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Squawk Pod - Episode Summary: Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Plan & Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick (9/5/25)
Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts of Squawk Pod delve into significant news surrounding Tesla's proposal for Elon Musk's staggering $1 trillion compensation plan, the U.S. government's decision to lower tariffs on Japanese imports, and the implications of the latest job report on the economy and Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions.
Key Discussions
- Tesla's $1 Trillion Compensation Plan for Elon Musk
- Proposal Overview: Tesla has submitted a proposal to shareholders that includes a compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk potentially worth nearly $1 trillion, contingent on achieving ambitious performance milestones.
- Chairwoman's Insight: Robyn Denholm, Tesla's Chairwoman, emphasizes that the plan aims to keep Musk “motivated and focused” on delivering results for the company.
- Milestones:
- 12 performance milestones linked to creating $7.5 trillion in shareholder value.
- Targets include reaching an adjusted EBITDA and delivering a million robo-taxis.
- Shareholder Implications: Musk receives payments only if he meets these performance metrics, highlighting a pay-for-performance structure designed to align Musk's compensation with shareholder interests.
- Interview with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick
- Tariff Policy Changes: Lutnick discusses the U.S.'s plan to lower tariffs on Japanese imports from 25% to 15%, as part of a new deal wherein Japan invests $550 billion in the U.S. economy.
- Economic Impact: The Secretary forecasts significant positive impacts on employment and investment in America, attributing future growth to the tariff strategy and anticipated increased infrastructure projects, including the potential revival of the Alaska pipeline.
- Analysis of Recent Job Reports
- Jobs Report Insights: The latest data indicates only 22,000 new jobs were created in August, significantly below expectations, with an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.
- Market Reactions: These figures suggest a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings, reflecting a more cautious economic outlook.
- Sector Performance: Notable job losses in manufacturing and federal sectors raise concerns about the broader implications of ongoing tariff policies.
- Controversies and Political Dynamics
- Mortgage Investigations: A ProPublica investigation reveals multiple Trump cabinet members may have been involved in questionable mortgage practices, raising ethical questions in Washington.
- RFK Jr. Hearing: A contentious Senate hearing with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. occurs, where he faces scrutiny over vaccine policies and his tenure at the CDC.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla's aggressive compensation strategy could reshape executive pay practices, tying executive pay directly to performance metrics that favor shareholders.
- Lowering tariffs on Japan is part of a broader strategy that Lutnick believes will strengthen the U.S. economy significantly.
- Disappointing job growth signals potential challenges for the Federal Reserve and could lead to shifts in monetary policy as officials respond to slowing labor market conditions.
- Ongoing investigations into the Trump administration's actions, including housing and vaccine policy, reflect a politically charged environment that could influence public perception and electoral outcomes.
Conclusion The episode provides a multi-faceted view of current economic policies, corporate governance issues, and the implications of political actions on the market, underscoring the interconnectedness of business decisions and government strategies in shaping economic outcomes.
For a deeper dive into these discussions, listen to the full podcast episode available on major streaming platforms.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Bring in show music please. This is Squawk Pod. I'm CNBC producer Claire Odomodi. Today, big news from Tesla. The company has submitted a proposal for Elon Musk's compensation moving forward. A trillion dollars is on the table if he delivers on some eye-popping milestones. Chair of Tesla, Robin Dunham says motivating Musk is key. What were the right goals to be setting? What was the right balance between the motivation and shareholder value creation and what were the right milestones to be putting in place in order to actually create the right plan. 12 milestones and$7.5 trillion in shareholder value.
0:43It is about shooting for the moon, if you like. A big payout, but big results for shareholders first. This is as pay for performance, in my mind, as it comes. Then, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, tariffs, a tech CEO dinner, and the vision in the White House. And that's what this whole cabinet has to do. They have to get rid of people who are against the president, against the elected leader of the United States of America, and get people on side who just want America to win. Plus, today's are the big headlines, like a fiery hearing between RFK Jr. and the Senate, and a jobs report to remember what the latest BLS data could mean for the Federal Reserve's next decision.
1:25We're now thinking about three cuts this year, 75 basis points, worse of cuts. It's Friday, September 5th. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand Becky by in 3, 2, 1. Cue it, please. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Andrew Ross-Sorkin. Joe is out today. Happy Friday. We made it. Holiday-shortened week. You're only here for four days. And yet, it feels like we've crammed a lot into these four days. There's been a lot going on. Yeah, there has. And there's even more today. Back to school, back to business.
2:01The S &P 500 up by 12 points after the S &P 500 set a new record yesterday. You were looking at some pretty strong gains across the board yesterday. But again, the S &P 500, I think, closing above 6 ,500 for the first time ever, looking at record levels. And that has a lot of people thinking, OK, either hooray, here we go, or oh, my gosh, what do you do when you get to these levels, depending on who you talk to and their risk assessment of things. Thanks. President Trump putting some more pressure on Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign over potential problems with multiple mortgages. Now it appears some of the highest members of the Trump administration may be in the same boat.
2:38And we're joined right now by Eamon Javers, who joins us with that story. Good morning. Yeah. Good morning, Andrew. ProPublica taking a look at the mortgage records of key Trump administration officials given President Trump's allegations against Fed board member Lisa Cook, and the publication found that at least three of Trump's cabinet members call multiple homes their primary residences on mortgages. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-Deremer entered into two primary residence mortgages in quick succession, including for a second home near a country club in Arizona. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has primary residence mortgages in New Jersey and Washington, D.C.
3:17Lee Zeldin, the Environmental Protection Agency administrator has one primary residence mortgage in Long Island and another in Washington, D.C. That's according to ProPublica, which is citing loan records. All three cabinet members denied wrongdoing to ProPublica. And in a statement, a White House spokesperson said this is just another hit piece from a left wing dark money group that constantly attempts to smear President Trump's incredible cabinet members. Unlike Fed Governor Lisa corrupt Cook, who blatantly and intentionally committed mortgage fraud. Secretary DeRimmer, Secretary Duffy and Administrator Zeldin own multiple residences and they have followed the law and they are fully compliant with all ethical obligations.
3:59And in a statement to CNBC, a Department of Transportation spokesperson said after being confirmed as the Secretary of Transportation, Sean purchased a home in Washington, D.C., where he works full time. The home in D.C. is not a rental, investment or vacation property. The same bank holds both mortgages and was fully informed of Secretary Duffy's new employment location and need for a D.C. residence. So, guys, this is one of those where you're going to start to see this surface in D.C. Now that this mortgage issue has been raised in the Lisa Cook case, you can expect that both sides will start doing oppo research on each other.
4:34And I expect this will filter out into the congressional campaigns going into next year as well. So just so I understand, and maybe you can explain the rules to us, when is it OK to have multiple mortgages listed as a primary residence and when is it not? Well, that's the question. And the question is whether it's intentional and whether it's fraudulent against the bank that gave the mortgage to the person under the assumption that that person would be living there as a primary residence. From the bank's perspective, a rental property is more risky than a primary property because, you know, renters do more damage.
5:12It might not be looked after as well if the owner's not actually living there. So banks want to know which one is your primary residence and which one is not and which one is a rental. So in each case, there's going to be nuance there. In the case of one bank holding two mortgages where they're both listed as primary, you know, the bank clearly knows this person owns two houses and what the situation is. is that fraud? Probably not. But I think if you're a politician or any kind of powerful figure in Washington today, you should just assume that somebody is going through all your mortgage records looking for any hint of inconsistency.
5:49Okay. Just looking some of this up, I looked this up last week or the week before. And just to go back over it, there are some exceptions where you can have multiple mortgages. I think primary is that the bank knows about it and the bank signs off about it, but relocation, if you're moving to a new city for a job and you're buying a new home before selling your old one, your lender may allow it. If you're buying for a dependent, particularly if it's an aging parent or a disabled adult child, you can do that. If you're co-signing for a primary residence mortgage to help a friend or family member purchase their own home while you also have a mortgage on your primary residence, or if you're an active duty service member of the military, you can have some of these.
6:31But I think the primary issue is going to be, did the bank know about it? Do the banks know about some of these issues? But it is going to get, I think you're right, Eamon, to say that this is going to be the new witch hunt, for lack of a better term. They're going to be looking at everybody. A lot of people in D.C. do have multiple homes because they live back in their district with their family, live in the district. If they don't have a rental, if they own a property there, this is going to get interesting. I think this is going to be something that is on everybody's radar screen. Yeah. I mean, I would just imagine that everybody who's campaigning next year should look at their mortgage documents and make sure they're squared away.
7:10The question here is whether someone, yeah, the question here is whether someone achieves some kind of improper benefit by lying intentionally on their mortgage forms, right? Did you get a discount on your mortgage that you didn't deserve, lower interest rate, because you said this affirmatively and it's not true, right? So that's the question. And there's a lot of, as you say, Becky, there's a lot of officials in D.C. who are coming in from home districts, administration officials who just come in for a year or two, and so they've got a new residence here and they're switching homes, all that complication.
7:44So, Eamon, can we just call a spade a spade then for a second? Because at least from the outside... No, this is Washington. No, no. At least from the outside, and maybe this is unfair to say, when you look at the Lisa Cook documentation, it raises a lot more questions, in truth to me at least, than the three examples that were just put up in the past 24 hours, which of course are now being used by Democrats to try to suggest that this is some kind of government weaponization. Which, by the way, I think we can all agree could still be a government weaponization, if you will, at the same time that she could have done something improper and possibly even illegal.
8:21And so the question is how we're supposed to look at this. And the reason I'm mentioning this is I don't want the viewer to look at these three examples and go, well, everybody's doing it when maybe they're not doing it. And when you look at her situation, I think there are at least reasonable questions to ask. And by the way, no answers have been provided thus far. And by the way, the difference, I think, in her situation is she was renting out at least one of those properties and saying that it was her primary residence. I mean, that's a huge distinction. It was that and that they were done within weeks of each other.
8:52So you had to know what your primary residence was. The banks knew that was a separate issue, but you can't, for tax purposes, let alone for mortgage issues, for tax purposes, you can't claim two homes as a primary residence either. Yeah, facially, the Cook case seems to have a lot more smoke to it than these other cases do. but that doesn't mean that oppo researchers in Washington don't have some mortgage records to look at for hundreds of people today. Yeah, I bet you're going to get a lot of it. And by the way, Eamon, you got your wish. You got to get up at 6 a.m. with us again. I know. There's no place I'd rather be, Becky.
9:27We know and we love you. We do. Amy Jabbers, thank you, sir. I love you back. Thanks for waking up. Things got heated at a Washington hearing where senators questioned Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy. Jellica Peebles joins us now with more on that story. Good morning. Morning, Andrew. Well, it was certainly fiery. Kennedy faced three hours of questioning, and Democrats in particular pressed him on everything from changes to vaccine policy to the recent shakeup at the CDC. Kennedy defended his overhaul of the CDC's vaccine advisory group, blaming that panel for the growing childhood immunization schedule that's contributed to the, quote, over-medicalization of American children.
10:06Colorado Senator Michael Bennett expressed concern for the lack of concrete vaccine guidance, especially as the school year gets underway. I'm asking the questions for Mr. Kennedy on behalf of parents and schools and teachers all over the United States of America who deserve so much better than your leadership. That's what this conversation is about, Mr. Chairman. Senator, they deserve the truth, and that's what we're going to give them for the first time in the history of that agency. Kennedy also claimed that the reason he fired CDC Director Susan Menares was because she admitted to being an untrustworthy person.
10:44And of course, Menares' lawyers denied that accusation, guys. You know, there are so many issues that have come up from this. And I think the blowback that you're getting right now, the White House is still defending him. President Trump is still defending him, but there is some pushback coming from some of these Republican senators. And I think that's where you get a little bit more concern. I also wonder if there's a point where President Trump gets a little tired of the headlines. And, you know, he had said himself he didn't see the hearings, but he heard he did very well. Admitted he had some ideas that are pretty different.
11:17And I just wonder if there's a point where RFK Jr.'s agenda conflicts with President Trump's agenda, especially as a president who was very proud of Operation Warp Speed and some of the innovation and advances that we saw in his first term during COVID. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out. Like you mentioned at this point, the president does still seem to support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in that position. And I think later this month, we could learn more as we see that big Maha Commission report that they're supposed to release. Remember, Kennedy has been talking about, you know, being able to pinpoint the cause of autism.
11:54So that could be another flashpoint that we could look forward to. Cheese will be next. Don't go anywhere. After this break, you'll hear from the chair of Tesla, Robin Denholm. Breaking news this Friday morning, the company has submitted to shareholders a new compensation package for Elon Musk designed to motivate him and retain him as CEO. A$1 trillion payout hinges on some lofty ambitions and 12 key milestones. It is a very ambitious plan. The 2018 plan was to get to billions of dollars of market cap. This plan is to get to trillions of dollars of market cap and trillions of dollars of shareholder value creation.
12:40SquawkPod will be right back.
12:45This is SquawkPod. Up in Andrew. Hugh. You're watching Squatbox right here on CNBC. I'm Andrew Ross Sorkin, along with Becky Quick on this Friday morning. Joe is off. We have some breaking news we want to get to right now. And this is a biggie. And it's coming from Tesla. The company's board calling on shareholders to approve a new long-term incentive package. This is a compensation package for Elon Musk. And it is a remarkable and the size of it all is just spectacular to even contemplate. In a proxy just filed, the company details a performance award that it says is designed to retain and motivate Musk.
13:23Much like Musk's 2018 performance award, he will only be paid if he delivers on goals, including reaching adjusted EBITDA targets and rolling out product offerings, such as the delivery of one million robo-taxis and AI bots into commercial operation. He gets nothing if he doesn't hit the numbers. It's very similar to the 2018 program in this respect. If Musk wants to receive the full award, he needs to create. Are you ready for this? Seven point five trillion dollars. That's with a T in market value for shareholders. That means that Tesla would have to reach a market cap of eight point five trillion dollars, by the way, which was twice the size of NVIDIA today, three to four times the size of Amazon today.
14:14and it's, you know, mind-boggling. We're going to walk through the numbers in just a moment because the way it's set up is he will collect effectively 1 % of the company. So this package in total could potentially be worth more than a trillion dollars if he were to get to these numbers. So I want you to look at the screen right now because you'll understand what's happening. the first tranche of any of any income he could collect would only come if the company effectively from a market cap perspective were to double in size right now it's a little over a trillion dollars tranche one is at two trillion dollars not only do you have to capture two trillion dollars you have to capture one of the metrics and this includes an EBITDA figure how many robo taxis they sell, how many robots they sell.
15:10And so he doesn't meet any of those metrics. He doesn't get it. If you don't meet the metrics, you get nothing. So this is, again, and I will almost repeat myself from when we were together in Davos, 2018. This is, to some degree, the most shareholder friendly deal you can get. He only gets paid if it actually works. He gets nothing if it doesn't work. And this is I thought this was going to be a make good for the stuff he never got. Does he ever get any of that? So as part of this, my reading of it is that he is going to be paid. What they've also asked for is an opportunity to pay him the previous package.
15:51So this is, this is on, just to be 100 % clear, this is on top of the package that was created back in 2018, that then the Delaware court struck down. They have since moved to Texas. And it's also worth noting the law in Delaware changed such that had the package been put together when after the law had changed he would have been able to get that package so what's going to happen now is that is still on appeal we'll see what happens with that but effectively they're asking for permission from shareholders to pay that so that's still on we're talking now that's a retroactive situation permission from shareholders or this or they don't think they're required no in Texas no no no in this instance, they again need to ask for permission for this package.
16:37But this is a go forward package that effectively is the next decade. So let's keep him involved. This is Elon Musk is 54 years old. If you would like him to be meaningfully engaged for the next 10 years till he's 64. Right. And by the way, there's components in here that include succession planning in what's called they gate the last two packages or tranches, even if he gets there. Unless they have a successor set up, a succession. Exactly. And the other thing that's fascinating about this package is that when you look at it, he effectively has to hold the shares after he receives them for another seven and a half years.
17:19So it's not just that he has to actually hit the numbers. The company has to, on a sustainable basis. Stay at those. stay at some of those. It's not that they have to stay at those. But he can't cash out. But he can't cash out. So if the company, you know, becomes a$7 trillion company and then goes back to being a$1 trillion company, he has not improved his lot in life. I spoke to Tesla's chair, Robin Denholm, who's been working on this. And this has been going on for months and months and months. And the goals are ambitious. And let me show you what you had to say about them. It's very important to us that we are true to our values, which is really being super ambitious and this plan actually is emblematic of that.
18:10We've got 12 tranches in the plan. The first one in terms of market cap is actually doubling the size of the company today and And we have, you know, the first in terms of the vehicle side is actually getting to 20 million vehicles that are produced and delivered. And we're only at just over eight. So to me, the plan is super ambitious. And that is what motivates Elon. So in coming up with a plan that will incent, motivate, have his time, focus and attention on Tesla, we needed to come up with a plan that was super ambitious. how much how realistic is the plan in your mind versus and you use the word um in the letter aspirational aspirational goals yes very aspirational and so yes uh is it realistic i mean you yourself and many others when we put out the 2018 plan thought that they were ridiculous numbers and so from our perspective uh it is about uh uh shooting for the moon if you like and really coming up with the ambition to the vision that we've put out in terms of the master plan for and actually shooting for that and having the whole company focused on delivering against that plan.
19:35And so just so I understand the details of this plan, there are these different milestones in terms of the market cap of the company. So, for example, you effectively have to double. You've got to get it to$2 trillion for the first milestone. But then, for example, like the EBITDA number has to 3x what it is today. Yes. So, again, we've constructed this plan so that shareholders get outsized returns. For us, it is all about shareholder value creation. And that plan reflects that. So in terms of the first tranche, as I said, it is doubling the market cap of the company. We're just over a trillion dollars today.
20:21The first milestone is at two trillion dollars. And the top milestone, if you like, the tranche 12 is at eight and a half trillion dollars. And I am saying trillion dollars. It is a very ambitious plan. plan. The 2018 plan was to get to billions of dollars of market cap. This plan is to get to trillions of dollars of market cap and trillions of dollars of shareholder value creation. How much of this is about incentivizing Elon as it relates to his ability to have more voting control of the company? That's something that he's talked a lot about for a long time. Yes, I mean, clearly, as you're constructing a plan where you want to keep the CEO motivated and focused on delivering for the company and for shareholders, you need to delve into what motivates him.
21:17And obviously, he's been very public about getting additional voting powers so that as he develops the AI products and the AI deliverables and the optimist robots and the robots to come after that, that he wants to make sure that evil can't be done with those things. And so having some sort of voting power in order to prevent bad things happening is a motivator for him. So the special committee obviously took that into account as we were working through what were the right goals to be setting, what was the right balance between the motivation and shareholder value creation, And what were the right milestones to be putting in place in order to actually create the right plan to lift the company and to create the most valuable company in history?
22:13And just so we understand the details, these shares are restricted for five years, but then they have to be held for seven and a half years. and he's only capturing the upside from where the shares trade as opposed to the way an option would work, correct? Yes, the way we termed this plan, we looked at many different options and alternatives in terms of the types of tools we would use in terms of the plan itself. And we landed on the best plan possible, which is a performance-based restricted stock award. And so how that works is that it is restricted stock, but he only gets the voting power as he hits the milestones.
23:03And then he vests in those for the first five tranches, whatever he's achieved in the five year period of time, he will vest those at the seven and a half year mark. There's a sentence which I think some people may focus on, which is the word succession that you hope over time that you can come up with a succession plan and incent Elon for a succession plan? What does that look like in your mind? So the board takes our responsibility around succession planning for the CEO, but also for other members of the executive team very, very seriously. And we have a succession plan in place or a plan for a succession if something untoward were to happen to Elon.
23:47So that is just good governance from our perspective. But also, when I speak to shareholders regularly, succession planning does come up. And so, from our perspective, putting a gate, if you like, to the last two tranches of the compensation plan, the 2025 compensation plan, was good governance. But also, telling shareholders that we are focused on it, that Elon's focused on it. Something that I discussed with Robin, you know, there are lots of CEOs. And I remember talking to Jeff Bezos last year about this. You could reference a Warren Buffett if you like to. There are a lot of CEOs who have, you know, gotten early shares in their company.
24:30They own the stake in their company. They hardly paid themselves anything. And that was it. And the incentive was that their stake in the company would continue to grow, that they didn't need to have additional incentive in this kind of way. And by the way, that's what a critic would say, would say, what does he need to be paid anything for? He has a huge stake in Tesla already, and he should be continuing to work because that unto itself should be the incentive. The challenge, and I'm going to be sympathetic to Elon in this case, is he has these sort of multiple interests, which we're seeing, right?
25:07So he's got SpaceX, and he's got Neuralink, and he's got the boring. And so how do you make sure this guy is focused squarely on Tesla? And they're trying to do it in a almost incentive way, as opposed to a, some kind of contractual way or something else. Um, there's also one other piece. I mean, it feels contractual. This is, you're not going to get paid these big payouts unless you stick around. This is as, as we said, this is as pay for performance in my mind, uh, as, as it comes, having said that, obviously a judge didn't like the way this was set up back in 2018. The law in Delaware has since changed.
25:40Texas, obviously, I think would be more favorable towards us anyway. I'm not sympathetic to the judge in Delaware. I think shareholders have spoken pretty clearly that they want Elon around. They want him paid in this manner. And I think the Delaware court has done a disservice to those shareholders. However, what you just brought up is making me think about something. And I'm kind of thinking this through as you're saying it. I mean, what if Jeff Bezos had gone off and started Amazon Web Services as a separate company and not built that into Amazon? What if, you know, you think about what if Warren Buffett had taken every major acquisition he purchased and turned it into a separate company?
26:18It's a different thing to try and keep the attention of someone who's basically like ADD, who goes off and does different things. And everything Elon does, I'm a fan of all these businesses that he's built. I think the stuff that he's done is beyond unbelievable. That's a nice segue to the other piece of breaking news this morning, which is that when if you look in the proxy, there is a shareholder proposal this morning that has been included in the proxy this year. So shareholders will actually vote on it effectively for Tesla to take an investment stake in XAI. There were a number of proposals on this topic, shareholder proposals on this topic.
26:58We are putting it on the ballot, as we would do for any proposals that come in from shareholders that meet the criteria in order to be eligible to be put on the ballot. And so we are letting shareholders vote on whether or not we should invest in XAI. and then the company will and the board will take that into account in our deliberations, whether it's positive or a negative vote on that proposal. Have you been thinking, though, about investing in XAI? And is this something that you really wanted to go to the shareholders to get their permission effectively to do first, given invariably the conflict that could be claimed?
Read the full transcript
27:42Obviously, it's a related party and we take our responsibilities very, very seriously on the related party front. We have a very robust process of transactions that happen between related parties. Obviously, if there was ever an investment contemplated in a related party, we would at the board level take our related party policy into account. This is a shareholder proposal, and we will let shareholders voice their position on whether or not we should take an interest or invest in XAI. Interesting, though, that they're going to take this to the shareholders and consider it. It didn't say they do what the shareholders say.
28:30They will put it into their considerations. It probably depends on if it's a close vote or not. I think if it's a yes. If it's an overwhelming yes. I think there would be a likelihood that they make some form of an investment. I think if it's a no, I think it actually makes it hard for the board to actually make an investment because of the related party issue. Next on SquawkPod, President Trump's tariffs challenged in a lower court. He is asking the Supreme Court to step in to save them. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says either way, change is here to stay. Everything we just did with Japan, that holds, right?
29:03That's durable, that stays. Europe, that stays. These are autos, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors. Those all stay. Plus, the August jobs report, a key metric for the Federal Reserve's next decision on interest rates. Right after this break.
29:23You're listening to Squawk Pod with Becky Quick and Andrew Ross-Sorkin. Up on Becky. President Trump signing an executive order Thursday that will allow tariffs on auto and other imports from Japan to be coming in at much lower rates, 15 percent versus the 25 to 27 and a half percent. Joining us right now to talk about this is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. And Secretary Lutnick, thank you for being with us today. Let's walk through how this kind of played out and what the specific details are in this agreement. All right. So the Japanese, in order to buy down their tariff rate. So they had a 25 % rate.
30:02And to buy down that rate, they have given President Trump$550 billion for President Trump to direct where and how he wants it invested in America. And if you think about that, that's a half a percent of GDP growth per year for the rest of his term given to Donald Trump by the Japanese in order to build in America for our national and economic security. It is just the most fun working for Donald Trump. I mean, this deal is off the rails. Hey, Howard, let's focus just on that piece of it, because you guys have been pretty clear about how you see this$550 billion. The latest I've read on this is that the Japanese are describing it slightly differently.
30:46They're calling this a combination of investments, loans, and loan guarantees. They're characterizing it as a way to back up Japanese firms' U.S. projects. Where's the funding come from? And in terms of the leeway that the president has in determining where those investments go. So the president has complete discretion on where these investments go. The Japanese, it's classic. They are going to meet capital calls in America. They are going to give America money when we ask for it to build the projects. How do they plan to fund it? You know, that's their business, of course. That's up to them on how they plan to get the$550 billion.
31:28But what we will see is just that the president says, look, I want to build, as an example, the Alaska pipeline. I am going to finally utilize all those assets that we have in Alaska. We're going to build a giant Alaska pipeline, make capital calls to the Japanese. We build that. I mean, think of the employment. You look at next year's employment, it is going to explode. All these factories we're building, all the plants that are coming into America. You know, you look at the unemployment rate numbers today, wait till a year from today. Wow, it will be amazing numbers. Well, let's talk about that.
32:04We do have a jobs report that's coming out in, oh, just over 30 minutes time. 830, we're going to get the jobs report. There have been some questions about some weakness kind of popping up in the labor market at this point. What do you see? Well, the fact is the Donald Trump economy is just beginning, right? I mean, he's convinced all these companies to come in using his tariff policy to just come on in and build here. Way over$10 trillion of investment. So look a year from today, the end of this year starting, and look a year from today, you're going to see employment numbers that you never imagined.
32:41because what it's going to do is it's going to take the 6.9 million Americans who are capable of working, who are sitting on the sidelines now because they just haven't had the jobs they were looking for. They're all going to come into the workplace because we're going to train them. These are tech jobs. These are building these factories and operating these factories. These are great technician jobs, fixing factories, building the HVAC systems. I mean, these jobs are coming and we're going to train over five million Americans for these jobs. And you're going to see unemployment numbers that you've never imagined.
33:19If only and what will help it is if finally Jerome Powell does his job and lowers rates. It is outrageous that he keeps these rates this high. It is absurd, actually. Well, the Fed's going to be meeting and they'll make a decision on that coming up a little later this month. In the meantime, all of this rests on the president's tariff strategy, and that has been brought into question by the courts. The president himself said this week that if the Supreme Court doesn't rule in his favor, it would be very, very bad for America. If he doesn't rule, if the Supreme Court doesn't rule that these tariffs are valid, it questions the entire strategy the administration has put out.
33:59So what plans are there to deal with it if the Supreme Court rules against you? Well, let's take a look at the decision that was seven to four against us in the district court. The lead, right, the lead judge on the bench sided with Donald Trump. The judge before who was the lead judge sided with Donald Trump. The new judge that's coming in to direct the bench sided with Donald Trump. And the smartest judge on the bench sided with Donald Trump. I think if you read the dissent, you will see that that is the thoughtful way of dealing with these tariff cases. And that is going to be the underpinning of the Supreme Court's decision that is going to support Donald Trump as he drives our foreign policy.
34:52You have to have the foreign policy of the United States of America in the hands of the only person that was elected by our whole nation. And that is Donald Trump. that he's done an amazing job has the ability to do some of those there are questions and and we'll see you know the supreme court could go either way howard and i guess the question is what's the backup plan just because so much is riding on this what what happens if they strike that down do you go to the senate and say give us the power to do this are there plans in place to do those things is there a plan to give back the tariff money to the companies that have been paying it to this point how does it work all right the president has all sorts of other authorities right so the 232 so everything we just did with japan that holds right that's durable that stays uh europe that stays these are autos pharmaceuticals semiconductors those all stay so these are durable models these big deals are going to stay we have lots of other authorities that the president can use they're called 301 and 338 i mean he's got tons of authorities this was fast and easy and incredibly smart.
36:03And that's why he did it. And look what we've achieved. You have over$500 billion a year coming in, asymmetric. Nobody is retaliating. Even the Canadians, the ridiculous Canadians who were retaliating, finally took down the last retaliatory tariffs. Nobody retaliating, asymmetric. You have Europe paying us 15 % while our exporters can pay zero. You have the smartest trade policy. Now that icing on the cake was the Japanese deal, their tariffs go down to 15%, and they give Donald Trump$550 billion to go build what he wants. He wants to bring semiconductors home. You're going to see semiconductors home.
36:49How about generic pharmaceuticals? The Chinese make antibiotics. Why are we dependent on the Chinese to make antibiotics? Now the Japanese funding is going to build generic antibiotics in America so we can take care of ourselves. This is the smartest deal that anybody's ever done. And the only way we get this kind of deal done is because Donald Trump's in the Oval Office. Hey, Mr. Secretary, we're going to hear these jobs numbers. And just to go back to that for a moment, in about a half an hour, I'm curious how you think we should think about the credibility of these numbers, given that the president removed the former head of the BLS.
37:27There's a new person in that role. Has there been a change, a meaningful change to the methodology with which we should see in these numbers? And should we think they're more credible than they were a month ago? Well, I think you take the noise out, meaning if the leader is bent in against Donald Trump, then they're going to have, you know, such errors and those things are bent. We've seen that in all sorts of agencies throughout this government. The people, the holdovers from the Biden administration, they're just bent against the president's success. They're rooting against America and against Donald Trump.
38:04And that's got to end. So he can't replace somebody, you know, two weeks ago, and you expect fundamental change. But what you will get is an agency that's on side, just trying to do the best and put out the correct numbers. And that's what Donald Trump has to do. And that's what this whole cabinet has to do. They have to get rid of people who are against the president, against the elected leader of the United States of America, and get people on side who just want America to win. Donald Trump wants America to win. And anybody who's against him is really against America being the greatest it can be.
38:41I understand that, Mr. Secretary. I would imagine for the purposes of numbers, though, that come out of a group like BLS, what the American public, what the world public, the CEOs in America, the Fed, anybody who's making decisions on these numbers. Actually, they don't want someone who's there to win. They just want somebody who's there going to give them the most accurate, timely numbers that possibly exist. Just accuracy is probably the only thing that they want. So what I'm asking is today when we see those numbers, whether we should believe they're accurate. I think they'll get better because you'll take out the people who are just trying to create noise against the president.
39:17Take out the people trying to create noise. Let's get the accurate numbers because this is going to be the greatest growth economy. Right. Six months from now, a year from today, as these trillions of dollars of plants and factories, you've seen all these pictures. They are just so many factories going in. The employment situation in America is going to be so impressive. Look, we've got 3 % GDP growth. Nothing wrong with the growth we're going to have the rest of this year. But the Donald Trump economy, the explosive power of his tariff policy, his plants being built in America, to come home and build advanced manufacturing in America, when that comes starting six months from today to a year from today, you're just going to be impressed.
40:02I'm going to come on your show, and I'm going to make you say Donald Trump was right, and we are all impressed. Right. Mr. Secretary, two other quick questions. Ro Khanna, he was very critical of the president and particularly interestingly critical of the CEOs who were at dinner with the president last night, arguing that effectively as they went around the table praising the president that this was performative. What's your reaction to that? You know, when you go around the table and you see these CEOs and they articulate that they are committing$600 billion more of investment in America, and you say that's performative, you are telling a joke.
40:43They are articulating to the president that they would not have been building these kind of factories, these kind of plant, this kind of massive investment that we together. I'm 64. I've never heard this kind of investment ever. You see it one by one by one. Imagine three people spoke and he equaled one point five trillion in investment at one dinner. I mean, I think that is performing for the U.S. economy and for the benefit of America. And can you speak to this? One of the people who was not at that table was a former colleague of yours, Elon Musk. Was he invited to this dinner? I don't know.
41:22You know, I don't really go over the guest list of these kind of things. But, you know, Elon's company is doing well. Did you see his compensation package this morning? A trillion dollars over 10 years if he reaches the milestones. What do you think? Right. If he grows the company 10 times, they can give him a trillion dollars. You know, if you make your shareholders, you know,$20 trillion, it's not that bad. But I mean, it's kind of fun to say I'm going to make my investors$20 trillion. It's pretty impressive, actually. It's kind of funny to think about. Secretary Lutnik, thank you for joining us this morning.
41:57We appreciate your time. Thanks. Great to see you. You too. Less than an hour after that interview, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August jobs report. Turns out hiring stalled last month with just 22 ,000 new jobs added, well below expectations. Unemployment ticked up to 4.3 percent and revisions to June's numbers showed the job market's first job shedding jobs since 2020. This all sets the stage for a likely interest rate cut at the Fed's next meeting later this month. We broke down the report with CNBC's Steve Leisman. Steve, what are you drawn to here? What's the big idea? What's the big story that comes out of it.
42:37Well, I am looking at that 50, not much trade at the moment on the 50 basis point trade, 0.4 % probability. It's 100%. What has happened, however, is a big change to thinking about October. October is now 80%. And if you'll give me a second, I'll tell you what it was just before the number. It was 61%. So a 20 percentage point increase in the trade for an October quarter point rate cut. Right, meaning this is not one and done. Right, but then I want to see whether or not they're now begging in yes. Okay, so here's where we're at now. We're now thinking about three cuts this year, 75 basis points, worse of cuts before.
43:16We were talking about 50, so we've added a quarter point. Now - Do they have four meetings left, September? There's only three left. There's only three left. So every meeting now is now believed to be the case. That is the trade. We'll see a lot, as Rick has always pointed out, a lot of noise right after the number comes up. We'll see how it settles down. September, October, December. Are those the three meetings? September, October, December. Yes, correct. OK, so private 38. OK, you know, because here's what's happening. A steady drumbeat of job losses at the federal government level. You can say this is extreme or you can say the data kind of supports this.
43:54We're getting back to a place we were before the pandemic. Right. There was a pretty good surge under the Biden administration. So we're bringing that back down, at least the federal government level. It's, I have that number now, I just calculated it, 90 ,000, 88 ,000 jobs lost in the federal government ex-postal service since the beginning of the year, 88 ,000. Okay. What other numbers are interesting to me? Manufacturing minus 12. And there's been a steady drumbeat of losses in the manufacturing sector. I think one of the warning signs here is these tariffs, which are sort of designed to help manufacturing could be hurting manufacturing because of a rise in input price in the manufacturing sector as well as a potential slot on the economy good sector overall minus 25 private education healthcare 46 and and then one other number here goods overall I wanted to just check one other thing which was the professional business services minus 17 a lot of minus signs here is all I can tell you I did want to check health and hospitality the leisure and hospitality, up 28.
44:56So that's okay. The big story, I think, is this debate. You're now down to, and I'll give you this number here, a three-month moving average of something like 22 ,000, 23 ,000 average payroll growth over the last three months. Over that time period, you've ticked up the unemployment rate by two-tenths. That 20x thousand, or let's call it 38 ,000 right now, could be close to the right run rate to put, if you include the decline of immigration, an increase in deportations, to maintain a steady unemployment rate, the steady unemployment rate. Maybe it's 50, maybe it's 60, but it's not far off where we are right now.
45:34If this is the policy you want, then that's the policy you get. The big caveat to everything I've said here, August is a terribly noisy number. We keep revising it. I don't know exactly why. It may be because it's a shoulder month on the education side. Got to get to the panel, but it's just a number that is often revised higher. And it's often a number that the street misses. I'll leave it there. That's the pod for today and for the week. Happy Friday. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 a.m. Eastern. And to get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears, follow Squawk Pod wherever you get your podcasts.
46:18Have a lovely weekend and we'll meet you back here on Monday. We are clear. Thanks, guys.
From the publisher
Tesla is asking investors to approve another outsized pay plan for CEO Elon Musk of nearly $1 trillion. Tesla Chairwoman Robyn Denholm says the plan was designed to keep Musk “motivated and focused on delivering for the company.” Then, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick discusses the U.S. decision to lower tariffs on Japan, President Trump’s broader tariff agenda and the state of the economy where August’s payroll numbers came in significantly below expectations. Plus, CNBC’s Eamon Javers breaks down a ProPublica investigation into mortgages held by Trump cabinet members, and CNBC’s Angelica Peebles highlights the key takeaways from HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 's Senate hearing.
Javers 3;42
Peebles 10:44
Denholm 20:27
Lutnick 33:35
In this episode:
Howard Lutnick, @howardlutnick
Angelica Peebles, @angelicapeebles
Eamon Javers, @eamonjavers
Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick
Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin
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