The Shutdown Episode: Speaker Johnson & Minority Leader Jeffries 9/30/25

0:01Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Welcome to Squawk Pod. Today, it is the final countdown. We are just hours away from a government funding deadline that could keep federal workers unpaid, agencies closed, and air travel possibly snarled. So where do we stand? See NBC's Emily Wilkins on the Capitol Hill scramble. If we go into a shutdown, come out of a shutdown, who winds up getting the blame? Republicans and Democrats. Mr. Vice President, so just to be clear, is there room for negotiation here with Democrats? And the White House gearing up for a fight. I think we're headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing.

0:39House Speaker Mike Johnson joins us and points across the aisle Democrats for holding up progress. Hakeem Jeffries and I are friends. We have a great relationship of trust, okay? But I'm telling you that their political position right now is pure politics. And they're doing this for Chuck Schumer's backside, not for the American people. The key health care tax credits that hang in the balance. They're trying to make a December policy debate the issue of the day, and that's not true. Today, all we got to do is keep the government open. And the response, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. It's not a bipartisan spending agreement.

1:13It was a Trump partisan spending agreement. On the high stakes and quickly moving back and forth. Speaker Johnson should call Republican members of Congress back from the vacation that they're on so that we can actually arrive at a bipartisan agreement to keep the government funded. All that today and more. It's Tuesday, September 30th, 2025. Squawk Pod begins right now.

1:41All right. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We're live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. And yes, we are awaiting a potential shutdown. Reds, I didn't wear it for the Reds, but. Why didn't you say yes, I did. I wore it for you for the Reds, Joe. Are you happy? Congratulations. That does make me happy. You made it to the postseason. Like I said, that's the good news. Bad news. It's tonight, 9 o 'clock. Dodgers are good. At least you can say you made it. Yeah. Well, the Mets. Reds didn't even win the game that they needed to win.

2:13The Mets lost. To the Marlins. Didn't score a run. I mean, this epic. You're kind of a Mets fan, aren't you? Mets fan? I mean, I'm kind of a... Like a Mookie Wilson Mets fan. Kind of a collapse. Sort of a generation. It collapses. You need a stronger word than collapse for the last six years. weeks. I don't know what it is. It is the final day of the third quarter and the major averages have really had a spectacular quarter. Right now, the Dow is up by about 5 percent. The S &P is up by more than 7 percent and the Nasdaq is up by close to 11 percent for this quarter. So it has been a very sharp quarter of gains for all of the major averages.

2:54In fact, also check out the Russell 2000 small cap index. It was up by 12 percent for the quarter to date or is on track for that. Of course, one more trading day that we've got to get through. That's the best performance we've seen since the fourth quarter of 2023 for the small cap index. So we'll watch that pretty closely too. Here we go. Heads up. Okay. Well, we met with the president for the first time since all of these issues started, even though we have requested repeated meetings with Leader Thune, Speaker Johnson, and the president. We have very large differences.

3:38In time, that government shutdown, it is now set to take place at midnight tonight. If Democrats and Republicans can't continue to get to a last-minute deal, Emily Wilkins joins us in D.C. right now with the latest. Where are we? I mean, Andrew, at this point, the government's just hurtling towards a shutdown. There doesn't seem to be any sort of off-ramp here. You know, the Senate, they are expected to vote later today on continuing current funding until November. That's unlikely to get the needed seven or eight Democrats that would have to join Republicans to actually get that measure passed.

4:11They've got that 60-vote threshold. Democrats are just continuing to push for a number of health care things, specifically those tax credits, to prevent an increase in some insurance costs if you get your insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace. And yesterday we had that big White House meeting, but after it, the tone was not, not perfectly productive. Vice President J.D. Vance said that Democrats were holding the government hostage to get what they want. I think we're headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing. I hope they change their mind, but we're going to see.

4:45Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said after the meeting that it would ultimately be up to Trump to make the final call. It's now in the president's hands. He can avoid a shutdown if he gets the Republican leaders to go along with what we want. So both sides really dug in there and Trump so far has not weighed in on what he would like to see with the Affordable Care Act tax credits. And this point, we're already seeing signs of exactly what we're going to expect in a shutdown situation. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed yesterday that if there is still a shutdown on Friday. We're not going to be able to get job numbers that could impact data collection.

5:23And of course, guys, that's just one of hundreds of things that could happen as we go into a government shutdown. Andrew? It affects our show and what we get to say about Friday. Can I ask you a question? I see some light somehow. I just can't tell whether Democrats would agree to the period between the CR, do the CR, and then you have time before Obamacare is set up. There's ways of doing this that I think they talked about. I think J.D. Vance even said they had some reasonable ideas. I think the president said some reasonable ideas. Right now, you can make a lot of money as an insurance company signing up people that don't even know that they have the Obamacare because the subsidies from COVID are still intact.

6:10But there's a way of tightening that up a little that I think Republicans would agree to that that would satisfy Democrats. But it's good. I think Republicans are going to say it has to be after you do the CR. Joe, that's exactly you summed up really well. I mean, a lot of them have said, look, we're open to a potential extension. We have to address fraud. A number of them have also talked to me about putting an income cap, going back to that as far as who's actually eligible to get the tax credits. And there is, again, bipartisan support on this. That's the reason why of all the things Dems are asking for, we keep coming back to this one.

6:45It's actually doable. But yes, Republicans have basically said, look, we have to keep the government funded. These are two separate issues. We're not going to combine them into one. Once we fund the government, then we can talk about it. But for Democrats, I think a number of folks in their party, A, they want to show a fight right now. They want to use the leverage that they have. And B, they believe that this is a winning issue for them, that when you talk about health care, when you talk about insurance prices rising, that this is something they can actually push for and potentially get. But I know I asked Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, sorry, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries the other day, you know, can there be a way that if there's just a verbal agreement, Democrats might go ahead and agree to give the votes to keep the government open?

7:27Jeffrey said it has to be in legislation. Would be interested to know how many Senate Democrats also hold that position. The Freudian slip was what that was. But, Emily, the idea of having this in legislation, their point is they don't trust them. They don't think they will go ahead with this. But at the same time, this is the Democrats kowtowing to the progressives who are up in arms over this, said that they are ready to primary Schumer if he doesn't give them what they want. Becky, that's absolutely the dynamic here. I mean, you saw last time it was Schumer and a number of other more moderate Senate Democrats go along back in March to keep the government open.

8:06You saw a huge blowback to that and a lot of concerns that were raised about whether Democrats were going to be able to try to fight and push back. And the fact of the matter is, when you have a Republican trifecta like you do right now, there really isn't a lot of ability for the minority party to push back. And so that's part of what they're doing here. It is a bit of messaging in terms of the base. indeed, as well as just playing politics as far as what they're trying to get done. And I think, of course, the big question is, if we do go into a shutdown, are we going to see those massive federal layoffs that the Trump White House has threatened?

8:42And what is that ultimately going to look like? Because from the guidance, it's not clear if that could be 10 ,000. It's not clear it could be 100 ,000. It could be even more than that. And then what impact is that going to have on the economy? Well, I can tell you when we have Leader Thune and Johnson, And I can tell you, here's what some of the talking points would be. The Democrats voted 13 times under the Biden administration for a clean CR. We're going to hear that there is a bill on Schumer's desk that keeps the government open. And all you need to do is bring it up and vote on it. So when you say it's Trump, if you don't do what we want, we're shutting down the government.

9:21There's no way that that translates to it's Trump's fault. We're shutting down the government. That translates to if you don't do what we want, even though we're the minority party, we're shutting down the government. So I think Trump's right now. Maybe, you know, Schumer's got his own problems with AOC. And he acquiesced, I guess, last time. But it's just a walking, quacking duck with a yellow bill. We know what the situation. I mean, if you look at previous shutdowns in 2018 and 2013, It does kind of mirror a bit of a situation where there is a smaller group. They want to be able to get something done.

9:58They try to use the shutdown scenario to get leverage. And I think there is a big question. I mean, when everything comes out in the wash, if we go into a shutdown, come out of a shutdown, who winds up getting the blame? And at this point, either side is kind of pointing the finger saying, hey, it's the other guys. It's not us. I think it'll wind up being up to the American people probably to decide that at the end of the day. Pointing the finger, he said. Okay, you're right. Yeah, point. Thank you, Emily. We will, you're not going to sleep for a while. So we'll see. Cat naps, Emily. We'll see you in the morning tomorrow.

10:32See how the movie plays out at, you know, 11.58 and 11.59. So Friday's less, you better watch how important we talk about that jobs number. We're not getting the jobs number on Friday. There's no way. Right? You're with Polly Marketer? If we go into, if we go into. Why? They think 70 percent. The Polymarket says it's 99. Yeah, definitely. That we're not that we're going to shut it down. They're going to shut down. I'm still hoping that hold down semblance of hope.

11:02Boeing has reportedly started work on a successor to the company's troubled 737 Max aircraft. The Wall Street Journal says plans are in the early stages at this point. But Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg traveled to a Rolls Royce factory in Great Britain earlier this year to talk about a new jet engine. engine. The 737 MAX, as you probably know, suffered two fatal crashes in late 2018, early 2019, then the blowout of a door plug that wasn't a door on a flight early in 2024. In a statement to the journal, Boeing said it remains focused on its recovery plan. So I don't know whether they confirmed that or I guess you're always thinking about it.

11:41If it's not a door, it's not a door plug. It's a whole plug. No, we still call it a door. We do.

11:50Another fintech firm looking to tap the public markets, Wealthfront filing for a U.S. IPO. Its plans to list on the NASDAQ under the ticker WLTH. Wealthfront helped popularize the robo-advisor style of automated investing. According to its filing, it had about$88 billion in assets on its platform and served 1.3 million customers as of the end of July. In fiscal 2025, it generated about$195 million in net income on about$310 million in revenue. By the way, did you see the revenue numbers for OpenAI? Something like$4.3 billion or something. And it's still not profitable because the costs were north of$6 billion.

12:34Right. The question that I don't know on that front is how much of it is a function of just the continued investment. Meaning if they just stopped, now I don't, obviously they would have a problem if they just stopped. But if they just stopped, could it be a profitable business? I think sometimes they say it could in certain markets. Comparing it to the Amazon, right? Where you could have been profitable much earlier, but they chose to keep building. But the revenue numbers are just mind blowing, how much money they're bringing in. And then you think about not being profitable because they're spending so much more.

13:05Oh my goodness. They're on the hook for more money than they can And fathom, I mean, yeah, it's shocking. Yeah, big numbers, especially when we're talking about this IPO with a few hundred million dollars in revenue and net income. It's like, yeah, let's talk about a bigger company. Once upon a farm, actress Jennifer Garner, that's her baby food company, once upon a farm, filing for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and SEC paperwork. The company said it increased its six month revenue as of June 30th by 66 percent, though it acknowledged it has a history of losses and if you just look a quick glance that would be 110 million i was just wondering what kind of numbers we're talking about which is pretty amazing 110 million for the first six months in revenue for 2025 up from 65.8 same period in 2024 um but as i said i'm not profitable as far as i can tell at this point she has a lot of commercials I think that not, she does stuff for the credit card company more than for her own Once Upon a Farm.

14:09What is that, Capital One? Yeah, that's a new wallet, I think. Those guys, apparently Spike and Chuck and Jennifer and Jim Nance, they're really good friends. Because they drive around together in cars and, you know, and they talk to Willie Nelson. You're talking about Marshall's name? Yeah. Yeah. The cheese will be next. Still to come on Squawk Pod, hours away from a government shutdown, House Speaker Republican Mike Johnson is pushing Democrats to accept what he calls a clean continuing resolution. They're afraid of the far left corners of their base, and they have to show that they're putting up a fight.

14:48At what cost? And an echo of Vice President J.D. Vance's words. We didn't shut the government down during the entire four years of Biden. You know why? Because we did the right thing in the minority. Then later current minority leader Hakeem Jeffries responds to Speaker Johnson. Well, that's all a lie. The shutdown story continues right after this break.

15:13This is Squawk Pod with Joe, Becky and Andrew. Stand by Joe. His mic. Q. It's the final day of the third quarter. I am so getting this. And a government shutdown is looming. We all got sick. We all got sick. Who's the face? She got sick first. I got sick first. It was a different, I had sick. It doesn't mean it's different just because you manifested differently. You gave it to him. He gave it to me. Uh-uh. Okay. I'm so not surviving this. Joining us now, House Speaker Mike Johnson. Mr. Speaker, thank you. Good to have you on this morning. Always good to be with you. Thanks. We're feeling pessimistic.

15:50I don't know, maybe you can talk us out of it. But does it look like at this point this will not be averted, the shutdown? You know me. I'm an optimist, but I am a little skeptical this morning. Whether or not the government shuts down at midnight is entirely up to two people. It's Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, primarily Chuck Schumer. I want to tell you that I spent time with them yesterday. Of course, we were in the Oval Office. They are pursuing a very reckless strategy right now. And for the life of me, I cannot understand what they hope to accomplish other than giving themselves temporary political cover from the far left portion of their base who are demanding that they fight Trump.

16:29There is no basis whatsoever for them to oppose this continuing resolution. What we put on the floor and what we pass through the House, what is sitting on the desk at the Senate right now for Chuck Schirmer to pass, is a clean continuing resolution. There's no partisan writers or policy writers added to it at all. It's 24 pages in length. It is a simple measure to keep the government open so that we can continue the appropriations process. It's done in good faith. And I will say this, Joe, it's exactly what Democrats all voted for 13 times during the Biden administration. Now they don't want to do it because they want to fight Trump.

17:06And a lot of good people are going to be hurt because of this. Mr. Speaker, at that meeting yesterday, did they present and I don't know how much you can talk about what went on. But did they give an entire the Democrats an entire wish list of things that they did they say they want health care for for illegal immigrants and funding some TVs? They said we want all these all these things. Yes. And they put it in writing because, remember, they filed a counterproposal continuing resolution. We filed a 24 page clean CR. They filed a dirty CR as a kind of proposal included in it. And they brought this up in the meeting yesterday.

17:46They want to restore taxpayer funded benefits, American taxpayer funded benefits to illegal aliens. OK, we're not doing that. We got rid of that in our one big, beautiful bill. We're not going back to that policy. This was a big issue in the election last fall. We don't. American taxpayers are not supposed to fund people who break the law coming into the country illegally. They're demanding that as a condition of their votes. They also want to gut the$50 billion that we included in our legislation, have already passed, signed into law, to protect rural hospitals. They want to claw that money back inexplicably.

18:20They want to give the Corporation for Public Broadcasting$500 million, a half a billion dollars, to prop up these left-leaning media organizations that we defunded. I don't think and the American people don't think that taxpayers should be funding that in the age of, you know, ubiquitous media coverage and so many options. So all these things that they're trying to cram into a very simple. Remember the terms of this seven weeks. We're only buying until November 21st again to allow the appropriations process to continue. And I think this is very important. We've talked about this on the program before.

18:54I've been trying very hard since I became Speaker two years ago to force the Congress back into the regular appropriations process. And why is that so important? Because that's how you act as a good steward of the precious resources of American taxpayers. And we've done it. I mean, this is a it's just a great report. Right. The the House Appropriations Committee in a bipartisan fashion worked in past 12 separate appropriations bills through committee, three off the House floor. The Senate passed three bills off the floor there. They don't match up exactly. And so remember the Saturday morning cartoon, I'm just a bill on Capitol Hill.

19:29You know how it's supposed to work now when the two chambers measures don't agree. They get together. They work it out. All that is in process, but we run out of clock because this is the end of the fiscal year. So we just need more time, and that's what this is. In negotiation, it's always great to ask for all these things. And I can't really believe that they really expect to get those things. But I think they are trying to get something, Mr. Speaker. And I'm wondering what how does this get reconciled? And is it have to do with the ACA and these and these subsidies? And is there what is a final deal look like where what do you say?

20:06We'll do it before. We'll do it through the appropriations process. We'll do it the right way. You just got to trust us. Or what are they going to ask for for them to say, OK, we'll do it. I just don't see that path. Do you? No, and that's a red herring. Okay, they're grasping at straws. They're trying to make a political issue out of something that doesn't exist. What they're talking about with the ACA subsidies and these other issues, these are end of the year decisions. We have until the end of December. December 31 is when that expires, not today. So they're trying to make December policy issues, they're trying to make that the issue of today when today's issue is whether or not we're going to keep the government open on a temporary basis so that the lawmakers here can do their work.

20:49We'll have plenty of time for all the policy debates. That's part of the process. That's what we do here. But you have to keep the government open to do it. I would credit President Trump for calling us into the Oval Office yesterday. He's operating in good faith. There is no daylight at all between the President of the United States and the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. We're all united. We want to keep the government open. We have done our work. The House passed the bill. Bipartisan, by the way. We had one Democrat join us. Okay. But they have to have 60 votes in the Senate.

21:17it. Chuck Schumer has got to release a handful of people to come along to do the right thing and keep the doors open for the country. What happens if they don't? This is really important. I mean, the markets will be rattled, I'm sure, because of the uncertainty that we don't need to be adding into this. You'll have a delay of an important, the BLS jobs report is due October 3rd. That will be delayed. But importantly, real services, real benefits that the American people depend upon. Troops won't be paid. TSA agents won't be paid. The WIC program, the Women, Infants, and Children Nutrition Program and other food services will be delayed.

21:54FEMA services won't be provided. We have two hurricanes off the coast of the United States right now. I mean, we're in the middle of hurricane season. This is serious stuff. And Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are playing politics with all these people in the American people's services. And they're willing to do it for political cover. That's the game. They can't face their far-left base. When they come on the program today, I think you're having them both. Ask Chuck Schumer what his real motivation is. He'll try to tell you it's about, you know, these issues that end at the end of the calendar year, December 31.

22:22But what it's really about, he's running from AOC and the socialist base of their party who are going to challenge him in his next election. They said he didn't fight Trump when he did the right thing back in March and did a temporary funding measure. And now he's got to fight. And it's shameful. It really is. Speaker Johnson, I'm not a fan of government shutdowns, whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans that are trying to do it for all the reasons that you just laid out. We do have Hakeem Jeffries coming up in about 15 minutes on the program. Let me try and channel what I think we'll hear from him based on what I've been seeing and reading in other places.

22:58They're going to say that they care about the ACA. and even though that deadline's not till December 31st, they don't trust the Republicans to actually shake on a deal now and then come back and negotiate fairly later. What would you say to them on that point? They feel like this is their biggest leverage point, that this is the one point that they can actually say, no, you have to listen to us and you have to listen to us now. It's not a leverage point. They've concocted it to try to make an argument, okay? Again, that provision of the ACA that they're talking about doesn't expire until the end of December, not September 30th, December 31.

23:35That is an eternity in politics to be able to resolve something. In the meeting in the Oval Office yesterday, Leader Thune was talking to Schumer and Jeffries about the issue, and he said, he said, if indeed there is going to be any extension of that, there has to be real reforms to it because it is a broken system. It is basically the American taxpayers subsidizing insurance companies. Premiums continue to go up because Obamacare is a flawed system. OK, there has to be reform. That's not something you can negotiate in a couple of days. That's going to take all the month of October or November, assuming that we could even reach agreement on that.