AI Has A Hidden Debt Problem

0:01Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech. The U.S. stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation, from factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha. Anyone can own a piece of the great American companies. But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out. Until now. Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech, now available wherever you buy stocks. Visit GetVCX.com for more info. That's GetVCX.com. Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

0:36This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at GetVCX.com. This is a paid sponsorship.

0:45Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Now, I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited premium wireless for$15 a month is back. So I thought it would be fun if we made$15 bills. But it turns out that's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. Initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Midi knows perimenopause can come on fast.

1:18Suddenly your hormones are raging. You're waking up at 3 a.m., your genes don't fit, and you've forgotten the word for microwave. Most women in perimenopause don't know that they are, even though it can last for 10 years. Midi Health is built by women. That's why our experts actually listen and treat your symptoms. Book a virtual appointment at joinmidi.com. Midlife needs Midi. Results may vary. Medications prescribed only if clinically appropriate based on a consultation with a clinician.

2:00Welcome to Prof G Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is July 23rd. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S &P 500 and the Nasdaq declined. The Dow was flat. Brent crude climbed above $95 per barrel for the first time in nearly six weeks. As both the US and Iran escalated their attacks, the yield on 10-year treasuries increased. And finally, Google and Tesla shares fell after both companies reported earnings. We will get into those reports later. OK, what else is happening? The big AI spenders are increasingly turning to debt, and a lot of it turns out to be hidden. A Nikkei Asia investigation found that five tech giants, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle, are carrying roughly$1.65 trillion in debt that doesn't show up on their balance sheets.

2:55That's more than the$1.35 trillion they actually report, meaning the debt we can't see is now bigger than the debt we can. Meta's off-balance sheet debt is roughly three times its reported debt, and Oracle's has ballooned about 30-fold in four years. It's all legal, but it raises one big question. What happens if AI demand isn't as strong as investors are betting? Joining us to discuss this question, we're speaking with Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed? newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast. Ed, Thank you for joining us. I just want to give you some context. Yesterday, I was talking about Oracle on this show, and I was talking about how they're increasingly relying on debt to finance their data centers and how it's becoming kind of borderline unmanageable.

3:48And that's why their credit rating is getting downgraded and their borrowing costs are exploding. They're kind of being sent into this downward spiral. Up until this point, though, it has been my understanding that the debt in the AI ecosystem has been relatively contained to a handful of companies like Oracle, but that it hadn't infected the bigger names, which is why I was so alarmed to see this reporting from Nikkei, which says there's$1.7 trillion of hidden debt that we haven't been seeing, that we haven't been looking at. You've just written a huge piece on this. You investigated these numbers.

4:24you did a sweeping analysis of all of this. What do we know about debt in AI and how is it that so much of it appears to be hidden? So there are several factors here. With the hyperscalers, the reason they're able to do that is because they found this interesting accounting treatment. The Ernst & Young claim is a red flag in Meta's case, where when you build a data center, it's not like you as the company say, I'm going to buy all the stuff. I'm going to get the debt for this and here we go they make a special purpose vehicle or a variable interest entity which is basically an spv where you don't own as much so for example with hyperion i think investors like pimco and blue owl own 80 of it and meta only owns 20 of it despite meta being the only client the person that's going to fill it full of gpus as well i think i think they're moving some across their assets despite them being the obvious despite meta announcing it and saying, this is our data center, because they don't have full ownership of it.

5:22It's not counted as something they put on their balance sheet. They will have it, I think, within operating leases when it starts paying. But the thing is, this is the entire AI data center industry. Every one of them are these SPVs that people pull money into. The SPV owns the debt. The SPV often owns a lot of the risk, though, through non-recourse loans, which means that technically you have to go after the assets of the SPV before you go after the company. But nevertheless, these things own the risk. They own the GPUs. They pay investors not out of anything other than the revenues from the data centers, which leads to the important point of what happens if the revenue for the data center isn't there?

6:01How do investors get made whole? And the answer is they do not. And the only reason this is not considered a problem yet is it hasn't actually happened. The data centers have not been built at the scale that would have to happen for the revenue not to flow in. What actually is an SPV? And this is important because you say that these data center SPVs are the AI bubbles equivalent of CDOs, which of course were the financial instruments that basically sparked the great financial crisis. You say that that is our equivalent today. So what actually is an SPV and why are they so popular? So to be clear, a CDO is slightly different.

6:41It's holding mortgage bonds and stuff, but they are the same kind of financial instrument that will cause genuine harm to the markets in the world. So an SPV is basically a company. It's a company. It has people, people that technically are on the board of directors. You can do that, but really it's just a holding entity for money and stuff. And so when they build the data center that spv raises raises the debt that spv holds the debt that spv buys the gpus it builds the data center and when the money flows into it the spv is the one that pays out to contractors that pays the opex costs and there's a cash waterfall even where it goes paying opex paying investors and then paying paying the people that own it in theory if there's more money than there should be that is not going to happen but nevertheless these things are so dangerous because they are being sold as stable infrastructure like commercial real estate or residentials and just saying, oh, it's physical land.

7:36It's good. It's great. But the problem is, and the critical difference is that data centers are nothing like a regular mortgage and they're nothing like commercial real estate. These are complex financial operations, both in the construction and the ongoing costs. And then there's the important thing of you need revenue to actually get paid out of them. And because they're all project financing, which just means they exist to finance a project. There is no other money for them to pay people out unless like the company on the other end, Accor, even Oracle, what have you, isn't on the hook for those payments.

8:08Basically the client is. And if the client is say, I don't know, open AI and can't afford to pay it, then investors who have invested in these SPVs, well, they're kind of shit out of luck. And the problem is when I say investors, I mean anyone who's involved in private credit right now. And private credit is well funded, as I'm sure we'll get into, by pensions, retirement funds, insurance funds, teachers' pensions, cops' pensions, all this different stuff. We are all involved in private credit, whether we want to or not. I just want to read you a quote from Amanda Yacone of Bloomberg, and you quoted this in your piece.

8:43She made this comparison to Enron. She said, quote, Enron exploited U.S. accounting rules to hide from investors and lenders hundreds of millions in debt. It had bundled into off-balance sheet entities, obligations that contributed to one of the biggest corporate collapses in US history. And what you are describing right now is that there is a trend among the big tech companies, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle. They are creating these shell entities, these SPVs, seemingly to hide literally hundreds of billions of dollars of debt that they are issuing in order to finance their data centers.

9:26In other words, they're showing us in their reporting and in their earnings, like, here's everything we've built, but then they're hiding all of the borrowing that they took on to build all those things that they're kind of bragging about in their reporting. That does seem to be a very, very similar link. Like, I guess, could you expand on that, on how this has come to be and potentially how this might unravel? So I want to be clear that other than Oracle, I don't think these companies die. But I will say it's kind of hard that Nikkei piece, it wasn't clear if they were saying there was$300 billion or$1.6 trillion of hidden debt.

10:08It was a very weirdly written piece. But let's say it's a trillion or so of off-balance sheet debt. That means that there's a trillion dollars in loans that we actually cannot really quantify outside of media reporting. But I must be clear, it's not just hyperscalers doing it. It's CoreWeave, it's IREN, it's Nebius, it's NVIDIA in some cases. It's whoever is building a data center is using these shell corporations as a mean of obfuscating ownership and also obfuscating risk, as in basically handing off the risk to investors. And even though there are some that are recourse loans, even if there's up the chain, you could eventually sue the company.

10:45At that point, you would have sold off all the GPUs, so you'd be screwed either way. But the larger point is, yeah, this is a corporate scandal. This is a huge scandal. This should be front page news everywhere. This should be a shareholder riot. But because we live, as you put it, well, in my show, in this cult of worshipping the wealthy, we just kind of put it to the side. This is a significant risk to these companies, though. This is a real, like Google, we're talking just as Google's earnings came out. They narrowly missed on search revenue. Their other businesses are slowing down. It's happening across the board.

11:18So their businesses are going to slow down just as these massive debts creep up. And let's say they have ways of getting out of these things. The investors will still be screwed. The investors involved will still be screwed. And if they cancel these projects, I imagine they'll pay off investors to a point. But anyone involved is going to take a loss. And then this spreads out. This is the good news. The fact that the hyperscalers have these, these are the good SPVs. These are the ones that I think might survive. The problem is every single data center is through an SPV. And every single investor who's invested in a data center has invested not in the data center itself, but in the potential revenue it brings in.

11:59And the problem there is that is dependent on there being 15 or more times the AI compute demand than currently exists. It's genuinely terrifying when you start quantifying it. And people are way too flippant about this stuff. They say, oh, it's not as bad. Oh, it's not as bad as the great financial crisis. It's still a great financial crisis that this happens. It's still horrifying. And it's everywhere. You write, quote, much like a subprime mortgage, AI data center debt is being poorly underwritten, virtually uncollateralized and issued to projects that have extremely low likelihoods of repayment all based on flimsy information and hype-driven mania, end quote.

12:41Sounds like a provocative statement, but I actually think it's pretty much factual and correct. I think one thing that isn't in that statement, when we make the comparison to the great financial crisis, is the fact that a lot of that poorly underwritten debt, that virtually uncollateralized debt was obfuscated and hidden away to the point where ratings agencies and investors and traders didn't even know what was happening because it had been so well hidden in the markets. It had been so well kind of complexified. I guess my question to you, do you think that this is the same situation where investors, ratings agencies, I mean, And we know that S &P just downrated Oracle's debt.

13:31So clearly, they have some semblance of an understanding of what might be going wrong here. But is it your view that this is not being priced in, that investors literally don't know what is happening in terms of the debt that is being issued among many of these companies? Let me tell you the tale of private credit. So private credit in the last few years has gone on a tear, merging with or requiring insurance companies and retirement funds. Apollo bought Athene while they merged with them. Blue Owl bought Couvert. I forget who the others are, but nevertheless, Blackstone's infrastructure fund is funded by retirement funds.

14:07The problem is, is a lot of the SPVs are funded by private credit. That private part is the lethal part. S &P doesn't rate private debt. No one does other than the private credit fund. So there was a story in the information a few months ago that said that Blue Owl decided to invest, I think, up to$10 billion in Stargate Abilene after 10 minutes. How much due diligence do you think we can get done in 10 minutes? Probably not very much. This is standard for the SPVs. So while people will say, oh, well, the ratings agencies failed here. Actually, no, the SEC failed here. The insanity of private credit, which is basically a multi-trillion shadow banking system is what's propping this up.

14:51For the most part, the debt raised for these SPVs is coming from private credit. You look at CoreWeave, it's coming from private credit. When it comes from the banks, the banks themselves, SMBC and MUFJ out of Japan, they're just funneling the debt straight in. So much of this is coming through institutional investors that are funneling money through private credit that the ratings agencies aren't even involved. And the ratings agencies don't. The only reason they did it with Oracle is Oracle has predominantly raised its money via bonds, except for the fact that a lot of their private projects are SPVs and the SPV raises the debt.

15:27And it's this situation where in theory, like I think the Michigan data center they're building is a recourse loan. So you can go directly after Oracle, but that's the thing. Even in that situation, there are these legal barriers that if every data center is exploding will make it hard to litigate at scale, or at least hard to pull down who's actually responsible. And we don't, like, if you are anything touching an Athene or a Cuvert or any other insurance company, it is worth checking where the money's going. I think Allianz actually invested in the Cyrus One bond. And the thing is, these bonds get rated somehow, they get rated as junk, but because insurance companies are now effectively run by private credit funds, I don't give a crap.

16:10It's like, eh, sure. Because of this giant lie. And this giant lie is that data centers are the equivalent of investing in power plants and factories, that they're AI factories, when in fact, what you're investing in is a very large, like town-sized building or campus that is full of depreciating GPUs for an industry that has not proven it has the demand. And I mean, my estimate for actual AI compute demand is about 100, 120 billion a year. I did the math, and it's something like, if they build all 130 gigawatts of IT loads, so the actual operational GPUs, that they say is in planning based on sightline climate, we will need$1.68 trillion of annual compute revenue just to pay for them all.

16:56And they'll have to pay consistently because if you stop paying consistently, the loan covenants with the SPVs break. And the crazy part about this is the global software industry is less than$800 billion. So we're just going to magic up another software industry. And to be clear, what I am saying sounds radical? I think you kind of set this already. It sounds like a scary thing. Oh, it's alarmist. This is just very basic maths. This is sightline climate said 190 gigawatts of capacity was in planning or under construction. PUE of 1.35, which is just the energy efficiency, 130 gigawatts,$12 million a megawatt.

17:34This is simple maths that anyone could do. And the thing is, even if it's just half of that, we still don't have enough demand. And so we're in this weird situation where this risk is now spread everywhere to the point that because it's private, we actually do not know how far. And it's within the insurance companies. It's different to how AIG collapsed. It's just smaller. It's smaller little bits. But the other problem is, is that AI data centers are so expensive. They cost 500 million minimum, probably several billion. So instead of having millions of or hundreds of thousands of subprime mortgages that collapse in a kind of slow boil over time, it's going to be a 500 million, a 6 billion, a 2 billion, a 1 billion collapses.

18:17And each time one of these happens, that's a massive markdown with a private credit fund, but also a bunch of investors who have lost money and have no recourse beyond, I don't know, selling all the GPUs in a market that will become saturated with them. It's the recourse point that is getting us into such dangerous territory here. I mean, it's one thing to sell equity on a speculative bet about the future, in which case, you know, people know what they're buying into. We know what the risks are. It's another thing to finance an extremely speculative business through debt and then to hide that debt.

18:56Because, I mean, if this doesn't work out, we're not just talking about equity going down here. Yeah, we're talking about bankruptcies. We're talking about defaults. There's also one other problem, which is the reason that insurance and retirement funds invest in private credit is because they need yield. They need ongoing yields. So if these data centers do not pay out, we have retirement funds and insurance premiums that cannot get paid. And I'm sure they have some buffer. I'm sure they have other assets. But I mean, it doesn't have to be an AIG commercial paypal level collapse for this to be systemically damaging.

19:38And after this, there is no more yield to be found, I guess, other than treasury bonds, which are going up now. Yay. But when they go down, I don't know. But so it really is. And what sucks is most people have no idea about this. Most people don't realize that like the California pension fund is invested in blue out. Like these are, it's everywhere. And it's not just in America. It's across the board. You've got, I think, the Dutch pension funds in data centers, CDPQ, which is the Quebec pension fund. They invested, I think, in a CoreWeave data center. Like this is everywhere. And I'm furious at the fact that it's so ill, it's so rarely discussed, but also people are so quick to being like, oh, it's not as bad.

20:21Oh, it's not as bad. Not as bad is still bad. All right. Well, we're going to have to continue this conversation another time. I'm going to have to let you go. But it is fascinating stuff. And I do encourage our listeners to go read your article. It's extremely rigorous and gets at a lot of the issues that we're talking about. Ed Zittrain is the author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast. Ed, always appreciate your time. Thank you. Thanks for having me.

20:57After the break, a breakdown of Tesla and Google's earnings. And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

21:26you. Thousands of recipes from celebrated food publications around the world, local news from all 50 states, sports coverage from across the globe, audio stories you can take anywhere, and daily puzzles exclusive to Apple News Plus. All of it curated just for you. New subscribers try it free for one month at news.apple.com. Terms apply.

22:16We'll be right back. We did visit amazon.com slash prime to find millions of items delivered fast. Same day delivery. It's on prime available in select areas. Terms apply. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required.

22:53Compatibility and availability varies 18+.

23:01We're back with ProfG Markets. Tesla just reported earnings and Wall Street was disappointed. Ahead of earnings, Tesla had reported impressive delivery numbers for the quarter, up 25 % year over year. That gave investors the impression that Tesla's worst quarters were behind it. This time last year, the company was reporting a 13 % decrease in deliveries. But the company's second quarter earnings told a different story. While revenue beat analyst expectations up about 26 % year over year, profits fell 5 % over the same period. And the quarter's free cash flow came in about$1.1 billion in the red.

23:41The stock fell more than 3 % after hours and is now down roughly 25 % from its peak. So here to break down Tesla's quarter, we are speaking with Kareem Booster, co-founder and managing partner at DVX Ventures and former vice president at both Tesla and Lyft. Kareem, thank you for joining us. The interesting story here, you got decent delivery numbers, especially compared to last year. Revenue was up, but profits down. What went wrong here on the bottom line? I think what we're seeing with this published result should not come as a surprise for anyone who's been understanding and following what's been going on with Tesla for the past, I'd say, 18 to 24 months.

24:31Essentially, what's been happening, we've seen declining sales for several quarters in a row. But more importantly, we've seen declining market shares. And even in this quarter where for the first time in a few quarters, Tesla has been able to report increasing sales number, you have to look at this in the context of a growing EV market where the market overall has been growing faster than the sales number that Tesla has been reporting. So that's one factor which confirms what we've been seeing for the past few years, which is Tesla has a fundamental issue on the automotive side, which is essentially the vehicle lineup, the product lineup is becoming old.

25:14It has not been able to renew it. There's been a refresh of the Model Y last year, but it's still based on the same platform that launched almost 10 years ago now with the Model 3 and then the Model Y. So there hasn't been real innovation, both from a product side and technology side, that would have allowed for the company to catch up on the market share losses that they've been seeing and at the same time continue improving the margins. It's actually been the opposite. The margins have been eroding. We're seeing it in the results that have been reported this quarter. So all this comes down to the lack of innovation and new product and fundamental platform launches that we haven't seen for the past few years.

26:00And that's in the context of a competition that has been increasing with all competitors catching up to where Tesla was even six or seven years ago and creating great products with better margins, better production systems than what Tesla has been able to accomplish. So all this to say, I'm not surprised by these results. It's all coming down to what we've been seeing in the past few quarters and everything is coming into place when you look at the lack of innovation and new breakthrough product on the product lineup side. The Tesla bulls will say, what about the robotaxi? They will say, what about Optimus, which is the humanoid robot?