The Top State for Business & Debating Prediction Markets 7/9/26

0:00Your data lives everywhere. On-prem, in the cloud, across apps. Bring it all together with EverPure, the platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security, and innovation without ever slowing you down. Sophisticated enough to anticipate your ever-changing data needs, yet simple enough to feel like second nature. Tame your data chaos with EverPure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business. Visit everpuredata.com to learn more. I started Ornod in 2013 and we make bike apparel. The best part of Shopify for me is our ability to run the business as essentially non-technical people.

0:38We're able to admin everything on the back end, front end, and sell things online easily. If Shopify were a bike accessory, I think it would actually be the bicycle. It's the thing that you do the thing on. We run the business on Shopify. Start your free trial on Shopify.com. Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. What is America's top state for business? CNBC has been studying and ranking states economically and dynamically annually for 20 years. Our Scott Cohn crisscrosses the nation. Changemaker. Well, this is the state where the cash register was invented by James Ritty.

1:23He gives us some crazy clues we can't interpret. it, and then reveals the big winner and its leadership. I'm teary. I'm teary. And Governor, thank you that it is finally happening. Where is the answer? Keep listening. And traditional gaming upended by America's new obsession with prediction markets, former Senator Dean Heller. With the gaming industry, if you lose, gaming wins. With prediction markets, all we're doing is putting a buyer and a seller together. Plus, the latest on U.S. strikes against Iran are Megan Casella reports. After those attacks, missile alerts were reported in Bahrain and Qatar, both of which appeared to be targets of Iran's retaliation.

2:03And how to read the tea leaves in a new era at the Federal Reserve. Briefcase indicator. Briefcase indicator. No one carries a briefcase anymore. You know why? Because no one has paper. It is Thursday, July 9th, 2026. Today's Squawk Pod with Joe Kernan and Melissa Lee starts right now. Stand by Joe in three, two, one. His mic is here. Good morning. I don't know. I can't help but smile. Melissa's here. Welcome to Squawk Box here on CNBC live from the net. She's smiling, sort of. Kind of a bemused smile. We're live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. This is the look of someone who's facing three hours with me.

2:47Wait till you see me at the end of the three hours. Will it be a bigger smile or will it be just an exhausted smile? New round of strikes by the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East, as Joe had mentioned. Megan Casella joins us now with the very latest. And Megan, I guess he, President Trump, sort of didn't want to answer the question on Air Force One as to whether or not this was a return to war. That's absolutely right, Melissa. So we saw him sort of sidestep the direct asking of that question all day long yesterday. But you're right, the U.S. launching attacks on Iran late yesterday. It was the second straight day of attacks.

3:18U.S. Central Command saying the strikes hit more than 90 targets, up from 80 the day before, included military logistics infrastructure. And these strikes, they say, were designed to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. After those attacks, missile alerts were reported in Bahrain and Qatar, both of which appeared to be targets of Iran's retaliation. Now, the president said the latest strikes were in retribution for Tuesday's bombing of ships by Iran. And he said if it happens again, it will get much worse. Iran's parliamentary speaker later warned on social media that if you strike, you'll get hit and that the Strait of Hormuz will only open, he says, with Iranian arrangements, not American threats.

3:59All of this coming after President Trump yesterday declared the ceasefire over, at least to him, he says. He also later in the day said that he doesn't see the two sides returning to full-blown war. He also said negotiations can continue and that Iran wants to make a deal very badly, but that he isn't sure if he wants one anymore. He also said he doesn't know if Iran will honor any agreement that gets made. So it all leaves the two sides at this point somewhat in limbo. The president says the ceasefire is off. The sanctions we know are back on. Both sides are exchanging threats. And the MOU appears like it might be fracturing.

4:34But we're also not back to all-out war. And as the market seems to reflect, we have been here, it seems, before. Melissa? Is there any talk or any sort of, I don't know, hint that maybe the attacks would target things like infrastructure, desalination plants, power plants, that would sort of up the notch in terms of intensity? It would certainly up the notch in terms of intensity. It would elicit calls of potential war crimes if the U.S. went that route. I did think it was interesting. There was some reporting in the early hours right after the attacks. Folks were trying to figure out what was hit, and there was some reporting that bridges were hit.

5:08That would have been a big escalation. CENTCOM making clear in their statement it was military logistics infrastructure, and they emphasized all of the targets that they hit. While there were more than the night before, it was still all military-focused. Even in this new round of threats, we haven't seen the president return to those threats that we were seeing before the ceasefire was struck. Things like when he said a whole civilization will die tonight and was threatening those roads and bridges. He has had some threats on infrastructure. He did talk about yesterday the U.S. taking over Karg Island, Iran's oil export hub.

5:38But he also said, why would I now send in boots on the ground? He seemed like he didn't want to do that. So he is restraining himself somewhat. We're not seeing that next level of threats that we once saw. All right. Megan, thank you. Reports say SK Hynix's U.S. listing is more than seven times oversubscribed to have an official pricing today. The South Korean memory chip giant is selling close to 180 million American depository receipts and could raise about$25 billion, which would make it the biggest ever. SK Hynix and its memory chips occupy a critical space in the AI supply chain. Its stock and those of other memory firms have skyrocketed over the past year in surging demand.

6:19Bloomberg says SK Hynix's sale has attracted demand from global long-only funds, tech sector-focused funds, and sovereign wealth funds. The company's South Korean shares gained more than 5 % today. Federal Reserve officials appeared split over the future of interest rates during Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the central bank. According to the latest Fed Minutes, policymakers saw scenarios in which inflation could ease and allow for rate cuts or where price increases could stay elevated and point toward rate hikes. The Fed ultimately decided on June 17th to keep the benchmark rate unchanged.

6:59The so-called dot plot grid of members' expectations narrowly tilted toward one rate hike this year. Then a cut in each of the next two years. Though Warsh didn't make a prediction of his own and plans to change this entire procedure to Fed seconds from Fed minutes at some point. Have you heard that? Oh, he has a task force for that. Is the task force. That's right. No, but wouldn't that make sense? If we're going to get less guidance, you're not going to get minutes of guidance. I mean. Virtually, you're going to get just seconds. It could be a shrug. Could be a. We're going to go back to like the briefcase.

7:39Briefcase indicator. Back to the briefcase indicator. No one carries a briefcase anymore. You know why? Because you have. Because no one has paper anymore. Except for you. The treat. I am. You're a hard copy kind of guy. I'm glacially moving into the future. I did get... Charming. Did get DoorDash the other day. Did you actually use the app? Food was cold. I didn't. Someone did. But the food was cold. You can pay more to be the... We screwed up. You can pay more to be the first stop. Right. You know this? Yes. I think most people who live in this day and age know that. I don't live in the state.

8:24Who would want to? You would look at what's happening around you. OK, go back to whatever era. You like socialism? Does it seem like a reasonable alternative path? But I digress. Democratic candidate Graham Plattner says he plans to withdraw from the Senate race in Maine following an allegation he sexually assaulted a woman in 2021. In an online video, Plattner said his decision to quit the race is not an admission of guilt. instead a reflection of the reality he now faces with support drying up and fundraisers threatening to direct money away from his campaign. I know that some will think it's an admission of guilt, and it most certainly is not.

9:04We're not doing it because of the allegations. We're doing it because of the structures that are being taken away from us by those in power. He said the process to replace him should be, in his words, open, transparent, and democratic. Plattner's exit could make the main seat harder for Democrats to pick up in November. But a critical target for the party in its drive to try to retake the Senate. My God, the enabling comments and videos will live forever. He's my kind of guy, Senator Warren. Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod, debating the difference between prediction markets and sports gambling.

9:42Former Nevada Senator Dean Heller is now an advisor to CalShe. We do weather. We do political campaigns. We do a lot of things in sports betting. Yeah, it is part of that. But keep in mind the difference between gambling and the prediction markets is that prediction markets are peer to peer. One of the parties, though, can still be an algorithm. I mean, there are studies that have shown that they're bots. That conversation is right after this. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading.

10:29Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. Buy the dip and save on CNBC Pro. 24-7 access to market-moving news and interviews across three global live streams for$59.99 at cnbc.com slash join CNBC Pro. Terms and conditions apply.

10:57Welcome back to Squawk Pod from CNBC, where the friction between prediction markets versus gambling is playing out right on our airwaves. Here's a bit of a recent conversation from earlier this week with former New Jersey governor turned advisor to the American gaming industry, Chris Christie. These guys are not regulated in any way. And so what they're doing is they're out there, you know, marketing to 18 year olds, telling them this is an investment. You know, betting is not an investment. It's betting. And, you know, all the predictive markets have called it sports betting at one time or another.

11:35And for them, it's about 90 percent of their business. So, you know, look, I have no problem with CalShe or Polymarket in the sports betting business. But be regulated. Pay your taxes. Don't market to teenagers. Follow the rules. And that was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is now a strategic advisor for the American Gaming Association. And joining us now to respond is Couchy advisor, Dean Heller, former Nevada senator. We should mention that CNBC and Couchy have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Senator, what do you think of what Governor Christie of those?

12:20How would you respond? Where to start? Yeah, Joe, thank you very much for having me on your show. It's great to spend a few minutes with you and talk about some of these issues. I just watched Chris Christie's clip a couple of minutes ago myself, and there's so much misinformation out there. I don't know how much Christie's getting paid to say all this stuff, but literally that clip that you just played, 90 % of it was inaccurate. Uninformed or inaccurate or done on purpose, I don't know. But I've seen this play over and over again. I represented Nevada, of course, in the United States Senate.

12:55So I defended the gaming industry over the years. And most of these people are my friends. But I've seen this movie play over and over again. And they did the same thing with this misinformation when it came to Indian gaming, misinformation when it came to offshore betting, misinformation when it came to sports betting, misinformation when it came to the Wire Act, on and on and on. So this doesn't surprise me. But what Chris Christie said in that clip, 90 percent of it was false. Both you guys are getting paid. Maybe he's getting paid more. Is that why you're mad? Well, I'm not upset. Like I said, gaming, they're all my friends.

13:34But I look at the innovation that's going on with these prediction markets. You know, it's a platform that's more transparent. It's more consumer friendly. And it is regulated. It took Calci four years to get licensed through the CFTC. So that's right. And daily, you know, there there's a watchdog watching over what these prediction markets are doing, who they're who they're transacting with, so on and so forth. So to say that it's unregulated, flat out false. But if you were in the let's say you're DraftKings or, you know, one of the other gambling services, it does seem like I mean, Koushi and others would be a really potent competitor that seems like they didn't have to go through some of the same.

14:23I don't know. It's been very difficult for those companies to get where they are right now. Koushi just comes in and you say that it's not what Christie said was 89 percent. You say volume in sports is two thirds. Is that more accurate? That's about right. I mean, I don't know why the states wants to regulate the commodities industry, but that's what you can do with through the prediction markets and through CalSuite. We do weather. We do political campaigns. We do a lot of things in sports betting. Yeah, it's part of that. But keep in mind the difference between gambling and the prediction markets is that prediction markets are peer to peer.

15:01In other words, with the gaming industry, if you lose, gaming wins. With prediction markets, all we're doing is putting a buyer and a seller together. And by the way, Joe, I worked in the securities industry. I was an institutional stockbroker for a number of years, starting when I was in college. And what I did is I took buyers and I took sellers and put them together, found a price, and I got a fee. And that was it. I did not have a position. And this is how prediction markets work. It's peer-to-peer. It is not a win-lose situation like it is in gaming. And gaming, of course, manipulates everything so that you are bound to lose.

15:41You know, ask people that lose that make four million dollars, but they have to lose 40 million dollars in order to make that four million dollars. That's gaming and that's fine. And if you enjoy doing that and I hope gaming succeeds. All I'm saying is this is two different arenas and they both should get along just fine. Senator, you used the word manipulate. So that got my ears perked up. What are you saying is happening in sports gambling versus the prediction? There's a strategy. There's a strategy. When you walk into a billion dollar casino, obviously the reason you're walking into that facility is because a lot of people have lost a lot of money.

16:15And and there's algorithms that make sure that the house wins most of the time. And the difference between prediction markets in gaming is in gambling. If you start beating the house, they're going to show you the front door. That's not true with prediction markets. That's not true with Kelsey. We just put the buyer and we put the sellers together. One of the parties, though, can still be an algorithm. I mean, there are studies that have shown that there are bots that get in on and they get in front of. It's not that retail investors are bad at predictions markets. It's just that they are slow in placing their bets because the bots get in there beforehand.

16:53Is that much different from what you're talking about? First of all, I'm not quite sure what you're getting into here. you're getting outside my sphere of knowledge when you start talking about bots and all those things. But we're not talking anything different. We're not talking something different or not transparent. It's very, very transparent. That's the upside to the prediction markets is you know that that's going on. It's very consumer friendly. Take a look at what's going on with the World Cup right now. Twenty two billion dollars in prediction market bets that have been placed because of the popularity of it, because it's so consumer friendly, because it's so transparent, so on and so forth.

17:33So the right place to be right now and clearly the growth of this particular industry is playing out in front of our eyes. How about the notion that, you know, states are like, wow, we were counting on this, all these tax revenues we were going to get from from the gaming associations. And now everybody's using prediction markets. Meanwhile, are you walking around in like an overcoat and dark glasses? Are you still living in Nevada, Senator? Like I said, the gaming industry, they're all friends of mine. And that's fine. You might say that they they they they might say you're no friend of theirs anymore.

18:09Are you sure? Yeah, I'm not too worried about that. The gaming industry is going to be just fine. Las Vegas is going to be just fine. They've said this over and over again. Whenever a new innovative technique comes out that it's the end of the world, go to Las Vegas. Enjoy yourself. Prediction markets, again, is a completely different industry. I think the two can get along quite well. They do have beautiful structures and resorts, and something's paying for that. That's what people always say. Gaming has a lot of problems, but prediction markets is not their problem. OK. All right. We appreciate your time.

18:50And you know what? I like the opportunity to say Nevada over and over and over again. And for you to say it, because I mean, it's one of my biggest pet. When I hear someone say that, I'll correct them on air when they say. I'm not even going to say the other pronunciation because I respect Nevada's residents. Sure, you have a lot of fans from Nevada. Thank you. Because of that. Anyway, thanks, Senator. Coming up, what is America's top state for business? In a 50-way race, CNBC crunches the numbers annually. We'll take a trip to the heart of it all next.

19:39in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash marketupdatepodcast, or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. Thursday, July 16th, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for Game Plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment. Request your invite at CNBCEvents.com slash game plan.

20:16Welcome back to Squawk Pod. This week, we're celebrating 20 years of a very special list here at CNBC, the top states for American business. Our own Scott Cohn breadcrumbs hints across CNBC's programming in the days leading up to the reveal. And we all have some fun guessing which state takes the number one spot. Some consistently in the top five, Virginia, which has ranked number one six times since the project started in 2007, and North Carolina, which nabbed number one three times, including on last year's list. Let's get to it. Here is Joe Kernan and Melissa Lee having some fun with Scott Cohn.

20:50Today is the big reveal of CNBC's top states for business. Scott Cohn joins us now with a recap of the diabolical hints. I'm watching on on Calci now, Scott. and I think there might be a new leader, but I can't confirm it. Are you watching on Cal State? Because it makes sense. I know that there's some of that going on. I have stood totally clear on that. Some of that going on. I do not want to know. I don't know. I like the way you say that. I think I see North Carolina's up there. I'm told maybe that Virginia is doing better. I guess I'm not sure. But Virginia always makes sense to me because it's right next to D.C.

21:39And it's almost like, you know, a cell membrane, sometimes they're porous. Things just flow down into, you know, beneath the and all that D.C. money, that federal, you know, whatever you want to call it, just flows into Virginia. They won last year. There was a year before. Drive it over the Potomac. And there it is. Yeah. Yeah, it's right there. Who was it last year, North Carolina or Virginia? Last year was North Carolina. Virginia the year before. And the year before was Virginia. And Virginia, how many times has Virginia won? Virginia has won six times. Virginia is our most decorated state.

22:21Virginia was where this all started in 2007, and it's been back a number of times. And a lot of it is that dynamic that you're talking about. But also, they have a lot of good things going on there. We'll see how they do. Did he give it away? We'll see if that's where I am. What did he say? The hint yesterday on closing Bell overtime was, what was it, Scott? We end where we began. So let's go over all five of the Diabolicalists. Oh, yeah. Busted. Maybe that's why it's going on. Okay, go ahead, Scott. Sorry. We don't want to see you. Siren song? Siren Song was the one we did with you guys yesterday.

23:00It Takes Two, Changemaker, Stop and Go, and Ending Where We Began. The diabolical Mrs. Cone, we found out that he farms that out. Oh, really? Oh, she's the diabolical one. I was diabolical to begin with, but she's like next level. Whole other level. Hence the long, successful marriage that we try to outdo each other and diabolicity or diabolicism. Not sure. All right. 41 years. Yeah. No way. Really? Yeah. Oh, my God. You look good, Scott. You got me by a long, by 41. That's awesome. That's awesome. Congrats. You could make, I still want to make 70. I got to start cleaning up my act or something.

23:56Because I got about 50 to go. No, 40. 40 to go. We put all 50 states through their paces, 138 metrics in 10 categories of competitiveness. So after all that work, we're going to draw this out for as long as we possibly can, starting with those runners up. For 2026, our 20th year, let the countdown begin. State number five, Minnesota, the North Star State and the home of Minnesota Nice with America's fourth best quality of life and a world class infrastructure. But it comes at a price ranking 31st for cost of doing business. Number four, Texas, the Lone Star State, with America's top workforce, second-best economy, and access to capital.

24:47But with poor health care, high crime, and a lack of inclusiveness, Texas finishes 49th for quality of life. Number three, Virginia, the Old Dominion, with America's second-best infrastructure and fifth-best education. But Virginia's economy has suffered under federal budget cuts, and business costs are growing. Our top state's runner-up, North Carolina, the Tar Heel State, with America's top economy, even though the sharply divided state has struggled to pass a budget. America's third-best workforce, smart and growing. But those workers pay the price with a high cost of living, and a lack of worker protections is bad for quality of life.

25:30A shout-out to North Carolina, which has been either the number one or number two state in each of the last five years. And longtime viewers will note that each of those four states has been a top state at least once in the years that we've been doing this. A total of eight states have been top states for business. So will this year's state be a repeat, or will we add a ninth to the elite list of top states? You're teasing me. You're making me think it's Ohio. You're making me think it's Ohio. I mean, Ohio. Because they've been moving up. It's been moving up. Lots of infrastructure. I'm from there.

26:06The two O's. The two O's, first and last. Right. Two. It takes two, two hours. It's different. Thanks. Such a good question. See, now I'm really excited, Scott. And if you disappoint me, I'm not going to take that kindly. It should be. You know what I want you to do, too? This is my suggestion. And I will help you with it. Worst states for business. Bottom five. Well, we rank all 50 states. So they're already there. They're already there. There is a bottom state. But I want to play it up, and I want to really – and, you know, for Minnesota, I'm surprised that was there. You didn't even mention that might be the best state for leering centers.