PPI Data, Big Bank Results, Retail Sales Line Up

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, January 14th. After yesterday's relatively cool December Consumer Price Index, or CPI, investors await this morning's Producer Price Index, or PPI, before the open, along with a deluge of big bank earnings. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup are among the highlights, after JPMorgan Chase generally disappointed the market despite better-than-expected results Tuesday. Producer prices track the wholesale market and can be a canary in the coal mine for what consumers will pay in the future. For today's PPI, due at 8.30 a.m.

0:59ET, investors expect 0.2 % December price growth for both headline and core, the latter of which doesn't contain volatile food and energy prices. Whatever the numbers say, comparisons to previous months are likely to be murky and may not be fully trusted by investors. October and November data collection was affected by the government shutdown, putting those numbers in doubt. Retail sales for November are also at 8.30 a.m. ET, and consensus is for a solid 0.4 % rise after no gain in October. Again, results could come under more scrutiny than usual due to the shutdown. Retail earnings over the next month could add more color to the government numbers, especially regarding holiday shopping.

1:46Amazon, a major retailer, is expected to report early next month with big-box stores following in mid-February.

1:57A 0.3 % rise in December CPI reported Tuesday was in line with consensus, while core CPI growth of 0.2 % excluding food and energy came in slightly below analysts' thinking. On an annual basis, CPI rose 2.7%, also meeting expectations, and core growth of 2.6 % was the lowest since 2021. The month-over-month CPI numbers were better than expected, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. It's a bit of a mixed bag because of the government shutdown, so there are distortions that the market will have to sort through. Diving into those, shelter and energy costs contributed most to the monthly increase, with shelter up far more than expected, while used car and truck prices fell, Howard noted.

2:50Between PPI and retail sales, odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut could be worth monitoring this morning. The chance of a cut this month fell to near zero despite the mild CPI readings at around 3 percent according to the CME FedWatch tool. Most market participants still expect the Fed to cut at least twice this year with better than 70 percent chances of a downward move by the Fed's June meeting, but far lower chances any time before that. The Fed itself only projects a single rate cut in 2026. Long-term Treasury yields are up over the last few months, despite three rate cuts between September and December, and some Fed officials said they want to give those cuts a chance to work their way through the economy before making any more moves.

3:38The Fed's Beige Book, due at 2 p.m. Eastern time today, offers a look at economic trends across Fed districts and may provide fresh clues into what Fed policymakers are focused on. New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday that monetary policy is well-positioned, the Wall Street Journal reported, closer to a neutral level that won't hold back the economy and requires less need for rate cuts in the near future. geopolitics remained in focus tuesday as unrest in iran raised concerns about its oil exports raising the price of u.s crude oil to a two-month high above 60 dollars per barrel that's still relatively low versus the average price of the last few decades however back home the supreme court plans to issue a new batch of decisions today increasing speculation that the case on Trump's tariffs could get a ruling.

4:33A decision against Trump could trigger a massive and complicated refund process for about$150 billion in tariffs paid to date. The rest of the week features some of the largest Wall Street firms as well as smaller regional ones. As results come in, investors will likely focus on credit availability and loan demand, both of which have seemed strong recently by several measures. JPMorgan Chase's trading operations looked solid in the fourth quarter, raising expectations for similar performance from other banks with big trading operations. The company exceeded earnings and revenue expectations, but recorded a one-time charge it had announced previously, reflecting its takeover of the Apple Card loan portfolio from Goldman Sachs, which affected unadjusted earnings per share.

5:23That interest income, an important element for banks, rose 4 % in the fourth quarter to top Wall Street's estimates. Each line of business performed well, said Jamie Dimon, CEO in the company's news release. The only miss was from investment banking revenue, which fell 5 % year-over-year. It's rare for J.P. Morgan to miss on this metric, and investors now will look to see if other big banks struggled in that category as well. Such an outcome would likely surprise investors, considering the much-improved initial public offering and merger environment over the last few months as interest rates fell and the regulatory burden seemed on a path toward easing.

6:04JPMorgan shares tumbled 4 percent after reported results hurting shares of other major banks as well. In other data yesterday, new home sales for September and October improved from the summer months on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, the Department of Commerce said. Medium prices fell 3.3 percent in October, the second straight month of price drops. Housing market weakness might drag earnings results from some of the banks reporting in coming days, especially regional ones more exposed to mortgage demand. Major indexes mostly pulled back yesterday amid weakness in the banks, though the S &P 500 equal weight index that weighs all components the same rather than by market capitalization gained slightly and forged new all-time highs.

6:53As a group, semiconductor shares rose with NVIDIA, Advanced Microdevices, and Intel all-posting gains. Both Intel and AMD got upgraded by KeyBank, which said it sees outsized data center demand from hyperscalers. Energy firms tied to data center development, including GE Vernova and Nucor, both shared strength with chip firms Tuesday. Market breadth still looks constructive, with 69 % of S &P 500 stocks above their respective 50-day moving averages and 65 % above their 200-day as of midday Tuesday. Sector breadth shows materials, industrials, communications, and financials doing best year-to-date, more evidence that strength goes beyond mega-cap tech.

7:45Checking the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, the S &P 500 weighs in at 63 on an uptrend but not yet hitting overbought levels near 70. The S &P 500's Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, is above zero at 43, indicating possible upward momentum. Silver and Bitcoin both climbed again Tuesday, and Bitcoin neared recent highs near$95 ,000. shares related to crypto performed well. All this suggests decent risk tolerance. At the same time, there was some buying in the Treasury market after the mild CPI report. Treasury yields slipped two basis points to 4.17 % for the benchmark 10-year note Tuesday.

8:31The Treasury Department saw solid demand for its$22 billion 30-year bond auction Tuesday. Briefing.com noted another bond market tailwind. Despite index weakness, 7 of 11 S &P sectors climbed Tuesday as financials dove 1.85 % and likely led to the index-level losses. Energy led as oil prices rose, and consumer staples had another solid outing, up 1%, possibly a sign of some investors dipping into more defensive areas. Utilities and real estate also defensive rose too. Checking individual performances Tuesday, Delta Airlines dropped 2.4 percent despite the company reporting quarterly earnings per share that beat Wall Street's estimates.

9:18Revenue was near expectations, but the midpoint of the carrier's full-year 2026 profit forecast came up short of estimates, Bloomberg noted. Also, Delta expects free cash flow of$3 billion to$4 billion, below the$4.6 billion it took in last year. Demand for premium seating stayed strong in the fourth quarter, and the company expects double-digit growth in corporate travel in the first part of 2026. Boeing rose 2 % Tuesday on news that outsold Airbus in new aircraft orders last year and on a large order from Delta for 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets. It was Delta's first-ever purchase of that model, Bloomberg reported, and could signal the airline's optimism for international travel demand.

10:09Salesforce fell Tuesday as software names generally struggled. Healthcare firm Moderna posted a 17 % gain Tuesday, possibly signaling institutional accumulation amid an improving technical outlook for shares, Barron's noted. Arm Holdings fell 3 % Tuesday after receiving a downgrade to neutral from buy at Bank of America. Global smartphone units could decline low single digits year-over-year versus up low single digits in 2025 on increased memory costs and supply constraints, the analysts noted. And Intel gained 7 % Tuesday to new highs for this volatile stock following an upgrade by KeyBank to overweight from sector weight.

10:57The company is largely sold out of server central processing units in 2026, the analyst told investors in a research note. The firm expects outsized data-centered demand from hyperscalers this year to be a significant tailwind for Intel's data center and AI revenue.

11:18The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 398.21 points Tuesday, or 0.80%, to 49 ,191.99. The S &P 500 Index shed 13.53 points, or 0.19%, to 6 ,963.74. And the NASDAQ Composite lost 24.03 points or 0.10 % to 23 ,709.87. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

12:17For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.