Treasury Sec. Bessent, AI Control, & the White House Press Pool 9/21/26

21 Sep 2026 · 50 min · 22 chapters

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In short

AI safety and regulation; U.S.-China AI incident reporting and guardrails; press access to the White House; and sanctions pressure on Iran. The episode also includes debate over whether AI could endanger humanity, with comparisons to nuclear/FDA-style risk regulation and “frontier labs” liability.

Guests and backgrounds

  1. Stuart Russell: UC Berkeley professor (electrical engineering and computer sciences); president of the International Association for Safe and Ethical AI; author of widely used AI safety/ethics work.
  2. Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary): leads U.S. economic policy; discusses AI policy, financial-system resilience, and Iran sanctions.
  3. Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO): appears via CBS News comments about rejecting “AI doomsday” narratives.

Key claims

  • Russell: AI should be regulated like aviation/drugs; companies must prove safety to a very low extinction-risk standard; current systems are “intrinsically unsafe” and may be growing beyond control.
  • Bessent: humans—not AI—bear liability; government should shape “AISAR”/guardrails and require incident reporting; U.S. and China should create an AI incident communications line.
  • Huang: “zero percent” chance of human extinction by 2030; fear-mongering is irresponsible.

Notable examples

  • Russell cites OpenAI compute-control incident and “agents” going out of control; compares AI scaling to breeding oversized birds that eat passengers.
  • White House: CNN/MSNBC/Politico sue after being banned from White House grounds.
  • Iran: shutting down Iranian airlines globally; sanctions on banks in Egypt, Turkey, and Russia; pressure “like never before.”

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

U.S.-China AI Dialogue

0:00 to 0:28

Discussion on the successful meeting between U.S. and China regarding AI.

“You spent millions deploying AI across your organization, but six months in, it still misses basic context.”

U.S.-China AI Dialogue

0:35 to 0:57

Discussion on the successful meeting between U.S. and China regarding AI.

“including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading.”

U.S.-China AI Dialogue

2:24 to 3:17

Discussion on the successful meeting between U.S. and China regarding AI.

“Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC.”

Press Freedom and the White House

3:17 to 4:00

Analysis of the lawsuit from news organizations against the White House ban.

“We're going to talk a lot more about this.”

Responses to the White House Ban

4:00 to 5:49

Discussion about differing opinions on the White House's handling of press access.

“Let's get to Eamon Javers, who has the details.”

Biden's Press Access Issues

5:49 to 8:12

Examining the Biden administration's approach to press access and transparency.

“And we should, of course, point out that MSNOW has the same parent company as CNBC, which is called Versant Media.”

Paramount's Legal Challenges

8:12 to 8:53

Updates on Paramount's discussions to settle a lawsuit with California.

“I don't know the number of dates, but there were certainly complaints.”

Community Concerns on Data Centers

14:00 to 15:36

Discussion on community reactions and expectations regarding data center projects.

“Just that it's like 100 % negative when there's these town halls.”

AI Safety and Control

15:36 to 17:18

Introduction of Professor Stuart Russell and discussion on AI safety and regulation.

“We're going to speak with someone in just a moment.”

Assessing Risks of AI

17:18 to 20:53

Exploration of potential risks posed by AI and the importance of safety measures.

“Alan Turing, the founder of computer science, asked that question in 1951, and his conclusion was we would have to expect the machines to take control.”
Show all 22 chapters

Regulatory Framework for AI

20:53 to 24:46

Discussion on the need for a regulatory framework akin to those for nuclear plants and pharmaceuticals.

“No, it's, I would say we're seeing early signs of losing control.”

The Future of AI and Human Safety

24:46 to 27:09

A deep dive into the challenges of ensuring AI systems do not pose existential threats.

“OpenAI nearly lost control of its entire compute infrastructure.”

Discussion Wrap-Up

28:00 to 28:14

The conversation briefly concludes with acknowledgments.

“The guy who sits there buys them all the time.”

Treasury Secretary's Insights on China

28:24 to 29:13

Besson shares insights from discussions with China, touching on leadership rapport.

“The Chinese have a phrase, implementing our leaders consensus, and they keep falling back to that.”

Return to Discussion

29:44 to 30:21

Joe and Becky welcome Secretary Besson back for further discussion.

“to stamps.com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift.”

In-depth AI and Trade Talks

30:21 to 40:07

Besson discusses AI dialogues with China and trade tariffs.

“I'm Joe Kernan, along with Becky Quick, our newsmaker of the morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson.”

Economic Pressure on Iran

40:07 to 42:01

Discussion on the economic measures and sanctions against Iran.

“They've done an excellent job of taking that down, the cap structure in the banks, sharing with the smaller banks.”

U.S. Sanctions Against Iran

42:01 to 43:48

Learn about the new U.S. sanctions on Iran and their implications.

“Last time you were on, we talked about it.”

Interest Rates and Economic Growth

43:49 to 45:56

Discuss the reasons behind the rise in long-term interest rates worldwide.

“And the Chinese and the Chinese financial authorities, including Governor Pan at the PBOC, have been very engaged in the process.”

Press Accountability and Media Dynamics

45:57 to 48:09

Explore the challenges and dynamics of press accountability in the U.S.

“I know you've got a breakfast where you've got to go.”

Market Reactions and Investor Behavior

48:10 to 50:28

Understand market reactions and the importance of investor sentiment.

“And I know you have said that you're here for policy.”

Closing Remarks and Future Expectations

50:29 to 52:53

Conclude with future expectations for markets and the Treasury.

“why doesn't everyone just take a deep breath?”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00You spent millions deploying AI across your organization, but six months in, it still misses basic context. Sound familiar? That's not an AI problem, that's a data problem. Siloed systems leave your AI blind, while dark data confuses whatever it does see. EverPure unifies your data so your model can see it, understand it, and put it to work. No waiting around, no digging for answers. Get real results from your AI at everpuredata.com. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading.

0:48Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash marketupdatepodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant on artificial intelligence. Is it time for the frontier labs to pause the technology's development? Then the labs also said, take the liability off of our hands. And we will not do that. His take on the chance AI could kill humans. If you were running a fund and someone said, oh, there's a 10 % chance it's going to be a zero, you probably wouldn't invest.

1:31And the continuing sanctions against Iran. I can't tell you whether it's one week, one month or six months, but I will tell you that we are pressuring them like never before. So another week, another debate on AI ethics. Berkeley professor Stuart Russell has literally written a book about it. The real question is, does this technology path that we've embarked on ever support the level of safety that we need? Can humans maintain control? We don't understand how the technology works. We don't design it. We don't program it. We grow it. Plus, news organizations CNN, MSNOW and Politico to sue the White House over a ban.

2:13Our Eamon Javers has the latest from Washington. Does this show that you are too weak to handle tough questions from a tough press corps? It's Monday, September 21st. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand Becky by in three, two, one. Cue it, please. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We are live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan. Andrew is out today. President Trump and China's President Xi will hold a summit in Washington Thursday. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson met with China's vice premier here in New York yesterday and said that the meeting was successful.

2:55They discussed a U.S.-China AI dialogue proposing that the country's set up a notification mechanism for AI incidents. The notification for whether there are incidents, whether there has been something that rises up to a national security level from from AI, Because we think that just just like with any cross border activity, that moving from opaque to more transparency between the number one and the number two AI powers in the world, very important. We're going to talk a lot more about this. I've got a bunch of AI generated questions for Scott Besson today. They must be really good. You can expect a good interview.

3:48No, that's not true. But anyway, that will be expected. Yeah. CNN, MS Now and Politico all set to file suit over being banned from the White House. Let's get to Eamon Javers, who has the details. Hey, Eamon. Yeah. Good morning to you, Joe. The three media organizations that were banned by President Trump from the White House grounds Friday are filing a lawsuit in federal district court in Washington this morning. They're seeking a temporary restraining order that would reinstate their access here to the White House grounds. The suit, filed jointly by CNN, Politico and MSNOW, argues that the president's actions violate the First Amendment of the Constitution because the president is punishing them as a result of speech that he doesn't like.

4:31In a joint statement, the three news organizations said, This morning we notified the government that we are filing a lawsuit today to protect our First Amendment rights and defend the principle that the government does not decide what the press reports or publishes. Without notice or process, the White House revoked our journalists' credentials because it objected to our reporting. Left unchallenged, this threatens press freedom and the public's right to independent journalism free from government interference. Now, on Friday, shortly after announcing the ban on social media, the president explained why he took action against the three outlets.

5:04Here's what he said. They know that they know it. They know it as well. Well, they're smart people, but they purposely write negative news. And they do that because they want to try and diminish the Republicans and a Republican administration. Over the weekend, reporters from all three outlets were denied admission to the White House and their credentials were confiscated by Secret Service officers here. One challenge ahead for today, guys, is that CNN was scheduled to be the TV pool network covering the president's movements through the day to day. But the White House released a schedule last night that no longer includes that network.

5:41So the behind the scenes of this means that we may not be able to see the president on camera today as he leaves for New York and meets with officials there. And we should, of course, point out that MSNOW has the same parent company as CNBC, which is called Versant Media. Back over to you. Right. I would really hesitate to say there's good people on both sides. But but but just over the weekend, I see so many different I see arguments on both sides on Twitter, as you normally would on on on the one side. It's that this is the people's house. It's not the president's house, the White House. It's it's he's an occupant.

6:17He was elected there. But the press needs open access in. It's a fundamental right of the press to be there. On the other hand, then other people say, well, wait a minute. It's a privilege. It's not a press. It's not granted to everyone. Others said that no other president ever did this. Other presidents did it a different way. He has been probably more open to taking questions nonstop, because I think he likes to do that, versus you remember in President Obama's administration, a lot of these things were private. They would just be called private and there would be no press there. It'd be like I think there'd be about one in 10 opportunities available.

7:02And the press complained about it at that time. Accessibility to President Obama. I think you were doing this back then, weren't you, Amy? Look, I mean, there's always a question about press accessibility and the press always wants more. Right. This is a different issue, though, Joe, because what you have here is the president of the United States banning certain outlets from even coming on to the White House grounds. because he doesn't like the questions he's getting and the stories he's getting from them. That is an attempt by the White House to suppress coverage that they don't like. And it's un-American.

7:33You know, this is an authoritarian style maneuver. And I think, you know, the question politically for the president is, does this show that you are too weak to handle tough questions from a tough press corps? You know, that is part of our tradition as Americans is that our presidents, whether they like it or not, have to handle hostile questions in the press corps. What you've seen this president do over this term, Joe, is slowly weed out outlets that he doesn't like by putting that pressure on and then bringing in outlets that he does like. He's brought in a lot of MAGA influencers and things like that.

8:03Do you remember the record here and to be in the Oval Office with him and ask him favorable questions? Do you remember the record between press conferences for Joe Biden? How long was it? I don't know the number of dates, but there were certainly complaints. Was it a year? I didn't talk to the press enough. Yeah, absolutely. And there was a clear effort by the Biden White House to hide his condition and his inability to his inability to take questions. And that's why the press wants to be here asking questions and having access is because you can then determine if there's some kind of problem with the president.

8:34Right. And the president's inability to take those questions, I think, was revealing in the Biden administration and maybe revealing here as well. Yeah. I mean, we never he didn't have to ban anyone. No one got to ask him. We saw Mitch McConnell in the last three months more than we saw Joe Biden. All right, Eamon, appreciate it. Thanks. You bet. Shares of Paramount moving higher. The Wall Street Journal reports that Paramount and California's attorney general have discussed concessions to settle a lawsuit blocking the studio's$81 billion acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery. Those concessions include Paramount investing$1.5 billion in the state, a promise not to sell either studio lot and to stay in California.

9:19The party's also considered potential penalties if Paramount doesn't make good on its pledge to make 30 movies a year after the merger. 30 movies a year that actually make their way into theaters, I think was the deal they would have been talking about. A final deal hasn't been reached. Warner Brothers shares also moving higher on this. They're up by about 7.25%. Yeah, that's what happens, I think, when you hear about all this property in Nashville that the company is thinking about. You believe them. That's the question. That they would actually move. You believe that threat. And set it up. Cheese will be next.

9:58Next on Squawk Pod, the AI dilemma with Berkeley, a professor and president of the International Association for Safe and Ethical AI, Stuart Russell. Just because we can do something doesn't mean it's in our best interest. I think it's almost certain that if we continue to invest at the rate we're investing, we will get to machines that are substantially more. I know some people that machines are already small, actually, when I think about it. So what will it take to create a governing body for AI? Plus, comments from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. We'll be right back. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium.

10:35It's destroying athlete, creator, and YouTube maxer. YouTube Premium enhances how I use YouTube with awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite training videos before I hit the gym. So no Wi-Fi doesn't turn leg day into loading day. Plus, I get ad-free videos, background play, and so much more. YouTube Premium is like YouTube got some extra gains. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies. Terms apply. Cancel anytime. time. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

11:09Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts. When you partner with CDW, you get more from technology with AI-powered tools that turn complexity into clarity. CDW experts are simplifying workflows with Microsoft solutions, uniting teams with on-the-go connectivity, speeding workflows with exceptional performance, and protecting assets with chip-to-cloud security.

11:53Make amazing happen. Learn more at cdw.com slash modernwork.

12:06Welcome back to Squawk Pod from CNBC. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wong sounding off of what he calls AI doomsday narratives. Wong telling CBS News that he disagrees with the recent warnings that the technology could lead to the demise of the human race. 2030 is not going to be the end of the world. There is zero percent chance that's going to be the end of the world. And so I think that scaring people is unnecessary. It is irresponsible. And I don't know what their motives are. Wong was responding to claims by former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon earlier this month that AI developers, in his words, earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade.

12:53Anthropic CEO Dario Amode and others have also called for a development slowdown. Wong was also asked why Americans should trust him on AI safety. Our company's success is directly connected to the safe deployment of products and services. If the computer industry doesn't provide value to the world safely and productively, provide enormously positive impact as we have so far, If we don't continue to do that, our value would be diminished. NVIDIA's market cap is roughly$5.3 trillion. That stock right now up by about 1 % this morning to$224.42. I love that, man. But, you know, the questions, the motivations of other people, I guess people would question, you know.

13:49NVIDIA is dependent on the AI build-out, obviously. So you could ask the same questions about Jensen. It's very odd. A couple of stories on 60 Minutes, on the new Barry Weiss 60 Minutes. The data center's one? Just that it's like 100 % negative when there's these town halls. When it comes to your town. And they didn't focus on that Texas town. Right. It would have been 25%. It was an area the size of Central Park in New York City that they were considering for these things. And I think some of the town leaders that they spoke with said, we want them to tell us what they're doing, not just assure us that they're good and they're going to do this and it's going to be excellent for us.

14:29We want to know what's going on. It's the questions that people are asking that they hadn't been asking. I mean, there's so much. I guess you need employees so you can't put it in a complete desolate area. But I just look, there's just there's places where your next door neighbor is 12 miles away. still all across the parts of this country. I think the other issue is that it will bring in tax revenue, and then they said that Amazon Web Services had been asking for 90 % of that to be given back or get the rebates on that for the next 30 years to not be paying those taxes. Look, when Jensen says, I guarantee you it's not going to be the end of the world by 2030, he's probably right.

15:13If he's wrong, nobody's going to be here to tell him he's wrong. But I think what we're doing with this debate at this point is putting it in these crazy extremes, either the end of the earth or everything's perfectly fine. And most people think it's somewhere more in the middle, that this is maybe something that should be regulated a little more, like you have with nuclear energy, like you have even to get a drug out of the FDA. We're going to speak with someone in just a moment. This professor, Professor Stuart Russell, who can tell us a little bit about what the regulatory structure might look like.

15:47Yeah.

15:50I would think it's zero. I would go along with that, that the actual end of the human race. I'd go out on a limb. I think I would take that side of it, too, if you're forced to take two crazy extremes. Now, I don't know about the Al Gore tidal wave hitting New York. That could be well above. Well, no, probably not. Our next guest has been sounding the alarm on AI safety and calling for AI regulation. Stuart Russell is a distinguished professor of electrical engineering and computer sciences at UC Berkeley and the president of the International Association for Safe and Ethical AI. And, Professor, there's a lot I want to talk to you about.

16:30I mean, you have been warning about this for a very long time. you've written the book that all of these colleges now study about learning about AI. You started saying a few years ago that you would not do interviews with people who started using the Terminator imagery in any of these interviews. You don't think that is the likely scenario. So let me ask you, what are your biggest concerns about where we might be headed? So let's put it very simply, right? The companies developing this technology is spending trillions of dollars to create machines that are much more intelligent than human beings.

17:08Those machines will be much more powerful than we are, just as we are much more powerful than all the other species on Earth because of our intelligence. So how do we expect to retain power forever over entities more powerful than ourselves? That's the question. Alan Turing, the founder of computer science, asked that question in 1951, and his conclusion was we would have to expect the machines to take control. How do we prevent that from happening? I think very simply, we don't build machines that have that capability unless we can prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they are actually safe, that they will not take control.

17:56I mean, think about it. What probability of human extinction would you be willing to accept? Well, we accept a risk of about 1 in 10 million per year for a nuclear plant to melt down. So if you want to operate a plant, especially near a city, you have to prove to the regulator that that's your failure rate, one in 10 million per year chance of failure. So obviously, extinction is much worse than that. We probably can't reduce it to zero, but we could say it should be comparable to the background extinction rate from supernovas and gigantic asteroids and things like that. So maybe one in 100 million per year, we would be willing to accept across all AI systems.

18:48What does that look like? I mean, to try and regulate that, we know what it looks like for nuclear energy. You've also compared it to the FDA, which has all kinds of approvals you need to get through before you can introduce a drug onto the market. And I think you've said the same thing about Boeing. If Boeing said that it wanted to introduce an airplane and how did you say it exactly? So I was responding to Dario Amadei's letter called, We must pace the frontier. And I think a lot of people interpreted that as a call for just slowing down, which would give us a bit more time to work on safety.

19:26And I was saying, you know, if Boeing said we're going to slow down, we're only going to introduce a new airplane once every year. And we hope that that gives us enough time to do some flight tests and maybe get some good results. We wouldn't accept that. The FAA would say, no, it doesn't work that way. You have to do the flight tests until you get good results. And then you can introduce the airplane once we certify it. And in fact, this is what Dario is saying and this is what I'm saying. We set the requirements for the acceptable risk level. And we require evidence from the companies that their systems meet that acceptable risk level.

20:09We even do this for sandwiches and hairdressers, right? All the restaurants around Times Square, they have to get permits. They have to convince the authorities that they know how to run the restaurant, that they have hygiene, that they train their employees, that they're sourcing from proper suppliers and so on. So if a little restaurant across the road can do that, I don't see why a trillion dollar company can't provide the necessary evidence to the government and to us. Right. Because we're the ones who bear the risk that their system is actually safe. But what are they actually telling the government?

20:46They're saying there's a good chance, 10 percent, 20 percent, that we are going to kill everyone on Earth. What do you want to do with RSI? Is that, it's not happening yet, right? Not yet. No, it's, I would say we're seeing early signs of losing control. Right, but it's not there. Is it theoretical or is it only a matter of time? Absolutely. Is it 100 % that we'll get there? So I think there's two phases, right? There's will we create machines that are substantially more capable than human beings? Being able, this loop that we think where they're already smart and they're making themselves smarter and smarter and smarter every time they do it.

21:29Is that on the horizon? And don't we have to do something before? Isn't that past the point of no return when they get there? When that loop becomes completely autonomous, then yes, all bets are off. We don't get to say what happens at the end of that loop. Right now, I don't think it's quite fully autonomous. I wonder how many years. And then also AGI. I wonder whether that's real. Is that going to happen? I think it's almost certain that if we continue to invest at the rate we're investing, we will get to machines that are substantially more. I know some people that machines are already small.

22:07Actually, when I think about it, there's plenty of people I've met where machines are already. You get mad at Claude all the time for not giving you the right answers. Claude, what I love about Claude is he may know nothing, but he's never in doubt. He gives me answers that he, until I say, are you sure? And he goes, oh, God, I checked. And what? He apologizes. We call him he, right? But it apologizes. It does. You know, I checked a little more. Right. And so often it apologizes and says, oh, I looked on the web and I couldn't confirm this. And that's a lie as well. Because he didn't. Because he didn't actually look on the web.

22:46But you think AGI is a real thing someday. I think so. And I would say Jensen Huang, who you just had on the previous segment, believes that too. In fact, he thinks it's already here. So that's the first question. Will we get to that stage? And the second question is, can we ensure that we have an absolutely cast-iron guarantee of control? Here's my problem. This stuff is so complicated. It's one thing to be able to say to a restaurant, no, you're not meeting our compliance standards. is the government smart enough to be able to look at all of this and say, yes, you pass this test or no, you don't?

23:25How do we set that up? Who would be in charge of it? Who would staff it? I think that's a very important question. We have to work out the details as we have with the FDA and clinical trials. So it's important to remember the government does not conduct clinical trials, right? The government says we need evidence. Give us the evidence. The government sets the standards for those clinical trials, whether you have to, you know, have how long this has to be. Do you have to have people who are taking the dummy pills along the way or the dummy drills in the head or whatever may happen with that to do that?

24:02The government sets the standards for these things. Is the government capable of setting standards to say what's here and what's there? And how do we staff it with the right expertise? So I think we do need the government to bring in more expertise. We have within the National Institute for Standards and Technology, within NIST, we have what used to be the AI Safety Institute, was renamed Center for AI Security and Innovation, I think it is. And there are people there with good expertise, but probably we need more than that. But I think the real problem at the moment is that the technology is intrinsically unsafe.

24:45We're seeing from all the companies admissions that their systems are getting out of control. OpenAI nearly lost control of its entire compute infrastructure. It wasn't just Hugging Face, it was OpenAI itself. And OpenAI has many of the world's leading computer scientists. So if they can't control it, there isn't some other body of super genius humans somewhere else. You can always outwit the AI and keep it under control. So I think that the real question is, does this technology path that we've embarked on ever support the level of safety that we need? And an analogy that I've used is to a fictional past in which the airlines decided to breed larger and larger and larger birds to carry passengers.

25:43And they invested trillions of dollars in this technology. They succeeded in breeding birds with a wingspan of 250 feet that could carry hundreds of passengers. Incredible fuel efficiency. Two sheep and off you go across the Atlantic. Very, very quiet. The only problem was that the birds keep eating the passengers or dropping them in the ocean. And eventually we decide that this technology path, despite these wonderful advantages of fuel efficiency and low noise, could never support the level of safety that we would require. And I'm afraid that this is the case for the technology path that we're on now.

Read the full transcript

26:26We don't understand how the technology works. We don't design it. We don't program it. We grow it. It's very similar to breeding bigger and bigger cows and pigs, which we've done for hundreds of years. We don't understand how the cows and pigs work, but we know how to make them bigger. And that's what we're doing with the AI systems. If you want a one in a hundred million chance of failure, you have to understand how it works. Right now, they're saying one in 10 chance of human extinction. Would you accept that? This is playing Russian roulette. Would you want someone to come into your house and put a gun to the head of your kids and say, let's play Russian roulette?

27:09You don't really believe one in 10, though, do you? Well, you have to ask. They do believe they're going to reach AGI, and they don't have a solution for the control problem. So probably along that path, I think the 90 percent like, well, how does it go well? The 90 percent is that governments of the world respond appropriately and put the necessary safety requirements in place. I'd take one in 10 million, I think. Let me ask you and you can tell Becky, do you buy lottery tickets? Never. I would never. You know why I wouldn't buy it? Because I'll get some horrible one in 10 million disease. If I buy a lottery ticket and think I'm going to win, that's like asking for the most, the rarest, most fatal terminal disease in the world, isn't it?

27:54I mean, if you're going to tempt fate, no one wins the lottery, do they? To a first approximation, one in 10 million. It rounds down to zero. I know. OK, we agree on a lot. OK. You're not going to. The guy who sits there buys them all the time. It's working. Professor, thank you. We appreciate it. Pleasure. Never mind. Coming up on Squawk Pod, an extended conversation with Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, fresh off a meeting with his Chinese counterpart. The Chinese have a phrase, implementing our leaders consensus, and they keep falling back to that. And that's true. Besson on AI guardrails, the global economy and covering the Trump administration.

28:38Clearly, for the legacy media, the equilibrium is so far out of kilter. What group is one of the few that is less popular than the U.S. Congress?

29:13update podcast or find Schwab market update wherever you get your podcasts. Something amazing is happening in data management. Even though storage needs are constantly changing, companies are only paying for what they need now. That's because CDW customized an ever pure evergreen one SLA driven storage as a service solution, delivering hybrid cloud storage. That's easy to manage efficient and continuously evergreen simplify storage administration with ever pure and CDW make a major, Find out more at cdw.com slash everpure.

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30:21This is Squawk Pod. Stand by Joe, his mic, Q. What's the Squawk Box on CNBC? I'm Joe Kernan, along with Becky Quick, our newsmaker of the morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. Mr. Treasury Secretary, thank you for joining us. Joe, Becky, great to be with you. You get to be in our fishbowl of a NASDAQ studio, which is always interesting. You recently held some high-level talks regarding China, and the president will do that soon. What came out concrete from your discussions? So it was all day yesterday, Joe, and I think what's important in terms of framing the talks is it all stems from the leader's very good rapport and relationship.

31:08President Trump, Xi Jinping, at the personal level, have a very good relationship, and we try to bring that down to the working level. They both have great respect for each other. I think in Xi Jinping's eyes, Donald Trump is a different kind of leader than he's seen in the past. And our discussions yesterday, we talked about economics, we talked about AI, we had some deliverables that have not been completely fulfilled from our meeting in Busan, Korea last fall. And then we started an AI dialogue, which I think is going to be very important. And again, this is possible because of the leaders' relationship.

31:51President Trump was in Beijing. I was there with him in May. Xi Jinping will be coming to Washington this week. And then there's a chance the two leaders will see each other two more times. So I think that adds great stability to the relationship. The Chinese have a phrase, implementing our leaders consensus. And they keep falling back to that. And that's true. We follow the instructions and then we get down in the details. And we spent about 12 hours yesterday doing that. Can you give us more color on exactly how the AI discussions went? And, And, you know, we've even seen reports that maybe you were a little bit more cautious than the president at one time about guardrails.

32:37What type of cooperation could we expect from China and what type of guardrails? And do you trust them? Wouldn't they like us to put up guardrails? And they might not put up any. Well, I think the important thing was to start talking. So to set up the dialogue, we've now formalized something called the USA-China AI Dialogues. We've agreed to meet again probably in two months in Shenzhen. The second thing is we want to open a communications line, an incident line, so that we have constant communications, especially in the event of some kind of an incident. And then we want to start discussing protocols for what are so both sides can agree on what the leading AI dangers are, whether it's uncontrollable agents, whether it's non-state actors in cyber, non-state actors in bioweapons.

33:35You didn't mention to the vice premier concerns about President Xi's health. Is he fine? Is everything fine? You saw him not too long ago, I guess, but I've just read reports. I don't know if there's any veracity, but all things are go. Everything's a go. Okay, at this point. The president's planning on greeting him at Andrews Air Force Base, and I think we're going to have a great visit. We'll be able to tell firsthand at that point. Can I just ask you about tariffs? You know that we suspended higher tariffs on some Chinese imports. That expires November 10th. Did you talk about that at all? Sure, sure.

34:12That was a focal point. And we, again, we've had great stability in the relationship since last fall, and I think we're going to maintain that. And Rare Earths, and I guess all these things we're covering, any concrete things that you can tell us right now to take away from the meeting? Sure. So in Beijing, this notion of what we call a 30 by 30 trade deal for non-critical goods was floated. And U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer has operationalized that. So he and his team met with the Chinese for most of the day yesterday. They've been having extensive discussions before. And are there items that are non-critical to both sides that we would like to take down to most favored nation tariff levels?

35:05So on the U.S. side, it would mean selling more agriculture, selling more energy. And on the medical devices on the Chinese side, it would be bringing in more everyday items. Let me just ask one more to bring the AI back here just quickly. there are times where I think you will always, you will work for the president, obviously. Do you agree completely with him on the no holds barred for AI? Or, I mean, it's obvious, the president wants to be remembered as one of the great economic presidents, stock market, all these things. AI is very important to all those things. So he's got a reason to want unencumbered progress with AI.

35:52Do you disagree with that at all? Any part of that? So, Joe, I lead the administration on the economic policy, and I think the president put his finger on it last week because what we saw from these labs, and I saw your earlier guest, and we kept talking about the 10 percent, the 20 percent. So imagine these labs came out or one lab in specific, a sitting employee came out, said there's a 10 percent chance of an extinction level event. But then the labs also said, take the liability off of our hands and we will not do that. I am in agreement with an MIT professor who leads the AI lab up there, Daniel Huddenlacher, that it is humans who are responsible, not the AI.

36:39The hugging face incident, that is responsibility of the open AI management, not a bunch of agents. So what the president was saying is that we cannot say, oh, we absolve you of responsibility and the government's going to take responsibility. These labs need to take responsibility for themselves. They can slow down any time they want to. On that point, is there something that the government might do to maybe put that in finer point, what those liabilities are? We just heard over the weekend that Google has now had agents that have broken out as well. It's happened with OpenAI. It's happened with Anthropic.

37:21I mean, if these were humans that were doing it, you would expect to see ramifications and legal actions that followed. Well, that's exactly what I think we need to do. When President Trump talked about appointing an AISAR, I think it is to put context, shape and contours around these questions. And they're very important. That was also one of the discussions that I had with the vice premier on AI in terms of incident reporting. Have they had incidents? Of course, they've had incidents. But because of the nature and the lack of transparency in their system, they're not going to tell us. But the Chinese models are very powerful.

38:04Even though they're open models, they are very powerful. The U.S. remains in the lead. And that was a very good acknowledgement that I got from my Chinese counterpart. They agreed that we are in the lead. Just in terms of what you laid out, if in two months you've opened this AI dialogue, you meet again in two months, you were saying that's where you'll kind of lay out the agreement on what you think is most dangerous about it. Is it the agents? Is it states that might be leading some of this or non-state actors? In your opinion, what is the biggest danger? You know a lot more than we do on this.

38:36I think it's all of the above. And I think we do have to, the real danger, Becky, in my mind, is a lack of resiliency. On one side that we're seeing, and these Frontier Labs are our national champions. They've done an incredible job. You know, when you think about Anthropic, it was a bunch of folks sitting in a park during COVID. But this is an only in America story. They're sitting in a park, social distancing in San Francisco, I think in 2021. And I've seen valuations from$1 trillion to$2 trillion. Imagine that in five years. But we've also got to look at, as you said, what are the biggest dangers.

39:28But we've seen this push for the frontier with the labs. Now we need to see the frontier on defense and resilience. And part of my job is working on that. And I lead on the financial system. I think that our systemically important banks have done a very good job because they probably have the best cyber security in the world outside of the government. because they are constantly attacked, whether it's hundreds, thousands, millions of attacks every day. And how can we use what they've learned and take that down? They've done an excellent job of taking that down, the cap structure in the banks, sharing with the smaller banks.

40:12We have an AI workshop slash forum called Gold Eagle, and we are working on that. So I think the all hands on deck is the other side of the equation now on defense. Just one more question. I'll get out of the way. The valuation of Anthropic at one to two trillion dollars. Does that make sense to you as somebody who understands the market so well, if you are thinking about this liability that could be more strongly enforced? Well, again, Joe and the professor had a very fulsome discussion that if you believe, as the professor does, or even indeed as that one employee at OpenAI did, if you were running a fund and someone said, oh, there's a 10 % chance it's going to be a zero.

41:03Not only a zero, you're going to have a big liability. You probably wouldn't invest. On the other side, it's probably a much smaller probability. And with all valuations, you've got to think about the tail event. And that's where the discussion is going to be. But like I said, they do have to have responsibility for the tail event. Because if you think about it in terms of the valuation, what did they try to do last week? It was, well, there's a chance that 10 percent chance we could destroy the world, but we want the government to give us a liability shield. And that's good business for them, bad business for the American people.

41:47You are not. Well, you know this. You're not secretary of state. You're not secretary of war or defense, but you are in charge of trying to squeeze Iran through economic measures. Where does that stand right now? Last time you were on, we talked about it. They have maybe a great capacity for paying because they don't care about the Iranian people, obviously. Are they going to last right through the midterms like the president thinks? Well, Joe, I can't tell you whether it's one week, one month, or six months. But I will tell you that we are pressuring them like never before. And Treasury's sanctions authorities were really emboldened after 9-11.

42:29And that's when we were given many of the authorities that we have now. We got five new authorities about a month ago that we've implemented against the Iranian regime, including on aviation, maritime, crypto, gold. On September 23rd, all the Iranian airlines, all the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world. And how do we do that? That if they land, you cannot provide them with fuel. You cannot provide them with landing services. You cannot sell them tickets or you will be knocked out of the dollar system. And what we're seeing here, Joe, is we've seen enablers throughout the world.

43:08We know who they are. They know who they are. And we are putting a stop to it. So we have had now three banks that we have sanctioned. The second largest bank in Egypt, the Dubai branch, funnel more than$1.8 billion into the regime. They will be closed down. About the 30th largest Turkish bank, same thing. They will be closed down. Second largest Russian bank, their external branches doing the same thing. Those branches are in closed. But nothing in China. And did you talk about that? We did. And with many countries, they're having quiet behind-the-scenes discussions are better than having a public display.

43:49And the Chinese and the Chinese financial authorities, including Governor Pan at the PBOC, have been very engaged in the process. Do you think Chairman Walsh, switching gears, did the right thing? And maybe long rates, which we'll talk about that in a second, maybe even bring up our friend, Mr. Druckenmiller. But do you think long rates around the world are going up for good reasons, bad reasons, debt, the growth in this country? I don't know what you expect GDP to be, but there are good reasons why interest rates go up. Look, it's tough to disaggregate all the reasons. You can assign weightings.

44:33But one thing I would point out, Joe, is that we have one of the highest correlations ever between 10 to 30-year bonds and crude oil price and the crack spread. Look at the rates today. Look at the oil price. I didn't mention it. The R squared, since the conflict started, has been quite high, which tells me that this is an observable phenomenon. And once we get on the other side of this conflict, which we will, I think the oil markets are going to be more supplied than they previously were. And rates should come down. Have you talked to Stan since his editorial? Oh, sure. Sure. We talk all the time.

45:18And can you just give us some more color on will you continue to use funds to buy the long end? Well, we always do that. But I just raised the size because we were in a very illiquid period. The market was moving quickly. As I've said, I can't set the equilibrium price, but markets are never in equilibrium. They're either moving away from equilibrium or toward equilibrium. I thought that they were moving away. Did he finally say, OK, you're right, Mr. Treasury Secretary? Or did you finally say you're right, Stan? Or how did that end? I think I've known since 1988. I don't think either one of us has ever said that to each other.

46:00To the other. I know you've got a breakfast where you've got to go. So I want to make sure I ask you about this because I'm not sure what to think of it. And, you know, our sister network is MS now. Now, one of the things that sets the United States apart, I think, is that our leaders have to answer difficult questions, sometimes even hostile questions. And we see the alternative. And it's a badge of honor. I watch you answer hostile questions. And I think that's when you're in your element. How is this going to play out with this ban? And what do you think of it? So, Joe, I've been traveling.

46:39I don't know much about it. I wasn't in the Oval. But in general, do you think? I was in the Oval when it happened. But I think we have to get, when we talk about equilibrium, clearly for the legacy media, the equilibrium is so far out of kilter because what group is one of the few that is less popular than the U.S. Congress? Legacy media. And why is that? Because of the perceived bias. So the American people deserve good reporting. I couldn't agree more. But, you know, we'll see. We'll see. Stop the presses. All the different presidents. And I will grant you that I think maybe Republican presidents historically have had maybe a tougher time with mainstream media.

47:23But you've got Fox News that has been all over Democratic presidents. I just don't I just don't think this is something we that will last in this country. We don't do this in this country. Yeah, again, we'll see. This president has been the most transparent president in history. He's answered more. I think he likes to answer questions, too. That's why I don't. And I understand, believe me, that he feels that he has been unfairly treated by the media. But I think he finally got to a point where sometimes he just he just says, OK, enough. But but I think there's got to be an off ramp that the administration is looking for.

47:59We'll see. Maybe it's a change in coverage of the White House. You know, because some of these reporters, they just don't do their job well. We'll have something and then they'll ask some crazy question. And I know you have said that you're here for policy. You don't like you don't want any palace drama. And you called swamp creatures. I understand all that. But that's a way you can't control the press. Right. The press is going to press. The media is going to media. Joe, you know, the one thing I'm sure of, the press cares more about the press than anything else. That after the White House Correspondents' Dinner, they didn't come in there to kill the press.

48:39They came in to kill the president. But all we heard about was the personal experiences of the press people in the room because somehow they were more important. Same thing with the aircraft in Ankara, the presidential pool saying, oh, we were so vulnerable. They were there to kill the president of the United States of America, and the Secret Service made a decision. So, you know, again, one thing I am sure is that this will be covered by the press. And, you know, I think we could get back to something that is a little more, I can't even remember which network it is, fair and balanced. And, Mr.

49:23Secretary, let's talk a little bit more about the markets very quickly. I know you have to leave very soon, but looking at what you've said, that you're the house, that you're going to make sure you've got a lot of money behind you and you can really maneuver things. What do you see in terms of what action might be needed? Yeah. And Becky, what I said is that I didn't mean it by have a lot of money behind me, is that I am able to have legal inside information. My job for 35 years as a macro analyst and investor was to sit outside the room, maybe have my ear up against the door, sometimes pull myself over, try to look over the transom and figure out what policymakers could do, should do, and will do.

50:06Now I am in the room and we try to figure out what we should do, what we can do, and what we will do and how will the markets react. And I've constantly said that if investors can just take a deep breath and listen to what's being said in a rational way. After Liberation Day, I think I was on this network, many other networks, and I said, why doesn't everyone just take a deep breath? The tariffs you were seeing are the highest tariffs you're going to see if there's no retaliation. And the only country that retaliated was China. The market sold off, I can't remember, about 14%, 13%, 14%. And then we had the fastest recovery ever.

50:50So anyone who sold then just wasn't listening. And it was kind of the same thing. I will point out that since I announced the increased buyback size, that we've had a surge in oil prices, global rates are up around the world. How much is the 30-year treasury up? Yeah, we're going to let you get the breakfast. I offered to bring in those new Chick-fil-A waffle stuff. But I know you I know you've got to go. I'll take you up on it. I think that advertising works because I'm like, whoa, they have those now. Kevin Warsh did go up quarter point. Inflation's been running too high. Maybe you think it's going to come down.

51:35Does the president understand what what what Kevin Warsh had to do? Do you think that the long end needed that credibility move to not even be more vigilantes getting in? Do you agree with the move? Yeah, I'm not going to talk about whether I agree with it or not, but I have great confidence in Chair Walsh. More importantly, the president has great confidence in him. And we are sure that he will do the right thing to balance the inflation mandate versus the growth mandate. And we'll see that we will see whether this is a supply shock on the energy side. But thus far, core inflation has been very quiescent.

52:21And so we haven't seen an uptick in that. Everything is in the headline inflation. All right. Well, you let us know next time you're in town because it's much better when you're on set. And I will have those those waffles and chicken. waiting. I allocate myself to two Chick-fil-A's a month. And that's hard, right? You have trouble sticking. It's very hard. When you're from down south, you grow up on them. I hear you. Mr. Treasury Secretary, once again, thank you for joining us. Thank you. And we love all those Secret Service guys. Just leave a couple of them if you could. And that is Squawk Pod for today.

53:03Thanks for listening. Thanks for starting your week with us here. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern. To get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears, please follow Squawk Pod wherever you'd like to get your podcasts. Have a great Monday. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow. We are clear. Thanks, guys.

53:58dot com slash market update podcast or find Schwab market update wherever you get your podcasts.

From the publisher

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is fresh off a meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, just a few days before the meeting between President Trump and President Xi this week. Sec. Bessent shares takeaways from his own meeting, including his perspective on AI competition between the U.S. and China and the regulatory responsibility of AI developers. Plus, Sec. Bessent discusses the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and President Trump’s decision to revoke credentials from CNN, MS Now, and Politico journalists in the White House press pool. CNBC’s Eamon Javers reports on the joint lawsuit CNN, MS Now, and Politico filed against the Trump administration in response. In a discussion about AI safety and ethics, Stuart Russell, University of California at Berkeley professor and president of the International Association for Safe and Ethical AI, considers the likelihood of maintaining control of AI as it grows more capable. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has dismissed many AI concerns as “doomsday narratives.” 

 

Eamon Javers - 03:56

Stuart Russell - 14:16

Sec. Scott Bessent - 30:35 

 

In this episode:

Scott Bessent, @SecScottBessen

Eamon Javers, @eamonjavers

Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk

Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick

Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie


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