Davos 2026: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon 1/23/26

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0:57They have an environment where they think they really can make progress growing their businesses. You've got technology innovation that's helping people in their businesses, and CEOs are very focused in that. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. A conversation spanning business sentiment, consumer credit, and of course, the markets. I think we're set up where we have the possibility for a stronger growth trajectory for the next few years. Business people around the world are unleashed, he says. But there is always a risk assessment. What slows them down, and we're talking big multinationals, what slows them down is when there's uncertainty.

1:36And some of the noise around geopolitics creates uncertainty. One of the things I try to do is I always try to step back and say, OK, what's noise, what's actually substantively going on? Solomon talks geopolitics, AI investment, and the crisis facing many Americans. The point that affordability is a big issue and we need to get at it, I think is correct. I don't believe that a 10 % credit card cap would be constructive in that context. I'm CNBC producer Cameron Costa. Squawk Pod reports from Davos 2026. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon begins right now.

2:19at the world economic forum executives from all industries stop by the squawk box set bank of america's brian moynahan soccer legend david beckham bill gates anthropics founder dario amode i mean iconic conversations and they're all by the way wrapped up neatly as podcast episodes in your Squawk Pod feed. So the biggest minds in tech, business, politics, and philanthropy are in Switzerland, bumping shoulders in the cold with Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Joe, in fact, interviewed President Trump while they were both in the Alps. And that's where we're going to start this next interview.

3:01President Trump suggesting he knows who he's going to pick as his next Fed chair nominee when I spoke with the president. In fact, I mentioned Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's idea that the administration might not want a new Fed chair who gets nervous about inflation when the country sees hot economic growth numbers, if those numbers are the result of a productivity boom brought on by AI or by big beautiful bill or other deregulation, other policies. And here's what the president told me. Right now, if you announce great numbers, the stock market goes down because they say, oh, they're going to raise the rate, they're going to kill it, which really stops you from having any great runs.

3:41And we want to have a great run. So we're going to be at five and a half or something. They're predicting. I don't know. It's much higher than they thought. But let's say we're at five and a half. We could be a 10 or we could be a 12. We could be a 15. Yeah, there was it was funny on Koushi yesterday. Did you see where they were saying what questions I was betting on what words that the president would use? and someone sent it to me and then I didn't look at it.

4:08Andrew Ross Sorkin:By the way, there was something that I had done recently where my son sent it to me and now people are betting on what you're going to say. It's wild. It is. It is crazy at this point. 8 % nominal growth. We can ask our next guest whether that... It happened once. Can it actually happen? I don't know. David Solomon is here, CEO of Goldman Sachs. We've got a lot of ground to cover with you. That was not where we were going to start, But let's see if we can go. Let's start right there. Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. Welcome. Welcome. Nice to see you. Nice to see you guys. Always nice to be here with you guys.

4:39We have a confluence of some very stimulative things that make us pretty optimistic about the level of growth that we could see in 2026. I don't know that I would have thrown out, you know, 8 percent nominal, though. Yeah, I wouldn't throw out 8 percent nominal. But I do think that that, you know, our view on nominal growth this year would be higher than the consensus. You have very, very strong fiscal stimulus. You obviously have the things in the bill that are coming through. You have some stimulus that comes from the deregulatory environment that the administration has created. We obviously have continued AI infrastructure spend that's very, very significant.

5:15Plus, you've got productivity gains coming as AI is implemented into the enterprise. So it's a relatively constructive environment. And barring, you know, in my mind, some sort of an exogenous event or a change in sentiment that's created either by geopolitics or, you know, some other speed bump that we don't see. I, you know, I think the nominal growth that we see will be out of the consensus. So I think the tailwinds are pretty constructive in that front. You know, do you see the expense? I keep hearing about the expensing thing that factories are that previously wouldn't have been built or being built.

5:48Someone was going to make batteries. They didn't even make batteries for their own equipment before. Now, because they can write it off immediately, they're actually starting breaking ground on a factory. Well, I think the expense depreciation benefit is a big benefit to spur investment. There's a lot of talk about investment from U.S. companies and from foreign companies in. I think one of the things that we're trying to do, I think everybody should be doing, is tracking what actual investment's occurring and how it's occurring. You know, these things, Joe, and you know this, they take time to build factories, plan factories, actually get them in place, get them online takes time.

6:23And so we're at the beginning of what is the potential for a much more significant investment cycle.

6:28Andrew Ross Sorkin:When you're tracking it, what numbers? It's early. In other words, right now, it's it's it's more talk than it's actually happening. But there are a lot of people making significant commitments. And, you know, as people follow through, that is a further tailwind for growth. When you talk about the possibility for a multi-year run, you know, I think we're set up where we have the possibility for a stronger growth trajectory for the next few years. We're set up for that. That might not happen. A bunch of exogenous things could soften it. But that's I think we're set up with a better possibility for that than we've had in quite some time.

6:59Andrew Ross Sorkin:Can you square the circle for me? So the economy looks strong. Yet, on one end we had the Mark Carney speech where the whole world is breaking apart and there'll be new partnerships and complete sort of reshaping of power in the world. And on the other end, the president makes this deal with NATO last night and the market goes up and some people are saying, you know, this is just another great example of new cooperation. What's going on here underneath the sheets? Well, we talked about what's going on in the economy, particularly the U.S. economy, you know, underneath the sheets. We're in a geopolitical environment that's more fragile than it's been for some time.

7:42We have a president that's got a clear view about how he wants to drive an agenda, and he's got a certain style in the context of the way he drives that. I think markets don't like uncertainty. And so if you just look back over the last couple of days, there's been a variety of of narratives that have created a little bit more uncertainty and then there have been narratives that have followed up that seem to have taken the uncertainty out. And so I think what's interesting right now is the business environment sets up very well. Business people feel unleashed all over the world and want to invest in their businesses and grow their businesses.

8:17They have an environment where they think they really can make progress growing their businesses. You've got technology innovation that's helping people in their businesses and CEOs are very focused on that. Are those US companies or around the world? I think it's around the world. I think what slows them down, and we're talking big multinationals, what slows them down is when there's uncertainty. And some of the noise around geopolitics creates uncertainty. One of the things I try to do is I always try to step back and say, okay, what's noise? What's actually substantively going on? And I think that's a helpful lens.

8:43But on a day-to-day basis, when you're listening to the news, when you're listening to the speeches, if you're sitting here, there's going to be noise mixed in with the substance. Is it compartmentalized between economic issues and security issues? And I think there's a lot of overlap. I think maybe that escapes us sometime, whether it's Venezuela. That could be really positive for the Western Hemisphere if their oil starts coming out of the ground again. Think about the Middle East and what happened with the peace deal and what could happen in Iran and how the Middle East could play out. Our discussion was whether Greenland was worth it, whether bringing this up, making a big deal about it, spooking the markets, worrying that NATO is going to dissolve because of an attack on a sovereign country, was all that worth it?

9:28Would it be worth it if we did get a golden dome and had a greater control of what happens in the Arctic Circle, which is so important right now? Well, again, let's get to the substantive issue that you're highlighting, Joe. The substantive issue for the U.S. and Europe is Arctic security. That's the substantive issue. If we come out of this better with a strengthening of Arctic security for the U.S. and Europe, that will be a good thing for the world. So I don't have to debate every discussion and every way that we get there. None of us were thinking about this on Inauguration Day. No one was worried about Arctic security.

10:02Arctic security is something that's worth thinking about. There are different ways to get there, but if we wind up with a better structure around that, that would be good both for Europe and the U.S. But we don't know at this point what the deal looks like. But it's both security, but you can't have economic prosperity without security. No, security is a very, very important of economic prosperity, for sure.

10:26Andrew Ross Sorkin:I'm curious what you do think, then, of the Mark Carney speech, because clearly he's saying that Canada may ultimately have to align to some degree with China. So our neighbor aligning with China in any way is something that historically we would have done everything to prevent. Yeah, I, you know, again, I think we're talking about some long cycle structural changes. You know, I wouldn't let one speech at Davos at this moment in time drive a conclusion as to where things wind up. The U.S. and Canada are massively economically entwined. Canada is a hugely important ally to the U.S. I'd watch to see how this plays out.

11:00I wouldn't glean too much from the speech, but it obviously was an important speech. You know, he said some things that certainly will get people on both sides, you know, thinking about, you know, where we are. I think a de-escalation and a focus on the important relationship we have would be very constructive.

11:14Andrew Ross Sorkin:Let me ask a couple other questions. So the president, though, has been going after Wall Street in some very unique ways. One on the credit card piece and then the other, interestingly, on some of the big firms that are basically buying up homes in America and either renting them out or reselling them. Yesterday, he made a point of explaining, I think, just how depreciation works and how, you know, if you buy 500 homes, you can depreciate it as a company. You buy a home by yourself. You can't do that at all. What do you think of what's happening here? So he's touching on with these with these topics, he's touching on issues that are real issues.

11:49I think affordability is a real issue in the United States. You know, with respect to the credit card cap, the first thing I'd say is that you're so happy you're out of the credit card business. But stepping back, just as an observer of markets and someone who has some understanding of the business, I don't think that's a good idea. I think it would significantly constrain credit for most Americans. Meaning that it wouldn't be offered. Yeah, the point that affordability is a big issue and we need to get at it, I think is correct. I don't believe that a 10 % credit card cap would be constructive in that context.

12:23Andrew Ross Sorkin:Brian Moynihan told us that if that goes through that 10 % cap, you would have to have a credit score well into the 700s as a consumer to get access to credit. Absolutely. I'm not clear on the exact cutoff, but I don't know, three quarters, 80 % of American consumers would be constrained in credit that's available to them. And look, a lot of people, people obviously run credit card balances where they pay interest. But there are a lot of people that use their credit cards to run the working capital during the month based on their paycheck. where they're actually not paying the interest, but they need the access to credit in order to run the working capital on a month to month basis with their paycheck.

12:59And so that I don't think that's a constructive path to get at that cost.

13:03Andrew Ross Sorkin:What about the housing piece? Housing is a real issue. I've talked, you know, I've talked with you guys on TV before about housing. I think it's a it's a complicated, multifaceted issue. I do think the president made some very good points around how how the structure depreciation works with some of this. But to really get at the housing issue, I think we've got to get at supply. I think we've got to get at things that create incentives or make it easier for people to afford down payments on homes. I think one of the things that's been a big issue is the price of homes based on the price of construction.

13:35The lack of supply has made the prices higher and people don't have the down payments. I think there's some interesting ideas.

13:40Andrew Ross Sorkin:There's talk of allowing people to effectively invade their 401k plan to do that. And some people think that's a great thing and some people think it's a horrible idea. I think it's an interesting idea. I think you've got to think carefully through the consequences of that. and how you would do it and how you would make it work. But at the end of the day, home ownership and the long run people live in their homes has been a great source of savings and stability for Americans. I think things that we can do to accelerate that and make it more accessible will be very positive. But wouldn't this help on the supply issue?

14:08Andrew Ross Sorkin:Because if Blackstone can't buy it, that takes a big buyer out of the market and should create some more supply. I mean, it's not real supply, but if you think about just the constraints on who's bidding for the property. At the margin, that has to be true, Andrew. But remember, there are all different forms of institutional capital that buy homes in the United States, not just the public companies, the couple of public companies. There's all sorts of institutional capital formation that supports the accumulation of housing in the United States. And so the bigger issue, I think, that we have to really get at, I'm not saying that that's not an appropriate issue to look at, the bigger issue is supply and the availability of housing stock.

14:45Andrew Ross Sorkin:Okay. David, it's great to see you. Thank you for coming in. Thank you very much. Glad to be here. Thank you. Absolutely.

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16:39Andrew Ross Sorkin:And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card.

16:50Thank you for listening to this special Squawk Pod reports from Davos. This is just one of our many interviews from the World Economic Forum. I promise it's worth following Squawk Pod wherever you're listening now. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross-Orkin, usually from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. But one week a year, they're in the snowy Alps. Squawk Pod is produced by me, Cameron Costa, and Zach Felici. Julie Trass is our editor. Have a great day.

17:29I want to grow the game of soccer and give every kid the chance to play. What would you like the power to do? Bank of America champion street soccer advocate Kyle Martino

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