“It’s Over.” The President with NATO & the Legacy of Elie Wiesel 7/8/26

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0:47Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash marketupdatepodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. Sing in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. As far as I'm concerned, it's over. President Trump's market-moving comments from the NATO summit. Our own Steve Sedgwick is on the ground in Turkey talking to attendees. Blindsided on this issue. Absolutely all the leaders here. The president says the memorandum of understanding with Iran is over. But former ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns interprets the remarks as a push to inflict damage on Iran's economy.

1:31That's the pressure point. An evolving picture in the Middle East. I think the option of the administration going back to a full-throated air war against Iran probably isn't there. It didn't work the first time, so there are limited options here. And the late Nobel Peace Prize winner Elie Wiesel died 10 years ago. Today, his son, Elie Wiesel, is carrying on his father's legacy. what we are still learning from the Holocaust. There's so much ignorance in the world, and my father spoke about fighting indifference, but he didn't get to see just how much ignorance we're wallowing in now. And now it's time for us to fight ignorance.

2:07Plus, a familiar voice on really, really big news. CO2 Management is going to be injecting about$4 billion, really the first outside money ever beyond Jeff Bezos' money, into Blue Origin. It's Wednesday, July 8th, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand by, Joe. In three, two, one, this mic is here. Good morning and welcome to Squawk Box here on CNBC, live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Joe Kern, along with Kelly Evans, who, just to warn you, she's, you know, she made it one day. This is her second day, but not as smooth. Not as smooth as the first day, right? You go for the nap, that doesn't work, then can't sleep at night.

2:58You know, because there's this fine 1 p.m. program. I am doing very well, by the way. And I, so, you know, I thought, well, I'll tough it out. And no, no, no, bad idea. You want me to do the, you know, how would that change that I do the heavy lifting. Oh, please. Oh, step aside. If you need, you know, at any time to go take a nap or something, actually if I talk long enough, you might. U.S. equity futures at this hour. We were paying 100 % of NATO, and yet a lot of the countries weren't paying anything. So, Mark, would you say a few words? Absolutely. I thank you so much, Mr. President. Dear Donald, what you did, degrading the nuclear capability crucial for israel the region for europe degrading the ballistic missile capability of iran crucial for israel for the region for you for the whole world you know it's it's interesting i'm very unhappy with nato and yet this man is a great leader and he gets it

4:00president trump says in his view the memorandum of understanding meant to pause the war between the U.S. and Iran is over. But there is some nuance here. Steve Sedgwick is at the NATO summit in Turkey and joins us now with more. Steve, it's great to see you again, albeit in these circumstances. I caught a little bit of what your report was last hour. But wow, have we had some fireworks already from this NATO summit? Yeah, it is quite extraordinary. Look, the European leaders were ready for something. They just didn't expect this. There is no doubt about it. Kelly, Joe, I've had the privilege of speaking to 13 NATO leaders, 13 NATO leaders before the president spoke today as well.

4:40And not one of them thought that this was on the agenda. Yes, they thought that Spain was going to get it because of their support for the United States during the war and their lack of ability to get to 5 % as well. Yes, we thought Greenland might be somewhere. We had a hint of that yesterday. And I can talk about that a little bit later on if you want. Defence spending, they were ready for that. They were ready and have been having huge amounts of spending commitments cited in the last 24 hours in order to head the president off on that. And Iran, they were ready for criticism over Iran, but only over what NATO had and hadn't done to support the president.

5:12But they were not ready for what the president had to say. Let's listen to what he had to say about this MOU. Then I'll explain a bit more detail. I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum. You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by sick people. And they're vicious, violent people. and if they had a nuclear weapon, they'd use it. As far as I'm concerned, it's over. Let's go through some of the details. The MOU is a Memorandum of Understanding. It's called the Islamabad MOU, but it's actually signed, perhaps portentously, in Versailles with President Macron next to the president on the 17th of June.

5:51It was many, many things, including one, to provide an end to military strikes, two, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, three, end the blockade, and four, have a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, also to potentially take those sanctions off Iranian products, which we know now are going back on. That came in on the 21st of June as well. But pretty much this statement from the president, and look, Joe knows better the president than any of us there as well. He does shoot off the hip as well. But the question is, is this now policy that the memorandum of understanding is negated as well? And how have European powers been reacting to it as well?

6:24Well, I can tell you that a lot of them were actually thinking, look, we can help out. We can redeem the situation regarding Iran by offering to help demine, to have surveillance, to have radar, to have our big capability in the region. For instance, the French have got the Chalde Goul, which is a great big aircraft carrier not too far off this region as well, willing to help police the reopening of this vital seaway, which just to remind our viewers, I'm sure they all know by now, but up to 20 million barrels a day of oil, around about 20 percent of global supply went through this area before the war.

6:56And of course, it's just slowed to a trickle during the war and since then has picked up a little bit as well. But blindsided on this issue. Absolutely. All the leaders here, they thought they were going to get a lot of criticism on other fronts. And they got that as well. We can talk about that later if you want as well. But on this one, I think they're all running around now working out what to do next. Steve, I still don't see this as a full-fledged return to the kind of hostilities that we saw at the beginning of this conflict. Maybe it will. I don't know. But it almost seems like there's room being left on both sides to maybe return to the table.

7:35I don't know. And I don't know if that's the right move for the United States. Some people think that, all right, we've seen enough. Let's let's go full full bore. We went from I think we referred to some of the stuff as love taps after, you know, we had to do a sort of a tit for tat a couple of times. Iran as well. But it just doesn't seem like it's it's, you know, full bore. Maybe that's coming. Any idea about that? Yeah. Yeah. And look, the president did say that the negotiators are welcome to carry on. And these are really high power players, by the way, negotiators. We're talking about the Pakistanis.

8:13We're talking about Saudi, Qatar, Turkey, the host here and Egypt. And one thing that's really interesting, and I actually spoke to the Greek prime minister about this because of the friction between Turkey and Greece historically that I know our viewers know about this one as well, is that Turkey and President Erdogan are very high in the estimation of the president as well, which is really rare, isn't it? because he has quite a bit of, dare I say, disdain for a lot of European leaders and the support he's been getting. So actually Erdogan being one of the negotiating parties, the Turks being a negotiating party, and this event being here in Ankara, that may have some significance as well.

8:47But as you quite rightly said, the president has said, look, the negotiators are very, very welcome to carry on. One thing I want to remind viewers as well is it's only in the last seven days that the former Ayatollah has been buried and there was this enormous outpouring of grief on the streets of Tehran. which, again, got a lot of international airwaves as well. So it was almost inevitable that some form of emotional outpouring from Tehran, from the government there, would spill over into something else as well. It's almost as if they felt they needed to make a statement of intent after all that public grieving as well.

9:19In the meantime, some of their negotiators have been getting criticism from Tehran as well about acquiescing too much in any future deal with the US as well. So it was always going to be a volatile week from the Tehran point of view, Perhaps that's why they've been quite proactive on the military front. Of course, the U.S., as you say, had its action back again. But I agree with you. I don't think we're there yet in terms of a full fledged return to the conflict. One other other aspect, which will be interesting, is what are the Israelis doing as well? And at the moment, nothing. In the financial, the carrot part of having those oil revenue, which I thought, you know, there was a feeling that, wow, they'd see that and say, hey, this is pretty good.

10:00But maybe we could actually improve our economy and help the people of Iran out a little bit. But see, I don't know. I don't know if that I don't know if that is a is high on the list of things that this regime really cares about. But but immediately, you know, putting sanctions back on, I don't know how how easy it is to do that. These aren't half measures, but I don't think they're full measures at this point. They could they could come at any time. And then I don't know what it does to oil. I'm also kind of thinking that oil always knows and we questioned it before. Why wasn't it going higher?

10:37Why is it coming down? And it always seemed to have the right idea, right interpretation about the events. And if it does again, this doesn't look like a full return to just all out war. Yeah. Look, I'll take the first point about the financial incentives. This is a regime. Trump's right. It's a murderous regime. It's a theocratic regime that kills its own people, its own democratic protesters on the streets at the start of this war. And you'll remember those famous comments from the president as well saying, look, help is coming. It's come in a different kind of form, perhaps to help some of those looking for democracy on the ground.

11:14But this is a regime that thinks financially at least second, maybe third. But first of all, about survival, of course, one of the talked about aims of Operation Epic Fury was regime change at the time. And the president said, look, we have had a regime change, but it is still pretty much the IRGC, which is the Iranian Revolutionary National Guard, plus the Ayatollah's theocratic regime, which is still in place as well. So they haven't had regime change. What they want is survival and finances. Dare I say it comes a little bit further down the list. Now, the financial incentives, the CARA, as you were talking about, Joe, absolutely enormous as well.

11:50We're talking about the end of sanctions, the ability to export its product freely around the world and frozen assets as well. There are hundreds of billions of dollars of frozen assets held in Western bank accounts that actually they want to get their hands on, as you quite rightly say, to rebuild their economy. But when you're talking about theocrats, ayatollahs who are looking at survival, I think the financial aspect comes a little bit later. OK. Steve, I really appreciate it. Glad you could join us, our Steve Sedgwick. And we're also watching Spain's main stock index, much lower in the last few hours.

12:28At the NATO summit earlier this morning, President Trump slammed the country for not contributing enough money to the military alliance. He said he didn't want anything to do with Spain and preferred to cut off all trade with the country. I think he told Secretary Besant to make that happen. Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don't participate. They don't pay. I don't want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please, including visits. OK, we don't want anything to do. Watch them. Watch them come running back. Spanish bond yields jumping the Spanish prime minister's office, saying it has no intention of changing its excellent relationship with the U.S.

13:14Spain was the only NATO member who last year did not commit to spending 5 % of GDP on defense by 2035. I guarantee you they're... They were at, I think they went from 1.6 to 2%. But this is much broader. They've got much more important things on their mind right now. Obviously, that next game. No, they do. These two administrations, I mean, they have been, Spain has probably become one of the most vocal European countries that is not on board with anything. This is much broader than just defense, but much broader. It's been simmering for a long time. You know who they play? No, I don't. I don't know why I bother.

13:58Do you know who beat the United States? Do you know that we had our best player and still lost 4-1? So Spain's going to play Belgium? Yes. Thank you. Yes. Who are you picking? What is Calcius? I'm out of that. I've got to talk to Dom today. Because if you remember what we were talking about yesterday. They almost won. And I was thinking about that 9x. We were both right. That's what I mean. Here's how I see it. I told Dom, look, you've got a team as good as Argentina. It will show up. The cream will rise. He was arguing on any given day, anything can happen. So I'm watching with 12 minutes left.

14:35It was a great game. I finally understand a little bit about the of Messi. He's incredible. When I was watching him, it almost I was watching him a couple of times and it looks like the ball is almost attached to his feet. It just moves. It just moves. He's so talented. So I finally figure it out. Yeah, new Joe Kernan. Yeah, it is. Anyway, so 12 minutes left. Two to nothing. No, I know that this was happening. We'd hear these cheers exploding during the afternoon. And then he just said, you know what? I'm not going to lose. And he either scored the goals or resulted in or was instrumental. Every time.

15:17That's what makes people agree. And then he was so emotional. I mean, I really got. He is a great. I believe I got into it. I really loved watching it. It was supposedly the greatest game this year's World Cup anyway. it. Breaking news on Blue Origin. Andrew Ross Sorkin joins us now on the Squawk news line from a secret undisclosed location. I'm totally safe, though. Andrew. Hey, Joe. Good morning. We do have some breaking news for you. Sources telling me that Blue Origin, of course, Jeff Bezos, his space company, raising outside funds for the very first time. The company is going to be valued at$130 billion.

15:58The fundraising round is about$10 billion. Leading that round is actually somebody who was just on the show, Joe. Philippe Lafant, CO2 Management, is going to be injecting about$4 billion, really the first outside money ever beyond Jeff Bezos' money, into Blue Origin. And Jeff Bezos himself is going to be putting an additional$2 billion into the company. Apparently, there's lots of demand for that last tranche of$4 billion. And the expectation is there'll be several major investors putting money into that. Of course, all of this was to some degree telegraphed in that interview that we did right here live on Squawk Box in May.

16:46And let's show you what Jeff Bezos told us then. We finally have enough visibility into our future and our financial success that, you know, I've funded Blue out of my own by selling Amazon stock to fund Blue. But it's a good time actually to start thinking about the future and bring on some other outside investors. So we're considering that. So it's not happened yet. It has not happened yet. And of course, all of this comes just in the aftermath of the big SpaceX IPO, which values that company at something on the order of nearly now$2 trillion. Jeff Bezos has said that he believes that Blue Origin one day could be bigger than Amazon.

17:35Of course, his original creation, that company today stands at about$2.65 trillion in value. So there's still a lot of work to be done to get from$130 billion to where SpaceX is and then, of course, to where Amazon ultimately is. By the way, a lot of this is being driven by an increased demand for launches coming from Blue Origin. Of course, NASA has that agreement with the company. You know, investors, interestingly, looking past what was a pretty significant setback back in May when there was that blow up on the launch pad that not only blew up the vehicle itself, but also blew up the launch pad, which is my understanding is under a huge effort to get that back up and running as well.

18:32But there's also a huge demand for their satellite business, TerraWave, which is really their answer, if you will, to what SpaceX is doing with Starlink. They're doing a sort of satellite version of fiber, if you will. And so we're going to be keeping our eyes on all of these things. I just feel like, you know, I'm reading like my science fiction books of my childhood are all coming true. It's so exciting, Andrew, at this point that, you know, some of the most exciting companies we're talking about are based on things happening in space. And, you know, and what you said, I mean, Philippe, we know when he's on, you can just we had a big picture discussion with Philippe Lafon about the future.

19:23So that's a lot of money, Andrew. It's almost as if CO2 is going to be the Berkshire Hathaway of not just space, but but A.I. and everything else. And it's interesting, Bezos. So that was would you say it's like handpicked that could he choose where where he decides to be funded? Andrew, does that matter? Oh, yes. I mean, look, you know, interestingly, Jeff Bezos and frankly, actually, Michael Dell were investors in CO2, in one of the CO2 funds. So it's clear that there's a relationship there that does go back. Did we lose him? Sounded like it. Oh, we did lose him. Anyway, that's very interesting.

20:10Just in time, I will add. Yes. Yes, exactly. we were going to wrap anyway. Hit that break. Excellent. Yeah, big news and good question. Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod, President George W. Bush's ambassador to NATO, Nicholas Burns. He is now at Harvard's Belfer Center and he's watching developments in Turkey, the negotiations he says could stretch on for months. The Iranians, I think, have the bit in their teeth here. They think that they're tougher and more patient than we are. And so that's another part of this negotiation to show them that we're going to be in this for the long term.

20:47We'll be right back.

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21:40Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. Thursday, July 16th, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for Game Plan. Groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment. Request your invite at cnbcevents.com slash game plan.

22:07You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC. Today with Joe Kernan and Kelly Evans. Stand by, Joe. His mic here. President Trump saying that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over. Join us now, Nicholas Burns, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, now a professor with Harvard University's Belfer Center. And it's always good to see you, Mr. Ambassador. Do you speak Trumpese, Trumpian? Because you need to sift through a lot of things. Do you have any better interpretation of what we're really saying here than the rest of us? At least give us your interpretation. You know, I think that the frustration of the president and the administration is understandable.

22:53Iranians aren't playing by anybody's rules. And I thought the administration was right to launch these very limited airstrikes against Iran's coastal defenses and drone centers. The administration also revoked Iran's waiver to sell oil in dollars. That was a big gift to Iran to get the memorandum of understanding. The Iranians clearly are feeling their oats. I think the option, Joe, of the administration going back to a full-throated air war against Iran probably isn't there. It didn't work the first time. So there are limited options here. I think the president would do well, and maybe he's doing it at the NATO summit right now in Istanbul, to try to get the Europeans and also the Gulf Arab states to speak with one voice to inflict some damage on the Iranian economy.

23:42That's the pressure point. The Iranian economy, as you know, in very bad shape. And so I think that's the angle the administration appears to be taking. And I think it's the right one with a lot of very bad options on the table. Is there a proverbial straw that would break the camel's back for the economy? Because I'm sure that the mullahs are doing just fine, you know, or the IRGC. I'm sure they're, you know, they got water and food and everything else. And do they care about anyone else? Well, that's the problem. In a normal political environment, this really, really difficult economy would be the pressure point in the government.

24:19But the IRGC, the supreme, the new supreme leader, they care about their rule and their control of the state. There's a massive economic suffering in Iran taking place, but it's not a pressure point for the government of Iran. Their objective, obviously, is to wait us out and to be more tough minded. They think they can be more tough minded than the U.S. and the Gulf Arab states. So I do think inflicting damage on what the Iranian government does care about, the ability to get oil out of their country, to sell it on the global market, to go back to the oil sales to China in particular is important to them.

24:57And it may be that we're in a cat and mouse game where we're going to have to, you know, inflict punishment and then get back to the negotiating table. This could go on for a couple of months. Right. Yeah, I was the ambassador. It's Kelly here. I was going to ask about that. The blockade and denying their revenue seems to have been extremely effective at kind of bringing us toward an end in the first place. So what do we do now that it's flared up again? I mean, should that tool be used and lift? you know, we've put the waiver back or put the sanctions back on. All of these moves are designed to get at the one area where it seems like we've had the most leverage and success, which is directly at the economy, directly prohibiting oil sales.

25:40So is that something that should be doubled down on? You know, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that was what the president and his team are now communicating to the Iranians. It was interesting what the president said. I mean, you understand the frustration. We are really getting nowhere with this group of people because they make commitments and then they withdraw. They don't meet them. And so the president did not close off the option of continuing negotiations. He'd said he'd let his team continue to negotiate if they felt it was worthwhile. while. And it may be that that's what they need to do, along with some of the Gulf states, to put additional pressure on the Iranians to warn that a blockade is at least a possibility.

26:22It would be enormously difficult to do. The administration obviously wants to get away from having such a great deal of military firepower in that part of the world, given the other problems we've got, for instance, trying to limit China's power in the Indo-Pacific. But opening the Strait of Hormuz without Iran as the toll keeper and without Iran exacting fees is a critical American objective. And I think it's the right American objective to keep in mind here. But as we say, American objective, obviously, we're in the middle of this NATO meeting where the imperative might be even more on their front than on ours.