Why Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt

25:12and to a certain extent for them, for the rich, it really doesn't matter what happens in America because as long as there's a place they can go and have an amazing life and buy their rights, which they can in any number of countries, rich people are always welcome somewhere. There will always be a country that says, come one, come all. If you're rich, we'll ensure you're protected. Your daughter has access to family planning. You have rights. Your kids will go to great colleges. Don't worry about it. And this is the unholy alliance between our government and the 0.1%. And unless the 0.1 % decide to become class traitors and actually speak up, none of this shit is gonna change.

25:50We are going to continue to build another brick in the fascist wall. So I am exceptionally disappointed that the exceptionally wealthy are just giving kind of like symbolic resistance to what is going on here. If they wanna hand over America to a very dark side, we are well on our way. There needs to be more class traders and those class traders have to be the 0.1 % because quite frankly, they're the ones with all the power right now and it is not happening. What is the last thing that's going to run through in your head on your deathbed that I was worth more money than I needed to be or that I stood up for American values?

26:30We'll be right back after the break for our conversation with Mike Moffitt. If you're enjoying the show so far, be sure to give Prof.G Markets a follow wherever you get your podcasts.

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29:07Okay, welcome back. Here's our conversation with Mike Moffat, founding director of the University of Ottawa's Missing Middle Initiative, and also a former economic advisor to Justin Trudeau. Mike, thank you so much for joining us on the podcast. Oh, thanks for having me. I'll just start with this. We've been talking a lot about Canada lately, mostly in relation to Trump. You know, we had this 51st state drama. We had the tariff stuff. We've got this potential trade war. And I've been watching all of this go down, and it's gradually dawned on me just how little I actually know about Canada. And I talk with my friends about this, and I talk with my peers, and it becomes clear to me they don't really know much either.

29:50So I don't think I'm in the minority. I think there are just a lot of well-read, informed Americans out there who don't know a lot about this country, which is why I'm just so glad to have you on today to fix that for us. So I'd love to start with just like an overview of Canada's economy. So how big actually is the Canada economy? What are its strengths? What are its weaknesses? And what makes it different from the American economy? So we're about a$2 trillion economy and population of about 40 million. We're a little bit more heavily reliant on manufacturing. than the United States. As far as energy goes, I think we produce more oil per capita than most places outside of Norway and the Middle East.

30:38So like the United States, it's a pretty diverse economy. It's a very kind of regional economy. One of the big differences is we're far more reliant on trade. That trade is about 40 % of our GDP relative to about 15 % to the United States. and because of accidents of geography and history, needless to say that most of our trade is with the United States. We are very reliant on a single customer. That makes me think that this tariff situation is going to be a big, big problem and we will get there. But just as we continue to build this picture of Canada, give us a sense of the political situation in Canada right now.

31:17I think most people probably know Trudeau has resigned, but he's still, from my understanding, prime minister for now. What's happening in Canadian politics? What's going to happen with Trudeau moving forward? Right now, the Liberals are having a leadership campaign. The new leader will be selected March the 9th. It will almost certainly be Mark Carney, who will kind of instantly become prime minister at that point. Two or three months ago, the Liberals were dead. It was, you know, they were going to be all but wiped out in the next election. But with Trudeau resigning, they got a little bit of a bounce back in the polls.

31:54But after all of this kind of Trump tariff, Canada, the United States, we're starting to see a resurgence of the federal liberal party that Mark Carney is about even in the polls with the conservative leader of Polyev. And it feels like the next election is basically going to be a referendum on who is better positioned to deal with Trump. On the one hand, you have Polly F, who is a career politician, versus Mark Carney, who is a central banker in two G7 countries. Bank of England, right? I didn't realize that. You've got Mark Carney, Bank of England and Bank of Canada. This guy's a machine. Yeah, he absolutely is.

32:36But I think the big question up here is how much does monetary policy history affect your ability to do these things? But I think one of the things that Carney has in his favor is he was over at the Bank of England during the whole Brexit period. So he has some kind of experience, you know, dealing with these issues where you've got political unrest. You know, you have these kind of geopolitical factors. So we're actually going to have a race up here. And it didn't look like we were going to have one even three months ago. So interesting. And then my final question on this Canada 101 segment is the history of Canada.

33:11Could you just give us a very brief history of Canada? You know, how did this country form? What are its cultural roots? How did we get to where we are today? Well, we can think of it essentially on the American side is it's the people who stayed loyal to the crown. It was a lot of the people who were on the other side of the American revolution who settled up here. And obviously, as well, we have a large French component that Quebec makes up about 25 percent of the population. So we're culturally a little bit different. We're, you know, oddly more conservative in ways in the cautious sense, not the sort of political sense.

33:50You know, we don't as much like big changes. You know, we're loyal to the crown. So, you know, we're more of a place of evolution. I think the other big difference is, you know, when it comes to integrating newcomers, you know, the United States has always had this kind of melting pot type approach, right? where you come in from all over the world and you kind of add and you're all mixed together and creating one hopefully harmonized culture. You know, Canada is more of a patchwork quilt that people hang on to their cultural identities for generations. So you could be Indo-Canadian or Scottish-Canadian or French-Canadian.

34:26So we're more comfortable with those differences up here. Scott, I will turn it over to you to get into the economics. I feel as if I need to say to you, as an American, what I should have said to my ex-wife, and that is, I'm sorry I've been such an asshole. The behavior is totally unacceptable, and I'm sorry on behalf of any sane American. And finally, or second, the most important question, let's talk about Conor McDavid. Edmonton Oilers, is that right? Edmonton Oilers, Connor McDavid. Yeah, that was a mixed blessing for me. I'm a huge Calgary Flames fan, which is the Oilers rival. So that was a tough day for me.

35:05I was like, I was so happy Canada won. But I'm like, why did it have to be the guy we call McJesus up here? You know, it'd be like being a Yankees fan and, you know, seeing the Red Sox, you know, win a baseball tournament for the Americans. It's kind of a mixed blessing. I just want to point out, I'm completely, I'm shocked that you know anything about hockey, Scott. So let's explain to Ed because Ed is not much of a man. The Four Nations hockey tournament, which was arguably the greatest sports spectacle of the last year, Connor McDavid in sudden death over time of the Edmonton Oilers put it in the net for Team Canada.

35:44And you've never heard so many Americans root for Canada, I think, in history. Anyways, my serious question now, what's interesting or one of the things that's interesting about America is that our news is 22 minutes of domestic and then eight minutes of international, whereas most nations it's reversed. We don't think much about other nations. And I think the general stereotype we have of Canada is it's basically a nicer, friendly or maybe a little bit more shit together version of America. But it strikes me or my thesis is that a lot of the problems at ALS are the same problems you have and sometimes even worse, whether it's income inequality.

36:22It feels like someone told me that there's literally a half a dozen or a dozen families that control a disproportionate amount of the economy, that housing is just a shit show in Canada, and that many of the immigration problems, many of the problems we're struggling with are not just as bad but worse in Canada. Can you talk about as an economist what two or three things you think are really ailing Canadian society right now? Yeah, so I think the first is the housing crisis. To put it in perspective, average single-family home up here is about$550 ,000 U.S. dollars. In the U.S. Which is$3 million Canadian, right?

37:02Yeah, something like that. It depends on the tariff truck and how much the dollar has dropped in any given day. But we also have to realize that our incomes are a lot lower down here. And that was actually the impetus of us starting the Missing Middle Initiative, is that it's priced at the young middle class across Canada. So we're seeing, you know, young people living with their parents longer, you know, all of these things that you're seeing in the U.S. I think we actually have more of it up here. You know, I think one of the things you can think about Canada is, you know, we're kind of a blue state on steroids.

37:38And we have a lot of this kind of same blue state issues that you see in the United States. You know, we've had very robust immigration and now, you know, our population has absolutely boomed and we haven't created the structures to facilitate that. So there's a lot of tensions here. So I think that's one of the second is absolutely right that Canada's economy is like three oligopolies in a trench coat. We have a lot of inequality that way. We have high levels of market concentration because we have this tension in Canada where we want things to be Canadian. We want Canadian ownership. But when you do that, you create a moat.

38:21And whenever you create barriers to entry, you're going to naturally create oligopolies. So I think that's another one. And finally, we have a business culture here in Canada that's the classic, like nobody ever got fired for buying IBM. Our business leaders up here tend to be very small-c conservative, and that flows through into things like procurement. It's really hard for small businesses to break in here. I used to work in the chemical industry, worked with consumer chemicals, cosmetics companies, and that kind of thing. And it's easier for a small Canadian cosmetics manufacturer to make their first big sale to CVS or Walgreens than it is to make it to one of the big pharmacy chains up here.

39:08They're just very, you know, it's like, okay, we've got our supplier relationships. We have our products. We're fine with that. So healthcare. Healthcare is something that is not working in the United States. I mean, like many of our industries, I would argue that the bottom 90 are there as a vessel to optimize for the top 10. If you're in the upper decile of income-earning households in the U.S., I think we have access to the best health care in the world. But it comes at the price or the expense of the bottom 90. And 40 % of American households now have some sort of medical or dental debt. Talk a little bit about Canadian health care and whether you think it's an example we should be following, learning from, why it doesn't work.

39:49thoughts on healthcare in your country? I do think it's an example, perhaps not necessarily the best example, but the idea that you can go to a hospital or a doctor and pay with your health card and not your credit card, I think there's a lot of merit to that. There are a lot of strains right here now in Canada, and a lot of that is to do with population growth, that it's hard in my province of Ontario to find a family doctor. ER wait times have gotten absolutely out of control. because of a combination of population growth and underinvestment by government. And healthcare here is so political.

40:27It's so wrapped up in how we identify ourselves as Canadians. It is really hard for us to reform. Anytime anybody suggests a major healthcare reform up here, somebody says, well, that's American-style healthcare, and we can't do that. So, you know, overall, I've lived in the U.S. I live in Canada. I kind of like the Canadian system better, but there's a lot of room for improvement. And I find how just attached we are to the system here really prevents the system from evolving in the directions it needs to. It also kind of sounds like an indictment of Canada's government. And just, I mean, especially when I hear about the immigration issues, the idea that population is soaring as a result of loose immigration, which is leading to a lot of these problems.

41:16It sounds like that's where you land on this. What are your thoughts on the government and what the government's done, especially considering that you also worked with the government at one point? Is this an indictment of Trudeau? What have they gotten wrong? Yeah, you are asking me to grade my own homework here a little bit. Yeah, I do think the government did drop the ball on immigration. I think the government would be the first to admit that. We have a relatively new, in the last year and a half or so, Immigration Minister Mark Miller, who's made a number of reforms to the system. And part of those reforms are just lowering the overall number.

41:57But we made some changes about 20 years ago to how our immigration system worked. Traditionally, we've had a lot of immigration, and people come over at age 28 or 29, and their labor market outcomes aren't good, simply because they don't necessarily speak the language. They have a degree or diploma from some institute we've never heard of. Businesses don't want to hire them. So governments, the Trudeau government and the Harper government before them, made this kind of conscious decision to run more of our immigration system through our colleges and universities. Instead of having people come over at 28 or 29, have them come over 18 or 19, get four years of post-secondary under their feet, they'll get a degree or diploma in a place that Canadian businesses have heard of, and they'll have better labor market outcomes.

42:50Like everything, it kind of worked well in theory, but in practice, what happened was the colleges and universities used this as a cash cow. They just kept bringing in tons and tons and tons of students to help pay the bills, and not necessarily the highest quality students, but rather, okay, you know, can you, you know, do you have$50 ,000 a year to pay in tuition? Great, we'll let you in. So that's caused a lot of problems, particularly in our college and university towns, and the federal government has had to unwind that. Many of those policies were by provincial governments, so there is some jurisdictional issues there.

43:27But overall, yeah, the federal government dropped the ball on this. They're trying to clean it up right now, but it's caused a lot of tensions here in Canada. We'll be right back. And if you're enjoying the show so far, hit follow and leave us a review on Prof G Markets.

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46:04We're back with Prof G Markets. Are there any examples or anecdotes or color that you can help people understand the differences between Canadian life and U.S. life or approach to approach to business, approach to relationships, patriotism? What do you observe in Canada and America and you think that's uniquely American or Canadian? So I used to live in Rochester, New York, which is really not that much different than southwestern Ontario, where I was born and raised, you know, the kind of sort of Rust Belt area. You know, I do think there are cultural differences. I find Americans a little bit more open and honest, more willing to tell you, you know, what they think.

46:49Like, again, I find the biggest one in the business community is just willingness to try things, willingness to try new suppliers, try new products, that kind of thing. As somebody who, again, was an entrepreneur for over a decade. And I think that actually might be the biggest difference, that we are so much more afraid to fail up here in Canada. Sounds like England. Yeah, we have this philosophy that failure is not an option, right? So we're never trying, it feels like here in Canada, we're never trying to maximize the best case scenario. We're trying to minimize the worst case scenario. And that creates a kind of level of mediocrity.

47:27As well, I think sometimes here we can get some tall poppy syndrome as well. This is 40 million people, but we all, particularly in the business and politics community, we all kind of know each other. and we can get a little bit mean when we think somebody is getting a little bit too big for their head or accomplishing too much. With respect to the dialogue, if you can call it that, between America's leadership right now and Canada's leadership, how are Canadians on the street? And I'm not sure, my guess is the majority of your colleagues would probably label you the biggest American and so the cultural elite.

48:09But do your best to kind of, if you will, mimic or channel how you think Canadians on average are reacting to some of the rhetoric that's come out of U.S. leadership. Yeah, I think it's a combination of we're hurt and angry. I think weirdly, we're actually more – we've come together more as a country. I think we are less divided than we have been in probably a decade here. So, you know, that's the kind of silver lining to all of this, that the Trump administration has kind of brought us together and created a bit of a common enemy. But, you know, the folks on the ground here are just kind of like, what the hell?

48:47Like, we fought, you know, two world wars with you guys. We were in Afghanistan with you guys. You know, we've done all of these things together. And, you know, we will admit that, you know, we're not perfect up here. We know that we need to do more on defense, military spending. You know, we need to have better security at our ports. So, you know, there is an acknowledgement that some of the things that the administration talks about and some of the things that Americans talk about are legitimate issues and that we do need to be raising our game. But, you know, we feel particularly insulted up here.

49:27And it creates those conditions of patriotism. You know, we haven't seen when it comes to the hockey game, for instance, for us, it felt like the Summit Series of 1972 when we played the Soviets. You know, that was the last time we really cared that much about, you know, winning an international hockey match. So we've kind of come together as a country, you know, because we do, you know, we are not happy with the administration and the rhetoric coming out of the United States. I'd love to hear what you think about these tariffs. Just as a refresher, Trump has obviously made all these tariff threats to Canada.

50:0310 % on energy, 25 % on steel and aluminum, 25 % on cars and trucks, and then 25 % on pretty much everything else that America buys from Canada. You mentioned the reliance on trade in Canada, it sounds like, more so than America. How bad are these tariff threats? Like, if these tariffs actually go through, and it looks like they might, what would it do to Canada's economy? Bank of Canada has done some estimation on this, and it would basically look like the 08-09 financial crisis up here. You'd be looking at a kind of immediate drop of about 3 % to 4 % of GDP and then kind of recovering over time.

50:46But unlike 08-09, it would actually be inflationary in nature. So maybe it's actually a little bit more like the pandemic where we get the GDP drop of the financial crisis without the deflation of the financial crisis. And it would really screw up our supply chains. Because I think how people conceptually think of trade is sort of, you know, I'll trade you my finished good for your finished good. But we have to understand that these supply chains are, you know, they cross the border several times. And, you know, a lot of what gets traded is intermediate goods. And it's kind of going to screw up our ability to do a lot of things.

51:27So, for instance, if we look at housing, drywall. Most drywall that we use in Canada is manufactured in Canada. So like on, in theory, we're kind of self-sufficient on this until you realize that the outer paper that covers drywall, almost all of that is made in the United States. So because of that, that, you know, if there's tariffs or other issues in the border and reciprocal tariffs, even this product, this made in Canada product used in Canada, we're going to see price rises. We're going to see, you know, we're going to see difficulty getting that. So, you know, because the United States specializes in, you know, the paper for drywall, that's going to be an issue.

52:15We specialize in the paper for toilet paper. So, you know, we might not be able to build homes, but you guys might not be able to do other things. And it's just not going to be good for anyone. We won't be able to wipe our ass. Okay. It's not going to be good for anyone. Yeah. And my final Trump-related question, I just have to get your comments on his proposal to make Canada the 51st state. Is there a soul in Canada who thinks this is a good idea? Or is it just completely absurd to everyone in the nation? Well, there is actually a market for it. Yeah, it's about 12 to 15 percent of the population.

52:52Yeah, we've done a lot of grips up here and get it. I've done a lot of polling on it. So there is a certain segment of the population that is more conservatively minded that, you know, thinks that that might not be a bad idea. You know, Trump does have his supporters up here. It tends to only be about 20 to 22 percent of the population. But, yeah, for the rest of us, you know, we're just absolutely no way. Like we love our country. We love being Canadians. We want to stay Canadians. We love visiting the United States, particularly in February up here. So, you know, we want to be good neighbors and friends, but we don't want to move in together.

53:29Just some additional data that Michael referenced. In World War II, Canada entered the war two years before the U.S. and trained over 130 ,000 Allied airmen. During the Iran hostage crisis, Canada or Canadian diplomats sheltered, hid six American embassy staff and helped orchestrate their escape. And had they been caught doing this, they would have been hanging from cranes. They stuck behind in Tehran. It took huge risks. After 9-11, Canada launched Operation Yellow Ribbon, accepting 224 diverted flights when U.S. airspace closed, sheltering 33 ,000 stranded American passengers. Canada, as Michael referenced, fought alongside the U.S.

54:12in World Wars I, II, Korea, the Persian Gulf, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and against ISIS. It is the largest undefended border in the world, the border between Canada and America, which gives you a sense for how much mutual trust there has been leading up to this point. And there's also really deep people-to-people connection with extensive family ties across borders. My parents initially immigrated from Glasgow and London, respectively, to Toronto, where they were welcomed with open arms. I tell this story. I was actually conceived in Toronto, born in San Diego. And the only time I've ever seen my dad cry is every year I give him something off his bucket list.

54:58And he doesn't choose to hang out with me or his grandkids. He wants to go to the Air Canada Center and see the Leafs play the Habs in the opening night of the Toronto Maple Leafs. And at the beginning of the game, a bunch of Scotsmen, Scottish-Canadianmen, come out with bagpipes. and he just loses his shit. But, you know, Canada and America, it's such a wonderful friendship and alliance. And I trust and hope that you and your countrymen recognize there's a lot of Americans that feel a very deep bond with Canada and that we, I generally believe this is just total nonsense. And again, to my ex-wife and to Canada, I am sorry for this type of behavior.

55:41This is unacceptable. and I trust that sooner rather than later we'll be back to just being great, great siblings in what has been one of the strongest alliances in history. Anyways, that's my TED Talk, Michael. Yeah, no, I appreciate that. And, you know, I think Canadians are recognizing that. And we're always trying to keep that in the back of our head that, you know, the American people are our friends. They're not our enemies. You know, this is coming from, you know, particular administration And even folks who voted for Trump didn't necessarily vote for this. Like, he did not campaign on it.

56:17So, you know, as kind of hurt and as offended as many of us are, I think we are being able to make that distinction. And again, I think we also recognize that, you know, we're not perfect in the Canada-U.S. relationship either. And, you know, we have areas where we need to improve. And, you know, we're just hopeful that, you know, we can find some common ground. Final question from me, Mike, and thank you so much. This has been informative, enlightening, and really appreciate your time. If America could learn one thing from Canada, what do you think it should be? Hockey. I was going to say, I saw that coming.

56:56Hockey. I saw that coming. So you're so close. I mean, made it to the final, made it to overtime. I'm a little bit worried, though. You know, over the last decade or so, that American team is really... USA's coming up. It's coming up. USA's coming up. You guys are nine times the size we are. So, you know, I'm worried. You're learning quickly and you're bigger than us. But yeah, overall, you know, I think we can learn a lot from each other. And, you know, we can teach you hockey. You're teaching us baseball. And let's keep playing together. I'm more bullish on hockey. Mike Moffitt is an economist, business professor, and a co-host of the podcast, The Missing Middle.

57:34Mike is the founding director of the University of Ottawa's Missing Middle Initiative, devoted to restoring middle-class prosperity to young Canadians. Mike previously held the role of Chief Innovation Fellow for the Government of Canada, advising on innovation and manufacturing policy, and as a former economic advisor to Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. Mike, this was a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, Michael. Oh, thank you for having me.

58:06Scott, your reactions to Mike, I thought he was great. He's infinitely Canadian. He's nice. He's smart. I just think it's so embarrassing that we are pissing on our neighbors and friends and allies. I just don't get it. I just don't. Let's surrender to and cozy up and give Putin a lap dance. but let's insult Canadians. I don't understand what's going on. And I trust that they're, like Michael, they're a little bit more measured and more mature than our current leadership. And I hope this is just an embarrassing kind of moment in history in terms of the relationship. But I don't know. I've thought a lot about, you know, America seems so strange.

58:51People say, well, is it time to leave? I heard of one of my friend's ex-wife is moving to London because she's so freaked out about Trump. And I said, no, this is the time to move back to America and get in the fight. I mean, I think I've told you this. I'm moving back in 18 months. Finally, my God. Finally, right? Thank God. Thank God. Thank God. The nation, a huge sigh of relief. Yeah, seriously. I shall return. Watch out In-N-Out Burger. Sales are about to go up 12 % year on year. Yeah. It's going to be flying them into Delraya. There you go. I really do think this is an opportunity and a call for Americans living abroad.

59:29If you are worried about the U.S., about what's going on, and maybe you support it. But if you don't, as I don't, I think it's a good time to get back to the U.S., not to be worried about leaving, at least not yet. I think it's time to come home and become part of the resistance. As you've said before, we're a nation of reformers, not quitters. It's much more noble to reform than quit. That's good. That's very profound, Ed. Well, I didn't come up with it. It was you. I'm going to make you CEO of my investment bank. I can't wait. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.

1:00:02Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.

1:00:47And the dark flies And I

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