Tariff Deadline On Hand as Treasury Auctions Loom

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, August 7th. It's deadline day on trade for more than 70 countries facing elevated U.S. import tariffs. Perhaps looming larger is next Tuesday's self-imposed Trump administration date for China and the U.S. to come to terms. President Trump hasn't hinted if he plans a 90-day extension, an idea floated last week by his top economic advisors. If tariffs on China snap back, it would likely form a hurdle for the market's long rally and potentially raise U.S.

0:53inflation and slow economic growth. A lot rides on next week's July inflation data after the jobs report and June's Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, price index sent conflicting signals a week ago. Inflation keeps inching up while the economy hints at a slowdown. The jobs report was one aspect of slower growth, but so were soft ISM readings on the manufacturing and services economies Friday and Tuesday. If inflation topped expectations again last month, it could put the Fed in a tough place as the September meeting approaches. Right now, the market sees high odds of a rate cut, but it's been here before only to step back as data gets in the way.

1:37Chances for a September rate cut reached 95 % by late Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That's up from 65 % a week ago before the jobs report.

1:51Treasury yields inched up for longer-dated notes, but fell for shorter-term ones after a 10-year note auction Wednesday saw relatively light demand. The 10-year yield remained just above 4.2 % late Wednesday, near one-month lows. The auction action continues today with the Treasury offering four-week bills, eight-week bills, and 30-year bonds. The amount of debt on offer will be around$100 billion. Though the size is extremely large, demand might also be strong with yields topping 4%, well above the average dividend yield offered by S &P 500 stocks. The auction could compete with trade policy for attention.

2:31even before today's tariff deadline. The Trump administration raised tariffs on India to 50 % in response to its purchases of Russian crude, according to media reports. And although the administration recently hinted China could get 90 days beyond August 12th to come to terms, it's not official yet. China is likely to get an extension, said Michelle Gibley, Director of International Research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. In corporate news, several major firms reported solid quarters yesterday. McDonald's saw U.S. same-store sales, which track sales as stores open a year or more, rise 2.5%, a rebound after the previous quarter showed a big drop in that category.

3:16Various promotions helped expand check sizes. While Disney beat analysts' earnings consensus and raised its guidance, a slight revenue miss appeared to hurt shares amid challenges in its conventional TV networks and sports programming, Bloomberg noted. The experiences sector that includes cruises and theme parks looked solid, and Disney raised its streaming guidance. Uber's earnings per share matched Wall Street's expectations, and revenue exceeded them. Gross bookings rose 17 % year-over-year. In an interview on CNBC, the company's CEO said he's not seeing weakness in the consumer. Apple, meanwhile, enjoyed its best day since May with gains of more than 5 % after it announced plans to invest another$100 billion in the U.S.

4:07on top of$500 billion it's already announced. CEO Tim Cook, who was expected to attend a White House event yesterday, tied to the announcement, and investors responded with relief that Cook and Trump appear to be repairing their relationship, Barron's noted. Apple reported strong earnings last week, but shares backtracked following the results. At the same time, tech had its midweek laggards, including chip giant advanced microdevices, which plunged following slower data center growth last quarter that analysts said put it further behind segment leader NVIDIA. Super Microcomputer also plunged yesterday following a drop in its margin and what analysts called disappointing guidance.

4:52NVIDIA, meanwhile, still trades near all-time highs, and CNBC reported Wednesday that CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump. Overall, tech finished mid-pack yesterday, but might have been farther back without Apple's help. One concerning trend is the recent slide in market breadth, a good measure of how widespread buying or selling is. The percentage of S &P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages has fallen steeply since late last month when it reached around 75%. Now it's barely 50%. Generally, it's a healthy market when a wider number of stocks climb the ladder, not just a few heavily capitalized names.

5:34Recently, the top 10 names in the S &P 500 accounted for about 40 % of the index's value. With a minor setback recently, driven by the weak jobs report, one key to watch moving forward will be the response in breadth, said Kevin Gordon, director and senior investment strategist at Schwab. If the next leg higher is powered by the mega caps and dominated by the AI CapEx spend, the market could face more challenging conditions heading into the end of the year. Yesterday was light from a data perspective, but today brings weekly U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims. The weekly readings have fallen near their 2025 lows, down near 220 ,000 in recent weeks, but continuing claims remain near three-year highs of around 1.95 million.

6:24Layoffs appear to remain light, but hiring has slowed the data show. Other data worth watching is July used car prices, a bellwether for inflation. They rose 1.6 % month over month in June and 6.3 % year over year. Major indexes revived Wednesday after Tuesday's spill, but it wasn't an extremely broad rally as five of 11 S &P 500 sectors lost ground. The worst performers were energy and health care as crude oil fell to its lowest level since early June on the recent output hike by OPEC and its allies. Health giant Eli Lilly slid into its earnings report, though consensus is for a 42.9 % year-over-year increase in earnings per share, according to FactSet.

7:11Though Lilly's obesity and diabetes sales might top the list of issues for investors, the company's progress with a drug for Alzheimer's disease is also worth watching Briefing.com said. Consumer discretionary, Staples, and Infotech led all sectors yesterday amid strength from Amazon and Tesla, as well as Apple's gains. Walmart also had a solid day, though news seemed thin. Shares of the discount retailer are approaching their all-time highs from earlier this year, ahead of earnings later this month. From a technical standpoint, yesterday looked solid on the charts as the S &P 500 index bounced off a support level at 6 ,300 and finished above its 20-day moving average, a long-term trend line now at 6 ,315 that's held most of the summer.

8:04The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 81.38 points Wednesday or 0.18 percent of 44 ,193.12. The S &P 500 index climbed 45.87 points or 0.73 percent to 6 ,345.06. And the NASDAQ Composite rose 252.87 points or 1.21 percent to 21 ,169.42. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

9:01For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.