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Prof G Markets: Episode Summary
Episode Title
Project 2025 & An Inside Scoop on Trump’s Presidency — ft. Anthony Scaramucci
Episode Description
In this episode, Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, shares insights on Project 2025, the implications of a potential second Trump presidency, and his personal experiences in the Trump White House. He expresses concerns about authoritarianism and discusses the upcoming electoral landscape, including the necessity for Biden to succeed against Trump.
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Key Themes and Discussions
- Project 2025 and Authoritarian Concerns
- Definition: Project 2025 is an initiative led by the Heritage Foundation aimed at implementing Trump’s policies if he returns to office.
- Scaramucci's View: He describes it as a potential pathway to totalitarianism, emphasizing the dangers of rolling back social policies like DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and abortion rights.
- Cultural Impact: He warns that the project aims to promote a form of governance that could lead to significant human rights violations, such as mass deportations.
- Political Landscape and Biden's Challenges
- Biden's Viability: Scaramucci acknowledges Biden's struggles, especially regarding his age and public perception, but argues that he still has name recognition and fundraising power.
- Voter Sentiment: Emphasizes that low-information voters may still favor Biden due to his incumbency and familiarity.
- Potential Alternatives: Discusses the idea of young Democratic leaders stepping forward, suggesting that a new candidate could invigorate the party and present a stronger challenge to Trump.
- Trump's Campaign and Political Strategy
- Disciplined Approach: Scaramucci notes that Trump is more organized and disciplined in his strategy this time, which poses a challenge for Biden.
- Perception of Power: He emphasizes that Trump’s approach is centered around personal power and undermining democratic processes.
- Insights from Scaramucci's Time in the White House
- Personal Reflections: Shares anecdotes from his brief tenure as Communications Director, highlighting the chaos within the administration and Trump's insecurities.
- Coping with Setbacks: Discusses the importance of resilience and learning from failure, both personally and professionally.
- Market Reactions and Economic Insights
- Investor Sentiment: Scaramucci discusses how markets typically react positively to political inertia, suggesting that uncertainty can lead to stability in investment.
- Biden vs. Trump: He argues that, despite Trump's perception as pro-business, Biden’s administration is better for capitalism in the long run.
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Key Takeaways
- Authoritarianism Warning: The content of Project 2025 raises alarms about potential shifts toward authoritarian governance in the U.S.
- Political Dynamics: Biden's age and the need for compelling alternatives highlight ongoing challenges for the Democratic Party.
- Understanding Trump: Scaramucci’s insights into Trump’s psychology reveal a complex figure driven by personal insecurities and a desire for power.
- Market Stability: The markets thrive amid political uncertainty, indicating a nuanced relationship between politics and economics.
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Conclusion This episode of Prof G Markets provides a profound exploration of the current political landscape, particularly concerning Trump’s influence and the ramifications of Project 2025. Scaramucci’s experiences and insights add depth to the discussion about the future of American democracy and its economic implications.
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Follow-Up Listeners are encouraged to engage with the podcast on various social media platforms and share their thoughts or questions for future discussions.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This episode is brought to you by On Investing, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. I'm Kathy Jones, Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. And I'm Lizanne Saunders, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist. Between us, we have decades of experience studying the indicators that drive the economy and how they can have a direct impact on your investments. We know that investors have a lot of questions about the markets and the economy, and we're here to help. Join us each week as we explore questions like, how do you evaluate corporate bonds? And what sectors of the stock market are outperforming?
0:31So Kathy will analyze what's happening in the bond market and at the Fed, and I'll give you our latest analysis of the equities market and the U.S. economy. And we often interview prominent guests from across the world of investing and business. So download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash oninvesting or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:55Support for this show comes from strawberry.me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job or are you stuck in one you've outgrown? or never wanted in the first place? Sure, you can probably list the reasons for staying, but are they actually just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from strawberry.me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner. Go to strawberry.me slash unstuck to claim a special offer. Today's number, 36. That's the percentage of Americans who plan to go into debt so they can take a vacation this summer. My plan to have no more kids, throw down Discover card when I'm on a date.
1:38If that doesn't work, just brag a little bit about my magic and then take that lovely lady home in a Kia. Boom! No more kids for the dog.
1:55Welcome to Prof G Markets. Today we're speaking with Anthony Scaramucci about his time in the Trump administration, the threat of Project 2025 and the state of political fundraising. But first, here at the news is PropG analyst and Discover Card holder, Ed Elson. Ed, what is a good word? I'm very well. We missed you last week. How was Greece? It was wonderful, and I've decided that I need to recover. So I'm in Munich, and I'm about to, in about half an hour, I'm going to go see Spain versus France in the semifinals of the Euros. So, yeah, life goes from— The vacation never ends, huh? Better, better, best.
2:33You're learning too much from the Europeans. You're supposed to be working hard. Like I said, my reductive analysis after molesting the world for 30 years is earn your money or make your money in the U.S. and spend it in Europe. So I am spending it in Europe, Ed. Predictions for who's going to win the Euros? I'm all in on Team England. I think that everyone is so critical of Southgate. I can't understand. It literally embodies the British people for me. is this guy is in the semifinals. I think they've had some of the fewest goals scored against them. They've had probably, arguably, the best goal of the tournament, Bellingham's bicycle kick, and everyone is just furious at the coach.
3:11Yeah, but the trouble with him is how he takes credit for it. I mean, I don't know if you saw his interviews afterwards, but that was all Bellingham. And then in the post-match interview, he's like, yeah, you know, it was a last-minute decision to bring Ivan Toney on. And I'm really glad I made that decision. It's the ultimate taking credit for something that you should not be taking credit for. But it's such a fun moment. Oh, 100%. It's such a good time. Yeah, it's incredible. Every time Cole Palmer comes on the sidelines as if he's going to be stepped in, my boys literally go crazy. They start jumping on the bed.
3:44I go ballistic. Yeah, he's fantastic. Anyways, get to the headlines. Let's do it. Now is the time to buy. I hope you'll have plenty of the well-resolved. Tesla's stock rose 27 % in a week, erasing all its losses for the year. The$200 billion rally was partially due to a better-than-expected second-quarter deliveries report. Saks Fifth Avenue's parent company is buying Neiman Marcus for$2.65 billion. Amazon and Salesforce will also take a stake in the company and provide technology and logistics for the luxury retailers. And finally, Paramount has agreed to a merger with Skydance Media at last.
4:24As part of the deal, the Ellison family and Redbird Capital will invest more than$8 billion in Paramount to buy shares and to help pay down the company's debt. The stock fell 6 % on the news. Scott, reactions to these headlines? The Paramount story, it's like when I go to, I don't know, it's like when I went to the Barbie movie. I pretend to enjoy it, and all I can think about is when is this fucking thing going to be over? Let's just put it. Just pretend this whole Paramount thing is a dog, a sick dog, and the governor of North Dakota gets a hold of it. Let's just take it to a gravel pit. I am so sick of talking about this company with its mediocre brands and its mid-cap to small-cap market cap.
5:08Good. But unfortunately, I don't think the fat lady sung here because as a good board, you have to have a 45-day go shop. And the thing that was getting in the way and scaring off all bidders was essentially Sherry is a billionaire kid who is irrational. We just don't want to deal with her. And now that she's actually signed a deal with public terms, I would be shocked if a bunch of players ranging from Barry Diller to someone you've never heard of before is getting out their pencil and thinking, Well, should we maybe look at these assets and come in with a topping bid? So unfortunately, I don't think this thing may be over.
5:42I hope it is. Move on. MTV, Mission Impossible. Best of luck to you. Ellison, The Kid, great. A new dynasty in media we can all obsess over as they lose money. And with that, let's move on to the Tesla headline. So, I mean, there was a deliveries report ahead of their earnings report, which is in a few weeks. They delivered 444 ,000 vehicles, which was above expectations. Wall Street expected 439 ,000 deliveries, and that's why the stock ripped on this announcement. Now, what's interesting to me is, yes, it punched in above expectations, but it's very interesting to see how far expectations for Tesla have fallen over time.
6:25And I mean this in a very literal sense. So there was an expected 439 ,000 deliveries in Q2. But if you look at the expectations for Q2 from a month ago, the number for expected deliveries was 448 ,000. Six months ago, it was 542 ,000. And a year ago, it was 565 ,000. In other words, the expectations for this company, just on this one metric, have fallen 22 % in the past year. And meanwhile, if you look at the stock after this rally, the stock is only down around 6%. So, you know, yes, maybe it was being a little oversold, but as always with Tesla, if you want to justify the price of this stock, which is currently trading at 64 times earnings, you've got Toyota at 16, Volkswagen at four, this is 64 times earnings.
7:17To justify that valuation, you still have to believe that there's something much bigger in the pipeline for this company than just selling cars. It's a meme stock. It's an absolute meme stock is the way I see it. It's just taken on a life of its own. Let's talk about Saks and Neiman Marcus. One of the biggest trends in retail over the last 40 years has been verticalization. And that is department stores. My dad and I, whenever we needed to buy my stepmom, my new mommy, a gift, we'd go to Sears or JCPenney's because they had all these brands at a decent price. They brought everything together. You didn't have to make that many decisions.
7:54The service was mediocre. It was overpriced. And then these luxury brands said the key is the brand experience. And rather than selling Hermes or Cartier or Rolex or Clarence, whatever it might be, through these department stores that have multiple brands, we're going to invest in our own real estate and we're going to forward integrate into retail and we're going to make crazy strong brands. So instead of selling Panerai through Neiman Marcus, we're going to build Panerai stores that are just all about the brand instead of having, I mean, Coach did it. Everybody slowly but surely started picking apart the department store and people decided they wanted to have surgical strikes in a more branded environment.
8:32And you had a massive transfer of market capitalization from department stores to the brands themselves. And you have seen brands from, Hermes is now worth more than Nike. And even Nike said, we're pulling out of Foot Locker, not entirely, but we're going to focus on building vertical channels. And those are the brands, Lululemon, Sephora, those are the brands that have really captured a ton of market share. So this is what you do in a down market. You consolidate. They'll cut costs. What's really interesting here is that obviously they have very strong databases. They have strong direct-to-consumer businesses, and they're taking investments from Amazon and Salesforce, who are the gangsters in e-commerce.
9:13and CRM. So this is a retreat and an acknowledgement that technology now runs the roost in retail. But what it is, is it's kind of that it's almost sort of it signals the beginning of the end of an era called department stores. One of my first jobs in high school was in Bullocks, this high end, this high end department store that was eventually acquired by Macy's. Macy's is a shadow of itself. So again, I would argue this is kind of the beginning of the end of this era. Any thoughts on what's in it for Amazon here? Why would they invest in this slightly outdated physical retail chain? The place Amazon has largely been sequestered or elbowed out of the way, and I don't know if this deal helps, but I think it might, is from the luxury category.
9:56And that is the best luxury brands have pretty much said, including beauty brands, we just don't want to play with Amazon. And that is difficult because Amazon shows up every day. I remember when Toomey went on Amazon and says, you know what? What are your, hey, head of North America for Toomey, oh, you're going to miss your numbers. I can increase your gross sales by 30 % this year. But it's a bit of a deal with the devil because then you sort of lose control of your brand slowly but surely. They start the margin from it and it becomes like a crack cocaine addiction. And slowly but surely people start going to the, go straight to amazon.com because Amazon has all the brands.
10:28And the high-end brands don't want Amazon playing with their brand or anywhere near it or touching it or smearing it, that's the way they look at it. So I wonder if Amazon sees an opportunity to get more distribution from some higher-end brands vis-a-vis their relationship with SAC slash Neiman Marcus. All right, we'll be right back with our conversation with Anthony Scaramucci.
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12:06From Pushkin Industries, I'm Jonathan Goldstein, and Heavyweight is back. The new season is bigger than ever. Bigger hopes? I keep waiting for this moment when he says, Mom, I get it. I'm sorry. Bigger dreams? Tom Hanks wants to meet with you. this is a real chance. And bigger heartbreaks. I thought it would be my movie moment. And maybe he would even whisper in my ear, I've always been in love with you. Check out new episodes of Heavyweight on Apple Podcasts.
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13:16Welcome back. Here's our conversation with Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital. Anthony served as the White House Director of Communications for 11 days during the Trump administration. He is also the host of the Open Book and Rest His Politics U.S. podcast. Anthony, thank you so much for joining us. I caught that little sly smile, Ed Elson, when you said 11 days. I caught that. You've got to watch these Brits, Professor Galloway, you know? They got that accent in America, and it, like, gives them an additional 20 IQ points. You've got to be careful with these guys.
13:49And also when you're 14, 11 days seems like a long time. So I wouldn't take it. I wouldn't take it personally. Yeah. No. Yeah. Listen, it was fun. You know, look, you know, you, you know, I told you could also say it was 954 ,000 seconds. Sometimes I have to tell my therapist that it makes me makes me feel better. It makes me feel like it was a little longer. Oh, I can't wait for this one. So we're going to get your take on Biden and Trump in a minute. But first, we should quickly cover what's happening across the pond right now. We saw two huge election results in the past week. In the UK, we had the left-wing Labour Party won in a landslide victory.
14:25It ended 14 years of conservative government. Labour's center-left leader, Keir Starmer, is now the new prime minister. And over in France, there was something of a shock result. The far-right National Rally Party, which was expected to win. Instead, it came in third, and it was the far left, new popular front that took the most seats with President Macron and his allies trailing in second. No party won a majority, and France is now dealing with a hung parliament. Anthony, do you have any just initial reactions to either of those results in the UK or in France? What you're watching around the world right now is some anti-incumbency.
15:03But Joe Scarborough said that to me this morning on Morning Joe, But I said, yeah, but that's not the case in France because they were supposed to lose and they didn't. I think what you're seeing is people are trying to get into the center now again. I think people are trying to get to something practical. And I think those two elections bode well for Joe Biden. Question is, is Joe Biden capable of going from here to the election coherently? You know, we have to honestly assess that. And I don't know the answer to that. But I've been in politics. This is my sixth presidential political cycle. I worked for a number of different presidential candidates over the course of my career as a fundraiser.
15:49After watching his debate performance, should he be running at age 81 for president? The answer to that is no. He should not be running for president. But you know what? He is running for president. He's raised a quarter billion dollars. He's on the ballot everywhere. He's a very well-known name. And guys, we have a lot of low information voters in our society that are not as focused on these elections as the three of us. And, you know, he's a known entity. And the number one thing you need to be president in this country is name recognition. That's the number one thing you need. And if you don't have the name recognition, they pull him and they put up a Kamala Harris.
16:28They put up a Gavin Newsom. You know these people. I know these people. But they don't have five decades of media exposure. And they haven't been sitting as president of the United States for the last four years. So it's a very tough dilemma. But I like if you want Joe Biden to win, which I do, and I'm happy to explain why. But if you if you like Joe Biden and you like Western liberalism and you like the integrity of the system of our democracy, then those two elections bode well for November. That's that's sending an indication because these countries are different, certainly, but they think alike.
17:09Like when the Brexit took place in June of 2016, it was a portend for the November victory of Donald Trump. And it was a narrow victory, but it was a similar ilk of people that voted for Donald Trump in terms of their mindset. You mentioned that there are many low information voters in America, which is true. But don't you think that the debate is one of those single pieces of information that they're going to have in their minds during this election? It sounds like what you believe, though, is this is not as big of a disaster as the rest of us seem to think. No, no. It's a disaster. And I've said that openly.
17:48I said it on the rest of politics, U.S. It's a disaster. I felt bad for the guy as a human being. If you have an elderly parent, again, I say this humbly because we're all aging and I should have the good fortune to get into my 80s and represent like that. No, it's a disaster. I'm not saying that it wasn't a disaster. But I'm saying, can you come back from that? And the answer is yes, you can come back from that if he has a great press conference this coming Thursday with NATO. You can come back from that if he forces himself to do some of the things he's doing. He was very awkwardly on Morning Joe yesterday.
18:25The Stephanopoulos interview did not go well, but it wasn't as big of a disaster as the Thursday debate. You could get him positioned. You know, Professor Galloway is smarter at marketing than me, but you could get him positioned as I'm old, but I don't have dementia. I'm slower, but I'm an experienced hand at this. Now, what's that issue for the United States historically is we've done this before. And the question is, can you do it in this society now with this media glare? We did this in 1944. We had a very frail president. He was in a wheelchair. They tried to hide as much of that as they could from the American people.
19:07He swapped out his hard left vice president for somebody more centrist than Harry Truman. And he died for months. And there was nobody close to Franklin Roosevelt that was surprised at his death four months into his fourth term. The question now, though, is, you know, it may have been a fishbowl back then, but this is a full-sized international aquarium, the White House now. And lots of things leak out of that White House. There are White House officials that are quietly saying to people, geez, I hope he malaprops again quickly so we can swap him out for somebody that would pull better. So is it possible that he could pull out of this?
19:50Yes. Is it likely that he could pull out of it? the best thing he has going for him is Donald Trump. If you had a smart, younger governor, if you had a youngkin going up against Joe Biden right now, those bidding markets would be 80-20. But he's got Donald Trump going up against them. And I'm going to say something flattering about Donald Trump, if you don't mind. He is on message. I'm just letting you guys know. I know the son of Eladic curse on this podcast. I can't remember. Fuck yeah. Okay, yeah, because that's how I got my ass fired from the White House. But I know this son of a bitch a long time.
20:29He didn't listen to anybody but himself in 2016. He had a very sloppy 2020 campaign because of COVID. He is on message. He's got Susie Wiles running that campaign. He's listening to her. Twelve days after the debate, he's given one interview to Sean Hannity. That's by design, fellas. You know, when your enemy is collapsing, Sun Tzu tells you to do nothing. Get out of the way of your enemy's self-inflicted harm. And so Donald Trump could not have done that in 2016 or even in 2020. The debate format helped him. You know what's also helping him is truth social. He's blathering like a simpleton idiot on truth social.
21:15If you read the stuff, you're like, OK, we got to get this guy into a sanitarium. But no one's looking at it because it's not on Twitter or Instagram. Do you see what I mean? So Biden does have Donald Trump as an asset on his ledger. But this is a more disciplined Donald Trump. And this is a more controlled Donald Trump, which makes him a more dangerous Donald Trump. So, Anthony, it's great to have you. I would argue those 11 days were actually very successful because you have sort of come out of all of that. And you talk about awareness. You're now seen as a really, like, thoughtful, authentic voice.
21:52So I would argue that was a successful tenure for you. All right. I love Scott. Ed, just let Scott give all the questions now, okay? I love Scott Gallagher. There you go. Well, I'm going to just say this to you, Professor. It was one of the most brutal times of my life. And I will tell you that it was humbling. and I think you'll appreciate this because I've read several of your books, including your last one about financial security. You become, when you are getting crushed like that, you become way more psychologically aware of your surroundings, of the people around you. You become more empathetic.
22:29And so it was a very tough time in my life, sir, but it was definitely something I'm glad I went through because I think it's made me a different person and hopefully a little bit better of a person, a little bit more aware of what's going on around me. Well, I wasn't planning to go here, but the lesson for young people listening, that must have been devastating. And I would imagine there were some very dark moments there, but the thing that always I have found is really helpful is to remember, and this played out 110 % for you in that situation, nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems. You turn chicken shit into chicken salad.
23:04And as God says, or supposedly, you know, when a window closes, a door opens. By the way, the CEO of Boeing also said that. Anyways, let's move on. Let's use that as a segue. Yeah. He's having a hard time too, but I think it's important for young people to know that there's nothing final until you decide that it's final. You got to keep going. You never know what's going to happen. That ended up being a positive for you. So I want to have a conversation around this and push back a little bit. The comparison with FDR, the primary medium in 1944 was radio, and FDR still had the same deep, crisp, fascinating oratory intellect and sharpness, which Biden does not have in a world of TV and video and clips.
23:47They're going to be running clips of him leaving the debate stage and looking really frail. I think there is a contrast in terms of what drives imagery and the respective skills of those two presidents. The path you're talking about or the positioning of Biden right now, and by the way, it might be enough, but the primary positioning of Biden is, I'm not him. That's his primary positioning right now. I'm not Trump. And I would argue, and I think a lot of Democrats would argue, and I want to get your pushback here, that it would be a wider path to bring on one of the very talented members of the bench of the Democratic Party, have a Shark Tank-like debate format.
24:26If Britain can have an election in six weeks, we can pull this off in four months. Have a debate hosted by the DNC, CNN, and Fox, eight people, then four people, then two people. It would be a media spectacle. You would raise the awareness and get the name recognition of whoever it was to 90 % pretty quickly. And if you have a young, talented governor, whether it's, and I know Whitmer would chew today, But if it's, for example, a Whitmer and Shapiro and you had two of the three swing states or you had that tall, good looking fella who's much younger, who would I think would rip Trump limb from limb on the debate stage.
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25:03I think that path is much wider to the presidency as opposed to. Tall, good looking fella is Gavin. Exactly. Governor Newsom. So I'm on the sort of, OK, folks, the party, the part I want to call them cultists, although the response to anyone questioning Joe dropping out has been pretty angry. But I would argue that if the real objective, if the cold, brutal analysis is that we just want Trump out, that the widest path to that is to rally around, not coronate, but compete our way to a new talented Democrat who would immediately, in my view, go from six points down where Biden is now, the largest margin Trump has ever enjoyed in a presidential race, including in 16.
25:49That person goes up three, four, six within two weeks after the convention. Okay, so I agree with everything that you're saying. And I would say this to you, the Democrats have historically done better with younger people. Jack Kennedy, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama. These are men that were in their 40s that they rose to the presidency as young men because they were aspirational men in a party that has progressives in it and a party that believes in progress. So to me, as an entrepreneur, I would do that, okay, over what they're going to go with. They're going to do the IBM strategy at a time when they need to be a startup like a Microsoft or a Google.
26:34But I'm telling you right now, Gavin Newsom took Ginsu Knives, it was like one of those Ginsu Knife infomercials to Ron DeSantis about six months ago. I don't know if you saw that, but they debated each other. He chopped him up. It was a chopped Ron DeSantis salad better than a Caesar salad. Okay. And the reason why is the arguments on the right now are specious and anybody, and listen, I am a right leaning person. I'm a center right person. I'm agnostic related to social issues. I'm a New York style Republican my whole life, But what I am not is a fascist and what I am not is a demolition derby expert on how to wreck a amazing country and how to create a central authority in what has been a very successful decentralized governmental structure in the country.
27:32OK, these people are loons. If you read the stuff that they write, you would have to be frightened. This is the reason why I have put out excessively the stuff on Project 2025. That is a Trump-owned project. That is a very dangerous dystopia for America. There's a lot of things in that project that are very un-American. I'm sorry, could you just explain for our listeners what exactly Project 2025 is? A group of these people at the Heritage Foundation got together and they said, OK, we're going to help Trump hit the ground running with Trumpian policies, these things that Donald Trump likes, but also things that we would like to do to this country.
28:11Okay. And this is great. I say this with great sadness because I used to be part of this party, but what I hate about what's going on now is one side wants to ram their culture and lifestyle down on the other side. And they want to judge each other and they want to crush each other in this great culture war. So Project 225 is quite dystopian. They want to roll back DEI, all the issues related to affirmative action, some of which have helped the country. They want to pull back abortion. They want to pull back contraceptive. They want to deport 15 million people. It's right there in the document.
28:47Okay, so I just want you to think about that for a second. If you're going to deport 15 million people, you're going to have handmaid's tail armored vehicles in your local neighborhood pulling people out of their homes. Okay, then what are you going to do with the people? They're not going to self-deport. so you then have to put them in deportation centers or let's call them what they would be they would be concentration camps as you're waiting to find a place to land those people you have to you have to build that type of infrastructure to deport these people so now now trump would probably hear something like that and not take it that seriously but his minions they want to do that okay they want to perpetrate that on this country you know you know i would encourage you guys and i would encourage your young people listening in to go back to some of the writings of abraham lincoln uh we were stressed out we were polarized we had a great fight over the concepts of liberty and who was free in the country and who was to be enslaved that was a very rough time in America.
29:52And if you read what Lincoln was saying about the country, it is a persistent and consistent love affair with the idea of America. The notion, what did Lincoln say? Okay. And I'm paraphrasing, but number one, there should be no permanent labor class in this country. Number two, it's an idea. It's not based on a bloodline. It's not based on historical ancestral boundaries. Number three, it's a flat system. So people can come in and live off their merit and they can scale their lives. They can move aspirationally through America. Okay. And so why I'm saying this to you, you have a group of anarcho-Christian nationalists that literally want to take over the country and impose their values on everybody.
30:47that is the most un-American thing that you can think about. Go read the Project 2025, the 925 pages. It is wrath and judgment. And I'm telling you, they will inflict a tremendous amount of harm on the country over and above. By the way, do you know why I believe in God? I don't know if you guys still believe in God, but I'm a practicing guy. Do you know why I believe in God? Why? Because Steve Bannon is one of the most articulate, most well-read people that I've ever encountered. And I had the opportunity to work with Steve on the campaign and in the White House for a short period of time. He's one of the most malevolent and dangerous people that I've ever come across in my life.
31:32But I believe God made him so motherfucking ugly to save the civilization from Steve Bannon. Okay. So when I look at Steve Bannon with the contemporary hobo look and the busted alcoholic nose, okay, I'm like, okay, God has been good to us. He saved us from Bannon. Because Bannon can articulate the Trump doctrine. Okay. I know the Trump doctrine, which is why in good conscience, I had to speak out against it. And this has been an exploitation project by a group of people that have been working on this for a very long period of time. They've got a guy who's a rapist. They've got a guy that's banging porn stars.
32:16They've got a guy on his third marriage. But they don't care because he's going to deliver them a narco-Christian nationalist to the court. He's going to wipe out through Schedule F 50 ,000 civil servants. and he's going to put the anarcho-Christian fascists in the government. And so the fact that Joe Biden cannot articulate, he can't go on television or Elson and Galloway's podcast and articulate what Trump is going to do and what he wants to do is a problem for me. Okay, now I have no problem going out there and doing it, getting the death threats and listening to all the nonsense. I have no problem doing it because I have five children.
33:01I've got to be on record that I've seen it up close and personal. Now, I am a little upset that I'm not even in the top 40 on the Trump enemy list. You know, Esper and Millie, who are buddies of mine, they're in the top 10, these two sons of bitches. And I feel like I'm doing a lot of work. I don't feel like I've cracked into the top 10. You know, I had lunch with these two guys. They're in the top five. I'm like 48. I feel like I've I feel like I'm not I feel like I feel left out I feel a little neglected by the way Still time Still time We'll be right back
33:45Tuesday on NBC Jimmy Fallon and Bozema St. John host a highly anticipated new competition show I hired 10 creatives from all walks of life they will be battling it out to see who can impress the world's biggest brands. This is a huge opportunity. This is the battle for the next big idea. This is not play-play. We're spending millions of dollars. I'm so excited to embark on this adventure with all of you. Make the best idea win! On Brand with Jimmy Fallon. Series premiere Tuesday on NBC. I'm Christian McCaffrey, pro running back, and Abercrombie is an official fashion partner of the NFL. I'm not kidding when I say NFL by Abercrombie broke the internet last year, and I think this season's lineup is even cooler.
34:27And so does my wife, who keeps stealing all my hoodies. Stay fit for the season and Abercrombie's newest arrivals. Shop NFL by Abercrombie in the app, online, and in store.
34:46When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, The secure messaging app that brings the whole group together. Use polls to settle dinner plans. Send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom's 60th. And never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end-to-end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp. Message privately with everyone. Learn more at whatsapp.com.
35:16We're back with Prof G Markets. You've made an extraordinary living raising money and you are outstanding at raising money for political candidates and give money yourself. What, it seems to me the only way, if you thought, okay, what's a path to Biden getting off the path? I would argue that all paths lead to the money drying up. What do you sense in terms of the flows out there? You know, investment, when we talk about the markets, we talk about flows. Like Latin America has just had so much outflow of capital. It doesn't matter if the companies are performing well or not. It's hard for a stock to get any traction there.
35:51What are the flows of capital into the Trump and Biden campaign the last couple of weeks, and what does it tell you? So the flows of capital have been quite good for the president. So he's done$38 million since the debate. Donald Trump got a bump from his convictions. He's outpacing Joe Biden. Now, he was behind Joe Biden, and that was good news for Joe Biden Because if you had asked me before the debate, Scott, I would have said, listen, Biden's got more money than Trump. He's the incumbent. I submit to you guys that these are people that have 50 years of exposure to American people, Biden and Trump.
36:32A result of this is going to be a get out the vote exercise. There's not a lot of undecided voters, and Biden's going to have a more robust field operation in those swing states, bringing people out of the nursing homes over to the polling booth. And so in a get-out-to-vote exercise where the Democrats have a higher number of registrants relative to the Republicans—Trump has actually shrunk the Republican Party since he started his nonsense—I would have said to you that they could win. but the convictions increased his donations. The successful debate performance by Trump has increased his donations.
37:12But on the other side, Biden has still got enough money, Scott, and he is the incumbent. And since we're talking about it as an investment, I want you to think about it like this. If I am raising money for Trump, I'm not on his enemies list. Joe Biden's not going to go after me. Okay, I'm in Silicon Valley. I'm a know-it-all guru. I'm going to raise money for Trump. I'm going to make this mistake that, frankly, I made in 2016. And he loses, no big deal to me. So think about the call option of it, right? Trump wins, great for me. Trump loses, no one's coming after me, right? Flip side, if I'm giving money to Joe Biden, he's the incumbent president.
37:54president, if he wins, and incumbents generally do win, this is a rare case because of his age and his relative infirmity, but if he wins, I'm in good shape. So these are all call options. This is all diversified portfolio management. You know, I have given to Ro Khanna, but I've also given to Dave McCormick. They're both pro crypto. I'm going with Mark Cuban and Mike Novogratz to see Ro Khanna and members of the Biden administration tomorrow in Washington to talk about how to depoliticize cryptocurrency and digital asset regulation. because Trump is now burying you guys. He's raised$50 million from the crypto bros, Scott and Ed.
38:44Okay. And Biden is getting killed by Elizabeth Warren and getting killed by, you know, the real life Jiminy Cricket, Gary Gensler. Okay. He's getting killed by those two. And so for me, what I would say is the money's there for the president. Okay. Now, if you say to me, he's staying in, is the money going to dry up? I don't believe that. I think one thing worth noting is how the markets have reacted to all of this. And we are a markets podcast, and we've been getting a little carried away with politics recently, but we're going to try to keep it on markets. Markets reacted quite well to that debate.
39:21The S &P 500 actually climbed. And just for you, as someone who's worked on Wall Street, who still works on Wall Street, and who has also worked in the White House, give us your read on the general sentiment on Wall Street right now. How are bankers and how are fund managers feeling about what appears to me to be a shit show in American politics right now? The markets like shit shows. I mean, the markets like split governments, the markets like inertia. I think the Fed has generally done a good job. The markets absorbed the pain of 2022 and the rate hikes. I think the Fed is a little behind the curve right now.
40:03I can explain to you why from the data that we look at here at SkyBridge, but I think they've got to get up the curve and start cutting rates sooner rather than later. And I'm happy to take you through that if you're interested. But I think ultimately this is still a Fed-driven market. And I think the market is perceiving now whoever wins, there will be Fed rate cuts coming by the back end of the year. but you know if you look at who's better and this is great irony but who's better for capitalism and who's better for the economy it's actually joe biden and but trump has a perception because of the apprentice and pro-business and this sort of thing that he would be better he's called he's calling for sky-high tariffs which will cripple poor people tariffs as you both know are regressive taxes on poor people.
40:53Do you think he's serious about those? So, Ed, this guy knows how to boil a frog better than anybody that I've ever met, right? You're in the cold water and he simmers the frog until the frog is dead. Do you know how many things from 2016 to today that we could say, is he serious about that? And then you say, oh, no, he's not serious about that. And he fucking does it. 100%. And you're like, holy shit, he is serious about that. And then he does it again. He'll tell you that, oh, I don't know who Project 225 is. And then he'll peel 17 items out of there and he'll make them the policies of his administration.
41:32So don't underestimate him, okay? He is serious about it if it's going to help him politically and it's going to help him achieve what he wants as it relates to his personal power. Always look at this thing through the prism of Donald Trump's personal power. This is not a public servant. He's not there to serve his fellow men and women that are fellow travelers on this planet. He's there to serve himself. He's there to serve his cronies. Classic totalitarianism. Okay. And you guys know We have 5.7 billion people living in totalitarian regimes around the world. And these regimes always go the same way.
42:17They go kleptocracy, oligarchy, cronyism, corruption. And I'm going to tell you something because I know you have a lot of young viewers. OK, we have no hereditary memory of dictatorship and authoritarianism in this country. But your country, Ed, where you come from, does. You go on field trips to see Churchill's war cabinet or you visit spots where the blitz happened in London or up in the Midlands where the bombs were dropping on the manufacturing centers. If you're in France, you go to Normandy. If you're in Germany, they take you to Auschwitz. If you're in Poland, you go to one of the concentration camps.
42:57And the Brits, the Europeans, the French, they have historical hereditary memory of the scourge of fascism. Okay. And so we have to explain this to as many people as possible because it's right there. It's right there in front of you guys. Okay. And I know these people and I know what they're capable of. So we're going to do a lightning round here. When Melania walked into the room, what was people's impressions and first thoughts about her? Likeable. She's likable down to earth. Likeable. She's always very nice to me. Really? Trump is a weirdo. Can I tell a quick story? I know we're an OT, but.
43:38Sure. Okay, so, and this happened on a Wednesday, and I know it was a Wednesday because I was only there for one Wednesday, okay, in the White House, okay? And so we were having dinner, and I was invited to the Blue Room to have dinner with the president and a few people, and my name tag was next to Melania's. And Trump walked over to me menacingly, he's a lot bigger than me, he says, what are you doing sitting next to my wife? And I'm looking at him like, I have no idea. I didn't put the name tags down. He's just like a wild, insecure, overcompensating whack job, you know? But no, I liked her.
44:18She hates him, okay? And she hates him more than you or I could hate him because she's had to live with him. That's a tough one. Okay. And, you know, she's trying to get as far away from this effing guy as possible. Whose opinion do you think Trump respects the most out of anyone in the world? Right now, Susie Wiles. And so just go read about Susie. She's Pat Summerall. Scott would remember Pat Summerall if he's a football. She's Pat Summerall's daughter, incredibly talented political strategist. She is running that campaign. She has Trump's ear. And as I said, Trump is on message and Trump is disciplined because he likes and respects her and listens to her.
45:02And she has given him very good advice. What's one thing about Trump that surprised you the most? The incredible insecurity. And I'll tell, again, I have to tell a quick story. You can't tell Trump something that he doesn't know. He gets wild with insecurity. Like if McMaster was trying to tell him the difference between a Shia and a Sunni, he would berate McMaster and bully him with the implication that he already knows that he doesn't need to know that. Sounds like you, Scott. Well, you know, he's a whack job when it comes to that sort of stuff. You know, I remember he didn't know what the Sykes-Picot Treaty was, right?
45:38You know, the treaty that divvied up the Middle East. And so I had to say to him, hey, do you remember the movie Lawrence of Arabia? He said, oh, yeah, Peter O'Toole, that was a great movie. I said, well, do you remember what it was about? And then you have to tell Trump a story. And then all of a sudden you weave in the Sykes-Picot Treaty because that was a big part of the plot. And now you've told Trump something without him feeling insecure that he didn't know it. What Republican or Democrat was Trump most scared of and genuinely personally dislike or like the most? Okay, so the number one Democrat that Trump was most scared of was Joe Biden, which is why he went to Zelensky and said, I'm going to hold back the$400 million in anti-tank missiles.
46:29But I want you to bring up corruption related to Joe Biden. He has great political instincts. He knew Joe Biden would be his strongest adversary. and in the middle of his presidency, he went to Zelensky and said, dig up some bad shit about Joe Biden and I won't hold up these arms coming to you. Today, by far, the number one person is Gavin Newsom. If you put Gavin Newsom up against Donald Trump, Donald Trump's sphincter, he'd be constipated for about a week, his sphincter would close. Why? Because Newsom is good looking. Newsom is articulate. Newsom is well-versed in policy. You may not like every part of his policy decisions, and there's a lot of things going wrong, as Scott pointed out, in California, but Newsom can slay Trump, and Trump is a very image-conscious person, and the imagery of this good-looking Californian who's 25 years younger than Trump on stage, okay, would be very powerful, would really bother Trump, OK, so those are the people he's worried about.
47:40The people that he dislikes, he disliked nobody more than John McCain. OK, and I tried to get him on the Saturday that I joined the administration. It was July 22nd. I tried to get Trump. We had to fly somewhere for an event. and I tried to get Trump to take Air Force One to Arizona and stop in and see McCain at his home where he was ailing from brain cancer because I knew McCain was going to be the deciding vote on the Obamacare legislation and I knew Trump needed that vote. But Trump was maniacal with the hatred of John McCain. Why? A war hero, a veteran, a patriot, all the things that Trump is incapable of, he absolutely despised john mccain okay those are really good questions okay let's keep going can you tell us the story of donating to barack obama and your interaction with him i heard you say that on the rest of politics u.s it's so good oh yeah so so so obama obama was very close friends with several of my classmates um when he spoke at the 2004 uh keynote address in boston one of my buddies called me, hey, do you remember that guy?
48:53We used to play basketball with him. He's running for the Senate in Illinois. I did not remember the guy. Okay. And I said, no, I don't remember the guy. Oh yeah. Barack Obama. I said, I don't remember the guy. And then he won the Senate. He came to New York at the university club. Two of my buddies that I went to law school with, they were close to him. He's running for president. Again, I was 44 at the time, 16 years ago. he said go up to the university club with less and write the son of a bitch a check i said okay no problem i brought a check i put it in my my my code ed i walked over to obama and i said senator i said you and i didn't know each other in law school but i'm about to write you a big check i want to lie to all my friends and tell them that you and i were close in law school and i want to drop your name everywhere and he looked at me with that smile again the best smile in american of policies, Jack Kennedy.
49:47He said, I'll tell you what, if you double the amount of the check, we could take it all the way back to Hawaii. Where were you in high school together? And I like telling that story because it's the wittiness of Obama. It's the rock star capability. Again, you can like or dislike his policies, but he was a gamer. He was a guy like a Michael Jordan that could hit the shot when he needed to hit a shot. And I took the check out. I ripped it up. and I wrote him a new check. I doubled the amount of it, and I handed it to him, okay? And he loved it. And I went to more Barack Obama Christmas parties at the White House than Donald Trump Christmas parties.
50:26That's the irony of that, right? But the point of the story is they are human beings, and the American people, whether you like this or not, this is a popularity contest. This is not a hiring decision for the Americans. This is a popularity contest, okay? And unfortunately in America, they take the strong over the weak and they'll take a strong liar over weak competency. Okay. They will just do it. And this is another reason why I would take the risk and I would be bold here as an entrepreneur and swap out Joe Biden for somebody like Gavin Newsom or somebody like that. So just as we wrap up here, I want to just go off script.
51:11I didn't realize you had five children. How old are your kids, Anthony? Yeah. So my oldest is 32. Uh, I have a 28 year old, 24. I got remarried 10 years ago, Scott. And so I have a, I have a 10 and a seven year old and my 10 year old's gotten, gotten onto it. He's like, dad, so you and mom were married in July, but I was born in April. So I'm going to religious instruction. I'm going, I'm going to Catholic school. So can you explain that to me? Yeah. Well, the same thing happened to me. And when my son, when my son asked the same question, And I said, well, there's a reason we call you bastard.
51:44Anyways, you've been through a lot. You're hugely successful. You've had a really interesting career. You've had, you have five kids. We have a lot of young men, a lot of young fathers who listen to the program. I would love to hear your, what advice you would have for them. And having had one generation of kids and then locking and loading again, what advice would you have? What learnings can you, can you pass on? You have to expose your kids to your true self. Because if you do that and they see your vulnerability, Scott, you've now created space for their vulnerability. So, you know, you could find my balance sheet on, you know, the S86 that I had to fill out to join the White House.
52:33And I'm not the richest, but I'm certainly not the poorest. But I could have concocted this story for my kids, blue collar, Tufts, Harvard Law School, Goldman Sachs, two successful hedge funds, bestselling author. I could give them this big bullshit story or I could expose them to all the warts, all the insecurity, all the trials and tribulations, the firings, all the different things. And I have found in my life that the realer that you are with your kids, the more space you're giving them to live their destiny of what they want. So I don't tell my kids, I want you to go to Wall Street, or I want you to do this, or I want you to be a nurse.
53:21I tell my kids that life is precious and short, and in the immortal words of Mel Brooks, relax. None of us are getting out of here alive. Okay. And so you're here. We've got the gift that we've made a little bit of money. I want you to be aspirational in your lives. And if you fail at something, as long as not health related, come see me because I'll make you feel better. Okay. And I'll say this to your podcast listeners. If you've ever failed at something, think of my ass on the 31st of July, blown out of the front door of the White House into Pennsylvania Avenue, skinned alive by the media, and then rolled in margarita salt by late night comedians.
54:02You know, Bill Maher, I see Scott on Bill Maher all the time, okay? Bill Maher roasted me. He put an apple in my mouth and he roasted me on a spigot, okay? And my PR people said, don't go on the Bill Maher show. I've been on the show five times. You're great. He loves you. Yeah. And I've taken Bill to the Met game. We've hung out at the Met game together. You know, my point is go towards the shit. Don't go away from it. And if you do that with your kids, and Scott, I'll tell you the story. It's August 3rd. I'm fired from the White House. I'm walking on the promenade in Santa Monica. And my 25-year-old son puts his arm around me and says, hey, dad, are you going to be okay?
54:44I said, what do you mean? He said, oh, this is a disaster. I mean, how are you going to recover from this? And so it was the first time in my life I was actually getting parented by my kid. And I looked at him, I said, you know what? It's really not a disaster. I don't have cancer, thank God. And watch what I do with this, AJ. Watch what I do with this. Okay, and I think that's the message of parenting. Let the kid have space for failure. Scott, how many billionaires you know, They write the perfect story up and to the right. Everything in their life went well and everything's perfect about their lives.
55:21And the kids are suffering from that. They can't live up to that. Does that make sense? It does make sense. Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm. Anthony previously served as the White House Director of Communications for the Trump administration. You can find him on two podcasts. One is titled The Rest is Politics and the other is called Open Book. It's so rare that one of our podcasts meets our expectations, and this one did. We really enjoyed this conversation, Anthony. Yeah, real pleasure. You're great. You really are.
55:51You've really kind of like, I don't know if you planned this, but you're sort of the accidental, authentic elder statesman that bridges, kind of bridges both parties. Definitely not planned, sir. I can tell you that. No, it's working. All right. Well, God bless, guys. Let's get together. Thank you so much for including me. Thanks so much, Anthony. Thanks, Anthony. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our executive producers are Jason Stavis and Catherine Dillon. Mia Silverio is our research lead. And Drew Burrows is our technical director.
56:23Thank you for listening to Property Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We'll be back with a fresh take on markets on Monday.
56:38You help me in kind reunion As the world turns And the dark flies In love, love, love, love
From the publisher
Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, joins the show to break down the fascism of Project 2025 and how a second term for Trump could become a totalitarian regime. He discusses why he thinks voters need to support Biden if he’s the Democratic candidate, but reveals who he thinks would have the greatest chance of beating Trump. He also shares some personal stories about what it was like to serve as the Communications Director in the Trump White House.
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