Brian Armstrong: “Capitalism Lifts Everyone Up”

25:06So what we've tried to really do at Coinbase is just diversify our suite of products to include everything. Right. So if just recently, I mean, we've been seeing some of the largest IPOs in history start to come to market. And the AI companies, I think, have really eaten up a lot of the risk capital in the world. Right. That actually might be part of the reason why Bitcoin is down, actually, because people are just trying to get as much of their risk capital into SpaceX opening ion anthropic right now. And so from a Coinbase point of view, we're like, great, if that's what people want to trade.

25:37Guess what? We have pre IPO perps. Right. We're going to you can get exposure to these things before they go live. And then once they're live and trading, we're going to have tokenized equities and traditional equities. People can trade these as well. So, you know, long term, I'm still super bullish on Bitcoin. I think that I'm hoping we hit the bottom at 60K or so, and it seems to be trending back up now. But yeah, some of these AI companies go public, and I think the risk capital will start to shift around a bit more, and the market structure legislation might help as well. I mean, to your point, we are seeing trillion-dollar IPOs.

26:10That has not happened before. When I talked to Vlad Tenev, I mean, he really wanted to democratize access to these companies because all of the upside was happening on the private side, not where you traditionally get it on the public. So with these, like, how are you first, are you actually seeing people transfer their crypto into these pre-IPO perp? Yeah. So we launched with SpaceX a few weeks ago before they went public and we saw quite a lot of volume on there. And I think to your point about democratizing access, this is a very important point, right? You know, retail really didn't get access to a lot of these private companies as they were going up in value.

26:55I think we can change that with things like pre-IPO perps. I think that the accredited investor laws really need to get updated in this country. So for people who don't know what that is, to invest in private companies, you have to become an accredited investor, which basically means you have a certain net worth or income that's quite high. And the intention behind this was good. And they're essentially trying to protect people from high-risk investments or scams. But you have to judge these policies not by their intention, but by the results. And the results have been quite bad. it, essentially it's like, it makes it so only rich people can get richer.

27:35It's like the most regressive tax. Like typically we want to have a progressive tax system, you know, rich people pay more. In this case, it totally benefits rich people who can make more money in the private markets. And once something is valued at a trillion, then only then can retail trade it. It's completely unfair. And so the better way to do it would be a financial literacy test. So it doesn't matter if you're rich or you're poor, like if, you know, if there's a concern about scams, pass a financial literacy test, and then you could trade it in the private market. So that's the kind of thing that, you know, maybe once market structure is done, I'll get a chance to go talk with the Senate about.

28:09I'm sure that'll be fun. Yeah. Yeah. I think, honestly, I think there'd be support on both sides of the aisle for that. It just, yeah, it'd be good for Americans. To go back to the everything exchange, it does seem like every fintech and financial service company is trying to be the financial super app. So why does Coinbase win? Yeah. Well, you're right. I think lots of people now are starting to integrate crypto trading, for instance. It's actually, you know, even though this idea is something a lot of people are talking about, the execution on it is really not there from almost anybody. I think we're actually leading now on this, where you can get access to, you know, millions of crypto assets, including like DEX trading support that we added.

28:55You can trade every stock out there in the world pretty much for your IPO perps. You can trade commodities. You can do prediction markets. So I would say like this, you know, even like getting these approvals in the US, we were the first for these perpetual style futures and things like that for crypto and options trading. We're the first company to do that. I don't think any other company in the US has gotten that yet. So there's a number of things where we've been first. And so doing it all in one product with high trust, where we're storing more crypto than any other company in the world. And we have this kind of deep crypto native expertise.

29:35Those are our strengths. Lots of people are going to try this. Our job is just to be out there in the front. We've gone pretty far and we haven't really talked about AI that much. So I want to talk about it. You talked about your agents, but there was a tweet that you put out that got over 24 million views, it went really viral. I'm going to just share a little bit of it for the audience and then we'll just link it. But you essentially said that Coinbase is rebuilding around intelligence. And so what does that mean and why that path forward? Yeah, well, it's interesting. When I talk to our board members or even interns that have come into Coinbase, they all tell me this is one of the top few AI-enabled companies in the world.

30:16All companies right now are trying to figure out how to leverage AI. And I think Coinbase is really on the frontier of this. So we've done that in a couple of different ways. One is we're using it to improve both the quantity and quality of code that we ship. The amount of code being shipped per developer is up about 2x year over year. But believe it or not, you know, there's actually, like if the average developer is shipping maybe like eight pull requests a week, the top few engineers are doing like 100 pull requests a week. So there's, there's this actually like a true outlier effect of these like super builders that have become super AI enabled.

30:54And we're essentially taking those folks and using them to train the rest of the engineering team just to keep driving that number up. And then, yeah, I think, like, another thing we've been doing is we've actually been changing the traditional team size, right? Traditionally, in tech companies, you'd have like a team of a pod of 10, right? There'd be like one product manager, one designer, eight engineers, something like that. And we're now seeing these teams that are like two to four people. In some cases, we're seeing a one person team. Really? Yeah. Because they're using 10 AI agents along with the one human.

31:28And so on many of these teams, we now have AI agents as collaborators in the Slack channel. You know, you can talk to them. They're creating pull requests. They're And there's actually about 1 ,200 full-time agents working at Coinbase now. Yeah, we try to basically estimate it because you can spin up an agent for five minutes and shut it down. But if you look at it as how much time AI agents are working compared to like a typical 40 to 60 hour work week. Yeah, it's about 1 ,200 full-time agents now work at Coinbase. And that's what's allowing us to get this productivity with higher quality, I should mention.

32:11We're actually seeing like the rate of bugs and incidents go down per line of code shipped. And so it's driving up quality while driving up the quantity as well. I mean, there's mass hysteria for jobs right now. Yeah. How much of that do you think is rational versus like irrational? I mean, like, clearly speaking, organizations will be rebuilt around AI and technology and agents and token maxing for some. But like, what do you think the future organization would realistically kind of take shape? Like if you were starting a company today. Yeah. So I think that the average team size will be smaller, but that just means companies can do more things.

33:01and so I don't actually I'm in the camp of people who don't think AI is going to actually cause high unemployment I think that employment will be about the same I think that work will be optional in some sense like in the longer term that doesn't mean I think most people will actually choose to work on something it just might feel a little bit different like you know right now you're a podcaster and I'm a CEO going and talking to people on stage like 100 years ago this would not have been considered real work you know like real work is like digging a ditch in a field with like most of the people in the U.S.

33:32economy working in agriculture, very, very manual labor, like 100 years ago. And we don't have to do that anymore. So this is what we call work. I think that in the future, that's people are going to still going to work on all kinds of things, but it may not be what we would consider work in some of like, so AI is going to eliminate tasks and toil, it's not going to eliminate jobs, in my view. And by the way, you reminded me of something else on your prior question about how we're shaping Coinbase. One of the next big things we're reaching for to get in place is recursive self-improvement, right?

34:05So we're actually using our apps to collect feedback from customers, whether that's bugs they're encountering or even new feature requests. And we're using AI to aggregate all of this input from customers. And then the next set of agents actually take those priorities. They go plan it out. They draft the code and the pull requests. And then a human being can literally just sit there every day and say, okay, here's like the hundred things that we heard from customers. AI went and implemented them. You can do a code review. You can say approve, approve, approve, approve. And like one person is just reviewing a hundred changes and improvements that went out.

34:44And the next day the AI collects another set of 10 ,000 pieces of input from customers. So the closer we can get to this self-recursive self-improvement loop, I think we're going to see really dramatic gains. Are you having fun with all of this? Oh yeah. I mean, AI is making everything exciting right now. I think we're living in a golden age and, you know, it's part of the really exciting thing is we get to go build the financial infrastructure for this agentic economy. You know, I mean, most people I think today think of AI as like, oh, I just talked to one agent at a time and maybe I ask it a question about my investment account or something.

35:20But in the future, you're increasingly going to talk to one agent. That agent is going to orchestrate hundreds of thousands of other agents. It's going to pay for goods and services with companies that it needs to engage with to get work done on your behalf. And so we need a new financial infrastructure for that that can do very small amounts, very frequent amounts, where every AI agent can actually have its own financial account that doesn't have to go through like a typical, you know, AI agents don't have like a piece of government issued paper with their identity and they can't fill out a CAPTCHA and all these things.

35:57So they're going to need a new way to pay and have a financial account. And that's what we've built at Coinbase. How are you staying on top of everything? Max Levchin said that he's reading research papers. I interviewed Sebastian from Klarna. he's vibe coding and going on demos most of the time. Like how are you staying on track of everything on top of all the regulatory hot takes for crypto? Yeah. Well, I mean, I have started writing some code again, um, using AI agents. I test out the tools every few months, make sure I can ship a few pull requests and like still get in, get in the weeds. But the other thing that I'm doing is, um, I'm really just kind of taking, we have some of the best tech talent in the world.

36:40and some of these folks are, I just go around and talk to all different teams. Some of them are creating this, a brain for their team where all the context of that team is getting updated continuously. So every time like a new lesson appears, whether from an A-B test or a customer feedback or an incident happens or anything like that, it's like the collective knowledge of that team just keeps getting updated in the brain of that team, right, in GitHub. Usually these are in Markdown files. And we're going to start to do that on more and more teams. And eventually you're going to have it be the intelligence of the whole company coming together, like the aggregate of all of these different team pieces of knowledge.

37:22Right. And that's what allows like the agents to get smarter when they go build the next feature. And you have to it's like a shift in mindset where, you know, let's say that it creates a draft pull request for some new feature. and it's not quite perfect, your instinct typically would be to go in there and actually edit the pull request to make it better. But what you want to do is actually update the context, the brain that generated it and say, okay, when you make one of these, do it in this slightly different way. Don't forget about this. This is important. And have it rerun itself and generate a brand new one.

37:57And only when it one shots it perfectly, then do you ship it. Because now you've encoded like the thing that it missed in the brain for all future teammates and all future pull requests. And so it's a slight shift in how teams need to think about building the recursive self-improvement of that brain over time and not just editing the work of the AI itself. So I was just in Paris and I was visiting Alex from Deal. He says he loves you and that you're a great customer. But he was really curious how you split roles with Emily. Well, Emily Choi, yeah, she's the president and COO at Coinbase for anybody who doesn't know.

38:35And I'd say she and I are a really great complement because, you know, a lot of value gets created in companies. I think when you have like founder energy and like a really strong operator, if you have only founder energy, you know, sometimes it's a little erratic and things go wrong. If you have only operators, I think you can have a very well run company, but it might be more incremental or not have as much innovation. And Emily and I can honestly we can each do both, but we like to play to our strengths. And so, yeah, we really had kind of like a second founding moment with Coinbase because Coinbase got co-founded with Fred Urson, who's still on the board.

39:10And he's like hugely responsible for the early success of Coinbase. And we had a second founding moment, I think, with Emily. And that's what's allowed Coinbase to generate a ton of value. She's also just like a talent magnet. I mean, she's really great at just recruiting the best people in the world to all kinds of different functions we have. She seems like a total badass. She is. She seems pretty cool. Yeah, I think she's the best operator in the industry. We also just saw Kat. And so, like, how, okay, this is a fair question on the whole AI lens of things. AI has, like, a horrible brand right now.

39:43People are very pessimistic against it. You built a company in a highly regulated, speculative environment, but have made it legitimate and trusted and cool. And, like, by the way, your marketing still crushes. I think I tweeted this out months ago because you guys did the Super Bowl ad, which was super fun. And then you did the earnings calls, which had the subway racer kind of things, which were really fun. So how would you take what AI is kind of branded as today? And what would you change about that and the storytelling around it? One thing I kind of learned over time was don't apologize for what you're doing.

40:23right it's like have a have an opinion about the world how and how you're improving it and what you want to see the future and there's going to be lots of people out there with their own agendas they're going to try to build their own status by trying to tear you down i think the ai companies um they've been a little bit like first there's too much fear-mongering right like this is going to take everyone's jobs and you should come regulate us and i i don't think that's helpful or necessary. And then I think that, you know, if I were in their shoes, I would just be a little bit more unapologetic about it.

40:58Like, look, we're building this because we think it's going to be an incredible benefit to humanity. And everyone can have their own AI tutor. Like, you can have a good mentor, you can have a therapist, you can have a better doctor. Like, you know, and it's for anybody sitting there saying that, well, you know, this, I already have a great doctor, I would never use an AI. It's like, well, that's, you're sitting there from a position of privilege. Like many people in the world don't have the best access to the best doctors of the world. And like these AI agents are going to create a world of abundance.

41:29And so we're going forward. And, you know, if you don't like the product, you don't have to use it. Right. It's like, it's literally that simple. So that's the world that that's like the approach that I would probably take. And I think at Coinbase, there's many times where we had to really stand up for our values, even when it was unpopular. And there was, you know, maybe there was some bad actor in crypto or maybe the SEC was trying to kill the industry in the U.S. and we had to sue them. And actually, we went and we won that case. Right. Or the Mission First blog post or even with the Clarity Act that's going through Congress now, we see like the bank lobby trying to push back against that and say, oh, it's so dangerous.

42:10and they're just, they have a conflict of interest because they're trying to protect their own business model, right? So we're always gonna stand up for what we believe is right. It doesn't mean you're not open to feedback. Like if there's people who have your best interests at heart, I think you should be listening to that. But if there's people out there who just have their own agenda and they're trying to, you know, don't do any virtue signaling. Don't just try to optimize for optics of like, how do we look good into the world? People can see through that and it actually backfires. I think you should just have an opinion, stand for it, and don't apologize.

42:41You mentioned this in an interview you did with David Sundra, where you were talking about the New York Times hit piece, and you said that you think everybody should have a New York Times hit piece. What did that teach you? What happened there, by the way, for the people who don't know the context? Yeah, well, this was after we put out the Mission First blog post where we said we're going to focus on work at work. And if you want to do political activism stuff not related to the mission, that's fine, but just don't do it at work. You can do it outside of work. And yeah, I mean, the SEC or not the SEC, sorry, the New York Times at this point, it was just I guess that was just against their worldview.

43:18And so people told me later what happened internally is they said, basically, just they put a team together to go write negative articles about Coinbase. So they sort of they had the they had the headline written before they'd even asked anybody what the news was, because, you know, in my view, the New York Times is more of like a political propaganda arm than it is doing any real journalism at this point. So that was frustrating at the time. I was like, oh man, these negative articles are coming out. But very quickly, I realized it just didn't matter. First of all, most of our customers don't read the New York Times or any traditional media, to be honest.

43:53Or if they do, it's very rare. I'd say people under 50 years old are mostly doing new media now, which would be like podcasts like this. They're reading blog posts and Substack. They're looking at X feeds. And so I think all companies should really own their own distribution and just publish directly and talk to new media. That's what I do with 80 % of my time. 20 % of my time, I still spend with traditional media because there are people who are over 50 or over 60, mostly on the East Coast, who still read traditional media. And so from like a deep, like if I want to influence like policymakers in D.C., I'll probably go talk to Politico or something.

44:33But for most of our customers, the traditional media, it's dead. It's just not relevant anymore. And it took getting a negative article or two, which was scary at first to realize it just didn't matter. And it freed me up to think about, OK, what do I actually want to create in the world if I don't have to worry about being attacked or, you know. And then I think I got more creative and more confident. Today's episode is sponsored by VCX by Fundrise, the public ticker for private tech, allowing investors of all sizes to invest in venture capital. Learn more at getvcx.com. Some of you may not have heard this yet, but our sponsor Public just launched something called Generated Assets, and it brings AI into investing in a way I've honestly never seen before.

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46:31Get visas handled fast. And get back to building. Visit deal.com slash sorcery. That's D-E-E-L dot com slash sorcery. I mean, it is pretty interesting. like with all with all the fintech companies wanting to be the everything app or the super financial app there's also the competing headlines of like anthropic and open ai being the everything company like they're gonna do everything where do you stand in that because some people are like oh i don't especially with some investors like on the vc side they're like they're having an existential crisis because they don't know if they should be investing in more things or if Anthropik's just going to build all the companies.

47:16Where do you stand in that? Well, I don't think OpenAI and Anthropik are going to build all the companies. I think they're mostly focused on building foundational models, which are broadly applicable. But for instance, I don't think anyone thinks they're going to get into regulated financial services. It's a very complex and difficult thing. Most tech companies don't want to have anything to do with that. And then I think there's actually going to be specialized models. Like, actually, I think Coinbase has a real opportunity to go build a frontier model for investing, for instance, right, based on the data sets that we have from our customers.

47:53So yeah, I'm not worried about them, you know, eating lots of different companies. I think the best companies are just going to get even more efficient, like Coinbase is doing. And if there's companies that fail to integrate AI, then they could get left behind. But the best companies in every industry are just going to be even more productive. Who do you think your biggest competitor is? It depends in what category, because Coinbase does a handful of things. I think, you know, if you look at stable coins, like we've partnered with Circle on USDC, the biggest competitor to that would be Tether, right, which is offshore.

48:28I think on the exchange, like on the crypto exchange side, our biggest competitor is probably Binance, right, which again is offshore. I think if you look at the US market where some of these fintech apps are integrating more crypto, you know, and we offer stock trading now, so Robinhood would probably be, for our retail apps specifically, like Robinhood is probably the most clear comp. And then with Coinbase developer platform, which is what it's allowing all these businesses to integrate stable coins. You know, Stripe is probably the best competitor we have there. So we also run the largest institutional business in crypto.

49:05I actually don't think there's like a close competitor for that, at least not one that comes to mind. So yeah, we have a number of different products and competitors in each of those categories. Oh, by the way, one other maybe interesting take on the AI usage, you know, you're asking about Anthropic and all that. But yeah, so one interesting phenomenon, like a lot of companies, we were seeing our AI spend go up like exponentially. And I went with the team and I kind of looked at this and I said. The open source models are about three to three to six months behind the frontier models, right? But they're 99 % cheaper for inference.

49:41And I was like, what percent of our prompts are we routing to open source models? Because if you're asking a really complicated question, you might want to use the frontier model. But if you're just asking, like, you know, who's Molly's manager, you know, or whatever, you're trying to look up something. Why are you using the most expensive model? So we actually made some very simple changes, like some more intelligent routing of prompts to, like, depending on the complexity of the query to the right model. We started caching some requests, just some sensible defaults. We even, like when certain employees were about to cross their budget threshold, we would just say, are you aware this is about to happen?

50:25And you can keep going if you're doing something useful. We don't want to slow you down. But just even making them aware of that. And what was really cool is we are now seeing our usage of AI tokens is still continuing to grow exponentially. But the cost curve has really started to flatten. Yeah. Yeah, I think that this is something that a lot of companies are going to do next. And we're getting this intelligent middleware to know where to route the query to the right level of model. You built that internally? You're not using another company for that? There's an open source project that we based it on and then we modified it.

51:00I think the open source project was called LightLM is one of the ones we use. There's some other in-house stuff that we used as well. Oh, wow. Yeah. So my guess is that within 12 to 18 months, 80 % of our workloads will be going toward models that are 99 % cheaper. But 20 % of it will still go to these frontier models where you need to be, you know, IQ maxing or whatever you want to call it. IQ maxing. Okay. So we've had a really fun and eventful background to us with everyone getting ready for tomorrow. I do want to go back to a couple of the announcements that you have coming up. What is the one that you're most excited about?

51:41In terms of like the amount of, sometimes I can never tell which ones people are gonna get excited about because like there's some that I've spent years like trying to get over the line. And I'm like, yes, finally we did it. Like the tokenized stock thing and like these approvals that we just got in the US to finally like have global unified liquidity of our crypto trading and options. And like, cause you know, 80 % of the market had moved offshore, 20 % was in the US. We finally got the approvals to have the same products in the U.S. that were offshore. So we can now have global unified liquidity, which has a cool network effect.

52:11But I think maybe the one I'm most excited about is just the financial infrastructure for AI. It's like people are going to use things like Coinbase Advisor right in their Coinbase account to just manage their financial life. It'll prompt you with things you didn't even think of that you could be doing better. It's going to quickly start getting to a place where you can actually have agents just trading autonomously in a certain portfolio where you put a certain amount of money. Like TradingArena.xyz is a really cool app that people are using our API to go do this today. And then we're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts.

52:45And we're powering that with the base like MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other agents. into teams. That's like probably the coolest thing on the frontier that we're announcing today. With nearly$4 trillion in new IPOs, how are you planning on getting all of those employees onto Coinbase and to be using these products? Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of wealth being created right now. You know, I mean, yeah, I mean, so of course, we support stock trading. If they have shares and they want to move it over, like we have a really great feature now where people can transfer stocks into Coinbase.

53:30It uses something underneath called ACATS, which is just like the industry standard. But you can basically move it over from any brokerage and have it in the everything exchange where you can do anything with it. Yeah, and then we also launched a direct deposit feature too. So when you're at a company getting your paycheck, instead of depositing it into your checking account and earning zero, you might as well deposit it into Coinbase and earn 3.5 % on cash. And then you can also, when it's direct deposited, choose to allocate it to different investment strategies if you want to have a portion of your paycheck working for you.

54:01So yeah, we're really, it's not just about trading. Like we're trying to be the primary financial account for someone's entire life. So as we close out, I have to end on a positive note. So Sorcery sponsored by Brex and they're all about spending smarter, moving faster. Their kind of ethos is around performance for your finances. And so I'm really curious from your standpoint, I like to skew this question more of like a personal reflection rather than I don't need to know about your finances. I'm sure you're doing fine. I think a key component of personal performance is who you surround yourself with and who you've been mentored, who you like kind of admire, where you get your own energy from.

54:46So who would those people be for you? Well, I do believe in that idea that you're the average of your five closest friends. and you know if you're unhappy with where you are maybe level up your friends or something like that um well there's lots of people who i've learned from and i try to um you know whenever i'm trying to do something new for the first time i try to just steal the best ideas from people who are really good at that right so there's people on our board that have helped me lots with um comms and like how to go do policy in DC. There's other CEOs that I spend time with, where we all learn from each other about how to build more AI native companies.

55:31Like, I think when I was first starting Coinbase, really, I had never managed anybody. I was kind of a software engineer. I was a kind of conflict averse. I was kind of introverted. And so I really had to lean into this idea of, I actually love conflict. Like healthy conflict can create really good outcomes. And just that's kind of your job as a CEO sometimes is to take the most broken, messed up thing in the company. Maybe two people can't work with each other. Maybe someone's not ready to do this next job. Maybe you have to fire a customer because it's not, you know, and you basically just go do hard conversations for a living, right?

56:07And you have to find a way to like that and enjoy it because you're creating value and helping move things forward. And then, you know, pick your head up at the end of the week and realize not everything in the company is that broken. That was like the 5 % that you were working, you were fixing, but the other 95 % is going really well. So anyway, there's lots of people like this who I've learned from. I don't, I'm not sure I want to give you all the exact names because we don't get any names. There's no secrets being spilled. I can tell you, I can tell you people on our board, for instance, like, yeah, I mean, I think Mark Andreessen has been an incredible mentor about how to do policy and in DC and comms.

56:43I think Toby Lutke at Shopify CEO, he's been great thinking about like how to be an AI native organization. And there's probably like five or six other CEOs of other companies that I spend a lot of time with who I don't know if they want to be named. So I'll decline that. But yeah, we compare notes a lot and it's good to have, I think when you're attempting to do anything, you should have a bit of a mastermind group like that. And for me, I was never like, I'm so busy. I didn't, I don't naturally just keep in touch with people. I sort of have to structure it. So I'm like, all right, once a month, we're going to have this meeting.

57:19And once a year, we're going to go on a trip. And that allows us to get enough face time to like build these strong relationships over time. It's a great way to end it. Thank you so much, Brian. Thank you. Hey, it's Molly. If you enjoy our interviews, check out our newsletter, sorcery.vc, where we deliver a once a week top deals and tech headlines email and also go deeper on our podcast interviews. Subscribe to Sorcery today. And don't forget to subscribe to the podcast on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, or wherever you listen. Link in description to sign up.