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Podcast Episode Summary: Radical with Amol Rajan - "Eurovision: Europe’s Biggest Election"
Podcast Description *Radical with Amol Rajan* invites discussions with radicals, pioneers, and innovators across various fields, exploring how their ideas can shape the future.
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Episode Overview
Title: Eurovision: Europe’s Biggest Election Guest Speakers:
- Fraser Nelson, Times columnist and Eurovision enthusiast
- Dr. Dean Vuletic, leading Eurovision historian
Release Date: [Insert Date Here]
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Key Themes and Discussions
Eurovision and Politics
- Cultural Reflection: The conversation begins with Amol admitting his limited familiarity with Eurovision, yet highlights how discussions around the event often reflect deeper cultural and political trends in Europe.
- Israel's Participation Controversy: This year, Israel's participation in the contest is debated due to its political situation related to the war in Gaza. Concerns are raised about the impact of this controversy on the contest's perception and atmosphere.
The Significance of Eurovision
- Cultural Identity: Fraser emphasizes Eurovision as a significant cultural event that showcases diverse national identities through music, contrasting it with more traditional high culture.
- Analyzing Political Trends: Both Fraser and Dean argue that Eurovision often anticipates or reflects political movements and sentiments within Europe, serving as a barometer for societal changes.
Examples of Historical Context
- Ireland and Finland's Wins: The significance of Ireland's win with Dana in 1970 and Finland's victory in 2006 are discussed as pivotal moments that mirrored their political landscapes and aspirations towards European integration.
- Cultural Soft Power: The discussion touches on how Eurovision serves as a platform for countries to redefine their international image, citing Austria's rebranding efforts post-20th century.
Current Issues Surrounding Eurovision
- Political Infiltration: The conversation shifts to the current year's political tensions, particularly regarding Israel. The guests debate the implications of political protests surrounding the event.
- Public Sentiment: Dean comments on how the audience largely wishes to keep Eurovision apolitical, though political commentary is inevitable amidst such a large-scale event.
The UK’s Eurovision Dilemma
- Perception of UK Acts: The discussion transitions to the UK's performance in Eurovision, with Fraser highlighting that the UK's lack of success stems more from musical quality than political bias.
- Comparing National Strategies: The UK’s approach to selecting acts is critiqued; Fraser suggests that a more inclusive and democratic selection process might yield better results.
The Future of Politics in the UK
- UK Politics After Recent Elections: The conversation touches upon the state of the Conservative Party and its challenges post-local elections, with Fraser providing insight into the growing influence of parties like Reform UK.
- Navigating Identity Post-Brexit: The guests discuss how Eurovision can serve as a platform for the UK to reconnect with Europe in a meaningful way following Brexit.
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Key Takeaways
- Eurovision transcends mere entertainment; it is a cultural phenomenon that encapsulates and reflects European political and social identities.
- Current events, particularly concerning Israel’s participation, highlight the intersection of politics and culture in contemporary society.
- The UK’s approach to Eurovision selection and overall political strategy requires re-evaluation to better align with public sentiment and preferences.
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Conclusion This episode provides a riveting exploration of Eurovision's role as a cultural mirror to European politics, emphasizing the importance of understanding both music and political dynamics in shaping national identities. The insights shared by Fraser Nelson and Dr. Dean Vuletic underscore the rich tapestry of history that Eurovision represents, making it a fascinating topic for both fans and political analysts alike.
For more insights and future episodes, subscribe to *Radical with Amol Rajan* on [BBC Sounds](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p04z203l).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the Apartment Bombs. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:43BBC Sounds, music, radio, podcasts. OK, we start this week with a confession. And that confession is that I am not an aficionado when it comes to Eurovision. I've watched it, I've seen the highlights, I'm aware of the cultural phenomenon, but I'm not what you would call a devotee. And yet I've just had one of the most riveting conversations about European politics, European culture, European history, European music, people called Conchitaverse, they wear beards, all sorts of all sorts of different things going on. And the eccentricity of European culture as against America with Fraser Nelson, former editor of The Spectator, and Dr.
1:22Dean Vuletic, who is a leading Eurovision historian. And I promise you, whether you are or aren't a Eurovision nut, and I'm certainly not, this is one of the most interesting conversations you'll hear all week. Because I've just had it explained to me by these guys, why all the controversies about Eurovision this year, I'm going to get into the controversies around Israel specifically, are really a way of reflecting deeper trends, deeper cultural currents that tell you something about which way European history is going to go. Let's do it.
2:04Hello, it's Amol in the Today Podcast studio. Sadly, without Nicholas, who's got some sort of excuse. I think it's this whole issue of Nick Robinson's work ethic, which we've always said was a concern for the BBC. And he's too busy working elsewhere, so he can't be here. Now, I think it's to do with diaries and foreign travel and all that sort of thing. So, Nick, sad not to have you with us. But I've got with me the great Fraser Nelson. Hello, Fraser. Great to be here. Enjoying your new world, post-spectator, Times columnist, Channel 4 documentary maker. You look 10 years younger, if I may say.
2:31In fact, that was a Channel 4 programme, wasn't it? 10 years younger. Maybe you should do that. It's actually my birthday today, so I don't feel very young. It's your birthday today? I know, 52. Fraser Nelson. I'm all better with spending it more. You've decided to come and pay a visit to the Today podcast. Are you going out for a nice dinner tonight with your Swedish wife? No, she's in Istanbul.
2:51What was it about your birthday that made I want to go as far away as possible while still sort of in Europe. Fraser, very good to see you. And we've also got Dr. Dean Vuletic, who joins us from Basel in Switzerland, where the Eurovision Song Contest is taking place this year. Dean, hello, how are you? Hello, Amal. Happy birthday, Fraser. Greetings from Basel, the happiest city on earth these days with the Eurovision Song Contest. I'm feeling great being here. Dr. Vuletic, it's an honour to be on with you. I loved your work in Intervision. Thank you. Thank you very much, Fraser. Please call me Dean.
3:23What's the atmosphere like out there? Because when Eurovision comes to town, how does a place like Basel change, Dean? Well, the city gets decorated in Eurovision signs and banners and flags. There are parties all over the city. There are different venues that people can go to to really enjoy Eurovision. So the Eurovision Village, Eurovision Street, Eurovision Square. So it's the Eurovision capital. Well, the thing that's so interesting, Dean, is that I think there are a lot of people who are kind of vaguely secret Eurovision fans who don't admit they spend most of their life thinking about Eurovision.
3:58Fraser Nelson is one of those people who's not a secret fan. You actually are. People think you're the man to go to on welfare or the future of the Conservative Party or the future of the Catholic Church. But in fact, Fraser, your number one specialist subject on Mastermind would be Eurovision. It's something I've spent an inordinate amount of my adult life studying. Studying or watching? Both of these things. But if you study the... You can learn more about European politics, watching the voting in Eurovision, than you can by watching a year of European Parliament debates. If you want to see...
4:27Eurovision doesn't just reflect, but anticipates what's happening in politics. Most of the big things we're talking about now, you could point to a Eurovision win, which, if you had asked to see it, would have anticipated what was happening. So I do it for professional reasons and for love. Okay, let's get straight into it, because I know Dean's got very strong views on this as well, which we'll come to. Why is Eurovision not just a creator, but a reflector of profound European trends in terms of politics too, Fraser? Go on. It's a wonderful collision of music, culture and politics. It is where Europe comes together as a continent in search of a common European identity, which itself is something people have been looking for for decades.
5:07And you find that through basically trashy culture, Schlager. If you look at European high culture, opera, ballet, classical music, it's all pretty much the same no matter where you go. When you look at low culture, that's when you see countries' true identities properly come out. And you can see that these small countries, they get to put themselves on the stage, which is the most watched event in the world that isn't a sporting event. So you get 160 million, sometimes more. and you can see these countries like Israel, for example, gets to show a side of itself that isn't about military or the war.
5:42You get to see the avant-garde side of Tel Aviv. You can get to see Turkey in 2003 making its European debut. This was the high point of its European aspirations. It won and that was, you know, the moment that should have been grasped but wasn't. In 2004, when you can see Ukraine's win of Ruslana, you can see this completely new side to Ukraine, this kind of fusion of folk music, of national identity, of European identity. And you could see there what was to very shortly become the Orange Revolution a few months later. So you can look around here and see how countries express themselves. And there is always so much more than just the music.
6:21Did you write about Eurovision at The Spectator? My colleagues urged me not to portray the fundamentally trashy nature of my character. They thought that wasn't a good look for the brand. Well, I'm glad to get the real phrase now, especially on your birthday. Dean, can you just explain from your point of view? I know you spent many years attending Eurovision. We'll talk about the community that comes with it. But why, in your view, does it go beyond being an expression of low culture into something that's actually part of modern European history? Well, I wouldn't call it an expression of low culture.
6:46I think there are a lot of high culture influences on Eurovision as well. This is the biggest cultural event uniting Europeans, even though the European Union has tried to create other events, has tried to also create a European identity, and it's even been influenced by the Eurovision Song Contest. In doing that, Eurovision remains unparalleled in terms of its reach, in terms of its popularity, and it is also Europe's biggest election. In no other event can so many citizens from so many European countries vote for the same candidates. So I think these are the two big things that make Eurovision particularly special.
7:28I don't agree that it anticipates changes. I think it reflects them. And we really have to be more critical towards the lasting political impact that Eurovision can have, because in my research, I've actually shown that Eurovision doesn't always bring about political change, but it certainly reflects them. isn't it also seen by people as an opportunity dean so it's seen by countries as an economic opportunity because it drives tremendous interest you can literally drive eyeballs and therefore advertising and grow a market because there's demand for attention to a particular country and then other countries use it as a form of rebranding so if you look at how austria for instance used eurovision to try and portray an idea of austria which left the 20th century and left the kind of Habsburg dynasties.
8:18That's a real, that's something Eurovision gives countries as well, isn't it, Dean? It does, absolutely. It gives them an opportunity to redefine themselves on the international stage, to reshape international perceptions. And Austria is a great example. I was in Vienna at the time working at the University of Vienna on my book on the history of Eurovision. And I can say that there were debates going on about how Austria should use Eurovision to really changed the way that the world sees it. The victory of the bearded drag queen Conchita Wurst the year before indeed had a major impact on the way that people did see Austria as a more progressive, liberal and inclusive society.
8:58Fraser, why would you say it does anticipate history? Simple patterns. I mean, let's look at Dem Dana's win in 1970. She was competing for Ireland. We are among the geeks here too. I can't compete with you guys. Are you saying, Emma, you'd never heard of all kinds of everything. Go on, does this explain who you're talking about? Right, we're talking about the Eurovision Songkart of 1970, and it's not the singer that has to be off the nationality, it's the song. So, you know, Switzerland could get in Celine Dion, for example. Ireland chose Dana, who was a girl from the Bogside in Northern Ireland, at a time when the Bogside was in flames because of her troubles.
9:31Now, here's this devout Catholic 18-year-old singing about raindrops and roses and whiskers on kittens. Not literally, but, you know, that was her sort of, you know, And there was something about the juxtaposition of her innocence, of her call for peace and love that helped Ireland win in 1970. And when she came back, she was given a hero's welcome to Shannon Airport. There was Eamon de Valera, the president of Ireland, welcoming her because this was a country which was about to join the European Union. And just three years later, it did. So we can see in the kind of sincerity of the appeal and the euphoria of the victory, Ireland getting ready to assert its identity as a European Union member.
10:11Now, let's fast forward to 2006. We've got Finland winning for the first time. That was Hard Rock Hallelujah of Lourdes. You might remember the guys in the monster suits, right? Now, again, this was an absolute turning point in Finland's national identity. Before then, they'd never quite known which side to back in the Cold War. They're sort of neutral, if you like. You know, I think they actually competed in the Intervision, the Soviet equivalent of the Eurovision Song Contest. But here they were, the 45 years of hurt finally ended then, when they won, and it was a big jury vote, by the way. Sorry, a big popular vote.
10:45The juries turned down, but didn't like the guy. So there we have Finland working out that actually it's a Western all along. Fast forward to last year, you see Finland joining NATO. So this process is now complete. Finland is recognising that it cannot be on the fence as a properly Western country. And I think its Eurovision win was a benediction of sorts. There are many others I could go on all out. Dean, the smile on your face has been getting slowly wider. The more you listen to Fraser, the more you realise you're in the company of a fellow Eurovision swat. That's quite a compelling case, isn't it, though, Dean, that Eurovision is European history?
11:17It is. I mean, that's what I wrote my book about. But, for example, Ireland was going to become a member of the European community anyway. It didn't take Dana's win to achieve that. The same for Finland. Finland had a very special place in the Cold War. It was non-aligned, but when it performed in the Intervision Song Contest, for example, the Eastern European equivalent of Eurovision during the Cold War, it was considered the most Western member in the contest. And it certainly benefited from that image. And by the 2007 win, it was already a member of the European Union. So Finland didn't really need to prove its Westernness to anyone.
11:57So I would say that these wins really just reflected processes of Europeanization that were already in place. And if we look at Konkita Wurst, for example, she's another example of how Eurovision doesn't always change things that much or usually doesn't. So she called for same-sex marriage to be recognized in Austria after her win. And Austrian politicians certainly tried to benefit from her victory and supported her in this. But when it came to a vote in the Austrian parliament, the legislation wasn't passed. It took a decision by the Austrian Constitutional Court for same-sex marriage to be adopted in Austria.
12:40Another example is that of Azerbaijan. In 2012, European leaders called for Azerbaijan's hosting of Eurovision in Baku in that year to be an opportunity for Azerbaijan to open up, to increase media freedoms, to improve its human rights record. But since then, we've actually seen these worsen in Azerbaijan. So it really is a question, I think, of how much the Eurovision Song Contest can actually change politics. I would point to another. I don't think Eurovision itself changes history, but it reflects how countries are going. Now, quite often, if you do my day job, Amal's day job, we're listening to what politicians say.
13:20We're listening at Parliament. Now, quite often, these are lagging indicators. Sometimes this is the idea that politics is downstream of culture. Exactly. We're talking several years. Yeah. So if you want to see the way countries are moving, then you look at it. It can be bad and good. I mean, let's take 1978 when you had at the time some Arab countries like Jordan were watching Eurovision. They pulled the plug when they saw Israel about to win that year. So you can see there the idea of a Jewish neighbor winning was too much. So they said technical failure is all going down. and four years later you've got Nicole with a little piece in Germany, one of the greatest ever Eurovision songs.
13:55When Israel gave Germany 12 points, that was a symbol of rapprochement between the two countries, which went on again to basically, I think Nicole went on to record that in Hebrew. So this was a real kind of sign of cultural, a place where hatchets are buried, where entities are declared. But these are things which can sometimes get to the top of what's happening culturally in a way that the newspapers can and politicians can. That's not the case with Israel now, isn't it? Because everyone everywhere is talking about the conflict in the Middle East or has been for some time, and people should know.
14:25So 70 former Eurovision acts have signed this letter calling for Israel to be banned from the song contest because of the situation in Gaza. Israeli fans have been warned by their National Security Council not to wear Jewish or Israeli symbols. And Israel's act, who was at that festival, which was so brutally attacked on October 7th, has been rehearsing her performance whilst there have been huge boos. I mean, there's something sour and pretty sad about the atmosphere around Israel. And in a sense, is there a danger that the low culture gets hijacked by the politics of Israel in this year's Eurovision?
15:00There is always a problem of political infiltration of this. I mean, you had the same of Russia, for example. Russia was booed quite a lot. And then eventually, to my disappointment, banned from participating. Why to your disappointment? Because I think that Russia has got Europhile ambitions I think it was quite sincere. I mean, their acts they put on were some of the best acts ever, the best digital choreography that Eurovision's ever seen that Russia put on. And when Russia won in 2002, Putin at the time said there was a victory for all of Russia. So, you know, there's a soft power of Eurovision and I think we should be encouraging that aspect of Russia which wants to belong to the European family.
15:37There's a good and a bad Russia. And I think by cutting the links and saying, no, you're the enemy, that isn't, I think, the great thing about Eurovision is that it extends cultural links to all over, like to Australia for example. So I would rather that Russia was there trying to compete. And Israel is there now, and you're right of course, it's always been quite political recently. But it's got a pretty good entry and is predicted to come into the top ten. You see, if their headwinds against you, as they were of Russia, that means act has got to be better. And Russia just kept it better and better and better.
16:10And so Gilazarov in his thing was one of the best entries I think there ever been in Eurovision. And the fact that Russia finished so high, despite all of those headwinds, I think was quite a feat. I think Israel's performance this year as well is going to be something to watch. Dean, the boss of the EBU, the European Broadcasting Union, says, it's a chap called Martin Green, and he's the director of Eurovision. He said that the organisers understand the concerns and deeply held views around the current conflict in the Middle East, but that members should make sure the event remains, and I quote, a universal event that promotes connections, diversity and inclusion through music.
16:47Is that just a completely naive and unrealistic prospect? No, it's not. I mean, the European Broadcasting Union tries to keep Eurovision as non-political as possible, tries to keep the contest as unpoliticized as possible because it needs to manage the politics. It's impossible to get rid of the politics, but the politics needs to be controlled, because if the politics gets out of control, then not only do people lose faith in the Eurovision brand, but sponsors also get scared away from the contest. And this is an expensive event to stage. But I should also point out that there's a big difference between Israel and Russia, and that is that there are no international sanctions against Israel, especially sanctions from European countries, whereas Russia was excluded from the contest.
17:34in the context of the sanctions that were placed against Russia by European countries, which make up the huge majority of the membership of the European Broadcasting Union. So the European Broadcasting Union needed to act in that context. It can't act against Israel because the members of the European Broadcasting Union do not set the foreign policies of their countries. So until we see broader sanctions against Israel, which we probably won't, then Israel will stay in Eurovision. And Dean, where you are, I mean, you've been to so many Eurovisions, Dean. Is there a kind of huge, I mean, the audience, by the way, as you said, I think is massive.
18:16It's over 100 million people. And it's very, very hard at any time in history, but particularly in the modern media environment, to get that many eyeballs on a single event. There is a big global fan base, isn't there? What do those fans make of this politicization or, for instance, the controversy over Israel this year? Well, I think a lot of the fans want to keep Eurovision as fun as possible. I think many of them don't want Eurovision to be tainted by politics. But, you know, the politics cannot be avoided. And the European Broadcasting Union also represents the values of freedom of speech, freedom of the media.
18:53Yeah, and it has said that it has nothing against the protests that are taking place against Israel's participation. These are also part of freedom of expression in liberal democratic societies such as Switzerland. So as long as they take place in the legal context, don't become aggressive or threatening to other people who are participating in Eurovision, then they should be allowed. And that's fine. And this is very normal for mega events like this, that protest movements will take advantage of them to draw attention to their causes. I just want to turn finally to the UK and Europe. Fraser, there's this unspoken thing, which is, you know, about the calibre of UK acts.
19:35Now, as a non-aficionado, I can't say I've got an informed view. Does the UK lose for political reasons or for musical ones? It's musical ones. And you don't have to. The thing is, this isn't objective. Dean's nodding for anyone listening to this as a podcast rather than watching us. No, but we always blame politics. Not in agreement. But we should ask ourselves, where does the act chart at home? Sweden is the favourite, right? Now, Sweden hit number one at home. As had Israel. If you look at the top ten most likely to win, all of them have charted very well at home. Ours hasn't charted at all.
20:07If your domestic audience doesn't like the song, why on earth should you think an international audience would like the song? So this is the bottom line. How does that happen? How does that happen? Why does the UK... Because we put no effort into this election. Ours is chosen by Musical Politburo. And four to five guys, no matter how clever. I mean, if you look at Sweden, Sweden had, what, seven or eight semifinals? They had four and a half million people voting for the winning entry. That's more than voted for the government. So this is genuine. Music is not about a committee deciding. That's why the Soviet version of Indivision failed.
20:39Music is about acts, trying it out, see who's got the best choreography, see who captures the zeitgeist. It's about, this is a democratic exercise. And unless you're going to go to the trouble of having an X factor to let the people of a country decide a popular song and choose something which the people of a country actually want to buy, and it hits the charts, you stand zero chance. Dean, is that your explanation for the UK's somewhat poor performance? I agree with Fraser, but I will also add that the United Kingdom has had a disadvantage since the 1990s, since the language rule was changed, allowing countries to sing in any language that they choose, which has meant that most countries have been singing in English since then.
21:20So in a way, the United Kingdom is a victim of its own cultural empire because of the fact that, you know, English has become the lingua franca of the world. And Dean, just tell us a bit about how Eurovision has changed its role post-Brexit because Britain, you know, this is about Britain's relationship with Europe, as part of Europe, but then no longer as part of the EU. Is Eurovision a kind of soft power way of reconnecting Britain with Europe post-Brexit? I think it is. And I think we saw that when the BBC hosted Eurovision in Liverpool in 2023 on behalf of Ukraine. It showed how the United Kingdom was supporting Ukraine in solidarity with other European countries.
22:03This was an event, I would say, that rekindled Britain's romance with the European Union. We even saw European Union flags being waved at the contest. They were not banned then as they were last year. Last year, there was a very broad ban on flags that are not national flags of the countries participating in Eurovision. That has been changed this year. audience members are now allowed to wave flags that are approved in accordance with Swiss law. It's the singers who are not allowed to wave other flags apart from the national flags of the countries that they are representing. So yes, in 2023, we certainly did see a very European side of the United Kingdom.
22:51And I think, yeah, Eurovision is a great stage on which to promote European identity and what different countries share in terms of European-ness, even if they're not members of the European Union. And there are several strong performers in Eurovision that have not joined the EU, including Iceland, which has the largest national audience that follows Eurovision every year. Some 90 % or more of Icelanders watch this. And Australia now. And Australia. Are they mad for Eurovision in Australia? Oh, they are. And that demonstrates that Australia's culture is fundamentally European. But the Americans, they don't get Eurovision.
23:30They can listen to it, but they can't hear it. I mean, that is a problem with America. It's just culturally, it's not the wavelength. I mean, there are some people to whom the word Valare means nothing. And, you know, the world is divided between people who burst into a song when they hear that song, and it leaves them cold. When you say they can... the first Grammy Award in the United States. So it's been the most successful Eurovision song in the United States. And when it comes to Australia, I grew up in Australia. My parents are Croatian and Eurovision was actually popularized by the Southern European migrants in Australia in the 1980s through a national broadcaster that had multilingual programs.
24:08So that's how Eurovision became big in Australia. And it really is an expression of the ties between Australia and Europe. So why do you say that Americans can listen to it but not hear it? And I should say, before you answer that question, when you use that expression, I don't think I've heard that expression since watching the brilliant Wesley Snipes, Woody Harrelson film, White Men Can't Jump, in the 1990s, when Wesley Snipes says that to Woody Harrelson about Jimi Hendrix. He says that being a white guy, basically, he can't jump and he can't hear Jimi Hendrix. That's the last time I've heard that phrase.
Read the full transcript
24:40Why can't Americans hear Eurovision? Because there is a fundamentally European character to this. it's self-deprecating it's cabaret absolutely I mean and this is what unites us as a continent this is one of the reasons why I as a European love this because this is something which we share in which is not universal there's something distinctly European about the gimmicky factor the wacky the weird you know the eccentric Celine on a tractor Conchita's beard all of that stuff right it is now you might remember Amo when Queen tried to break through to American video this I want to break free video with them wandering around hoovering up, dressed up in drag.
25:17Now, the Brits thought this was hilarious. The Americans didn't get it. Now, so that was, Queen sort of died in America. There is such a thing as a European culture or self-deprecating humorous cabaret schlager culture, which that's what's great about Eurovision. It celebrates our European culture, but that is not universal. The Americans will see it as a musical bad taste contest. It would be a great episode of Gogglebox to watch Donald Trump watching Eurovision, wouldn't it? because when you describe the European character there, I think it's somewhat different to Donald Trump. What's your favourite Eurovision moment, Fraser, go on, in all that?
25:51Eurovision moments? Oh, so many to choose from, really. But I would, to be honest, I think it was Katrina, when Love, China, Light won by the biggest margin of Eurovision history. A reminder of it, Britain is so full of musical talent that if we really tried, we could win every single year. Dean, your favourite Eurovision moment? The win by Toto Kutunio in Zagreb in 1990. He sang the first song, which was an ode to European integration in Sieme in 1992. And that came just after the end of the Cold War. It really encapsulated the hopes that Europeans had for a better united future. And it came just before the first multi-party elections in Croatia, which brought to power a government that took Croatia to independence, but also which led to the wars in the former Yugoslavia.
26:42So that was really a key historical moment in Eurovision. And you've got a family connection, of course, as you say, to Croatia. Who's going to win this year, do you think, Dean? Wow, that's always a question I struggle to answer because I'm a historian, not a prophet. Sweden is ranked at the top when it comes to the bookies' favourites, but let's not believe the bookies because last year Croatia was predicted to win. Baby lasagna with Rimtim Tagitim and Switzerland went on to win. So it's good that we don't rely on the bookies predictions now. But Sweden will certainly finish highly. I would also say that Spain is a strong contender.
27:23Austria as well with the operatic elements that are just so impressive when the singer performs them. So they're three to look out for. Fraser, you're married to a Swede. you've got to back to Sweden although she's in Istanbul for your birthday which is slightly alarming but it's a different podcast but yeah who are you going to back? Oh I think having watched the semis I do think Sweden's going to smash it I think a lot of countries have made the classic mistake of trying to copy last year's winner so there's too much kind of coalescing around these kind of like heartfelt hype Sweden has come up with something which is a choreographic masterpiece in my view and remember Eurovision is the world's most drunken electorate but we're talking everybody casting a vote there from Iceland to Tel Aviv are going to be on the sauce all evening.
28:10So fundamentally, what makes you laugh? Sweden is a sort of hymn of praise to the sauna and it's done unusually for the Swedes in Swedish. They've sung in English every year they've been allowed to. But this is actually a bunch of Finns who are singing in Swedish about how great the sauna is. There's something so fundamentally comic about it. It'll be a real palate cleanser and it's just the funniest entry and after enough wine, you're going to vote for it. Do you know what? I feel like I've learned more about European history over the last 50 years, over the last 30 minutes than that, for a very long time.
28:42Fraser, I know you're going to stick around, but for now, Dr. Dean Vuletic in Basel, leading Eurovision historian. Thank you very, very much indeed for joining us, Dean. Thank you to both of you and have a wonderful Eurovision. If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time?
29:23The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
29:37Well, Fraser Nelson is still very much with us. Fraser, I had no idea you knew so much about Eurovision, man. I've got to say, I feel like I've read everything you've done for about the last 20 years. I had no idea Eurovision was such a specialist subject, but I massively, massively enjoyed that conversation. And Dean is a tremendous character. He's taken time out from his busy schedule in Basel following Eurovision. But while you're here, Fraser, I've got to talk to you about how, not long after the local elections. Look, we've got to talk UK politics. One of the things you spent a lot of time doing was understanding the innards of modern British conservatism.
30:09And it's in a bit of a pickle at the moment. The people you still speak to in the Tory party, just give us a sense phrase of the existential crisis or non-crisis that they're thinking about. How bad is it? It's pretty bad. I'd say they're one leadership battle away from collapse. What do you mean by that? Well, right now, if you look at the opinion polls, some of them put reform in 33%. Some of them put the Tories in 20%. I mean, to be behind reform is bad, but to be behind reform by that amount, to have gone through local elections as it did in Kent, where they were replaced wholesale by reform.
30:42This is Kent. This is Kent, excuse me, 50 years ago. Absolute heartland. So this is not your kind of so-called reform, the cliche of the scunthorps and the seaside towns. This is, you know, reform not just doing better than, but supplanting almost wholesale the Conservatives and what should be their homeland. So people are having lots of existential angst thinking, OK, is this worth the candle anymore? So they're broadly speaking, they're split between those who wants to do a deal with reform, perhaps as a junior partner. If you look at the last Morning Common MRP poll, they suggest if a journal election were held tomorrow, reform would be the largest single party, but they could govern in coalition with the Conservatives.
31:22The last time I think we spoke, you were doing this Channel 4 documentary about welfare, which is one of the great, together with poverty, the two are very linked, one of the great abiding passions of your journalistic career. You're now doing another Channel 4 project on reform. What is reform? There's obviously a kind of post-Brexit party, post-UKIP, Nigel Farage machine. But is reform now moving into a stage, maybe this is why Channel 4 commissioned you, moving to a stage where it really is going from being Nigel Farage plus the apparatus of a party to being an actual prospective party of government?
31:53Well, there's so many fascinating things happening. I think Nigel Farage is such a personality that he takes up a lot of the space, which should be spent thinking why people voting for him. Reform are doing well where they've got no apparatus. Reform are doing well in Scotland, where Farage is seen as the ultimate kind of little Englander character. Reform has got a by-election coming up in Scotland early next month in Hamilton. And there was a poll recently saying that Reform are due to be the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament with almost no apparatus. So this is not a great sort of we love Nigel.
32:28This is not Farage has got hold of money and he's got a massive ground operation. The rallies are good. The ground operation is decent. But something is happening, which is not to do with Farage and it's not to do with the activists. It's quite rare in politics that we see this. It's doing very well in Wales at the moment as well. We've got the Welsh elections next year. We're likely to see a reform breakthrough there. So the reason I'm going to do this documentary is to go down to these areas and talk to the voters, try to understand it, to try to see this from the bottom-up perspective, not the top-down, which I think is deceptive.
33:00Well, I hope you write a book about it, because if you do, it might come out a little bit like one of my, you know, one of the books that has helped me understand the modern world more than any other, which is J.D. Vance's Hillbilly Elegy. Exactly. And if you read Hillbilly Elegy, what you really read about is people who suffer the consequences, and I do mean that word suffer, of what Vance would call globalisation and cheap labour. And to the extent that reform is the expression of anything, is it a revolt? It's not just a vehicle for Nigel Farage, but is it a revolt against the fact that in recent decades, globalisation, which means the incoming of rival labour force in terms of immigration, but also the outgoing of jobs to robots and Chinese workers or wherever it might be, has really left a lot of communities, I hate the phrase left behind, but has left them kind of emaciated, frankly, and somewhat hopeless.
33:49Yes, certainly. A good chunk of reform support comes from there. And when you want to find out what are the most reformy areas of the UK, that's typically what you'd look at. The places of high welfare dependency, the places of high poverty, the places who feel that the economic model has been developed and agreed upon by a consensus of politicians who don't really care about them and their prospects. and they want to protest against this, as they did in the Brexit vote. And basically, they were fed up with the Tories. But here's the thing. They don't think Labour is going to improve things. Normally, a new government has a honeymoon.
34:19But if you look at Keir Starmer's approval ratings, they're absolutely tanked faster than any other prime minister other than the List Trust. And so I think the speed at which people are just giving up on Labour means that they're not obviously ready to go back to the Conservatives. So they go for the third option. So there is a large part of that. but it's deceptive to think that's all it is. There is a certain sort of swashbuckling aspect of reform. There are prosperous people. There are young metropolitan people who want to basically think that reform are the most radical option, that they're going to change things.
34:54When you look at it, it's funny when you, like one of the other things I picked up is how many sort of Tory donors are now leaving the Tories and backing reform. Now you think, well, why would you do that if you're establishment? A lot of these donors are entrepreneurs. the kind of risk takers and they kind of see in the reform movement let's roll the dice let's because if you look at the policies they're pretty conservative right they're kind of small state classic liberal now you wonder of course will they come a crunch point when reform will try to win these Red Wall voters and will say hang on a minute don't you want to cut public spending quite a lot you know so but also the movie left on some economic issues like nationalisation of steel right exactly and as right now is not particularly coherent though it doesn't really matter so far from an election exactly But so right now it's mainly a protest.
35:37I didn't like the Tories. I don't think Labour any better. And no, you can't force me to choose between the two of them. Isn't the point that the Conservatives are sort of choosing between a rock and a hard place? If you listen to people like George Osborne or John Major, they will say, you've got to remember as Conservatives that most elections are won in the centre, whatever the centre might be, and that the Conservatives lost a huge number of votes to Liberal Democrats in the last general election. And then there are other people like Robert Jenrick says, look at reform, you've got to worry about it.
36:03So just bluntly, what should the Conservatives do? And can you keep both those wings happy? I think Jenrick represents the future death of the Conservatives when you try to out reform reform. And you can see a situation if they go down the Jenrick route of Farage emerging as the more sort of centrist, acceptable face of Conservative reform. I think that the only thing Kimmy can do is pretty much what she is doing which is to realise that there's nothing she can say or do now that's going to make people more, forgive the Tories for what happened. They can't point to a single thing going wrong now that a Tory wasn't responsible for.
36:40Even if you take Jenrick's so-called sentencing council's two-tier M justice thing, when you look at that, that was proposed under Alex Chalk when he was Tory Justice Secretary he said nothing, Jenrick said nothing, it was publicly aired So right now, the Conservatives cannot plausibly claim to be the solution. That might change in time. But I think the fundamental thing to remember is that there's a difference between the centre ground of politics and what Keith Joseph called the common ground that a good party should share with the public. Usually they're in two different places. The centre ground of Westminster can quite often keep a whole bunch of things off the menu.
37:14For example, I still think on welfare reform and immigration, the political consensus is in the wrong place. I think if the Conservatives spend a lot of time listening to the common ground, their only way back is to come across as the more credible reform party. The party of change, the party of reform, but in a way which is more credible than what Nigel Farage is offering. Because Farage will have to come up with a shadow cabinet. Who's that going to be? And we still don't know, is this a sort of presidential movement for Farage and his party, whatever that party might be, or is this genuinely a party that you need to run a government?
37:50Boris Johnson failed because he was a president, didn't really group, he didn't really put a cabinet together, and they all fell apart. So we've seen what happens if a presidentially minded person tries to run the country. That's the big test for Farage. Is he capable of genuinely putting together a team, given that he's split with one of the, you know, Rupert Lowe, one of his M4Bs. So that will be the test for him. I hope we can go and talk about politics because it's always absolutely riveting. And the fact that you've come in and done it on your birthday means a well to us. So thank you so much.
38:20Really appreciate it. Great to be here. Thank you. That's the end of this episode. The Today Podcast is out every Thursday. To make sure you don't miss future episodes, please just search for us on BBC Sounds and hit subscribe. I'll be back next week. Speak to you then.
39:13If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
From the publisher
Why does Eurovision find itself at the centre of political controversy when it’s supposed to be non-political?
This year, Israel’s participation has been questioned because of its role in the war in Gaza whilst Israeli fans have been warned by their country's National Security Council not to wear Jewish or Israeli symbols while attending Eurovision.
Amol is joined by Times columnist (and Eurovision superfan) Fraser Nelson and Dr Dean Vuletic who is a leading Eurovision historian to discuss the politics of the song contest through the years. (1:39)
Fraser also gives his assessment of the state of Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK after the recent local elections in England. (28:36)
To get Amol and Nick's take on the biggest stories and insights from behind the scenes at the UK's most influential radio news programme make sure you hit subscribe on BBC Sounds. That way you’ll get an alert every time we release a new episode, and you won’t miss our extra bonus episodes either.
GET IN TOUCH: * Send us a message or a voice note via WhatsApp to +44 330 123 4346 * Email today@bbc.co.uk
The Today Podcast is hosted by Amol Rajan and Nick Robinson who are both presenters of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. Amol was the BBC’s media editor for six years and is the former editor of the Independent, he’s also the current presenter of University Challenge. Nick has presented the Today programme since 2015, he was the BBC’s political editor for ten years before that and also previously worked as ITV’s political editor.
This episode was made by Lewis Vickers with Izzy Rowley. Digital production was by Izzy Rowley. The technical producer was James Piper. The editor is Louisa Lewis. The executive producer is Owenna Griffiths.

