A Blockade Begins & Dirty Soda Heads to the Golden Arches 4/13/26

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0:55Jens Stoltenberg:Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran end without a deal. President Trump announces a blockade of any and all ships trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz. So that Iran will not be able to sell oil and that will be very effective. We go around the world for the latest in the conflict. CNBC's Dan Murphy in the Middle East. The ceasefire is still intact, at least for now, on paper, but there is a real risk of renewed conflict here. Evercore's Roger Altman on what the business community sees. They still have their store of nuclear uranium.

1:38Jens Stoltenberg:The Strait of Hormuz is closed and there hasn't been regime change. And former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on American allies' view of the Iran war. This has not been a NATO operation. If there's going to be a NATO operation, as it was in Afghanistan, then you need to consult with all the allies. You need to make decisions in NATO. And that has not been the case in this, when it comes to the war against Iran. Plus, the rest of today's news that got us squawking. Kelly Evans sitting in with our Joe Kernan. Are you ready for this? Yeah. Dirty Dr. Pepper. It is Monday, April 13th, 2026.

2:16Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand by Joe. In three, two, one, his mic here. Good morning. And well, Becky reads this. You didn't want to do this? They didn't ask. Kelly's here. They just gave it to you. Five days. Five days. Short straw. Short stick. You got, right? If you let me stay through the end. If you can make it. If you can get up at three every day. Welcome back. Or welcome. Welcome back. If you're here Friday, the Squawk Box here on CNBC live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Joe Kernan, along with Kelly Evans. She's wonderful. She gets a lot of time later in the day.

2:53Well, well-deserved. When we start talking about Bitcoin, there's going to be a hook, and they're going to say, get her off the set. You're still not negative on Bitcoin, are you? I mean, it's like the worst performing, one of the worst performing. You didn't learn when you said that at$26 ,000, when you put all your money in T-bills, and I told you. By the way, and you are correct about that, thank you for letting me sit here, because I thought I was going to be over there. You might be. Is the neck. I know it's a lot. I'm going to look on break. I'm going to see whether it's my good side or my bad side.

3:27Becky always sits there. Yes, of course. But I know that it'd be easier to look across. But we have a lot. We have eight guests today, supposedly. Great. There's a lot of conjecture on what all this means. Is the ceasefire still happening? was Iran, I guess, the zeal for the Trump administration to look for an off-ramp. I don't know whether that's seen as weakness, but the job's not done. There's a lot of people, including the Wall Street Journal, saying, look, you can't put a round peg in a square hole. You don't have any guarantee on the nuclear ambitions, the straits closed. Oh, meaning to come to some sort of...

4:09After you've come this far, and it's no one wants a forever war. No one wants casualties. No one has a stomach for any of this. But it's even worse once you start if you don't finish. Well, now we have a real problem. Now we have a real problem. That's the irony. We're six weeks in. Now we have a real problem. We've had a 47-year problem. Yeah, for sure. For sure. And you hope all that's been degraded and everything. Just October 7th, and then the 40 ,000 or 30 ,000 people that were. Yeah, fair. That's why I don't understand the Pope. It's like, but anyway, pretty good week last week. But it was, you know, based on hopes for the ceasefire continuing for some kind of deal.

4:49But the journal also points out, look, Iran thought, all right, this this J.D. Vance, vice president, didn't want to do this in the first place. That's what all the conjecture is. So he wants out. Maybe we can play him. We can play him. So if they can't get the dovish guy to agree and he walks out, then there's no longer the idea that there's a split in the resolve of the administration to go forward. That all seems true. And yet you look at the price action this morning. And to me, the real problem is the oil price. Everything else, I think, equities, I think, are kind of shrugging this off. I mean, didn't you think, are you a little surprised that the reaction wasn't bigger to blockade on the Strait of Hormuz?

5:31And we're down like two thirds of a percent. How long is the Ukraine war going on after we thought it was going to be? Exactly. It's just the oil price that makes this one feel a little bit different. It does, but we can. It's expensive, but we don't have the supply, the actual supply issues that Europe is going to have. And it's not even that expensive. I mean, again, we were at five dollars not long ago. We're at four now. I just think people are starting to realize it's not going back down quickly, not at this rate. When we were begging Iran, and we still are, to let ships go through the strait, whose ships were going through and who was it benefiting?

6:04Was it China? Their ships, their oil money was still coming in. To Iran, yes. So it was sort of counterproductive for us to want their ships to get through. So those are the options. You either let their ships go through, which benefits them, or you don't let them through. And then the oil price goes up even more. But maybe the point now is that, and now you see people calling for. Do you remember it was 120 in 2022? 129, I think. Yeah. Yeah. Went up in 12 days, took 148 to fall. Right. Hopefully it doesn't last a long time. We had a big argument on Friday about inflation. Core, core 2.6. On what, the PCE?

6:45Just core CPI. So headline three, three, but Coors two, six. So this, you know, that's the reason they back out food and energy is because it's volatile. And a lot of people are pointing out you can't use multiplication. You got to use addition when you're adding up these numbers. So for someone to say inflation tripled. Right. Look, the monthly number. I don't even think this is necessarily like the twenty twenty two one back then. And as you know, we had all the stimulus. So when you had these high oil prices, they were just people were paying them. But now I don't know if they have the same wherewithal.

7:23I think that will make it. Well, you think about, you know, the inflation. Everybody's giving an excuse to the Biden administration for inflation. I was saying it the whole world had it with supply constraints. Look, there's everyone was stimulating as well. But their supply and demand. OK, we know that there were supply constraints. But if you dump fuel on the fire with what was the inflation reduction, the chips, the, you know, fiscal and monetary. And enabled by a trillion enabled by the Fed, five trillion dollars with some lingering supply constraints. It would not have happened if they didn't if they didn't do that.

7:56If you don't have if people can't pay for it at the end of the day, it's a tax. And that's why I wonder this time around. What's ironic is it's landing in tax refund moment when the consumer is doing pretty good. But if they can't pay for it, it's a tax. You know how I judge how things are going by what it's all over this guy's face. He cannot he cannot hide how he feels about what's going on. So let's see how Murphy. All right. Is feeling this morning. We can tell right away when we go to him. President Trump says the U.S. will begin a blockade of Iranian ports in just a few hours. 10 a.m. Eastern time is what the president is saying.

8:29Four hours from now, CNBC's Dan Murphy joins us with more from Abu Dhabi. Dan, was I was like slight optimism? No, he looks serious. He's got things to say. But I'm feeling a little disconsolate, but I'm not sure what the answer is at this point. Dan, nobody knows. Right. Hey, Joe. Hey, Kelly. I look first up to Kelly's point. Oil prices back to triple digits this morning. So traders are discounting the possibility of a quick diplomatic off ramp now as the U.S. Navy begins its blockade in the coming hours. And the president's framing is interesting here because it suggests this is a blockade of Iran, not of the strait itself.

9:10But he is also warning that any Iranian forces firing on US troops or commercial shipping during the blockade will be, in his words, blown to hell. So look, whether the United States starts physically striking boats and seizing tankers in a Venezuela-style operation remains to be seen. And Joe, as you mentioned, the Wall Street Journal reports today that President Trump is also now weighing resuming limited military strikes on Iran if the blockade alone fails to break the stalemate after the vice president's peace talks ended without a deal at the weekend. And interestingly, as the clock ticks down as well, Iran is also hitting back.

9:48In a statement from its armed forces to state media, Tehran said that if the security of Iran's own ports are threatened, that no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe. Of course, Iran has said it wants to permanently control the Strait of Hormuz with transit and tolls on Iran's terms. The United States has made it clear in the last few hours that that is not happening. So the ceasefire is still in effect on paper. I think whether it lasts now remains really unclear. Kelly? Yeah, no, Dana, I guess one of the big retaliation points everyone is watching for is whether Iran does anything against the Gulf region at this point.

10:29And it seems like things are pretty quiet on that front, which is, I think, helping the sense of calm even amidst the upward move in the oil price. You're exactly right. And the Gulf reaction has been interesting here as well, because the Gulf states, including the UAE, have signaled their willingness to join an American-led coalition to reopen Hormuz. But it's unclear what the UAE, for example, is willing to give up to make that happen. They actually tried to do this through the UN, but it was shut down by Russia and China. As for the other Gulf states, Saudi Arabia is interesting too. It's been prioritizing its east-west pipeline, which is back up and running now to avoid the water entirely.

11:09And then taking a step further here, we've also just had reaction from the Europeans, which is important to flag as well. President Emmanuel Macron saying France and the UK now plan to organize a conference, they're calling it, for countries prepared to contribute to a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation. They say this is going to be strictly defensive and it's going to be deployed as soon as circumstances permit. But exactly who will come to support the United States in this effort remains unclear at this point as well. And then it was raised earlier, but there's also an interesting China dimension here too.

11:46And this is really important. Beijing, as you know, is Iran's largest oil buyer. It has continue to receive shipments through the straits since the war began. The US is effectively ending that Tehran-Beijing deal tonight. And a blanket blockade on Iranian crew directly threats that supply and risks drawing China in just weeks before Trump's planned trip to Beijing. So this is going to be really interesting to watch. You really do get the sense that the Gulf states are back on edge now. In fact, anyone trading oil, anyone following this conflict is now back on edge to see exactly what happens at 6 p.m.

12:24local time when the president's blockade begins. As I mentioned, the ceasefire is still intact, at least for now, on paper. But there is a real risk of renewed conflict here if this doesn't continue to go south. China was quick to say we're not supplying any weapons and that's fake news or whatever. So that made me think, I mean, if they were really um i don't know if if they thought look that's our right to do whatever we want it in terms of you know our allies and they do get i don't know whether iran's an ally de facto it probably is but they were quick to say no no no uh we're not so uh you know i'm not sure iran can can count on china uh at this point the other thing i was saying okay So we have terrible memories of Iraq, terrible memories maybe of Afghanistan.

13:15So we're I'm not going to say we're soft, but we don't have much stomach for this. Iran, on the other hand, now their economy is already just absolutely in the toilet. This is going to make it worse. But the regime doesn't care about its people. They have the ability to completely, you know, there's not going to be any elections. They don't have midterms coming up. So, I mean, how much pain can they inflict on their own people, I guess, as much as they want? And when does that reach a breaking point if this blockade continues for a month? Yeah. Well, this is a really interesting point that you raise as well, Joe, because China has been the primary buyer of Iranian crude.

13:56And this is a major economic and financial lifeline for the regime. There was actually some analysis done that suggested that if we saw the Chinese cutting off their intent to buy Iranian crude or even the Iranians stopping their ability to export their own oil through Hormuz, then this could result in a$250 million US dollar a day impact for the Iranians. So they will be hurt here if they're unable to export their own crude to top buyers like China. how long they could potentially withstand that, I think, is a really important point to make here as well. And of course, that's something that the U.S.

14:33president is also thinking of. All right, Dan, thank you. We'll leave it there for now. Appreciate it this morning. Dan Murphy. And Rory McIlroy repeating as master's champion. He tapped in for a bogey on 18th, but he had a two stroke lead to finish a 12 under par, beat Scotty Scheffler by one stroke. His main competitor late in the day at Augusta National was Justin Rose, who was just on a roll till really number 11 of the beginning of Amen quarter. He tied, finished in a tie for third at 10 under. McElroy is the fourth player to win back to back Masters. He joins Tiger Woods, Nick Fauto and Jack Nicklaus in that group.

15:15He now has six total major wins in his career tied with Fauto, Lee Trevino, Phil Nicklauson. And he said, I would love to give myself the green jacket because, you know, the previous winner always does that. So the chairman had to give him his green jacket. He could have kind of taken it off one arm and put it on the other arm or something like that. He was 12 under after the second round, after Friday's round. But he won at 12 under. Oh. So even Paul Saturday and Sunday was good enough. He had a six-stroke lead on Friday, and no one was able to. But the one guy who almost did was Scotty Scheffler.

16:00The thing about Augusta, you think about it. How does it do it year after year after year? Rory is the best in the world probably right now. Scotty Scheffler is so close. And the cream rises to where those two guys, one stroke separated them after all was said and done. out of 280, however many, four times 72. And it's just amazing that that, it's something mystical about Augusta. It's almost a, you know, for golf and what it means to people and the way it works. And the history, I mean, it's a - And the history. In McElroy, he knew from a young, young age that he had this call. It was crazy. Yeah.

16:37And everything that his family went through and that he went through. His dad was working the bar, working the pro shop. I don't want to bring it up, but, you know, I do think about everything going on with Tiger Woods. And we remember such talent. What a phenom. And it's so sad to watch him struggle the way that he's struggling right now. And it's just the perspective around, yes, I hope that I'm so thrilled for Rory, that for his whole life, everything he's worked for, that it's worked out this way. Sometimes there's still the rest of the story of his life to be told. And I just think about that when I watch it now.

17:09I mean, I just can't help but think about Tiger Woods. And I just wish him, I wish all the best for him. Right. Get through things right now. Tiger's in a lot of pain. I mean, physical pain. And I don't know how you, it doesn't excuse everything. And some of this pain might be from. From golf. And from the other crash where he. Of course. Yeah, right. He drives too fast. I'm convinced he definitely drives too fast. You definitely can't drive when you're unpaid medicine. Someone else, it's not just about you. Someone else could. You got to get a driver, not a golf club, a driver. Get a driver. Get a driver to drive you around your Tiger Woods.

17:52Maybe a cart. McDonald's is reportedly looking to overhaul its beverage menu to include energy drinks. And that's not all. The Wall Street Journal says the menu refresh is coming later this year and will include a Red Bull Dragonberry Energizer. Also reportedly on the menu are specialty sodas like a. Are you ready for this? Yeah. Dirty Dr. Pepper. Pepper. Because nobody drinks soda anymore. Maybe this will do it. The report notes that McDonald's plans to sell the drinks at prices below offerings from competitors like Starbucks. I guess Starbucks would sell some energy drink. I don't think they're selling dirty Dr.

18:26Pepper. I don't know what that is. What is that? I don't know either. Probably just some sort of mix. You know? They expect the drink to generate higher profit margins. And that's like, you remember all these, you know, restaurants and chains used to make all their profit margin on soda? No one buys it anymore. No. At least not sugary. I've got like four tablespoons of sugar in this, but that's fine. And you don't know, is it better to take your chances with sugar or one of those sweeteners? No, I don't think those sweeteners are so good. The fake ones, I don't know. Do you do the sweeteners or no?

19:02I do in coffee. Yeah. But like real sugar or? Equal. Equal. That's so 1980s. See, you're like a Gen Xer at heart or something. Can I do that? I think so. Can I claim Gen X? I think so. I've thought about that. Unfortunately, there's records everywhere for Earth Days and things like that. People can find out if you try to lie. But it's how you... I know. I know. I do lots of push-ups. My hair is still real.

19:29Jens Stoltenberg:Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod, what does Wall Street think of a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? veteran investor Roger Altman, co-founder of Evercore, on the global news impacting U.S. markets. The mild reaction of markets this morning, I think, reflects an expectation that the fighting is over. We'll be right back.

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20:22I want to grow the game so every kid can fall in love with soccer like I did. So I asked myself, what would you like the power to do? My answers inspired me to invent a pop-up soccer goal that can turn any basketball court into a street soccer pitch.

21:00Access new online courses, insightful webcasts, articles, engaging videos, and more. All curated just for traders. Plus, guided learning paths with content designed to fit your unique interests. And no sifting to find exactly what you need, so you can spend your time learning to trade brilliantly. Learn more at schwapp.com slash trading. This is Squawk Pod from CNBC. Today with Joe Kernan and Kelly Evans. Welcome back. As we mentioned, futures are somewhat muted this morning in response to this blockade of the Strait of Hormuz the president says is going into effect at 10 a.m. The Dow is down 194 for the implied open right now.

21:40Roger Altman is here. He's the founder and senior chairman of Evercore. It's great to have you here this morning.

21:45Jens Stoltenberg:Thanks for having me. So many, I mean, just top level thoughts here. The seriousness of the blockade. Our last strategist was talking about are we going to have men on ships trying to stop the oil from going to China? I don't know. You've obviously seen a number of different conflicts. Well, I have four thoughts on Iran. First of all, no matter what your view of the original decision to launch the war, what we've seen is remarkable tenacity from Iran, because despite being pulverized and despite having its leadership decapitated, it has not folded. And therefore, the U.S. has not achieved the most important strategic goals that President Trump talked about.

22:27Jens Stoltenberg:nuclear, you know, they still have their store of nuclear, of enriched uranium. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and there hasn't been regime change. So that's point one. Two, it was never realistic to expect a peace agreement in 24 hours. The JCPOA, the Obama agreement, you can think of it what you will, but it took 18 months. Vietnam, it took five years. Third, the decision that the president is making on the blockade could work, but it's risky, and it's going to require, this is the key point, a lot of patience. Why do I say that? Because the idea that the blockade is coming into effect this morning, and Iran is going to fold promptly because it's being deprived of its oil revenue, and its allies are being deprived of their oil supplies, I just don't think is correct.

23:21Jens Stoltenberg:That's not because of the tenacity they've shown so far and the approach they took to the peace talks and so forth. So to work, the blockade is going to take some time, some serious time. And it could be months. And do we have the patience to do that over months? I hope we do. It's also risky because, of course, the mild reaction of markets this morning, I think, reflects an expectation that the fighting is over. But will Iran try to, in one way or the other, attack our naval vessels that are enforcing the blockade? Will it resume attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors? We don't know that. Is the fighting really over?

24:01Jens Stoltenberg:We don't know that. So if you say to me, President Trump is committed to enforce this blockade however long it takes, then I think it could work. And after all, it's the correct premise because it's essentially saying it's either open for all or it's closed to all. And the Shade of Hormuz is an international waterway. Iran has no right to control what are imposed tolls. But it's going to take patience. Final point. I think it would be smart if the president could get as many other nations to support the blockade in one form or another, because I think that would put more pressure on Iran, especially.