Red Flags at OpenAI — How One Company Could Burst the AI Bubble

27:45By the way, since then, up three or five fold. NVIDIA in 2022 lost 58 % of its value. It was a chip cycle downturn, crypto mining bust, export controls to China. It rebounded massively the following year as the AI boom took off. Netflix, just three years ago, just three years ago, Netflix saw a drawdown, a destruction in the value of its shares of 70 % in the 12-month period, Subscriber loss for the first time in a decade, growth to value rating, growth to value re-rating, and rate hikes. What is every amazing company in the midst of a technology boom that has done incredibly well, the best performing long-term holds?

28:29What do they all have in common? In a 12-month period, they were down at some point between 50 % and 70%. But the problem is, if these guys go down 50 % to 70%, if they follow the cycle of every other tech company in history that has reached these types of valuations, and they come down 50 % to 70 % in a 12-month period, hold on tight, says the global economy. Because it's no longer a company worth, you know, Netflix at the time was worth probably$100 billion going to, or$150 billion going to$50 billion. It's a company worth$5 trillion going to$2 trillion. It's a$3 trillion destruction in value.

29:12They're going to lose the GDP of Germany, one company. That will send a chill across another dangerous concentration in our economy, and that is the consumer confidence of the top 10 % who are now responsible for 50 % of consumer spending. And I go, I don't feel as rich as I used to. I can take my spending down, my discretionary spending down 50 or 80%. You can't, Ed. You're spending the majority of your income on rent and trying to do a little investing and living in the cost of living in Manhattan. You could take it down 10 or 20%. You can't take it down 70 or 80. So what do we have? At some point, these companies are going to experience this type of drawdown, except it is now so much more.

29:57This isn't the ripple effect of a stone. This is the ripple effect of the Millennium Falcon or a Starship cruiser crashing into a lake. Starship, I think that's a Star Wars reference. Are they called Starship cruisers yet? I think that's right. My ability or my desire to short some, even if it's a little amount, I just want mental health insurance because what I see here, and by the way, these companies could double in the next 12 of months. I don't know. But if these companies get whacked and go through the same cycle as every other great technology company, the impact it's going to have on everything is going to be much more dramatic.

30:35There's going to be no P &G is going to be off 20%. I mean, everybody, there's going to be nowhere to hide. I would also add, though, that the difference between a company seeing like a 50 to 60 % drawdown versus a 99 % drawdown and going out of business, the difference between those two companies is always leverage. It's which company was financially managed such that they were able to withstand a downturn. And this is exactly what Andrew Ross Sorkin talks about when we had him on and he talked about what went wrong in 1929. The companies that go bankrupt that just get completely wiped out, it's always leverage.

31:14I mean, Evergrande, which I just used as an example, great example of that. The most indebted company in the world,$300 billion in liabilities, lost 99 % of its market value. Lehman Brothers is another good example. I mean, some banks made it out alive, but Lehman Brothers was so overly leveraged, 30 to 1 at some points. And so when they started to see the defaults on the CDOs and all the mortgage-backed securities, they were insolvent. They couldn't pay back their creditors. And then it started the chain reaction. And again, this was too much debt, too much leverage, and long-term financial mismanagement.

31:53So I think for sure every company is going to be susceptible to a downturn. But I think the question when that happens is which of these companies are being responsible about the amount of debt that they're taking on? Which of them are making accurate and responsible projections about how they can cover their losses in the future if there is a downturn, if there is a drop-off in demand. I think you look at many of the big tech companies. I think you look at NVIDIA and Meta and Microsoft and Google and Amazon. These companies are expertly managed from a balance sheet perspective. So yes, they might see some drawdowns, but they're not going to get wiped out.

32:33I mean, these companies, they have incredible technology teams, but also incredible financial teams. OpenAI is a fucking train wreck from a financial management perspective. It is. Ed's going gangster. Why would you say it's a train wreck? Look at the numbers. They want to spend$1.4 trillion. They've got$13 billion in revenue. How much of that, though, do you think is just marketing? It probably is, but the market is pricing off of it. The market is pricing in a$300 billion contract to Oracle. So even if it's just marketing, the market believes it isn't. The market believes it's real. And Sam Altman is going around and saying it's real.

33:13I don't know if you saw the Financial Times report, but the Financial Times learned that they're not even seeking legal counsel on these deals. They're having their head of product lead these deals with AMD and NVIDIA. They're having Greg Brockman figure out the paperwork. They don't have a financial team. And then, of course, they brought in Sarah Fryer, the CFO. She said, in order for this to work, we're going to need a backstop from the government. That is like all of the red flags of a company that is not figuring out how to manage their balance sheet in a responsible and reasonable manner.

33:51I mean, this is the biggest red flag in AI by far. And that says nothing about the technology, says nothing about the product, which is amazing and which I use and everyone uses. But the question being like, who gets wiped out in a downturn? It's the companies that are over leveraged. And OpenAI is that company. I wonder how much of it, quite frankly, is trying to this fake signal and manifest success that the market will believe that if this guy is willing to sign a contract for 300 billion, I'd love to see the terms and conditions of this contract. Please. Well, exactly. You got to think, I wouldn't be surprised if Oracle and OpenAI said this is more like Trump's favorite word, a framework.

34:34It's a framework. And that if, quote unquote, they don't need it, they have a little bit opt out, they got to give them notice. I think that agreement is basically, they said, I know, let's announce that you're buying$300 billion with an Oracle compute. It'll send my stock up. It'll increase my net worth by$93 billion. It'll signal to the market that you as someone who has insight into your revenue growth and the subsequent demand it inspires. The more I listen to you, Ed, quite frankly, I think you're right. I think this is the mother of all fucking jazz hands, these agreements. And this week was our proof.

35:12I mean, he was offered the opportunity to correct that. And he bailed. He freaked out. He said, sell our stock then. And then he left the room. When Trump comes back from a meeting with Xi and says, OK, they've agreed to continue to ship rare earth materials or delay the suspension of rare earth mineral exports by a year. And he comes back, which means it's still they're still like pointing out at us with a gun cocked. Basically, he comes back and he says, oh, it's him and Bessent go on all those shows. An amazing agreement, historic leadership. And the reality is he didn't get Dick. Basically, she knows he's, she's like, look, this is bad for us.

35:55But what we have that you don't have is I can starve tens of millions of people and I'm still going to be in power. If fucking NVIDIA gets cut in half, you're going to have real trouble. You're going to lose Congress, right? And probably your, you know, Vance or Rubio or whoever you anoint is going to lose. So he again his big error was she i'm getting off script here was not understanding their willingness to sacrifice But i i'm kind of with you as we kind of on I don't know unfold all of this stuff It does appear like there's a lot A lot of jazz hands going on But it was funny is what happened with trump is that the markets originally priced everything in and then the taco, the tacofication came in and then they said, screw it.

36:45We're not going to price this anymore because we don't believe it. The question is, when does that happen with AI? When does the tacofication of AI happen where you start seeing these press releases and these handshake deals? We're going to spend a hundred billion dollars on AI. At what point does the market just go, you know what, dude, we don't really, we don't really buy it. So far, not happening at all. You could announce a multi-billion dollar contract with a hyperscaler tomorrow and the stock will go up invariably at least 5%. That's just how it works right now. But the question is, when does that run out?

37:17What is going to be the moment? I'll tell you my prediction, then let's move on because we have more to get into. But if the bubble pops, my prediction is the reason it will pop is because of an implosion at OpenAI. It was because they said they were going to spend $1.5 trillion. They made all these commitments. They borrowed money. They haven't borrowed that much yet, but they will. And that will be their downfall, as it has been for many companies throughout history. We'll be right back after the break. And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend and please give us a follow if you haven't already.

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41:34We're back with Prof G Markets. The Supreme Court heard arguments in the tariff case last week. Multiple justices expressed deep skepticism that a 1970s emergency powers law gives the president sweeping authority to impose tariffs. Here's just some of what they said. It's a congressional power, not a presidential power to tax. And you want to say tariffs are not taxes, but that's exactly what they are. They're generating money from American citizens. Revenue. AIPA is a sanctioned statute. It's not a tax statute where Congress gave away the store. Congress knows exactly how to delegate its tariff powers every time for 238 years.

42:13It's done so explicitly, always with real limits. IEPA looks nothing like those laws. It uses regulate, which Congress has used hundreds of times, never once to include tariffs, and it lacks the limits of every other tariff statute. You're admitting that there is some non-delegation principle at play here, and there are four major questions as well. It's so very limited, very, very deferential. And again, the phrase that Justice Jackson uses, it just does not apply. I know, but that's where you started off, and now you've retreated from that, as I understand it. Well, I think we would, as our frontline position, a stronger position, but if the court doesn't accept it, then if there is a highly detrimental person...

42:52Can you give me a reason to accept it, though? That's what I'm struggling and waiting for. What's the reason to accept the notion that Congress can hand off the power to declare war to the president? Well, we don't content that. Again, that would be... Well, you do. You say it's unreviewable. There's no manageable standard, nothing to be done. And now you're, I think you, tell me if I'm wrong, you backed off that position. Maybe that's fair to say. So it wasn't a great showing for Trump's legal team. And we know that because by the end of the week, markets were pricing just a 23 % chance of the court ruling in his favor.

43:26Before the hearing, it was closer to 45%. This is per prediction markets. So just to kind of like go over the arguments that are being made here, basically, generally, it's agreed that you need Congress to approve major policy, economic policy decisions. But the government is saying that doesn't apply to foreign affairs. It's a foreign issue. The plaintiffs are saying, no, it is a domestic issue because, as Sotomayor was saying there, tariffs are a tax on U.S. citizens. There are some other arguments at play here, but the summary here, the TLDR is, didn't go great for Trump and for Trump's legal team.

44:06And then if you just look at the prediction markets on Kalshi, the chances that SCOTUS will rule in favor of Trump, they have gone from 45 % to now 23%. In a weird way, we talked about on this pivot, and Kershvi was this actually would be good for Trump. It would give him an elegant way out of this mess. That it would basically do, well, the Supreme Court, I don't agree with them, but basically unwind what is probably the worst economic decision in a long, long time. Well, let me just say what I'm doing. You're not buying the refund claims, are you? I feel shamed. No, no, no, because that's an amazing investment trade.

44:40I was going to bring that up. Is that what you're doing? That's what I'm trying to do. A market is developing in the private markets to purchase claims. So if you're Mercedes of Wisconsin and you're importing or made Mercedes USA, say they do a$2.5 billion business in Mercedes, I don't know what it is, in the US. So they're importing in, and some of them are domestically made, so maybe that's not the right analogy, but you get the point. If it's 15 % and they're bringing in$200 million of Mercedes a month from Germany, they're paying a$30 million tariff. If this court case ends up going against Trump, then essentially the Trump administration is going to owe Mercedes of USA$30 million a month, or say the tariffs have been a...

45:24When did Liberation Day happen? I forgot. April 2nd. Okay, so they call it six months of tariffs. Then the government owes Mercedes USA$120 million. That's the important thing here. If Trump loses, not only does he have to revoke the tariffs, he actually has to return the tariff revenue that he brought in. He's going to have to issue refunds to all the people who paid the tariffs. Well, there's some question here. And that is, it's not immediately A equals B, even if they rule against them. that there could be nuance where maybe the government doesn't have to pay it back. Maybe the government, and we've seen Trump do this, refuses to pay it back.

46:00So even if the case is ruled against him, we don't know the nuance of the remedy. It might be you can't continue to do this, right? Or they might say, all right, they have a legal claim, and then the individual companies have to sue the government, which, I mean, anyways, it's not immediately a fait accompli, I think, if in fact, I've been thinking a lot about this, trying to game theory it out, But there's a private market developing. But unfortunately, you have to, right now, it looks at least the stuff I've seen that I've been shown. You have to invest at least$10 million. So you have to put together an SPV if you don't have the$10 million yourself.

46:37And these claims are trading in the private market for anywhere from 5 % to 30%. And I think the greater likelihood is somehow these people don't get their money back. But I think there's a greater than one in 10 chance they get their money back. So if I can pick these things up, these claims against the Trump administration for tariffs that were charged illegally based on the Supreme Court decision, if that in fact, if they deem them as illegal, that I think there's a greater, at this point, one in 10 chance that this claim will be refunded. It might take a couple of years. It might take two or three years in court.

47:23But I like the asymmetric upside here. And very similar to the FTX claims that you made a killing on back in the day. But just to sort of explain how this is working here. So if you're a company and let's say you owe a dollar in, or you paid a dollar in tariff revenue. Now there's a question of, do you have a claim now to receive a dollar back? And what Scott is going and doing is he's buying that claim from you for five cents, or that's the plan. There is a market right now where people say, I don't think I'm going to get my money back. I want a little bit of money right now. So I'll sell you the claim for five cents.

48:01And so I think it's an incredible arbitrage opportunity, but I was going to bring this up to you. I was going to say, maybe you should look at this. You took the was out of my mouth. You're already all looking at it. And I like these deals because they're hard. And that is, so it's unlikely would be a claim. It's unlikely Mercedes USA would sell the claim. What's a more likely seller is a chain of 14 hardware stores in the Southeast has been paying, you know, over the last six months has paid$7 million in tariffs. And if you show up and say, I'll give you a million dollars for these claims, they're like, fuck it.

48:37Yeah, fine. Give me the million bucks. I need to operate my business. And I've already paid the money and I've already sort of incorporated into my cost of my business. This guy's going to give us a million bucks. And yeah, good luck to you trying to get that money back. So my guess is though, since the SCOTUS ruling and quite frankly, after this podcast, you're going to see, you're going to see, this is the kind of thing that a diameter capital or an Apollo come in with a team of 12 analysts and MBA interns. and they just crawl all over the U.S. trying to find these claims and make really big bets.

49:12So I'm wondering, I'm trying to figure out if I can connect with a fund that's already doing this and call them and say, hey, remember me? I advised you on the Yahoo deal. I was your keynote speaker in 2014. Remember when I was talking about happiness and how relationships are everything back in 2019? Remember me at your conference you held in August in Tucson? Wow, that was great. No, I think it's an amazing trade. As Scott Goodwin, Diameter Guy, said on the podcast, the whole game is finding forced sellers. And to your point, there are a lot of small companies, small to medium-sized companies that have been put under so much pressure because of the tariffs.

49:56I mean, you look at the difference in the way that the small caps are returning right now versus the large and mega caps in the stock market. Tariffs have fucked one group in particular, and it's small and medium-sized businesses who are going to need some liquidity soon. So the idea that they would, I mean, I'm sure there is a market where these smaller companies are down to sell these claims for cents on the dollar. So I think it's a great trade. We'll be right back. And for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com slash subscribe.

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51:50Hi, this is Bella Freud. Each week on Fashion Neurosis, I invite guests from the world of fashion, art, sport, music and literature to lie on my couch and explore the connection between fashion and identity. This week on the show, I welcome the presenter and model, Alexa Chung. To me, it's now funny to dress in a more kind of kinky way because I think I'm more associated with like dungarees and smock tops and a slightly more sexist, tomboyish vibe. Find Fashion Neurosis on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. A few years ago, this researcher was trying to get people to relax by sitting in a silent room for 15 minutes.

52:37But they hated it. People would rather listen to sounds of people vomiting, nails on a chalkboard, etc., rather than simply sit in silence. I got obsessed with this experiment. So I decided to make a whole series for Unexplainable about the way our brain processes sound. Like tinnitus. It's like you're just trapped. There's nothing else to do. Like, no way to escape it. Or what audio illusions show us about how hearing works. It just seemed that the world had just turned upside down. Or how astronomers are making new discoveries by listening to space. I thought those sounds were bothersome. And at that moment, everything transformed into beauty.

53:21The Sound Barrier from Unexplainable, a four-part series about the limits of hearing and the ways we can break through. Follow Unexplainable for new episodes every Monday and Wednesday.

53:38We're back with Prof G Markets. Robinhood posted earnings that topped expectations after doubling revenue year over year. The stock is one of the best performers in the S &P this year. It has soared 450 % since Trump's election. A key driver of that momentum is prediction markets. Events, contracts traded on Robinhood more than doubled quarter over quarter to$2.3 billion as election speculation pushed volumes to all-time highs. Kalshi and Polymarket also saw record volumes in the past month, surpassing the presidential election of last year. And now Truth Social, Trump's social media company, is rolling out its own crypto-based predictions platform.

54:20So, Scott, we've been talking about the gambling economy. You talked about it with Kylo Scanlon, all of these trading apps, these platforms which facilitate gambling betting. You've got Robinhood. And yes, people are investing properly on Robinhood. But also, there's a ton of options trading, a ton of crypto trading. As we discussed, events, contracts trading, people betting on prediction markets. That stock is up 230 % this year. Coinbase stock is up 50 % in the past six months. Calci's trading volumes are up 150x since last year. There has been an explosion in what we would call the casino economy over the past few months, and much of it is certainly to do with Trump and his sort of pro-casino economy policies.

55:06I just want to get your reactions here. What do you make of the proliferation of this market? Crypto plus prediction markets, sports betting, options trading, all of this stuff that is exploding right now. I just think it's out of control. And now the problem is I don't think you're going to vantilize a 22-year-old. I think they get to make decisions, including stupid decisions, but I think they need to be educated about the risks they're taking. So gambling has the highest suicide rate of all addictions because most people, Ed, if you developed a meth addiction, we'd figure it out and we would try and move in.

55:39You could get on your phone and get addicted to gambling and lose everything. You know, a guy spends his kid's college fund, mortgages his house. Nobody has any idea and he decides, okay, I'm in too deep. Highest addiction rate. yet there's no dedicated federal budget for gambling addiction treatment or research. By comparison, the National Institute for Drug Abuse allocated$1.6 billion for drug addiction research, and the CDC allocates about$310 million to tobacco control. And because there's so much money in this, it runs unregulated. Personal bankruptcy filings increase by 28 % in states where sports betting gets legalized.

56:18So basically, bankruptcy surged by almost a third the moment you legalize gambling. It also disproportionately affects young men and low-income people. Approximately 15 % of U.S. adults age 18 to 34 have problematic gambling behaviors compared to only 2 % of people age 55 plus. 20 % of male gamblers have a gambling problem compared to just 8 % of the female gamblers against the above immature prefrontal cortex. Households with lower savings balances spend 32 % more in gambling as a share of their income than a high-savings households looking for a way out. But it's increasingly difficult to regulate this because we no longer call it gambling.

56:59It's been rebranded as a prediction market. And these are casinos. They're more interesting. They might feel more substantive to bet on the outcome of the mayoral race. But be clear, folks, this is gambling. According to Cal Street, prediction markets are not gambling, but a form of financial market exchange. Yeah, fuck you. We're not that stupid. This is gambling. Whether you're gambling on the Jets or on Donnie, it's gambling. So the most profitable companies in the world all do the same thing. They tap into an instinctual flaw and they start monetizing this flaw despite the impact it has on consumers, whether it's tobacco companies, getting people addicted to tobacco and then spending a ton of money to try and argue that nicotine wasn't addictive.

57:40And then when our mothers and our sisters continued to die. We finally figured this shit out. The same thing is happening here. And the thing that got me initially kind of inspired is the wrong word, but very interested in this is Alex Kearns. And that is this young man, a 19 year old, I think it was a sophomore at Oklahoma State. Nice kid, no history of mental illness, good family. You see this kid and you just see your son. I don't care who you are. You see your kid and you see like, okay, there by the grace of God go my kids, bought options on Robinhood, got messages saying he was down$60 ,000.

58:17He wasn't. They were errant messages, spent all night, sleepless, emailing Robinhood to try and get some sort of response from customer service because they're in the business of hyperscaling, and because they didn't place any sort of regulation or any sort of safeguards, they didn't get back to the kid. And the kid leaves a note for his parents saying, I don't want to leave this debt for you, and throws himself in front of a train. These are the people we want to trust with an addiction. So we have Trump, the crime family Trump, and we have the mendacious Fox at Robin Hood deploying at scale using technology a drug that is highly addictive.

59:03so i'm i'm horrified by this shit and i think it i think if congress had any stones or anyone under the age of 90 fucking five years old that actually understood what is going on with young people and especially young men here they would do their goddamn jobs and prevent a tragedy of the commons and weigh in with legislation or at least age gate shit so this is i think this is hugely distressing. I think this is the next major opioid scandal. I mean, gambling is pretty bad for society. I mean, it's pretty indisputable. I mean, it consistently leads to financial ruin, as you've said, one of the most common causes of bankruptcy.

59:46As you said, in states where sports betting is legalized, bankruptcy filings have risen 28 percent. Disproportionately affects poor people, disproportionately affects young men. One of the most predictive causes of domestic violence, also one of the most common causes of suicide. But we kind of like it because it's fun. Now, I think one of the big questions is like, what counts as gambling? Clearly, we agree mostly that there should be some form of regulation, or at the very least, we should like draw some line in the sand as to what is gambling and what isn't. I had the founder and CEO of Calci on first-time founders.

1:00:26And we talked about this for a long time. And he has a very interesting perspective. Of course, he's biased because he runs Kaoshi. His view is it's gambling when the house is involved. And Kaoshi isn't really gambling because you're not betting against the house. You're betting against other people in the system. You're matching traders up with other traders, similar to the way the stock market works. But I think my view on gambling is, you know it's gambling when you see it. I mean, day trading, options trading, especially very short term, like zero day options trading, sports betting, crypto trading, meme stocks, meme coins, prediction markets, all of this stuff is gambling.

1:01:08It's gambling in one sense or another. And we can talk about the very specifics of how actually the transaction works. But when you're just kind of betting on something happening or something going one way or the other versus investing over the long term, putting your money and letting it sit there and building an asset base. Those are just by nature very, very different things. And I think it is clear that people are interested and very excited by the gambling stuff right now. Many reasons why that could be. I'm sure the fact that young people just don't have the economic prospects that their parents and grandparents did, That certainly plays into it in large part.

1:01:46That sort of explains the crypto obsession and the meme stock obsession. But I think the thing that is so interesting and what has changed this year is now the government is behind it. There is a very obvious support system for all of these types of gambling platforms and gambling mechanisms. I mean, Don Jr. is an advisor to Calci and to Polymarket. Trump Media is launching their own prediction market. Trump is getting into crypto. He's pardoning Changpeng Zhao, who pled guilty, or Binance, his company, pled guilty to money laundering. He's pardoning Justin Sun. He's launching his meme coins. So the government and the administration is deciding for one reason or another that we like this stuff and we should have more of it.

1:02:39We should deregulate and defund the CFTC. We should deregulate and defund the SEC. We should invest in prediction markets. We should create our own prediction markets. We should have society gamble more. And I think the big question for us citizens is, why do they want that? I mean, most people are in agreement that this stuff is dangerous. And many Americans say it's flat out a problem. Actually, 43 % of Americans say that sports betting should not, or they say that the fact that sports betting is legal, they say that it's bad for society. And it's gone up and up and up in recent years. So we're all kind of in agreement, like, this is at the very least kind of dangerous.

1:03:20And yet, the administration is pushing it. I guess my question to you, why do you think that Trump and the administration has decided pro-gambling, pro-casino economy, pro-prediction markets, pro-crypto, pro-meme coins, all of these things that, while yes, they can be kind of fun every now and then, in a lot of cases, they lead to the financial ruin of thousands, in some cases millions. Well, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that perhaps his own economic enrichment supersedes his concern for the public. I know that's a stretch, but look, we know why he's doing it. He's doing it for money.

1:04:05And what I would say to young men is that sacrificing and investing is a means of having less anxiety and more relationships in your life. more healthy relationships. Gambling is going to reduce your mental well-being. It's going to make you be seen as undependable by friends and potential mates. And it's going to result in a level of self-loathing, if you're not careful, that oftentimes leads to extreme depression and even self-harm. In some, if you're listening to Andrew Huberman and Peter Atia and taking the right supplements of creatine and getting the right sleep, it's all for fucking not.

1:04:53If you wake up one day and you're broke because of really stupid decisions you made in search of DOPA and have convinced yourself that you're investing, not gambling. No, you're gambling. And I'm not going to infantilize. If you want to gamble, gamble, but call it what it is and assume you're going to lose it all. You want to do these things, you need to assume you're going to lose it all. The danger is when you think this is investing and you're going to make money. You're not. These companies aren't building anything. The reason they're worth so much money is that over time, everybody loses.

1:05:27Everybody. No one beats this market, these markets over the long term. Unless you're on the platform. There you go. Those are the winners. So if you're going to gamble, buy Calci or probably market stock. You could argue that's investing even. But these companies are preying on young people and instinct that hasn't caught up to industrial production. So anyways, just be honest with yourself. Are you gambling or are you investing? There's this quote from Alexander Hamilton, 1792, which I love. He said, quote, there should be a line of separation between respectable stockholders and mere unprincipled gamblers.

1:06:10I just find it hilarious that this has been around for hundreds of years, and we know where Alexander Hamilton stands on it. Let's take a look at the week ahead, Scott. we'll see earnings from rocket lab ast space mobile so these are these uh space companies that we've discussed in the past also paramount skydance and disney any predictions well i already said it i think the the market for claims against uh tariffs paid is going to become an active investment market and i think it's going to do well for those the price may already i mean i get the sense i've been working on this for a few weeks i get the sense my guys are going to call me back and say, oh, prices have doubled.

1:06:50Sellers have caught onto this and have jacked up their prices. But I think this is going to become a really interesting market that we're going to hear about that's going to be actively traded. And I actually think that even if before the decision, I think there's going to be a lot of people who trade. I think these things are going to go up even before the decision or the collection of revenues. I think they're going to start to trade up. So I think the best stock right now or the best investment, and granted, most people don't have access to it because there's certain minimums and it takes time.

1:07:1810 million minimum. Put me in the SPV. Yeah, but this is what will happen. A bunch of people will create SPVs and charge fees and give access to retail investors. You're about to see claims against tariffs become an active private asset class. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineer by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silverio is our research lead. Our research associates are Isabella Kinsel, Dan Chalon, and Chris Nodonoghue. Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media.

1:07:50Tune in tomorrow for a fresh take on markets.

1:08:19And the dark flies In love