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Squawk Pod Episode Summary: The Feud, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (6/6/25)
Episode Overview In this episode of Squawk Pod, a heated public feud between former President Donald Trump and tech mogul Elon Musk is discussed, alongside economic updates and insights from notable guests including House Speaker Mike Johnson. The episode includes analyses of employment numbers, economic implications, and political dynamics within Congress.
Hosts
- Joe Kernen
- Becky Quick
- Andrew Ross Sorkin (absent)
Guests
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana)
- Mike Santoli
- Steve Liesman
- Rick Santelli
- Doug Holtz-Eakin (former CBO Director)
- Saira Malik (Nuveen)
- Kitty Richards (former Treasury official)
Key Topics Discussed
- The Trump-Musk Feud
- Background:
- The feud marks an explosive end to a previously friendly relationship between Trump and Musk, both of whom have significant influence in their respective fields.
- Tensions escalated when Trump criticized Musk's stance on his tax and spending bill, leading to Musk's social media backlash and threats related to government contracts.
- Key Quotes:
- Musk's comment on Trump being on the "Epstein list" stirred further controversy.
- Speaker Johnson emphasized, "It doesn’t need to be personal," urging for a focus on policy rather than personal attacks.
- Impact:
- The feud resulted in a significant drop in Tesla's stock value, illustrating the market's sensitivity to public conflicts involving influential figures.
- Congressional Dynamics
- Speaker Mike Johnson's Position:
- Johnson discussed the internal rifts within the GOP regarding the national deficit and budgeting, asserting the need for a balanced approach to fiscal responsibility.
- He highlighted the ongoing efforts to craft a reconciliation bill while managing varying perspectives within the party.
- Challenges:
- Johnson emphasized the need to navigate the diverse opinions within the Republican caucus to reach consensus on spending and taxation strategies.
- U.S. Employment Report
- Jobs Data:
- The May jobs report indicated a slowdown in hiring, with 139,000 new jobs created, slightly better than expected.
- Notable sectors included healthcare and leisure, which saw growth, countered by declines in manufacturing and retail.
- Market Reactions:
- The episode featured a panel discussion analyzing how the jobs report impacts market sentiment, Federal Reserve policy, and future economic outlook.
- Expert Insights:
- Various panelists discussed how the employment figures might influence the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates, with consensus leaning towards no immediate cuts.
- Economic Outlook
- Panel Discussions:
- Experts debated the implications of tariffs, inflation, and government policies on the economy, suggesting that while immediate job growth may appear steady, underlying uncertainties could signal future challenges.
- Long-Term Predictions:
- The discussion highlighted the potential for slower job growth in the coming months, particularly due to external economic pressures, with concerns about how these factors will play into broader economic performance.
Conclusion This episode of Squawk Pod encapsulates the interplay between political drama and economic realities, showcasing the roles of key figures in navigating these complex narratives. The analysis of employment data, coupled with insights from House Speaker Mike Johnson, provides a multifaceted view of the current state of the economy and its intersection with high-stakes political affairs.
Listening Information
- Tune In: Squawk Box airs weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 AM Eastern.
- Follow: Stay updated by following Squawk Pod on social media and streaming platforms.
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This summary captures key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear overview of the significant topics addressed and the implications for listeners interested in politics and economics.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. One big, beautiful breakup. I don't know. Trump said more and then Elon said you're on the Epstein list. Elon Musk said bring it, basically. The most powerful man and the richest man in a very public clash. And House Speaker Mike Johnson on the sidelines of a feud between two congressional houses on the massive spending and tax cut legislation and in the thick of another. It's not personal. It shouldn't be personal. You know, I don't tell my friend Elon how to build rockets, and I wish he wouldn't argue with me about how to craft legislation and pass it.
0:39The drama on social media and the drama in Congress. Plus... And finally, drumroll, please. U.S. job creation slowed last month, but not as much as we expected. We break down the numbers and what they mean with a whip of CNBC reporters like our pal Rick Santelli and Mike Santoli. I do think it's pretty close to the sweet spot in terms of monthly job gains. And experts from Nuveen's Sarah Malik on the markets. How the Fed going to think about it, it gives them a little bit of breathing room. They don't have to rush to cut rates. To Republican Doug Holtz-Akin. I don't see the Fed cutting anytime soon.
1:15And Democrat Katie Richards. A lot of the uncertainty that's created by the tariffs and other kind of chaotic management of the economy by the Trump administration is only going to start really impacting the labor market on a slower timeline. All that ahead. It is Friday, June 6, 2025. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand Becky by in three, two, one. Cue it, please. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan. Andrew is off today. All three of the major averages were down slightly yesterday, but week to date, all three of them are actually up for the week to date.
2:00So we'll see how things shape up on this Friday morning. Trump had a conversation yesterday with with President Xi Jinping. But, you know, that's way down here on the on the back burner. But intimated that the rare earth and minerals situation, that he had spoken to President Xi about it and that it was going to be handled in some way. I don't know. It was a friendly conversation. It was an hour and a half. I don't know what we can glean from that. But he didn't say, wow, we're never talking again. They plan to talk and meet. Xi invited him to China. and then he invited Xi to the United States.
2:46So there's... De-escalation. Maybe. That's the play for it this morning. On that front. A de-escalation. Last Friday, Elon Musk got a key to the city. Not the city, but he got that beautiful little key and it was all smiles. That was Friday. Today's Friday. So that was... So under a week's time. Under a week's time. Under a week's time. We'll talk about... We'll talk more, but let me tell you what happened. Because you may not have heard. A possible cooling of tensions between President Trump and Elon Musk after a bitter public feud yesterday. Politico reporting that White House aides has scheduled a call between the two men for today.
3:23For his part, Elon Musk responded positively last night to an ex-post from investor Bill Ackman, whose bill is everywhere now. Ackman said Musk and Trump should make peace for the benefit of the country and we're stronger together than apart. with Elon replying to that, you're not wrong. The genesis of yesterday's blow up appeared to be President Trump criticizing Musk's recent attacks on his signature tax and spending bill. And Musk unleashed a barrage of social media posts with one saying, without his help, Trump would have lost last year's election. Later in the afternoon, Trump threatened to cancel Musk's government contracts.
4:02For his part, Musk said that President Trump's tariffs would cause a recession in the second half of the year. And then he answered a post saying, we need a third party and we need to impeach Trump. And then, I don't know, Trump said more. And then Elon said, you're on the Epstein list. And that's - Trump canceled his contracts, his government contracts. And Elon Musk said, bring it, basically. You know, like - Yeah, make my day. Make my day, I think was what he said. And then said he was going to cancel the - It was shocking. I was saddened more than anything. President Trump is very, he hits back hard.
4:41And he's mercurial. And he's kind of, I mean, he's just kind of a badass. I mean, thin-skinned. And for him to look measured. I wonder where you were going with that. Well, for him to look measured yesterday takes something. But you've got the richest guy, the most powerful man in the world, theoretically, or hypothetically, And the richest man in the world. There's no accountability for the richest man in the world. I don't think anyone can say anything to Elon. You saw what he said to David Faber about advertisers. Maybe it was Andrew. Go F yourself. Yeah, go F yourself. So he's used to not having anyone tell him anything.
5:18I don't think I'd take that tack with the president of the United States necessarily. But it also makes me wonder, you know, I've defended Elon a lot. He's got a crazy person. You know, who knows? I don't know drugs. I don't know what goes on. What you said this morning. Well, I said, don't do drugs. Which was pretty happy. I said to someone yesterday, he has to get some bad window pain. No one knows window pain because they didn't live in the 70s. But it was LSD. But bad batches. I mean, that was crazy yesterday. That was. It was unwise, suboptimal, as you said. Suboptimal. That's my word now.
5:56But the Epstein thing. See, I think that is that's reckless. And I don't think he would know who's on that list. I don't think I'd say it if I didn't know. And if he was on that list, I think either Hillary or Biden or when the Democrats were in power, if they knew that, they would have used it. President Trump has done some of his own things where he said things where it's like, what? Oh, that's what I'm saying. To make him look measured is. But I think it's bad to throw someone. If you don't know, to make that allegation is. And I think if it really was, if the list exists and Trump's on it and people had possession of it over the last 12 years, it would be out by now, wouldn't it?
6:38Who knows? I mean, they tried to pee pee tapes. I mean, if he had Epstein concrete. He doesn't help his case by saying things like he might consider P. Diddy. You know what I'm saying? He'd get him off the hook. Speaking of P. P. Diddy. He did. This is a situation where I hope that I. Yeah, let's hope it calms down. And it did seem like that was coming from Elon Musk yesterday. You mentioned the Bill Ackman that he responded to. There was another one with a guy who only had like 134 followers saying, you know, knock it off. Chill out. You guys both need to walk away for a couple of days and come back.
7:13And Elon responded positively to that as well. This call set up for today is is good news. Look, this this took about thirty four billion dollars off of his own net worth. and even more from a quarter of a trillion off of them. SpaceX isn't publicly traded, but that would be the one where you would expect an even bigger impact if the government contracts go away on these things. And while you hope that they can calm things down, because this was unbelievable to watch yesterday, I can't imagine that President Trump is going to forget this, even if he forgives him. He can. This might have gone too far, but in the past, he's it's possible for him to do that.
7:54Whether whether this went. I just don't imagine they will have the same close right. Whether it's a bridge too far. I mean, that's really hard to come back from. But but yes, we we will see where this kind of plays out. Hopefully it'll be a little quieter today. Tesla shares instantly. Yeah, I think it was a quarter of a trillion. Yeah, it was. If you look at it right now, the stock down 17.8 percent for the week to date. That was all based on yesterday. Now, when I looked at this earlier today, it looked like it was indicated to open higher this morning. Yeah, 14 points or something. I was reading something today that suggested that the number of puts on this, the people taking bets on that, exploded yesterday to 4 million contracts.
8:32That's the highest since the 2020 pandemic. Yeah, and here it is this morning. That might all those things. Indicated up. Let's see, it might all need to be covered, right? All those shorts might need. Right, and maybe that's a swing to the downside to have all of those, that expectation. But, man, this was destructive in nature, self-destructive in nature. And nobody. But even if they do reconcile, it just makes you aware how, you know, they're both so impulsive at times. And, you know, you wonder how long would it be a sort of a you'd worry about the truce or the detente. Right. Russ Gerber, a very early backer of Tesla, said he sold some stock yesterday on this because he was concerned about it.
9:19Well, true. And because he thinks the board's not going to do its job and kind of rein Elon in when it comes to being on social media like this. We've seen this arise in the past, but this is obviously the largest and most visible battle on the front. Once again, I was like last Friday when we were played. I was outside, you know, and the sun sort of half asleep and things started happening. And then it just watching the the how it went from. Oh, wow. And one thing I will say, we've talked earlier about this, but. Trump mentioned yesterday, no one knew the inner workings of this bill better than Elon all along.
9:58And he never had a problem with it until this other stuff started happening. And I've said I got my own problems with the bill. You know, it's a great day to have Mike Johnson, the Speaker. The Speaker of the House. I don't know whether he talked directly to Elon. I know they were texting. I think they're supposed to have a phone call last night or today. I was thinking if we couldn't have the president or Elon Musk on the phone, this is the guy I'd like to speak to. Well, all week long we've been talking to Republican senators who have had their issues with the bill and questions about what's going to happen.
10:28Speaker Johnson is the one person who can kind of answer how the House will respond to what the Senate is doing right now. He's pretty. Louisiana is really not the Midwest, but he's got a Midwestern. He's calm, cool and collected. Yesterday he did put out a tweet defending this bill, too. I think he has taken it personally that Elon Musk has come after him and said that he's changed on some of these issues. But again, very measured guy. And, you know, an angry tweet from Mike Johnson doesn't rise to the level of a kind tweet from most of the rest of us. He was defending the bill yesterday. Apparently there's something happening at 8.30, too.
11:05And we have former Fed officials to talk about. But it's a big jobs number or an important jobs number. We'll see how big it is, whether it plays into that ADP report that we saw. Oh, my God. Don't blink. think. Walmart expanding deliveries by drone in the coming year. The company says that it plans to launch the option at 100 stores in Atlanta, Charlotte, Houston, Orlando, Orlando and Tampa. That will make five states, including Arkansas, with drone deliveries. The machines have a range of up to six miles from the store. And so far, believe it or not, some of the most frequently delivered items include, OK, fresh fruit.
11:45I can get that pet food, even though it's kind of heavy, It would seem to have a drone carrying it. Ice cream. It'd be a milkshake. Yeah, by the time you get it to you, it'd be swished around. And eggs. So you've got to have a lot of faith that this is going to come in. And I guess if you are a frequent customer and you do it again, I would love to be able to get some of this stuff delivered to me. I'm a little concerned about all the drone traffic in the air with this stuff. Carrying heavy dog food or something. See, hard-boiled eggs, maybe. Yeah. Hey, it's impressive. If eggs are one of their most often delivered items along with ice cream, it means you must be fast and accurate.
12:24Bro, can you get some cannabis? Do you know whether they drop that off? Whoa. It seems so futuristic. It's kind of amazing. What a world. What a world. Coming up, how many of these, are they going to be everywhere? Like in the Jetsons? Yeah, and Amazon's doing it too. Although Amazon's latest thing is they're not talking about these automatic driving vehicles and a robot gets out and delivers it to you too. Are you going to be like this walking around outside? That's what concerns me. The idea of all these drones carrying heavy stuff. Right. Cheese will be next. Coming up, more on the breakup heard around the world and what House Speaker Mike Johnson knows about the Musk-Trump feud.
13:07And he responds to concerns about the national deficit, like from his fellow Republican colleague, Senator Ron Johnson. He'd like to cut, you know,$8 trillion overnight, some huge figure like that. So would I. We don't have the votes to do that. And if you did that that quickly, it would actually do real harm to the U.S. economy. So we have to do this in a step-by-step sequence. Squawk Pod will be right back.
13:35Welcome back. This is Squawk Pod from CNBC with Joe Kernan and Becky Quick. Stand by Joe. His mic. Q. President Trump publicly feuding with Elon Musk over the White House's big bill. NBC News reporting that there are no plans for Trump and Musk to hold a phone call today, as had been reported earlier. A White House official says Trump is not interested in a call with Musk. The Tesla CEO trained some of his social media fire yesterday on our next guest, House Speaker Mike Johnson. And Mr. Speaker, thanks so much for joining us this morning. What a day, what a 24 hours, what a year, what a life.
14:17I don't know we were going to talk about the bill, obviously, but can we at least touch on this and what you know? I thought you were supposed to have a conversation yesterday with with Elon. Did that happen or was it just text? Well, we exchanged text messages yesterday. I spoke with him at length on Monday. And and that's why the kind of the blow up that happened this week was was very surprising, disappointing to me. We had a very friendly conversation. I really like Elon. He's a friend. I've come to truly respect his acumen. The doge effort was heroic, patriotic, helped us find a lot of savings and abuses that Congress was not able to uncover.
14:53cover previously. So huge contributions. And look, we can have policy differences. We hear have that here in this building, you know, every day. But it's not personal. Shouldn't be personal. You know, I don't tell my friend Elon how to I don't argue with him about how to build rockets. And I wish he wouldn't argue with me about how to craft legislation and pass it. But, you know, we've had some some good discussion. I thought it was helpful, fruitful. But, you know, it's just disappointing. I hope it all resolves today. Look, we these are these are two titans. I respect them both. I'm of course a huge fan and supporter of President Trump.
15:27I was with him in the Oval Office yesterday afternoon when some of this was unfolding and he was disappointed. I was disappointed. I just hope it resolves quickly for the for the sake of the country. Well, Mr. Speaker, one of the points that the president made early on yesterday was that Elon was intimately involved with what was in the big, beautiful bill. and was well aware of it. If there are shortcomings in terms of, and you've had to deal with your caucus, I don't know what's possible. I don't know what's possible in the Senate, but we're all well aware of the obstacles to getting a perfect bill.
16:05And I think Elon Musk, we must have had those conversations with him. So he was familiar with it. Suddenly, you know, the hyperbolic language he used to describe the bill even last week, where did that come from and what do you attribute that to? I really don't know. I mean, the point is well taken. We worked to craft this legislation over about 14 months. I mean, we began this in March of last year, working to craft a reconciliation package using 11 different committees in the House. They each worked in their area of jurisdiction and developed that policy over months and months of long discussion and deliberation and uh...
16:44and and and and and finding consensus on it and so each of the committees came out with their uh... individual pieces of the large reconciliation bill over a series of of months and weeks i mean all this text was out in the public everyone knew exactly what we were talking about uh... there was nothing done under uh... you know late at night other than uh... a long session to get to the final vote and that's because the democrats tried to stall it in the rules committee so look everyone had plenty of time to review and digest what was in the legislation i'm i'm i'm sure you want to what was in it as well.
17:13And look, the American people are sort of caught up in the drama of this, but I don't think at the end of the day, you know, tweets and social media posts really determine what's the most important to the American people. I think what they're concerned about is what we all promised on the campaign trail, what President Trump was elected to do, the mandate that we got by 77 million popular votes, and that is to make sure that border is secure, to rebuild our military industrial base at a very difficult time. That's the only new spending in this bill. The rest of it is securing historic tax cuts for the people, making the tax cuts permanent, having a pro-growth set of infusion into the economy, jet fuel to the economy, which is what this bill will provide, and at the same time, a historic level of savings for the American people.
17:57It's a fiscally responsible product. It is the first in a series of steps to get us back on a sound fiscal trajectory. And I think, Joe, it's a very important message for us to send to the bond markets, the stock market, investors, job creators, entrepreneurs, risk takers around the world, and here, of course, in the U.S. economy. The Congress is serious. We have steady hands on the wheel. We're going to address the debt problem at the same time as we are making the economy work again. And we can't wait to get that done. Speaker Johnson, this week, you know, Elon's one thing, but you do have to get through the Senate.
18:27And this week, we have a series of senators who have come on this program to talk about their concerns with the bill, including Ron Johnson and Rand Paul, who both have said they will not support the bill in its current status because they think it adds trillions of dollars to the deficit. Their words, not mine, no matter how you want to spend this or how you want to do the math, obviously it's different depending on the growth prospects that come to it, but these are two senators whose support you need who are saying they will not give it at this point. What's happening in the Senate? They also have support from others like Rick Scott and Mike Lee.
19:00do you know where things stand and how you might be able to wrangle some of the Republican senators on that front? Listen, I love Rick Scott, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson. I mean, they're good friends. We have lots of discussion about this. We are all deficit and debt hawks. We're concerned about the fiscal trajectory of the country. The national debt is the number one national security threat. We have to address it. But here's what I think Ron is missing in this. All of this is he'd like to cut, you know,$8 trillion overnight, some huge figure like that. So would I. We don't have the votes to do that.
19:33And if you did that that quickly, it would actually do real harm to the U.S. economy. So we have to do this in a step-by-step sequence of steps. Look, I liken this to an aircraft carrier. Y 'all have heard my analogy. I mean, we did not get in this situation overnight. The U.S. economy is like a large vessel on the sea. You don't turn it on a dime. It takes a mile of open ocean. But we've had since I've been alive. I mean, this is the largest cut in spending that any legislative body on the face of the earth in all human history has ever achieved. And we did that by a long, deliberate process of getting everyone there.
20:09Remember, I have a very diverse Republican caucus. I've got people from very different districts across the country. They all see the same problem set with different lenses. And I've got to concoct 218 votes, currently 217 votes, to get something across the line. So we did that. We reached equilibrium. We achieved this massive achievement with the package. And I told my Senate colleagues at their lunch Tuesday, two weeks ago, two days before we passed the bill here, that, listen, remember that I'm crossing the Grand Canyon on a piece of dental floss, okay? I've got a very delicate balance among all the interests.
20:45And if you load it up with too many changes or modifications when it comes back over, then we're not going to be able to balance that. So I've encouraged my friends to, you know, put their fingerprints on it, but do it as lightly as possible. We had Senator another Johnson. That's very common names. So I think the most common. But we had Senator Ron Johnson on a couple of days ago. And I'll tell you, he will you your friends, you like him and you listen. He can make a pretty compelling case for two bills. And he says, well, all I want to do is get back to pre pandemic spending levels. And there's no one who doesn't sit there and go, what are we doing?
21:23You know, where we had a six hundred billion dollar deficit. Now we're stuck at two trillion. I don't even know how that happened. So you're nodding and I'm nodding and going, yeah, that makes sense. So do the do the easy part first, extend the tax cuts and then go line by line in the second bill. But I just thought of something. You'd still have the same caucus with that second bill, wouldn't you? So whatever whatever constraints are on you and obstacles that you have right now, why wouldn't they rear their ugly head? And in the Senate, you'd have the same problem in the Senate. So you're basically dealing with what you can with with the hands that you've been dealt.
22:02That's right. And the reason I advocated for the one bill strategy from the very beginning is because I know my team here. I mean, the job of the speaker in an era with razor-thin majorities is that you've got to know your members and you've got to know their districts to a granular level so that you can build that consensus that's necessary to get the product delivered. And we've been doing that here. And I told my Senate colleagues, it's much more complex in the House than it is the Senate. I know they have the same debates, but I've got more than 170 additional personalities and districts to deal with than they do, right?
22:35So it's a complicated balance. But everyone here wants to reduce spending. All of us want to return to pre-pandemic spending levels. I mean, we do, but you have to do that in a sequence of events. We have a plan. OK, this is the first of a multi-step process, as I mentioned. We're going to have another reconciliation bill that follows this one, possibly a third one before this Congress is up, because you can have a reconciliation bill for for each budget year, each fiscal year. So that's ahead of us. We're also doing rescissions packages. We got the first one delivered this week from the White House, and that will codify many of the doge cuts.
23:11There'll be a series of those that come along. And we have the actual spending bills, the regular appropriations process upcoming where we will spend less money. This is the team that will deliver and return us to fiscal responsibility. But it takes us a little bit of time to do it. Yeah. What what are you hearing from your colleagues in the Senate? It's likely about salt. I mean, they've got you've got, you know, your own issues with your caucus. I mean, Susan Collins and, you know, Josh. What are you expecting to come back? What are going to be the priorities for what the Senate changes? And then when it gets to your guys, I'm how big is your hat with the rabbits?
23:52How many rabbits are in the hat that you're always dealing with, Mr. Speaker? You got a few left in there? Well, look, it's a lot of prayer and patience that delivers this. I wish I had a magic hat. They've written my eulogy about 10 times, and they've discounted our Republican majority, and everyone said we couldn't do all this, but we keep delivering. And the reason we do is because I sit, spend a lot of time listening to everyone, taking in their opinions and their preferences, and at the end of the day, we find that compromise. The salt part was a big piece of this, right? It took us about a year to come to that equilibrium point.
24:26We were able to get it through the House. And I understand my Senate Republicans over there, my dear friends over there, they're all from red states. You know, they don't have a lot of tolerance for that. They don't like it. I'm from a red state. I'm not in love with the idea of a higher salt cap either. But I told them the reality is our majority in the House Republican Conference runs through states like California, New York, and New Jersey. They're not red states. But my team members who win in those districts are critical for us to maintain the House majority. If we don't get this bill passed, not only are the American people going to have the largest tax increase in U.S.
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24:58history descend upon their heads at the end of this year when all this expires, but all these other pro-growth incentives in the economy won't happen. And small business owners and job creators and entrepreneurs will not expand their businesses. Wages won't go up. The job participation rate will remain low. and inflation will continue to increase. We won't have the solutions. But also remember, if we don't deliver on this and we don't deliver a little bit on salt relief, then we're not going to have the House majority. And if we lose the House majority, the Democrats take over, they will impeach Donald Trump.
25:30I would forecast probably on the first few days of the new Congress next January, in January 27th, and everything will go to chaos. So this team has to stay in power. This team has to stay working on our plan to get our fiscal trajectory back And it all begins with the one big, beautiful bill. Everybody who is criticizing this is playing with fire. We have got to deliver this product. We promised the people we would. I think we will by July 4th. Very quickly, one of the questions that's been asked about Elon Musk falling out and the potential for other business leaders to potentially take his side, I don't know if that would happen or not based on some of the things he said yesterday.
26:08But Elon Musk thinks he helped get that majority elected. Do you agree with that? Elon was a big contributor in the last election, but this was a whole team effort. I mean, President Trump is the most consequential political figure of his generation, of modern American history. He is the one responsible for that. But we all worked hard. We delivered the House majority. I traveled the country nonstop. I did over 360 campaign events in 250 cities and 40 states and logged enough miles last year that circled the globe five and a half times. I mean, I contributed to it as well. All of our House Republicans did.
26:42They worked so hard, and we delivered for the people. And we made them promises, and that's what we're fulfilling in the one big, beautiful bill. Everybody needs to remember the reason we're using reconciliation is because it is the way around the 60-vote threshold. You only need 51 votes in the Senate. If we don't do it in reconciliation, reconciling the budget and saving these costs, saving money for the people, then we've got to do regular order, and Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are not going to help deliver the American First agenda. So all these big campaign promises we made will be jeopardized if we don't get this thing over the line, and we don't do it quickly.
27:13Yeah, I mean, he got elected in 2016. It's close in 2020, obviously. And the whole, I mean, I don't, for lack of a better term, the whole MAGA movement predated Elon Musk. He kind of joined the movement to everyone's surprise. So that doesn't make a lot of sense. When it comes back to the House, Mr. Speaker, would you rather have, who are you more worried about? Your your hawks or the parts of your caucus that are in those districts that voted for Kamala Harris. Where's who do you think you can convince easier yet? Whether would you rather have more cuts or fewer cuts when it comes back to you?
27:57If I were king, I would make massive cuts to the federal government. But I'm not. You know, we're in a deliberative body and it's designed to get it done slowly. Yeah. To get it done. What would you prefer to get it done? John, look, I have I have equal concern among all those caucuses and subgroups because they all have a big say. And when you have a three vote margin, you've got to treat them all with equal weight. And I do that. So we'll see. We'll navigate it. We'll thread the needle no matter how small. But I'm encouraging my Senate colleagues to try to make that as easy as possible. Don't complicate it for us.
28:27I'd hate to say that this getting these two gentlemen back together is your responsibility. That's overstating it, and I don't want to put that on you, but if anyone can do it, maybe it's you. You've got to do all these other things, too, Mr. Speaker. But, hey, you wanted to be Speaker, didn't you? Do you still want to be? You think about it? I never did. Look, I'm a wartime speaker, okay? Everybody says, you having fun? Wartime? No, but we're going to get the job done. All right. Once again, great having you on, especially today. We got it. You know, we have an employment report coming, too, that we didn't get to talk about.
29:05But next time. Next on Squawk Pod, the May jobs report. CNBC's Steve Leisman on a roller coaster to decipher the numbers. It took me a while to find where the jobs were, Becky, because there's a whole bunch of negatives at the top of this report. And Rick Santelli on the reaction across the board to this measure of the U.S. economy. All the other issues, the emotional issues, the touchy-feely issues, we can put them on the front page of every newspaper, but the market isn't necessarily going to pay attention. We'll be right back.
29:43You're listening to Squawk Pod. And it is the first Friday of the month. The U.S. Labor Department releases monthly jobs figures as well as an updated unemployment rate on that day. Today, we are bringing you our full jobs panel discussion. It might be a lot of voices to keep track of, but our Becky Quick does a great job keeping everyone in line. Here we go. It is almost time for that May jobs report. Rick Santelli is going to be covering that for us. But again, Rick, a lot of questions around this, particularly after those weaker than anticipated numbers for the ADP report that came earlier this week.
30:18Absolutely. Now, ADP doesn't necessarily correlate highly, but it's something to pay attention to. 139 ,000 jobs created on non-farm payrolls for the month of May, a smidge higher than we were expecting. And in the rearview mirror, well, there are some revisions. We lose 95 ,000 over the last two months. All right, let's proceed now with the unemployment rate, which remains at 4.2%. If we look at the earnings from a month-over-month perspective, it comes in up 4 tenths. Up 4 tenths. Much better than expected. We were looking for up 3 tenths. In the rearview mirror, at least up to this point, I don't see revisions.
31:02Up 4 tenths. That would equal January of this year, which was the best read to find a higher read. You're back in August of last year. Now, let's look at average hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis. Hotter than expected, 3.9. That's a couple of tenths better we're looking for. One-tenth higher than the 3.8 in the rearview mirror. That equals the first two months of the year, which were the highest to find a higher number. You're going to Dees of last year when it was 4%. Average weekly hours worked. And we want to always pay close attention to this. 34.3 is wild. It's the rearview mirror.
31:38It's the windshield. It's what we arrived at this time around this month. And that means we have three 34.3s in a row, which is building. It was 34.1 and 34.2 in Jan and Feb, respectively. Labor force participation rate, always a welcoming event. We want to bring more people in. It comes in at 62.4. This is a miss. This is the first real miss. That's a couple tenths light, both in the rearview mirror and against expectations. It equals the lightest read of the year, which was in February, to find a lower number. You're going all the way back to the last month of 2022. And finally, drumroll, please, we're going to look at what I call U6, the underemployment rate, because the actual employment rate I already gave you at 4.2 is considered the U3.
32:27So U6 comes in at 7.8. That means that we have back-to-back 7.8s. The lowest read was 7.5. That was January of this year. Interest rates are moving up. Listen, 139 ,000 isn't off the chart strong, but it's stronger than the market was looking for. And even though you can say that we're losing a bit of steam on job creation, what you can say is that you cannot say that it's happening quickly. And you cannot say it isn't accompanied by a mixed bag of other economic fundamentals. Some point to slower glide path, some point to better glide path. Interest rates on the week, and this is important. A two-year closed at 390 last week, so we're basically up close to six basis points.
33:15A 10-year closed at 441 last week. It's basically up two basis points. Pre-opening equities, they like this number. Back to you. Ah, Rick. Okay, thank you for wrapping that all up. Stick with us. We want to bring in some more people from our jobs panel. First up is Douglas Holtz-Akin. He is American Action Forum president and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. Kitty Richards is senior fellow at Groundwork Collaborative and a former Treasury Department official. Sarah Malik is Nuveen CIO and the head of equities and fixed income. And, of course, our very own Steve Leisman and Mike Santoli.
33:53Steve, we'll go to you first. What do you see that really jumps out at you in this report? It took me a while to find where the jobs were, Becky, because there's a whole bunch of negatives at the top of this report when it comes to the durable stuff and the manufacturing down 8 ,000, retail down 6.5. But the jobs were created where the jobs have been created. I'm looking here, just found it in the nick of time here. Health care up 78 ,000. I'm just about to get to leisure and hospitality up 48 ,000. There it is. So that's where the jobs were, and that's where they continue to be. Kind of interesting that you had that retail decline, 6 ,500.
34:295 ,000. Not a big number, but the question is whether or not how they're dealing with all the tariff situation. You did still have an increase in transportation and warehousing. That was up about 6 ,000. So that's a good number. Kind of up and down. To me, the revisions may be pointing the direction of the weakness that we're expecting to get. They were still positive numbers, but now we seem to be settling down into a lower run rate here on jobs. Still enough to put to people who are coming into the workforce to work. And that's why you have your steady unemployment rate. Looking at the work week has been kind of steady at this 34.3 number, which is a bit low.
35:11But, you know, we'll take it, Becky. We're navigating a lot of confusion for businesses and we're hearing terrible anecdotes from businesses, but not showing up dramatically in the jobs numbers. OK, let's dig at this from another direction to Mike. We are seeing the stock movement at this point. Stocks came back a little bit. Rick pointed out that yields came a little higher as well. I guess the good news here is maybe the the economy is stronger than we had been anticipating post ADP. Right, Becky, and certainly stronger than perhaps some folks were leaning given some of those negative inputs like ADP.
35:50I do think it's pretty close to the sweet spot in terms of monthly job gains. Maybe you want it even a little bit stronger to get a more emphatic equity reaction with those downward revisions. But this is fine. It enables investors to kind of, you know, kick their acute concern for a weakening of the economy ahead by several weeks. Right. We're not seeing it in the in the hard numbers just yet. And that's probably important because the Federal Reserve has expressed no real interest in acting anytime soon. So if you have a wait and see Fed, you want the real economy to hang in there. Yesterday, the S &P was down about half a percent.
36:25Half of that decline was Tesla alone. So today, in the equity futures, you're getting back all of that and a little bit more as the market, let's keep in mind, is up 23 percent in two months off that low in early April. So a rest would not be surprising after this move. Doug, I guess the question it does beg, though, if the economy is stronger and if the jobs market is strong, you're not looking at higher unemployment, is that really a reason for the Fed to cut rates? We've looked at the inflation side and said, okay, inflation has not been high. Maybe the Fed could cut rates. But if you look at the unemployment picture, I guess the question is, should they?
37:00I don't see the Fed cutting anytime soon. You know, most of this stems from the tariff imposition. And that's a second quarter phenomenon. And I think we'll see the evidences, we'll see the price increases in the second quarter. But I think the deterioration on the employment mandate is going to be in the third quarter. And so Fed's going to hold because the first thing they're going to see is higher prices. I mean, we've had studies out of the New York Fed, the Atlanta Fed, where they've talked to businesses in their districts, and the majority are passing along the tariffs as higher prices. And so that's going to show up quicker.
37:35That's what the Fed has to worry about up front. Second half of this year, they're going to talk about cuts, but not yet. Kitty, you agree that the the second half of this year will bring job cuts? I think that, as Doug was saying, a lot of the uncertainty that's created by the tariffs and other kind of chaotic management of the economy by the Trump administration is only going to start really impacting the labor market on a slower timeline. We are starting to see some of the softening. I hate to see the labor force participation dropping while unemployment stays steady. You know, the revisions downward from the last few months are putting us on a trend for lower job growth.
38:13But a lot of the job cuts really come from those increased prices for inputs that are only going to start working their way through the system and a pullback in investment due to the uncertainty of what's going to happen over the next few months. And that really takes some time to really impact the labor market. Hey, Rick, who do you think is going to tell the stock market about the chaos if it hits new highs near term. I think everybody will keep calling it that way. And anybody who has a 401k should keep their fingers crossed that they keep doing it. That contrarian viewpoint keeps fueling more upside.
38:50And I would like to point out something with respect to this, quote unquote, deteriorating job picture, that three month moving average of nonfarm payrolls is 4 ,000 less than 139 ,000 that we had today. So I just don't see that there's this, you know, added negative impetus by all the headlines that are out there. I'm not saying that they're not all accurate. There's not uncertainty. But the market certainly seems to be much more adult about it than many of the analysts. Why do you think the market snapped back? What is it? I mean, the market's not stupid. Maybe maybe it goes back down and Tesla lows, Rick.
39:29But what do you attribute it to? Just the level of skepticism and negativity. It was bound to happen. Listen, your partners in business don't need to necessarily personally like you or think that maybe your last couple of traumas or outbursts are good. They just need to realize that you're their best business partner. The U.S. is the place to do business. The dollar is the currency to do business in. All the other issues, the emotional issues, the touchy-feely issues, we can put them on the front page of every newspaper, but the market isn't necessarily going to pay attention. It's going to pay attention to business, real business, which isn't driven by emotions and it isn't driven by, gee, do you like me or not?
40:18They're doing business with us because we're the only alternative with the rule of law and all the other issues that many of the newspapers and the websites say has deteriorated. And I totally disagree. And I think the market does, too. Sarah, as an investor, what do you think about that? There's three ways this number is going to impact the markets. The first is the S &P going to 6 ,000. Second is how the Fed's going to react. And third is what's going to lead us, which is tax. So I think this is a relief for investors. The S &P likely hits its next hurdle, which is 6 ,000. We cross that and we stay there.
40:53Second is how the Fed going to think about it. It gives them a little bit of breathing room. They don't have to rush to cut rates because what we were worried about is that employment markets tend to crack right whenever a recession starts. So if the Fed waits too long and employment markets show too much weakness, likely the Fed would fall behind the curve. Third is what's led us out of the recovery since Liberation Day has been tech stocks. I think that continues to lead. We just saw a Broadcom report last night. We're hearing basically that there's insatiable demand for artificial intelligence.
41:24I think tech continues to lead from here. And looking at this number, what's important is health care jobs coming in at 78000. That's been a big leader for this number year to date. Every month we've seen about 60000 jobs created by the health care industry. And that is an acyclical industry that shouldn't be impacted by tariffs. So that's a positive and should be a driver of the jobs market going forward. Hey, Doug, what do you think about what Rick was just positing, this idea that it's OK long term, that we may be dealing with some cross currents at the moment, but that investors will still come here.
41:56Businesses will still come here. Well, I think Rick's right that people care about doing business, but business just got a lot more expensive with China. Thirty percent or higher that we're on a pause with those tariffs. So doing business has gotten more expensive. Where we find you, Aiken, you're a Republican guest. We got Kitty on the other side. Hold up your end of the bargain. I'm an analyst. You got to do the numbers, Joe. Am I right, Rick, or not? That's all there is, too. That's why I went to Rick. That's why I went to Rick. It's like four against one. Anyway. But Rick is right about one thing.
42:30I mean, there's no question. The market's pricing the overall economy. The bulk of the U.S. economy is services. I hope you didn't sell your stock. I hope you didn't sell your stock at the low, Joe. I hope you didn't sell your stock at the low. The good sector is deteriorating. The good sector is deteriorating. That's a concern. Services are hanging in there. And that's why I think it's the second half of this year where the weakness might show up. And that's because you think the tariffs will still be on at the current levels at this point? What happens if there is some solution by July 9th? Go ahead, take that one.
43:05That's a very hard call. I mean, at the end of 90 days, we have the pivotal moment when the president has to decide what he's going to do with the reciprocal tariffs, which in their original launch were a clear overreach and a very danger to the outlook for the economy. I truly hope he doesn't go back there, but I don't know what he's going to do. And I don't know what the courts are going to allow him to do. And so it's really hard to gauge that out. Kitty, I guess I would ask best case versus worst case scenario and what you tell people about that. At this point, I think the really important risk to the economy we need to pay attention to is what's going on in Congress.
43:41So I think we're absolutely right to look at the jobs report and see the strength in the health care sector. Currently, Republicans in Congress are trying to take millions of people's health care away and do it. Yeah, I mean, that's going to be a real problem. There are analysts saying that that is going to filter through the local economies and cause job losses. it's going to be a real drag on local economies across the country if that bill passes. And it's going to make it much more expensive to invest in clean energy, which is going to spike electricity prices. Clean energy is uneconomic. Clean energy can't stand on its own two feet.
44:21That's why we have such big deficits. We want to pay for things that people don't want. The tech growth that you're talking about, the artificial intelligence growth that we just heard about driving the economy, requires massive amounts of new electricity, more than we can create by spinning up new gas turbines over the next couple of years. We're seeing huge deployment of wind and solar at utility scale, including in a lot of red states, that is helping to bring down the price of electricity. If we don't continue that utility scale deployment, we are going to see electricity prices spike over the next few years just because of rising demand.
44:57And that's going to also be a real drag on economic growth. Hey, Mike, what do you think from the market's perspective right now? I mean, you've watched kind of the ebb and flow, the up and down, the volatility rise on these things. What do you think the next thing that we'll be watching for beyond this jobs report? Well, I mean, we have the brute force of massive technology company earnings growth that are partly supporting what we've seen in the markets. What the market does is it kind of processes uncertainty and policy flux into, OK, let me get the weight of the evidence probability for how things are going to turn out here for the private sector.
45:34And for now, it's seeing a pretty steady-as-she-goes economy at the moment with maybe a little bit of downside to some earnings coming down the road. But here's the thing. The stock market got to 6 ,000 like seven months ago. We've had two quarters of really good earnings growth from there. Credit markets are great. The rest of the world's stock markets are making highs. Everything seems like it's fitting together at the moment. So I don't think you have to jump through any hoops to say there's something extraordinary going on that the market is managing to do pretty well right here, all things considered.
46:06So, you know, I think that if there were going to be negative impacts from policy, we just don't know them yet or they haven't hit yet. And so I think that's why the market is reserving judgment on that. Steve, I'll ask you finally, just in terms of the numbers, we keep saying, OK, this is the one that could show us any of these concerns. This is not that number. Does that mean it's not going to come? Or do you think it comes down the road? What's happening here? No, I mean, I think what I hear the Republican or conservative side of the argument at the table is that we're going to have a massive tax increase on imports and there's going to be no economic effect.
46:44I just find that hard to believe. I think there is going to be an effect. How big an effect? I don't know. I think that the report was a reasonably good one. I think the downward revisions that you had to the prior months tells us there is brewing week, that you did have a bit of a pop in jobless claims, a bit of a pop in continuing claims. I do think it does show up. You've had a lot of uncertainty. Maybe what's happening is people are waiting before they make any rash decisions when it comes to their employment. You have the same kind of employment that you had in the previous administration, which I would point out, The current administration complained was not good deployment.
47:23So you have essentially health care and leisure and hospitality. You do have 22 ,000 lost in government. I think it is still to come, Becky, but maybe not as much as we had thought, because businesses find a way to adjust. I would just reserve judgment and not give the all clear signal just yet. Who's we? So, Rick, you got any final thoughts? I got a guy here. You're chortling in the back. You know what? But I have final thoughts. Here's my final thought. Anybody who talks from bullet points or talking points, you know, toss them away. Here's the only bullet points I like to use. It's the market.
48:01I'm not talking from bullet points, Rick. I don't know what you're saying there. I'm not talking about you. I didn't talk. Did I say Steve Leisman? Okay? When I hear that we're kicking people off health care, you know, people need to do better research on exactly where we're going, where we've been. And in the past, how we've arrived at various functions between welfare and entitlements. You know what? We can't afford to continue to help people that don't really need the type of help that some of the bullet points say they need. Because if we keep doing this, folks, and this is important, we won't be able to afford to help anybody.
48:41All right, folks. Thank you to our entire jobs panel. Doug, Kitty, Sarah, Rick, Steve and Mike. We'll see you guys later. And that is Squawk Pod for today and for the week. Thank goodness it's Friday. Thank goodness it's jobs Friday. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern. Or get the best of our show right into your ears when you follow Squawk Pod and listen anytime you want. Check out our new three times a week bonus podcast, Five Things to Know Before the Opening Bell. That gives you a quick listen of pre-market headlines on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.
49:19As always, reach out. We're on X at Squawk CNBC. You can rate or review Squawk Pod on Apple Podcasts as well. We'll meet you back here on Monday. Have a great weekend. We are clear. Thanks, guys.
From the publisher
President Trump and Elon Musk are in a very public clash on social media, an explosive end to a bromance that began on the President’s campaign trail. The allegations, the X posts, and what’s next–plus, what Congress and the reconciliation bill have to do with the fight. Musk targeted House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) in some of his latest social media posts, but Speaker Johnson tells us, “it doesn’t need to be personal.” He explains the GOP rifts over addressing the national deficit. U.S. hiring in May slowed, but not as much as economists expected. CNBC’s Mike Santoli, Steve Liesman, and Rick Santelli join former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin, Nuveen’s Saira Malik, and former Treasury official Kitty Richards to discuss the report and what the numbers tell us about the country’s economic trajectory.
Speaker Mike Johnson - 16:13
Jobs Panel - 34:10
In this episode:
Mike Johnson, @SpeakerJohnson
Steve Liesman, @steveliesman
Mike Santoli, @michaelsantoli
Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick
Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk
Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie
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