Trump Threatened to End Iranian Civilization — What Comes Next?

0:00Support for this show comes from Virgin Atlantic. A lot of people dread flying. I've been on some bad flights and I've been on some truly miserable flights. But it's a whole different story when an airline shows up for you and the crew treats you like a VIP. Virgin Atlantic offers warm, one-on-one service from the moment you step on board. Its upper-class cabin features four-course meals, fully laid-flat seats, and drinks delivered on demand. Make the journey as exceptional as the destination when you fly Virgin Atlantic. Go to virginatlantic.com to learn more.

0:32Today's number, 80. That's how many years have passed since a nuclear bomb was last dropped on Earth. And here's to hoping that by the time you hear this, that will still be true.

0:46Ian Bremmer:Money market matters. If money is evil, then that building is hell. The show goes on! The folks are never watching. So, so! Welcome to Prof G Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is April 8th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices declined through the day but ended the session flat, oil climbed, and treasury yields were flat. What else is happening? President Trump has threatened to completely wipe out Iran. Trump set an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline on Tuesday for Iran to fully reopen the strait or face strikes on civilian infrastructure. Trump posted on Truth Social, quote, A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.

1:33As of Tuesday evening at the time of this recording, Iran had ended direct contact with the administration, though talks with mediators were ongoing. Pakistan's prime minister called on Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks. And for the Strait of Hormuz to open during that time, Trump then said he was in, quote, heated negotiations. the S &P and the Nasdaq and the Dow all fell as much as 1 % through the day as hopes for a ceasefire dimmed but closed roughly flat. So here to help us break down the situation we're speaking with Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group. Ian, so much to get into here.

2:13We're obviously recording before the deadline so by the time people listen to this things might have gone either way and we'll get into that but first I would just love your reactions to what Trump has written here, quote, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. Have you ever seen anything like this? And what do you make of it?

2:32Ian Bremmer:No, no, I haven't. I mean, if you were to take it at face value, it's threatening genocide. And it's an unhinged post. It shows that Trump is increasingly really angry about how badly this war is going for him, about the fact that the Iranians have not capitulated despite his superior military capabilities. And he has no one to blame but himself. So he is, in a sense, painting himself in a corner. But I also, and again, I'm saying this only a few hours before the deadline. And at this point, the Iranians have given no reason to believe that they're engaging constructively whatsoever with Trump's ultimatum.

3:16Ian Bremmer:And yet I firmly believe that Trump will not make good on his threat. And there are a couple of obvious reasons for that. One is that if he did, the United States would be seen as a rogue state by countries all over the world. And it would it would devastate America's standing influence and power, not least with core allies who would not sit back and tolerate that sort of behavior. It would have a very dramatic impact on the ability of the United States to continue to count on, rely on, coordinate with, share intelligence with allies. That's number one. Number two, it would have enormous impact on the global economy.

4:06Ian Bremmer:because the Iranians would hit back. They'd hit back in a big way. We've already seen that the Iranians continue to have capabilities to use both ballistic missiles and large numbers of drones, which they can hit critical infrastructure targets across the Gulf states, which can cause a lot of damage. The big thing they've hit so far that they've really made a difference with is the LNG capacity of Qatar,$20 billion of damage with their strikes, three to five years to repair it. But we could see a lot more of that. If the desalination plants were destroyed, for example, in Gulf countries, you would have mass exodus from those countries.

4:53Ian Bremmer:You would not have the viability economically to continue to support the livelihood of the people that live there. So this is a huge thing. And ultimately, as much as Trump is angry and narcissistic and short term oriented and focusing on himself as opposed to the country, you can say all those things. But but this is still way beyond what one could plausibly imagine that he would do. So that's that's the constraint side. That's why there may be there are lots of ways he can he can find to get out of this. He can say that the Iranians are actually being more constructive and more tankers are going through.

5:36Ian Bremmer:So he's going to give them more time. He can say, I'm hitting this one additional bridge or one power plant. I'm not actually going through with my full threat from eight to 12 o 'clock, but I'm giving you one final offer. And now you've got until Friday or next week or two weeks or whatever it is. Right. So lots of ways he can do it. But But the actual threats that have been articulated as they have, he's not going through with those. I mean, I would stake my reputation on that. Right. Yeah. Even though I have no knowledge of that, it is, in my view, utterly implausible. Now, having said that, two things I would want to really caution you about and then wherever you want to go is fine.

6:19Yeah.

6:19Ian Bremmer:One thing to caution you about is that the Israelis have engaged in strikes up against at least 10 railroad targets in Iran today. Those are infrastructure targets. They can be used by the military. They are used for civilian purposes, too. The Israelis yesterday blew up a major petrochemical facility in Iraq. Second time they've hit such a facility, causing billions of dollars of long-term damage to Iran's economy. So, I mean, if you're Iran, this is even before the deadline. I understand that Israel is the one doing the bombing, not the United States. But from Iran's perspective, those bombs kind of feel the same, right?

7:10Ian Bremmer:So the reality is they're fighting against the United States and Israel. And Israel is continuing to engage in this level of destruction, irrespective of the timing and the deadlines that the Americans are putting forward to Iran. And then the final point I would raise, the final cautionary point, which is even though I think it is ludicrous to imagine that the U.S. would use a nuclear weapon in this environment tonight, the civilizational destruction, I think it's ludicrous to imagine that. Even though I think it is absolutely the case that they will not follow through with bombing them into the Stone Age from 8 to 12 o 'clock and that tomorrow we wake up and there's no Iran to speak of.

8:00Ian Bremmer:It's been Gaza-fied. I don't believe that for a second. But I also understand that we are seeing mission creep. I understand that every day this war goes on, it becomes a little easier to get a little deeper in. to do more damage, to have more people killed, to risk more American servicemen and women, to send more troops. I mean, Trump gave his big speech last week. He was saying two to three weeks, but privately he was saying four weeks. And then a few days later he was saying, but if we were just a little more patient than those four weeks, we could take the oil. And then we've got all of these opportunities, right?

8:43Ian Bremmer:And this was after the first week of the war, he had a G7 meeting And he told the G7 heads of state that this war is going to be over within days, a matter of a few days. And it is just a question of how they surrender. They are preparing to surrender completely. So we are watching these continued expansion, incremental expansion of America's engagement in this war in a way that if it continues, will not only cause unheard of economic damage, could make this war comparable to or worse than the damage that we saw and experienced all of us during the pandemic. But we also could see human damage consequences in Iran and across the region that could have enormous consequence.

9:43Ian Bremmer:And those things, I don't think that Trump is thinking about that today. I don't think those are the decisions he is considering taking today. But I absolutely see the knock on consequences of a few months of this getting you into an environment where you're well over your head. The tide is dragging you in and you can't swim anymore. So, I mean, we should not, despite the fact that I feel very confident about what we're going to see this evening, I don't feel confident at all about where I think we're heading in the medium to long term. Part of why you believe, and by the way, I agree with you, that he won't drop a bomb in the next several hours, is the idea that he hasn't completely lost his mind.

10:34Like, he understands a little bit. There is a semblance of an understanding of the implications of dropping a nuclear bomb, which I think makes sense. But I think there would be others who would say, well, this tweet, this truth social, this statement is proof that he is now completely unhinged and he actually has lost his mind, which means all bets are off. I don't personally think that instinctively but what would you say to someone who would say that to you that you know the guy is insane

11:08Ian Bremmer:well it depends on the tenor of the person who is saying it to me because many of the people that are saying those things are folks that are already so far gone in the idea that this guy is Hitler reincarnate and the idea that there are no checks and balances on him right So that everything he wants to do, he can just do as if he were an actual dictator. Is that not true? I mean, I mean, of course, that's not true. In what sense is people around him that are they are kissing his ass constantly and they're telling him things are going better than they actually are. And that is part of the problem.

11:47Ian Bremmer:But but there are still constraints. There are still restraining mechanisms. There is Congress. There is a media that actually reports on him. There are polls. There are markets. There are all these things that don't exist in North Korea, right? There are all these things that do not constrain an actual dictator that constrain Trump. Remember, you know, the United States, we've saw through a significant investigation, very well done forensically, is responsible for targeting and blowing up a girl's school. And well over 100 Iranian civilians killed. This was not intentional. It was a mis-targeting.

12:32Ian Bremmer:The data had not been updated. It wasn't an AI mistake, but it was a mistake. But Trump's response was to blame the Iranians. It wasn't him. Why? I mean, if he doesn't care, and if they're just animals, they're not humans, and if it's all the responsibility of the Islamic Republic, well, then just own it, because they don't have human rights at that point. If you're really going down that route, if you think that Trump no longer, he's unhinged, he doesn't care at all about human life, then many of the things that he would have done, he would have done differently already. But either way, they still got killed.

13:08I mean, I think this would be the response is that there's a little bit of a check insofar as he doesn't want to admit or not admit, but he would say that it wasn't our intention or that it was the Iranians' fault. But either way, I mean, Congress exists, but he's still willing to blow past and make decisions without their approval. The media still exists and he's still willing to do completely outrageous things despite getting pilloried by people like, I don't know, me.

13:33Ian Bremmer:Well, he's doing outrageous things. Yeah. Just, again, I am pushing back against genocide. Right. I'm pushing back against a nuclear weapon. I'm also pushing back against the intentional targeting of a girl school, which he did not do. Again, the investigations from The New York Times and other sources were very clear. This was not an order of shock and awe, let's blow up an Iranian girl school. Yeah. They did not intend to do that. They are not trying to maximize civilian casualties. They're just enormously angry that the Iranian regime is not capitulating despite all of their bravado and all of their superior military strength.

14:21Ian Bremmer:And it's kind of funny in the sense that what Trump has been saying to the Iranians, again, if you take him at face value, he's been saying this is not our problem and that other countries need to deal with this. This is their problem, right? Other countries have been dealing with it. They're worried that they can't get their oil through. And so they are paying the Iranians$2 million a ship to get their oil through. Trump is dealing with it. You know, he's worried about oil and gas prices, so he has suspended sanctions on Iranian oil. Iranian oil. That's money that's going to the Islamic Republic.

15:04Ian Bremmer:Why? Because Trump's revealed preference is, I hate these guys. I want them to lose, but I don't hate them so much that I'm willing to take even higher costs for my own gas prices in the United States that I'm going to be punished for. So, again, at every step, he is showing that he is constrained. He's not showing that he has a value, that he values human life. He's not showing that he cares about people other than himself. He's not showing that, but he's showing he's constrained. And that is the core, you know, rational conclusion from people that are watching what he is doing and not just focusing on his tweets as if they are somehow a reflection of actual reality.

15:51Ian Bremmer:Now, I mean, look, it's hard because we've never had. Usually presidents don't say very much in their real time public statements. And Trump obviously says far too much. And he's frequently incoherent. He's frequently self-contradictory. And he he allows his impulses, his id to act in a completely unrestrained way. And the people around him facilitate that. So it makes it harder to to analyze and assess this guy. And it also makes it harder because if you're on one side or the other politically in the U.S. or globally, you don't get any benefits from having a nuanced perspective. You know, everybody wants you to say that this guy is either America first and no one has ever been a president like him.

16:46Ian Bremmer:No one's ever accomplished much or he is evil incarnate. He is literally Hitler, which I mean, neither of those two things, in my view, are true or useful. And so I don't take them as my as my starting off point. I think my starting off point is I'm going to do analysis. I've spent my entire career trying to understand international relations, by the way, frequent, not that much on the United States. So I look at the U S in the context of how other countries act in similar scenarios. And how might I apply that to my own country, the Americans, right? Um, but, and then I tell people what I think, I'm just, it's just honest analysis.

17:29Ian Bremmer:And if people push back, I'm like, well, okay, I could be wrong, but at least I'm not lying to you. So let's say you're right. People will be listening to this in the morning. Let's say Trump doesn't bomb Iran tonight. How will the story play out then? I mean, what will have changed? I mean, again, the U.S. continues to bomb, but he is not going to make good on the 8 to 12 o 'clock end of civilization. All the bridges, all the power plants are getting hit. He will not do that. People watching this now know he has not done that. Right. So let's say he doesn't do that. Let's say he doesn't end the civilization, go fully nuclear, go totally insane.

18:09How will things play out from then on? Because it still seems like something has changed here. He's threatened it. I can't tell whether that means something geopolitically. I have a feeling it does. But what does that mean for the Iran situation going forward? How do you think that it will play out?

18:26Ian Bremmer:Well, look, I mean, the Iranians have called his bluff in so far as after this post. And remember, the end of the post was the whole God bless the Iranian people. So even in the unhinged post, he's trying to make a distinction between the Islamic Republic and the Iranian people. And I can promise you, everyone that's asked me about this post, no one's brought up the last sentence because the last sentence doesn't serve the narrative. The first sentence does. So not that I care that much because the whole thing is unhinged. But if we're really digging into it, we should recognize that he wrote the whole thing.

19:02Ian Bremmer:He didn't just write the first sentence. Yeah. What do I think? I think that when the Iranians saw that, they said, great. OK, we're just we're done. We're not talking. We're breaking off the conversations with the Pakistanis for today. So let's assume that he finds a bit of an off ramp. He gives them some time or he doesn't go fully ballistic nuclear. And now the Iranians have the ability to come back. They have the ability to engage again. And then you can have some more talks in this slightly more escalated environment. You know, let's keep in mind that the Iranians just let go these French prisoners that they had.

19:41Ian Bremmer:So they are engaging with the French. They are engaging with the Pakistanis. They are engaging with the Chinese. The Iranians are negotiating with lots of countries right now for different things, but not with the Americans. So the one big question for for tomorrow or today when people are now watching this is are the Iranians now having gone through the deadline and lived to see another day? are they now engaging with the Americans directly or indirectly again? And is the United States prepared to engage in that process? I suspect the answer is yes, but we don't know that. Absent that, Trump has also said this war is going to be over in two to three weeks.

20:28Ian Bremmer:Now, that means one to two weeks. Again, I expect that he's going to continue. So I expect that he's, you know, he's pulling back on his maximalist rhetoric, but he's pushing forward on all of the constraints on his time. The problem is that when you tell the Iranians two to three weeks and then I'm done, they're thinking if we just survive two to three weeks, you know, we're golden. You know that now we've got the influence over the straits and everything else. So, I mean, Trump, he is his own worst enemy in so many ways on this conflict. And then and meanwhile, for the markets, every day we keep talking about this are weeks that the global economy is going to be experiencing the knock on damage of what's happening.

21:20Yeah. I could ask you questions for hours, but I have to let you go. So I guess my final question here, given what has happened now, would you say that this, it sounds like you believe that this actually extends the timeline. I was wondering, maybe we're at the, we're approaching the end game here. He's now threatening what amounts to pretty much a nuke. Maybe the story's coming to a close, or maybe it's just beginning. And maybe this actually, to your point, we wake up, we're still alive. Let's keep fighting.

21:52Ian Bremmer:Again, we've heard explosions on Karg Island. That seems to me relevant. That seems to me, it looks like it came from the United States. If that is true, and I don't have full visibility on that, but if that's true, that's softening military targets while the American troops are getting in place. The one thing we haven't talked about at all in this conversation is the most real thing here, actual physical real thing, which is that the Americans have a third aircraft strike force and thousands of additional troops that they have deployed to the region. But they're not all there yet. And they won't be until around April 16th.

22:36Ian Bremmer:And so it seems to me that what I see are American military engagement that is meant to set the table for eventually Trump considering using those ground forces. I mean, he has used the ground forces to rescue an American airman successfully from that F-15 this weekend, but he hasn't used them in any significant way. That could easily change in two weeks. Yes. And that's again. So for me, I don't think we're close to the end game in part because we haven't yet got to that point in the conflict. The point we're in the conflict we're in right now is just all of this continued escalation in in geopolitics by tweet.

23:22Ian Bremmer:That that's that is where the 21st century is right now. And it's it's sad and dystopian. But it doesn't really relate that closely to what's happening in the war. All right. Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group. Ian, always appreciate your time. Thank you so much. Good stuff. After the break, an inside look at the most damning Sam Altman investigation yet. And if you're enjoying the show, please follow our new Profitview Markets YouTube channel. The link is in the description.

24:02Ian Bremmer:And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop. A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning. It's going to be fun. We rarely agree. But we almost never disagree. And we're always learning. That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday. This is Advertiser Content brought to you by Virgin Atlantic Ed. a couple weeks back. I got you a birthday gift. Not to pat myself on the back, but it was a pretty good one. It was indeed. You surprised me with Virgin Atlantic upper-class tickets to London.

24:40So tell us all about it. It was pretty incredible. From the moment I entered that upper-class cabin, I have to tell you, I felt like a VIP. Anything I needed, a drink, snack, assistance with the seat. Flat seats. Flat seats. That's the key. Flat seats, exactly. Had the four-course meal, got my champagne. Very delicious. Enjoyed the food. And the journey home? The journey home was great. I went to the Virgin Atlantic LHR Clubhouse. That's the Heathrow Clubhouse. Heathrow Clubhouse was awesome. Got myself a coffee, headed over to the meditation pod that they call the Soma Dome. Kind of felt like a sort of spaceship where you relax and think nice thoughts.

25:21So I did that for a little bit. Then we went over to the wing, which are these acoustically sealed booths where you could do some work. You could even record a podcast. I didn't do that, but maybe I should have. It was a very enjoyable experience. So, Ed, the real question here is what are you planning to get me for my birthday? See the world differently with Virgin Atlantic. Flying should be more than just transport. It is part of the adventure. Go to virginatlantic.com to learn more. Tickets and lounge access provided by Virgin Atlantic.

25:56Ian Bremmer:For the last 10 years, everything in American politics has basically revolved around one man. And as a political journalist who came of age during Donald Trump's rise in 2016, I've had a front row seat. I am officially running for president of the United States. It's going to be only America first. America first. Thousands of supporters of President Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol building. But is it possible to talk about politics without talking about Donald Trump? That's the question I'm going to ask in our new show from Vox. The idea of like a post-Trump or not exactly Trump-focused show can exist because he's not really driving any agenda items.