the big victims in the sense of the restriction of the oil trade is China, which is a big importer of oil from the Gulf. So it's not turned out to be as substantive as you might think. And there aren't that kind of list of big achievements, which you would normally associate with a big visit like this. Just on power, I mean, yes, so Donald Trump obviously entangled in the Middle East. But, you know, it is a reminder he travels with, for example, just look at two of the people going with him, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, you know, NVIDIA, the manufacturer of the huge$5 trillion company that manufactures the chips the Chinese want.

1:05:33George Osborne: And one of their big asks is, please, can you let us buy some of your chips? Elon Musk, you know, manufacturing not just of electric cars, but SpaceX, the Starlink internet system. China don't have companies like that. They have some big companies like Alibaba and Tencent, but they don't have companies that have created a global internet system or a reusable space launch system. So American power is still strong and is perhaps reflected less in the actual person of the president than more in the traveling business delegation he's bringing with him.

1:06:06Ed Balls: I think in the next nine months, we're going to be regularly asking this question. How is Donald Trump and the Republicans looking for the midterms? And is the actions of the president, are they improving the prospects of Republicans in the midterm? Or is it inevitable that the Democrats take control of the Senate and the House in the second half of the term, which means Donald Trump becomes more of a lame duck. And I think if you start to make that the test of this visit, is he going to get the Boeing orders? Is he going to get continuation of the trade ceasefire, which has allowed Chinese exports of those rare earths coming to America vital for US technology?

1:06:49Ed Balls: is there going to be the soya bean deal which is so necessary for midwest farmers are the chinese going to put leverage onto iran which eases the um the oil price and the global economy and therefore eases the price pressures on american consumers i mean there was speculation that donald trump might be willing to give some language on um taiwan um but actually for him as a president, that might be a price worth paying in order to get those more retail outcomes, which he needs for domestic American political purposes. Now, there'll be a huge amount of pressure on him from the Republican Party, from MAGA in Congress, the American establishment, not to give ground to China.

1:07:37Ed Balls: But he's got elections in the autumn, and Donald Trump likes to win, and he needs the economy to be getting better. And so on this visit, in retail terms, he's thinking, what do I have to give to get stuff back I need? And that is the frame in which I think I'll be looking at the outcome of this trip. I think this is a Donald Trump who needs help.

1:07:59George Osborne: Yes, but China is not in such a strong position either. I mean, the Chinese economy has been in the doldrums for the last few years. They've got a terrible property situation there where, you know, essentially, you know, a load of Chinese middle class bought apartments that are worth less now than they paid for them. They've got a huge kind of credit problems in there internally. And despite having big stockpiles, their energy supplies from the Middle East are currently throttled in the Straits of Hormuz.

1:08:26Ed Balls: And if I'm a Midwest voter and Donald Trump says, you think it's bad for you, it's even worse for China, I'm not sure they care. What they want is progress here. And China does have leverage over things which matter to America.

1:08:40George Osborne: Yes, but America has leverage over things that matter to China. electric car sales is a big issue you know 15 of all new cars bought in britain in 2026 are chinese made that's an amazing fact last year was 10 the year before it was only 5 but they're not allowed in america and the american car lobby is desperate to stop them because they're frankly you know pretty well made and and um effective i thought it was fascinating that uh the nvidia boss is on the trip it was actually biden who banned the sale of nvidia chips to china now the NVIDIA boss is traveling with Trump to China. It's a pretty complicated, you know, in the end, they kind of need each other, these two countries.

1:09:19George Osborne: America needs, still needs China as a source of cheap manufacturing and to some degree a market for American products. And China needs the US and its markets. And the two of them have an interest in stability. Well, certainly the Chinese do, and the Americans should understand that they do. And so, yeah, I think it's a pretty interesting meeting and who knows.

1:09:44Ed Balls: There is one fundamental difference though which is President Xi doesn't need Donald Trump's help to do well in his mid-term democratic elections whereas Donald Trump does and sometimes being the leader of the world's largest democracy makes things tougher than being the leader of the world's largest dictatorship. They've both got leaders who

1:10:06George Osborne: quite like to go on and on, whatever their constitutions have said.

1:10:11Ed Balls: But President Xi has showed himself quite able to change the constitution to extend his stay in power and his powers while he's there. Donald Trump would love to do all of that. That's why he's so envious, but that is not in his grasp. That is all we've got time for this week on what has been a fast moving and complex edition of Political Currency.

1:10:32George Osborne: Yes, it's been quite a week. We may well have more hot takes as things develop. And we know that our listeners in Canada and also our listeners in high places in Australia will be paying attention. And this is a good way for them to check in on how you could be doing things much worse.

1:10:49Ed Balls: In fact, we're going to come back to chatting about Australia and Britain in our EMQs this week, which will be out on Monday, where we answer all your biggest political questions and respond to your ideas.

1:11:02George Osborne: If you can't wait until Monday, of course, you can get the episode early and ad free by becoming a member of our kitchen cabinet and a gold subscriber.

1:11:10Ed Balls: Plus a mug, a members only chat and bonus content too.

1:11:15George Osborne: And remember, we've got our newsletter that gives you our up to date thoughts on news as it develops over the next few days. So you don't necessarily have to wait for our next podcast or hot take.

1:11:26Ed Balls: And if you want to send us in questions for EMQs, messages on social media or email us, preferably a voice note to questions at politicalcurrency.co.uk. And we will see you on Monday for EMQs. See you then.

1:11:47Thanks for listening to Political Currency. This has been a Persephoneca production.

1:12:21We'll be right back. No bills in sight. What a life. Do right by yourself and your business and search XERO for your free trial. Conditions apply. Hello podcast listener. Hello you. It's me, Greg James. And me, Alice Levine. Now look, I know that you're very much enjoying this podcast that you're listening to and we're sorry to interrupt. We really are. And it genuinely might not be our place to say, but is it time to try something new? We would like to steal you for our new podcast. It's called Bad Chat. And it sounds a bit like this. This one goes out to the walkers and the talkers and the late night.

1:13:00Stalkers. Stalkers. Maybe not that one. Alice is my best friend. I am not Alice's best friend. Do you know that horses' legs are their fingers? That is a bit of Bad Chat. From me, Greg James. And me, famously, Alice Levine. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

1:13:21Thank you.