European Leaders in DC & an Industrial Policy Debate 8/18/25

0:00Bring in show music, please. This is Squawk Pod and I'm CNBC producer Cameron Costa. On today's episode, European leaders gather for a rare White House summit following President Trump's meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin. Teams from Ukraine, France, Germany and others touchdown in Washington, where Eamon Javers is standing by. The question for all these leaders today, guys, is if they can craft in NATO-like security guarantees for Ukraine that are enough like NATO to reassure the Ukrainians that they're real and yet not so much like NATO that they're a non-starter for the Russian side. What's at stake and what concessions each party is preparing for?

0:46U.S. ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker joins us. We have to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good and at some point in time see if a deal can be had. And the Trump administration weighing taking a stake in intel, a debate from both sides on how it will impact industrial policy. And their positions might surprise you. This is totally flipped. This is like a flipped situation. Those stories, plus the Winklevoss twins of the social network and then crypto fame, are ready for their big IPO. I mean, they get screwed out of Facebook. The next thing will come along. And they're still 6 '5". It's Monday, August 18th, 2025, and Squawk Pod begins right now.

1:33Stand Becky by in three, two, one, cue it, please. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. And this morning, there is a modest pullback. How's that alarm clock? Rough reentry. Don't you know it? It is. It's like coming back into the atmosphere. Whoa. Friction. Comes early. Comes early. But we're here and we're happy to be here. And it's good to have you there. It's good to be here. Because it's hard. It's hard work. That's why they call it work. Divided by two instead of divided by three.

2:10I looked at some of the people I probably would be interviewing today. I'm like, go for it. It is funny. It is funny. It makes us all appreciate it. Is it 50 %? It's 50 % more when it's only two. Yeah. But it's good to be here with the whole crew. We've got a lot to go on right now. Let's take you through the squat planner. The Fed is in focus this week. Central Banker is gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for their annual policy meeting. Steve Leesman will be there. We're going to get a lot from him. But in the meantime, Friday, though, the main event, Fed Chair Jay Powell, scheduled to speak and try to lay out the Fed's new policy framework.

2:48Work investors will be listening very, very closely for any clues as to whether the Fed is going to cut rates next month. Also, key week for earnings. We're going to get a lot of news from retailers. We're going to hear from Home Depot results. We get that tomorrow, followed by Target and Lowe's on Wednesday, Walmart on Thursday. It's a lighter week, though, for economic data. Tomorrow, we're going to get July housing starts data. Thursday, bringing us weekly jobless claims and new manufacturing numbers from the Philadelphia Fed. Let's get to Eamon, because Ukraine's president and a group of European leaders are planning to meet President Trump at the White House today, following that meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

3:29And Eamon Jevers, as I mentioned, is with us. Hey, Eamon. Yeah, good morning to you, Joe. As you say, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is expected at the White House later today to help chart a path forward in the wake of those failed talks between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. Also present will be leaders of five European countries who are part of the so-called coalition of the willing that's backing Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Sources told NBC News over the weekend that President Trump engaged with President Zelensky and European leaders by phone early Saturday morning about the U.S.

4:04being a party to a potential NATO-like security guarantee for Ukraine as part of a deal struck with Russia. Now, such security guarantees have been a key demand of the Ukrainians as part of any deal to end the fighting. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained the latest thinking on Meet the Press yesterday. One of their fundamental demands is that if this war were to end, they have to make sure this never happens again. They don't want to get reinvaded. They don't want to wait three or four years from now and find another war on their hands. So there's going to have to be some security guarantees as part of it.

4:36how that's structured, how that's built, what our role will be. That'll be the kinds of things we'll have to work through. And take a look at the list of European attendees at the White House today. Alexander Stubb, president of Finland. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor of Germany. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission. Mark Root, NATO secretary general. And Keir Starmer, prime minister of the UK. Georgina Maloney, the Prime Minister of Italy, Emmanuel Macron of France, a long list of European leaders at the White House today. And the question for all these leaders today, guys, is if they can craft NATO-like security guarantees for Ukraine that are enough like NATO to reassure the Ukrainians that they're real and yet not so much like NATO that they're a non-starter for the Russian side.

5:22It's going to be a challenge. Back over to you. Yes, certainly is. And we just got to wait, obviously to know how it's received. I think there's, I don't know, where do you think the Europeans come down? They've obviously, they're a lot closer to Russia and have a lot more, I guess, that they're concerned about. Do you think they'll be less hesitant to tell Zelensky to maybe consider, you know permanently giving up some territory i don't know what what to think of of what they're going to be telling zelinski versus what president trump is going to be trying to orchestrate i mean i think in broad strokes you could say that the europeans generally macron in particular are a little bit more pro-kive and wary of trump's diplomacy with vladimir putin they don't they don't want the U.S.

6:21to get drawn into a situation where we're pushing the Ukrainian side to concede too much. I think the Europeans do want an end to the war, but also want an end on Ukrainian terms. And I think they're wary of another blow up in the Oval Office the way we saw earlier this year with Zelensky and President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. This will be the first time he's been in the Oval Office since that dramatic confrontation. The tone, I think, will be much different today, but we'll see. I mean, President Trump was very respectful coming out of his meeting with Putin, saying, you know, one of the first people I want to talk to is Zelensky.

6:56So, and you've seen the Zelensky tweets over the weekend, he's been very respectful of Trump, saying, you know, he's grateful for Trump, grateful for the American people, you know, trying to be very ginger about this relationship, which really fractured earlier this year, and it's so important for both countries. Amen, I think the big question, though, is what does Putin give up in this? We've seen the concessions that we've asked for and what President Trump offered just in terms of this, these assurances, these security assurances are certainly different than he'd been offering in the past. But what about Putin?

7:28What does he give up? Because he's asking for the entire Donbass region, which the Russians have been trying to take control of militarily since 2014 and have not been successful. Yeah, and he might want more than that even. You know, and you heard Marco Rubio say it in that clip, right? I mean, the idea is if you're Ukraine, any kind of ceasefire can be potentially dangerous in the sense that it could just give the Russians time to rearm, replenish their supplies, their personnel, and mount another offensive in a year or two. And that's not where they want to be. They want to end this thing. And so that's why they want these security guarantees.

8:04The question is, you know, what are the security guarantees exactly? Does that mean NATO forces could be drawn into a war with Russia in a year's time? That's not something I think anyone in NATO wants. It's not something the U.S. certainly wants. And it's potentially very dangerous in terms of global confrontation. So how do you construct security guarantees that don't draw NATO into armed conflict, but are strong enough to deter the Russians, and at the same time, don't give the Russians their biggest fear, which is NATO on their doorstep in Ukraine? That's the biggest thing or one of the biggest things that the Russians have objected to all along is the encroachment of NATO closer and closer to their frontier.

8:45They want to push back and have a buffer zone in Ukraine that's not NATO territory. So that's all just very tricky to work through. That's part of why this war has been so contentious. And that's what the leaders are going to have to contend with today in a drama filled moment just after the Putin meeting on the heels of that Zelensky breakup at the White House. President Trump orchestrating it all today. It's going to be something to see. And we've heard so many times that, you know, Putin considers troops like pawns and doesn't. I mean, civilians, too. I mean, it's been a horrific thing to watch over the past couple of years.

9:24Does anything matter to him? And people say the economy. I guess at some point does matter and that that's the only thing he understands. And but is that true? I mean, when we talk about China, a lot of times we we said, well, they don't even care if the people if the people continue to suffer and, you know, not having everything, you know, not not coming up to the living standards of the rest of the world. You wonder whether the CCP worries or really cares about that. And I wonder, does he under is that something that speaks to Putin? Yeah, I mean, if you look at Russian history, obviously they have an enormous history of economic deprivation and the ability to tolerate that for decades on end.

10:10But there is a limit to Russia's economic ability to carry on this war. And the question is, it may be unknowable. I'm sure U.S. intelligence has an estimate. You know, how much longer can Russia really finance this operation, given that the sanctions, you know, they've been very clever in getting around them and continuing economic activity. But at some point, they won't be able to have the sort of economic throw weight to continue to carry this on. And where is that point? And what can the U.S. do to hasten that? You look at the war in Afghanistan for the Russians in the 80s, that had a devastating economic effect on the Soviet Union at that time.

10:51A generation of soldiers lost and an economic breaking point for the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. The losses here have been more severe, dramatically more severe than they have been there. And the expense here is much more. So, you know, at some point you're looking at an economic breaking point, where that is and what the Russian public is willing to tolerate, what Putin himself is willing to tolerate. All of that's kind of unknowable. Lavrov with the CCCP shirt on. Confusing, isn't it? That was subtle. And then there's the CCCP. So the communists, that's the Cyrillic abbreviation for USSR, I guess, CCCP.

11:30Yeah, there is not the CCCP, but some people want to bring it back. Yeah, exactly. And then you've got the other CCCP, which is also a thorn in our side sometimes. All right, Eamon Jevers, thank you. Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini's space station filing for its IPO and joining a wave of digital asset firms seeking to tap into the public markets. The company founded back in 2014 by billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss It plans to list on the NASDAQ right here under the ticker symbol GEMI. Terms of that offering were not disclosed in a filing that was made public on Friday. The company supports more than 70 cryptocurrencies and operations in more than 60 countries.

12:13It also supports stablecoins and issues the Gemini dollar stablecoin. Now, in the six months ended June 30th, Gemini reported a net loss of about$280 million on total revenue of about$69 million. That compares with a net loss of$41 million on revenue of$74 million a year ago. Are you jealous? Yeah. Jealous. I mean, they get screwed out of Facebook, and it's like it doesn't even... The next thing will come along. And they're still 6 '5", and they look like that, and now they're both billionaires. They were billionaires long before this. Yes. I know. Well, that's even... You think that helps? You think that makes me feel better?

12:54Ah, envy, envy, envy. Seven deadly sins. It's a green-headed monster. It is. Cheese will be next. Still to come on Squawk Pod, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker on the Alaska meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin. What's very clear that came out of Friday is that there is something here to work with. Ukraine's going to have to agree to any deal. It's not going to be a great deal for either side.

13:29Welcome back to Squawk Pod with Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross-Organ. Up in Andrew, Q. European leaders, including Ukraine's President Zelensky, headed to the White House today. This follows Friday's Alaska summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin. Joining us right now is Matt Whitaker. He's U.S. ambassador to NATO. Good morning to you. Let's start with just the basics. How do you think Friday's meeting went, and what do you think it portends for today? Well, good to be with you. I think there's a couple things we need to consider. One is that this is a process. Obviously, everyone wants the fighting to end.

14:06President Trump is committed to saving the tens of thousands of people that are dying every single week on the battlefield. But at the same time, it's going to take both sides to come together and to have an agreement. And President Trump is seeing if there is an ability to negotiate, mediate, quite frankly, a resolution to the war. And I think Secretary Rubio said it best yesterday. He said that there was progress made, that they felt there was enough progress to take it to the next step, which is this meeting today. And we'll see how the European leaders, together with President Zelensky, respond to what was proposed by President Putin.

14:46Mr. President, the thing that I think that some people can't figure out is, you know, the meeting was cut short or at least shorter than people had anticipated. And some people, you could take it two ways. You either everything worked out perfectly, you know, super quickly. And so they ended the meeting quickly and said, let's stop wasting time. We're just going to go to it. Or it didn't work out the way it was supposed to. Which was it? Yeah, well, I mean, obviously we wouldn't be taking this next step if it didn't go as as hoped. I mean, obviously, I think all indications that progress was made, that there is a proposal that has come from Russia that was briefed on the plane ride back by President Trump to both President Zelensky and the European leaders.

15:31And now they're convening today to meet about it and to talk about it and to find out if there's a counterproposal, if there is something to work with here. I mean, again, it's a process. And I think President Trump has been pretty clear that But he is trying to create the conditions to bring not only Russia to the table, and I think he's the only one that could bring Russia to the table, but also see if there's a deal to be made. And that's what I think is the next step. Look, the critique is no ceasefire, that that was supposed to be a precondition going into the meeting that didn't happen. It sounds to me like ultimately Ukraine is going to give up Crimea Crimea and Putin is going to get what he wants in terms of in terms of Ukraine not becoming part of NATO.

16:16Then you said to yourself, why is he not going to be? Why does Putin not want him to become part of NATO? Because maybe he wants to keep going later. What do you think of that? Well, as you know, NATO is the strongest military alliance ever on the planet. So, I mean, obviously that is a strong incentive. And Ukraine does want to be in NATO. All 32 members would have to agree to that ascension if that were to happen. But, you know, what's very clear that came out of Friday is that there is something here to work with. Ukraine's going to have to agree to any deal. It's not going to be a great deal for either side.

16:50Russia is not going to get everything they want. Ukraine's not going to get everything they want. But at the same time, we're going to end the tens of thousands of soldiers and, quite frankly, civilians that are dying every week in Ukraine. I mean, it is just catastrophic, the humanity. And so I think, you know, we have to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. And at some point in time, see if a deal can be had. And I think that's what President Trump has done. I mean, he is a peacemaker. He's made six peace deals, you know, most recently between Thailand and Cambodia. And so plus Armenia and Azerbaijan, there's a series of peace deals that he concluded brought to the finish line.

17:30And I think that gives him the space here to see if a deal could be made in this conflict. Do you think Ukraine should become part of NATO? Well, again, I think it takes all 32 members. We haven't taken the sense of the 32 members as to whether Ukraine should be part of NATO. Obviously, there is a process. They're not part of the EU either. And that process, they would have to meet certain things, including corruption has to be rooted out and other political issues have to be considered. But, you know, that obviously is a question for another day. And ultimately, you know, I'm President Trump's representative at NATO.

18:08And so the decision of whether or not the United States supports that is up to President Trump. Clearly, Europe has been much more supportive of Ukraine and Zelensky in many ways, or in some ways, I don't want to say more supportive, because you could argue we've been more supportive in terms of just total dollars. But there is a sense, if you read some of the newspapers in Europe, for example, about their frustration with the United States in these circumstances and think that we are leaving Zelensky out there and putting him in a corner. Do you agree with that? That is not the current situation on the ground.

18:46I obviously live and work in Europe currently, even though I'm in Washington, D.C. for these meetings today. I really think that the Europeans know that the United States has to be at the table. They have begged us not to walk away. That is their biggest concern is that President Trump walks away from this peace process. And the United States is the only country, including, you know, President Trump's the only person that can bring Vladimir Putin to the table, that has the cards to play, to continue to exert leverage. You know, obviously the sanctions and tariffs on India were significant. and were felt.

19:24And, you know, those types of things can continue to be rolled out if there is an unwillingness to continue down the path to peace. But I just think the Europeans know that the United States is their best ally, their best friend. You know, we have great relationships within NATO and within Europe. And so they know the United States needs to be at the table and they want us there. Mr. Ambassador, some of the individuals that I don't know what you'd characterize them as maybe almost Putin enablers or a certain fringe element of, I guess it's even the Republican Party, that said that the reason Putin can say he was justified in the initial move on Ukraine was because he was concerned that NATO would be right on his doorstep and that that should have never been even broached.

20:14And so if there is a security guarantee, it's not NATO, but it's like NATO light or something. How do you thread that needle to where it's not NATO, you know, which Putin definitely doesn't want, but it still essentially does the same thing as the United States guaranteeing the Ukrainian security? I don't know how you do. You call it something different, but it's the same thing? Well, ultimately, it's an alliance. It's a coalition is what NATO is. And anything that would be a security guarantee for Ukraine would be some form of a coalition or an alliance for that purpose. And then you would draft up some sort of a governing document.

20:56I think we're a long way from hanging some flesh on that. There's been a coalition of the willing that has been meeting led by the UK and Germany. And I've sat in some of those meetings because many of them have been at NATO headquarters in Brussels. And certainly there is a desire to make sure that when this war ends, when there is a peace, that it's a lasting peace, an enduring peace. And the only way they can do that is to make sure that Russia doesn't continue to press on the offensive ever again. And the only way you do that is make sure that Ukraine is very strong. Obviously, they've done an admirable, brave job defending themselves and fighting, but at the same time, they're facing just a war machine in Russia and a bigger economy, a bigger population, and the economics and the numbers are just difficult long term, if you really play it out over a decade, which nobody wants this to continue.

21:53And so, you know, security guarantees, participation of Europe, a bearing of the burden of Europe, which is what we started when we got together in The Hague a couple months ago, and Europe and Canada committed to 5 percent GDP for their collective defense and their individual defense. And I think that set the framework and the path to what could happen in Ukraine with Ukraine's participation. But I think right now it's very clear that any security guarantee would be outside of the NATO security framework. Ambassador, you're completely right. I think those are all the relevant questions and points.

22:29But the big issue is how do we trust Putin, who has made these promises in the past. He was the aggressor in this position. He signed all of these truces, including the Ukraine Sovereignty Truce back in 1994 and the one for Crimea in 2014. Same person. He goes back on his word time and time again, and I think that's why we probably need something with a lot of teeth to protect whatever is agreed to. I think there's no doubt about that. Obviously, President Reagan said it best. We trust but verify. And in this case, it's going to have to make sure that Ukraine is strong enough together with this coalition of the willing and an Article 5-like commitment from Europe to be there on the ground and to protect Europe together with the Ukrainians.

23:15And that's, I think, what's going to be formed up here. Ambassador, I want to thank you for joining us. We wish you all a lot of luck today and look forward to seeing the progress that comes out of today's meeting. Thank you. All right. See you again soon. Coming up on Squawk Pod, what a government stake in intel would mean for the global economy. A debate with former Trump policy advisor Stephen Moore. With respect to making America number one in artificial intelligence, I want the government to stay as far away as possible, just like they did in the internet age. And former Biden treasury official Natasha Saron.

23:51The idea of industrial policy in targeted areas where we're concerned about national security actually seems like quite good policy to me.

24:21Later this week, Fed Chair Jay Powell is scheduled to speak and lay out the Fed's new policy framework on Friday. And we're going to keep our eyes on all of that. This will be, and I was thinking, the September decision could be his last major decision before the president nominates or names whoever the successor would be. And therefore, before we effectively have a shadow Fed chair, we talk about the potential of a shadow Fed chair. But if he lowers rates, does that change the kind of person that he would want? If he doesn't do anything, does that mean he needs an even harder charging kind of person to go lower the rates for him?

25:06So does what Jay Powell says later this week not just affect the markets, but does it affect the kind of person that Trump may be more inclined or not to name? That's an interesting question. There's a huge piece in Barron's where they wrote up how important this speech is, maybe the most important of Powell's career, because he's got a Fed that's under siege, pressure from the president, which way he's going to go on this. The numbers have changed significantly since the last time we heard from him. not an easy line to walk. The numbers for that month changed and the two previous months changed.

25:42Totally changed the whole idea of whether the labor market was healthier or not. As we saw in that chart earlier in the show, I didn't realize it had gone to... Well, there's the labor market piece and then there's the inflation piece. Right, right. So it depends where you're focused. You have to focus on labor. I think he's probably focused on a combination of both. And some people say the markets come to him and some people think the market's moved away from him. I think he's looking too late. I know that's your perspective. Because, you know, PPI is so volatile. And I don't know. And the markets usually are right.

26:14But, you know, we're moving into August and September. I'm ready for the... It always happens. It's storm season. Yeah.