Earnings Schedule Heats Up as Fed Meeting Starts

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, January 27th. After the week began with new trade and government shutdown worries, focus may shift back to the Federal Reserve meeting starting today and a parade of earnings. About 20 % of all S &P 500 firms report this week, crowding the calendar with corporate news that might quiet the relentless drumbeat of geopolitics. The S &P 500 index on Monday posted its highest close in nearly two weeks after falling two weeks in a row for the first time since last April. A trickle of earnings reports yesterday quickly will become a fountain today as UnitedHealth, Boeing, Union Pacific, United Parcel Service and General Motors report this morning followed by Texas Instruments this afternoon.

1:10By the end of Thursday, investors will have heard from four of the Magnificent Seven as Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, and Meta platforms share results. Capital spending is likely front and center as Microsoft and Meta report, and investors may want to see Goldilocks capital spending on the data center build-out that's not too hot or too cold. Last quarter, Meta and some other firms like Oracle caused concern with heavier-than-expected outlays. By the time the last mega-cap reports this week, the Fed decision will also be out of the way. Market participants widely expect the Fed to stand pat in what could be the last meeting where Fed Jerome Powell presides without a chosen successor in the wings.

1:55An announcement could come soon, as Powell's term ends in May. One thing he might get asked tomorrow is whether he intends to stay at the Fed after his chairmanship ends, something he's hinted at.

2:11Aside from Powell's future and his outlook on the rate path, this week's Fed gathering seems like more of a placeholder. As of late Monday, chances of a rate cut were less than 3%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Recent economic data, including yesterday's delayed November durable goods report, mainly looked solid. Meanwhile, weakness in the dollar could add to inflation worries after little sign of progress over returning price growth toward the Fed's 2 % goal. The dollar fell to four-month lows yesterday, possibly reflecting concerns about the falling Japanese yen, Bloomberg reported. There's speculation that the U.S.

2:51might unite with Japan to support the yen, pushing the dollar down more. Coordinated intervention to support the yen is rare, but volatility has been focused on currency markets, said Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, adding that the Bank of Japan and Japan's Ministry of Finance have tools to step in and calm markets if necessary. In addition, the dollar has suffered from so-called debasement trade, in which investors retreat from currencies and treasuries. As Bloomberg also noted, fears of heavy fiscal spending helped send the Japanese bond market spinning lower last week, touching off selling in U.S.

3:35treasuries that briefly sent the U.S. 10-year note yield to 4.3 percent. It fell the last few days but remains above its near-term 4 % to 4.2 % range. Volatility in the Treasury market can drive uncertainty and push some investors into the perceived safety of metals. Gold and silver keep forging new record highs. One way to gauge investor interest in U.S. assets is demand for Treasuries. Monday featured a two-year Treasury note auction and demand was strong, Briefing.com said, helping bring yields down across the curve. Today features a five-year auction. The yield climb last week also reflected international and domestic tension that surged again over the weekend.

4:22The U.S. and Iran have traded threats recently, sending shares of energy firms higher along with oil. President Trump threatened 100 % tariffs on Canada if Canada makes a trade deal with China. And the U.S. government could shut down partially late Friday. Senate Democrats are now expecting to block passage of a six-bill funding package because it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, or DHS. And Democrats want some restrictions on immigration and customs enforcement or ICE agents as part of a revised bill. But even if a deal is worked out this week to, for example, have the Senate pass the other five bills, which include funding for the Pentagon, the Labor Department, and half-dozen other Cabinet agencies separately from the Homeland Security bill, a revised package would have to go back to the House, said Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Schwab.

5:21But the House is in recess until February 2nd. That makes a partial government shutdown at the end of this week increasingly likely. A shutdown could delay the release of inflation data, jobs reports, and other economic information, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is one of the agencies dependent on this massive bill passing Congress before Friday's deadline. A jobs report due February 6th would be among the first major reports possibly delayed, unless Congress can find a way to quickly pivot when the House returns earlier that week. Boeing and General Motors are among earnings highlights this morning, with Boeing up around 10 % year-to-date.

6:04Shares rallied thanks to growing orders for aircraft and the Trump administration's call for higher defense spending. Analysts expect solid annual sales growth from a year ago when Boeing reports. With General Motors, analysts expect double-digit top-line growth. GM posted a 5.5 % annual sales increase in 2025, but margins remain a concern due partly to tariffs. Data is light this week, but today includes the Conference Board's January Consumer Confidence at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, along with December new home sales. For consumer confidence, the briefing.com consensus is 90.0, historically light, but an improvement from 89.1 in December.

6:50Concerns about the Labor Department helped drag December's reading, so investors might want to get a sense of how much that continued as the new year began. In data yesterday, November durable goods orders rose 5.3 percent month over month, following a 2.6 percent drop in October. Excluding transportation, durable orders climbed 0.5 percent, better than the 0.3 percent briefing.com consensus. And the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now fourth-quarter gross domestic product, or GDP, forecast remained at 5.4 percent. Major indexes climbed Monday, and a pattern changed from previous sessions. Mega caps, including Apple, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Microsoft, performed well, but declining shares led advancers slightly by midday.

7:39The weaker breadth suggests participants piled into mega caps ahead of earnings from many of these firms, but sectors like utilities and materials also did well. Materials flexed more muscle as gold and silver prices continued their sizzling rallies, while utilities climbed in part on outages caused by the winter storm. Energy shares started off strongly Monday as natural gas prices surged due to widespread U.S. chill but couldn't hold gains. The consumer discretionary sector slumped on weakness in Tesla, which reports tomorrow after the close. Tesla appeared hurt by news of a senior manufacturing director leaving the company.

8:21Volatility eased late Monday after early gains, but at above 16, the SIBO volatility index isn't back to recent lows. Volatility is subdued up front, but not under the surface, where institutions have been adding hedges amid macro uncertainty. That said, most S &P 500 sectors climbed Monday, possibly reflecting hopes for solid Magnificent 7 earnings and ideas that geopolitical bumps might be starting to smooth. A call between President Trump and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz announced Monday possibly eased some of the market's worry over domestic tensions, Barron's reported. An individual trading Monday, Booz Allen plunged more than 8 % Monday after the Treasury Department canceled contracts with a consulting firm.

9:13CoreWeave jumped 6 % after NVIDIA and CoreWeave announced they'd expanded their relationship to enable CoreWeave to accelerate the build-out of more than 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030. Apple climbed 3 % for its best session since October as shares received a price target increase from JPMorgan Chase, which sees a positive setup for shares heading into earnings this week. And U.S. Rare Earth ripped 6 % higher, and other mining stocks also rose on news that U.S. Rare Earth entered into a non-binding letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to$1.6 billion in Chips and Science Act of 2022 support.

9:58U.S. Rare Earth also raised$1.5 billion in private capital.

10:06The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 313.69 points Monday, or 0.64 percent, to 49 ,412.40. The S &P 500 index added 34.62 points, or 0.50%, to 6 ,950.23. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 100.11 points, or 0.43%, to 23 ,601.36. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

11:04For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.