Is Google a Buy? + Is Uber Recession Proof?

25:30He was pardoned. And I'd like to see some people confront him on it. I mean, the lack of confrontation on Trump, on this issue specifically, which, as I've said, is completely inexcusable. You can't steal man it. No one's asking him questions. Like, I've seen maybe one reporter when Trump coin was announced who asked him a little bit about it. Like, what is it? And he basically said, oh, I don't really know. Like, he just didn't really have a response. Like, oh, I launched it. I think it went well, right? I think it went well. Yeah, I don't really know what's going on with that. Like, why aren't people fucking confronting this guy?

26:03Yeah, my favorite was, do you have a responsibility to uphold the Constitution? I don't know. I need to check with my lawyers. Yeah, right. I'm not sure. It's unbelievable. I'm so done with the crypto industry. And I'm also so done with the argument where they say, well, this isn't the real crypto industry. Actually, it is the real crypto industry. If you look at the crypto industry, this is where all the action is taking place. It's happening in the meme coins. It's happening in the Trump coin. It's the dinners at the White House. It's the VIP tours of the Capitol. Like, this is the crypto industry.

26:34So enough with this argument where you say, oh, this isn't really us. It is you. And you're the same guys who donated to this guy to make sure that these guys wouldn't be regulated. It's 100 % the crypto industry. Maybe we'll make some concessions for Bitcoin. but we need to stop using that as an excuse to let people do illegal things. It's just, it's so bad and it's so shameless. And I'm just so shocked that people aren't more upset about it. You're shocked. You're shocked. I love that. I love your moral clarity on this. I like that you're this young person who hates crypto. Yeah, because it's terrible and it's so obvious.

27:07There you go. We'll be right back after the break with a look at Apple's Safari Shift. If you're enjoying the show so far, be sure to give Prof G Markets a follow wherever you get your podcasts.

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29:31We're back with Profitry Markets. Google stock fell 9 % after Apple SVP Eddie Q testified that Apple may begin integrating AI search engines like perplexity into Safari. Speaking during the DOJ's antitrust case against Google, Eddie Q revealed that Safari saw a decline in search volume for the first time last month, a shift that he attributed to users turning to AI-powered search tools. While he said Google should remain the default for Safari, Q believes AI search tools will eventually replace traditional search engines. So this is a huge deal in terms of what it did to Google stock. Google stock fell 9%, wiped out around a quarter of a trillion dollars in market value.

30:15And let me just, I just want to clarify, like, what are the implications of what this random dude at Apple said in this testimony, in this antitrust case? So the first is that, according to him, Google searches are declining for the first time on Apple devices as measured by search entries on Safari, which of course is the default app browser on Apple devices. So that's the first thing. The second thing, he said he thought that AI tools like OpenAI and Perplexity and Anthropic, that they are eventually going to replace Google, and that Apple is now focusing on AI-based search. And the third thing is that he seems to be signaling that this$20 billion per year contract between Google and Apple, remember, Google pays Apple$20 billion a year to be the default option when you search things on your Apple device, when you're searching for things on Safari.

31:11He seems to be signaling that after, when it's all said and done in this antitrust trial, that that contract will be outlawed. That the Google$20 billion per year contract with Apple will no longer exist. So many implications that are happening here as a result of these comments. And Wall Street really did not like it. I mean, 9 % drop in Google stock. That is a huge drop when you're looking at a$2 trillion plus company. So Scott, any reactions to what's happened here to Google? Any reactions to Eddie Q's comments in this testimony? What do you think of this news? It's great to be a monopoly. And when something threatens your monopoly power, it takes the stock down.

31:55And also, I think people felt that this might expedite the transfer of market share from Alphabet to ChatGPT. There's been talk even about potentially open AI bidding for Chrome if they're forced to spin it. And so it feels like momentum has its own momentum and things are not great for Alphabet. And one, that's an incredible high margin payment,$20 billion a year. And Google, it does feel like open AI is an existential threat. I would argue that Google or Alphabet is the cheapest. If I were going to put money into one of those companies right now, I'd be tempted to go for growth and meta, but I can't morally reconcile investing in meta.

32:42What I just don't get is if the S &P trades at 24, I think it's just hard to understand how Alphabet is not in the top median of companies in terms of growth, and it's trading at 17. So to me, Alphabet feels like the least expensive of them. You had, I think, a great stat, and that is, as of today, Google is registering 353 times as many searches as OpenAI. Let me put it this way. The carcass is bleeding, but this is going to be a big carcass for a long, long time. I hard agree with you on this. I mean, first, it might be worth asking, like, why exactly is Wall Street selling? And there are so many different reasons.

33:24I mean, is it because they believe Google will be broken up? Is it because they believe Google needs this partnership with Apple to dominate in search? Is it because they believe or because they learned that the search volume on Safari is going down? Is it because Apple is moving into AI and maybe that's evidence that AI-based search is going to kill traditional search? I mean, all of these questions, and my guess is it's sort of this combination of all of these things. And I like what you said, like momentum has momentum. It's almost like all of the uncertainty around those questions kind of turbocharged this pessimism surrounding Google.

34:04And that's why you saw this massive devaluation of the stock. But I do want to like step back and look at the valuation and more specifically look at it vis-a-vis the sum of its parts. And I just want to clarify, this is sort of a very quick, rough and dirty valuation, but I think it's helpful in understanding what's going on here. So Google Cloud is a$43 billion business. If we were to apply a comparable multiple, say of Oracle, which trades at eight times sales, then you're looking at$350 billion in market cap. You look at YouTube,$54 billion business. Give it a Netflix multiple of 12X, that's a$650 billion market cap.

34:44Then there's all of the other stuff that Google makes money off of, like Google One and Google Health and Waymo and the Google phone. But for the sake of this argument, let's just not even include them. So let's just be very conservative. Let's look at cloud. Let's look at YouTube. Those businesses, you're looking at a market cap of a trillion dollars, which means that under those assumptions, the search business, which generates$200 billion in revenue per year, that business is trading at the current price at around probably less four-time sales. Because I remember I didn't even include all those other businesses and the other bets that Google's getting into.

35:22And granted, this is a quick and dirty analysis. But my sense is that when you look at the company, when you do a sum of parts analysis, I think the search business here is massively undervalued. What I think is happening, I think the market's gotten a little too carried away with this whole AI is replacing Google thesis. I mean, you look at how the market reacted to this news. They're basically saying that Google search is doomed. And what they seem to be ignoring is, one, the fact that Google search is actually still growing when you look at revenue. And two, Google is also investing heavily in AI.

35:58Like, they're not out of the AI race. And so the idea that you hear these comments from some Apple executive and then you suddenly decide Google search is over, to me, that is exuberant, bordering on irrational. And it seems also to ignore all of Google's other growth investments. So I think Google is way undervalued right now. If you're thinking about buying Google, I would argue the time to buy is right now. It's gotten crushed year to date, down almost 20%. It's trading at its cheapest levels in a decade, 17 times earnings. Compared to the S &P, which is trading at like 25, 26. You know, Google, it's a juggernaut tech company.

36:38and yet it's being valued today like it was like a dying industrials company. Yeah, I love that. Some of the parts analysis, I used to do that when I was an activist investor and go in and get board seats and tell them to break up and they'd say, fuck off. And then I'd leave. Not Gateway though. Yeah, they sold. They sold. What a baller. Gateway. Anyways, I would say if you really did a hard analysis, Google or the Google search business is being valued at two to three times revenues. Pinterest is three times revenues. So, you know, Google is just a better business than Pinterest. The thing we're not talking about that I'm increasingly thinking is about to happen that I think we're on the verge of the autonomous wars and autonomous is going to create a massive amount of excitement.

37:29It was supposed to happen, supposed to happen, supposed to happen, didn't, didn't, people have just sort of like constantly sick of rolling their eyes. It feels like it's happening. and it's going to reshape transportation and the unit economics of last mile. And there'll be a ton of excitement. And hands down, the leader is Waymo. Just one other implication that I want to get your take on. You know, I think one of the reasons Wall Street's freaking out is just the possibility of a breakup. You've made this point before, but I just think it's worth highlighting again that like breakups can actually be really good for shareholders.

38:05Like, I feel like there's this feeling in the investment community that if you break up a company, it's like you're almost seizing people's shares in the company. Like, you're just making them poor overnight. And they're sort of not acknowledging that actually, no, all it means is you're separating out these business segments into different companies. You're still going to keep your shares. It's just the shares are going to be spread across multiple companies. and you've made this point and Matt Stoller has made this point in his newsletter that you know this can actually be value accretive for shareholders you look at Standard Oil which got broken up it ended up creating Exxon and Mobil and uh and Conoco and Chevron all these other companies and Rockefeller he ended up quintupling his wealth like the shareholders of Standard Oil did incredibly well after that breakup and it feels to me that maybe the market's sort of forgotten that, and they're not really considering that.

39:02They're considering this breakup concept to be this existential threat that would just kill Google overnight. I'm not considering that there's actually like, there's upside risk here too. It could be value accretive for the company. You're singing for my hymn book, brother. I think that if you look at the history of breakups, you know, PayPal used to be the payment system within eBay. It's now worth more, it's now worth twice as much as eBay. Every one of the seven baby bells in the AT &T breakup was worth more than the original AT &T within 10 years. So breakups almost always work for shareholders.

39:35And if, where you find alpha and dislocation here is if the wolves really circle for meta or for alphabet and the stock goes down, I think that's an enormous buying opportunity because it's not like the asset just taken away from those shareholders. The shareholders own a proportionate amount in that new co. And so all of a sudden, and then you get diversification. I used to own a share of Alphabet. Now I own one share of Alphabet and three shares of Google and three shares of YouTube and two shares in Waymo, however they decided they wanted to break it up. And the reality is a spin of assets that creates more pure plays is accretive to shareholders.

40:19list. Because here's the thing. I don't need Alphabet to diversify for me. I would like the opportunity to just buy a pure play YouTube. I would like that. I'm not sure I want Waymo. Maybe I do. Maybe I don't. Maybe I don't want to invest in Google. Or maybe I do want to invest in a cheap Google because people think it's declining. Whatever it is, we don't need conglomerates to diversify for us. We can diversify on our own. So I think that is a huge opportunity. And just thinking about this. I keep saying I'm going to sell everything and invest in European stocks. I might do a little dribble into alphabet, into the alpha to the bet and see what happens here.

40:56There we go. You've talked me into it. There we go. Coming back to America. We'll be right back after the break with a look at Uber's earnings. If you're enjoying the show so far, hit follow and leave us a review on Prof G Markets.

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43:11We're back with ProfG Markets. Uber's first quarter earnings largely beat expectations, but the stock dropped more than 2 % as revenue and gross bookings fell short of forecasts. Still, CEO Dara Khosrowsahi noted there are no signs of weakening consumer sentiment. He also highlighted efforts to lower prices and said autonomous vehicles are, quote, the single greatest opportunity ahead for Uber. I'll give some of my initial reactions to these earnings here. You know, they missed on revenue, but barely. It was$11.5 billion versus what Wall Street wanted, which was$11.6. But it was still up 14 % from a year earlier.

43:54I think that's fantastic growth. I think the real highlight to me, which was honestly a little surprised to see the stock drop, was the bottom line, where they had 83 cents per share in EPS versus 50 cents expected. And that was a big beat. And, you know, I think this is the most important piece of the Uber business right now. I mean, for years, it was all about growth, growth, growth, revenue, revenue, revenue. But the question now is, can this company, or at least the question in the past two or three years, can this company figure out a way to get profitable? That was the big concern. Now, they had their first ever profitable year in 2023.

44:34They followed it up again in 2024. But what we're seeing is that in 2025, it's only getting better. You look at every line item on the income statement, costs are going down across the board. And you look at the operating profitability, adjusted EBITDA is up 35 % year over year. It's really, really strong on the profitability front. So I think what I'm learning about Uber is, yes, still a growth company. Yes, still a tech company. It's still got significant expectations to live up to. But now that it has the scale, it feels like the model actually makes sense. And it's not this speculative bet anymore.

45:12It feels like they've kind of stripped out the risk here. And again, I'm going to be bullish on this one too. 19 times earnings. I think that's quite low. I was bullish at the beginning of the year. It's up 30 % year to date. I'm still bullish. I think there's a lot of room to grow here. And I was very impressed by those profitability numbers. This feels like a very solid, safe company that is also betting big on some growth vehicles. I mean, there's so many amazing CEOs running amazing companies, but I think Dara is one of them. And he took an incredible concept that Travis started and he kind of evolved the firm to sort of adult management, made some great acquisitions.

45:54And Uber's just sort of running away with it. They have scale. It's well managed. He got into food delivery. He's embraced. Rather than saying, oh, autonomous is not coming, he's embracing it. And I think he's done deals with the biggest players. And they have almost near monopoly status. I'm trying to think in terms of actual impact on my life and consumer usage, there's very few brands that I didn't use 20 years ago that are more integrated and important in my life. I could stay at home and take edibles and just order Ubers and just watch where the car is. I'm like, oh, it's a QX60. Why is he going left on broom?

46:35I find it enjoyable to see where my car is. You might be alone there. I'm not sure I do. When I think about it, I grew up in a time where you actually got a driver's license. I went to the DMV with my friend Adam Markman on my 16th birthday. He came with me because it was so important. And I love cars. I've spent a ridiculous amount of money on cars. I don't have a car because of Uber. And I would bet I spend$5 ,000 a month on it,$3 ,000 a month on Ubers. I will take Ubers everywhere. If I'm, I mean, I just love, I love that service. I think they do an amazing job. And I didn't like the company initially because I thought they were using cheap capital and software to circumvent employment labor laws and getting figured out a way to get people to monetize their car as a payday loan because they were so desperate.

47:27Which was true. But they're charging more, which I think is the right thing to do. I think it's a great service. They're paying their drivers more. I think Uber Eats is fantastic. I think Dara's done a great job. So they barely missed expectations. I would call this a meet. I think they met expectations. I think it's really hard to say they missed. It's interesting you say, I mean, I don't think you're the average consumer. I don't think most people are spending$3 ,000 to$5 ,000 a month on their Uber. But where you might be indicative of the average consumer is, or at least this is what the market is telling us, you know, this is a pretty tariff insulated business.

48:03I mean, certainly in terms of first order effects. I mean, they're not getting tariffed on anything. But I think the question that the market, that investors should be asking is like, what are the second order effects from tariffs? What actually happens to the consumer? if prices are going up and affordability is difficult for the consumer, will Uber be impacted by those price increases in everyday items? If you're strapped for cash, are you still going to be taking Ubers? I think that's a question that I'm not sure I could answer, but the market seems to believe, at least so far, up 30 % year to date, the market seems to believe, yeah, people will still use Ubers.

48:45It's such a systemic part of, for those who take Ubers, it's such a systemic part of their lives that in the same way that the market believes people aren't going to cut back on their Netflix subscriptions, the market seems to believe people aren't going to cut back on riding around in an Uber. I think that's probably not going to be true of food delivery. I think if there's one place you start cutting, it's you decide, okay, I'll probably walk to Chipotle versus having a taxi deliver my burrito to my doorstep. But it is interesting, that question, like it does seem that this is becoming so endemic to the human experience, the American human experience.

49:23At least if you live in a city, I don't want to speak for rural Americans, but if you live in New York, as an example, like, yeah, you're Ubering around a lot. I'll do four Ubers today. And to your point about it being stitched into societal norms and to the zeitgeist of our culture, because I write a lot about young men and mating, I get served all of these TikToks with people talking about dating. And have you seen this? One of the new litmus tests for whether a guy is worth dating is or a new minimum table stakes for a date is did he send an Uber? To bring her to the location? Yeah, to bring the date to the dinner.

50:05Yeah. Oh, fuck off. No way. Uh-oh. Glad you're in a relationship. Yeah, that that's sort of an expectation now. And I thought, I can't imagine when I was a kid, like, sending a limo for my date. I'm like, this generation has become pretty entitled. Well, he's going to send you like a Honda Accord is what he's going to send you now. Because maybe you go for the Uber Lux. Look, this company would, I think this company is vulnerable to a recession, but I bet it would be more, all right, I'm not going to take Uber Lux, I'm going to take Uber X or whatever. I think consumers have just gotten way too used to the convenience of having a private driver show up and drive you somewhere.

50:44I think jury's still out on that question. Like, I think the market might be being a little too optimistic. Like, I'm cautious of how they're pricing this in terms of Netflix as well. Like, I'm just not sure, I guess, because we haven't seen how bad the tariff impact would be. But it is certainly an interesting question. And it's interesting to see the market take a position, it sounds like, in agreement with you. Let's talk about a little bit about autonomous, because that was a big focus. And Dara stated that it's a huge priority. I mean, just some context, as we've discussed, Uber has entered this partnership with Waymo.

51:20They've now got 100 autonomous Waymo vehicles operating in Austin that you can just order on the Uber app. On the earnings call, he said that those vehicles are now more productive than 99 % of drivers in the city. They said the program has exceeded expectations. I think the autonomous program is very exciting. I think it's a big deal. I think that's where you're going to get this growth from Uber. The only question mark I have here on Uber and its role in autonomous, as we know, Uber was developing their own vehicles. They wanted to make their own robot cars, essentially. And then they decided to scrap that.

51:59And instead, what they're doing is they are entering these contracts with Waymo. Waymo has the cars. Uber has the network. Waymo pays Uber to use the network. And it's great for Uber because it means they don't have to invest any upfront capital. They can just sort of leverage their existing technology. It's also great for Waymo because Waymo needs to focus on the hard stuff. They need to manufacture the cars and create the software. They need to make sure that these cars are actually safe and people aren't crashing. So it works right now and Uber has that leverage. My question though, just from a long-term perspective, what happens down the line?

52:33What happens if Waymo perfects the technology and then suddenly they decide, actually, we're going to build our own network. We don't want to pay these fees to Uber. I don't think we're anywhere close to that. But, you know, if that does happen and Uber loses that leverage, suddenly you're out of the AV race, which, as you said, the race is on now. So that's sort of the long-term question I'm thinking about. I think it poses a real incentive for Uber to maybe get back into building these vehicles in-house. because if autonomous is the future of mobility, and I think it is, if you're Uber, you don't want to lose out on that market, right?

53:10Yeah, I just think the cost, when you say build the vehicles, you mean build the autonomous driving technology? Yeah. Yeah, I just think it's such an arms race and there's so much capital involved that I think you're underestimating the power of the custody of the consumer and how lazy consumers are when they get comfortable with an interface. I have uploaded all my credit cards to Uber. I understand it. And it's just super easy for me to hit it and go. And so, I mean, essentially, Uber has become the iOS for transportation. And I'm so comfortable with it. It's so deeply integrated in my life.

53:46I understand it. My credit cards are there that I think that these guys are going to figure out a way to work together. and you know it's sort of like the people are the default operating system you know android and ios have so much power because consumers are comfortable with that ui or even maybe maybe another analogy would be like boeing versus delta like boeing's going to make the plane but delta developed the network and the customer base you're going to book your your flight with delta the idea of me pulling up Waymo, that app, downloading it, uploading my credit cards, as opposed to just Uber, which has the selection, the option of autonomous or the option of an SUV or the option if I don't want, if I want a driver, I just think they're going to be in a position to drive so much customer value that they'll be able to negotiate contracts and say, look, You can't fuck us.

54:44I think they're going about it the right way. The same way that Apple said, we're not going to spend a ton of money on developing our own browser instead or our own search. We're going to just cash a check for$20 billion from someone else and focus on other things. I think Uber actually has made the right choice. I mean, because remember initially they were really big and autonomous and spending a lot of money on it. No, they certainly made that decision independently, yeah. I think they're actually, I think it's a smart idea for them. I think they're going to still be a winner here. I think there'll be room for more.

55:14I think Waymo will be a big winner here. And I think Uber will also be a big winner. Let's take a look at the week ahead. We'll see earnings from Walmart, from Toyota and Alibaba. We'll also see the consumer price and producer price indices for April. Scott, do you have any predictions? So my prediction, Ed, is that Alibaba is going to beat. I think that one of the knock-on effects here is that Alibaba and Chinese companies have had this overhang of being Chinese. And I saw this data that just blew my mind. And I presented it in Hamburg, Germany yesterday. And that is that for the first time in history, when you survey people from around the globe, more of them believe that China is a force for good in the world than the U.S.

56:00And I just could – it just absolutely blew my mind. That's crazy. How does that drill down to Alibaba? I think that European companies and international companies have been felt much more confident using American cloud providers to store their data. And I think a lot of them are now reconsidering potentially using Chinese companies, specifically Alibaba, for their cloud needs. And I think Alibaba is going to report earnings that show especially strong growth in their cloud unit, which will give their stock a pop. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer, Our associate producer is Alison Weiss.

56:34Mia Salverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Dan Shallan is our intern. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. Join us on Thursday for our conversation with Alice Hahn, only on Prof G Markets.

57:05In kind reunion As the world turns And it's not blood

57:31I mean, okay, so I'm a little bit triggered by delivery because it's put a real strain on my marriage. At first, it was some drunken one-night stand during a business trip. Then it was her boss and the pool guy. And lately she's been fucking, you know, let me start over. I was trying to follow that joke. No. So, look, I relate to delivery. This is the last straw. I'm now divorcing my wife. At first it was one night stands, then her boss, then our pool guy, then the delivery guy. And then it was her very own stepbrother, Ed, and even my own best friend. I don't know, Ed. I just can't stop sucking cocks.

58:24What do you think of Uber earnings? Are you going to rotate out of the business world and just get a full send into the comedy world? You need to start hanging out with comedians. I'm descending into something. It's not the comedy world. I'm definitely descending into something. But no, it's not the comedy world. I love that joke. I've used that joke a lot. That's a big, that's a crowd pleaser. That's a crowd pleaser. Is it? You know, I'm not sure. We'll find out in the comments. It's hard to know when you're sort of, we're not even hearing the audience. We're sort of on a podcast. I think that's important.

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1:00:03See you next time. It's time to do your best work with the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Support for this show comes from Airbus. It took 100 years for electric vehicles to catch on. Modern solar panels? Half a century. Lithium batteries? Decades to go from their debut to daily use. It's a pattern. Energy tech breaks through, stalls, and then something tips the scales. But for every success, there are even more almosts. So, what if there was a breakthrough sitting at this crossroads right now? SAF, or sustainable aviation fuel, could forever change the future of flight. Learn more about how Airbus is contributing to accelerate this journey at fly.airbus.com slash theflightpath.