A Wisconsin Upset & Gary Vee’s Next Bet 8/14/26

0:00Jared Isaacman:Trading at Schwab is now powered by Ameritrade, bringing you an expanding library of education with even more ways to sharpen your trading skills. Access new online courses, insightful webcasts, articles, engaging videos, and more. All curated just for traders. Plus, guided learning paths with content designed to fit your unique interests. And no sifting to find exactly what you need, so you can spend your time learning to trade brilliantly. Learn more at schwab.com slash trading. Something amazing is happening in networking. Organizations are scaling with less stress. That's because CDW is designing and implementing intelligent HPE Aruba networking solutions that simplify and secure operations.

0:43With automation at the center of your data center, growing pains can be a thing of the past. HPE Aruba Networking and CDW. Make amazing happen. Learn more at cdw.com slash aruba. Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. A political summer of socialism hits a speed bump. Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor has a surprising result. If people think that their candidate doesn't have a chance of winning, they don't vote. Pollster and strategist Frank Luntz has a warning about letting polls get ahead of voters. These prediction markets are now turning politics into a game.

1:27We already have enough trouble with our democracy as it stands. God help us. The business of sports, marketing whiz and alternative sports investor Gary Vaynerchuk on Wiffleball and Big Dreams. When I buy the Jets, and I'm a Jersey voice, this is challenging for me, but I do dream about moving them to Queens. The Jets need their own identity, and that I will take care of. Plus, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman on the future of American space exploration.

1:54Jared Isaacman:There is absolutely a space race underway right now. Every minute, every hour counts, and we are moving. It is Friday, August 14th, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now.

2:12First up today on the podcast, the polls don't trust the polls. This week's Democratic primary in Wisconsin showed the limits of political prognostications when candidate Francesca Hong, a Democratic socialist who represents Madison in the state legislature, was favored to win. By one metric, she was more than 20 points ahead of her nearest competitor.

2:32Jared Isaacman:We have built something that will change politics forever. She lost narrowly to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a more establishment candidate. He had actually dropped out at one point because of these very polls showing him so far behind. And he re-entered the race in its final weeks with the support of Wisconsin's sitting and popular Democratic governor. You know, I always say that every day is a good day. In Wisconsin, it is a very good day. OK, let's get into it. Good Friday morning and welcome to Squawk Box here on CNBC, live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Leslie Picker, along with Brian Sullivan, Mike Santoli, third day in a row.

3:16Joe, Becky and Andrew are off today. Just 81 days to go until the midterm elections. Joining us to break down the big primary results from this week and the key issues driving voters. Frank Luntz, FIL Inc. pollster and political strategist. Frank, good to see you. So we saw some pretty big polling misses in the Midwest this week. In the age of AI, we're 10 years after the 2016 election, which perhaps had one of the most highest profile polling misses in history. How is polling still so off? It shouldn't be used the way that it's being used right now. I've been a guest here now for more than a decade, and I've seen the advances in the technology.

3:56But you can't avoid the fact that in these primary races, you get turnouts of 15 or 20 percent. Most people are not participating, so you should not be making these projections. news networks, newspapers, media outlets want to participate, want to be able to tell their readers, their viewers, who's going to win. But it's not accurate. It's not appropriate. And they have to stop doing it.

4:24Jared Isaacman:Is it dangerous? It's wrong. It's simply wrong. We have a responsibility to be factual and to acknowledge where we are weak. We don't have the capability. There's no humility in polling. Let me flip it. Let me flip it. Because I think what happened in Wisconsin, a state that I know well, is you have to really think. David Crowley, who won the Democratic nomination, effectively dropped out. He was so low in the polling that he effectively said, I'm out. I'm done. Whenever he came back in, he ended up winning. But she was 96 % on prediction markets, soaring in polling. Do polling and prediction markets, and I'm lumping them together, you can address that as well, do they influence and impact outcomes rather than measure a neutral feeling about an outcome?

5:09They don't change it. That's a good question. They don't change a vote, but they do change participation. And we've seen this now for decades. If people think that their candidate doesn't have a chance of winning, they don't vote. On election night, it's why we don't do projections ahead of time. We have to get enough of the votes in to make a declaration. And the fact is, these prediction markets are now turning politics into a game, into betting. We already have enough trouble with our democracy as it stands to add any other component that makes it less serious. God help us. I've said this on this show several times.

5:50Our democracy is under threat. the people who are potentially going to lead this country in Congress are at the extremes, extreme right and extreme left. And that's not helpful for getting things done. It's not helpful for making democracy work. And as someone who is a professor, in addition to being a pollster, it frightens me. I want to get your take on one of the questions from a survey from CNBC and Generation Lab that we had on the show yesterday. Polls have attributed the rise of democratic socialism to young voters. And the data here supports that nearly half have a somewhat favorable or very favorable opinion, while 24 percent had an unfavorable opinion, 12 percent said they don't know what democratic socialism is.

6:35So there's clearly this growing divide in the Democratic Party. And I'm curious if you think that the trend toward democratic socialism makes the party more compelling. Do you feel like that is the future of the Democratic Party come November? Or do you think it will be the moderate candidates that bring more people out to vote? It depends on where you are. That's exactly the case. In New York State, in this area where we are in Times Square, it really does matter. Young people will, if they vote, will vote far left. If you're in Wisconsin, they didn't. If you're in Michigan, they did. It goes state by state, region by region.

7:18I think capitalism is in trouble. It's one of the reasons I've recommended that we start calling it economic freedom. Capitalism is about Wall Street. Economic freedom is about Main Street. Capitalism is about billionaires. Economic freedom is mom and pop. You change the lexicon, which I'd love to do on this show. You change the lexicon and you change how young people see socialism. And if you don't change it, then these far left candidates are going to win and they're going to be successful in November. I mean, that sort of a of a rebrand would probably make sense. Although what it would seem those people are reacting to is the fact that capital in aggregate has been in ascendance for a long time.

8:01I mean, basically wealth piling up. Big companies are kind of have all the money and spending power. And the perception is that there's no real path to the average person to exploit the current economy, even though all the numbers are great. And that's the key is do I have a path? Yeah. It used to be that we were not revenge focused. We were not vengeful in our outlook towards the economy. But that's not the case anymore. We now think that the only way that we get ahead is by denying other people their success. And that has been a challenge over the last 10 years. It's getting more and more significant.

8:35You don't have democratic socialists who are 60 years old. You most certainly have them who are 20 years old. And this next generation. You know, in Vermont, it's like 80 years old. One individual. One individual and his family. So rebrand capitalism as economic freedom. That's the idea, because capitalism is now a dirty word. And it's not just human capital is putting a price tag on the workforce. Human talent is recognizing them for their success. There are a whole series of language that makes a difference in how we perceive our economy, how we perceive our future. And I'm frightened that the people who are advocating for capitalism are the worst communicators in America today.

9:25They have no one to blame but themselves if they're turning people off. Well, you know, I think there is a line that's being drawn between what's going on with affordability and the ascendance that Mike was just talking about with regard to capitalism. And people say that the reason I can't afford my rent or to buy a house is because other people are getting wealthier and they're driving up prices, whether that's true or not. Private equity owns all the houses. I mean, that was such an overstated thing that it became a core piece of this housing. But we have a president of the United States who says, and I quote, affordability is a hoax.

10:01Why are you saying that? If you want Republicans to win in the fall, you're challenging what the public sees. Fifty one percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. My response to that was, oh, my God, we need to do better. And you say affordability is a hoax. So you say I love inflation. you're actually explicitly hurting Republican candidates in November with comments like that yeah why is this happening I don't understand it that's what you need to ask because everything

10:31Jared Isaacman:you need to know you can learn from a radiohead song you do it to yourself and to your point they need better communication strategies better messaging to young people to your point Leslie when they look at a crap apartment in New York and it's two million bucks they're like I'll never ever afford that. And even if I could afford it, I'm going to basically bankrupt myself for four walls, a window and a bed. Well, and then you layer on top of that, the AI job displacement fears. Will they even have a job to even have the privilege of looking at that apartment? We'll get you back on to talk about that.

11:01Jared Isaacman:People don't like AI. And the last issue is we're looking what's happening in France, in Germany and the UK. It's coming here. The public looks at not being able to afford a house until they're 40 and they say, hell no. And we're getting that in America. So I see the future and I take to the people in the Hamptons who I'm going to see in about 10 days, get your act together. Stop communicating like you're billionaires and start communicating like you give a darn about your workforce. All right, Frank, lots to think about there. Appreciate your time. Thank you. Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod, Gary V, the founder of Vaynerchuk Media, has an eye on the next big thing, professionalizing sports that you may play in your backyard, like wiffle ball.

11:52The business model of the league is the business model of every league, right, which is ultimately you want to build enough demand that you get significant TV rights, sponsorship. We'll be right back.

12:05Jared Isaacman:trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade bringing you an expanding library of education with even more ways to sharpen your trading skills access new online courses insightful webcasts articles engaging videos and more all curated just for traders plus guided learning paths with content designed to fit your unique interests and no sifting to find exactly what you need so you can spend your time learning to trade brilliantly learn more at schwab.com slash trading. Every day as a small business owner feels like solving a puzzle. One moment you're cruising along and the next there's a shipping snag that has you scrambling.

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13:33Welcome back to Squawk Pod from CNBC, where in sports, it's serious business of any size. Our anchors today, Leslie Picker, Mike Santoli and Brian Sullivan. The world of alternative sports is exploding. And one of the latest examples is Big League Wiffle Ball. The New York Green Apples just became the first ever Big League Wiffle World Series champions. Defeating the Dallas Pandas in Florida last week. Joining us now is one of the team's investors. He's here to talk about the rise of alternative sports and much more from AI to media and collectibles. Gary Vaynerchuk, VaynerMedia CEO and VaynerX chairman.

14:10Great to see you, Gary. Always great to see you. Good morning. So much fun, this idea of Major League Wiffle Ball. My one disappointment in looking into it is you don't actually use a lawn chair for the stretch zone. But, I mean, how long has it been around? what's the business model of the league? I mean, the business model of the league is the business model of every league, right? Which is ultimately you want to build enough demand that you get significant TV rights to become exclusive, sponsorship. None of these alternative sports are creating any kind of new business model per se. Obviously, esports does some stuff.

14:45But I mean, look, we've all lived through watching UFC be a side conversation to a huge sport. I think people forget the 1982 NBA finals there was games that were taped delay because the NBA was in that position even pro football not too long ago Super Bowl 1 did not sell out its tickets so you know you have a teenage founder for this football league who had an idea and was grinding for several years and then caught enough attention from people like me Lazary, Blitzer, real investors, real thought leaders real operators and this last season crushed ratings on ESPN too. Will Smithy the greatest wiffleball player in the world.

15:25And stuff like me being on this and people start to dig in and slowly but surely, like every league that has ever been created, becomes. The thing that people are missing is we all grew up where cable and TV were the only options. And then you got satellite. But now we're in full-pledge streaming and you've got YouTube TV. And I was an early investor in pickleball, which has done incredibly well. Major League Pickleball teams now sell for tens of millions of dollars. has a real following. You have Annalie Waters, like real fame in the league and they can now make it because you can win on a small streaming service or social media and then build your way up to your ESPN deal or your Paramount deal or Netflix deal.

16:06And I think that Wiffle Ball, Sailing League I'm involved in, Padell, all of these things have a real shot.

16:14Jared Isaacman:Apple TV has a TV show about a former, a pickleball player now. That's right. Right? This is real. They're turning it into like the Ted Lasso of pickleball. That's right. And you know, for me, I think, you know, I aspire to buy the New York Jets. I don't know if you've heard, but these teams in the big leagues are starting to get really expensive. So I've got - What? Yeah, yeah. So I've got real work to do, but I think one of the ways I do that is by building out my portfolio. But Logan Rose and kids like that are, or a 60 year old that has a passion could start a league, you build on social media, and you could be stunned where this could go.

16:50But how much of a correlation is there to the higher valuations you see in traditional sports? We've been talking all week about the Lakers at$13 billion with the alternative sports world, this idea that there is so much capital flowing into the sports space. There's not enough supply of places to put it. Therefore, you're able to support maybe under the radar, less well-known sports in the process. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, is the argument when you say nowhere to put it I just want to make sure I fully understand you well they're just a scarcity value of traditional sports oh yeah for sure and like then even when I was a kid and like wanted to buy a team these were like a hundred hundreds of millions of dollars obviously capital everyone that watches this knows there's a lot more money in the system but of course and even if that wasn't the case I you know I didn't go into the fives and major league pickleball or or big league wiffle because like, oh darn, I can't get the Jets.

17:50I'm going to get the Jets. I went into it. Are you going to get the Jets? I'm going to get the Jets.

17:54Jared Isaacman:Okay, so let's talk about the Jets. Please. All right, so Woody Johnson and his brother buy the Jets for$700 million in the year 2000. I'm impressed. The LA Lakers reportedly being sold for$12.5 billion. That's a basketball team, Gary. Yes, I heard. So CNBC lists the valuation of the New York Jets, J-E-T-S, at$9.1 billion last year. That's about a billion a win. Yep. Sorry, I had to do it. By the way, I'll take nine wins. Okay. I'm talking about internal. Not per year. No, no, no, no. Don't take it back. I'm sorry. I have to say that. I'm the Chargers fan. Okay. Let me ask you this. If you were to buy the Jets today, what would they go for?

18:36Jared Isaacman:Because if the Lakers were worth 12 and a half or the Jets were 20, I think they could get it. I mean, now that... The Jets! But here's what happened. Fractualization happened. They've allowed PE. I mean, by the way, let's make this very valuable for everybody. This is what's about to happen with all assets. All assets are about to get fractionalized because the blockchain is about to change the world. Is it because the blockchain is about to change the world or do we need so much capital to get toward AI compute? We were talking about that all week. Because the blockchain is going to change the world.

19:04You're right. They'll change. Yes, that's the minor thing. the macro thing is within a decade on this incredible platform, what we're going to see is there's going to be an ability for small businesses to transact. When Rick Thompson has four pizza shops in Iowa and can get liquidity because there's an incredibly easy way for him to transact, and we have laws in place that allow for it, and this incredible technology that continues to get misunderstood because of the cynicism of crypto and NFTs, people don't understand the macro. But we've been hearing that for a long time, this idea that illiquid assets will be disintermediated by the blockchain.

19:42But it has happened yet. Sure. Why not? This show also in 2003 asked someone like me, like, we've been hearing about the Internet. Why hasn't it happened yet? Because we talk about stuff at nausea before it hits maturity. Do you know how many times ESPN talked about LeBron not winning a title yet? And then he did. We are incredibly impatient. We like to talk about short-term things. And the reality is, is anybody who's got a long view and who understands consumer behavior and technology. Now, I guess the government, I mean, we have a very interesting political spectrum. So if it swings too hard and it becomes politicized, it could slow it down.

20:19But technology is undefeated in the end. The other thing that's certainly propping up or expanding the value and opportunity in sports is betting. I mean, can you bet on these alternative sports? I think these sports, the answer is I don't believe so. So I'm sure, I mean, listen, I don't know if you've heard about Polly Mark and Kyle Shea. You could bet on him sneezing in the next minute.

20:40Jared Isaacman:Yeah, but I could make that happen. No kidding. That doesn't mean you can't bet on it. I could affect the outcome. Which is why all of that is going to be a very, very challenging thing to navigate for all of us in society regulation. the leagues I would say that major league pickle is the kind of league that within two or three years I could see a FanDuel or DraftKings or Fanatics bet come along and say hey this thing's ready and then you got to put in all the checks and balances I'm undereducated on what those checks and balances are but I know that the threshold when I look at the platforms when I'm studying behavior you got to get to a certain point to get in you think 20 billion maybe not 20 billion for the Jets realistically though Gary if the Lakers are going to sell for 12 and a half and CNBC values the Jets at 9.1 billion what would realistically in an NFL franchise be worth today well not the Cowboys what do the Seahawks just go for nine nine yeah I think I think the Jets are 15 I do because the New York media market they also don't have a terrible stadium but they also own half of it yeah right so it might be a terrible stadium because they tried to appease both and they appease no one, but they still own the stadium.

21:53The cool thing is when I was born in the Soviet Union, when I came to America, I came to Queens. And the thought that, and I have a crazy story because of what my mom needed me a Jets jersey, it's really cool, but we don't have time for that. When I buy the Jets, and I'm a Jersey voice, this is challenging for me, but I do dream about moving them to Queens. The Jets need their own identity, and that I will take care of. All right, get on it. Gary. There you go. Appreciate it.

22:19Jared Isaacman:Have the best day. Go back to the lighter green. I don't like the shiny, darker green. Go back to the lighter green. I agree. The name of the green. The retro. Nameth green. What is the name? Nameth green. That's what I call it. Oh, you call it that. That's not the actual color. Well, we'll work on that as well. We'll rebrand that, you and I. I'll see you at the, I'm going to go to the Packers-Jets game. I will be there. At the Meadowlands. I will be there. Watch the Packers win. I'm going to go to Nashville week one. We're going to stick it to you, Salah. even though Robert Sala is one of my dear friends and I love it.

22:47We're going to stick it to you, Sala. Jets, Titans, that should burn up the ratings.