OpenAI DevDay, Jamie Dimon’s Op-Ed, Valley Bank CEO Interview 9/29/26

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1:04And welcome to Tech Tuesday. Seema Modi is here today, and there are two really big events happening. Number one, OpenAI's Developer Day is underway in San Francisco. Sam Allman delivering his keynote address. He spoke with Kate Rooney, who will join us shortly at the same time on the other coast. President Trump hosting a summit with top AI leaders at the White House. Some of the most important names in the industry are there. Satya Nadella, Jeff Bezos, Dario Amadei, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Wong, Sundar Pichai, Seema, and more. All your buddies. Yes, exactly. Stocks lower, though, across the board.

1:36The Dow is down about 300 points at this hour on pace for its worst September in three years. The pressure point is yields. The 30-year hitting its highest level in nearly 25 years, just as consumer confidence sinks to a more than decade low. With bonds, the consumer equities all flashing caution. Can this market keep its footing? That's the question. Well, we'll try to get some answers to that. But we're going to begin with one of the biggest AI companies on the planet. That is OpenAI. It just unveiled a new line of autonomous AI agents, basically programs that can do things for you. They are named after the delicious gummy candy of my youth.

2:14They're called Dots. Kate Rooney has more on what we have heard, including highlights from her interview with Sam Altman. Kate. Hey, Sally. Well, I just left the keynote inside, as you mentioned, Dots. That is the headline of the day. This is these autonomous AI agents that can work on your behalf. You can name your dot. And it is in a lot of ways similar to what Mark Zuckerberg laid out last week with their Muse agents. So that was the big one. I want to bring you a quote from Altman on stage. He said they are remarkably capable. Describe them as these always-on agents to handle really anything you can think of, as he put it.

2:51He said it brings AI into a new form factor. and says it gives you more time and attention to do the things that you care about. So think of this as a way to offload work, have these agents work in the background. Meta did actually dip on the news. I believe it's recovered since, but clearly competitive with what Meta and Mark Zuckerberg have rolled out. Also want to bring you some news about a new model. This is GPT 6.1 Sol. So it is an upgrade to a model that they actually just released last week. They also have a new pro plan,$500 plan includes access, they say, to ultra fast processing. So this is for those power users of Codex and ChatGPT that need much faster processing, but they're going to have to pay more.

3:34Weekly actives. And Brian, this is a question. How many of those 1.2 billion users worldwide are actually using it and how often? It is weekly actives, but that's the new number in terms of how widely used ChatGPT is. It's$1.2 billion. And then also in terms of Codex and ChatGPT work, it's 35 million people. So those are new numbers. We did also just confirm a funding headline, guys, that OpenAI is looking to raise as much as$30 billion in private markets. This would value the company at$1.4 trillion, with a T, above$1 trillion just in private markets. This is according to a source familiar with the matter.

4:14Bloomberg did report this one first. But we have talked to a source who says it's in early discussion. So no term sheet has been signed yet from what we're hearing. $30 billion is possible. But again, it's based on investor demand. Clearly, there are private market investors coming to them with term sheets from what we've heard. And they just raised about$122 billion just back in March. But if the money's there, it seems like they're seeing demand. And from what we're hearing, it is possible that this company continues to raise money ahead of an IPO, which we expect to come at some point next year, guys.

4:45Wow, a lot happening. New agents and also a potentially new fundraising round. Kate, thank you. Let's now get instant reaction from OpenAI's announcements. Joining us is Nate Yohannes, president of Data and AI Labs at Zeta Global. He's previously held senior AI roles at Meta and Microsoft. If that wasn't enough, he's also a venture investor backing companies like SpaceX. First, your reaction. Nate, it's a pleasure to have you on. Well, first of all, thank you. What a big day for AI. So I really appreciate you having me today. I mean, so is Zeta live. Of course, of course. We're live for now. And reacting to what OpenAI just revealed at the same time leaders meeting in Washington to convene around AI regulation.

5:22But from what you've gathered so far on dots, would you characterize this as OpenAI's most aggressive push yet into AI agents? Well, I certainly would say it's a step change, especially on the enterprise side of it. So dots and spaces I find to be quite remarkable as we think about proactive collaboration, collaboration, not only an agent really supporting a user's journey, but also collaborating with your peers as well. So I certainly see that as a step change. See, one thing that really pops out is that 1.2 billion weekly active users. That's a very large footprint for OpenAI to really snap to these net new product launches.

5:56I guess one thing the market is trying to understand is how big of a lead Meta Muse already has in this market. And if Dots has a chance to gain some of that market share that Meta has been able to scoop up over the past couple of weeks. Yes, certainly. First, let's think about the fact that Muse is free for all users. And that's going to be really important to note, while Dots is for Pro and Pro Plus, I believe. And so that's one key aspect. The other aspect is going to be, you know, with Muse, its ability to snap to Meta's family of apps. And, you know, as we see the DAO of individuals on these applications, that makes for a much more stickier user experience.

6:32And so, you know, Muse is now the second fastest downloaded consumer app behind ChatGPT. And certainly going to be a strong race ahead. With the AI at the end of the name, I could see where somebody could call it Metasmucil, which would not probably be a good branding or marketing thing. It depends on what day of the week. Correct. That said, you guys at Zeta do an unbelievable job at collecting billions of data points. How does AI change the way marketing tech, fintech exist with the world? How does it change the way that you guys get your data? Well, first of all, I would want to first say that AI is embedded into our business from the very beginning, the inception of it.

7:13So you think about our core offering as an AI infrastructure company that certainly serves a lot of marketing and advertising. It's really imperative to have AI go through the billions and trillions of data points to help drive proactive recommendations for our consumers to drive a better relevant experience. And so as we think through these leapfrog moments, and Zeta is certainly a part of it as a strategic partner with OpenAI and Palantir, it's instrumental to note that these core step changes really advance our product and our customers really see it. Sam Altman today in conversation with our colleague Kate Rooney talked about AI regulation, how they're sort of trying to walk this fine line, make sure they have the best and most robust large language model.

7:57But at the same time, it doesn't create a security risk. What do you think the answer is and how they tackle that? Well, you know, I want to first by just addressing that safety and trust can't fail for any business. Trust pays interest and trust pays dividends. And so it's really imperative for the consumer to have those trustworthy alignments with the company. And so as we think through these proactive agents that are living with us and that are always on, it's going to be critical that we build the trust within the systems at hand. And so as we as we see today on two sides of the coast, you know, a lot of Silicon Valley's in Washington.

8:33And today was a big announcement out of Silicon Valley or San Francisco. It's a balancing act of pushing the boundaries of innovation while certainly having the guardrails to protect consumers. OK, so you you did work at the U.S. Small Business Administration. So you were part of the federal government before you had your role in the private sector. As a former big shot in D.C., fair to say, what is the government's role here? Because I don't trust Congress entirely to be ahead of the curve on technology. And I'm trying to be really nice with my words because I, you know. Well, Brian, first, my mom would agree that I was a big shot in D.C.

9:15I don't know if that's the case, but she certainly would. Well, she's always right, obviously. Always, always. Well, you know, if we think about the trust across both legislators as well as the company, I mean, the technology companies, there is certainly a recent Reuters poll shared that, you know, a lot of the users have some level of just trust of some of the AI providers. And certainly, as you've addressed, that there is some level of, you know, skepticism around legislators. But what's going to be mission critical is that both work hand in hand to drive the agenda of advancing technology for the greater good of humanity.

9:52Breakthroughs in scientific research and education. We do not want to hinder innovation. At the same time, we want to build that trust and protect consumers while being the world leader in artificial intelligence. So I see it as a balancing act between, let's say for all intents and purposes, Washington and Silicon Valley. Palantir CEO Alex Karp, just one of many CEOs who's at the White House right now. Now, Palantir put out this ad in the Wall Street Journal today, basically calling the Frontier Labs wolves and that you cannot give all your data to the labs without using some type of security layer.

10:22He's also made the point that the lab should be nationalized in order to share the liability risk. Do you agree with that? Well, certainly Alex Karp is one with his words. And looking at the ad, I did not see that. I don't know if I can necessarily could say I agree with that per se. One thing that's relatively certain is that what we want to make sure is that data is being protected in this whole notion of sovereign data. Because if you think about the key of any business, especially if you allow the model providers into your deepest aspects of your business, is making sure that your data is being highly secured and really being leveraged for the advantage of the enterprise.

11:04And that's why we see this big wave of open source and this notion of data sovereignty and protection. And certainly Jensen has put his name in the ring as being arguably a world leader, an open source with the acquisition hugging face. And we've articulated yesterday around AI safety and sovereignty. Nate Yohannes, Zeta Global, and look forward to your big event next week as well, by the way. Thank you, Brian. On the 8th. Nate Yohannes, thank you very much. Thanks. All right. So we heard from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman earlier this hour. But this afternoon, OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer will join us in the 3 o 'clock Eastern Time Hour for another interview.

11:37Big topics, different interests. Join us for that. All right, we've got a lot more coming up here on Power Lunch, including Jamie Dimon sounding off on the state of the Western world and what the U.S. and Europe should do if we want to preserve global leadership. Plus, we just kind of talked about it. Meta's Muse. It's going to disrupt traditional banks, but how much, we'll ask the CEO of a bank. But first, is the market as healthy as we think? That is the big question. We'll talk about it with Goldman Sachs asset management, Tim Urbanovic, as the NASDAQ 100 just went positive. Stick around.

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13:34Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms.

13:41All right, welcome back. You know this. We're going to tell you something you know. AI has lifted the stock market to record high after record high after record high. You know that. The S &P 500 is up more than 12 % this year. You know that. But if you listen to many of our guests, there could be more room to run because the median year in Target and our latest CNBC market strategist survey is 8 ,000, about 5 % above current levels. Again, you know that. But did you know this? We crunched the data. And as of yesterday morning, 194 members of the S &P 500 have lost 20 % or more from their 52-week highs, 20 % or more from the highs in one year, putting them in a technical bear market.

14:26That means, and maybe you didn't know this, 38 % of the S &P 500 is in a technical bear market. Leading the declines, Fair Isaac Corporation, which is the biggest decliner today, CoStar, Fiserv, Insolent, and Intuit. A lot of companies, a lot of big names that you know have been left behind. It leads us to the question, is this rally really as healthy as it seems on the surface? Tim Urbanois is chief investment strategist for Innovator from Goldman Sachs Asset Management. I am not being negative. If you own ETFs and the markets go up and ETFs go up because those stocks go up and video, whatever goes up, maybe you don't care.

15:13My point from that and digging out that data was that 38 % is in a bear market. That doesn't seem super healthy to me, Tim. Not as healthy as your bears last night, but that's a different point. Well, it's very clear, Brian. There's pockets of this market that can handle higher interest rates. There's pockets of this market that cannot. And if you look at the market broadly, it's very clear that the AI CapEx spending cycle is breaking the typical macro cycle. I think that's what you're seeing play out right now. But AI is also masking some of the ugliness that we're seeing under the hood, as sort of Brian alluded to, a number of stocks trading well below their highs.

15:53What does that tell you about sort of AI versus non-AI and how investors are positioned? Well, Sam, I think if you look at the hit we've seen to valuations in the S &P 500 right now, we attribute that back to rates. We've seen valuations come down about 14 % this year at the aggregate level. And right now, we really think there's a game of chicken going on between valuations and earnings growth, AI driving significant, significant earnings growth at the index level as a whole. Not everybody underneath the surface is seeing that, but in aggregate, that's really what you're getting to. And again, it's that massive amount of earnings that investors are being paid right now because of the spending that's taking place.

16:33It's also the expectation of future earnings, and specifically with the AI build-out, which whether it's power scarcity or issues on the ground with building these data centers, a story I've been watching really closely is the Oracle Project Jupiter in New Mexico, which is a force majeure that it sent to its financier. Is that going to happen? It sent the letter. Now we will see how that party responds. But it clearly illustrates the physical and political constraints of the AI build out. How do you think investors are sort of taking this in, knowing that the return on investment could take longer than expected?

17:04Well, I think that's why if you look at what our view is right now, we've turned neutral on U.S. equities overall. And it's not to say that the earnings aren't coming. But as an investor, any time that we're taking risk, we want to make sure that we're being adequately compensated to take that risk. And there's some margin for error. And right now, if you look at valuations where they are, we've come down significantly, but we're still sitting right around 10-year average levels. And if you look at what that forward PE is based on, it's based on almost 20 % earnings growth next year. That is not typically something that you see outside of recovery periods.

17:38Again, not saying it's not going to happen, but we're turning our attention right now to relative value. and we think that we're being compensated better outside of the U.S. Okay. Outside of the U.S., we'll get to, I want to talk about inside the U.S. as quickly. Tim, are any of your clients calling you up and saying, Tim, listen, I've doubled my money in the stock market the last four or five years. I've made a fortune. But you know what? A 5 % 10-year yield looks pretty good, considering how much money I made. Are any of your clients suggesting that they want to or thinking about shifting out of stocks and into bonds because they've done so well in the market, they're just a little bit nervous right now.

18:18Well, Brian, I think you're clearly seeing that. The move that you're seeing higher in interest rates has been driven by real yields, which is not something that we've seen in a while. And investors are being paid on cash a pretty good number right now. So I think if you look at some of the weakness that we saw yesterday in gold, we think that was part of it, that there's competition for capital right now. And certainly, you look at everything going on. I mean, you know, we specialize in risk management using options-based strategies. Risk management is very, very key right now. And clients are continuing to look for pockets of how to do that.

18:51Cash is obviously a play. Gold is a play. And then we're looking at other alternatives. Quickly, outside the U.S., the top market you're invested in? So right now, we're very bullish on emerging markets. Particularly, we think that, you know, the South Korea-Taiwan trade, which makes up about 50 % of the EM index, that's giving us access to the AI story at a significant discount relative to to what you're seeing in the U.S. So it's all about that supply chain. But outside of the U.S. where it's cheaper and we're being paid more to do it. South Korea, though, man, it's like watching Case Keenum last night.

19:22Like I just kind of keep waiting for something to happen because that market is a roller coaster. It is a roller coaster. I understand the valuations are lower, Tim. But my gosh, I mean, people in South Korea go to bars to watch people trade. It's a hobby watching people, not watching football, watching people trade stocks and crypto is a spectator sport in South Korea. No, Brian, we're long-term investors. And so over the next few years, we think that's where the best pocket of opportunity is. Because, again, it's about how do we access the AI supply chain, where all of this spending is going, right, that we're being paid earnings on right now.

19:56And, again, those are the pockets that we think are going to benefit the most. I mean, the two names there, SK Hynix and Samsung, They comprise a big portion of that stock market that you were just talking about. We can go watch trade. Yeah, we could. You can go to a bar in Korea and watch people trade stocks. You know, I personally would be interested in trying that out with you. We'll go over to Seoul. Let's do the show. To a bar. They're probably watching, what, their version of a brokerage or CNBC to see real time. I don't know what time it is. I don't know what they're watching. We can figure it out.

20:25Tim Urbanovic from Innovator at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Tim, it's a real pleasure. Great to be with you. Thanks for joining us. It's safe travels, by the way, back to Chicago. Thank you. All right. It's time now for the bond report. Yields extending their run to multi-year highs. The 30-year yield rising four basis points to 5.61 percent. It's highest level since 2002. Check that out. The benchmark 10-year yield also adding four basis points to 5.28 percent. And with the September bond route still underway, October may bring a little relief. If the ongoing war with Iran, hawkish Fed could keep bond investors on edge.

21:01The CME FedWatch tool shows the odds of another quarter point rate hike in October nearing 70 percent. All right, coming up on Power Lunch, there is still time for the U.S. and Europe to revive the Western world's leadership, writes Jamie Dimon in a new op-ed in The Wall Street Journal today. But he says they need to act now. More on that next.

21:31Hi, I'm Roman Mars, host of 99 % Invisible. It's a podcast about all the thought that goes into things most people don't even think about. You're going to see stories everywhere. Follow and listen to 99 % Invisible wherever you get your podcasts. Weren't agents supposed to take things off your plate? Building another to handle the others is a bit much. Don't make more work out of work. Gemini is the one agent that knows all parts of your business and actually gets stuff done. You give it a project, close your laptop, and when you come back, the job's finished. No matter your industry or role, your agent has the skills to help every team stay in their flow.

22:08Seriously, make work less work with Gemini on Google Cloud. Check response, subscription required. This holiday, all plans, even unlimited, are just$15 a month. A holiday deal this good obviously deserves an enormously expensive holiday song, like all I want. Right. Okay, we can afford that. You know what? Forget the music budget. We're going to stick with whatever's in the public domain. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only.

22:41Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, you may have heard about him. He's laying out his vision to revive the future of the Western world. In a new op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, emphasizing the importance of Europe rebooting its sluggish economy and strengthening its defense capabilities in that op-ed, Diamond says, quote, a renewed commitment to American values and alliances coupled with bold reforms by Europe would be a geopolitical and economic home run, guaranteeing the Western world's strength for the next, you know, 250 years.

23:15Let's talk about this all with Michelle Caruso-Gabrera, CEO of MCC Global Enterprises, former colleague, current CNBC contributor. Michelle, what are the odds that we get bold and exciting capitalist-style reforms from whoever is running Europe these days? Yeah, Europe. It's a lot of countries. I didn't want to do the air quotes. I thought about it. Yeah. It's going to be very, very difficult. I think that's why Jamie Dimon issued this call to arms. What he said actually has been said many, many times. What's really significant isn't so much what he says, but the fact that he says it. At the G20 meeting last month in Asheville, North Carolina, he was there, Brian.

23:58And there were other dignitaries there. But let me tell you, when he walked into the room, you could see the international press swarmed him because they wanted to hear from him. So he has a huge platform and he's got a lot of mindshare in the world. So if anybody can dislodge the Europeans, maybe he can, because many, many people have said what he has said in this op-ed over and over again. They've got to deregulate. They've got to allow scale so they compete. They need to do so many things so that way they can pay for help pay for their defense as well. And their energy, by the way, and this week's my primary topic in the forthcoming Power Insider is about Europe's energy crisis.

24:39And they've been kind of saved by actually mild weather three of the last four years, the summer. not the case. I only bring that up and we're doing the air quotes, Michelle, because each country has their own ruling parties, right? And they've got all their things. And then you've got this weird EU parliament in Belgium, which is kind of in charge, but kind of not. And there's like a bunch of people there, but you don't really know what they're doing. It feels like the whole leadership structure of Europe, again, air quotes, is broken. And maybe that's what needs to be fixed, because there's a lot of really, really smart and hardworking people in Europe.

25:11And what they're doing is they're largely now just moving to the United States if they can. Yes, the EU, this blanket over all of these countries has clearly led to a lot of frustrations within the populations of each of the individual countries. And therefore, you see voting going in different directions. There's less of people who want more Europe and there's a lot more people who want less of Europe. At the same time, some countries have really just shot themselves in the foot when it comes to energy. Germany, for example, under Angela Merkel, banning nuclear energy and as a result, building coal plants instead and having to rely on imports either from Russia or other expensive imports, which really is leading to the de-industrialization of Europe, Germany in particular because of rising energy costs and also because of the huge competition that they're seeing from subsidized automobiles from China.

26:07Well, so what do you think it will take, Michelle, for Europe in general to seek more coordination with the U.S.? I'm thinking even with AI, they're pursuing their own regulatory framework versus trying to coordinate with Washington on the right guardrails for AI policy. Unfortunately, it's probably going to take a crisis. It almost always does. If you go back to 2010 to 2015, Greece was in a major, major crisis. They had to default on their debt. And what do you see today after that crisis? Greece's debt trades better than France. France is now on the same trajectory as Greece with their social spending, their inability to pay for defense.

26:48At some point, they're going to have an issue. And that's when changes are likely to happen. That's almost always what it takes to move away from an inertia to actual action. Do you think this gives China an opportunity to step up and play nice with Europe? I mean, I know they're already trying to. They are trying to, but this is the one place where we see actually some unity coming together, Seema. It's very interesting. When you see what's happening to the German auto industry, data coming out of there, you'll hear the union say 10 ,000 jobs per month are being lost when it comes to industry in Germany.

27:25And that's in large part because of what's happening in the chemical industry and the automobile industry because of subsidized products from China. And we finally hear talk about some kind of either continental response or something to try to push back against that so that way they don't suffer deindustrialization the same way we did in the United States. But they're doing it to themselves. You know, Michelle, you get off a plane in Europe, and one of the first ads you see in the airports, whether it's Frankfurt or Milan, is an ad for the BYD Denzel, which is their EV. and everyone's like, well, if only Detroit or Europe could innovate, they could compete.

27:59You can't compete with$3 an hour labor or whatever they're paying in China, right? There's no way that Detroit or Germany or whatever car industry you're talking about can compete with their labor costs because we're not going that low, nor should we. That's what people aren't getting. How do we compete with that? It's not just labor, Brian. I mean, it's a whole system of subsidies. The cost of the land for manufacturing is cheaper. The cost of loans for manufacturing is cheaper. If you're in a particularly prioritized industry, you get all kinds of benefits, never mind the cheap labor. The price of labor has actually gone up and hurt them in their competitiveness.

28:40It's all of these other factors that go into it that means that it's extremely difficult for a company that exists in a competitive country can ever compete. No, it's a great point. And a fascinating conversation to have with you, Michelle. Hopefully this Jamie Dimon op-ed adds more urgency to it. Michelle, thank you for joining us. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, MCC Global Enterprises and a CNBC contributor. Coming up right here, regional banks. One regional bank is outperforming the broader banking ETF in the last year. Take a guess on the chart and we'll sit down with the CEO next.

29:25AI has already upended software in some ways, but could banking be next? Since Meta's Muse launch this month, some of the biggest banks have come under pressure. Take a look at Citi, down about 5 percent. JPMorgan down 7. Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have fallen about double digits since the launch. And it's not just the big banks. The regional banking sector has lost about 8 percent of its value. But Valley Bank is going on the offense, announcing a new fintech acquisition. Can that help? Before we get to that interview, though, let's go down to Washington. Brian, I think we have President Trump alongside the CEOs of major technology companies.

30:04The technologies are the most brilliant people, the people behind me and the people sitting with me. These are the most brilliant people in the world. And the job they've done is unbelievable. We have a very big lead and we're going to keep our lead. And it's a very positive thing. It's an amazing industry. There are those that say it's bigger than the Industrial Revolution. Now, I don't know if that's so, but everyone seems to think it is, and it could be substantially bigger. And we're leading, and we're going to keep it that way. So I just wanted to thank everybody. You recognize, I would say, almost every one of the people sitting and standing behind me.

30:42I just think it's an honor to be involved with this group of very, very brilliant people, and I thank you very much. Thank you. Mr. President. Do you expect there to be any buying rules on superintelligence after today's lunch? Well, we're doing one thing. We're going to be signing a document today at about 5 o 'clock renaming artificial intelligence, because it's not artificial. We all agree on that. And we're going to be renaming it superintelligence, officially renaming it. And that will come out at 5 o 'clock today. But there was a lot of commonality in this room. It was pretty amazing and and all for the good.

31:24Really amazing. Mr. President, on commonality. The belief of everybody that you're meeting with today that no guardrails, no regulation of AI, superintelligence, as you call it, is necessary. Well, there's a belief that there should be tremendous self-regulation. And we automatically have regulation with the Department of Justice, the FBI, all of that. But the self-regulation is very important. And there's something else that was discussed, and that's local communities. This is a group that loves local communities. They love our country. And they're going to work with local communities for the data centers in particular.

32:00And they're going to work to make the community happy. That might be supplying oil and gas. It might be supplying education. It may be helping teachers along financially, helping people along financially. And they've all agreed that that's a very positive. Nobody really thought of it. And it's a very positive thing. So you're going to see data centers are going to be very popular because this is the group and they're the ones that want to. And they're also the ones that want to see communities that are safe and happy. And they're going to make communities very, very happy. Otherwise, they'll be forced to go overseas or other locations.

32:41But even in America, there are so many people that want data centers. You know, the areas with data centers have become very rich. People have become very rich. Their taxes have gone down, not up. And a lot of good things have happened. But these people and others, having to do with the data centers that you've been reading so much about, I think they're going to do things for the community that will be really financially beneficial and otherwise beneficial. Mr. President, you talked about... Did you have Anthropics plans to go public while it raises safety concerns? And did the IPO come up during your dinner?

33:13Well, we're going to be putting out a statement in a little while, summing up some of the things that we did. But there's a great, it is an unbelievable feeling in this room. It's sort of a feeling of love for our country. And they want to do the right things. These are people that love our country, I can tell you that. Thank you very much, everybody. You talked about the common ground, Mr. President. You've also called, Mr. President, you've also called AI a hoax. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. Thank you. Thank you, guys. Guys, thank you. Thank you. Got the old hand on the camera.

33:46You don't see that? Boom, here's the hand, and we're going to move that over there. President Trump making a couple of fairly quick comments at a meeting of, I mean, literally the who's who of tech leaders, saying some people want, you know, data centers, some people, we want to have safety guard roads, but we want to go faster, faster, faster. In that room, Seema Modi, I can't read the whole list. We've got the guest list here. You've got Elon Musk, Sundar Pichai, Jensen Wong, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, David Sachs, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, and about 20 or 30 other people. And, of course, the hand on the camera.

34:20Two points that President Trump made. One was on, you know, do you think the AI industry should self-police or do we need to rely on Washington for guardrails? He basically said self-regulation is important. Let's bring in Eamon Javers in Washington, who has more on those remarks from President Trump. Eamon. Yeah, Seema, that's right. I mean, I think what you saw from the president there, first of all, what a striking tableau of tech CEOs behind the president and the way they had them lined up sort of in formation, almost like a school photo was really just a sight to see that the power of the American tech industry lined up behind the president there.

34:54And the second point I would make is just what you were just saying, Seema, which is that this is a president who clearly does not want to pump the brakes on AI. He's asked about security. He's asked about the concerns. And what he says is everybody's going to be happy. Data centers are great. This is American economic might. And so the the warnings about A.I. danger and A.I. safety that he might have heard in that room in the period before he brought the cameras in, certainly did to my ear were not as reflected in the comments that we just heard from the president. This is a president who wants to go full steam ahead on A.I.

35:27And then you've got a guy like Adario Amori, who is sitting in the room next to him on this striking day where we saw this S1 suggesting that, you know, this is a company that could eliminate all human beings. Right. I mean, these are these are dramatic stakes. And the president has very clearly staked out a position. And he's with Jensen Wang on this, which is we got to go full steam ahead or else the Chinese are going to beat us. He also talked about data centers, which we know has received immense political pushback, Aiman. He said that there are going to be things that people in this room do that will be financially beneficial.

36:03I'm just curious what you think he's getting these tech CEOs to promise and what they can do, really, to make data centers more palatable to the American people. Well, what the president has always said on data centers is he sees this as American economic might. He also sees it as jobs for American communities. He likes the construction jobs. He's a builder, of course. He'll tell you that every time he talks about construction. He likes those American construction jobs, but he also likes the role that AI is going to play in the economy going forward. And what he wants to see is a robust construction effort around data centers.

36:37And he doesn't like this political pushback that a lot of data centers are getting around the country. He wants sort of unfettered construction and a real, some real energy behind the American economic engine on AI. He doesn't want to see these road bumps sort of unraveling the path toward growth here. So I think that's why you see continued comments from the president about how great AI data centers are, how good they are for communities, how happy everyone's going to be once they get built. Well, he said that people were getting rich. I don't know if the blue-collar workers are, quote, getting rich.

37:08I doubt that, Eamon, but I can tell you right now they are. They're happy to have the jobs. And there's a lot of brand-new pickup trucks outside of a lot of places that I see near data centers because people are employed. Damon Jivers in D.C. There's a lot going on there. Damon, watch out for that hand on the camera. All right. We are joined very patiently by Ira Robbins. He is the CEO of Valley Bank. We're going to take a short break, come back, talk to Ira about this economy, about housing and a lot more. Stick around.

37:39We just heard from President Trump on A.I. And while the tech has already upended software, one of the big questions is whether banking could be next. Let's talk to Ira Robbins, CEO of Valley Bank. Ira, you just heard the president there discuss AI governance. He sort of made the point that the onus is on the companies to self-regulate versus on Washington to provide the guardrails. Your reaction? I think regulation is important. I work in an industry that's definitely regulated, and I think that is a competitive advantage for us. That said, I think industry definitely needs to have an element of self-control and ownership within that and needs to take the first pass forward at what regulation should look like before the government comes in.

38:17Has the market got this right, that MetaMuse and the resurgence of these AI agents poses a threat to regional banks in your business? Absolutely incorrect. And I think if you look through, look, money market accounts came in in the 1970s and took the rate-sensitive deposits out of banks. The average check-in account, the median check-in account at Valley is$4 ,400. No one's going to sit there and start moving their money around if there's only$4 ,400 sitting in that account. From a consumer perspective across the entire country, it's only$8 ,000 sitting in a checking account. A lot of these rich people sitting in big houses in New York City, penthouses, with these AI views of how the average blue-collar consumer is going to be moving their money around is not it.

38:57People choose banks based on relationships, based on location, based on consumer and digital mobility and what the ease of that is. Not so much on interest rates. Is anybody borrowing money for anything right now? A tremendous amount of people borrowing money. For what? You know, we have an unbelievable pipeline today at Valley. Our pipeline's$4 billion versus about$2.5 billion just a year ago. Wait a minute. The pipeline almost doubled? Doubled. On borrowing money? Commercial. As borrowing costs have gone up? Residential consumer is pretty much flat. But when you look at the commercial activity, even though there's been inflation, even though there's been rise in interest rates, there's still value out there.

39:36And we're seeing people investing in equipment, investing in working capital. It's definitely happening still in select segments. because my guess is they believe whatever their borrowing costs are, 5%, 6%, 7 % or higher, they can make more of a return than that cost. So does that tell you, I think it tells me, there's optimism around the economy and economic growth, yes or no? Yes, 1 ,000%. Short and simple, 1 ,000%, yes. People's behavior, our balance sheets of our commercial clients are strong, and they're actually showing it and going and borrowing money today. The deposits within these commercial accounts are strong.

40:16There's a lot of liquidity in the market and a lot of stuff is getting done today. That's interesting. I mean, four days of gains with the uptick in yields. You just bought a fintech company. What was the motivating factor? I think the small business segments, 30 million people have small businesses across the entire country, 6 million new ones every single year. It's a fragmented business, low-cost deposits, And we believe that there's an opportunity to really consolidate. Valley has a very strong branch network. We have strong relationship banking. Two other variables as to how small businesses choose where they want to bank.

40:48It's the deposit and mobility of those online accounts. And then it also comes to the platform and the product set. So the top four reasons, Valley provides two, Bluevine provides two. And we believe the combination of Valley and Bluevine will lead us to really have a significant control over the small business across the entire country. All right. But taking a step back, what is your pulse on the consumer? We got that consumer confidence number this morning, pretty jaw-dropping, lowest level since 2014. Are you seeing that level of concern from consumers about how they want to spend? It's a mixed world, right?

41:21I mean, you have those that have a lot of money that are still continuing to spend, and we see it in economic activity. And those that don't, you know, significant credit card debt. Yeah. And how does that manifest then for regional banks? You know, I think from a regional bank perspective like Valley, most of our revenue comes from the commercial client. So I think our revenues, I think, are going to far out do better than what some of the other money center banks are that have a larger dependency upon the consumer. Well, Ira, listen, I like getting you on because you dispel a lot of the myths.

41:49I thought nobody was borrowing anything. You know, residential, he says flat, but it's not down 80 percent. Not at all. Residential is flat. Auto is flat. Right. So there's segments that are still slow, but commercial activity. And those are the people that employ people across the entire country. Let me ask you this. So the people that are borrowing money in the—not commercial, residential, not autos, residential. What are they doing with the money? Are they buying homes? They're buying homes, but obviously the interest rates are making things a little bit different. So the price of the homes have come down.

42:17There's very little, if any, refinance activity. But there is a tremendous amount of America that does have liquidity and has balances. And they're willing to spend it. I mean, even if the Fed decides to raise rates yet again, which seems to be the estimate right now, the expectation right now. We have a legacy behavior in our mindset that says people save money. People spend money on experiences today, right? And no matter what that is, if it means at the expense of their savings account, that's going to happen. And that means if they want to get into a vacation home, they're going to do that.

42:48People have that mindset that they want to not take it with them, but they want to make sure it's here when they're still alive and people are spending money. Okay, we'll leave it there. Ira Robbins, thank you for joining us. Thank you for having us. Really good pulse on banking, rates, and the consumer. Thank you.

43:04All right, let's talk oil and energy. Oil prices are a little bit lower today. Data from the Arabian Gulf showing that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz continue to go up. New data from Kipler showing oil exports through Hormuz are at about 77 % of pre-war baseline levels. So not exactly the same, right, about three-fourths, but getting closer. Now, do also keep in mind that these are relatively expensive barrels of oil. We have highlighted to you how the cost of shipping has soared, and the escorts of our fantastic U.S. Navy, go Navy, are getting ships through, but it is not inexpensive.

43:41Two other important things to consider. Number one, there are basically no barrels of Iranian oil coming out of Hormuz right now. Now the blockade has nearly almost entirely cut them off. And two, this positive data about crude oil does not include refined products like diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas. Those levels still well below pre-war. But, Seema, the good news is that the flow of oil through that super vital region of the world is three-fourths what it was pre-war. It's not one-fourth. All right. In the meantime, I had a chance to speak with Patrick Poyan. He is the chairman and CEO of Total Energies, one of the world's largest energy companies and a lot of people don't know this, the biggest exporter of American liquefied natural gas.

44:31And with the straight of four moves under threat, product inventories low and winter approaching in the northern hemisphere. I asked Poyan, what are you seeing across the global oil and gas markets? You know, all these markets, energy markets, are of course affected by the crisis in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. So on the oil side, of course, because 20 % of the oil and gas of the world is behind the Strait of Hormuz, so these difficulties are affecting the markets. In particular, today we've seen very high petroleum products, diesel and gasoline, because inventories are quite low.

45:09And it's not only straight of all moves, it's also the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, which is adding on difficulties. And on the gas, I would say, of course, in the U.S., you benefit from very stable, low domestic gas price. We have three dollars, but in the rest of the world, with winter coming in front of us, we see energy price going up, up and up. And it's probably not finished because, again, this is the high season in front of us. and without the supply from Qatar Energy from the Middle East, that will be probably difficult times. Of course, Europe will have the benefit from receiving U.S. energy, and Total Energy is, as you say, the largest exporter of U.S.

45:50energy to Europe. But the price will be, of course, might be quite high during wintertime for customers. All right, so that is just a short clip. We did a longer interview with Patrick. We talked about Europe's lumen energy crisis, natural gas prices and more. The straight-up firm used the full interview will be live on our website. You can scan the QR code. The newsletter will be going out in a couple of days. You want to sign up for Power Insider. Seema, I know that Patrick Puyane is not maybe a household name here in the States. I would arguably one of, if not the most important, corporate CEOs in oil and gas because Total Energies is in so many places that American companies aren't or even won't go.

46:27At$100, Brent Crude, did you get the sense that they are going to continue to increase production or are they reluctant to because there's some type of truce with Iran that could be in the cards? No, they're going to. They're in Libya. They will go to places, Venezuela, Argentina, Iran, places where there's going to be change. We don't know how things will shape out, but Total Energies, along with Italy's ENI, are in places where U.S. companies necessarily won't go. And I think$100 or$90 or$95 barrel oil is going to entice a lot of these companies to make long-term capital commitments. Sure. It helps their refining trading margins as well.

47:10Did he give you any color on where he sees this war headed and if a truce could be in the cards? No. I mean, they all want it. But I think even if they've got their private thoughts, they're afraid to state them because tomorrow anything could happen. Today we've got a semblance of quiet. Tomorrow. Because if you know, let me know. Or let all them know. You'll let us know as well. No, you're going to let the world know. Quick market check here. Dow and S &P are lower. Nasdaq is in the green. More Power Lodge coming up right after this break.

47:49All this focus on tech today. We want to mention one consumer-oriented name, and that is Carnival. Check out this stock, up at 13 % after the company raised its guidance. CEO today, Josh Weinstein, talking to CNBC about strength in the consumer, bookings and their forward guidance coming in much higher than expected. Such an interesting dichotomy, Brian, when you look at that consumer confidence number that came out this morning. These are your people. Give us the Seema Modi hot take. Jake, what's going on here? Experiences, post-pandemic, people just really value time with their family and wanting to put more of their income towards entertainment.

48:22And I think the cruise lines have played a big role there. Because I thought, like, high diesel fuel prices, they call it bunker, was going to kill the industry. Well, I think that they're able to offset that with higher prices that they're pushing on to the consumer, and it's working for now. So high diesel prices, at least for Carnival, may not destroy the industry. That's one company, right? But it's a good data point. You know what we like? We like good news, and it's a Seema Modi thing. Hey, thanks for having me. Folks, thank you for watching Power Lunch. Closing bell begins right now.

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