SpaceX Bull Ron Baron & Vice President JD Vance 6/15/26

21:58Morgan headquarters. By the way, J.P. Morgan, that's the most incredible building I've ever been in my life. And so I was listening to the interview and the last question was, so Elon, every time I talk with you, I learned something. Every time I talk with you, I learn something. And so, you know, what do you think about this? And he says, well, I'm hoping that some future AI will say, not a bad job for human. And so his goal is not the way other people's goals are outlined. And so when he's talking about what he's done so far, that's just the beginning. And so when I think about Starlink, and Starlink is, if you want to have some kind of broad distribution of wealth, if you want to have equal wealth, then people have to be smart.

22:49How do you get smart? You have to have the internet. How do you have the internet? When you live in the jungle, or you live in the desert, or you're flying, or you're in the ocean, how do you do that? And so what he's done is when he's creating, this is the internet for the entire planet. Is that what excites you most about SpaceX? What is the aspect that gets you most fired up? It's just everything. Starlink is one. The compute AI is another. Making these chips less expensively than other people can make them and use them. The fact that you have this AI with Anthrop. So his idea behind the AI, behind the large language models, behind Anthropic and ChatGBT, who, by the way, both of those people who found those companies, he hired them.

23:36He hired them and trained them. And then Google, Gemini. So when I think about those entities, and we have Brock inside. So what Elon said was, gee, the problem that we were going to have here, LLMs, large-time models, that's software. You can do that. Other people can do that. It's hard, but you can do it. But other people can't do the rockets and can't do the giant rockets. And so when I think about what is on his mind, he says, okay, other people can do that. What can't they do? And what they can't do is they can't make compute. He's got the biggest compute in the world, cohesive compute down in Memphis.

24:16And now what he does is he says, I'm going to spend my effort right now on getting compute, which is what the barrier to this growth of these artificial intelligence LLMs is, I'll build a compute, and people will, that will put me ahead, that will make me win. Well, and it's almost a fight against the commoditization of any of these large language models down the road, too. Yeah, so they're all going to get commoditized. Yes. It puts you in a different, it puts him in a different perspective, in a different place. There is this giant market, though. There's trillions, you know, 20 trillion, 25 trillion.

24:51Yeah. So but what what he's going to have is he's going to have this compute that other people need. So Anthropic, for example, has just gone from nine billion dollars of annualized revenues in December to 45 billion now for a three or four year old company. And they're going to be public for eight or nine hundred billion dollars. Right. And they're paying, what is it, one and a quarter? One and a quarter a month. Billion dollars a month. Fifteen billion dollars a year. Right. They're paying. So what they do is. SpaceX for the use of the computing power. So they go, he's a good guy. Good guy. Dario Hamote.

25:27He's under pressure from the U.S. government, the administration at this point. Well, the government has a right to be concerned when you develop something that can crack the code of everyone and find out where this weakness is and flaws. You've got to make sure that this doesn't get into the wrong hands. But to go back to what we have with this compute, Then what happens is he comes to Anthropic, comes to Elon. Are you an investor in Anthropic now? No. No. I wish I was. Will you be when they go public? I don't know. I haven't been to visit him yet. I've been trying to arrange it. One of the guys who works with me, one of his friends, best friends, went to go work for him.

26:06And we're supposed to go visit for maybe a month already. I haven't done it yet, but I will soon. But we're back. Where they are is that so he comes to Elon and says, I'm short of compute. I need compute. I can't satisfy my buyers, my customers, if I don't have enough compute, which is what Elon's been saying. He computes the barrier. And so he says, OK, I'll rent you compute for six months or nine months or a year until I need it for myself, for my grok. So I would do that. And he rents it to him for$1.25 billion a month,$15 billion a year. What did that compute cost in Memphis? It cost him somewhere, my guess is,$12 to$15 billion.

26:51So it cost him$12 to$15 billion. He's renting out for$15 billion a year. So he'll make it back in a year. Right, for one. Yeah.

26:59JD Vance:Because he had the energy. Because Elon Musk saw the demand, again, not whatever, but all AI stories are just energy stories, I think, in disguise. And Elon saw that demand coming, acquired that in the Memphis area, and now others are willing to pay for it. He bought a vacuum cleaner factory for an 800 ,000 square foot factory. He buys it. When other people buy data centers, they buy data centers that pay a lot for them. Our guy buys just a big empty building. And when you build something, and he built it, other people take two and three and four years to build it. It takes$40 or$50 billion. We built this in 122 days, the biggest one that was ever built by four times.

27:45And then on top of that, doubles it again in 95 days. I mean, how does anyone do that? But that's the, so he's a builder, builds stuff. And that is your, your faith is in Elon Musk, the man, and has been for a very long time. I think you've said that there's never going to be another opportunity like this because there'll never be another man like this. Not in my lifetime. And so people say to me all the time, well, so tell me about the next Elon Musk and the next SpaceX. Tell me about the next. There is no next. There's one. That's it. It's a one. And, you know, this is a historic person. And the things that he does, I mean, when you, okay, so New York, we win the championship, right?

28:27and in Nix. And people go crazy. And they light school buses on fire and there's 63 stabbings and 16 shootings. Were there? I didn't know these stabbings. My guy was telling me this. He's a former policeman. Okay. And I have all these numbers. And New York is this dangerous place. And so how come it's so dangerous that here he does it from Texas. He talks to us from Texas. So something's really crazy in the world where you have to worry about safety the way you do. Well, let me ask you about the billion dollars in SpaceX shares that you acquired on Friday. How much did you ask for? And is this money that was kind of plowed into the funds because people were trying to get access to SpaceX?

29:15I asked for a billion and I got a bill and they said, Ron, there's two different kinds of orders here. There's your orders and everyone else's orders. And so, you know, how much do you want? And I said, I want a billion. And then Ishe Levin, who is the analyst who, and that billion. Is that because you've been a supporter and involved for so long that they looked at your orders first? I didn't want to get diluted. So we own one and a quarter percent of SpaceX. They're doing$70 billion. I wanted a billion dollars to keep our percentage the same. and I think the reason, it's all about trust and about objectives and about, so here people know I'm an investor in a business.

30:01I'm not buying and selling, trading and doing things. Everyone, well, the stock's up 4%, great. But I think that what's now being valued for$2 trillion, I think is going to be valued in 10 years. 10 years,$20 trillion,$30 trillion. $40 trillion. And people at the company think I'm low. So basically, that's what I think is going to happen in 10 years. And there's a...

30:28JD Vance:Is that going to be new money they create then, Ron? Or is that going to be taken from other companies? New money. You're creating growth. So normally, our economy doubles roughly every 10 years. And what he thinks is by the innovations and the work that he's doing, he's going to make the economies grow 10 times in 10 years, not double. That's what he thinks is going to happen. So that leads to GDP growth. Sustainable abundance. That's his new code. Sustainable abundance, 10 times in 10 years. I think your assets under management were about 10.75 % of total were invested in SpaceX. Is that still - That's personal.

31:06That's your personal. I thought it was 10.7. How much - So 10.75 % of the assets we manage, which is 75 billion, is mine. And then on top of that we have invested in SpaceX. It's our largest holding now. It's now about$24,$25 billion. And our cost is about$2 billion, plus the billion we just spent.

31:29JD Vance:It's about a third of the Partners Fund, right? About 30%, 29%. And about 25 % of your other fund? It's 30 % of the Barron Asset Fund, almost 30 % of the Barron Partners Fund, 25 % of the Barron Focus Growth Fund. And Tesla is what on top of that? Tesla is around 20%. So over half your fund is Elon Musk. Right. Is that a high cost? Are you worried about, or should investors be concerned that a fund has 50 % in one person? Of course.

32:06So when you get rich, when you are rich, you have to manage your money differently than when you're trying to get rich. I'm still trying to get rich.

32:19So concentration is the positive. Well, concentration is the positive, but it entails risk.

32:25JD Vance:There's a lot of politicians watch this show, Ron, and there's been a lot of cries for the wealth tax. I'm not pro or con the wealth tax, but Europe tried it. They largely abandoned it. This is your world, Robert Frank, because the cost of administrating it. Everyone's like, well, if we just tax so-and-so, we'll get all this money for all this stuff that we need. It's not really how it works. Just quickly, can you explain the difference? because you're a very rich guy, a difference between wealth and income and how the IRS would look at that. I don't understand how you're going to figure out what anything is worth.

32:55Normally, income is when you sell something. You buy something and sell it, and then you have a capital gain or a loss. And if stocks go up and down, how do you tax wealth in a given year? And plus, that's an anti-tax. Where do you think jobs come from? They come from people investing in their businesses over and over again and foregoing profits to become larger businesses. One of the things that was important to me at Barron Capital is that I didn't want, at some point, people to say, who work at Barron Capital, there's 240 people. and I didn't want them to say at some point, well, gee, look how successful David and Michael have been, my sons, and their children, and how come, because of me, is how they're able to do that.

33:51How come? And so what I want to do is make sure that everyone at Barron Capital participates in the success of something like SpaceX, for example. And so what I did is that for, I think, 160 or 170 people who were below a breakpoint that I regarded as a high level but still $600 ,000, I said, if anyone is below that level and it's 160 people maybe, then what I did is every time we did some kind of an offering for the past three or four years or five years, I put$12 ,000. the piece into a partnership that retains them and also appreciates with how well SpaceX has done. And those are now worth, if you've been there for four years,$800 ,000.

34:43And I told each one, and I told everyone that you're all going to get to be millionaires if I'm right, if we're right. And so this is still just the beginning of what's going to happen to everyone who works there. So it's not just the SpaceX millionaires we're talking about at this point. It's the Baron Capital millionaires who have kind of profited along the same way. Everyone. Receptionists, young lawyers, traders, the cleaning lady. Everyone. That's great. That was my idea. But let me do a couple of things about value. I still have the camera. So Starlink. So Starlink, what I think is going to happen in 10 years is that, as I said, it's going to be the internet for the entire planet.

35:33When people hook into you and say, are you hooking? You're the internet. This is the internet. And so basically, they were going to go from 10 ,000 satellites to 20 ,000. They're now going to 100 ,000 because the demand for the services for data is so strong. So it's now going to be 100 ,000. And I think that in 10 years, the revenues will go from$13 or$14 billion from Starlink to about a trillion. So I think there'll be a trillion dollars in revenues in 10 years and about$700 or$800 billion of EBITDA. And that's going to be worth somewhere around$14 trillion. $14 trillion. The whole company is now valued for$2 trillion.

36:15That is just Starlink. So basically, you're going to make seven times your money just for Starlink. Then in addition to that, you have, and that's still an immature business. Then you have compute AI. That's data centers in space. Man, this is so cool. If you want to have AI, you have to have data centers. Data says you can't build on Earth anymore, on our planet anymore, on the United States anymore, without political disruption. Right. Right. Nobody wants it in their backyard. Right. How soon do you think we get to the point where we have data centers in space? 27. You think 2027? That's a lot sooner than most people think.

36:56And then I think over the next three years, you're going to have, describing to you, the 10 ,000 to 20 ,000 satellites that you're going to have for Starlink. They're now going to be 100 ,000. This is going to be a million satellites. A million. If we aren't and don't have data centers. Yeah. If we don't have data centers.

37:16JD Vance:rings around the earth. They're going to go out on the earth. They're going to see these rings. What's that? Debris? Comets? No, no. Even more amazing is he actually thinks he's going to do a million a year at some point. But I mean, a million satellites. But 2027 is long before most people think it's going to happen. They're thinking more five, six years down the road. Is that a problem? That's what I was going to say. How does this tie in? Does it change your own thesis if we're not there by 2027? No. Okay. He says, I'm often, you know, I accomplish the impossible often not on time but I accomplish it so Gwen Shotwell was telling me that when he started talking about bringing rockets back and landing them on earth again where is he going to land them?

38:02He wanted to land them on a barge in the ocean bringing it back shooting it around, coming back and landing on a barge in the ocean how is that possible? just every single thing he thinks about other people and it all ties together anyway it's compute AI is that we're gonna put these data centers in space you're not gonna have any cost for electricity because you got the Sun and not gonna have any cost for cooling because you got space and those are the two biggest cold out there and then in addition to that cold and dark right bring a flashlight so so it's really it's it's not a friendly environment Would you ever want to live in space, on Mars, on the moon?

38:41I like East Hampton. I'm not.

38:47JD Vance:Which one takes longer to get to on a Friday afternoon? Depends on how you get there. Well said. So that one, when I was describing to you a trillion dollars in revenues for Starlink, I think multiple trillions, multiple trillions for a compute AI in space. Data is in multiple trillions, 70, 80 percent profit margins. That's business number two. Then number three, he goes to TSMC and Samsung and says, you know, I need 50 times as many chips as you're now producing for the entire world. 50 times as many. And so TSMC says, you know, that's great, Elon, but we can't do that. We have a really good, profitable business, growing, we can't do that.

39:36And then he goes to Samsung, same thing, we can't do that, it's too much. And so Elon says, okay, I'll do it myself. So then he partners up with Intel, and he's going to invest$55 billion, and then ultimately going to be$100 billion in total. But what we're going to do is we're going to have this opportunity for making chips. So right now we buy chips from NVIDIA. And we buy chips from NVIDIA. We use, they make an 80 % profit margin, and we use roughly 6 % of the content on those chips. 80 % margin. So he thinks that with his innovations in making things, he's great at making stuff. So with his innovations, he thinks he'll be able to make things 99 % less expensively instead of that they're a chip made for everyone, a chip only made for a couple purposes, like robo cars, like robots and like data centers.

40:29That's all we need. And so we only need a couple of purposes, not everything. And so we're going to do that. And we're going to have not so much to do it at lower cost. But what we need is we need way more than the industry is willing to provide us. And what that means is that we can't grow as fast as we want unless we have these chips. And the necessity is always the mother of all invention. And that's what Elon has always tackled. Ron, we are out of time. The last thing I would do is the biggest thing of all, that's the Anthropic and the ChatGVT and the Gemini. That is the AI. And that's something that they describe in their prospectus.

41:06Read this prospectus. And it's something like$25 trillion a year of annual revenues they're addressing with enormous profit margins. And what they can do, they're emulating human behavior. and what they could do is they're replacing 20 and 25 dollar an hour people with 25 cents an hour chips and the people who are replacing we're going to get them other jobs and get them other training we're still hiring more people at spacex and at tesla than we did before we're having a hard time hiring as many as we want but we do get for i guess they hire between these two companies They probably hire 30 ,000 people a year.

41:43They get 4 million applicants for 30 ,000 jobs a year. Anyway, thank you for having me on again. Thank you for coming in and congratulations on a very successful IPO and what you all have seen. We appreciate your time, Ron, and we look forward to talking to you again soon. Thanks. Thank you.

42:01JD Vance:Coming up on Squawk Pod, the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a peace deal to be signed this Friday. Vice President J.D. Vance joins us with the details. The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process. We say to the Iranians, you are welcome to have access to an unsanctioned economy. You're welcome to be re-invited into the world economy, but only if you honor the commitments that you make in this disagreement.

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44:06This is Squawk Pod. You're watching Squawk Box on CNBC. I'm Becky Quick along with Brian Sullivan and Robert Frank. Joe and Andrew are out today. The United States and Iran reaching a peace deal with the agreement set to be signed on Friday. Joining us right now to talk more about it is Vice President J.D. Vance. And Mr. Vice President, thank you for being with us this morning. I think there's still a lot of confusion about what exactly is in this deal. Can you lay out the terms for us?

44:35JD Vance:First of all, good morning, everybody. Thanks for having us. So first of all, I think it's a great day for the American people because what this deal does fundamentally is two things. It immediately reopens the Straits of Hormuz. We're already seeing in the past 24 hours more traffic flow. You see oil prices coming down. But you also have the long-term commitment that Iran will never develop or procure a nuclear weapon. Those are two very big wins for the American people. I think the important thing to understand is that the agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process.

45:04JD Vance:We say to the Iranians, you are welcome to have access to an unsanctioned economy. You're welcome to be re-invited into the world economy, but only if you honor the commitments that you make in this agreement. So that's the leverage point and simultaneously the enforcement mechanism we have over their nuclear program. And if you step back, the last point that I'd make about this is that we have affirmatively and comprehensively destroyed their nuclear program from what we've done over the last year and a half in the Trump administration. What this agreement does is say to the Iranians that you don't have access to the money to rebuild that nuclear program.

45:39JD Vance:But if you're willing to give up that program long term, if you're willing to accept the inspections and verification regime that's necessary to give us the confidence you're never going to have a nuclear weapon, then we want you to be a prosperous country and we will re-invite you into the community of nations. And that's fundamentally the two-step process, the choice the Iranians have to make. do they want access to the world economy? If so, they're going to have to give up the long-term nuclear ambition. If they don't want access to the world economy and they don't give up that ambition, they're never going to have the resources to rebuild it from where it is today.

46:15JD Vance:So it's a big win for the American people. And I think the Iranians fundamentally have a good choice here in front of them, whether to be a normal country or whether to be a country that continues to be, to pursue a nuclear weapon, which they now have no capacity to do. Okay, sir, let me just make sure I understand this, though. This is 60 days that they will have to kind of discuss and debate the issues surrounding the nuclear question. But for now, they are saying that they will reopen the strait. The United States is saying it will take down its blockade at the same time, that there will be free passage, that no one will have to pay anything to go back and forth through this.

46:52the Iranians, I think, have suggested that this is just for the next 60 days. Do you get the sense that this is a more permanent situation where the strait will be reopened even beyond that 60-day period?

47:04JD Vance:Well, our expectation is that the strait is going to be opened in a toll-free way for the long term, and that's the sort of thing that we're going to figure out in these technical negotiations. You know, there are a lot of very important details to figure out that we're actually going to sit at the table and discuss together and figure out a path forward on these details. For example, they've committed to destroy and dispose of their stockpile of highly enriched material. That's the highly enriched uranium that they accumulated over the Obama administration and over the Biden administration. And what we've said is, OK, let's talk about how exactly we're going to do that.

47:37JD Vance:They want access to an unsanctioned economy. We've talked about, OK, we're open to that, but that would require a long term commitment to the inspection and verification regime that I just talked about. So a lot of these details are going to be figured out during those 60-day talks. We feel quite confident that we're in a strong position here. Fundamentally, we have the leverage. We have the diplomatic, economic, and military leverage. But we also are extending an open hand to the Iranians and saying, if you guys negotiate in good faith and you make that long-term commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, then we are going to make sure that your country is successful.

48:12JD Vance:If, however, you refuse to meet us halfway, then we're going to continue to apply the pressure that we've seen build up economically in particular. And that's going to be bad for them. And fundamentally, it's going to be bad for the region. So we hope they make the right choice. We feel pretty confident about where we are. And we're going to just sit down and talk with them and see where they're willing to concede, where they're willing to make concessions and make some progress from there. Who's going to be signing this agreement on Friday from the United States and from the Iranian side of things?

48:42because there's been a lot of questions about who's in charge in Iran and whether when we're talking to someone, whether they represent all of those parties.

48:50JD Vance:Well, one of the interesting things about what's happened just over the last few months is that our relationship with Iran has fundamentally transformed. You hear the president talk about the fact that we're dealing with a totally different group of people. That's absolutely true. If you go back to the Obama administration, we never had the direct line really over the past 47 years. we've never had this level of direct connection where the people at the highest levels of the United States government are talking to the people at the highest levels of the Iranian government. We expect the negotiating team from the Iranian side is going to be the Speaker of the House, Ghalibov, and also the Foreign Minister, Arachi, along with a number of security officials and people who represent the different constituencies within their country.

49:32JD Vance:But we actually see, This is a very interesting thing about these negotiations is you see people, both the hardliners, but also the more political people saying our relationship with the United States over the past 47 years has been a mistake. Let's turn over a new leaf. We're, of course, going to verify that they actually mean it. But if they're willing to turn over a new leaf, the president of the United States has said we want them to be a successful country. And that's what we're aiming to negotiate towards. Mr. Vice President, Brian Sullivan, thank you again for coming on the program. I want to follow up with that because I think it's incredibly important what you just said, that if Mohamed Galibaugh, who is seen as a more hardliner, is at the table, that would be construed as an even better symbol, a better sign of where this negotiation may go.

50:19JD Vance:Would you agree with that, that getting somebody like Mohamed Galibaugh, the Speaker of the House who is seen as more of a hardliner internally, would be viewed as the best possible outcome here, rather than one of the more moderates that might be seen as a little more pro-White House, and yet you still might have this division and factions inside of Iran? Well, I think the best outcome is a good deal for the American people, which we have. Fundamentally, we're dealing with everybody in the Iranian system. You know, there's the IRGC, the sort of regime hardliners, the military side. There's the political leadership.

50:53JD Vance:And within the political leadership, you have people who are more hardline and less hardline. We expect to have a full spectrum of representatives at the negotiation on Friday. Again, we've been talking to these people, sometimes indirectly, but sometimes directly. And that's what's fundamentally changed under the president's leadership. We are now speaking directly to the Iranian system. We have some good relationships there. So this is going to be a successful negotiation because, you know, we're not passing messages through various back channels anymore. We're actually talking to them. And when you talk to them, you figure out what's real, what's fake.

51:28JD Vance:What are they serious about? What are they not serious about? And the thing I'd add to that is we fundamentally have all the cards here. We don't have to give the Iranians anything if they don't make the commitments that we want long term on the nuclear program. And even if we just stopped here, what would be true? Their military is destroyed. The Straits of Hormuz are open. Their nuclear program has been destroyed. And we have incredible economic leverage over them that we didn't have a year and a half ago. So we've got a lot of leverage here. But we also have the president saying to them, we're extending an open hand.

52:02JD Vance:If you guys want to meet us, if you guys want to change your relationship with the United States, we will change our relationship with Iran. That's the offer. And we're going to have to see whether they they meet us there. Mr. Vice President, what do you do about Israel? Both the right and the left in Israel has been not thrilled with this deal. They've called it a bad deal. Do you get them in line, and how do you handle them when it comes to Lebanon? Because they're still there at the moment. Well, first of all, I think there are elements within Israel that like the deal quite a bit, and I also think there's been some misreporting about the deal.

52:32JD Vance:One of the interesting things about the Iranian state media is that sometimes you'll have hardline elements really aiming at a domestic audience trying to sell the deal, and in some ways, honestly, misrepresent the deal. And then sometimes you'll see certain elements in the Israeli media pick that up and run with it. I think when people see this deal, we hope to release the text this week, they're gonna realize that this is gonna make the whole region safer. And this is another way in which this is a transformative agreement. If you go back to, for example, the Obama JCPOA, what did we see? The entire Gulf Coast coalition hated that deal because they felt like it empowered Iran to be a bad actor.

53:11JD Vance:What is the Gulf Coast coalition saying about President Trump's peace deal? That they love it because they see it as an opportunity to build and create a new Middle East, not just for the next few years, but for the next generation. So I think that new Middle East, certainly Israel is going to have a seat at the table. We think this is going to be great for everybody in the region. But most importantly, we think it's going to be great for the American people. And that's what we're aiming to do. Vice President Vance, thank you very much for joining us this morning. We appreciate your time and the update on where things stand, and we'll be watching.

53:43Thank you.

53:43JD Vance:We'll keep you updated. Talk soon. That's Squawk Pod for today. Thank you for listening and for starting your week with us. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin, weekday mornings on CNBC starting at 6 a.m. Eastern. To get the best parts of that three-hour TV show right into your ears, please follow Squawk Pod wherever you get your podcasts. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow. Have a great day. We are clear. Thanks, guys.

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