Is Reddit Undervalued? + Netflix Goes After Podcasts

26:07We're back with ProfG Markets. Reddit reported fourth quarter earnings that largely beat analyst expectations, with sales up 71 % from a year earlier. It also posted its second quarterly profit since going public. However, the stock dropped more than 13 % after user growth missed expectations. CEO Steve Huffman explained that a change in Google search algorithm led to, quote, volatility in user growth, but assured investors that traffic has since recovered. Scott, you are a Reddit, pretty significant Reddit shareholder. What are your initial reactions here? Look, I'm just pissed off. Now, after this drawdown today, I'm only up 500%, not 600.

26:51Is that true? Is that the number? Well, price at$35. Let's find out the number. Price at$35. It's at 200. So what is that? Up about 450%. Yeah. Okay. And that's in seven months? Yeah. Look, this was a fucking layup. This was, if you believe we're in an attention economy and you can transition or arbitrage or turn, convert attention into dollars, this company still has a long way to go. And that is, I mean, it was up 71 % year on year. Average revenue was up 28%. Net income quadrupled to 71 million. I think that a lot of people just said, okay, with this kind of valuation, maybe it's gotten out over its skis, but I think it's already recovered some of those losses today.

27:42It's an asset-like company. It's got sort of meta-like margins of 93%. 33%. Meta's gross margins were 82 % because they keep making these ridiculous CapEx investments in things like headsets. Get this, because of Alphabet's big investments in cloud and AI, their gross margins are 58%. Apple's was 47%, which makes sense because they're on hardware. But gross margins at the fourth or fifth most trafficked site in the world are 93%. So So I would argue and see above shareholder. I mean, it's still, I don't want to say it looks cheap. It's hard to think of something up four and a half fold that looks cheap, but its worth is between 50 and 60.

28:26It's one fiftieth the value of sites above and behind it. So now the problem is it hasn't been able to monetize as well, but with year on year revenue increases of 70 plus percent, it appears that it's doing pretty well. The problem is, unless its monetization comes up, its average revenue per user was$4.20, but Meta is about three and a half times higher. So on a book level, it looks expensive. Their key is very straightforward. They got the traffic. That's usually the hard part. They have to show their ability to continue to increase ARPU. But the takeaway also going second order effect, we've said that as it relates to podcasting, that there's going to be this incredible dynamism in the podcasting space over the next 12 months where you're going to see of the top 100 podcasts, you're going to see 50 new ones and you're going to see 50 drop out.

29:22And the arbiter of that churn is going to be YouTube, which is now the largest distribution platform for podcasts. People spending more time listening to podcasts on YouTube than on Apple or Spotify. I think in 2026, the arbiter of podcasts and the biggest growing distribution mechanism of podcasts is gonna be Reddit. I think Reddit is so perfect for podcasting. Think about the discussions, the threads, and the audience. I think if you could figure out a way to distribute clips, full podcasts, live podcasts, to me, it's just out of central casting to become the Spotify or the YouTube of podcasting.

29:59That's very interesting. I didn't expect you to say that. I mean, you mentioned the valuation there that perhaps it's undervalued. I'm with you. I think this is still undervalued. And I think, you know, dropping 13 % after that quarter, I don't think was warranted. The thing that Wall Street was upset about clearly was the user number. So users grew 39 % to 101.7 million. Investors were expecting 103 million. And I think what really freaked them out was what Reddit said about this change in the Google search algorithm. So you might remember last year, Reddit got this big boost because Google changed how it ranks search results.

30:44It was called the Hidden Gems Update. and the new Google algorithm basically prioritized what they called authentic content. So that is content that is user generated, that you find on forums, that you find on chat rooms, i.e. Reddit. So this was a great thing for Reddit last year. Now, according to the CEO, this quarter, or this last quarter, Google changed the algorithm again. And we don't really know why or what exactly changed, but that was why you saw this, quote, volatility in the user growth. And I think that's what upset Wall Street here, this idea that Reddit is too reliant on Google, they're not growing organically on their own.

31:25And so when Google changes their algorithm, suddenly that causes a problem for their growth. I think that's a fair criticism. I think the bigger criticism of Reddit, though, and this is a bull case, is they just punch below their weight on everything. Ninth most visited website in the world. It's higher than Netflix. It's higher than Amazon. You've got 100 million daily active users. So these are people who are using it every single day. They don't release the monthly active users, but it's estimated to be around a billion. A billion people using this once a month, at least. And yet the company is worth only$35 billion.

32:04It's less than a tenth of the value of Netflix. And so we're talking about this as a team. and Mia did this really interesting analysis so we were discussing like the cultural significance of reddit you know the idea how important is reddit to society and we landed on this term mindshare um and we wanted to figure out a way to kind of quantify that for reddit is there a way to come up with a score for the amount of mindshare that reddit has in people's minds and their conversations in society at large. So Mia did this analysis. She looked at website visits. She looked at mentions on TV, Wikipedia page views, job search volume, how many analysts track the stock, et cetera, et cetera.

32:54All these different metrics to kind of get a gauge for this mindshare. And then she came out with a weighted average, and we called it the mindshare score. And what she found is that Reddit's mindshare rating is only four times lower than Google's. But if you look at the market cap, it's more than 60 times lower. So in other words, if you were to look at Reddit as a multiple of mindshare, and let's be clear, this is very non-gap. We came up with these metrics on our own. But if you looked at it as a multiple of mindshare, Reddit is severely undervalued. And so this begs the question, what does Reddit need to start doing to start punching above its weight, or at least to live up to the expectations that come with the fact that you are a top 10 website in the world, that everyone knows who you are, everyone who uses the internet is using Reddit in some sense.

33:44We use it all the time, and we have our Reddit page, which I love, and we love engaging on that. But the company is still very small relative to its peers. So what do you think it would take? I guess you mentioned the podcast there, but what else do you think it would take for Reddit to start punching at least in line with or above its weight? My father peaked at the age of about 48 or 49 professionally, and then he was the national sales manager for OMScott. A fertilizer company, which I realize is kind of a weak flex. But he used to roam around to the equivalent of Lowe's and Home Depot's and Sears and become buddies with the person in charge of lawn care, the lawn care outdoor department there.

34:31And my dad is super fucking charming. I mean, ridiculously charming. And then sell them basically bags of shit.

34:44and anyways and but that was when he peaked and then he went on you know and then he started a string of four or five divorces and then left me hold me it hold me anyways he used to say to me he had all these like tests to decide if i'd be a good salesperson or not and i remember we used to sell subscriptions and whatever and sorry to test if you would be a good salesperson yeah he He thought sales was everything. And he used to sign me up for stuff, like selling magazine subscriptions. And he used to give me a thing and he'd say, this is your app. And he'd practice with me at the door and he'd send me out on a Saturday.

35:25And basically, like mothers used to say, they're Roman warriors. Come home with your shield or on it. And he's like, how many subscriptions do you think you're going to get? He'd give me a quota. I'm like eight fucking years old. I kind of love this. I was eight. I'm sure it was dramatizing. I was eight. I love this. And I'd roam around the Shores community in Laguna Niguel, and I'd knock on doors, and I'd say, hi, I'm Scott Galloway. I'm at whatever it was, Emilita. And we're doing a magazine drive to try and raise money for our school. I live down the road. And he'd say, throw in your interest.

35:54And I'm like, I like the big wheel, and I like I Dream of Jeannie. And he'd be like, no, don't say I Dream of Jeannie. And I'm like, he'd say something else. I'm like, Brady Bunch is like, better, more wholesome. And I'd roam around the neighborhood. This explains so much. Keep going. I'd roam around the neighborhood. And I'm not exaggerating it. I sold more subscriptions to Life and Reader's Digest than any nine-year-old in Emilita Elementary School history. And he used to have all these tests for me around whether I'd be a good sales person or not. Who am I kidding? Salesman. They didn't have any women back there.

36:30And one of his tests that I remember is he used to, or this adage he used to have is that a salesman, a shoe salesman goes to Africa. Two salesmen go to Africa and one comes back and says, it's never going to work here. Nobody wears any shoes. And then the second comes back and goes, oh my God, this is amazing. Nobody has any shoes. and it reminds me a bit of what you're saying because the fact that their valuation in ARPU are so low relative to the space they command that's this is amazing no one has any shoes and that is you kind of answered your own question there's a lot of upside here and if they keep growing revenues 73 percent a year they're going to catch up pretty quick if there is this much room to run, as you say, and which, by the way, I agree with.

37:18I think there's huge opportunity. Shouldn't they be burning money? I mean, this is the other thing that stood out to me is that they are now profitable. They were profitable the quarter before this, and then they were profitable last quarter. And it feels like they've now tethered themselves to earning a profit. But I feel like what we're describing is a nascent company that should arguably be losing money, trying to invest in growth, trying to get more users, trying to acquire customers, trying to figure out a monetization strategy. But instead, they're churning out$71 million in net income at a$35 billion market cap.

38:04And I look at that, and I see bigger things for this company, couldn't they think bigger and just lose money at least for a couple more years until they really get some traction? I think you're right. My advice to Stephen Huffman would be and is growth. At this point, just growth. And the problem is when you go profitable, it's hard to go back. And because everyone will say, you know, Reddit slips back into losing money. And And for them, it's all about, at this point, it's all about growth and closing that delta you're talking about where market cap and revenue is equivalent to attention. I would have found ways to spend that money, more partnerships, more salespeople, more content, more original content.

38:52That's eventually where they will go. So this is, I mean, when you think about it, Reddit probably would have been one of the better acquisitions before they'd gone public for any one of a number of companies, right? But I agree with you. I wouldn't have gone, I would have spent more aggressively to get growth from 72 % to 80 % or 90 % or extend it longer. I don't think shareholders want dividends at this point. I think they want to see 100 % user growth. Yeah, they want growth. And whatever if you're losing money. Yeah, I think that's right. We'll be right back. And by the way, we'll be taping this podcast live at South by Southwest on March 10th.

39:32Head to voxmedia.com slash SXSW to learn how to join us. Hope to see you there.

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42:57We're back with ProfG Markets. Netflix is exploring the possibility of expanding into video podcasts. The streaming giant has reportedly reached out to high-profile podcasters, including Alex Cooper of Call Her Daddy, to create talk-based video shows, though Cooper is currently under a three-year deal with SiriusXM. While still in the early stages, Netflix is reportedly considering two strategies, securing exclusive content from top podcasters or providing access to existing shows without ads. Scott, let's get your take on this potential move. But I think the real question is, I mean, I'm just reading out this headline, reportedly reached out to high-profile podcasters.

43:36Have you gotten a phone call? So Amy Atkins was this woman in high school I had this enormous crush on. I just want to point out, I love that the answer, which I expect to be no, must be delivered as a parable. I was so in love with Amy Atkins, and she kind of pretended to like me and da-da-da. and then she shows up one day and says oh this is my boyfriend sean and i'm like oh and i wanted to strangle him and i'm like wait that's terrible you got a boyfriend and it's not me and anyways i'm not exaggerating i sent an email to ted's around us last night and i'm like fucking alex cooper alex cooper what did you say what is what exactly did you say i i i don't know ted well, but I know him.

44:29And by the way, he's an incredibly decent, nice, thoughtful man. And obviously built this amazing company. But I got to be honest, I felt a little like, who's this guy, Sean? I find out in Business Insider, your instant podcast, I got nothing. He didn't call me. He didn't call me for advice. He didn't send me a message saying, oh you and ed and cara's name came up but we decided we don't want to be in news or you dropped too many f-bombs on cnn nothing just news that he's he's dating alex cooper right so no we did not hear from netflix and it i i read about it and it just kind of so back back to the actual story here it makes all the sense in the world and people are constantly saying okay okay, will Netflix go into sports?

45:21No, well, what do you know? They go into sports. Will Netflix go into live? Will they go into gaming? They're going into, if there's a tension there and a chance to get subscriptions and differentiate their offering, you should assume they're going to go there. And it makes all the sense in the world because the primary arbiter of the next evolution of the fastest growing ad-supported medium podcast is video. And the guy who's about to displace, or one of our predictions, is the guy who's going to displace Joe Rogan as the biggest podcaster in the world is this guy, Stephen Bartlett, because he got very serious about video, production quality, optimizing Mr.

45:58Beasting, his thumbnails, different titles. He called me, I was on with Constantine, I forget his name, this thoughtful conservative kid. Constantine Kissin. And then this third guy, whose name I forget, who was also very thoughtful. Stephen Bartlett brought us on to talk about the state of the world. And I was supposed to represent America And every comment was, that douchebag prof does not represent America. Anyways, he called me, or no, he didn't call me. He texted me, left me a voice memo the next day and said, this is going to be, this will do 4 million views. This is amazing. Congratulations.

46:34And I immediately went to YouTube and it was like at 63 ,000. I'm like, it's at 63 ,000. He's like, oh no, our algorithms have already figured out it's going to be around 4 million. That's how sophisticated he is around video, is that within a half an hour of putting it on YouTube, he knows how big the video is going to be. And they do all these A-B testing. And what he does on his pod is he will go to New York for a month, go to L.A. for a month, and he does, he demands in-person interviews. The thing I did with Constantine was the first time they had ever done a podcast remotely. He demands for, again, for video production quality.

47:10While everyone is trying to get rid of the studio, he's going the other way. And Rich Roll does the same thing. Rich Roll forces you to go out to Agoura Hills, which is not fun. Shout out Rich. I love Rich. He's fantastic. He's the kind of guy you want as a big brother. He's so thoughtful and soulful and handsome. And you're like, I'm coming back as Rich Roll. But he makes you go out to Agoura Hills. And he has all these, like Stephen Bartlett, he has all these cameramen. And he must have spent a ton of money early on, gave up all his profits, imported into video. That is the new Arbiter. And when you think about the premier video platform, YouTube, number two is Netflix.

47:45And I imagine Netflix will go high end and they'll say to someone like fucking caller daddy or some other bullshit, he'll say, we'll make this really cool and interesting. And by the way, if you're looking to be the number one podcast in the world, we can do that with a simple tweak of the algorithm. And in 36 hours by putting you on the homepage of Netflix for 36 hours, it's one of those things I wish I'd thought of. And that is Netflix will overnight be able to take, they'll own a bunch of podcasts. They might start early by just being a distribution platform, learning about it, making some ad revenue.

48:20And then they will go vertical and either launch their own or buy some. And they will make, I would bet within 24 to 36 months, three of the 10 biggest podcasts in the world are owned by Netflix. Because they have the platform. They can put it everywhere and then they can maybe distribute it to YouTube, put it on Apple and Spotify a week later. Members get it a week early, whatever it might be. But this just makes this is right as rain. Yeah, I think it's right as rain. I don't think it's going to play out the way you've described. I mean, I think the question is like, what is this going to actually look like?

48:55And I think the scenario you're describing is Netflix takes kind of the Spotify strategy where you reach out to these podcasters and you offer them these exclusive deals to be the exclusive platform for that podcast. I'd call that like the Spotify Joe Rogan strategy. I personally don't think it's going to look like that. I think it's going to look a little bit more like the Mr. Beast Amazon deal, where Amazon paid Mr. Beast$100 million to create just one TV series with Mr. Beast, which is now out and you can watch it right now. Meanwhile, Mr. Beast is free to keep posting his videos on YouTube.

49:34so in other words i think netflix isn't necessarily going after podcasting the medium i think they're going after podcasters the talent um and that's going to be an incredible thing for people like alex cooper and for joe rogan and theo vaughn and all these people all these people who've kind of become like the new hollywood superstars i mean you think about how it's changed. These people are the Jennifer Aniston's and the Ben Stiller's of our time. And I think that's what Netflix is really excited about. And they want to capitalize on that, not necessarily to be the new podcast platform, but certainly to be the platform that owns, or at least has some level of relationship with the biggest stars in the world.

50:19And it just so happens the biggest stars in the world today, they're making podcasts. That's kind of what they do now. Yeah, the name, I love your take. And the name that just jumps out and makes all kinds of sense is Theo Vaughn, because he's also a comedian. I mean, they could say to Theo, we'll double or triple the size of your podcast audience. And by the way, we're going to sign you up for a four, one-hour comedy special on Netflix. And we're going to pay you a crazy amount of money. And basically, if you want access to Theo Vaughn, which tens of millions of people do. He's got such a nice, authentic vibe about him.

50:54Where can you find Theo Vaughn? On Netflix. I think you wrote about this in a No Mercy, No Malice post. It's got a little too much attention for my liking. But you talked about, it's no longer about brands, it's about people. People are the new brands. People are the new brands. I mean, I just think about the potential. My mind's spinning. The guy from Smartless, by the way, I was on their podcast, but I haven't put it out yet. I don't know. I recorded like three weeks ago. But anyways, those guys are just so good on TV and they're so funny. They're interesting because they already were Hollywood stars.

51:25That's right. Then they switched. They could come back again. That's right. But they're all really appealing on camera. And let's be clear. I think you would be amazing too. I'm sorry. When did you say it? I'm sorry. Go ahead. I'm not going to repeat it. I said it once. I think that would be an incredible idea. I don't think that it should be CNN+. I don't think it should be... I mean, maybe let's take this opportunity to think about it. I mean, if you're talking your own book here, because when we go out, people come up to you. They're like, oh, hi, Scott. And they literally run over me to Ed.

51:55I have my I'd like, are you taken? I have a daughter at SMU. It's always I have a daughter. Well, yeah. Is there anything wrong with that? But they want to. Yeah. Yeah. You're I'm like, I'm like, we're that movie, The Substance. And I'm definitely Demi Moore. And you're like the hot young chick. I like did emerge from my body. Anyways, have you seen The Substance? I haven't seen it, but that makes sense. But let's just think about it for a second. Like, what do you think a Scott Galloway Netflix show should look like? And I think that this is an opportunity to think, like, imagine we are a Netflix producer.

52:35Like, what kind of content do you think people are looking from podcasters? Because I will say, I don't think it's just a video podcast. They can already get that on YouTube. They can already get that on Spotify. I also don't think it's whatever the fuck CNN Plus was. Something about that didn't work. It was maybe - Jake Tapper's book club? Exactly. That wasn't riveting content? It's too produced. You lose all of the authentic feel that you get with the podcast and with that relationship with podcasters. What do you think a good Netflix show for a podcaster would look like? Well, it would be Scott and Ed.

53:09So I think eventually Netflix goes into news and they do a loop where they So a daily business update where it's more highly produced, more graphics, more visuals. And also, if you were going to do a regular podcast every week, what I think you'd want to do, if you're talking about your guest is Richard Reeves, you take 15 or 20 minutes and you go talk to parents and young men. You just, quite frankly, you take podcasting and you just massively increase the production value. Because right now the means of production are, and this is the thing I love about podcasting, and the thing that scares me about this, is the means of production are basically what looks like a toiletry kit for me.

53:50And that is Drew, who's our tech wizard, puts together this little dop kit for me. And it's the size, it's smaller than a lunch pail or literally like a toiletry kit. And I can take it anywhere and pull out my mic, plug it into my laptop, and boom, I'm podcasting. The game is going to be upped. And you're going to see podcasts where it's an hour-long podcast, but they'll do breakouts. And when we're talking about Reddit, it breaks to like a three-minute thing where they're interviewing the CEO or they use amazing visuals to go online and talk about Reddit and what's interesting about it. But the game, the bar is going to be raised.

54:26And they have such incredible depth of talent that they'll be able to say, okay, Scott and Ed, if you want to do a daily market show, we have an unbelievable production team in not only in New Jersey, but in Madrid. and when you're done recording at 7 p.m., we have our folks in L.A. take it over, then they throw it over the wall to the folks in Madrid at 3 in the morning, where it's 8 in the morning their time, and they produce just this really impressive podcast meets Hollywood, if you will. Let me put it in the days of me just tapping in from the Dolphin Hotel and Walt Disney World and getting a quarter of a million people to listen that day with the bad curtains in the background, I'm not sure that shit's going to survive.

55:12Well, that is the big question. Can you do that? Can you invest that much, bring in that many people and maintain the level of authenticity that you get on podcasts? I would argue, I don't think - That's a great point. It's possible to do that. I think the more highly produced you get, the less real things start to feel. And there's something - That's interesting. There's something nice about you being in a hotel and there's a curtain behind you and we can actually see what is happening in your life. Because as I've said, I think the thing that people crave most is connection with people. This is what I wrote about in that blog post, People Are The New Brands.

55:47They crave connection with real people because of this issue with loneliness that we keep on seeing. And I don't think that a highly produced Netflix series is going to be the kind of thing that addresses that level of connectivity and authenticity that you get with podcasts. We should tease. We're thinking, well, we're not thinking. We've decided Prop G Markets, which is the fastest growing part of our podcast empire, we're going to go to daily. And one of the things we're talking about is, all right, Scott's traveling all the time. Scott doesn't want to work that hard. And how do we incorporate Scott into a daily show?

56:25and you guys came up with this notion of, and it's speaking to authenticity, that it's like, where in the world is Scott? And I would literally tap in on my phone wherever I am and just provide a viewpoint. And your view and Claire's view, and I thought it was really insightful, was rather than trying to mimic 80 % of the production value when I'm in studio, just put it on your phone and it's just wherever you are at that moment and Ed is asking questions or you're giving your view, but go the other way and make it very raw. like live from the bar at Maison Estelle or wherever I'm getting drunk.

56:58You know, Scott, go into a bathroom stall and tell us what you think about the Reddit earnings. But I thought that was really interesting. But whatever Netflix does, everything is sort of colliding back to where what's old is new again, right? We're kind of reassembling the cable bundle. It's advertising, but it's also subscription. But I think that podcasts are gonna become more like TV than TV is gonna become like podcasts. Anyways, I think it's going to be fascinating to see, but it's just, you hear this and you just know in 24 months, there's a non-zero probability that what everyone's talking about YouTube and podcasts, people are going to start talking about Netflix and podcasts.

57:39I also think Reddit. It's about who controls, who has custody of the consumer, who has the trust and the direct vertical interface with the consumer. Okay, let's take a look at the week ahead. We'll see earnings from Walmart and Alibaba. We'll also see consumer sentiment data for February. Do you have any predictions for us, Scott? I can't help it. I'm a broken clock here. Tesla is imploding. It's absolutely imploding. Its sales are off between 10 % and 60 % across European nations. It was off, I believe they're off 11 % in China. In a growing market, BYD is producing as good a car for 40 % of the price.

58:19they haven't had a new vehicle a new kind of mass vehicle introduction in over six years when when i'm getting into teslas and i'm biased but i think they just feel stale i think the competition has caught up and even surpassed them and then i think about what he's done with the brand uh just trashing it with nazi salutes like a you know the model tesla ss and changing his pronouns to he and Himmler. I just think this is going to catch up. It already is. And you're seeing sales imploding. Meanwhile, it has this just ridiculous fucking multiple. And I've always said this, that stock prices are like Michael Jordan jumping from the free throw line.

59:02It feels like he's never going to come down and he always does. And fundamentals, I don't care if you're GameStop, I don't care if you're true social. At some point, Michael Jordan hits the hardwood again. I think the stock is below 200 in the next six months. Good luck. We've said this before. They always find a way to justify it. I mean, I agree with everything you said, and yet I don't think it'll happen because the market always somehow, this company, they just love this company. They always figure out a way to say, no, no, there's still more room to run. But we'll see. Yeah, I'm sticking to my guns here.

59:37It is time. It is time. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. Join us on Thursday for our conversation with Kyla Scanlon, only on Prof G Markets.

1:00:13You have me In kind reunion As the world turns And the dark flies In love

1:00:43do you want to hear my other movie impression yes please and i'll ask you to guess who it is okay you ready how about no who is that who is that the uh mike myers what's the guy's name that's right that's right what is that movie the spy i love me you're getting warner you're getting warmer mike myer um austin powers there you go very good anyways that's good inflation So, yeah, speaking of inflation, let's talk about the cost of private schools in America.

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