Kevin Hassett, Sen. Rand Paul, & the Property Brothers 3/17/26

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0:58Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. There's no way that President Trump's going to back down until he sees this through to the end. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on the president's resolve in the Iran war and the outlook. The timeline that President Trump has stated over and over is that it's a four to six week war and that we're ahead of schedule. Then Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. As chair of the Homeland Security Committee, he is gearing up for the new DHS secretary confirmation hearing. And he's speaking out against the war in Iran.

1:37Often people say, oh, this war is in our national security interest. Well, that's a conclusion, not a debate. The debate is really why do you think this war is in our national security interest? And I think there's a lot of negative for the war, not a whole lot of upside for America. Plus, the Property Brothers addressed the affordable housing crisis, Jonathan Scott on the red tape, and the upside to development. If I was going to do an affordable housing project today, if I was just going to build a building that costs$20 million, just to build it as an affordable housing project using government funds, it's about 40 % more expensive.

2:12And Drew Scott on the other issue in housing, supply. It's not a rate issue. Rates are one thing. when rates come down, everybody gets excited to buy, it's a supply issue. 80 % of people have mortgages under 6%. So nobody wants to do anything with it. They're holding on to it. So all these people looking to buy just don't have inventory. It is Tuesday, March 17th, 2026. Happy St. Patrick's Day. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand back to buy in three, two, one. Cue it, please. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We are live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square.

2:52I'm Becky Quick, along with Andrew Ross Sorkin. Joe is out today. Today's top stories, a lot of them. Israel's defense ministry now saying that Iran's security chief was killed in airstrikes overnight. Reuters reporting that airstrikes also killed the commander of an Iranian paramilitary unit. Iran has not yet confirmed that report. And President Trump speaking at the White House yesterday about his administration's plans for Cuba. I do believe I'll be the honor of having the honor of taking Cuba. That'd be good. It's a big honor. Taking Cuba. Taking Cuba in some form. Yeah. Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it, I think I can do anything I want with it.

3:33You want to know the truth. They're a very weakened nation right now. The New York Times reporting that the Trump administration has signaled to Cuban negotiators that the president there must go, but would leave the next steps up to the Cubans. The report says the move would allow economic changes in the country that the current president is unlikely to support while leaving the communist government in place. So we'll see what happens next there. And the president posting at 1114 Eastern time last night after Venezuela defeated Italy in the World Baseball Classic. Here's what he posted. He said, good things are happening to Venezuela lately.

4:11I wonder what this magic is all about. Statehood number 51. Anyone? President Donald J. Trump.

4:22No place like the White House. Do we agree? Thank you very much for being here. Our powerful military campaign to end the threats posed by the Iranian regime continued in full force over the past few days. They have been literally obliterated. The Air Force is gone. The Navy is gone. Many, many ships have been sunk. They're warfighting ships, but I guess they didn't know how to use them. And anti-aircraft is decimated. Their radar is gone and their leaders are gone. Joining us right now is White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. And Kevin, good morning to you. How are you?

5:01I'm doing well. Let's talk a little bit about the situation in the Middle East, what's happening in Iran and what that means for oil prices and maybe inflation longer term. We have seen prices spike. They came back down yesterday. But there are many questions about how long this will last, how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. And I just wonder how you're starting to figure this out, how you're starting to try and anticipate what that will mean for prices. Yeah, well, we are basically getting briefed on every nuance of the war every day and then thinking through the economic implications.

5:35We have an enormous amount of success so far in the sense that we've destroyed the military of Iran. We've coordinated 135 countries in the U.N., including no veto for China and Russia to isolate Iran. and we've coordinated a strategic reserve release of 35 countries, which could go up if it needs to. The bottom line is that the timeline that President Trump has stated over and over is that it's a four to six week war and that we're ahead of schedule. And so already you're seeing tankers are starting to dribble through the straits. And I think it's a sign of how little Iran has left. And so I think we're very optimistic that this is going to be over in the short run.

6:25And then there'll be price repercussions when it is over for a few weeks as the ships make it to the refineries and so on. But we've really got a plan for every corner of the disruption from fertilizer to getting fuel to the West Coast and so on. And we're highly confident that we've got this thing under control and that it'll end soon. Let's talk that through. When you say in soon, you think a matter of weeks, not months? Correct. Correct. That's right. And when that happens, where do you expect, let's just say WTI? I mean, we can talk through any of the energy prices, but most of the analysts that we've had on, and granted, they're all kind of dealing with the fog of war, trying to figure it out themselves, have said that they don't think prices will come back down to the 60s anytime soon.

7:12Do you? Is that in your forecast? Oh, you know, if you look at futures markets, they've got them going down into the 60s again by the fall. And I think that's relatively pessimistic. I think 75 was what WTI was for the December contract yesterday. It goes all the way down to the 50s past the year, you know. And so I think that you've got to understand that there's going to be a, we believe, an incredible risk premium for ending the terrorism, really, of the Iranians. The way I like to think about it, Becky, is that if you go back to 1975, Iran was the 18th largest economy on Earth. Now it's something like the 50th largest economy on Earth.

7:50They've destroyed their own country, but they've also discouraged investment in the entire Gulf region. I mean, don't forget that it's not just the Iranians, right? The Yemenis have been charging people blackmail to move their ships around. And so we're moving towards a world where the energy of the Middle East is accessible through free markets without extortion. And that's going to be a place where there's more investment and more oil, and it's going to drive oil prices down in the long run. But the final thing is that the U.S. economy is still, through this, fundamentally strong. We're still seeing strong signs of productivity growth.

8:28We had the Business Roundtable CEOs in town in Washington about a week ago. and everybody was talking about how solid things look. And so the other thing to mention is that Iran's strategy appeared to be that they could hurt the U.S. economy, and then that would make President Trump slow down. In fact, they're not hurting the U.S. economy very much at all. While gas prices are higher, the economy as a whole is sound. And there's no way that President Trump's going to back down until he sees this through to the end. What does that mean, sees this through to the end, meaning regime change, meaning the strait is reopened?

9:01But he wants to make sure that Iran cannot harm its neighbors and the U.S. ever again. And so he's destroyed the Navy, destroyed the Air Force, finished off most of the missile sites. And we want to know for sure that Iran is not going to challenge the world again with terrorism. And once we have a sense that we've accomplished that goal, we've defanged them, then President Trump will make the call on his own that the war is over. Kevin, certainly we're in a better position than a lot of our European or Asian countries are because they're so much more reliant on energy coming through the Strait of Hormuz.

9:41What kind of pressure do you think, A, they will put on us politically, and B, what kind of pricing increases might we anticipate from things that we import from those nations? Yeah, well, one of the things that, you know, Becky, we've talked about it before on the show, is that the U.S. is a net exporter of oil and finished product. But that we have pockets of the country, especially California, Alaska, the East Coast, where they're importing oil in part because of the Jones Act, which we just don't have enough U.S.-made vessels to move the oil around. And so I think that one of the concerns which we're following very, very closely is that the Asian economies, which are much more reliant on Middle East oil, they actually sell a lot of refined product in to the west coast of the U.S.

10:34And we're seeing some signs that they might be pulling that back to make sure that they have enough energy for themselves. And we've got a plan for that. And we're studying it closely. and we haven't seen disruptions yet. But that's the kind of thing that isn't going to happen in the U.S. because we have such sound energy production, but does mean that we might have to move a few chips to different parts of the board. Kevin, you know, when you think about the president has now postponed this meeting with President Xi in China, and I think one of the big questions is what the impact you think is going to, of what's happening on the Straits is ultimately going to be on the Chinese economy to the extent that when they get a cold, we get a cold.

11:14Well, you know, it's interesting, but, you know, the Chinese didn't veto the UN resolution condemning Iran. The Chinese are highly reliant on Iranian oil. And frankly, if the Iran problem goes away, it will be helpful for China as well. And so I think that in this, this is one case where the objectives of both countries are aligned, that we want, you know, a stable world oil market. and I think that President Trump and President Xi are good friends and that when this war is over, which will be sometime soon, I'm sure they'll get together and have a lot to talk about. And hopefully the Chinese will express some gratitude for what President Trump has done.

11:55When you math out the possibilities within your own group about the economy and this impact here and you say it's going to end sometime soon, what does that look like? Do you say 10 days is one version, 30 days is another, 60 days is another, or are you on a different timeline completely? Well, again, what we work off of is, first of all, what the president has said, which is that it's a four to six week program and we're ahead of schedule and we're in the third week. And so then we you could say call that a base case. But of course, you know, I get paid to worry. It's my job here in the White House.

12:32And then you think about, well, what if it's a little slower? We don't have much simulating to do if it's faster than that. But if it's a little bit slower, what happens then? But the fact is that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound, and that if it were to be extended, it wouldn't really disrupt the U.S. economy very much at all. It would hurt consumers, and we'd have to think about, you know, if that continued, what we would have to do about that. But that's, like, really the last of our concerns right now, because we're very confident that this thing is going ahead of schedule. Hey, Kevin, you mentioned that there are so many other things that come through the Strait of Hormuz that we do have concerns about.

13:10One would be fertilizer. Another would be helium, which is needed for the manufacturing of semiconductor chips. You said you have a plan. What is that plan to make sure that we are getting fertilizer to the proper places that it's needed? Because you can't get the fertilizer there late if you need to plant the crops. Right, well, the thing about fertilizer is that I know there are some people who live in fertilizer land on CNBC, but probably most people don't know about how fertilizer works in the U.S., but it's almost planting season, and there's a lot of fertilizer that usually goes down during planting season, including fertilizer that's based on ammonia and urea and nitrogen and then there's potash that goes in as well.

13:57The potash usually comes in the fall and a lot of this stuff is made from liquid natural gas and there's a facility in Qatar that produces so much fertilizer that it supplies maybe about 20 % of the fertilizer in the U.S. And so what we've been doing to it really as an insurance policy against disruption is we've been finding other sources and doing so really quite successfully. We've put licenses, established licenses for Venezuela to produce more fertilizer. We've had discussions with Baraco, which has the largest reserve of potash anywhere on earth. And so we've got all over the fertilizer problem.

14:41And I'm not saying that we can eliminate what disruption there is so far, but we can minimize it for sure. And that would be available for U.S. farmers or available throughout the world? How does it work and what's the time frame? We're focused on U.S. farmers and getting stuff to the U.S. farmers, that's right. But you're convinced that this planting season will be... We've identified the supplies that are disrupted from the Gulf and tried to successfully found alternative sources for a lot of it. Kevin Hassett, thank you for joining us this morning, Kevin. We appreciate your time. Thank you guys.

15:12Great to be here.

15:16Coming up on Squawk Pod, we're a day away from the confirmation hearing for President Trump's pick to replace Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. The lawmaker leading that hearing, Senator Rand Paul, speaks to us about his colleague, Senator Mark Wayne Mullins, day in the hot seat. I promised the administration a couple things. One, I would do this quickly. I didn't promise my support for the nominee, but I did promise I would do it quickly. But that doesn't mean it's going to be a hearing without scrutiny.

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17:19Welcome back to Squawk Pod from CNBC. Here's Andrew Ross Sorkin. We are over one month into the funding lapse of the Department of Homeland Security. And this week, the president's new pick to lead the agency will take the hot seat. Senator Mark Wayne Mullen is set for his confirmation hearing tomorrow. Joining us right now is Republican Senator Rand Paul. He is the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee. Let's start with the question you want to ask Mullen. What's your position on him and what you want to know? You know, if I let you know that today, you wouldn't come to the hearing. We're going to have a very fulsome discussion at the hearing.

17:57I think there will be really important questions asked about whether or not he has what it takes to lead these agencies. But I'm going to save that discussion for tomorrow. But I think it's an important one. I mean, look, the agencies are closed down because a lot of Americans, myself included, were upset at the improper use of force in Minnesota. I think Tom Homan came in and corrected a lot of those things. But really, ultimately, I think for Democrats to refund this, there's going to have to be an admission that the policies weren't being obeyed, the rules of engagement weren't being obeyed, and that they're going to do a better job.

18:32Now, whether or not this new nominee is willing to do that, that's an open question. Whether the new nominee will be a change in direction or more of the same direction is an open question. So I think we'll find that out a lot more after we go through the hearing tomorrow. What is your thought, though, going into this? You've worked with him before. You know him. Do you think that he's the right man for the job? I have some serious questions, and we will ask him tomorrow, but I'm not going to preview him because I want to ask questions tomorrow. and we're going to find out a lot more after the hearing tomorrow.

19:03Let me ask you a different question, and this has been in the news around Mark Wayne Mullen. The New York Times reported that Mullen has been a prolific stock trader. I don't know if you've followed this. He's argued that he hasn't been making these trades himself, but they go on to document some remarkable trading, By the way, remarkably successful trading, oftentimes with in stocks that he potentially oversaw or at least was exposed to, given the committees that he has been on. Yeah, the committee, for example, Armed Services, my understanding is that the staff there is forbidden from trading in defense contractors.

19:48That seems to make eminent sense to me. I think we ought to address that. Currently, there are no rules, but as far as a congressman or a senator on armed services trading and Raytheon or other companies that are large contractors with our Defense Department, I think a lot of people look at that and say, hmm, that doesn't really pass the smell test. Let me just give you some numbers and you tell me whether this passes the smell test. According to financial disclosure forms that he filed back in 2012, he was worth, his net worth was$2.8 million to$9 million. You have to give ranges. That's how this works.

20:28Today, in 2024, remember, he's been a senator the entire time. He's now worth between$29 million and$97 million. Yeah, wealth alone doesn't bother me. I aspire to be rich like every other American. So I think people who make wealth, I'm not opposed to. I think the question is in the details. If a lot of it is defense trading or trading on defense stocks, I think then the public will have to judge that. And I think more and more the public is skeptical of things like this. And so I think trading on stocks where you know any information about the stocks or even the run-up to war, I mean, we're more aware of it here than maybe the public is.

21:11although I don't know that's inside information. But trading and defense stocks in the run-up to war, I think it raises real questions. Once again, we'll reserve judgment until the hearing tomorrow. And I think there's going to be a full hearing of this. I promised the administration a couple things. One, I would do this quickly. I didn't promise my support for the nominee, but I did promise I would do it quickly. And so as a favor to the administration, I've done this very quickly. This will be done in record time. We will have the vote on Thursday as well. But that doesn't mean it's going to be a hearing without scrutiny.

21:45It's going to be a hearing that has sufficient scrutiny, and there will be a public hearing of all of this tomorrow. Senator, you mentioned the word war. We're all trying to understand what's happening in the straightforward moves and how that may end if it can. How do you see this playing out? Well, the one thing's for certain is rumors of war, even preceding war, jack up prices very quickly. The oil price went up very, very quickly. on the rumor of war and then with the actual war. The question is, is how sticky is it on the downside? Even if the war doesn't ultimately involve boots on the ground, if the extent of it is, you know, the extensive bombing, which is significant, it will depend on how many oil refineries have been hit, how much oil infrastructure has been hit, not only in Iran, but in the Gulf states as well.

22:32I suspect it's going to be quite sticky on the way down. I just think it's easier. I think emotions bid things up quickly and then the calming of emotions brings things down slowly. And I think the danger for that politically for Republicans is, you know, the war goes on another month. Maybe the stickiness or the slowness to prices come down isn't really complete by October, November and has a big effect on the election. Now I'm against the war, not for electoral reasons. I'm against the war because I don't see a national interest in us, you know, expending $1,$2 billion a day. But I also don't see it for our young men and women, some of whom I know that will serve in this.

23:12I really just don't believe that ultimately it's in our national interest to send our young men and women in to fight and die in Iran. Can you just say, explain though, how you think this ends? And I ask because Ray Dalio, the investor, said just yesterday, put out a note saying that, you know, people talk about an agreement. And he says that no No agreement will resolve this war because agreements are worthless. Whatever happens, leaving Hormuz in Iranian hands or taking control away from them, is likely to be the worst phase of the conflict. This final battle, which will make crystal clear which side won and which side lost control, is likely to be a very big one.

23:52I think he's probably accurate that there's not going to be an agreement in the end. I don't think we know who we'd make an agreement with. This has been one of my complaints through the years, not only with Iran, but with China and other adversaries, is that we don't have good de-confliction. We don't have good general-to-general, intermediate-level, senator-to-senator. We don't have a lot of discussion. So I think we have no idea even who to pick a phone up to even call. Most of the leadership has been killed and continues to be killed. I also don't see people that are really facing extinction.