In short
Macro-to-crypto setup ahead of Treasury bond buyback results and an upcoming Fed rate decision; chart-based “coiled sideways” bullish signals across major coins; rotation ideas toward tokens tied to fees/revenue and DeFi; several altcoin and meme-coin chart checks.
Guests
Bijan Maleki (host) and Kris Bullock (“BlastoPlast”), a crypto trader/technical analyst who tracks macro catalysts (yields, dollar, liquidity) and uses moving averages and weekly/monthly cycle framing.
Key claims
- Treasury bond buybacks (announced as up to $6B) aim to push 10-year yields down; that would ease financial conditions and likely benefit crypto and gold more than stocks.
- Rate hike odds are ~60%; Bullock says bond-market liquidity is the bigger catalyst than a 25 bps move.
- Bitcoin/ETH/Solana show consolidation with 10/20-day moving averages converging; upside catalyst target is BTC around $83,000, with confirmation needed via weekly closes.
Notable examples
- Solana relative strength (multiple green weeks) vs BTC; Hyperliquid, plus DeFi names like Uniswap (benefiting from Uniswap v4) and Curve.
- ETH vs NDX breakout; ETH vs BTC needs closes above ~0.035 and ~0.042 to confirm reversal.
- Zcash/Monero privacy narrative (Zcash ETF driving all-time highs); NIR tied to encrypted Zcash transactions.
- Meme/speculative picks: Pump.Fun (PUMP) and “Pawns” (Robinhood-style meme exposure); caution on high-risk tokens like Kida.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Updates and Fed Bond Buybacks
0:46 to 2:19
Discussion on recent bond buybacks by the Treasury and market implications.
“So without further ado, Chris, happy Wednesday.”
Analyzing Yield Movements and Crypto Impact
2:20 to 4:28
Exploration of yield movements and their potential effects on various assets.
“So what that means is what we're going to look for, these are 10 and 20 year bonds.”
Crypto Market Setups and Predictions
4:29 to 8:04
Insight into the current setups in the crypto market and future predictions.
“Usually when we see this, it's like coiled for launch.”
Rate Hikes and Market Reactions
8:05 to 10:57
Discussion about potential rate hikes and market expectations.
“Obviously, it's going to depend on, again, how many of those bonds are bought back.”
Four-Year Cycle Expectations
10:58 to 14:00
Analysis of the four-year cycle and its implications for future price movements.
“Let me go back to the Bitcoin chart here.”
Market Predictions and Fed Influence
14:00 to 15:17
Discussion on the impact of the Fed's actions on market trends and predictions for Bitcoin.
“and it sort of comes back down to these big moving averages down here.”
Analyzing the Ethereum Chart
15:17 to 16:57
Examination of recent Ethereum trends and indicators suggesting a potential uptrend.
“You know, not every cycle is exactly, I mean, yes, it has been thus far, but not every cycle has to be, whatever, 36 months up and 47 months down, five.”
Ethereum vs Bitcoin: A Comparative Analysis
16:57 to 19:56
Comparison of Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin, discussing breakout patterns and resistance levels.
“And seeing if ETH is finally time to buy.”
Overview of Canton and Investment Potential
19:56 to 22:10
Analysis of the Canton token's performance and its viability as an investment.
“a whatever, a temporary counter trend rally in a larger downtrend.”
Pump: A Strong Market Performer
22:10 to 24:08
Discussion on the strong performance of the Pump token and its potential as a long-term investment.
“There's not really much of a bid coming from it.”
Show all 21 chapters
Exploring the Pawns Meme Coin
24:11 to 28:00
Analysis of the Pawns meme coin's market position and its speculative nature.
“It had just a bunch of light bulbs going off in my head.”
Market Trends and Analysis
28:00 to 29:17
Discussing the current trends in SWE and NIR cryptocurrencies.
“It's down a little bit on the week, but, um, it's still only like from the, from the close the other week, it's only down about 5 % off of that.”
Zcash and Its Market Position
29:17 to 31:00
Examining Zcash's rise in the market and its marketing strategies.
“cloud here and the cloud itself reversing back to the upside.”
Exploring Privacy Tokens
31:00 to 33:12
Comparing Zcash, Monero, and their positions in the privacy token market.
“That makes me, that makes Nier so much more attractive too after learning that info.”
Kida and Radium Overview
33:12 to 35:46
Analyzing the performance and potential of Kida and Radium.
“Well, yeah, we'll get to that next, But I mean, yeah, shout out to Radium.”
Robinhood's Role in Crypto
35:46 to 37:40
Evaluating Robinhood's performance and its connection to the crypto market.
“I mean, it looks like, you know, it looks like a crypto chart.”
Say and Avalanche Analysis
37:40 to 39:50
Comparing the performance of Say and Avalanche in the current market.
“That's a name I have not heard in months.”
Investment Strategies in Changing Markets
39:50 to 42:01
Discussing strategies for investing in underperforming assets.
“So let's take feels like it feels like the good old days because we're just getting chart after chart after chart of requests.”
Researching Cryptocurrencies
42:01 to 46:21
Learn how to identify promising cryptocurrencies based on market signals.
“you know, top 90 day, top 190 days list and start picking from there.”
Evaluating DeFi Projects
46:22 to 49:20
Discover key indicators for evaluating decentralized finance projects.
“And another two that I think fit into that category in terms of companies that are revising their fee structures and their tokenomics are both Uniswap and curve down.”
Future of DeFi Investments
49:21 to 53:17
Understand which DeFi projects may lead to promising investment opportunities.
“And so a lot of DeFi is going to be good investments.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:07Kris Bullock:Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another edition of Trading the Markets. This is the show where we take your questions live. So if you have any, drop them in the live chat on platform or here on Discord. And we look at the charts and, you know, we just try to see what's going on in the market. I'm Bijan Malecki, and of course, we're joined by Chris Bullock, a.k.a. BlastoPlast. Not as action-packed as we thought it might be today, but hey, that's just what it is in crypto. Some days are crazy, some days are you're waffling, and some days are you wish for the boring days. So without further ado, Chris, happy Wednesday.
0:53Kris Bullock:How are you doing?
0:54Bijan Maleki:Yes, very good. Yeah, kind of like I said, we're sort of the calm before the storm still is, I think, the better way to describe it. One of the things I made the mistake of yesterday when we talked about what we were going to talk about today on yesterday's show, I mentioned the FOMC. And then I realized after the fact that the FOMC isn't until next Wednesday, not today. So I screwed that part up. But the Fed bond buybacks, or I'm sorry, the Treasury bond buybacks, that did get announced today. And if you kind of to recap a little bit, they talked about initially doing$2 billion worth of buybacks.
1:28Bijan Maleki:And then Besant came out and said, maybe we'll do more than two, like maybe four. And so the official announcement actually dropped this morning, which I have here. And they decided to do, oops, they decided to do 6 million, 6 million in buy or billion rather. I'm sorry, billion in bond buybacks. Now, that said, they have the list of the bonds that are going up for sale. Just because they're allocating$6 billion to that does not mean that all$6 billion will be spent or all of those bonds will be bought back. It depends on the price and just if it's a good deal or not, basically. And so tomorrow is the actual auction.
2:10Bijan Maleki:So we have to wait until tomorrow at 1.40 p.m. that's when it starts Eastern time to see what the actual real outcome is. We know it's a maximum of six billion, but the actual reality could end up being a bit less. So what that means is what we're going to look for, these are 10 and 20 year bonds. So we're really going to see what that does to the price of the 10 year yield, which is what I have pulled up here. We want to see this come down. That's really the goal here. We want to see the 10 year yields come down. We want to see like the dollar go down and we want to see just, you know, things start to move in a more favorable direction.
2:47Bijan Maleki:So I'll be looking for that. We'll be looking at the dollar to see what it does here. And I think if both of those can start to go down, that will that will further improve financial conditions and we'll start that will be beneficial for crypto. That will be beneficial for gold, less so for stocks, but still beneficial for stocks. So again, wheels are in motion, good things are likely happening. And then of course, we do have the rate, potential rate hike next week. It's kind of, it's inching into closer to 60 % territory that we do get an actual rate hike next week. But I think the big takeaway from that is, while yes, that is a thing, the liquidity actions that the Fed is taking, that the Federal Reserve is taking on this bond market is actually going to be more impactful in the long run than any rate hike, any 25 basis point rate hike is going to do.
3:47Bijan Maleki:So that's what's really going to make the difference. And so that's what I'm looking for. So that's going to be the big watch in terms of what we're seeing with crypto, what we're seeing with yields, what we're seeing with rate hikes, all of that stuff. So what I want to focus on today is just where is everything at from a crypto standpoint? Because there's a lot of really good setups. Actually, let me go to this chart here. It's a little cleaner. There's a lot of really good setups that I'm seeing where things have coiled sideways. They've consolidated. They've waited for the moving averages to kind of catch up.
4:21Bijan Maleki:Remember, I was like, well, let's see. Let's wait until the 10 day catches up first and see what that looks like. And then it caught up to the 10 day and kept grinding sideways and I said, okay, well Let's see what happens when we get to the 20 day and now across almost across the board pretty much with all of these We've got this similar pattern where it ran up It's consolidated sideways and now we've got both the 10 and the 20 day moving averages Pretty much met up and usually when this happens when we get a setup like this This this pattern here with the the 10 kind of going up and then going sideways and meeting the 20 this is like a really strong signal most of the time.
4:56Bijan Maleki:Usually when we see this, it's like coiled for launch. You know, I like to say, and all it's going to take is a good upside catalyst to have it ripped to a new level. And we know right now that level is that 83 ,000 that we've been looking at this yellow line right here. And so I'm hoping that tomorrow we get these bond buybacks that drops the 10 year yield and we start to see stuff start to move. So, too bad it's not today and we can't talk about it already and it's not happening, but that's what I'm looking for. That's the sort of outcome. That's the pattern I'm seeing. If we look at Bitcoin, it looks like this.
5:31Bijan Maleki:Ethereum looks almost identical, if not arguably a little bit better. But, I mean, again, just perfect sideways consolidation, very little retracement. In this case, the 10 and the 20 are perfectly overlapping and it's ready to go. Solana, very similar, not quite exactly, but I mean, there are thereabouts, you know. So a lot of these look really good. We can go through a bunch of different ones and ones that you guys want to, you know, request to check out, but a lot of them look like this. There has been a few, like if I zoom out to the weekly timeframe, there's been a few that have really outperformed more than most.
6:10Bijan Maleki:Actually, Solana is one of them. And what I'm looking at there is, you know, I go back to this first week we had, this big breakout week. And if we're, you know, if we continue to trend much higher after that big breakout week, that's definitely relative strength compared to the rest of the market. Like, let me go back to Bitcoin here. Bitcoin is like, yes, it's a little bit above it, but not nearly as much as what Solana is. And it kind of stalled out. And arguably, it butted up against the resistance and got rejected at the 83 ,000. So it's more of a sideways consolidation. But when you go back here and look at Solana, Solana's green three weeks in a row, and yes, it's bounced a little bit back down, but just a much stronger signal.
6:51Bijan Maleki:Hyperliquid is another one like that. It's, well, not as good, but Hyperliquid has done it. What was the other one? Was it Curve? No, Curve's been not Curve. Venice, I want to say. Either way, a lot of these look really good. They're a lot better than where they were three weeks ago. So again, I go back to that being the benchmark. Is it above where it was at the close of the weekly candle three weeks ago? If it's above that, I'd say it's a strong contender to rally out of whatever big news we get over the next week, starting tomorrow and then going into next Wednesday when the FOMC meeting is.
7:28Bijan Maleki:So that's kind of the quick and dirty of it. I mean, really, like I said, I'm watching what the dollar index does. we can see that liquidity has continued to run up, which is good. And overall, just financial conditions continue to remain fairly neutral. So I think really it comes down to what the bond market is doing and bond yields. And if those can kind of come off the ledge a little bit, especially the 10-year and the 30-year, if they can start to roll back over, that's going to free up more money. And I think we're going to see it come into gold and we're going to see it come into crypto.
8:00Bijan Maleki:And I think, you know, we're poised to get another leg up. That's my base case. Obviously, it's going to depend on, again, how many of those bonds are bought back. It's going to depend on what Warsh ends up actually doing for the FOMC. So it's a wait and see. But I think, you know, probably better than 50 % chance we get favorable outcomes in both of those, and it results in another leg up. Obviously, I hope I'm not wrong, but that's where I'm at. So I think things generally look pretty good right now.
8:30Kris Bullock:So what happens, so you said, I think you said 60%, the odds are around 60 % for a rate hike, right? What happens if nothing, like no hike, it just stays the same? Does the market like that or because they were pricing in a rate hike and it didn't happen or like what happens there?
8:53Bijan Maleki:So if nothing happens, I default back to what the treasury is doing. And the Treasury is buying back those bonds and injecting kind of more, not injecting liquidity, not like QE, they're not injecting new money into the system, but they're making liquidity available. Let's just say that. They're putting it in the correct channel for it to make its way into the likes of gold and crypto. There's maybe a better way to frame that. That's happening regardless. We already know that's happening based on the announcement that came out today. So if there's no rate hike, we already have the bigger, what I consider to be the bigger bullish catalyst anyway.
9:24Bijan Maleki:way. If we do get a rate hike, then it's like, well, OK, how does the market actually feel about this? Is the bullishness from the Fed action still big enough to outweigh this meager 25 basis point hike that you could argue is largely priced in? And if that's the case and it continues to rip, then I think that's an even stronger signal. I mean, that's telling me that the market says, we don't care about a rate hike. We like this liquidity over here. We're going to continue ripping. And I think that's something that will be sustainable in that context, because that's saying that the market's saying we're on board with basically this plan that is being executed right now.
10:03Bijan Maleki:If there's a rate cut, which I don't expect there to be, I think that will be bullish too. I think, again, really regardless of what happens on the rate side, what the Fed's doing with the bonds is the bigger catalyst. And so just to what degree of a catalyst will be sort of finally signaled by the rate hike side or not. Personally, I think if we get a rate hike and it rallies, then that's like, it's probably, you know, we get a rate hike, it rallies, it closes above 83. I think at that point, it's time to start going in heavier. You know, It's like, okay, we got confirmation. This is the confirmation we're looking for.
10:46Bijan Maleki:We got kind of negative news in terms of a rate hike, but we've got this liquidity coming in over here. And the market said, I'm still going to keep going. And it closes above 83. That's going to cement a new, larger weekly uptrend structure. Let me go back to the Bitcoin chart here. If we can get above here, that will be a significant higher high than we've set back in May. That will start, you know, that will cement a new uptrend. Also, we've got the major moving averages, the 20-week moving averages, the 200-day moving averages in an uptrend. And if we can close above this current resistance level, again, that is structurally a new bull trend on a larger weekly timeframe.
11:25Bijan Maleki:So, yeah, there's a potential here. There's a potential setup for us to get a pretty good confirmation that, like, the bottom is in and it's going to rip for a while. But we're not there yet. We have to wait. I mean, again, we're still just below the surface. we're still just at resistance we're still waiting for those final signals so it's like not time to pile in full on just yet but um i to me again things are moving in the right direction i should say so um just be patient don't get excited don't uh you know don't blow your wad too early but um i i like i like where we're going here i feel like you're talking directly to me on that
12:07Kris Bullock:Chris and it was well received. I need that reminder. So great question here, Lupi. So the four year cycle people, Ben Cowan, Bob Lucas, et cetera, are still expecting a drop lower before October, November. What do you think, Chris?
12:26Bijan Maleki:That's a good question. And I do respect both of those guys and I do kind of see where they're coming from. Let me kind of think about that for a second. So what I'm looking for, Let me I go to this chart here And this is like the weekly this is the monthly like the monthly mega trend the monthly cycle chart if you will This looks at you know, here. We are month 35. We're coming down to month 40 we're on month 46 right now as in terms of the lows like you can see these cycles They go up 35 months down 47 35 40 so we're on month 46 right now month next month would be month 47 that would complete the four-year cycle in the same vein that it has played out the last two or three cycles.
13:12Bijan Maleki:So yes, next month, October is the next month, not September. So we're in month 30 or 46 right now. Next month would be 47. I don't know. I mean, it's like you can make a case for it. I think really what happens is that the more we push up to the upside, the less likely that scenario comes. And even if we do get a drop, I don't know that I see a new low coming in. I think a new low is very likely off the table at this point. I think it would be more like we kind of, let me kind of just, you know, draw something out here. It would be something more like, I don't know, we break up through here, we get a consolidation, maybe it just hovers around here, maybe then it loses this level, and it sort of comes back down to these big moving averages down here.
14:06Bijan Maleki:So like, you know, these guys right here. So like the support level around the high 60s. So something like that, I could rationalize. That makes sense to me. But I don't see us like breaking down, you know, into the 50s or lower at this point. I think that that's, the odds are very, very low at that point of something like that happening. So, and really, it's just going to kind of come down to what the Fed's doing with the buybacks and what worse is doing. Because a lot of this stuff is really, it's been in flux and is moving a lot and has influenced a lot based on the Iran stuff, the inflation stuff, based off the price of oil, things like that.
14:46Bijan Maleki:It's very just in flux right now. And what the Fed is doing and what the Federal Reserve is doing and the Treasury is doing rather to kind of combat things and to kind of whatever, assert themselves and manipulate things, if you will, will dictate what happens in the markets. And so it's unpredictable. And in that case, sure, I can make a case that maybe something happens and it does drop back down. But I don't think it has to happen just because we've got another month left in the cycle. Like, to me, that's not a good enough reason. You know, not every cycle is exactly, I mean, yes, it has been thus far, but not every cycle has to be, whatever, 36 months up and 47 months down, five.
15:31Bijan Maleki:You know, it's just how it's happened to have played out. So, I mean, looking at this, we're arguably in the start of a new cycle already based off of this oscillator. If we can close above the megatrend here this month and then push above it again next month, it's going to flip it green. and then I think it's just kind of off to the races. So I don't think it's by any means a sure bet that we get another drop between now and then. Yeah, I mean, it's possible, but I don't think it's likely, I should say.
16:06Kris Bullock:All right, thanks for the question, Loopy. Chris, let's head over to the ETH chart because Jamie just the other day, it could have been yesterday even, I don't know, the days are piling together right now, but Jamie released a note saying that ETH has woken up and he charted the ETH NDX and noted that that one has been dead since 2022, but that it just broke the line, the trend, and that the last time it did so, ETH had its best run in its history against tech. So wanted to kind of see what you're seeing on the chart with, you know, some of your indicators as well. And seeing if ETH is finally time to buy.
17:01Bijan Maleki:Yeah, let's look at ETH. ETH does look good. I agree. Here it is against the NDX. And yes, it has broken out of a longer term trend. I want to look at it just against USD pair also, and then I want to look at it against Bitcoin too. But yeah, I mean, it looks good. I like the fact that last, or two weeks ago, so this big rally candle was the DMARC8 on the weekly, and then the next one, obviously, DMARC9, it cemented that, and really it's up since then. So it's kind of fading this DMARC9, which is a really strong signal. The fact that it didn't really correct and roll over, and usually a DMARC on a weekly timeframe tends to be a pretty strong signal.
17:43Bijan Maleki:It's not very often that you see things run up into the 13 category on the sequential and the combo. So the fact that it's kind of fading this nine like it didn't happen is really strong to me. Excuse me. But let's look at it against Bitcoin. Because there's also something to talk about here. I've pointed this out a lot, this chart you guys will have seen, where I argue that ETH was winning against Bitcoin basically right up until they switched to a proof of stake blockchain. And then literally on that same week, it's just been down only against Bitcoin. And then once they did this other upgrade that favored layer twos even more so in terms of fees, it dropped even more precipitously before finally kind of meme reverting and just catching back up to the larger downtrend.
18:31Bijan Maleki:But if we look, if we kind of zoom in on what's going on right now, I got to give it credit where it's due. I mean, it's technically breaking out of this trend on this weekly timeframe. It's not huge yet. It's not going on and setting new higher highs. I mean, well, it did kind of eclipse this first high here. Let me highlight this. So it did eclipse this high. It flipped it to support, but it's got lots more to go. I mean, it's got to get this next one here. And then, of course, this next one here. So it's got several layers of like higher highs that it needs to achieve against Bitcoin to really be like, okay, this whole structure here that I've got mapped out is no longer valid.
19:17Bijan Maleki:I can consider this done and ETH has moved on and broken out of this thing. But until we start closing above, say like this 035 level and then this 042 level, I'm going to say that Bitcoin is still the better bet. However, like I said, we're in the start of a breakout. Like we are in a reversal pattern to be sure, this is completely valid. These are big signals on weekly timeframes and it has broken out and it has broken the first level of horizontal resistance here. So yeah, I mean, it's the start of something. It could be the start of something big and it's something to keep a close eye on. We want it, but it needs to keep going to really know that it's not just kind of a, a whatever, a temporary counter trend rally in a larger downtrend.
20:04Bijan Maleki:It's still a little bit in that category. It's like I said, it's broken through the first level, but it's got a little ways to go before I can rule that scenario out.
20:17Kris Bullock:Shree wants you to take a look at Canton, Chris.
20:23Bijan Maleki:Let's look at Canton.
20:29Bijan Maleki:Yeah, it's funny. I had high hopes for Canton here. It was doing really well. I think that this was more the product of insider selling or rather like validators selling to pay for operations and things like that. This wasn't so much like a sentiment breakdown. And it did bounce, you know, off of the big rally that we had a few weeks ago. But unfortunately, unlike everything else that bounced, it's given up most of that back. So not a great look, honestly. And I don't like, too, that it kind of got rejected right at its big 10-week moving average either. It didn't really reclaim any important levels off of that rally.
21:11Bijan Maleki:Instead, it got rejected by them and has rolled back over. So I don't know. It's tricky with Canton because it's such a, it's so kind of opaque and by design, but like it's hard to tell what's actually going on there, how much business is really happening, sort of who's doing what there, you know, like the people that are inside that ecosystem, they're benefiting from it tremendously. They're using it, but in terms of like the Canton token itself being a good investment for outsiders, that has yet to be, you know, deemed the case, I guess you could say. So we don't know on Canton. It's kind of a wait and see.
21:51Bijan Maleki:It could just be one of those things where Canton is great if you're sort of in that ecosystem. system, but if you're just an outsider wanting to buy the token and hope that the value goes up because of whatever reason, I think we need to sit on that and wait and see what the market actually wants to do here. Because right now the market's telling us that that's not the case. There's not really much of a bid coming from it. So that's, yeah, that's what I would do there.
22:18Kris Bullock:All right, let's switch gears to a very different coin. Aiden wants you to take a look at Pump.
22:24Bijan Maleki:Yeah, Pump looks really good. I love the fact that it's bouncing here. I mean, yeah, it bounced more than most. I remember calling this out, you know, last on the last show we did, this went up 96 % off of the back of that big candle. And so I was like, I'm not surprised that it's going to come back down a bit and correct a bit, which it did. But I liked that it held steady. And this week, it's up 18 % when honestly, the rest of the crypto market isn't up 18 % this week. Like it's outpacing the market on the rebound and it's up a lot this week. There's only a couple others that are having really strong like double digit weeks so far.
23:00Bijan Maleki:Everything else is just kind of consolidating and sort of rebounding like I talked about with, you know, Ethereum and Solana and Bitcoin and stuff earlier. There's a couple that are ripping and Pump is one of them. Near is one of them, too, which we can get into in a second. But yeah, so I like what I'm seeing here. I've talked about them before. They're making money. They're sometimes they're they're neck and neck with Hyperliquid in terms of weekly revenue. So they're they're absolutely in the mix as as something that, you know, I think warrants long term hold consideration. They're they're not just like a fad flash in the pan thing, especially with the the meme coin space itself looking very excitable right now.
Read the full transcript
23:41Bijan Maleki:You know, I think Pump.Fun is going to be right front and center in in all of that. And so, yeah, I absolutely.
23:50Kris Bullock:So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. All right. Well, that was an exciting chart to talk about there. It had just a bunch of light bulbs going off in my head. Yeah. Yeah. Sonic's let's stick with the meme stuff. Sonic wants us to look at pawns, which is the meme coin of the hour. These days it is the bell of the ball. Hold on.
24:29Bijan Maleki:I know I got a better chart here. Maybe.
24:43Kris Bullock:I could type.
24:48Kris Bullock:Pins.
24:55Bijan Maleki:I need to bookmark. I need to bookmark a really solid chart for pawns because I can never find... Does it run on a... Hold on. Does it run on a dex?
25:14and ponds for those watching is and correct me if i'm wrong but it's the robin hood version of pump
25:25Bijan Maleki:yes it is um i can't really i'm trying to find a really good chart for it and struggling so far all right let me just go back to that first one i did um and we'll go with that That was MEXC, I believe. Yeah, so, I mean, okay.
25:43Bijan Maleki:Yeah, it's like pump. I mean, like you said, clearly it's doing well. And we know Robinhood has been kind of the place, the casino over the last two or three weeks where all the action is. I remember we looked at it kind of three weeks ago. We looked at a few Robinhood coins and they weren't really doing much at the time, but they've kind of blown up since then. and there was that whole sort of phenomenon with the tokens being created and then the liquidity pools being created with tokenized, matching tokenized stocks to try and capture some of that. Yeah, I mean, Pawns is benefiting from all of that too.
26:19Bijan Maleki:So obviously this is something that's very speculative, very high risk. This is like, if you want to be, if you want to play in the DGEN space, Pawns is the name of the game. I think Pump is definitely a safer, less volatile play in that regard. But yeah, Pawns probably is going to be one of those things that people who are lucky and or brave will potentially make quite a bit of money. But you could also lose quite a bit of money. so yeah like manage your risk accordingly if you want to play in the pawns slash Robin Hood meme coin space that's kind of like lunch money only type situation there but yeah pawns looks great obviously it's ripping and probably will continue to oh yeah deck screener good call meat bag I'll pull that up next time I'll have that ready for next time
27:21Kris Bullock:meat bag what a name what a name all right let's uh let's head on over to uh i know everyone's gonna ask so let's check up on uh sweet yeah um sweet has respectably recovered uh a little bit
27:45Bijan Maleki:I would say. So again, credit where it's due. Like this was ugly initially when it had the, it had the run up and then immediately gave, you know, two thirds of it back or whatever. I was like, uh, cringe a little bit, but, uh, you know, nice recovery back above the 10 week moving average. It's down a little bit on the week, but, um, it's still only like from the, from the close the other week, it's only down about 5 % off of that. So I'll take that. You know, that's good enough for me. That's a good, respectable rebound off of this initial sort of breakdown. I don't love the fact that the volume has kind of, I guess, you know, petered out a little bit, however you want to say it.
28:30Bijan Maleki:Since then, I'd like to see the volume coming, you know, remaining strong. Was it pump? I've looked at one of these, or hyperliquid or near one of these. One of these where the volume just continued to rip. Maybe it was hyperliquid. No. Well, whatever. Anyway, I digress. Yeah, so SWE looks better. Looks better than it could. I still would like to see it above the bull market support band here, which it's not. Most of the stuff that I'm like, yeah, this is solid. It's in an uptrend. This is a good buy are above this bull market support band and have flipped it to the upside. And SWE hasn't quite got there yet.
29:05Bijan Maleki:It's still below it. And the band itself is still, it's really technically pointed to the downside. It hasn't even quite leveled off yet. So ultimately for me to be more bullish on SWEET, I need to see it above this cloud here and the cloud itself reversing back to the upside. We need to see an uptrend. We're not in an uptrend yet. We're still just kind of fighting against the bottom of this downtrend. So show me an uptrend and I'll be happy with that.
29:34Kris Bullock:You mentioned near as well. So I think now Yeah, NIR is another one that's obviously doing well.
29:40Bijan Maleki:NIR is benefiting from Zcash, which I'll get to next, because those two are kind of tied together in that NIR is the only blockchain, I mean, outside of Zcash itself, I guess. NIR is the only other blockchain where you can do native protected, encrypted NIR transactions with the native token. And so it's benefiting. People are trading Zcash on NIR and the token price is going up. So that's, I mean, that's kind of the bottom line. But that's great, I'll take it. I mean, we know Nier is doing all kinds of other cool stuff with agentic traffic and infrastructure and things like that. So Nier is going to benefit from the AI side of things, from the agentic AI side of things, which I love, which I talk about on the AI show all the time.
30:26Bijan Maleki:So Nier is in that conversation, but Nier is also in the Zcash conversation, which is cool because a lot of people don't necessarily want to buy Zcash or maybe they can't buy Zcash depending on which jurisdiction they're in or which exchange they use or because Zcash sort of brings scrutiny to you and so you can get exposure to Zcash indirectly through NIR. So NIR is a good play for that and it's benefiting accordingly. I mean this is a great chart you know obviously it's way above where it closed off of that big rally, you know, two, three weeks ago. So Nier is in the mix for sure.
31:04Kris Bullock:That makes me, that makes Nier so much more attractive too after learning that info. Yeah, and then here's Zcash.
31:10Bijan Maleki:I mean, Zcash of course is ripping too. Zcash is at all time highs because they have an ETF that launched and they're ripping too. Zcash for what it's worth has very good marketing and very good KOLs that like get people involved. And so even if you just want to invest in it because of that, regardless of if you think it's good tech or you even want to use the tech, just know that they have a marketing machine and it is playing out in the token price. And so if that's enough of a reason to invest in it in itself.
31:44Kris Bullock:Aiden wants to know, do you think Zcash could be the next Bitcoin? No. Technically the more private version of Bitcoin.
31:53Bijan Maleki:Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's going to take over Bitcoin because there's lots of entities that can't use it and can't transact with it for regulatory compliance reasons and things like that. And so for that reason, it'll never be as broad based as Bitcoin is. But will it be the sort of de facto go to privacy token ecosystem? Quite possibly. Yeah, though I wouldn't fade Monero either. I mean, Monero is, it's not, the price isn't as high, but Monero also has been ripping as of late. I mean, it's arguably in a better uptrend structurally than Zcash is. Now, it's not like at all-time highs, but over the long run, Monero has been a grinder too and has done really well.
32:38Bijan Maleki:And some even argue Monero is slightly better from the tech side, which is, I mean, that's a whole different conversation that I'm not going to get into. but like Monero is a competitive, a legitimate competitor to Zcash and shouldn't be ignored is all I'm saying.
32:57Kris Bullock:Oh, Valor doesn't want you to do it, but also wants you to do it. Can you check out?
33:06Bijan Maleki:I saw Radium actually. Yeah. Radium looked pretty good. It was Kida, but let's stick on Radium. Cause that was a question. Oh, sorry. Sorry. Okay. Yeah. Sorry. Well, yeah, we'll get to that next, But I mean, yeah, shout out to Radium. I don't know what's going on there. But yes, I mean, huge rally two weeks ago, 66%. So we had a nice break. It basically traded sideways during the retrace week and then ripped another 66%, which is way better than even the 25 % that it did in the initial breakout week. So, and then it's still up again this week. So like, I need to, I mean, I have some idea. just because I know Solana is doing well.
33:48Bijan Maleki:We know meme coins in general are doing well. Some of the, you know, some of the Robin Hood stuff is leaking over into what's going on on Solana. So Solana has been a beneficiary. Solana has done well, not surprised to see Radium do well. So yes, now let's get back to... Kida, definitely. Kida, was that it? Yeah, yeah, Kida. I'm pretty sure I actually removed Kida from my watch list recently because... Um, let's see the...
34:22Bijan Maleki:Oh my god. Yeah, I know I've got... Hold on. I know there's another chart that has more... I know why I didn't want you to look at it now. Is it Kraken maybe? Well, all right, let's just do the crypto one. I won't have value. We can see the full chart history. Okay. Yeah, no. I mean, I don't know what happened with this project. It had promise. You know, this was like its speculative bounce based off of its promise, you know, when it initially launched out of the gate back in 2025. And then it never was able to kind of deliver on that promise yet. I don't know. Definitely not something I'd be buying, though.
35:06I mean, it hasn't even proven that it can't break away from setting lower lows yet.
35:11Bijan Maleki:So it continues to just set lower lows. So I wouldn't, I would, this would be like at the bottom of my list.
35:20Kris Bullock:Yeah, absolutely. You know, cause even when the mark, I can't see right too well on this chart, but even when the rest of the market was pumping, Kida didn't even barely did anything, barely registered anything.
35:36Bijan Maleki:I'd rather be holding, you know, cough, cough, BSV than Kida right now.
35:45Bijan Maleki:Bitcoin Satoshi's vision, you know.
35:50Kris Bullock:Anyway. Oh, Valor, I'm sorry. It's just a hold in now. Okay. Where was that next question? Can we take a look at Robinhood?
36:02Bijan Maleki:Yes.
36:03Kris Bullock:Yes, we can.
36:05Bijan Maleki:We looked at Robinhood last week. I know it was doing well. I haven't looked at it since then. I mean, it looks like, you know, it looks like a crypto chart. So here was that run up again two weeks ago, and it's way above it. So yeah, it's like, yes, it's down on the week right now. For what's it? What is it on the daily here? Let me just see. Let's kind of look at it on the day for a second. A bit of a wobble the last couple of days. But yeah, I mean, it's doing incredibly well based off of what's going on with all the on-chain stuff. It's benefiting clearly from that. So like if we look, I just hold on.
36:46Bijan Maleki:I just want to see what the gains were since the bottom of this rally here up to. Yeah, I mean, it's up 22 percent basically since that big, you know, since Besson came out on that day and did the announcement and crypto and everything rallied. It's up 22 percent. So it's almost trading like a crypto. There's a lot of cryptos that are up around 22%, 25 % or more. And Robinhood is right there in that same mix. So yeah, this is, I think, a perfectly viable way to gain exposure to what's going on in crypto right now. Because Robinhood is at the center of what's going on in crypto right now. And clearly their stock is benefiting from it.
37:28Bijan Maleki:So if you've got a brokerage account sitting there, you know, and you don't want to move it over to crypto, you can get exposure to it that way if you want.
37:37Kris Bullock:Yeah. IJScom wants us to look at Say. That's a name I have not heard in months.
37:53Bijan Maleki:Yeah, man, it looks like it looks like Kida a lot, really, you know.
38:00Bijan Maleki:No bueno. I mean, well, here, let me, to be fair, to be fair, okay, here's what I see. It caught the bounce, which is good. It caught the bounce like everything else. Retraced is higher than the weekly close from the bounce. So that is a constructive setup. What I don't like about it, though, is if you look here, the ones that I think are really doing good are the ones that, like, we're already well into a bottoming pattern before this breakout. Like, let's just quickly compare it to Ethereum. Like, Ethereum was already had bottomed. It was cruising along. It was, you know, making higher highs.
38:43Bijan Maleki:And then it got the breakout and it really kind of cemented the reversal. Whereas we have other ones like XRP, for example, which is very similar to say, where it was not really even close to bottoming. It was still setting lower lows and then it got this big, big sort of rip and rally out of nowhere because of the outside factors. And so it's like saying I wasn't really bottoming. I was still in a downtrend, but now I'm kind of not, you know. And so like that's what I see with Say. I was still in a downtrend and this didn't even bounce nearly as much as like XRP did. It just kind of caught the wave that everything else did.
39:23Bijan Maleki:and it's holding it and it's okay looking, but I would have liked to have seen more of a bottoming pattern already, like predating this bump here to know that the market was already kind of aware of say and we're already starting to look to bid it. It's like there was no bid prior to this rally that we had and that's what concerns me more than anything.
39:50Kris Bullock:Well said, yeah. All right. So let's take feels like it feels like the good old days because we're just getting chart after chart after chart of requests. And last time we've got that many requests, Bitcoin was over one hundred thousand. So it feels good. And Chris, while we're taking this walk down memory lane, why don't we take a look at Avalanche? because that's one that I have literally no idea what's going on there, but it had its moment a year or two ago where it was really, you know, all the talk. Oops.
40:30Bijan Maleki:Avax.
40:31Kris Bullock:Yeah.
40:36Bijan Maleki:I agree. Avax was the play for a minute. And it's funny, too, kind of just looking back at sort of this past, you know, four-year cycle. It did okay. It didn't go on and set a new all-time high like some stuff did. Certainly didn't go on and set an all-time high against Bitcoin, but it did okay. And it's really bled out since then. So here's kind of what we're looking at. To be fair, it was starting to set a little bit more of a bottoming pattern, unlike the say chart we just looked at. It had sort of leveled off. It caught a nice bid. It is above where it closed a few weeks ago. It is technically above this bull market support band.
41:20Bijan Maleki:However, the band itself hasn't reversed yet back to the upside. So it doesn't quite have as much strength as some of the other stuff, but it's also tracking with the rest of the market. It was just like it was kind of that much worse off to begin with that it needed to go a little bit further to kind of cement the reversal. It hasn't quite got there yet, but it's looking okay. It's looking better than some, not as bad as others, or not as good as others, but better than some. So yeah, I don't know that I would feel comfortable throwing money at it yet. Like, I mean, definitely there's, I could pick through 20.
42:00Bijan Maleki:I mean, just go to that coin market cap, you know, top 90 day, top 190 days list and start picking from there. And I can assure you, AVAX isn't going to be on that list. I mean, that's where I'd at least start my research in terms of what's looking good right now. What are, what are people paying attention to? You know, that's always the best place to kind of start your research. And yeah, maybe one day AVAX will make it back onto that list, but it's not, it's not there yet. So yeah.
42:30Kris Bullock:Okay. Oh, Valor, this is a great question here. So, um, not token specific, but with bottoming signals happening on a lot of assets, what's your advice on those of us holding bags and things that are underperforming, not financial advice, of course, but would you recommend swapping to things that have better signals or just keep with conviction in progress? Rotation seems like an impossible game.
42:55Bijan Maleki:yeah i mean that's that's always tricky and there's never there's no there's no like right answer for that you know because basically i could tell you yeah swap them you know that swap them all day long and then the next day they they go on some rip and i look like an idiot um you know or vice versa and so you know there's a couple different ways you can play it you can you can start to rotate some out you can do 50 50 that way you're still in it and you can take some of that money and put it into some of the other stuff that's doing well. That way you're sort of hedged, I guess, or covered for either scenario is a way you can do that.
43:34Bijan Maleki:But really, like, what the market is doing right now, I think is a strong signal. It's not very common that something that has just been down, down, down only for like months and months or even years is suddenly out of nowhere just going to catch some magic bid and make up all that that it's lost. I mean, just that doesn't happen very often, you know. And so things generally go down for a reason. And unless some, you know, it's like winning the lottery for some catalyst to come back along and kind of reverse all of that. So it's generally, you know, I feel stronger in like picking something that actually has the attention of the market because the market price is king, you know, price tells all.
44:23Bijan Maleki:And if people are buying something, they're buying it for a reason. And that's, you know, probably why you should be buying it too, you know. And conversely, if they're not buying it, they're probably not buying it for a reason. And so it's just, I don't know, that's kind of a long winded answer to say, I can't tell you exactly what to do, but that go with what the market is telling you. And if something is moving, it's probably moving because, you know, there's a reason for it. Yeah. Like also like, you know,
44:58Kris Bullock:if I'm holding something that looks like the Keto chart, for example, I think that one's a lot easier to just cut and get out of because it's, again, it's really shown you nothing. And like Chris said, it's, it's not going to catch a bit out of nowhere. And if it does, like, what the fuck, right? It's not like it was just so, so random. But I think the market has also been giving us a very clear sign. And if we've been paying attention and reading the tea leaves, it's been telling us what's going to do well. And it's things that have have those tokenomics that, you know, bring fees directly to the token as opposed to the treasury.
45:37Kris Bullock:It's protocols that are generating real revenue and not just generating revenue based off of speculative bids like, you know, look at Hype and Near and Pump.Fun, you know, tokens like that as well. And then I'll even go a step further, too, because Solana and Ethereum and even Near have also gotten the message and they've, you know, you know, they're putting in tighter policy on their tokenomics. and NIRS and Ethereum's are already live and Solana's has been approved and is going to go live soon too. So I think all of these things kind of can give you a good idea of what you should cut and what you should actually be in going forward.
46:21So hope that helps.
46:22Kris Bullock:Agreed.
46:23Bijan Maleki:Very well said. And another two that I think fit into that category in terms of companies that are revising their fee structures and their tokenomics are both Uniswap and curve down. Uniswap is hugely benefiting from it. So Uniswap has a new kind of V4 version out that is also benefiting a lot from Robinhood because Robinhood is all trading on Uniswap V4 basically. But V4 basically allows liquidity providers to really like programmatically fine tune how they allocate liquidity like in a very automated programmatic way. They can just set like, they can write bots that like move little pockets of liquidity all over to capture maximum yield, basically, from their liquidity providing.
47:08Bijan Maleki:And people are doing this. And so Uniswap has really, I mean, it almost never left, but it's at the top of the heap, basically, in terms of DEXs. Like, yeah, Jupiter and Radium made a run for it. But like Uniswap kind of is the king of DEXs. It's the OG. And they've continued to evolve and mature their product and refine it. and there's so much liquidity on there and any EVM chain basically is accessing it and it's doing very well. And it is accruing value back to the token holders too, keep that in mind. So you can see Uniswap has done tremendously well. I mean, look, here was the big week back here, this candle here, and it's just two more huge weeks in a row.
47:51Bijan Maleki:Like, yeah, it caught a little bit of a rejection here, but massive, massive rally from Uniswap. It's done exceptionally well. And it's ground zero for everything that's going on with Robinhood right now. And then the other one is CurveDAO, which also I've talked about CurveDAO on my crypto portfolio, model portfolio reports, because I just added it to the model portfolio and have gone into great detail as to why it's doing well. And it, too, has revised a lot of their structure and has gained a lot, you know, has doubled sort of their usage in certain areas in recent weeks, too. And it, too, is benefiting well from that.
48:26Bijan Maleki:And we're seeing, you know, this is what I'm talking about when I see the bull market support band needs to reverse back to the upside. And we need to see price continuing to rip above it. This, this is textbook reversal that I'm looking for that I think is this is a good bet. You know, whereas those ones where it's still underside this or the band is still kind of flat. It's like, don't even don't bother with that. There's a there's 100 names out there where the chart looks like this. Don't mess around with the stuff that's just pointed straight down. Like that, you know, the signs are there.
49:01Bijan Maleki:So, yeah. And a lot of it is DeFi. A lot of it is DeFi because it has that, it sort of very much lends itself to big product market fit, big real world use case, lots of fee generation, you know, all of the stuff that you just talked about that we talk about every week. Like DeFi is very much kind of like the perfect sort of structure for that. And so a lot of DeFi is going to be good investments.
49:29Kris Bullock:That's nice. Yeah. So just to tie in a bow on Ovalor's question, because as we were commenting, he said RIP SWE then. And like, listen, Ovalor, you're not going to, you'll be hard to press to find a bigger or at one point a bigger SWE bull than myself. But like just looking at Nier right now and knowing that Nier is also, you know, built itself to capitalize on the agentic economy, just like SWE. But then you tie in the Zcash play or Zcash, you know, tie in that Nier has combined with their updated tokenomics and their burns. like how do i not even like swap my suite for that which is basically just a different expression of of that same thesis that i have about the agentic economy but also adds more to it that i just said about that that we just talked about with the tokenomics so got some thinking to do oh valor so maybe you and i can discuss in the discord a little bit later um i think all right sorry go
50:39Bijan Maleki:I think with SWE, because of their nature, because they're designed to be so cheap and their fees so low, it's never going to be like the same as like Ethereum, for example. You're not going to sort of benefit as directly by holding the Ethereum token as you would the SWE token. I think where SWE is going to benefit or where you're going to be able to leverage the most from that is some protocol that comes along that launches on SWE that sort of captures that agentic revenue, you know, and generates cash. It's going to be more of a protocol, like a software side, application layer side of things than the network token itself.
51:17Bijan Maleki:So I think that's what I'm looking for with SWE is some new thing that launches on SWE that blows up from the agentic side, makes a ton of money, something like a hyperliquid, for example, in terms of like it's raking in cash, doing agentic whatever. and then people are like, oh, hey, that happens to be on SWE. Maybe that's where I want to go. And then developers are like, hey, I can do that too. And it starts the sort of flywheel effect where more developers want to go build on SWE because that's where this action is happening now. So I think whatever rebound happens on SWE is going to come more from the application layer side of things than from the network itself creating some framework for people to build on.
52:05Kris Bullock:Yeah. Okay, let's take Falfrosh's question here. This will be the last one. Syrup.
52:13Bijan Maleki:Yeah, Syrup. Let's see. Syrup looks good too. I figured it would even before I pulled it up. I mean, Syrup's right in there too in terms of a DeFi platform that's making money, that's doing all the things that we talk about. And what do you know? It's up. So So yeah, I think Syrup is going to do well. Morpho, I think, is another one that's obviously doing very well. I've talked about Morpho in the past. And yes, it's down off the back of that big rally, but it's already been in a mega uptrend way, way back, starting at the beginning of the year. So Morpho is one. Syrup is one. Aerodrome is going to be one that's already kind of in an uptrend too.
52:54Bijan Maleki:So I would say, if you're looking for places to put money, start by looking at the DeFi sector as a whole. I think that's going to be one of the more promising sectors going forward. Now, not every one of them is going to go to the moon necessarily. So you're still going to have to do your own research. But I would say if you started just by looking at DeFi and going from there, you'd probably do pretty well.
53:21Kris Bullock:Yeah, absolutely. All right, guys, that'll do it for this week's edition of Trading the Markets. We will, of course, be back next week. We're going to be joined by Chamber of X, who is going to, you know, come on, talk some trades with us and talk some options and talk his ripple. So until then, guys, don't fuck this up. And let's continue the conversation in the Discord. Have a great week, everyone. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future.
54:08Kris Bullock:So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join.
From the publisher
Bitcoin and crypto are tightening into key technical setups as the Treasury prepares up to $6 billion in bond buybacks. Bijan Maleki and Kris Bullock break down the catalyst, the $83K level that matters most, and which crypto sectors are showing the strongest momentum. Plus, they dig into the sectors showing the most relative strength, including DeFi, meme coins, NEAR, PUMP, Uniswap, Curve, Morpho, and more. They discuss why real revenue, token value accrual, and product-market fit are becoming increasingly important in deciding what’s worth owning.
👉 Have a question for Kris? Join the live show every Wednesday at 1pm ET in the RV Discord. Register here: https://discord.gg/FTQsrUhD9Z.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Trading the Markets: Crypto Coils for Its Next Move
01:14 - Treasury Announces $6 Billion Bond Buyback
04:11 - Bitcoin, Ethereum & Solana Look Coiled for a Breakout
06:03 - Solana & Hyperliquid Show Relative Strength
08:31 - Fed Rate Hike: What Would It Mean for Crypto?
10:56 - Bitcoin at $83K: The Bull Market Confirmation to Watch
12:27 - Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Is Another Drop Coming?
16:08 - Ethereum Breaks Out: Is ETH Finally a Buy?
20:24 - Canton Struggles as the Token Loses Momentum
22:19 - PUMP Outperforms as Meme Coins Heat Up
25:09 - PONZ & the Robinhood Meme Coin Trade
27:20 - Sui, NEAR & Zcash: Which Crypto Looks Strongest?
32:49 - Raydium Rips as Solana Gains Momentum
35:49 - Robinhood Stock: A New Way to Play Crypto
42:14 - Should You Dump Weak Altcoins for Market Leaders?
46:07 - Uniswap & Curve Lead the DeFi Reversal
51:49 - DeFi Opportunities: Syrup, Morpho & Aerodrome
#bitcoin #crypto #btc #ethereum #altcoins #cryptocurrency #cryptomarket #cryptotrading #bitcoinprice #treasury #liquidity #bonds #interestrates #macro #trading #investing #defi #realvision
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