The G20, Spider-Man, & OpenAI’s Call on Cursor 8/31/26

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1:27our trajectory is. Is going to the movies back? Maybe. 2026's big box office summer. Fandango's Eric Davis joins us. We have an Avengers Endgame re-release coming at the end of September. That's going to feed into Avengers Doomsday. And so, you know, some would say that Marvel maybe has never been hotter as it is right now. Plus, new U.S. strikes against Iran are Dan Murphy in the Middle East. It's too soon to say if this is an isolated flare-up or the start of a new round of kinetic escalation. And reaction to the president's weekend deal giving U.S. access to Venezuelan oil fields. Exporting the creepy brand of crony capitalism.

2:06It's Monday, August 31st. Can you believe it? 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand Becky by in three, two, one. Cue it, please. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We are live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Let's take a look at where things stand. You're not supposed to be here. Apparently I'm not supposed to be here, but here I am. You know what? You are. You surprised us all and came in, and you can have all my interviews. Or I could just take a free ride. Or you can just sit there.

2:43But, you know, it was split up, and we talked about it. It's easier to do the show with three people. It is. Because it's only 33%. 53 percent. Yeah, you do 50 percent. 50 percent. Yeah. When we do the interviews. But if there are any that you toss your least favorite interview. I go. I am. I've already I've already. That'd be hard. You're going to give it away. It'd be hard to pick. They don't know. Nobody knows who has who has what. In the meantime, the U.S. and Iran firing at each other for the first time now in weeks. And CNBC's Dan Murphy joins us now with more from Abu Dhabi. WTI crude, by the way, up at eighty six dollars already this morning.

3:18Andrew, good morning. That's right. Oil prices well bid. After Washington's first confirmed attack on Iran in several weeks, U.S. forces hitting two Iranian rocket launchers on Liraq Island on Sunday. That is just off the coast of Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command saying the Iranians were preparing to fire sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command saying not so fast and taking what it called limited precise action against IRGC mine laying forces. President Trump also escalating the rhetoric this morning, posting an AI-generated video on Truth Social and threatening once again to blow up Karg Island, that is Iran's main oil export terminal.

4:00Now, Iran also responded with missile fire of its own, this time towards Jordan. Jordan's military says it intercepted eight missiles. Iran also claimed to target US sites in the UAE, the UAE saying it intercepted an Iranian drone, but also denied a strike on any U.S. or Emirati airbase. Now, we've had reaction on the ground here from very senior Emirati voices, including the UAE presidential advisor, Dr. Anwar Gargash, who once again called for de-escalation and the restoration of normal shipping through Hormuz. The big question now is kind of where to from here. I think it's too soon to say if this is an isolated flare-up or the start of a new round of kinetic escalation.

4:45most likely an isolated flare-up based on everything we've been hearing from the White House over the last couple of weeks. The White House, of course, now banking on sanctions, basically doing the work that strikes so far have not, as we see the U.S. Treasury Secretary heading to the G20 this week to make the case for more economic pressure against Iran. Let's back over to you. In terms of what comes next, what is there any any sense of what a timeline is here and and and sort of what the genuine impact is well on the ground we're watching and waiting to see what the full extent of the treasury secretary's economic d-day is going to look like so far we've seen isolated action against branches of an egyptian bank in dubai but the full extent of some of the measures that the treasury secretary laid out still really yet to hit.

5:41Yes, Iran's economy is hurting, but you also get the sense that there is perhaps a lot more economic pressure that the United States can apply here in the absence or maybe in the alternative of going back to more direct military action, which you also get the sense the White House would prefer to avoid. So in terms of what happens next here again, we're watching and waiting to see what's announced on the economic front and also watching to see whether or not the Iranians are willing to take this any further as well. Again, the likelihood of escalation on the Iranian side also being reduced as some of those U.S.

6:16economic measures really take effect. Well, that's the question I really have for you, Dan. On the ground, is there a sense that these measures are working? Is there a sense of skepticism that they're not working or there's not going to be enough? We've heard from the Treasury Secretary. I think we all don't know ultimately, you know, how far the U.S. is going to push China and how far China will or will not ultimately go.

6:42That's exactly right. And getting America's allies and partners and its adversaries on side in this Iranian action is going to be really critical in really pulling that economic lever against Iran. On the ground here, there is a real sense that Iran's economy is hurting, as I mentioned. Of course, the UAE, for example, which has for many decades been kind of a conduit for financial transactions for Tehran, also putting up its own walls now and really attempting to pull in line with the United States to ensure that the economic pressure continues to take a hit here. But again, how much further the United States will go is being very closely watched.

7:24Iran's economy really hurting. Of course, inflation skyrocketing, the currency continuing to spiral, average everyday Iranians also being hurt on the ground. So whether or not that leads to a direct change inside Tehran, I think remains to be seen at this point. But you also get the sense that on the whole, Andrew, this still has a lot further to run. Okay, Dan, thank you for that. Appreciate it. All right. Another key focus for the oil market is the U.S. deal with Venezuela. The U.S. will take majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves in the South American country. President Trump calling it the biggest oil deal in world history.

8:03It follows the American capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro back in January, the country's interim president, saying that the oil agreement will last for 25 years and target an increase in crude output to 1.5 million barrels per day. It's unclear who's going to pay for investments to revitalize Venezuela's crumbling oil infrastructure on true social. President Trump said he would use some of the crude to help refill the SPR, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve here in the U.S. But, I mean, just read the scuttlebutt. This really raises more questions than it answers about so many different things, whether it survives past, you know, President Trump, whether it's even possible to do this in the Venezuelan Constitution.

8:51the individual that's running the oil company that the U.S. is taking a stake in, is kind of questionable, at least that's being pointed out, again, Andrew, by some people. I'm going to use that. The Wall Street Journal. Yeah, a lot. The Wall Street Journal has a real problem with this. Well, yeah, they're calling it Godfather 2-like and like the gold phone that we were giving down in Cuba. But it kind of puts us in competition with the majors who, one of the problems is they've still been very slow to go down and make commitments to develop. Understandably so. Because it's they've made in the past have evaporated.

9:34So I don't know how long it lasts, whether it's dependent on Delce Rodriguez. It just there's a lot of questions whether it actually happens. But the president at this point, given what's happening with$86 oil in Iran, this sounds great. And in principle, it would be great to have access to. I was shocked at the reserves that Venezuela has. By far the largest in the world. By far the largest in the world. And I see how you'd want to do this. I don't know if this is the way you do it. The journal referred to it as exporting the creepy brand of crony capitalism present in the United States right now, even exporting that.

10:14But the oil market has decided this is not happening, at least not yet. Right, the oil market is trading off of the strikes in Iran today. You know, after three weeks or whatever it is, the hostility is happening again on both sides. Right. OpenAI saying that it will end developer access to its models on Cursor after Elon Musk's SpaceX acquired that business earlier this month. In its announcement, OpenAI said, we are making this choice because we cannot be confident that SpaceX will use our technology within our terms of service based on our experience with Elon Musk's companies violating contracts.

10:55Cursor's CEO said on X that the company was in talks with OpenAI to resolve the situation. In his own X post on Saturday, Musk wrote, I couldn't care less and called OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman utterly untrustworthy. Obviously, a lot of history between all three of the gentlemen and the lawsuit that they just went through. It's interesting because one of the things, though, about Cursor in particular, but not Cursor, but any of these models, potentially capturing the prompts is very valuable. And so if you can capture the prompts effectively from a user on an open AI, for example, that's like giving away the story.

11:36If, of course, the cursor folks are leveraging that. And the question is whether you know whether they're leveraging that or not. SpaceX launching NASA's$4.3 billion Roman space telescope. It's named after the late Nancy Grace Roman, who was NASA's first chief astronomer. The telescope is expected to help shed light on dark matter and dark energy, which make up most of the universe but are very little understood. The telescope will search for planets, which NASA's more powerful James Webb Telescope will then examine more closely. Coming up, the mother of the Hubble. She's also known as a long time ago.

12:18The Hubble. Started the whole astronomy division of NASA, I guess. It was the first female executive. Decade, not 100 years, but 70, 80 years. Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod, finance ministers for the world's largest economies are gathering in North Carolina. And two U.S. officials get top billing to sell America's growth agenda and inflation-fighting plan. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh meet the world. Former Treasury official Joe Livornia is next. It seems to me that given the outlook, and rates have risen for the right reasons, it's real rates as expectations of growth have picked up.

13:01It looks like third quarter growth, current quarter growth could be up near 5%. If that's the case, we don't need those extra rate cuts last year. So I think the Fed chair knows that and will cut rates, or sorry, will raise rates to reverse those cuts. Prep for a busy week with Whole Foods Market. Start your day with fully cooked breakfast sausages from Amy Liu, 365 brand frozen waffles with no bleached flours, and of course Whole Foods Market eggs, which are all cage-free or better. In the evening, bring home a build-your-own-family meal that feeds four for just$35. Choose one entree and two sides.

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14:14Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash marketupdatepodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. You're listening to Squawk Pod with Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Finance ministers from G20 countries gathering for a meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, this week ahead of the event, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, telling the AP that the Trump administration plans to impose sanctions on another bank this week as it intensifies efforts to economically isolate Iran.

15:04Joining us now, Joe LaVornia, SMBC chief economist, and a former treasury official under President Trump. We need scientific notation to talk about inflation, apparently, and currency devaluation in Iran. Does any of this ever get to the point where something happens to the power? And I don't even know who the powers that be are or whether they care about their economy. It seems like some do, but some don't. Is it working, Joe? Do you know? Joe? Hi, Joe. Good to be with you. The secretary just announced that about a week ago, secondary sanctions really have never been used before. You know the secretary a bit.

15:46He's a man of principle, and I'm not going to bet against him, Joe. So we'll see what happens. But I think he's very serious about it. And these sanctions have a real chance, these secondary sanctions, of working. And hopefully, it'll have a successful resolution. Yeah, they don't have elections, and they don't really seem to care that much if their population is suffering. I guess that's the point I'm making. Is there a breaking point, do you think, for a society like that? The thing is, if you look at the – I mean, societies or leadership, I should say, generally doesn't maintain its position when you have inflation, hyperinflation.

16:26And that's what we're seeing in the Iranian economy from all the data that's available, is that there's real struggle. Hopefully that brings them to the negotiating table and there could be some successful resolution of this of this situation. But again, Joe, it's been a week. The secretary is working diligently on it. I know that. And we're going to see what happens with this. And I think it's very serious. These secondary sanctions really never been tried before. And they have the potential, I think, to be quite successful. And if President Trump says to President Xi, you know, what's your story here?

17:00What's in it for you? In Iran, we're going to do something with banks. Is there with Chinese banks? Is there any way we get some cooperation with China on this? Are they part of the evil act? I think, Joe, there is. No, I think, you know, the thing is, you know, I'm at G20. And what you clearly get here is that, you know, the secretary's brought in finance ministers and senior officials, policy officials across the world with a lot of business leaders, both large banks, small banks, community banks. And it's all about discussion and trying to maximize good policies. And I would hope that whatever the president says to Premier Xi, it's in a very cooperative type of way, the extent that two important countries can work together.

17:45And, you know, I don't know what those conversations are going to lead to, Joe. But, you know, you've got to have discussion and conversation that's largely what G20 is about. We try to get policies that work for everybody to get growth moving. And then, you know, we'll see. We'll see what happens. But as an optimist, Joe, I think we'll have some successful resolution. The U.S. economy is booming. And I think, you know, I don't want to I know I sound too American on this, but I think, you know, we're the envy of the world at the moment, at least in terms of our numbers and where we're, you know, where our trajectory is.

18:11No such thing as too American, Joe, and a lot of people would say. Kevin Warsh, I think, needed to, I guess, be hawkish in word and in tone. Is he ready to follow through in September or at some point in rate hikes? Or do you think he's hoping that the data allows him to do the Greenspan method, run a hot economy because of productivity from AI? Well, I thought the speech was great. I hope I get to see the Fed chair today and tell him I thought it was a great speech. He covered a lot of ground. It was both at breadth and depth, looking at money, credit, lending, downplaying wages as being really long-term predictive of inflation.

19:06looking at the inflation metrics, looking at a diffusion index, which looking at the breadth of inflation, what components are moving. I thought it was incredibly hawkish. And I thought spot on. I believe, Joe, the Fed will raise rates. The Fed needs to raise rates. The economy is healthy. Last year, I think September. Yes. I mean, look, last year, you know, President Trump put through the O triple B with the help of Secretary Besson. And to me, I look at it as being very economically positive, that those supply initiatives will eventually lead to much faster growth, rising wages, living standards, productivity, etc.

19:40But late last year, the Fed at the time cut rates 75 basis points because they're worried about the labor market. It seems to me that given the outlook and rates are risen for the right reasons, it's real rates as expectations of growth have picked up. It looks like third quarter growth, current quarter growth could be up near 5%. If that's the case, we don't need those extra rate cuts last year. So I think the Fed chair knows that and we'll cut rate or sorry, we'll raise rates and to reverse those cuts. Joe, we weigh in on the debate over the bond buybacks that the Treasury secretary has introduced and what Stan Druckenmiller, his mentor, says about them.

20:18Yeah, I mean, look, the I think, you know, Stan is a money manager. He's had very strong views on how markets and government should work. I understand that. The secretary is in a position where it's the most important economy with the biggest, deepest, broadest capital markets, needs to make sure the market functions properly. And the buybacks are certainly a tool that is used to add liquidity in the market at a time of year when typically, Andrew, you've had a lot of volatility in markets. People are on vacation. They're away in August. So that aspect of the buyback, I think, is very important.

20:48But the buyback doesn't begin until September, right? September 9th. But yes, that's correct. September 9th. But two things. One is to add liquidity to the market, but markets are forward-looking. So in anticipation of the increased buyback, it's going to react now. It's not going to wait a few weeks. To the extent they also might mitigate the speed with which rates rise, I think that's effective. And as a secretary, he's got to make sure those markets are liquid, lubricated. They have foreign demand. So therefore, his role is different than a hedge fund manager, which he clearly understands having been one.

21:19The other question I wanted to ask is there are reports that specific reporters at Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and The New York Times have been prevented from from covering the G20 by the Treasury Department. Is that a decision that you support? I don't know, Andrew, that that's the that's the effect. I mean, I read Bloomberg, I read The New York Times. They've been talking about G20, but I'm not I don't. And there's a lot of people here, but I don't I don't have really any comment on that because I don't know. Would you like to be Chair Warsh? And I don't know how often he talks to the Treasury Secretary or to the president himself.

21:54Would you like to go into the Oval Office and say, Mr. President, I decided we need to raise rates in September? Could you talk President Trump? Could you talk him into the notion? I'm going to do it right now, Joe. I'm going to say, Mr. President, I'm going to raise interest rates and I'm going to raise interest rates. It's going to do a couple of things. It's going to lower the risk premium on the long end, and we're going to get those long rates are actually going to fall. At the same time, I'm going to be raising that short rate, which is going to put more money in people's bank accounts, their savings accounts, T-bills.

22:25They're going to earn more on a safe asset, and it's actually going to help the economy longer term. Because if the goal is to get long rates lower than otherwise would be, a prudent hike basing the balance of risks will get us there. And I think that message would fly well with the president, actually. Joe, when you think about the costs that Americans are facing at this point, part of that is mortgage rates are higher. That's been an issue of concern. That's not something the Fed can immediately address because they're looking at the short end, not the long end. But all of these things are happening with the backdrop of the November elections coming up.

23:00Is there anything that can or should be done around the elections? Or do you tell the president, forget about the elections. This is just something you have to have a little longer timeline with. Well, a little bit longer timeline, I think, Becky, in the sense that, you know, the bill last year that got passed on July 4th, really outside of crisis, we never had passed a bill. The U.S. Congress never passed a bill that quickly. And that made permanent tax changes. It also reduced taxes on capital, but also for a temporary period of time, Becky, made zero, basically full expensing, I should say, for factories.

23:35We're seeing things like manufacturing. We look at the various ISM and regional Fed surveys. There's clear acceleration in manufacturing activity. We are seeing industrial production pick up even outside of tech. Those are all wonderfully positive things that will lift productivity, lift wages, raise living standards, very much what we saw during the first Trump administration. So I expect that trend to continue and accelerate over time. That's where I would counsel patients. In the short term, you know, as an as a growth optimist, I would say, look, we've got very friendly tax and business prudent regulatory policies that are going to get the economy moving, especially like on the small bank community side.

24:12That's going to get lending into small businesses where sentiment has been improving. So I think part of it's a messaging aspect, Becky. And I would have people highlight the fact that the U.S. outlook is pretty healthy, that the growth outlook is good and growth. Actually, I listened to Jamie Dimon speak last night. He said, you know, growth is a bipartisan bipartisan initiative. People left and right both agree on that. And that's what Secretary Besson is trying to foster at this conference is where can we work together to get these global economies moving in sync in ways that maximize efficiency and positive outcomes.

24:45All right, Joe LaVornia, you're not in technically in the Great Smokies, but that's kind of like looks like it down in North Carolina. That's beautiful. So fortunately, it's cloudy, Joe. And there's a golf course right over here. I should have brought my golf clubs, but it's beautiful. Yeah, it's a good walk spoiled. All right, Joe, thank you. Good to have you on. Up next on Squawk Pod, your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man's fifth consecutive weekend winning the box office. Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes correspondent Eric Davis on the movies that win audiences. It has to be a film that lures you in, but I also think it has to be a film that people are talking about.

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