Retail Sales Rise on Strength of the Rich & Senate Confirms Stephen Miran to the Fed

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1:29Today's number? 23. That's how old Isaac Newton was when he discovered the law of gravity. In just a few years, he also invented calculus, as well as the world's first reflecting telescope. However, he never co-hosted a podcast. Money market's mad. If money is evil, then that building is hell. The show goes on! The folks in there have watched the show, show! Welcome to Profit View Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is September 17th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. All three major indices declined marginally from their highs as traders waited for the Fed's interest rate decision due this afternoon.

2:13Treasury yields were also muted ahead of the announcement. Meanwhile, the dollar hit its lowest level since July and gold notched yet another record. And finally, Oracle shares jumped as much as 6 % on reports that US TikTok operations will be under the control of Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz. Oracle will also reportedly keep its current cloud contracts with TikTok. Late in the day, President Trump signed an executive order to delay the deadline for the TikTok ban yet again until December 16th. Okay, what else is happening? Retail sales data came in for August, and it was hotter than expected.

2:52Data from the Commerce Department showed sales rose 0.6 % from July. That is double what economists forecasted. As expected, the reaction across most media outlets was one of optimism. CNN said, against the odds, Americans are still spending. Axios, quote, retail sales surprise as Americans increase spending in August. Quote, consumers continue to open their wallets despite rocky labor market conditions. We also saw a lot of celebrating on social media too. However, there was another piece of data that came out yesterday, which should probably change your conclusions. This data came from our friend Mark Zandy of Moody's Analytics, who found that as of this quarter, the top 10 % of earners in America now account for 49.2 % of all consumer spending.

3:43That is the highest number in history. You compare it to 30 years ago when the top 10 % accounted for roughly a third of consumer spending. Put another way, this retail data might look good. You might think the American consumer is doing well. They're spending their money until you realize it's actually not Americans that are spending, but rich Americans that are spending. Whatever growth we saw in retail last month is basically just the top 10 % of America doing all the heavy lifting. It's rich people that are creating these encouraging numbers. And of course, that isn't very encouraging at all.

4:21So here to unpack this new data, we are bringing on the guy who dug in and analyzed the data, the one and only Mark Zandy. Mark, thank you for joining us again on Prof G Markets. Yeah, anytime, Nick. Good to be on. So I want to get into this analysis. We saw this retail sales data which just came out, which gives you this image that the consumer is doing well in America. We're spending money more than we were last week. But then you also have this analysis which shows that half of the spending is the top 10 % of Americans. And that's the highest share ever. So just your initial reactions to that data that you found, what does it tell us about the U.S.

5:09economy right now? Yeah, the American economy is very dependent on the well-to-do. The folks that have a high income, high net worth, they're driving the train, more so than I think anyone would have thought. So the folks in the top 10 % of the income distribution. So you're making well over a quarter million dollars a year. They account for almost half of all the spending. It's even more top-heavy than that. If you look at the folks that are in the top 3.3 % of the income distribution, don't ask me why we picked that cutoff, but we did. They account for about 25 % of the spending. So the American economy is moving forward.

5:51It's not in recession, but obviously it's the folks at the tippity-top of the income distribution, the wealth distribution that are driving the train. This tells the story of America, in my view. I mean, the chart really tells the story where you had the top 10%, you know, contributing to a third of the spending. And then the line keeps going up and keeps going up, keeps going up. And now it's hit 50%. Does this concern you at all? What were your reactions when you collected this? Yeah, I'm not comfortable with it on a number of levels. I mean, one, it means, you know, from a macroeconomic perspective, that the U.S.

6:29economy is very dependent on a very small group of high income, high net worth households. And if they slip up for whatever reason, let's say the stock market corrects, goes down 10, 23 percent, stays down, those folks are going to turn more cautious. It's not like they're going to curtail their spending. They're very, very well off. But they'll turn more cautious on the so-called negative wealth effects. And that'll be a real threat to the economy because the economy is obviously already struggling very significantly. And then, of course, the folks in the bottom and middle parts of the income distribution, they're struggling to make ends meet.

7:09Their income, their spending is barely keeping pace, if at all, with the rate of inflation. So the real spending has an increase. And that obviously creates all kinds of societal issues and I think goes at least partially explaining our fractured politics, which obviously has all kinds of implications. So there's numerous implications of this, none of them good. How much of this is because of the increases we've seen in the stock market? I mean, just looking at this data, you've got the bottom 80 % who have increased their spending the past four years by around 25%. And you think that sounds maybe promising, but inflation is pretty much at that level.

7:47So they're basically just tracking with prices. Top 10%, their spending is up 60 % in the past four years. So they're spending more than ever. How much of that is because asset prices have gone up? We're looking at record highs in the stock market. Housing prices have obviously gone up too. Is this a story of my stocks are up and therefore I'm more confident and I'm more willing to spend? I think that's a big part of it. You know, economists call it the wealth effect. I mean, people are wealthier, feel wealthier. You know, they have more resource to go out and spend. I mean, they can borrow against that wealth.

8:26Many of the highest income households, that's what they do. They borrow against their wealth and spend And they feel more confident, as they should. I mean, they're sitting on a pretty large nest egg. And if that nest egg is getting bigger, if stock prices are rising, housing values appreciating, then it makes them more willing to spend. So it's both being more willing and able to spend. And that's what they do. And, of course, asset prices are up a lot. Stock prices are at record highs. Kind of catapulted higher here. You know, AI is driving a lot of that, but there's, you know, plenty of stockholder wealth.

9:07Housing values have also risen quite considerably. They're up almost 60 % since the pandemic yet, and that's nationwide. So, you know, in parts of the country, they're up 70, 80, 90%. So, yeah, people are feeling not wealthy. And these folks, they don't owe anything. You know, if they own a mortgage, it's only because it's free money. They got it at the mortgage back in the pandemic, two and a half, three, three and a half percent. So it's kind of effectively free money. And they don't have any credit card debt. They don't own debt on their auto. They're not at all sensitive to the higher interest rates on debt.

9:44So, you know, you add it all up. That, I think, is the largest of the explanation for why they're out spending as aggressively as they are and why they're accounting for such a high share of overall spending. Yeah. Yeah. There's almost two parts to this story. One is the reliance and the dependence that our economy is leaning on rich people. The fact that basically half of the economic activity is rich people. But then there's another side to this, which is, you know, as I said, we just saw this retail sales data and the data looks good. But there's this possibility that actually the data that we're hearing and we're getting from our government on the economy is kind of useless in a way in that it's only really or increasingly only reflecting the behaviors of rich people, which is only a small subset of the entire population.

10:43And so there's this other dynamic here where you have data coming in, but you can't really trust the data because, you know, how much of that is impacted by rich people, by the top 10%, or as you said, the top 3.3%. And I'm wondering if there are any other examples of economic data that you're seeing, where the data comes out, we all go, oh, good, things look good, America's doing great. And then you dig in, and you realize, no, it's actually, it's not America, it's wealthy America. Oh, yeah. This is an age-old problem in economics. You look at the averages and the means and the medians in the middle of the distribution, and you say, oh, no problem.

11:31Everything's fine. Take the banking crisis back now almost two and a half years ago. So if you looked at capital ratios for the banking system or the return on equity or profitability, you go, oh, no problem. But then you go look at the distribution and you look at the tails of the distribution. Who's at one end and the other? You go, oh, my gosh, you've got a real problem. It's Silicon Valley Bank or First Republic. Same deal here. We're looking at the averages, the means, the medians, kind of the middle of the distribution. But the distribution is all skewed. So it's giving you a picture that's not representative of the reality of what the world feels like for most Americans.

12:12And this goes perhaps to why many Americans, most Americans, I think, are feeling pretty punk about the economy. This isn't working for me. And you look at the hours, you go, well, what's the problem? Everyone's got a job, but this is the problem. Their spending hasn't been able to keep up or just barely kept up with the pace of inflation over the past five, six years. I'm wondering to what extent you think this should be affecting our central bank policy. I mean, when this episode as the Fed will be meeting later in the day, and we're going to get most likely a rate cut. Does this change your views at all?

12:53I mean, the idea that we're getting this positive retail data, we're getting signs that spending is increasing, but then it's actually only really just rich people who are increasing their spending. I'm wondering if your position on Fed policy might be changing at all as a result of these findings, or perhaps not. Not in the near term. I mean, I do think, you know, front and center for the Fed, as it should be, is the job market. The job market is flagging. There's been no effective job growth in recent months. And that's even before we get all the revisions in, which are almost certainly going to show that the economy has been losing jobs.

13:30Not consistently, but for a number of months. So if you're in that kind of world where the job market has gone flat, I think you need to start addressing that, particularly in the context of the Fed, particularly in the context of Fed independence. Because if we go into recession, they're going to get blamed. And it's going to be existential for their independence, which is already under tremendous pressure. So I think they need to ease and they need to ease fast. But, you know, I don't think it's the Fed's job to fix this problem we have with the income and wealth distribution. That's not – they don't have the tools to do that.

14:06They have the tools to keep the economy moving forward in aggregate, but they can't address these, you know, broader equity distributional issues. That's in the purview of Congress and the administration. That goes to the tax code. That goes to government spending and who benefits, who doesn't benefit. Those kinds of things. Yeah. Yeah. Just while we have you, do you have any predictions for this Fed meeting? I mean, 96 % of Wall Street would say 25 basis point cut, but you've also got the president saying it should be bigger than that. Yeah, they'll cut. It's baked 25 basis point, a quarter point.

14:45I mean, there has been some conversation around 50 basis points, a half a percentage point. I don't think we're going to get there, at least not this go around. I mean, I do think the ponderance of the members of the Fed believe that they should cut, but they need to be wary of inflation. It is picking up. Yeah, it should be temporary because of the tariffs, and once the tariffs stabilize, inflation should come back in. But that's a forecast, and it's a pretty tenuous one in the context of pretty fragile inflation expectations. So they need to be careful. So I The other thing is they got another meeting in six weeks and another one that's in October, another one in December.

15:26So, you know, if things don't get back on the rails here and the job market continues to weaken and the economy more broadly looks like it's going to flag, then they can cut more aggressively. But at this point, I suspect 25 basis points. All right, Mark, thank you very much. Really appreciate this. And I will say that analysis was very eye-opening for me, 50%. It's just unbelievable. Yeah, I hear you. We appreciate your time. Thanks, Ed.

15:56That was Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. Bottom line, there are many stories that you can tell yourself about the economy right now. And there are many rosy stories you can tell yourself about the economy. We can look at the retail sales that we just saw. We can look at GDP growth. We can look at the stock market hitting all-time highs. and we can say that the consumer is more resilient than ever, that spending is going up. And that is true, but for only a small subset of people. The reality that we must increasingly understand is that we live in a bifurcated economy where there are a handful of wealthy households that are spending, that are buying stocks, that are driving growth and pushing all of these numbers up.

16:46But behind that data, there is a darker story happening, a story of the majority. And the story for many of those people is that they are simply trying to keep up. After the break, a look at Trump's newest Fed appointee. If you're enjoying the show, give ProfitG Markets a follow.

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20:01We're back with Profit Markets. The Senate has confirmed Stephen Myron, a White House economic advisor, as governor of the Federal Reserve. This is the first time in 90 years that a sitting White House official has served on the board of the Fed. Myron is currently set to serve only the remaining months of former Governor Adriana Kugler's term, which ends in January. He is currently taking part in this week's Fed meeting, where the governors are voting on a potential rate cut. Okay, question, who is Stephen Myron? And how did this active White House official end up getting a job at the Federal Reserve?

20:38Well, let's dig in. Let's review his story. Stephen Myron's career really began in college, where he got his bachelor's in economics at Boston University. He then went on to a PhD in economics at Harvard, where he studied under a former economic advisor to Reagan and one of the core architects of Reaganomics. After that, he took a job in finance, first at a small investment firm, then Fidelity, then a hedge fund called Sovarnum. And it was at Sovarnum where many of his political convictions really started to become clear, especially to his colleagues. In fact, so clear, it apparently became a bit of a problem.

21:16His colleagues said they, quote, worried that Myron's investment decisions could be negatively influenced by his politics. This did eventually lead to a career in the public sector. During the pandemic, he got a position working as an advisor on pandemic relief programs. He later started writing opinion pieces for think tanks and investment firms. One of those pieces was entitled A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System. And that was important for two main reasons. One, it caught the attention of Trump's circle, which led to his appointment as one of his economic advisors. and two, it was almost an exact blueprint of Trump's tariff policy.

21:59This was really the moment that clarified Myron's economic agenda, and that was follow the leader, go with Trump. And now that he is in the White House, that agenda has only progressed. For example, he has long been holding the position that tariffs actually won't cause inflation. And just last month, he doubled down on that position on CNBC. There just still continues to be no evidence whatsoever of any tariff-induced inflation. I think lots of folks who are expecting that, who are predicting doom and gloom, it just hasn't panned out and it continues to not pan out for them. Just to note, that isn't true.

22:36We are seeing tariff-induced inflation. That is why inflation is rising and it is specifically rising in goods that are most sensitive to tariffs. He also recently became one of Jerome Powell's greatest critics. He publicly disavowed Powell's interest rate decisions, and he has also been publicly praising Trump's decisions. He said that Trump has made, quote, a series of excellent calls on monetary policy. But his most aggressive stances and perhaps most consequential are his stances on the Fed itself. Specifically, he wants the executive branch to have more control over monetary policy, whether that is through shortening the Fed's term limits or putting state governors in charge of the reserve banks or through giving the president, quote, increased oversight on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

23:24The idea is really to place more political pressure on the Fed, which is, of course, exactly what Trump wants to do. Now, does he believe this because he thinks it's actually good policy? Or does he believe it because he wants to get into Trump's good graces? We can't know for sure, but one quote from a former colleague is quite striking. Quote, Myron is a well-meaning person who understands that his job requires some intellectual backflips and occasional public worship. Now, the final piece to note, and this is the most unusual piece. As we said, Stephen Myron already has a position in the White House.

24:04That is unusual. What is more unusual is that he actually isn't resigning from that position. The plan is to take what they're calling an unpaid leave, complete his term at the Fed, and then return to the White House. But crucially, he isn't actually giving up the position. He's still in that post. Put another way, the Fed's independence is, at this point, kind of compromised. Not in a huge, dramatic way, but the fact of the matter is, the White House has now installed one of its own officials into the Fed. Now, the extent to which this individual will actually influence our monetary policy, that remains to be seen.

24:44But what probably matters more here is the precedent. This is the first time we've seen any such arrangement. But if this, combined with the attempted firing of Lisa Cook, is any indication of what's to come, well then, you can only conclude this probably won't be the last.

25:06Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by Claire Miller, edited by Joel Patterson, and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Our research team is Dan Chalon, Isabel Akinsal, Kristen O'Donoghue, and Miel Saverio. And our technical director is Drew Burrows. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow.

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