In short
NVIDIA’s blowout quarter and what it signals for AI demand and margins; U.S. economic pressure on Iran (tariffs/sanctions) and implications for China and the midterms; travel trends showing consumer resilience via an “E-shaped economy.”
Guests (backgrounds)
- Christina Partsinevelis: CNBC analyst covering markets/tech earnings; breaks down NVIDIA’s report.
- Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA): Gulf War combat veteran; former businessman; served in Treasury; discusses Iran policy and domestic politics.
- Jason Nguyen: CEO of Chase Travel; leads travel booking for Chase card members; uses booking data to assess consumer behavior.
Key claims
- NVIDIA: demand is broadening beyond “big four” hyperscalers; revenue forecast surprised the Street; memory costs were higher than expected; price hikes helped margins; buybacks expected to continue.
- Iran: economic pressure is “working” (Iran economy down, inflation/currency worsening); secondary sanctions aim to tighten pressure on trading partners, including China.
- Consumer/travel: despite higher prices, bookings are up; income brackets are performing similarly (“E-shaped economy”), with value-seeking via points and price-matching.
Notable examples
- Amazon to deploy 2 million more GPUs; NVIDIA “millions” of new Vera CPUs.
- Travel: Labor Day bookings up 17%; average hotel rate >$500 and air >$1,000; top destinations include New York; new markets include Lisbon, Edinburgh, and “BAMF Canada.”
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOIntroduction to the Episode
0:00 to 0:40
Introduction to the themes and topics for today's episode.
“To realize the future America needs, we understand what's needed from us.”
NVIDIA's Quarter Analysis
2:04 to 4:10
Discussion on NVIDIA's impressive quarterly performance and market impact.
“Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC.”
Challenges Facing NVIDIA
4:10 to 6:40
Exploration of challenges NVIDIA faces from competition and rising costs.
“I know on X there's a lot of complaints about that.”
Market Expectations and Future Growth
6:40 to 8:34
Insight into market expectations for NVIDIA and projected growth rates.
“NVIDIA, you know, the heart of everything.”
Impact of AI on Employment
8:34 to 10:41
Discussion on how AI advancements may affect human employment in the future.
“and decide whether the internet was going to be as big as it is or transformation.”
Upcoming Legislative Issues
10:41 to 14:00
Preview of upcoming conversations on tariffs and political dynamics.
“for all the money we're investing, it just seems like a lot of humans are going to get displaced.”
Upcoming Legislative Issues
14:06 to 14:25
Preview of upcoming conversations on tariffs and political dynamics.
“including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading.”
Economic Pressure on Iran
15:54 to 21:18
Senator McCormick discusses the economic measures against Iran and their impact.
“The Senate's going to get back to business in a couple of weeks with plenty on the agenda ahead of the midterms.”
Midterms and Economic Impact
21:18 to 23:59
Discussion on how current policies are affecting midterm elections and constituents.
“When you when you think about the midterms more broadly across the country, there seems to be, you know, you're seeing the DSA on one side.”
Bipartisanship with Senator Fetterman
23:59 to 28:01
Senator McCormick shares insights on bipartisanship with Senator Fetterman.
“You've done events together and the like, that now people in the state are saying that he's become so he's now so popular in some cases, he's now more popular and viewed more warmly than than you are.”
Show all 16 chapters
Economic Forces and Congressional Responsibility
28:01 to 32:20
Discussing the impact of debt and interest rates on the economy and Congress's role in addressing these issues.
“But but but make no mistake, I think and I think of the sector here, he would agree as well that what we're seeing in terms of interest rates is a is a the the impact of some very fundamental forces.”
Transition to Travel Trends
32:20 to 32:50
Introduction to the upcoming discussion on travel trends and consumer behavior as Labor Day approaches.
“Up next, despite the higher price of getting away, Chase Travel CEO Jason Wynn says Americans are still prioritizing vacation.”
Transition to Travel Trends
32:55 to 33:20
Introduction to the upcoming discussion on travel trends and consumer behavior as Labor Day approaches.
“Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast, or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.”
Consumer Resilience in Travel
33:20 to 34:30
Exploring how Americans prioritize travel despite rising prices and the insights from Chase Travel's CEO.
“Normally in these ads, you'd expect someone like me to ask you to buy something, but I want to ask you to do something different.”
Understanding the E-Shaped Economy
34:30 to 41:14
Analyzing the performance of different income brackets in travel, introducing the concept of an E-shaped economy.
“I'm Joe Kernan, along with Andrew Ross Sorkin.”
Collective Future and Responsibility
42:00 to 42:19
Discussion on the importance of securing a shared future for the nation.
“The future we must secure together for our nation.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Dave McCormick:To realize the future America needs, we understand what's needed from us. To face each threat head on. We've earned our place in the fight for our nation's future. We are Marines. We were made for this. Nothing beats tradition, like weekly game nights at Mom's house.
0:19Kristina Partsinevelos:And Tostitos, crafted with masa made the traditional way. Starting with whole corn kernels, with flavors worth gathering around. like a hint of lime and Mexican street corn and no artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives. That's the Tostitos way. Bring Tostitos to your next game night
0:37Dave McCormick:and you'll be winning either way. Tostitos, tradition matters.
0:44Jason Wynn:Bring in show music, please.
0:48Kristina Partsinevelos:This is Squawk Pod and I'm CNBC producer Cameron Costa. On today's episode, AI anxiety be gone. Maybe? It was a blowout quarter for the world's most valuable company, NVIDIA. After a blockbuster revenue forecast, investors seem relieved. But there's always more to the story. Christina Partsinevelis breaks down the report. Even NVIDIA, the most important tech company out there, wasn't prepared for how expensive memory costs are going to be. Then, President Trump's plan for an economic D-Day in Iran. Pennsylvania Senator Republican Dave McCormick joins us. a veteran, an elected, and a former businessman with an eye on jail politics.
1:31Dave McCormick:This war with Iran is an added burden on an already weak Chinese economy.
1:38Kristina Partsinevelos:And finally, what travel trends can tell us about the American consumer? CEO of Chase Travel, Jason Nguyen, doesn't see too many trade downs, despite the pressure on American wallets.
1:49Jason Wynn:Internally, we've started to call it the E-shaped economy because each one of the income brackets is performing almost equally well to each other.
1:58Kristina Partsinevelos:It is Thursday, August 27th, and Squawk Pod begins right now.
2:03Jason Wynn:Stand, Andrew, bye. In three, two, one, cue Andrew. Good morning. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live at the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Andrew Ross Sorkin, along with Joe Kern. Becky is off today, but it's a big news day. So we have somebody very special sitting in her chair. We'll get to that in just a moment. We're going to wait for the proper introduction. One of the key reports of the week, morning, month, year, it's in the books. And Christina Partsinevelis, which we already talked about, joins us with more on NVIDIA's quarter. And Christina, just as an intro, Stock's up to 200 and change.
2:45Jason Wynn:I guess I didn't do the math yesterday on an analyst we had. He had a$400 price target. It's a$5 trillion company at 200. Does that equate to$10 trillion?
2:56Kristina Partsinevelos:It could eventually. And you're even seeing more of the re-rating. And Wedbush, for example, they also raised theirs to 400.
3:03Jason Wynn:To 400.
3:03Kristina Partsinevelos:Yeah, so perhaps that's going to be...
3:04Jason Wynn:So there will be a$10 trillion.
3:06Kristina Partsinevelos:But that's why we're seeing the stock up at 7%, because the re-rate from a lot of these analysts, They're going to be increasing all of their estimates because now they realize they're wrong. And why am I saying that? The worry hanging over NVIDIA all year is that its biggest customers are turning into competitors. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, all designing their own chips to lean on NVIDIA less. But on the call, CEO Jensen Wong, answer was, in effect, let them. Because those four are only half of NVIDIA's business now. The other half is everyone else. AI startups, enterprises, governments, smaller clouds, sovereign.
3:37Kristina Partsinevelos:And it's growing faster, up 138 % last quarter, year over year versus 102 % for the big four. Jensen Wong said those customers want the whole NVIDIA system and aren't just building their own chips like the hyperscalers. And even the hyperscaler, with the most reason to pull away, leaned in. Amazon will deploy another 2 million GPUs this quarter. Plus, Jensen Wong told Mad Money, Jim Cramer last night, millions of NVIDIA new Vera CPUs. It wasn't all clean, of course. You can nitpick certain things. Margins guided lower before price hikes pulled them back up. Receivables climbed. I know on X there's a lot of complaints about that.
4:15Kristina Partsinevelos:And then the AI Labs NVIDIA's financing will be about a quarter of next year's business. The concentration that worries bears. NVIDIA says the risk is, quote, limited and that those one-time AI Lab investments won't repeat once the companies go public, freeing up more cash next year for buybacks. Listen in. This last quarter bought back 60 percent and we're going to increase that going forward. So so I think I think we're where we feel the same way. Buying back NVIDIA stock is a tremendous opportunity for us. So the concerns are real, but none of it dented the story that matters. Demand NVIDIA still can't fully meet from a customer base that keeps getting wider and diversifying away from the hyperscalers.
4:59Jason Wynn:I mean, when the results of companies grow into the market cap that seemed high because it was anticipating such amazing things, $96 billion in revenue in the quarter. For the quarter. Is that like a billion a day, basically?
5:18Kristina Partsinevelos:Yeah, basically. And the concern, too, is that if you were to nitpick, the stock initially dropped because the guide was 108. So buy-side numbers are becoming increasingly important for a lot of these tech earnings. And the buy-side number was$109, I should say, so a billion dollars off. And then the gross margins are starting to taper off, which is kind of what we knew. But immediately on the earnings call, you had the CFO say that it's going to taper and then come back up with price hikes, which are happening in Q1, something that was reported just a few days ago, 15 % to 17 % price hikes. The thing that I took away, too, from there is that even NVIDIA, the most important tech company out there, wasn't prepared for how expensive memory costs are going to be.
5:59Kristina Partsinevelos:They even said it, you know, paraphrasing, they were caught off guard by that. And so they're passing it on to consumers. So again, this is going to be a major issue, just, you know, inflationary with all of tech firms. Like how much of it is going to continue to pass on to consumers in the next several quarters?
6:13Jason Wynn:But the law of large numbers, that's what I was getting at, I guess, with$10 trillion. But it is what it is. I mean, it's not overvalued where it is right now relative to other companies.
6:26Kristina Partsinevelos:It's a five-year average for the Ford P, if you're going to use that metric, is lower. It was yesterday, it was below 20 times, lower than Marvell in the 50s, AMD in the 40s, etc. Even just the stock performance, it was going into the print up 13 % year to date. The stock's over 70%. Everybody's complaining. NVIDIA, you know, the heart of everything. They're providing the whole stack all the way up to the frontier model, and yet it is undervalued. So what we're seeing this morning, the 7 % hike really has to do more with a lot of the analysts realizing their model was maybe a little wrong because they didn't anticipate NVIDIA providing that 70 % growth for 2028.
7:05Kristina Partsinevelos:They've never actually guided like that. And so that's why you're seeing a lot of these estimates change and adding to the drive this morning.
7:11Jason Wynn:I had one accounting course, but I understand margin. So if you do$96 billion in revenue, you don't want your expenses eating away at that.
7:21Kristina Partsinevelos:So price hikes play a big...
7:23Jason Wynn:But you said margins felt, what, from 15 to 14? No, from what? From what, 74? I know, 75.
7:29Kristina Partsinevelos:So it was 75 last quarter. The street was hoping for 74.7, not the whisper number. And it dropped to 74%. Oh, no. I know. So it's context, right? Yeah. People could say, well, Christina, what are you even... Why are you complaining about that? No, but people watch. I'm just looking at the numbers. People watch. Yeah, the buy side was expecting 74 points.
7:50Jason Wynn:So you apply that to$96 billion and you start to see how profitable it is.
7:54Kristina Partsinevelos:But you also see the law of large numbers that work with NVIDIA. You also see the expectations where people are constantly trying to seek out additional gains elsewhere, which is why NVIDIA has actually, for the last year or so, been used as a funding source to fund other bids, right? To fund other companies where there's a greater upside. because nobody could figure out what is the next catalyst for NVIDIA shares. So today we got that when they provided that 70 % increase in revenue for next year, fiscal 2028, something they've never done before. And so that's what took the street off guard.
8:29Jason Wynn:But it almost defines the term bellwether. Even in 1999, was there a single company where you could look at its fortunes and decide whether the internet was going to be as big as it is or transformation. I mean, if NVIDIA does well, you can say the AI trade is intact, can't you?
8:51Kristina Partsinevelos:So I'll take it from a positive, yes, but then the negative will be, well, but NVIDIA is working so hard at vendor financing, trying to get all of these smaller AI frontier labs, or smaller labs.
9:03Jason Wynn:Is there any notion that it's smoke and mirrors? I mean, it's not. I don't think it's smoking mirrors at all. But I do think there's going to be a question at some point along the way. Well, you've talked about it yesterday, whether it's an asset class. So it's not vendor. Well, I think there's going to be the asset class question. And there's also going to be the commoditization question of the LLMs and whether the LLMs themselves are going to be making enough money to make all this work. A return on what they've spent. Whereas right this minute, there's no question. They're all spending the money.
9:32Jason Wynn:And it's real money.
9:34Kristina Partsinevelos:And it's money that's being helped by getting it, like, with NVIDIA's help, credit wrapping.
9:38Jason Wynn:But the question's going to be if one day we wake up in a couple of years from now and people say, you know, this is helpful, but it's not that helpful. Or just all of the models ultimately converge at being so similar. People pick one or two. It just, that's where things get. Or the technology, there's a technological breakthrough on the software side that makes it much more efficient to run these models. That's the other thing that could happen.
10:05Kristina Partsinevelos:And so NVIDIA has a foothold in there with CUDA and all, and not only CUDA, just all the other offerings to developer platforms.
10:11Jason Wynn:You really need the use case of AI to expand to where it's really helpful in all regards. Unfortunately, every human on the planet won't be necessary anymore. And I think that's what I prefer Bill Gates.
10:22Kristina Partsinevelos:Wow, would you want to end on that positive note?
10:25Jason Wynn:No, I'm just saying it really looks like everything will be different. But I just don't see...
Read the full transcript
10:32Kristina Partsinevelos:the words that you never want to say, right?
10:34Jason Wynn:No, right, different this time. It looks like the way we do things, for the payoff to be as big as it needs to be for all the money we're investing, it just seems like a lot of humans are going to get displaced. It seems like we're not needed for any, we certainly didn't need calculus in high school once the HP came. It was. Did you revolve little spheres and stuff to find the volume? Did you do integral calculus?
10:59Kristina Partsinevelos:I carried my protractor with me, absolutely.
11:01Jason Wynn:And your protractor. Wow. That's a lie. You don't, you're too young for that. Yes. Oh, protractor. Not slide rule. You never use the slide rule. I use the slide rule.
11:10Kristina Partsinevelos:I use my abacus, too, if you really want to go there. Okay.
11:12Jason Wynn:All right. You should have said you use abacus. Thank you. It was well worth you making the trip. Was it in getting up? What time was your alarm?
11:20Kristina Partsinevelos:Yeah, it was tough.
11:21Jason Wynn:You got anything else going on?
11:22Kristina Partsinevelos:The music going on, so they don't want me to keep, do I have, I'm coming back in here until six o 'clock. Oh, you are.
11:26Jason Wynn:But anything else going on in your life? Oh, yeah, the baby. Yeah, all right.
11:30Kristina Partsinevelos:Now you can talk about it, right? You can actually say that in front of a woman, right? You're looking a little big.
11:34Jason Wynn:Well, you're glowing and beautiful and everything else. But we're safe, right? I don't need...
11:38Kristina Partsinevelos:You're safe for now.
11:42Jason Wynn:The White House reportedly considering a new round of tariffs on computer chips. A political report now saying the Trump administration is looking at expanding the number of tech products subject to tariffs. That includes laptops and data center services as servers as well. and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is said to be in favor of giving foreign countries relief from the tariffs if they decide to invest more in U.S. production. The White House telling Politico, quote, reassuring semiconductor manufacturing is a top priority for President Trump. That's an interesting one. Do you let foreign companies off the hook if they invest here?
12:17Jason Wynn:Is that the quid pro quo? And when you were reading it, I was thinking, you know, I don't know how Lutnick, he's kind of a, somewhat of a free market guy. All these guys that are in the Trump administration have modified or evolved in certain ways to make sure they can stay in the administration. Don't you think? We have a guy running things. And you might have your own opinions on how to do things, but you better find a way for your ideas to start. Well, you said he's kind of a free market person. This is not kind of a free market anything. I'm saying he is. Are you with me? So for him to be able to be on board and say, well, we'll do it if we do it this way.
12:59Jason Wynn:He's modifying and evolving in a way that the president could say, OK, Lutnik's all right. But he's trying to, you know, and I said, I think a lot of people in the administration, there's a guy running it. And it may he may want to do things differently than you would on your own. but, you know, you better figure out a way to at least make it sound like you agree with what the president wants to do. Cheese will be next.
13:27Kristina Partsinevelos:Coming up on Squawk Pod, a conversation with Pennsylvania Senator David McCormick. What's at stake for both parties in the midterms and bipartisanship with the other PA senator that everybody knows.
13:39Dave McCormick:I may be the best dressed senator from Pennsylvania, but he's the most popular. And I think he's popular for good reason.
13:46Kristina Partsinevelos:Plus, the international relations PhD, U.S. Army veteran, and former investor and CEO weighs in on the country's economy and Iran's economic D-Day. We'll be right back. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
14:29Kristina Partsinevelos:Normally in these ads, you'd expect someone like me to ask you to buy something. But I want to ask you to do something different. I'm Dave Ferenthal, and I'm a reporter for The New York Times. I'm an investigative reporter, which means that I follow the money inside of government and outside of government. The point of my job is to find things people are trying to hide. It involves talking to lots of people. It involves looking through lots and lots of documents. And if there weren't folks like me to go beyond the surface to understand who was really shaping what the government does, the public will be left in the dark about what the government's doing with your tax money, what the government's doing to you through regulations and spending.
15:03Kristina Partsinevelos:If you're like me and you think this kind of journalism is important, seek out a news source that does firsthand, fact-based reporting. If that's the New York Times, thank you. If that's your local paper, that's great too. Because where you get your information matters.
15:41Dave McCormick:All of us. We are Marines. We were made for this.
15:53Kristina Partsinevelos:Welcome back to Squawk Pod from CNBC.
15:56Jason Wynn:Up in Andrew. The Senate's going to get back to business in a couple of weeks with plenty on the agenda ahead of the midterms. Join us right now. Get into all of the big issues facing lawmakers. is Pennsylvania Senator Dave McCormick. And we should note he's a combat veteran of the first Gulf War. It's good to see you this morning. And I think given your experience in combat before and all of the conversation we've been having about the war in Iran and how this ultimately ends, I'm so curious what your reaction has been to the administration's proclamations in recent days, including the Treasury Secretary, Besson, because we were discussing this earlier, what he plans to do economically to try to impact Iran and whether you think that that, at this point, is going to be successful.
16:48Dave McCormick:Well, I think from the very beginning, President Trump had said we were going to use all the tools available to us, both military and economic, to achieve two objectives. Number one, Iran simply can't have a nuclear weapon. There can be no path to a nuclear weapon. And secondarily, that the Strait of Hormuz has to be open and maintained. And so I see this as just more of that economic pressure. And make no mistake, the blockade and the economic pressure we have is working. So if you look at the numbers in Iran, I think the economy's down, has shrunk by 5, 6 percent this year. Inflation's at 70 percent.
17:24Dave McCormick:The currency's depreciated by 30 or 40 percent. There's huge lines for fuel. The economic measures are working. And what's happening now is the tightening of the noose with this new proposed batch of sanctions, which are, of course, secondary sanctions. So it's now putting additional pressure from all the potential trading partners. I talked to the secretary yesterday. And, you know, those conversations with the president and the Treasury secretary among all of the trading partners are underway. And I think there's they're going to have a lot of success of further tightening the noose. And this is just one of the many ways we need to put pressure on Iran.
18:03Jason Wynn:Well, speak to this also given your role in Treasury in the past. And I think your understanding of China, we were having a discussion just in the last hour, though, ultimately about China being the the major chess piece in this story as it relates to what the Treasury secretary wants to do. And there's a view that either it's going to be a bluff or if he actually pushes forward with it in a meaningful way, that there could be some form of either economic or other retaliation from China. And are we prepared prepared for that? And I'm curious what you tell your constituents about that.
18:43Dave McCormick:Well, I don't I don't share that view that I that I heard earlier about there's it's one or the other. I think that, listen, the Chinese are always difficult to deal with. But what we have here is a lot of alignment of interest in terms of the Strait of Hormuz. Forty to 50 percent of of the oil and natural gas that supports China goes through the Strait of Hormuz. They're the beneficiary of of Iran's oil, which is which is part of the problem here. But this this war with Iran is is an added burden on an already weak Chinese economy. So I know that those discussions are underway. The Treasury secretary told me as much.
19:25Dave McCormick:And listen, this is not going to be this is not going to be easy. But my guess is we're going to find a way for China to be a better participant in terms of putting additional pressure on Iran. And I don't think it's a zero sum in the way that your previous guest described it.
19:42Jason Wynn:But maybe the bigger question, I think, is what do you tell your constituents just about the length of this of this war, how it ends, how quickly it ends? Clearly, the popularity of it is is quite low. And we're going to get into a conversation about the midterms. But there's a big question about how it's going to affect or how it is affecting the economy, but also how it may affect the midterms.
20:04Dave McCormick:Well, you know, from the very first day, I think President Trump's view that we had to make sure Iran didn't have a nuclear weapon was a clear objective that most of the people that I met in Pennsylvania agree with. And let me just ask you a question. Does anybody think that Iran wasn't going to have a nuclear weapon and the capacity to potentially deliver it under Trump's administration? I think it's clear that that was the path we were on. And so this action, as difficult as it is, is very necessary. There's no doubt it's having an economic impact. The folks in Pennsylvania are paying about$415 a gallon for gas.
20:44Dave McCormick:And if you're a working family making, you know,$50 ,000 a year, that's a lot. So they feel that pressure. But I think they also see the broader goal. And that's also why I think some combination of the tools, both military and economic, to put pressure on Iran is the right path. So to the folks in Pennsylvania, I say, listen, based on the last 18 months, you're much better off economically than you were under the Biden administration. There's no doubt we still have work to do on energy prices. We still have some work to do on health care and housing prices. But you are better off and you're going to continue to be better off as long as we continue to do the things that we're doing on permitting reform and and energy dominance and and bringing jobs back to Pennsylvania and back to America.
21:34Jason Wynn:When you when you think about the midterms more broadly across the country, there seems to be, you know, you're seeing the DSA on one side. And I can't tell whether that is actually going to be better for the Republicans on the other side, because people think that that's too too far left on one end. Or you think something else is happening. We were talking to Mick Mulvaney just last week. And I espouse that view, by the way, that this would actually be good for Republicans. And he said not so fast. There was a period of time where people thought that actually President Trump's ascension before he was the president would actually be beneficial to Democrats and clearly was not.
22:17Dave McCormick:Well, first, first, I think we need to tell our story in terms of of the great things that have happened over the last 18 months. I just mentioned some of them. Pennsylvanians and Americans have more money in their pocket based on the policies that we put in place. The Working Families Tax Cut Act has the accelerated depreciation for small businesses, the no tax on tips. So they are economically better off, even though we do have this uptick in inflation. They still have more money in their pocket than they did. That's number one. Two, I don't think we're reinforcing some of the incredible things that happened.
22:50Dave McCormick:I ran and I think won in part by saying we have to stop the flow of fentanyl into places like Pennsylvania, where we lost 4000 people in Pennsylvania in the last year, the Biden administration, 1600 in the first year of the Trump administration. This is a 60 percent decline. Did you know those numbers, Andrew? My guess is no. And so we need to go out and tell that story. But there's also no doubt that that we now have a an emerging Democratic Party. That's not an extreme. It's it's becoming the mainstream that is that is anti capitalism, anti business. It's anti law enforcement, anti military and it's anti American.
23:29Dave McCormick:This isn't this isn't some political commentary. Just listen to what these candidates are saying. And these candidates are getting the support. El Saeed and others are getting the support from the mainstream of the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is moving to the left. And so, yes, I do think when we show the contrast for the policies that we're putting in place for working families compared to this radicalism that we're seeing on the left, I think that's also a very powerful part of the story.
23:58Jason Wynn:I have a personal political calculus question for you. You may know where this is going, because one of the things that's been fascinating, I just was reading about it, I think, yesterday, was this poll in your own state that showed that Senator John Fetterman, who you've been, I think, great pals with, this is one of the great examples of bipartisanship in the Senate. You've done events together and the like, that now people in the state are saying that he's become so he's now so popular in some cases, he's now more popular and viewed more warmly than than you are. By Republican. By Republicans.
24:39Jason Wynn:Well, he is. That's the most important part of the sentence. By Republicans.
24:42Dave McCormick:Yeah. No, I like to say that that, you know, I may be the best dressed senator from Pennsylvania, but he's he's the most popular. And I think he I think he's popular for good reason. First of all, he is has incredible name. I do. He is the best known senator in the country in terms of overall name ID. And he does have great support across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. He has good support among Republicans, not because he agrees with Republicans on most things. He votes 90 plus percent of the time with the Democrats. He is. He will tell you he's he's a Democrat, but he is willing to stand up to this radical fringe element.
25:18Dave McCormick:He's willing to fight for for jobs. He's willing to fight for a secure border. He's willing to fight against this socialism that's that's emerging.
25:28Jason Wynn:Senator, the contrast with the rest of those feckless moderates, supposed moderates, that's what does it. Not one other, not one other one has the the the intestinal fortitude to say the most obvious things about Israel or whatever. I was going to make the joke that, yeah, sewing some great bipartisanship with Senator Fetterman. He's on the right. McCormick's on. That doesn't really work. That doesn't really work. That's what it is. Yeah.
26:02Dave McCormick:No, he's he's he's courageous. And, you know, I talk to him regularly.
26:05Jason Wynn:Why is it courageous to say that I don't I don't I don't think that there's genocide or I mean, no, no, it's courageous.
26:13Dave McCormick:It's courageous because he takes such terrible abuse from the radicals in his party. It was rhetorical. Rhetorical-wise. Senator, I have a question. Oh, yes, sir. Go ahead. I was just going to say, I talk to him regularly. He never starts any discussion with what's best for Democrats or my party. He always starts, and I try to do the same, what's best for Pennsylvania. That's why we've, I think, had such success together. And listen, when I'm walking through airports or wherever, the people the thing people come up to me and say the most, you know, this summit or that summit or the things we've done, they don't talk about that.
26:51Dave McCormick:They talk about, hey, listen, I really appreciate what you and Fetterman are doing. You know, we know you have lots of disagreements, but you're always working for Pennsylvania. I think that's what most Americans want these days.
27:01Jason Wynn:OK, so I got one final one. Let's see how courageous you are. No, I want you to weigh in on this because you also you live through the financial crisis in the middle of working at Treasury. So, you know, lots in that space. And then obviously ran Bridgewater. We've been talking all week about the Stan Druckenmiller op ed, who was one of the mentors to Scott Besson as it relates to this buyback plan that he's put in place. And at the same time that Kevin Warsh, who Stan also worked with, is going to be speaking in Jackson Hole tomorrow. So I want to know where you land on that move.
27:39Dave McCormick:Well, I think the way this is playing out in the media where there's just some big conflict, I don't think that's the case. Listen, the Treasury Secretary, again, I just spoke with him recently, made a decision to intervene or propose to intervene in a way in the Treasury markets, which has had a modest effect on the long end of the curve, which was the desired effect. It's also to rebalance the portfolio. But but but make no mistake, I think and I think of the sector here, he would agree as well that what we're seeing in terms of interest rates is a is a the the impact of some very fundamental forces.
28:16Dave McCormick:And those forces are strong nominal growth. Those forces are are growing deficits, 40 trillion dollars in debt. We we literally have to do something about that. We've started to make progress on that on the margin. But we have to do something. And I say we, I mean Congress. And that's something that we haven't fundamentally addressed. We see demand for some of these big hyperscaler debt issuances, which is drawing some demand away from the Treasury.
28:45Jason Wynn:One of the arguments that was fascinating that Stan made in that op ed was that both he doesn't believe it's a good idea to try to artificially manipulate the price of Treasuries this way. But also that by doing so, potentially, it lets people like yourself and everybody in Washington off the hook, at least temporarily, for actually trying to make some of the harder decisions about what needs to happen to reduce the debt.
29:11Dave McCormick:I agree with Stan in that we can't let ourselves off the hook. I don't think the action by the Treasury did much to do that. But we are on the hook. And ultimately, we're going to need to make a number of choices that continue to stimulate and grow our economy. I mean, what's happening in our economy in terms of capital investment you guys are talking about this morning. It is unbelievable. I'm seeing it in Pennsylvania. We can't we can't hire enough welders and pipe fitters and electricians to meet this infrastructure demand. But we also have to deal on the cost side. And any time you try to do anything, even on the margin, as we try to do with Medicaid reform and the Working Families Tax Credit Act, just to bend the curve, not not to reduce it, but to bend the curve from six or seven percent annual growth to three percent in line with inflation.
29:55Dave McCormick:you get this massive outpouring of misinformation from from the left. So we're going to have to do something on this. I would agree with you that and agree with Stan that there's more work to be done.
30:07Jason Wynn:It'll make it interesting tomorrow, Senator, on how Chair Warsh approaches this, because one of his criticisms and drugs and others of the Powell Fed was that they enabled all the spending by the Biden administration and we're part and parcel to, yeah, just go for it with, you know, the big, beautiful, not that one, the IRA, which was even a funnier name. And what does Kevin Warsh not allowing Congress or the government to go crazy, what does that look like? That looks like tighter money to me, which seems like is very difficult for him to go with that as well. So I don't know how he contrasts himself with the action of the of the Powell Fed in this environment with a president, obviously, who wants who wants lower rates.
31:00Jason Wynn:I would not want that job. That's a maybe I wouldn't say anything either in terms of guidance or what we're going to do. I might be pretty I'd go back to the Greenspan strategic ambiguity.
31:12Dave McCormick:Well, he's you know, he's got a tough hand to play, but he's the right guy to play it. There's there's no one more capable or prepared for this moment. But this moment has some unique dynamics. So the unique dynamics of this incredible investment, which is going to yield enormous impact on productivity, which is something he's got to factor in. We're in the middle of conflict in the Middle East and what we see in the energy markets, which he's going to have to factor in. And and listen, he's been very clear. One of the things he said very clearly is that we have to stop the Fed's intervention through QE and be much less interventionist oriented.
31:50Dave McCormick:And and so he's got a number of things he's going to factor. And I think the way he set up these working groups and he's tried to give himself a little bit of room to build the consensus. And as he said, they're going to have family fights. They had family fights in the last meeting. I think there's going to be more of that. He's got a tough hand to play, but I think he'll play it well. And ultimately, he's made it very clear that price stability is the mandate of the Fed. And I think he'll deliver on his promises.
32:16Jason Wynn:Senator, I want to thank you, as always, and send our best to your better half. Appreciate it. Yes, sir. Thank you. Good to see you.
32:24Kristina Partsinevelos:Up next, despite the higher price of getting away, Chase Travel CEO Jason Wynn says Americans are still prioritizing vacation.
32:32Jason Wynn:Certainly the customer's looking for bargains out there, but they're not willing to sacrifice the trip at this point.
32:39Kristina Partsinevelos:After this break, how the different generations and those in different income strata are trying to get the most out of their travel dollars. Squawk Pod will be right back. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast, or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
33:20Kristina Partsinevelos:Normally in these ads, you'd expect someone like me to ask you to buy something, but I want to ask you to do something different. I'm Dave Farenthold, and I'm a reporter for the New York Times. I'm an investigative reporter, which means that I follow the money, inside of government and outside of government. The point of my job is to find things people are trying to hide. It involves talking to lots of people. It involves looking through lots and lots of documents. And if there weren't folks like me to go beyond the surface to understand who was really shaping what the government does, the public will be left in the dark about what the government's doing with your tax money, what the government's doing to you through regulations and spending.
33:54Kristina Partsinevelos:If you're like me and you think this kind of journalism is important, seek out a news source that does firsthand, fact-based reporting. If that's the New York Times, thank you. If that's your local paper, that's great too, because where you get your information matters.
34:11Dave McCormick:To realize the future America needs, we understand what's needed from us. To face each threat head on, we've earned our place in the fight for our nation's future. We are Marines. We were made for this.
34:30Kristina Partsinevelos:This is Squawk Pod from CNBC.
34:33Jason Wynn:I'm Joe Kernan, along with Andrew Ross Sorkin. I'm going to warn you, 75 on the aura. I got a 75 on my aura for sleep, and Joe's giving me a hard time. No, I'm not giving you a hard time. I'm just trying to make it better. I'm trying to make it easier. Trying to make it easier. I'd like to get an 80. I'd like to be 80 or above. Tomorrow's Friday. We love Fridays. We love Fridays. Go to bed tonight. Join us now to talk travel trends in the state of the consumer as we approach Labor Day weekend and the chance for Americans to squeeze in one last summer trip. Chase Travel, CEO Jason Wynn. I think the most notable thing, Jason, and it's good to see you.
35:11Jason Wynn:And we should point out that you do this. You're the travel booking platform for Chase card members. So you've got, you know, a pretty good sampling of what's going on. Prices are up, but so is travel in demand. Yeah, that's absolutely right. And thanks for, of course, having me on the show. To your point, we have millions of customers coming through the Chase Travel platform. So we've got real insight into the American consumer. And price has been up all year, but the consumer's been remarkably resilient in spite of the price. For Labor Day alone, we're up 17 % in bookings, and that's with prices that are pretty high.
35:51Jason Wynn:I mean, the average hotel rate is over 500. The average air rate is over 1 ,000, which is near double digit for both of those compared to the year prior. As we look at it, some of the interesting trends we're looking at is we hear a lot about the K-shaped economy and the fact that the upper end is kind of carrying the load these days with the lower and middle income classes kind of softening. But the reality is we're not seeing that within the travel data. In fact, internally, we've started to call it the E-shaped economy because each one of the income brackets is performing almost equally well to each other.
36:25Jason Wynn:So we got the K-shaped economy. We've got the Scott Besson C-shaped economy. So that's a new one. So we got the E-shaped economy. We got 23 more letters we can use. I'm not sure whether we're going to use them all. So you point out the affluent traveler is prices are up. They're going to find a way either or. And how does the bottom the bottom part of the E, how do the other people that that have affordability issues, how do they manage to keep flying? Well, I think it's it's a matter of just reallocating the budget. And we see the generational kind of breakdown. You see a lot of the Gen Z's, you know, in that lower income bracket.
37:05Jason Wynn:They're taking, you know, shorter trips, maybe more frequent trips, but a little bit more cost conscious than others. I think the interesting point is no matter the income bracket, everyone's looking for value, trying to get the most out of a buck. And for us at Chase Travel, we've certainly focused on a couple of things. We've launched something called Price Match Guarantee, where if you find a lower hotel rate somewhere else, we'll match that. We also launched Points Boost, which I know Brian Kelly of the Points Guide talked about on this show, where we changed the redemption ratio so your point can go up to twice as far for a particular set of inventory.
37:43Jason Wynn:So, you know, certainly the customer's looking for bargains out there, but they're not willing to sacrifice the trip at this point. So how much are fares up on average year over year, the average fare? And then how does it compare to how much jet fuel is up? I mean, are they making more money? They're doing better, aren't they? The airlines? Well, I mean, you know, the prices are up over 20 percent from where they were last year. With fuel being where it was, I think the airlines still have a deficit. They're hoping that, you know, this premium that they're putting on their airfare allows them to make up for some of that.
38:22Jason Wynn:And in fact, I think Scott Kirby talked about he's expecting in Q4, United will recoup all of the additional fuel expense that they had. But the reality is that, you know, fuel is still having a big impact on their bottom line. And I don't anticipate that even if the fuel price comes down, that you're going to see much change in fares going into 27. The U.S. Open matters, I guess. Labor Day is always big. Yeah, Labor Day is always a big surge for us. New York is our top destination this year. I think you mentioned the U.S. Open, but you also had the Knicks run. We saw a bit of a surge there with folks wanting to come experience New York during the playoffs.
39:01Jason Wynn:The World Cup was a great win for us as we saw more and more consumers want to go out and experience that. So, you know, the top destinations tend to be the same these days, but a couple smaller ones are coming into the picture. in particular internationally. We see BAMF Canada, Lisbon, Edinburgh as three new markets that weren't in our top 20 that now are. Jason, can we just talk, trying to be like a points ninja because you know I'm a news you can use junkie on this stuff and I love a deal. I love a deal. So here's my question. When you travel using one of the Chase Sapphire cards or the the other things.
39:40Jason Wynn:People do a host of things. Some people just go buy the airplane ticket on their card on a website independently of your site or something else. Others go do it through Chase Travel. I sometimes do that myself, but then oftentimes find that the fee for the plane ticket is actually higher than the plane ticket that I get on the website. And then the last piece is using points themselves, whether you're really better off just trying to transfer them out of the network onto one of the airlines, where I think you typically get a better deal than trying to use the points on your own website. What do you think?
40:22Jason Wynn:Well, I think there's a little bit of misconceptions here. First of all, we have some great point transfer partners and make that available to our cardholders as part of the value proposition of the card. I mean, I'm biased, but I would argue that the value proposition of booking through Chase Travel or the other card-related travel platforms is the best bang for the buck. That is where you're going to get the most value. If you're paying with cash, for us, our Chase Sapphire Reserve customers get 8X. So, they're buying their trip, but they're also earning towards their next trip. We have things like Points Boost, as I mentioned.
40:56Jason Wynn:And so, I think there's real value in there. Pricing is dynamic, right? And so we're always working and making sure that we're looking at all other channels and making sure we're working with our suppliers to remain competitive. But that's an ongoing thing that we have to keep focused on. Okay. All right. We got to go, Jason. Appreciate it. Thank you.
41:18Kristina Partsinevelos:And that's SquawkPod for today. Thank you for tuning in. SquawkBox is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin every weekday morning on CMDC starting at 6 a.m. Eastern. To get the buzziest conversations and the hottest takes from our three-hour TV show right into your ears, follow Squawk Pod wherever you're listening now. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow. Have a great day.
41:43Jason Wynn:We are clear. Thanks, guys.
41:54Kristina Partsinevelos:The wrongs we must right.
41:57Dave McCormick:The fights we must win. The future we must secure together for our nation. This is what's in front of us. This determines what's next for all of us. We are Marines. We were made for this.
From the publisher
Nvidia reported a blowout quarter, issuing optimistic revenue guidance that’s pushing the stock higher. CNBC’s Kristina Partsinevelos discusses CEO Jensen Huang’s comments after the report and the response on Wall Street. Senator Dave Mccormick (R-PA) discusses inflationary pressures on Americans in his own state, particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Iran. Ahead of the midterms, Sen. McCormick discusses the future of Democrats, Republicans, and bipartisanship. Amid summer travel, CEO of Chase Travel Jason Wynn sees Americans sticking to their vacationing plans despite cost pressures. He calls it an “E-shaped economy.”
Kristina Partinevelos - 02:41
Sen. Dave McCormick - 15:53
Jason Wynn - 34:44
In this episode:
Dave McCormick, @SenMcCormickPA
Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk
Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin
Kristina Partsinevelos, @KristinaParts
Cameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY
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