A Deadline to Reopen Hormuz 4/7/26

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0:57Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. Deadline approaching. President Trump says Iran has until today to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again. An agreement may be unlikely. It's hard to say God bless the people of Iran and then say you're going to bomb the civilization. Tension from investors around the world is high. The countdown is on. President Trump has blinked before. Today we're going to find out if he blinks again. Let's make a deal. One of Wall Street's deans of mergers and acquisitions, Robert Kindler of Paul Weiss, on the boardroom deals America's business love most.

1:46These are deals that started probably six, eight months ago and just happened to be getting announced now. Plus, the Artemis II astronauts crossed the dark side of the moon and are headed back home. NASA Administrator Jarek Isaacman joins us. We're going back to the playbook that worked for us on July 20th, 1969. We're bringing it back. We're launching missions with greater frequency. Artemis III in 2027, again, will be very Apollo 9-like. And we're inspired. I thought that guy from 2001 who's still like this, he's further old, but he's dead. He's an actor. It is Tuesday, April 7th, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now.

2:28Stand Becky by in three, two, one. Cue, please. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We are live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. And here we go.

2:50Thank you very much. We have a plan because of the power of our military where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o 'clock tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding, and never to be used again. I mean, complete demolition by 12 o 'clock. And it'll happen over a period of four hours if we wanted to. We don't want that to happen. President Trump vowing that the U.S. will destroy Iranian power plants and bridges, he says, tonight if the country doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I want to get straight over to CNBC's Dan Murphy. He joins us now from Abu Dhabi with the latest.

3:34Good morning. Andrew, good morning. Well, the world is watching, and as President Trump's deadline draws closer, there's still no sign of a diplomatic breakthrough. President Trump's ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will expire at 8 p.m. this evening. And if it does, the U.S. could begin an operation to demolish the country's power plants, bridges and energy infrastructure. In fact, The Wall Street Journal reports this morning, though, that negotiators are pessimistic. Iran will meet that deadline. And markets seem equally unconvinced. crude is trading at around$110 a barrel this morning and there's still no sell-off here.

4:14Oil traders appear to be pricing in escalation, not a diplomatic off-ramp. And of course that comes after the US reportedly put a 45-day ceasefire proposal on the table. Iran rejected it, sending back a counter that asked for a permanent end to the war and sanctions relief. Trump called it a significant step but also said it wasn't good enough. And we're also getting more reaction from the Gulf today as well. The UAE's presidential adviser, Anwar Gargache, posting on X this morning saying the UAE stance enjoys widespread support across the Gulf Street. But he also went one step further here saying the Iranian regime cannot be trusted.

4:56That is Abu Dhabi signaling whose side it is on ahead of President Trump's deadline. The UAE, of course, has been actively responding to Iranian missiles and drones today. Saudi Arabia's defense ministry also said it had been intercepting 18 drones and seven ballistic missiles overnight, with debris falling near its own energy facilities. It's a reminder that Iran can still retaliate if the president gives the green light to those strikes, and of course, something that leaders in the Gulf capitals are watching so the countdown is on president trump has blinked before today we're going to find out if he blinks again and we should know soon if this war is about to enter a new and far more dangerous phase and you mentioned uh that the markets thought that this was going to happen tonight i wonder actually if you look at the you can look at the wti maybe that way i don't know about ICE that way, but I think the bigger question is that the stock market looks like it may open up higher.

5:57And is that a function of a view that people think that actually the U.S. either won't be bombing this evening or that those bombs will not be nearly as severe as thought before and that there's going to be some kind of ongoing talks that bring this more to a close more quickly or at least create some kind of reprieve or something else. It's a really good point, Andrew. And oil traders have been far more hawkish here. We are seeing the price premium for Brent and WTI and also some of the other spreads, particularly here in the Middle East as well. Dubai and Oman also trading at premium. So it seems as if the oil market is calling for escalation, not a diplomatic off ramp.

6:41But on the equity trade, this has been interesting to watch as well. And in fact, through the course of the Asia and European trading days today, we actually saw equity not necessarily selling off here. In fact, it was quite well bid in Asia off the back of what was a decent lead from Wall Street. So if you are trading equity, it seems as if you're a lot less concerned about what could happen in the coming hours than you are if you're trading oil. But of course, for oil specifically, the primary focus is maybe not so much on the war headlines or the diplomacy headlines. It is, of course, on the Strait of Hormuz.

7:17Even if we did see a diplomatic off-ramp emerging, let's say, in the next couple of hours, Hormuz is going to remain effectively closed here. So in oil, yes, you have the war premium and the diplomacy headline weighing in, but the bigger factor is the issue surrounding the strait. Oil's likely going to be blocked for weeks, if not months to come, given the damage to infrastructure here. And of course, that's also being reflected in the prices right now as well. Dan, yesterday there was a story about a small Wall Street firm that sent an analyst over to watch the Strait of Hormuz to see what was really happening.

7:53And by his account, it sounded like there were more ships that were passing through the strait than we'd realized that they're turning off their GPS system, finding a way to spoof it and perhaps cooperating by paying some sort of a toll to get through. But it made it sound like there's a lot more oil that's getting through, even if most of it's going to China. How do you try and get your arms around that to figure out how much oil is getting through every day? It was a great piece. In fact, one of the most widely read pieces on CNBC.com in the last 12 hours. I took a lot of interest in that piece because inside it basically explains how there has been some transits taking place through Hormuz.

8:33Again, a lot of secrecy surrounding the vessels, but it does appear as if we're seeing, of course, some ships, particularly Iranian vessels, being able to pass through, likely to Chinese, maybe even Russian buyers. But the transparency that we have around what is actually moving on the water right now is pretty unclear. And of course, without proper ground game and a real understanding of how much cargo is actually moving that is adding to the risk for markets as well and of course as i mentioned just before we are seeing uh the uh crude benchmarks here also reflecting that uncertainty and that reality on the water where it's still way too dangerous for captains and their cargos to traverse we were going to actually it was citrini research and that's that's where we were headed uh after the name of the Yeah, after this, Dan sent the analysts and ships moving through the waterway is reportedly what that person found.

9:34Traffic picking up recently to about 15 ships per day. Anyway, thank you, Dan. We'll see you again, hopefully. And Satrini claims the actual shipping volume higher than reported data. Many vessels, as Becky said, turning off their transponders so that they're invisible on the official tracking system. described the situation in the waters near Iran as, in its words, a functional checkpoint rather than a blockade. And Citrini, that's the same firm that jolted the markets back in February when it issued a report laying out what would happen in a hypothetical scenario. Oil prices dropped on that report that came out.

10:15This had to do with AI severely disrupts businesses in the jobs market. So it's a niche research firm. It's not quite so niche anymore as it gets. Did you hear how the guy did it? He basically took a bunch of cash and Cuban cigars to use as for bribes for some of these things. He signed a pledge, I believe in Oman, that he would not do any research around this area. than went out on a boat and kind of sat and watched, which, talk about some high stakes, steel nerves to be able to do some of this stuff. Cuban cigars. Right. Those always work. Yeah. Right.

10:58Let's look something up real quick. I can't believe it's been that long. But my next story, we're talking about Michigan Wolverines. Oh, 89, right? Yeah, 89. It wasn't the guys I was thinking, and thank God, because you remember the great Michigan players we've had over the years. They're all announcers now. It wasn't those guys, and I was thinking, God, don't tell me that those guys were. Yeah, 1989 was the last time. But Michigan dominant. Not in the first half. I watched the first half. I stayed up until 10 to watch the first half. I mean dominant until now. Oh, yeah, until now. Six points is the closest that I remember in the tournament.

11:37I think 15 or 19 was the closest. They were averaging like 30. They had 90 plus points. They had a bunch of 30 point wins. They really were dominant. I think they only had three losses during the regular season. One guard. Super high guy. Super tall guy who's 7 '3". No, the other guy. Waiting for Godot. He won the MVP. He should have. Amazing. Everything. No look passes. Yeah. Wolverines ended their dominant NCAA run with a national championship last night. They defeated UConn 69 to 63, cementing the school's first title since 1989, also snapping a 26-year title drought for the Big Ten. And the 37-3 record was the best in Michigan basketball history.

12:28And I didn't sleep well because of this. Were you up? No. No. No, but I had made a bet. On UConn? No. I picked you. Oh, I wish I had. Yeah. Six and a half points. Oh. I bet on Michigan, six and a half. That was the money always right. Unbelievable. I had to over, too. So I wouldn't have won. Yeah, you know, I lost both ways. But, and I don't get up in the middle of the night to look, because if you do that, if the light hits your. I had UConn to win it all for my bracket. Oh, you did? Yeah. But if you look at it in the middle of the night, you can't go back to sleep. So I'm like, God, I'd like to look to see what, so I didn't sleep.

13:04If I had an aura ring, it would be bad. What's bad? What's really bad? What's the worst you've seen? 43. The worst I've ever seen. The worst you've seen. How bad can it get? Like, what's the bottom line? I think on like an overnight flight kind of thing, where I've gotten like a zero or two. Zero? No, I've gotten like two hours or an hour of sleep. What would that read on an aura ring? Oh, yeah, like a 30 or something. Wow. And let's say you really feel well-rested and get, you know, nine hours. Is it a 90? Can you get a 90? I've gotten in the 90s. If you get in the 30s, do you think I have to stop or I'm going to get sick?

13:43I think if I get in the 60s, I have to stop and I'm going to get sick. Is there any way you can just not come in? Because it's not good for you. It's not good for us. It's not. If you get, like, in the 60s and you're cranky, can you just? Is this a requirement that we all wear the rings? I still think they should, at this point, I think they should sponsor the show. And everyone should wear the rings and there should be a little sign on the thing. You know, I'm on this thing called Circles where I share my number with other people. I would never share my info with other people. And you would be shocked on who's in my circle.

14:16I would never share my info with people. And their names, they're not anonymous. Oh, it's amazing. Oh, no, no. I would say some of the biggest guests we've ever had. I can look and see how they're doing every day. Would you let them see where you are? Like, I would never share information like that with other people. I get text messages from people every day that you know about how everybody's doing, because we're all in the same circle. That's so weird. Yeah. I wouldn't want anyone to know that. Well, I have an 88 today, so I'm doing well. Nice to see you all. 88? 88. Oh, that's good.

14:50NASA's Artemis II astronauts on their way home after journeying further from the Earth than any humans ever. The Orion capsule went into a communications blackout for about 40 minutes yesterday evening as it swung around the far side of the moon. The astronauts were treated to sites on the lunar surface that were never seen by human eyes. They also got views of old Apollo landing sites and a total solar eclipse. They use powerful cameras along with their iPhones to capture pictures of the moon. They are scheduled to splash down in the Pacific Ocean on Friday. Can I ask one stupid question? I should know the answer to this, but I don't.

15:29How was it never seen by human eyes before when Apollo 13 went around? They didn't go as far around. They whipped around. But they did go around the first time. They did. And I don't think that was the plan, but they had to get the... They had to. They had to get the... The spin to get back. The gravity, it was amazing how they did that. And basically in a refrigerator, in a tin can, basically. Yeah. These people are very, very brave now, Watchmen. It's so small. But like, I wiped yesterday... People, they were doing it 50 years ago. I mean, it was like a tin can. They were... Yeah, that's... I mean, that was...

16:04We were basically in a refrigerator that you were going around. Yeah, that was... And circling back. But they still saw it. Maybe they didn't see it as well because they didn't have cameras that were as good. Right. They swung around. This was only 4 ,000 miles away from the moon, right? Yeah. I thought that guy from 2001 who's still like this, he's further, but he's dead. He's an actor. Right. What weather is that? Cheese will be next. Still to come on Squawk Pod, the world of mergers and acquisitions with global chair of M &A, Paul Weiss, Robert Kindler. It's going to be an incredible year for IPOs.

16:43The market's wide open. And I think this is a time when not only the large companies, the AI companies, but also the private equity firms, they're going to go out there and they're going to monetize. He advised on big deals for Charter, Time Warner, Comcast, AT &T. And he's weighing in on hedge funder Bill Ackman's$64 billion pitch today for Universal Music. It's many things, but it's not an acquisition. Deals and the politics of business, right after this.

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17:54Just use code CASHAPP10 when you sign up and, don't forget this part, send at least$5 to a friend in the first two weeks. Terms apply. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App's bank partners. Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. Brand. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures at cash.app. slash legal slash podcast. At Venture Global, we think about what can be done, not what's usually done. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.

18:35So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

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20:52Welcome back to Squawk Pod. Here's Andrew Ross Sorkin. We're going to talk dealmaking so far this year, the IPO pipeline and what could drive or hinder deals the rest of the year. I'm an expert Robert Kindler joins us now, Global Chair of Mergers and Acquisitions Group. Pat Paul Weiss, good morning to you, sir. Good to be here. Good to be back. I haven't seen you in a long time. So help us understand what's actually happening. I'm going to talk about IPOs because that's the big story of the year. But in terms of just mergers and acquisitions, which were always sort of a signal, a pulse on what was happening in the economy's confidence, people talk about a boom.

21:25You think we're in an M &A boom? What's happening here? I think the first quarter's been great with a bunch of very large deals, but a lot of them were just delayed from last year. You know, last year in the fourth quarter, we had the government shutdown. We had a lot of uncertainty going on. So basically, these are deals that started probably six, eight months ago and just happened to be getting announced now. And, you know, a lot of these deals have been in the works for years, like the Cisco deal. We advise Cisco, you know, that they thought about doing that deal for a decade. And it just happened that now is a good time to do it.

22:01So when you take a bunch of deals that were kind of delayed from last year and roll them into the first quarter. So you don't buy the argument that we are now in a regulatory environment under this administration that is allowing for a whole expansion of transactions. No, I don't. I mean, I do think. Because of what? A couple of things. First of all, in Europe, it's still the same regulatory regime, which is not that easy to do deals. And in the U.S., it's still a populist administration. I mean, they basically, it's not exactly like they're in favor of big pharma and big tech necessarily. I do think they're more commercial, which I think is very good.

22:39So people can try to do deals that they didn't do in the past. But I don't think it's a floodgate of regulatory deal. I don't think it's a floodgate because people think you can do deals you could never do before. What about what's happening in the IPO market right now? I mean, it does feel between what's going to happen with SpaceX, it's going to happen with OpenAI, probably Anthropik. Are those just three and they suck all the oxygen out of the rest, or is that just the beginning of something bigger? Well, you know, the first quarter actually had a lot of volume in M &A. Sorry, in IPOs. But the number of IPOs actually was down.

23:15And a lot of these also were from last year, because remember, the SEC shut down in the fourth quarter. But yeah, it's going to be an incredible year for IPOs. The market's wide open. And I think this is a time when not only the large companies, the AI companies, but also the private equity firms, they're going to go out there and they're going to monetize. I got one for you. What do you think of this idea that the NASDAQ, which is going to take SpaceX public, or I don't think it's going to take it public, but it's going to happen here, that they are changing the rules, apparently, to allow for that company to be part of the index within 15 days of it landing in the market, which means that all of a sudden everybody who owns these indexes are effectively forced buyers.

23:59And what that does to price discovery and whether you think this is a good trend, a bad trend. Well, we don't know how New York Stock Exchange is going to respond. But on the other hand, NASDAQ has a big advantage in having QQQ, right? So I think it's real. I think the fact that you don't have to wait three months and that within a week or so you can get right in the biggest index, I think it's a big deal. Oh, it's amazing for the company. Yeah. No question. I'm asking a slightly different question, which is, do we think it's an amazing thing for the investor class? Which is to say that if you have investors who've invested early in this company that might even be locked up or not locked up, and that all of a sudden there's a forced buyer in the market, what that does to...

24:46So you're actually asking me whether this is good for investors rather than for the companies? Bingo. Okay. Look, the stock is going to end up trading at a normalized level at some point, whether it's three months or six months. So I do think being able to raise large amounts of money because you do have these indexes is probably a good thing. And at the end of the day, it's going to trade where it's going to trade. I guess maybe it's better because I've been thinking about the same thing, too. We talked about this yesterday. Maybe it's better if it goes into the index. Maybe it's not before the lockups expire.

25:20That's the question. Do you end up transferring it? I think there'll be a lot of retail demand for this. But by putting it in the index earlier, you're basically forcing it on retail investors who may or may not want to buy, or at least may or may not want to buy at that moment. No, it's absolutely accurate that this could result in a spike in the index because of the overall demand. And then when it settles down, the stock could go down. I got a different one for you. Same thing, but interesting, because you've lived through this as a banker and a lawyer, I'm sure. You saw reports about SpaceX requiring or at least pushing the bankers and others to effectively use the Grok AI service to effectively become clients of Grok.