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Squawk Pod - Episode Summary: NEC Director Kevin Hassett & Changes at Berkshire Hathaway (12/8/25)
Episode Description In this episode, the podcast hosts discuss the potential implications of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett being shortlisted for the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Hassett shares insights on monetary policy and the current economic environment. The episode also delves into Netflix's acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery's film and streaming assets, Elon Musk's comments regarding the EU, and significant leadership changes at Berkshire Hathaway as Warren Buffett prepares to step down.
Key Highlights
Kevin Hassett's Potential Role at the Federal Reserve
- Monetary Policy Insights:
- Kevin Hassett discusses his views on the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates.
- Anticipates a 25-basis-point cut aimed at addressing economic challenges, particularly inflation.
- Contender for Fed Chair:
- Hassett is regarded as a primary candidate for the next Fed chair with a growing likelihood (estimated at 78%).
- Emphasizes the importance of data-driven decisions rather than rigid forecasts about future rate cuts.
Netflix's Acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery
- Industry Context:
- The deal is significant as Netflix seeks to enhance its content library amid fierce competition from platforms like YouTube and Amazon Prime.
- Michael Wolff, former MTV President, highlights the necessity for Netflix to secure substantial programming and global franchises to succeed.
- Regulatory Perspectives:
- The hosts discuss the unusual involvement of President Trump in the approval process for Netflix's acquisition, suggesting potential challenges ahead.
- Debate on whether the deal could be construed as monopolistic or beneficial for competition in the streaming landscape.
Elon Musk's Dispute with the European Union
- Fined by the EU:
- Musk reacts strongly to a €140 million fine imposed on his social media platform, X, by the EU under its Digital Services Act.
- Discussion on how Musk’s remarks could affect perceptions of American tech companies in Europe.
Leadership Changes at Berkshire Hathaway
- Transition Planning:
- As Warren Buffett prepares to hand over CEO responsibilities to Greg Abel, Berkshire Hathaway announces significant leadership changes.
- Notable appointments include:
- Adam Johnson becomes President of Consumer Products and Services while continuing as CEO of NetJets.
- Nancy Pierce is appointed CEO of GEICO.
- Todd Combs resigns to lead J.P. Morgan's strategic investment group.
Economic Climate and Policy Discussions
- Inflation Concerns:
- The discussion highlights the ongoing inflationary pressure and its implications for consumer sentiment and economic policy.
- Hassett suggests that improving real wages through positive supply shocks could alleviate affordability issues faced by Americans.
Key Arguments
- Monetary Policy Management:
- There is a need for prudent management of interest rates that considers economic data and inflation trends.
- Netflix's Strategic Moves:
- The acquisition is framed as essential for Netflix to maintain its competitive edge in a rapidly evolving media landscape.
- Regulatory Environment:
- The hosts express skepticism about the administration's transparency compared to past administrations, particularly regarding major corporate transactions.
Conclusion The podcast episode provides an intricate look at the intersecting narratives of economic policy, corporate maneuvers, and regulatory challenges in the evolving landscape of media and finance as key players prepare for transitions and strategic shifts.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. The top contender for Fed chair, we think, Kevin Hassett, the sitting National Economic Council director. The president doesn't have a tough choice. He's got a guaranteed good choice. And if I happen to be that choice, I'll be pleased to help him serve. Another job on the table? Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers Discovery's streaming assets. It's a deal getting attention in the White House. I think that may very well be the first time I've ever heard the President of the United States saying that they were going to weigh in personally on a transaction.
0:42But former MTV President Michael Wolff is looking at Netflix, but zooming out at the entire media landscape. The facts here are that the company that is quickly becoming the monopoly is YouTube. Plus, the rest of today's news, Elon versus the EU, and a new org chart at Berkshire Hathaway when Warren Buffett steps down after 60 years running the company. All of these changes are taking place, of course, as Warren Buffett gets ready to hand over the CEO job to Greg Abel. It is Monday, December 8th, 2025. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand Becky by in 3, 2, 1, cue it, please. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC.
1:27We're live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. And here we go on a Monday morning. In time, President Trump saying he's going to be involved in the government's decision to OK Netflix's acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery's movie studio and streaming service. The president making those comments to reporters at the Kennedy Center last night. He said that he recently met with Netflix's co-CEO Ted Sarandos and flagged possible issues with the deal. Take a look at what he said. He came up. He was in the Oval Office last week.
2:01I have a lot of respect for him. He's a great person. But he's done one of the greatest jobs in the history of movies and other things. And he's got a lot of interesting things happening aside from what you're talking about. But it is a big market share. There's no question about it. It could be a problem. Chairs of Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery this morning. Take a look. Netflix at 101 bucks. Warner Brothers about 2571. I thought the most interesting piece of that interview was, I mean, there's sort of a whole thing we could deconstruct there. But the idea that he's saying, I'm going to be involved in the decision making is Justice Department is a very.
2:41No, but that's a very unique position to take as the president, at least publicly. I actually I was trying to think back. I think that may very well be the first time I've ever heard the president of the United States saying that they were going to weigh in personally on a transaction of any sort. Now, yes, it's always been a Justice Department that, you know, the lead of the Justice Department, somebody they appointed and all of that. But if you go back to the. Yeah, but we certainly always assumed that Trump would do that. Well, but if that's all we talk about. But if you go back to the famed AT &T transaction with Time Warner, which was called Time Warner back then, and the effort to block that transaction, and all of the commotion and conversation about was he involved in trying to block that transaction or wasn't he involved in trying to block that transaction, and the repeated efforts to suggest that he did not, you know, put his finger on any scale whatsoever, if you recall, that typically the Justice Department is supposed to act independently of.
3:50He said it out loud. He said it out loud. OK, that's the only difference, though, because every time. Yes. You know how many times? Yes, it's been said out loud. Oh, Comcast can't do it or oh, such and such or David Ellison can do it because they've. Yes. Or all these tech companies are giving. OK, so now we. So now it's it's so it's not new news. Well, it's a way to come out of the gates on Monday and say, oh, my God, look what Trump's doing again. No, it's a way to say this is a unheard of. It is unheard of. Even though you knew it was happening already. I think a lot of you said it almost every day.
4:25I think a lot of us suspected behind the scenes that he was involved in these. Did he did he at least make it look good in public? What did you say? At least you'd make it look good and not cop to it in public. That would be better if you would do it more surreptitiously. I'm not. You prefer that. Well, what's so interesting about this administration, and maybe this is the point that you're trying to make, which is it is all done. It is all done in front of you. How much do you love transparency? Love transparency. You do? It doesn't seem like it. How about can we just talk about suddenly? Remember Tom Lee going to be really rocky, but going to be a good month.
5:02Here we are. It was rocky. Was it not? I mean, we were worried about the stock market about a week ago or two weeks ago. Because if you look at everything, I think the Dow's been what I don't know if it actually hit 49 ,000, but it's pretty darn close. Right. I don't think the S &P hit 7 ,000, but it got up there really, really close. We're right on the cusp of actually making all that back, even with all the, once again, there's a lot of worry and angst about the market. Bitcoin, who knows? Bitcoin, 90%. Can I just ask you one other Netflix-oriented question, which I did find fascinating? You met with Sarandos for a couple hours, right?
5:42So I had actually done some reporting. I think you walked out of there thinking that it was okay. Where I was going, where Becky just went, which is, I wonder whether the president's signal to Sarandos or Sarandos misinterpreted the signal, if in fact there were signal. And this goes back to who's doing what and all of that. You don't put a$5.8 billion breakup fee on it if you don't have some sense that you think things are going to get through. Right. Clearly, Ted Sarandos thinks he's having this meeting with the president and thinks this president is giving him the high sign. you go for it buddy I even thought in a more diabolical way okay my original thinking is he met with the president president said looks good Ted looks good um president though has to make it look like they're going to do a lot of due diligence to make sure it is okay because of market share but maybe there was a wink and a nod as long as you behave Ted Sarandos as what is behaving mean as long as you you know as long as i as as you stay in my good favor i think he probably said it looks pretty good for you ted but just you know as long as you walk the walk and talk the talk i in other words the kind of stuff that you says that you say trump is doing to all tech and to all these people they he wants like gold boxes and he wants he wants everyone to kiss up to him.
7:08This is in the king's category. Okay. Right? That's what we're talking about here. We're talking about... We're talking about people come to kiss the ring on the king. We're talking about what hasn't been talked about in the past, but it's good to... I mean, whenever we talk about any company doing anything, we say, whoa, I don't know whether Trump would go for that. So I think that Sarandos got some good... They met for, I think, two hours. Yeah, a long time. So I think that he got some very positive overtures from the president. but I think he could screw it up probably. My understanding is that - Has he already?
7:41Like what is the talk that's coming from this? My understanding was that the president told Ted Sarandos in the Oval Office, look, I'm a free market guy. I wanted to go to the highest bidder. Literally talked about saying I wanted to go to the highest bidder. Yeah. You know, they went back and forth about what that really meant, that he wasn't necessarily in the Ellison's pocket, that there was a conversation about that. And that I think to some extent... I don't think he thinks he's in anybody's pocket. Well, but I think actually it was possible that that was sort of used to suggest to him, oh, the Ellisons are going around the world saying that, you know, they're in your pocket.
8:19And he wants to say, well, maybe, no, I'm not in anyone's pocket. I don't think President Trump would be in anybody's pocket. And I think that plays out with Elon Musk and anybody else who's tried to cross that. Hey, can I just tell you guys about some breaking news? Yeah. Is there some stuff that's come out? You want to finish that thought? No, I was just saying it's almost like, look, the Ellisons are pretty nice to me. We'll see how you do. Yeah, right. That makes sense. I'm trying to read through this. These are some releases that have just crossed the wires. Berkshire Hathaway is announcing some leadership changes and appointments.
8:52And this is happening less than a month from Greg Abel taking over the reins from Warren Buffett, who has been heading that company up for the last 60 years. In these changes that are coming, Adam Johnson, who is the CEO of NetJets, has been appointed to a new role. It's called the President of Consumer Products, Service, and Retailing Businesses of Berkshire Hathaway. He's going to continue as the CEO of NetJets, but he'll be expanding his role by taking up some additional responsibilities. He's been there for three decades at NetJets, including 10 years as the CEO. and Greg Abel says that Adam is an accomplished leader with a proven ability to deliver long-term shareholder value.
9:34Also, Todd Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway. He, of course, has been running a big chunk of the money, something like$20 billion or more of the money at Berkshire Hathaway, and he's been the CEO of GEICO for the last six years. Berkshire is saying that he's leaving and he's resigned to accept a new and important and interesting job at J.P. Morgan. He was on the board of J.P. Morgan. He was on the board of J.P. Morgan. He's going to be stepping down from the board of J.P. Morgan to pick up this new role that I'll talk about in just a second. It's the head of the strategic investment group at the Security and Resilience Initiative that Jamie's been talking about, Jamie Dimon, for some time.
10:14We'll talk more about that in just a moment, but just get through the rest of the Berkshire changes. is Nancy Pierce has been appointed the CEO of GEICO Effective immediately. She's been serving as the chief operating officer at GEICO, and she joined the company back in 1986. So Ajit Jain has some very nice things to say about her being practical, decisive, and focused on results. Mark Hamburg, who is Berkshire's chief financial officer, is going to be retiring from Berkshire Hathaway, but not for another year and a half. He'll be staying through June 1st of 2027. He's been with the company for 40 years, and Berkshire is saying they extend their gratitude to Mr.
10:50Hamburg for his exceptional leadership. Charles Chang is going to be succeeding him as senior vice president and chief financial officer of Berkshire, and that's effective in June 1st of 2026. They'll work together for a transition period. There's a new general counsel who's coming in, Michael O'Sullivan, who is coming from Snap, but previously he had worked at Munger Tolls, which, of course, Munger Tolls and Olsen is Charlie Munger's old law firm, and has been the legal firm for Berkshire for decades and decades. All of these changes are happening. And again, J.P. Morgan is just putting out this release on Todd Combs as well.
11:27He's going to be heading up the firm's efforts to make direct equity investments of an initial$10 billion as part of this$1.5 trillion initiative that J.P. Morgan has announced to address pressing needs in key sectors from critical minerals to frontier technologies. Jamie Dimon has talked an awful lot about how in this country we need to be more focused on things like the supply chain, things like defense, AI, critical minerals and mining issues. All of those things that we've heard an awful lot about from the Trump administration. Just places that we found we no longer are able to kind of care for ourselves.
12:05Jamie Dimon has talked about in the last six or eight weeks, he's been talking about this. They put out a release, I think, in October highlighting some of the things that they'd be doing here. The firm already has plans to loan a trillion dollars over the next 10 years. They're hoping to bump that up by 50 percent to one and a half trillion dollars. And now Todd's going to be running this pretty key and critical. Frontier? Ten billion dollars. What do they mean by frontier? I think they mean frontier in terms of new. Frontier technologies. Right. OK. Not frontier. It's not going out of the country.
12:36No, it's not like rolling out in the wagons, the covered wagons. No, but some of the frontiers, like that's, there's top tier. No, no, frontier technologies they're talking about, like AI. Developed countries, less developed companies. And you think of, you know, frontier countries. This is things for an America, I think. And by the way, the council that's heading all of this is going to be chaired by Jamie Dimon. It's got a group, a pretty impressive group of people on the board of this. Jeff Bezos is going to be joining it. Todd will be on the board. Todd Combs, Michael Dell. Jim Farley, Robert Gates, Alex Gorski, Condoleezza Rice, Paul Ryan, a lot of pretty important names of people you probably know, too.
13:18But this has been a huge initiative for Jamie Dimon. And so Todd's going to be running that venture capital arm of what's happening there. It sounds like, you know, kind of setting up to help make America great again in terms of bringing back a lot of things that we lost during globalization. Yeah. Very cool. So all of these changes are taking place, of course, as Warren Buffett gets ready to hand over the CEO job to Greg Abel. That's a job he told us about back in May where he surprised all of the shareholders who were there at the annual meeting. But this looks like a pretty set plan for an easy transition for how Greg's going to be taking over that company again starting January 1st.
13:59He's obviously been running things for a long time and helping along the way with all of these things. But this is the formal transition for that. and they're laying out their plans. Elon Musk calling for the European Union to be abolished. This after the bloc fined a social media company, X,$140 million. That followed Friday's decision by the European Commission to hit X with the fine after a two-year investigation into the company under the EU's Digital Services Act. Now, last week, the European Commission had said that infractions by X, which included what it called the deceptive design of X's blue checkmark for verification, a lack of advertising transparency, and they say the failure to provide access to public data for researchers.
14:40Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling the fine an attack by foreign governments on all American tech platforms. We'll see whether there is backlash from the U.S. government about that. All right, coming up, they've seen this movie before. I saw on Twitter, they said, ask a person if they know Europe's leading tech company. Ask a person on the street. And some people, a very small minority, can come up with ASML. Then that's it. ASML is the top. Spotify. Spotify is number two. But you're a leading financial journalist. You're able to come up with that. Say it loud and proud. Yeah, you're able to say that on the tip of your tongue.
15:24But most people would be like. Arm holdings. Be like crickets. Arm holdings. Come on, that's pretty big. It is. But think of, or when they've got plenty of other problems. But I think Elon, never hyperbolic. This fine, we really should, the entire EU. When did SAP fall from the top spot? The entire EU should be gone. The EU should be gone. Yeah, when did SAP fall from the top spot? Has that been a long time? Oh, I would think a bit. I mean, ASML, I do think, is such an important sort of component part of the whole. I wonder what's really behind it. What they're talking about, the blue checkmark.
15:58I mean, you can go to jail for a meme in certain countries. I think in Germany. Yeah. Cheese will be next. Coming up next on Squawk Pod, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, shortlisted for next Fed chair, watching a meeting he is not a part of but might be casting a shadow over is another interest rate to come. Chairman Powell has done a good job of herding the cats at the committee. If you look at the comments that different committee members were making just a few weeks ago, that it looked like they were very evenly split about whether they should cut or not. A big Squawk Box interview right after this.
16:43Welcome back to Squawk Pod from CNBC. The Federal Reserve's Rate-Setting Committee begins a two-day meeting tomorrow, and the Trump White House is expecting and calling for a 25-basis-point cut. This would be the third consecutive cut by the central bank, hoped by many to help ease the pain of consistently higher prices. But complicating the Fed's outlook are a number of factors. Missing data about the economy not collected during the government shutdown. Some dissension among the voting members of the committee about how hawkish to be towards interest rates. and the general consensus that President Trump can't wait to replace current chair Jay Powell with a hand-picked successor.
17:27One man on the short list, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. He was an advisor in the first Trump term and, if he got the Fed nod, would follow another colleague, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Myron, appointed by the president as a Fed governor earlier this year. Hassett looks like the man for the job. Wharton School professor and noted market watcher Jeremy Siegel joined our TV broadcast today and laid out the state of the candidates. I think is Kevin, I think in the 70s now, as the probability of the next Fed chair, which Trump says he will announce at the beginning of the new year.
18:04He certainly has gained in prominence. And what he says is going to start moving the market much more than in the past. And Kevin Hassett himself joined Squawk Box. Joe Kernan takes things from here. Joining us now, the aforementioned White House National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, who's, I don't know, it's growing. He's growing in size. And I think I need to call you Mr. Director now, just in anticipation of maybe even greater things for you in the future. No, Kevin, that's all you got. You're at 78 % now on some of the things. So we're going to have a wide ranging talk, Kevin, because it all.
18:45Oh, I just said I was going to call you Mr. Director and then I called you Kevin. But you think about 3 percent inflation, affordability. Should the Fed be cutting? I think Myron would like even more than 25 basis point cut. We might have dissension on both sides. What do you think the Fed should be doing right now? Doing more than 25 or should it be a dovish cut instead of what people are predicting? people are predicting a hawkish cut where they they jawbone that maybe this is it well it looks to me like uh chairman powell has done a good job of hurting the cats at the committee that if you look at the comments that different committee members were making just a few weeks ago that it looked like they're very evenly split about whether they should cut or not and i think that chairman powell uh agrees with me on this one that we should probably continue to get the rate uh down some uh do so prudently with an eye on the data.
19:41And so I think that it's an example of you're managing a committee. The committee was really in diverse opinions before, and it looks like Chairman Powell has done a good job of getting people to circle around the futures markets the right answer. Well, how restrictive do you think the Fed is right now in terms of away from where it should be? How much would you, let's say you were in the job, What would you be looking forward to in addition to this cut and then next year? How many more? You know, I hate to disappoint with the sort of counting of cuts, but I can say that what you need to do is watch the data.
20:18We've got a lot of missing data because of the government shutdowns. We're going to get really back-to-back jobs numbers pretty soon. And so, yeah, I think that the Fed chair's job is to watch the data and to adjust and to explain, you know, why they're doing what they're doing. And so to say I'm going to do this over the next six months would be irresponsible, really. And I know you don't want me to be irresponsible. I mean, you do sometimes, but not right now. No, I do. I do. And I'm not expecting a lot of answers about whether you know whether you are the president's pick or not. But when the president sort of the betting markets went up to 80 percent after that meeting where you were you were standing there.
20:56I was watching. I was laying on the side, yeah. You were standing there and he said, yeah, we've got one in the room, a potential. And I've done your face because it was kind of like and I was just wondering, what was you what were you thinking at the time? Wow, I got it or wow, I'm embarrassed or wow, I wish you wouldn't do this or just whatever the president wants to do. I'm OK with. What were you thinking when he said that? First, I support the president 100 percent. And he's very, very good at like playing the drama of things. The thing I got to say, though, is people are talking about it.
21:30I think the markets kind of have it wrong about how the president has a tough choice. You know, if you look at it, Chris Waller is one of the best monetary theorists of the last generation. He's got papers in places like the Journal of Economic Theory that were really the pathbreaking papers that showed us how to model monetary policy. Mickey Bowman's the best regulator on Earth. I talk to her all the time when I'm trying to think about what about this, what about that, what happened to SVB. And Kevin Warsh is about the most experienced Fed person that there is. He was there during the financial crisis before.
22:00So the point is that the president doesn't have a tough choice. He's got a guaranteed good choice. And if I happen to be that choice, I'll be pleased to help him serve. I want to get into the affordability thing eventually, but I want to get into it this way. We've had a couple of people defend you recently. Brad Gerstner, we just had Jeremy Siegel say, you're not going to be a rubber stamp in terms of easy monetary policy, that you're a, you know, an established economist that would make the right decisions, I guess, to raise. But it does, at 3 % inflation, it is on everyone's mind right now, because that's above target.
22:37That's much higher than what the Fed would like. And I want to talk about affordability, because suddenly it's a buzzword. Look, 23 % of these price increases happened under the Biden administration. Now, the president's been in for not even a year, but inflation is still too hot and it's above where it was when he came in. So you would need to think about, as a Fed chief, whether cutting is the right move right now. And there's an article in the Journal Today, advisor urging the president to start acknowledging that people are hurting or that there's an affordability problem. And he's been saying it's kind of like a democratic talking point that doesn't exist.
23:20How should you be handling this? Because you know, the mainstream media is going to play it up. The buck stops with who's in the White House. And even if it was Biden's problem, the president's getting blamed. Right. Well, the way that in the end, you know, with an eye on the horizon that this problem gets fixed is that real wage growth goes up enough so that that huge 20, 23 % hole that was dug by Joe Biden is a thing of the past because people have money in their pockets, enough money in their pockets to bring their real standard of living back up. The real standard of living in the U.S., the purchasing power of ordinary Americans, has gone up by about $1 ,200 so far this year.
23:56If you look at the great data on Friday that said that real wages were up 2.5 % over the last few months, that happens when you get positive supply in the economy, and that's what drives growth up and prices down. And so what you want to do is lock that kind of gain in where you're seeing real wages coming from positive supply shocks. And if you do that, then just as in the 90s when we had positive supply shocks from the computer and Alan Greenspan was willing to sort of let the economy run a little bit hotter, we have an opportunity with AI and all the productivity that we're seeing to do so again, but to do so with a great deal of caution as you watch the inflation numbers go by.
24:33Because the one thing we know is that inflation hurts everybody, everybody in the economy. And you saw that in the last election. I'm sure the last election was very much an inflation election. Kevin, nobody likes inflation. And I think part of this administration's plan to try and get affordability really within more affordability, I should say, out there is to lower mortgage rates. Right. Have car loans come down. Part of that is the Fed lowering those interest rates. We have seen the 10-year Treasury jump up. It's not a spike, but 414 versus 4 on the expectation even that when the Fed is going to cut rates again, we think, to see the 10-year move higher just as it did when the Fed originally cut 100 basis points.
25:21It does raise questions about how much control the Fed has over the longer term, longer into the bond market, what that means for things like mortgage rates that are set off of the 10 year. We had Ed Yardinian on this morning and he said he thinks it may be that the bond market is concerned that inflation is not under control at this point. What do you think? Well, I think the bond market is still like much improved from the beginning of the year. It's fluctuating around a little bit now. I think in part that could be related to the uncertainty over what the Fed was going to do and signal in this meeting.
25:57The bottom line is that if we get inflation down with positive growth like happened in the 90s because of the positive supply shock, so that there's plenty of room for the 10-year to go down. But that's going to require discipline and keeping a close eye on things. But absolutely, when you see real wage growth over the last three months of about two and a half percent, that's a sign of we're in the midst of a positive supply shock. That's really good news, both for equity markets and for bond markets. I just wondered, is this article accurate? Have some advisors been saying to the president, you've got to recalibrate your response to afford it?
26:39And I can remember during the Biden administration when the Biden administration would blame the feeling that the economy wasn't going well on the media. I used to say that's that's just patently absurd. But that's kind of what we're hearing now that others, you know, almost, you know, ignore the public's feelings about how, you know, they feel about the economy at your own peril. And I'm just wondering, did that ring true to the president, that maybe he needs to, you know, he's in the White House. It may not have caused it, but the buck stops with whoever's in the White House right now in terms of how people are feeling.
Read the full transcript
27:16There's a huge amount of positive news that the president is going to be breaking this week about the economy. You know, we've got a person who actually approached the studio with me, walked with me, who's tracking the openings, the groundbreakings for the new factories that are in the trillions of dollars of announcements that the president's been making. And we're up to almost 30 of those that actually the groundbreakings have happened. And so there's a lot of positive news that's positive for people's jobs, for people's incomes and for inflation. And President Trump is just going to go out there and remind people of that.
27:50But in the end, again, going back to the eye on the horizon that President Trump's economic policies were profoundly popular just before COVID in his first term because he had$6 ,500 of income growth after the big tax cuts. And so right now we're going into next year where the typical person who's got no tax on tips, no tax on overtime is probably going to see an extra$1 ,600 to$2 ,000. A lot of that will come as tax refunds in the beginning of the year. That kind of stuff is going to make it so that people are going to look at their wallets and say, oh boy, this guy's really making me better off.
28:23And in the end, that's more important than any poll. The final thing I got to say is that we did look at a lot of those sentiment, the software indicators over the last few weeks. And we found a pattern that I'm sure you guys could find a chart that would show, which is that consumer sentiment tends to crater when there's a government shutdown. And so we have sort of back to back 4 % quarters coming in, and then we got the government shutdown and all the chaos related to that. And the sentiment indicators went down, but the hard indicators really didn't. And that's a pattern that we've seen over and over again.
28:54Kevin, the Democrats would say the shutdown was entirely about these subsidies, even though that's what they picked to shut down the government over, obviously. But you can't talk about inflation if you don't talk about health care and rising costs that are across the board in health care. What do you think, not just Republicans, I don't know if it could ever be bipartisan, but what should the government be doing about these subsidies right now? Should there be, in good faith, bipartisan talks about extending these subsidies or not without guardrails? How do you think that's going to go? Because it all comes into the affordability discussion.
29:37Well, the president and Republicans brought forward two big policies in the big, beautiful bill. One, about$50 billion to rural hospitals and then about$30 billion for cost sharing to help the people who might be affected by these increases. They were really a Democratic policy because of the expiration of the extra COVID subsidies. And so the cost-sharing stuff was thrown out by the parliamentarian, but it shows that there's room for negotiation about something that could be good for people. We obviously want lower health care costs, but also we've got to get the fundamentals down. And don't forget that for two years in a row under President Trump, we were able to get the Consumer Price Index for drug prices to go negative for the first time since World War II because all of the hard work we did working with drug companies to make drugs cheaper for Americans.
30:26and you've seen how much hard work we're doing again on that and I would expect that we're going to see another third year of a negative CPI because of that and so we got to get the fundamentals right and you know we're going to I'm going to see Senator Thune in the White House today I'm sure there will be some discussion about how we go forward with the health care debate up there on the hill between now and Christmas. Some other things are on President Trump's mind this morning Kevin just posting on true social there must be only one rule book if we're going to continue to lead in AI. We're beating all countries at this point in the race, but that won't last long if we're going to have 50 states, many of them bad actors involved in rules and the approval process.
31:07There can be no doubt about this. AI will be destroyed in its infancy. I will be doing a one rule executive order this week, and you can't expect a company to get 50 approvals every time they want to do something that will never work. Any comments on that, Mr. Director? I've seen a draft of what the president's talking about. It's been a top priority for him to make sure that we win the AI race. And I think that the order that he's promising to sign this week, I guess he's reviewed something close to a final over the weekend, is something that's going to really help the AI companies understand what the rules of the game are.
31:42As you know, there are some states that want to regulate these companies within an inch of their lives. And then when they make a misstep, find the heck out of them, just so that the states that are going bankrupt because of their profligate governments can take some money from the AI companies and so on. And so that's a game that President Trump isn't going to allow people to play. And this executive order that he's promised to come out is going to make it clear that there's one set of rules for American companies in the U.S. Hey, Kevin, one other question. We've been batting around the table this morning.
32:14as the president said just yesterday, that he was going to be part of making the decision about this Netflix transaction with Warner Brothers. And at least the comment that we were making in the past is that the president, this president and presidents prior, I believe, have never have never at least publicly declared their involvement in these decisions. They've historically been left to the antitrust department with inside of the Department of Justice. So how different is this and how should we think about that? Well, I don't think it's just rare for presidents to have opinions about big society-changing mergers.
32:52But in the end, the Justice Department is going to study things like the Herfindahl Index, the concentration in this industry, the amount of competition that is reduced because of this big merger, and what the responses of all the other companies that are playing in this space might be. That's going to be something that goes on for quite a while. And I think the president is just very interested in making sure that there's a lot of analysis to make sure that we make the right choice Do you think that there's more? To it now though the the relationship that that a company can have with the president than in past administrations is it that I think that's what Andrew's alluded Is it different than it's been in the past?
33:32Do you think the influence that the president Trump? I think I you know I haven't been inside any other administration than the Trump administration. But I could say something about the Trump administration is that it's about the most transparent, is the most transparent administration I've seen in my lifetime. Now we agree with, Kevin. And so what the other guys were doing probably, you know, is they weren't telling you. And so it's harder to sell. But Mr. Trump lets you know how he feels. And that really, really makes him a wonderful person to work for. I can remember when I came in to work for him the first day in 2017, he sort of patted me on the back and said, don't worry, a lot of people are going to be grumbling at you because you're coming out to the White House and I got your back.
34:13And he's had my back the whole time, and I really respect him for that. All right, Kevin. Yeah. I think it's sometimes so transparent, people are like, oh, I really can't believe what there's no, I'm just kidding. Thanks for all your time today, Mr. Director. I don't know what we're going to be calling you. and, you know, as long as we call you to dinner, you don't care what we call you. But all right, see you later. Thanks. Thanks a lot, Joe. Great to see you. Up next on Squawk Pod, former MTV president Michael Wolff weighs in on the media story we can't stop talking about, Netflix's winning bid for the film and TV assets of Warner Brothers Discovery.
34:54The bigger issue here is sports. You've got Amazon going very deep on sports. You've got YouTube going deep on sports. And at the same time, both Peacock and Paramount Plus have a lot of sports. And you know who doesn't is Warner. We'll be right back.
35:16And we're back. This is Squawk Pod. Up on Becky, cue. You're watching Squawk Box right here on CNBC. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Netflix's winning bid for Warner Brothers Discovery's film and streaming assets still has, obviously, a long way to go before it's finalized. Join us now with his take on the deal. Former MTV president and COO Michael Wolfe, he's co-founder and CEO of Activate. What did you think, what had happened, and your overall impression? It's a must-do for Netflix. For Netflix. And there are a couple reasons. One, for anybody to succeed in streaming, they need two things.
35:56They need one, global franchises that really work everywhere. And they need large volumes of programming. And so if you look at it, Netflix really isn't competing just with HBO Max. They're competing. Their biggest competitor is YouTube. And then you've got Amazon Prime. And then the other is Tubi TV. So people forget about both Amazon Prime and Tubi TV, which is owned by Fox. So it comes down to even the number of titles. So right now, if you look at the comparison, Netflix has 7 ,000 titles. HBO has 4 ,000 titles. Prime, Amazon Prime has 25 ,000 and Tubi has 70 ,000. So this market, they really, in a lot of ways, they had to have this.
36:48And then earlier you were talking about Peacock and about Paramount+. They both have something that Netflix doesn't have. They have live sports. And that's the other place where this game is going to be played. And they don't get live sports with the HBO Max deal. Because just when you started, it's like they had to have this. Netflix is the is the you know, the elephant in the room right now in terms of having succeeded in media at the expense of everybody else, all the legacy players. So I would have thought you would have said if Netflix has to have it, how much did Comcast have to have it?
37:30How much did the other suitors need? They needed it even more than Netflix. Well, they needed it. But the Netflix Netflix is the default. Where most people start, when they're looking at streaming, they start with Netflix. Right. When they look at where they're actually watching, they start with YouTube. In a lot of ways, YouTube is TV for a number of people. Some people said that this does nothing to help Netflix compete against YouTube, just buying a library of old boomer films. It does, because there are two different modalities in terms of viewing. If on YouTube, what you're watching is short.
38:04You're watching, in a lot of cases, under three to four minutes, and especially even less so now with YouTube Shorts. When you look at Netflix and HBO Max and Amazon Prime and Tubi, you're watching much longer form. You're watching hours, you're watching two-hour movies. Are they going to continue to put out the theatrical releases at the same pace that Warner Brothers has to this point? Because there's some people concerned about whether they'll really stick to that or not. It's not clear, but I can tell you one thing, which is all of the studios, the things that they're going at with big releases are really the top franchise films.
38:43And that's going to continue because they need that audience build and they need the huge amount of advertising and promotion that comes around that. Otherwise, those films aren't as valuable when they're on a streaming service. What do you make of what we were talking earlier about this? If you are Paramount right now or you're Comcast or you name the other Sony even, I mean, there's a couple of players around. Do you try to do a deal quickly, maybe among yourselves, to try to draft off of this deal, meaning from a regulatory perspective? If there's two deals in front of the DOJ and you're starting to think about competition in that way, that's different than one deal and waiting effectively 18 months, 24 months or whatever, however long you think it's going to take to then figure out how to pick apart the pieces later if you think that deal gets blocked.
39:32Do you see what I'm saying? Yeah, I think that the rationale will be less about getting approval, and it'll be much more about figuring out how they're going to put together a service that really can rival the new Netflix service, especially because it's going to take a while for this deal to clear. Right, no, no, but what I'm saying is either you sit around and you say to yourself, this deal is not going to make it, and we're going to spend all of our firepower, all of our energy to try to upend this transaction in Washington and pray that in 18 months this deal doesn't happen, in which case then you're a paramount, you go back at it in some other way, or then Comcast has an opportunity, whatever.
40:13Or you say to yourself, the train has left the station, I'm letting the train go, and I'm going to actually just now deal with it, and I'm going to try to make my own deal. I think it's the latter. I think it's really around figuring out you're not going to wait. I mean, there's the rationale for the deal. I mean, regardless of whether or not it's the whims of the president, you put that aside. The rationale for the deal from a market share perspective, it really isn't great. I brought the numbers. Here's the percentage of TV viewing. So you've got 46 percent of TV viewing is streaming. 12.9 percent is YouTube.
40:49Eight percent is Netflix. 4.8 Disney. Warner Brothers Discovery is 1.3%. But this is a question about definition. When you say TV market share, some people say it should be eyeball market share in terms of time spent, in which case YouTube would be, what number would that really be? YouTube is 12.9%. 12.9%. YouTube is of eyeballs. So you're looking at it as an eyeball game. Right, because that's really what we have to look at. But then would you put video games in that marketplace? Well, that's not TV. Well, but this is why, but what I'm saying is, and by the way, some people are going to say, it's the theater business, because that's a specific business, and this can have an impact on the theater business.
41:34You can keep adding it up, but still, the steel gets smaller. Okay, here's one second. Is President Trump right that Netflix has way too much power already and that this could be too big? It reminds me of Kroger trying to merge with some other supermarket chain when you got Amazon and Walmart. You're not even defining what the current market or the future market is. You're saying Netflix is not a monopoly right now. No, it's not. So do you think this passes regulatory muster when it comes down? On the merits of it, absolutely. It should pass. So then when the president says there's problems, it's way too big.
42:11They got way too much control of streaming. He's missing all the other things. I think he's missing out on the facts. I mean, the facts here are that the company that is quickly becoming the monopoly is YouTube. OK, so there's a cynical take. The most cynical take that you could have on this transaction is that Netflix says themselves, for$5.8 billion, potentially, I can slow everybody else's train down. Meaning, I'm effectively paying for two years of regulatory mischagas. during that two-year period, I'm going to be able to make all sorts of new shows. People are going to come to us. They're not going to go to HBO or any of these other services because no one's going to know what's going on.
42:55And I'm going to win. And if that's what it costs, that's what it costs. What do you make of that? I think I don't agree with this. In a sort of defensive posture. I don't agree with the cynical point of view. And there are a couple of reasons. One of them is the overlap among these services is pretty low. The overlap with HBO Max and Netflix, roughly about 30 percent. The overlap with Netflix and Amazon is about 60 percent. So it's not as if they're going to crowd somebody else at this point. No, but look, I'm in the creative business. I like to try to make shows and do things. If you were going to sell a show today, who would you sell your show to?
43:32In this, right this minute, how much more complicated does it get to sell a show to an HBO, for example, right now when you don't know what its future is going to be? Or maybe even a Paramount or whomever, whomever. Then it would be to Netflix because Netflix now looks like they're in the clear winner seat. But the cynical point of view is that if you're a producer of television or films, you're going to sell your show to the people who are going to pay you the most. I mean, right now, this is a buyer's market. It's not a seller's market in terms of shows. A couple of years ago, it was a seller's market.
44:06By the way, boy, is that true. Yeah. So that's not where this comes down to. This comes down to really the bigger issue here is sports. You've got Amazon going very deep on sports. You've got YouTube going deep on sports. And at the same time, both Peacock and Paramount Plus have a lot of sports. And, you know, who doesn't is Warner Brothers Discovery doesn't have any sports. Michael, thank you. That is Squawk Pod for today, this Monday. Thanks for starting your week with us. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern.
44:50To get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears, please follow Squawk Pod wherever you get your podcasts. Have a great day. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow. We are clear. Thanks, guys.
From the publisher
Sitting National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is shortlisted to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Director Hassett weighs in on monetary policy–despite not being in the role quite yet. As the media world digests Netflix’s winning bid for Warner Brothers Discovery’s film and streaming assets. Former MTV president Michael Wolf explains Netflix’s position in the industry and the battle for eyeballs. Plus, Elon Musk is firing back at the European Union after the bloc fined X $140m, and changes are afoot at Berkshire Hathaway just as Warren Buffett readies to hand the CEO reins to his successor Greg Abel.
Kevin Hassett - 20:47
Michael Wolf - 39:27
In this episode:
Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick
Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk
Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin
Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie
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