The Warner Brothers Discovery Split & A Big Handshake with China 6/9/25

0:00Bring in show music please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. Trade talks with China kickoff. Kevin Hassett, top White House economic advisor, on what's at stake. Our expectation is that after the handshake, then immediately after the handshake, any export controls from the U.S. will be eased. And managing the broader economy. As the president floats again a preemptive suggestion of a new Fed chair while the current one is still on the job. Will the central bank be keen to cut rates sooner? If we get another inflation print this week that's about what we've been seeing, then I think there'll be a lot of pressure on the Fed to do that, but I respect the independence of the Fed.

0:43And breaking news, media moguldom is out. Splitting up, spinning off companies is in. Our David Faber on the news that Warner Brothers Discovery is becoming two companies. I think there's an expectation or a hope, certainly on the streaming side, that there There may be opportunities to be a consolidator. Not to be consolidated. Yes, not to be consolidated. Plus, the rest of today's news from London to Walmart to Los Angeles. It's the first time that you've seen a deployment of federal guards, of the National Guard, over the objections of a governor since the civil rights movement. It's Monday, June 9th, 2025.

1:22Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand Becky by in 3, 2, 1, cue it please.

1:55Dow's been up significantly. The Nasdaq's been up significantly. I think the Dow Transports, if you look at them, they're still about 18 % or a little more than that from their all-time high. But you've seen some massive retracement back towards the highs, especially for the S &P 500. If you calculate 49.81 on the low for the S &P 500, it's up 20%. Yeah. So it's joining the Nasdaq. To get back to those. Well, if you look to a bull market. If you want to call a bull market up 20%. I mean, there's a lot that goes into a bulldog. I'm standing. You're standing? Yeah, I'm kind of, I don't know. It's my back these days.

2:32I can't sit for three hours straight. I can't tell that you're, they got the camera all framed correctly. Yeah. Do you want me to? Stand as well? Yeah, you don't care. No, I don't care. Okay. I won't stand for it. Here, you feel better? I will sit. No, no, no, I say I won't stand for it. Oh, you won't stand for it? No, I'm fine with you standing. I'm sitting here. Fine with you standing. I think it might be worse for me. I might put my... I'm better, but it might put that above the... I'm ticker safe right now. You know, I've got those little things at the bottom, which kind of... It's good. Because you're not wearing pants.

3:07Because I'm not wearing pants. There you go. Trade... I'm wearing pants. Trade taking center stage this morning as Trump administration reps meet their Chinese counterparts in London. It's the NBC's... I mean, she's so used to all the convention and everything so formal in the UK. And look at that backdrop. Juliana Taddebomb. And Becky just said, I'm not wearing pants. And you have to deal with that, Juliana. Joins us now. Wish more. Good morning. Good afternoon. Whatever it is. Good morning to you. Still morning. Let me share with you what we know about what's taking place in London today. And we don't have a ton of detail here.

3:46We don't know the location or the schedule for today's talks. But we do know that senior officials from the U.S. and the Chinese delegations are meeting to discuss trade. Now, what's very interesting here is who will be attending these talks from the U.S. side of things. We've got the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, leading the charge alongside Jameson Greer, the U.S. trade representative. They led the talks in Geneva. But this time around, we've also got the addition of Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Commerce Secretary. And this is meaningful because he has oversight over export controls within the Trump administration.

4:19And this is where the focus is expected to be on these talks today, beyond tariffs on export controls, in particular around to China's exports of rare earth metals, these critical minerals that go into a number of sectors, from autos to chips to military equipment. And from the Chinese side, there's a big focus on U.S. export controls around advanced chip technology. So that's where the expectation is in terms of the focus of these talks today. As I said, we're still awaiting detail here. Both sides have been very tight-lipped around where and when these talks will take place. Yep. And it's in London, so we needed to go to you.

4:57And it looks kind of London-y over there. It's been like that all weekend here. We'll see. Let us – I don't know what to expect after the conversations last week. That was a reset, I guess, on the conversation last week. Last week. both sides accusing each other of not following the earlier... Supposedly, President Trump made some progress on the rare minerals and materials. Right. And I don't know whether... That's obviously what we're going to hear about. And we will also be able to... Thanks, Juliana. We'll also be able to talk about trade next hour with Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.

5:35he should be able to fill us in on what, at least what he's hearing and how to present it probably in a positive light. Yeah, right. A violent weekend in Los Angeles with protesters upset at the Trump administration's immigration crackdown and deployment of the National Guard to protect federal buildings. Several dozen people have been arrested. Protesters blocked a major freeway and set self-driving cars on fire. I think it was five Waymo cars that were attacked. Three of them were set on fire. Police used tear gas and rubber bullets to help control the crowd. Yesterday, California Governor Gavin Newsom asked the Trump administration to remove the National Guard.

6:18He called their deployment a serious breach of state sovereignty and said that the state would file a lawsuit this morning. On Truth Social, the president said Newsom and L.A. Mayor Karen Bash should apologize to L.A. residents for what he called their horrible job performance. It's very strange, isn't it? Well, it's the first time that you've seen a deployment of federal guards, of the National Guard, over the objections of a governor since the Civil War. I mean, since the Civil Rights Movement back in the 60s. Why does he have to tell Gavin Newsom to? It's hard to come down on the side of a violent world.

6:52That's what I'm talking about. Again, on these 90-10 issues, you see what's happening in LA. Even CNN is not saying mostly peaceful at this point. They had to actually say, I mean, and there's looting going on. So why does it have to, again, be some type of challenge to President Trump's authority to be able to bring order to what a place that obviously you need? If I were in L.A., I would want to be protected. If I had a business in L.A., I'd want my businesses protected. And if Newsom's not going to do it, then it just everything Trump does. It's like, no, the left will say no. just because it's Trump.

7:33I just don't know why this is controversial. I'm looking at the New York Times and the Washington Post, and I guess that's where you say exactly what you say. Oh, I didn't even read it yet. No, I didn't. It's hard to come down on the side. Where did you hear that it didn't? It's just anybody who looks at this, it's hard to come down on the side. No, where do you hear that it hasn't been since the Civil War that someone overrode a governor? No, the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s. Oh, okay. The Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s when they brought the National Guard. So they brought the National Guard.

8:03What is he supposed to do? And here's a market flash for you this morning. Mizuho naming Walmart its top consumer Internet pick and raising its price target to$115, the last tick for Walmart,$97.49. The analysts there saying that the multi-year rebuild into a much more tech-led player is working and that Walmart is about to close in on about 10 percent of all domestic online sales. That puts it number two, second only to Amazon. But that's a key number where they think that the channel is beginning to inflect with both the U.S. and global e-commerce running positive in the first quarter. And they also think that you could be facing some real points where the investments that they made really start to pay off from that e-commerce side of things, too.

8:52Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod, what will it take to get China's valuable rare earth materials? A big handshake and a short meeting. At least that's what Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett is expecting for the trade talks in China today. This was a very significant sticking point because China controls, as you know, something like 90 % of the rare earths and the magnets. And if they're slow rolling, setting those to the U.S. because of some licensing deal that they set up, then it could potentially disrupt production for, you know, some U.S. companies that rely on those things.

9:29Hassett joins us from the White House North Lawn. Yep, lawnmowers, everything. You'll hear it coming up next.

9:43Welcome back. This is Squawk Pod. You're watching Squawk Box right here on CNBC. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan. Andrew is off today. U.S. and China negotiators are meeting today in London for trade talks and to discuss restoring the flow of critical minerals. Join us now to talk about this in the economy. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. It's Kevin, good to see you. Episodic. This is the latest episode with you they're going to have right now. Last thing we heard, remember China, I think Scott Bessent sort of gave us the, I guess it was kind of bad news, that things are stalled.

10:26We weren't getting anywhere. Then we heard President Trump say, President Xi's tough, but I'm going to talk to him. Then they spoke and seemed to indicate that there was some progress made with what we just mentioned, the rare earth and the minerals. Is that where we are right now? Was it actual progress that can be put into an agreement? Oh, absolutely. You know, the president talked with President Xi for more than an hour. They went into many topics and also talked about the fact that in Geneva, we had agreed to lower tariffs on them and they had agreed to release the magnets and rare earths that we need throughout the economy.

11:08And they were kind of releasing them, but it was going a lot slower than some companies believed was optimal. And when we reached out to them again, we had another talk. And President Trump, being President Trump and a New Yorker, basically said, I want to meet again in the next few days, and I want a handshake that you promise you're going to release these things. And so really, the purpose of the meeting today is to make sure that they're serious, but to literally get handshakes from Scott and Howard and Jamison, our three lead trade negotiators and get this thing behind us. Could you expect this to bear fruit?

11:43You're not expecting? Yes, I expect it to be a short meeting with a big strong handshake and we'll see but that's what we're expecting. And then back to the negotiating table for some of the other things? For some of the other things. Was this the main sticking point that it was? Yeah this was a very significant sticking point because China controls as you know something like 90 % the rare earths and the magnets. And if they're slow rolling, sending those to the U.S. because of some licensing deal that they set up, then it could potentially disrupt production for, you know, some U.S. companies that rely on those things.

12:18And there are enough of those, like, for example, auto companies that President Trump took it very seriously, called President Xi and said, we got to get this stuff coming out faster. And President Xi agreed. Kevin, the alternative, China's perspective on that is that the import controls on semiconductors are equally problematic for Chinese companies that rely on these things. Is that going to be kind of an offset to say, OK, we'll get back on board. We'll let up on the rare earth minerals if you will go ahead and say the same thing on the semiconductors. Is that a tradeoff? Correct. Yeah, correct.

12:55So our expectation is that after the handshake, then immediately after the handshake, any export controls from the U.S. will be eased and the rare earths will be released in volume. And then we can go back to negotiating smaller matters. But I thought those were for security issues. We were worried about them using in military things. Is there some way to control against that and make sure that that doesn't happen? Well, it depends. Like the very, very high end NVIDIA stuff is not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about possible export controls on other semiconductors, which are also very important to them.

13:27But not the H2O or the H20? That would be a new thing. Water should be free. Kevin, talk India, will you? You have been on before. You've teased us. You haven't pleased us yet. Is that happening? They're staying. They wouldn't stay if just because they like to, I don't know, their hotel room or something, right? Right. You know, the fact is that I think that we spent the last week and a half getting the China situation under control, including having calls with President Xi and President Trump, sending our top trade team to London to finalize that deal. And we've got a whole bunch of stuff that's teed up to go next, and India would be top of the list.

14:15Talk about reconciliation and I don't know, you probably don't. You talked out about Elon and the president and Scott Besson and all that stuff. I think we're back talking about reconciliation and I think the Senate's getting serious. And, you know, John Thune, I think he's a great majority leader, but you might be jealous of Mike Johnson. Mike Johnson has pulled the rabbit out of his hat a few times. I think John Thune wants to show he can whip people around, too, doesn't he? Yeah, you know, I mean, there's the stage where basically senators rightly try to adjust the bill in their favor for the thing they care most about.

14:57And there are, I think, 53 senators that are doing that respectfully for Majority Leader Thune. You know, he's managing that along with Senator Crapo, who runs the Finance Committee. And we're certain that the Finance Committee is going to finish it up. The Senate's going to finish it up and we're going to have a big, beautiful bill by the 4th of July. And so there'll be a lot of modification here and there. But the president's priorities are redlined in the bill. Everybody agrees to that. And, you know, when we get it, Joe, don't forget, then if it fails to pass, then what it means is we have the biggest tax hike in history.

15:29And our Council of Economic Advisors estimates that GDP would drop 4 percent. And, of course, you'd lose millions of jobs and the deficit would go way up. And if we pass it, then we've done the estimate that we used last time when we said you'd get$4 ,000 increase in wages. It's$10 ,000 now. And so you got a$10 ,000 wage increase for the average American or a recession. That's what they're talking about in the end. And in the end, really, if they had to, Democrats would vote for it. We had the speaker on last week. And, you know, we had had Ron Johnson on earlier, who is compelling in a perfect world about getting back the spending, getting the spending levels back to pre-pandemic levels.

16:09Everybody, I guess, would like to do that. I don't know whether you could do it in one big, beautiful bill. But but then Speaker Johnson just said, you know, this is great. I love hearing all that stuff. Here's what I have. Here's this faction over here. Here's this faction over here. here's the margin that I have, here's what Majority Leader Thune has, it is what it is. It's not, there's no way it's going to be the perfect thing for everyone involved, because it's just not possible. You have to work within the parameters of who will vote for what. No, you're right, and I've spoken at length with Senator Johnson about it.

16:48I think I'm planning to have lunch with him this week. The bottom line is that I don't think he's going to hold up this bill but what he wants which we are absolutely willing to give him is a credible commitment to continue to cut spending after this bill and so the fact is that we've got rescissions from stuff that we've found at OMB and also with doge that will cut spending over the next year and a half outside of the reconciliation bill by about a hundred and seventy billion dollars just over about the next calendar year and so there's all this other stuff coming and I think that the budget hawks have seen the work that we've done that's going to give them rescission packets after rescission package.

17:26And so I think that in the end, the budget hawks are going to understand that this is a great bill. But don't forget, if we get 3 % growth, then that increases revenue by$4 trillion, which is way more than the deficit increase that CBO estimates for the cost of the bill. So this bill by itself is going to reduce the deficit, but we're also coming after spending big with rescission packages that we've been identifying so that we don't have to continue to fund the dancing of chipmunks and so on. Hey, Kevin, we get both CPI and PPI this week. Those inflation numbers will be very closely watched. The president on Friday after the unemployment rate came out, after the jobs report came out, suggested that we should see the Fed cut rates again.

18:05What do you think? First, on the inflation front, what you expect those numbers to be? And second of all, if you think the economy should see a rate cut from the Fed? Right. Well, right now, what we're looking at, you know, we've been on the show for many years talking about core this or, you know, services that. But right now, by every measure of inflation, it's down by more than it's been in more than four years. And so inflation has ticked way down. And I think that while tariff revenue went up so much, it went up about$60 billion over the last month, that the CBO put out a score that said that tariff revenue over the next 10 years is going to be$2.8 trillion.

18:46While the tariff revenue has been going up, inflation has been coming down, which is contrary to the story that everybody else has been saying, but very consistent with what we've been saying here on the show, that if they've got inelastic supply, they'll bear the tariff. And so I think that if we get another inflation print this week that's about what we've been seeing, then I think there'll be a lot of pressure on the Fed to do that. But I respect the independence of the Fed, but they're data dependent. And I think that the data, if they're consistent with the recent trend this week, then they'll have a lot of thinking to do.

19:15Hey, Kevin, I don't know if you've addressed this yet. You've got some Coinbase, a stake. How'd you get it? It's not bad. It's like a million dollars or something. When did you get it? Is it a conflict? Would you divest it? Have you talked about it yet on the record? I haven't talked about it on the record, But just a small company that some friends of mine and I started a long time ago was bought by Coinbase. And I still own the shares. In part, I didn't sell them because I didn't want any appearance that I'd be timing the sale or anything. But now I've got a report from ethics people and we'll look into what the next step is.

19:50And figure out what needs to be done. Meanwhile, I have recused from any matter that's related to crypto the whole time while that was going on. Okay. Are you mad? did I ask? You got to expect all that stuff. Anything goes, doesn't it, at this point in this world? I'm fine with it. I'm fine with it. Okay, good. We hope we'll see you again and maybe India someday. I know you'll be on immediately when that happens, right? Call us. Yeah, I'll give you a call. Okay. Next on Squawk Pod, a move in media that may just be a sign of the times. Another major conglomerate splitting up. CNBC's David Faber on the future of the company that became Warner Brothers Discovery, now tearing in half.

20:37You know, Peacock, obviously, and Paramount are seen as potential consolidation plays. But is Versant? Who knows? Versant is a potential consolidation. For the global networks business? I don't know.

20:57You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC, today with Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and somebody else on set. David Faber is here this morning. Well, well, well. Hello. And we do have some breaking news. Is this just for today? Just for today, my friend. Oh, so you're not... Okay. Not back forever. Okay. No. Not that you would... We'll always have the 90s. We'll always have Paris. We'll always... We will always have Paris. You were blue. The Germans were gray. Remember every detail. Speaking of movies, Give it to me. Warner Brothers Discovery is going to be splitting into two companies. No. That is the reason that I'm here.

21:33Yeah, not an unexpected outcome, perhaps, from any of its shareholders, of course. It was on May 8th that I had reported that such a split was near, and that announcement is now occurring. Warner Brothers Discovery is going to be splitting into HBO Max, its streaming service, along with its studio Warner Brothers. That is one company. And then what they're calling global networks. They don't have a name for either one of these things yet. We like to wait on the names. Versant is taken into global network sports, news, television, of course, all the cable networks. They're over the air. European business as well.

22:13International markets are big in Poland, for example. Bleach Report. All of that goes on the other side. Obviously, that is where the bulk of the cash flow from the company currently comes from. And it is also where the bulk of the debt in this split will go. The total indebtedness of the company as of last quarter was$34 billion. The leverage ratio down to 3.8. Most of the debt will be going with that unit that produces most of the free cash flow. And the other part, of course, will be seen as, they hope, a growth business as well. Last quarter, HBO Max, the streaming service, did somewhere in the range of about$340 million in EBITDA.

22:51The hope is it'll get to about$1.3 to$1.5 billion this year, along with the studio scene to get as high, perhaps at some point in the not-too-distant future. It's$3 billion, so you put that together. You hope that's growing. You don't put a lot of debt on it. Now, a couple of things here that were not sort of previously reported on, at least by me. One is that the global networks business is going to own up to 20 % of the streaming studio business, And that is something that it will allow it to sell fairly quickly, I'm told, perhaps as soon as over the first year once the deal closes. And so that will be another way that the company can deleverage.

23:30The other is they're going to try to pull off a very large tender offer with their bondholders. And for doing that, they have borrowed under a bridge loan$17.5 billion from J.P. Morgan. And they will be immediately tendering to bondholders at a discount, obviously, but at a premium to the current trading price of many of these bonds, which are trading at a more significant discount. And at the same spread that they were issued at, by the way, in the hopes of vastly reducing their overall debt profile and taking away any potential power those bondholders perhaps are seen to have in terms of saying or putting up some difficulty.

24:08Now, there is not an expectation on management's part that there are any indentures or anything here in terms of the ability of the bondholders to actually do something that would stop the deal in some way, but they also want to significantly reduce the overall interest payments, debt load. Then you would replace the bridge loan guys with secured debt as well, which would be senior to any debt holders who were left. So you've got what was expected to be the split in many ways, at least we've been expecting that. By the way, David Zaslav will run the incoming streaming studios business. Gunnar Wiedenfels, who's currently the CFO of the company, will be the CEO of Global Networks.