In short
This episode of Squawk Pod (July 6, 2026) focuses on the launch of “Trump Accounts,” new savings/investment vehicles for children under 18, plus a broader discussion of U.S. politics, sports, and AI markets. The centerpiece is the Invest America program: every child gets an account at birth with an initial $1,000 invested in the S&P 500, with compounding; families and companies can add money via gifts and contributions. Key claim: it’s “not a program” but a platform enabling the “largest unlock of direct philanthropy” in U.S. history.
Notable examples
SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell gifting two million shares of SpaceX to about two million kids; Invest America founder Brad Gerstner citing tens of billions in commitments and a goal of $100B.
Guest
Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital founder/CEO and Invest America founder, a Silicon Valley investor involved in making the accounts happen.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOTrump's 250th Birthday Speech
0:00 to 0:24
Discussion on President Trump's speech focused on patriotism and voting restrictions.
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Trump's 250th Birthday Speech
0:30 to 0:58
Discussion on President Trump's speech focused on patriotism and voting restrictions.
“the award-winning trading platforms loaded with features that let you dive deeper into the market.”
Trump's 250th Birthday Speech
1:54 to 2:45
Discussion on President Trump's speech focused on patriotism and voting restrictions.
“Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC.”
Controversy in Soccer
2:45 to 3:30
Exploration of President Trump's influence on FIFA and a controversial red card.
“We're not going to let this happen to us.”
World Cup Betting Insights
3:30 to 4:27
Analyzing the rising interest in betting during the World Cup.
“He was given the penalty for what appeared to be an accidental foul stepping on a player from Bosnia.”
Soccer Game Highlights
4:27 to 7:11
Hosts share highlights and opinions on recent exciting soccer matches.
“CNBC and Calci have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”
Celebrity Wedding Coverage
7:11 to 10:26
Details surrounding the star-studded wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey.
“Buzz around luxury giant LVMH this morning.”
Celebrity Wedding Coverage
10:32 to 10:57
Details surrounding the star-studded wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey.
Discussion with Trump on Investment Accounts
12:00 to 14:00
Interview with President Trump discussing the launch of Trump Accounts for financial literacy.
“You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC.”
Introduction to Trump Accounts
14:00 to 15:10
Discussing the benefits of Trump's investment accounts for children's financial literacy.
“There's bell ringing, there's NASDAQ button pushing, all kinds of things happening from the White House, I think, this morning as well.”
Show all 22 chapters
Celebrating Trump's Investment Accounts
16:00 to 17:46
Brad Gerstner explains the significance of the new investment accounts and the contributions made.
“And not only is it real, Brad, but one of the major transformations is something you've been working on behind the scenes for the past couple of months that led to Gwen Shotwell's donation over the weekend.”
Encouraging Corporate Participation
17:46 to 19:10
Brad discusses efforts to encourage corporate donations to the investment accounts.
“But it shows the flexibility of this platform.”
Accessing and Contributing to Accounts
19:10 to 21:45
Explaining how families can contribute to their children's investment accounts easily.
“Every account has a QR code associated with it.”
Legal Considerations and Philanthropy
21:45 to 23:48
Discussion on legal frameworks and potential for transformative philanthropy with Trump's accounts.
“Today's a big celebration, a big milestone.”
AI and Market Perspectives
23:48 to 26:52
Transitioning to a discussion about AI's impact on businesses and market sentiments.
“It's all upside for the kids of America.”
Addressing Concerns in AI Development
26:52 to 28:00
Exploring concerns about AI models and their implications for corporate America.
“open source models, both the models out of NVIDIA, which are terrific.”
The Competitive Landscape of AI Platforms
28:00 to 29:14
Explore how AI platforms like Figma and Anthropic are navigating competition.
“The board member leaves Anthropic or leaves Figma.”
Growth Expectations in AI Investment
29:14 to 31:08
Discuss the contrasting views on the future growth of AI and its impact on investment.
“And I'm certain that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build some apps of their own.”
The Future of AI IPOs and Wealth Distribution
31:08 to 33:18
Delve into the upcoming IPOs for AI companies and the discussion on fair wealth distribution.
“If you look at the trajectory that Anthropic is on, I think it could be as high as$100 billion of revenue by the end of the year.”
Government Involvement and Corporate Philanthropy
33:18 to 36:38
Analyze the role of government in corporate philanthropy and shareholding.
“What do you think about Sam Altman's plan to donate effectively five percent of the entire company to the country in some way?”
AI Competitors: A Market Overview
36:38 to 38:49
Evaluate the competitive positions of various AI companies and their future prospects.
“You mentioned what XAI is doing, what Elon is doing.”
AI Competitors: A Market Overview
39:05 to 39:59
Evaluate the competitive positions of various AI companies and their future prospects.
“Choose Power Home Remodeling and remodel how you think about remodeling.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Your data lives everywhere. On-prem, in the cloud, across apps. Bring it all together with EverPure, the platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security, and innovation without ever slowing you down. Sophisticated enough to anticipate your ever-changing data needs, yet simple enough to feel like second nature. Tame your data chaos with EverPure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business. Visit everpuredata.com to learn more. Trading at Schwab is now powered by Ameritrade unlocking the power of Thinkorswim the award-winning trading platforms loaded with features that let you dive deeper into the market.
0:36Visualize your trades in a new light on Thinkorswim Desktop with robust charting and analysis tools all while you uncover new opportunities with up-to-the-minute market news and insights Thinkorswim is available on desktop, web, and mobile to meet you where you are. It's built by the trading obsessed to help you trade brilliantly. Learn more at Schwab.com slash trading. Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod. Trump accounts savings vehicles for kids officially launched on America's 250th July 4th celebration. One of the orchestrators, Silicon Valley investor Brad Gerstner.
1:17This is not a program. This is a platform. It is the largest unlock of direct philanthropy in the history of the country. A template to bring the American dream back down to Earth. Gwen Shotwell's gift this morning, an extraordinary gift. Two million shares of SpaceX to two million kids. They'll hold in their accounts over the course of the next 10 to 20 years. Plus the rest of today's news that got us squawking. Red card drama. Well, let's try and win. And an affair to remember. A royal wedding in New York City. It's Monday, July 6th, 2026. Squawk Pod begins right now. Stand Becky by in three, two, one.
2:00Cue it, please. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Squawk Box right here on CNBC. We are live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. President Trump marking the nation's 250th birthday over the weekend in a speech on the National Mall that was delayed nearly two hours by some bad weather. the president mixed appeals to patriotism with some of his themes from the campaign trail, calling for new voting restrictions and a listing of achievements. On Friday, the president delivered a similar speech from Mount Rushmore, where he warned that communism is a threat to American liberty.
2:40Communism is a mortal threat to American liberty. It is the greatest threat to our country, including World War I, World War II, Pearl Harbor, or even 9-11. We're not going to let this happen to us. It's the enemy of the Constitution. Above all, it's the enemy of July 4th, 1776. 76. U.S. soccer, star soccer forward Fuller and Balogun is going to be available to play in the team's round of 16 match tonight against Belgium after FIFA suspended a red card. It was given last Wednesday. It came after President Trump reportedly asked the soccer organization to review the red card. He was given the penalty for what appeared to be an accidental foul stepping on a player from Bosnia.
3:36MS now confirming that President Trump called FIFA President Gianni Infantino about the penalty. An official said the U.S. government provided additional evidence to FIFA on true social. President Trump wrote in his words, thank you to FIFA for doing what was right and reversing a great injustice. The Belgian Football Association said in its words it was astonished by the reversal. European soccer's governing body is expected to comment later today. We're also learning more about high interest in wagering on the World Cup. Dune Analytics says the Calci saw more than$31 billion in notional trading volume last month.
4:19That's up more than 70 percent from May. PolyMarket's international event contract exchange set a record high in monthly volume in June. That reversed a downtrend that was seen in April and in May. CNBC and Calci have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Today's big Calci market is the United States versus Belgium game, which takes place tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern time. Users see the United States with a 52 percent chance of advancing versus 48 percent for Belgium. Belgium's an excellent team, ranked number nine in the world, and it has beat the United States team in the past.
4:59I've watched a lot. I got a little bit disillusioned watching France and Paraguay because it was such a great game in terms of the defense that Paraguay put up. And I didn't think that was a penalty either. And then, you know, you give it to Mbappe or whatever. Of course he's going to win. And then they win that way. And it's like, OK, France moves on. And I was surprised. Paraguay just took it all in stride. That's the way it works, I guess. It can be a penalty kick. I will say we were watching. 90 minutes of watching that, and a penalty kick determines it. Yeah. And we watched the Cape Verde versus Argentina game.
5:39That was an unbelievable game down to the end. The idea that Cape Verde or Cabo Verde, whatever you call it, could have potentially taken out the team that Messi's on for this whole thing. I mean, that was maybe the best game that I've seen through the entire world. And yesterday was amazing. I can't believe I'm saying, no, Norway. Oh, Norway upsetting. It's Brazil. That guy, he looks like, I mean, he looks like he's got this Viking. I mean, he looks like a Viking. And he scored both goals, or at least scored two. Two of the goals. Two minutes. Yeah, two minutes. That was a really phenomenal match as well.
6:18in Brazil, you know, they can't they can't even I think they're in shock. And then tonight, I'm glad the guy's playing. We need the guy but, you know, and the original foul I know, the original foul was not a foul. The red card. Right, it shouldn't have been a red card. No. But then, this has never been done where it's in 1962 I was going to say, there was precedent, but way, way back. Well, let's try and win. Now that we got the guy back, win. I don't think we should be sulking around, oh, God, we're getting an event. Go try and win. If you win the whole world or if you get to the quarterfinals and then go beyond that, it's like people love a winner.
7:10And, you know, now that you got this, got him back, hopefully he scores three goals tonight. Buzz around luxury giant LVMH this morning. This follows the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey at New York's Madison Square Garden over the long weekend. The couple reported to have worn Christian Dior haute couture because that couture. Dior is one of the famous brands owned by LVMH, along with others like Louis Vuitton and Marc Jacobs. The couple's shoes coming from Christian Louboutin with Swift saying that Swift said to have worn jewelry from Cartier. Comedian Adam Sandler apparently was the surprise officiant at the ceremony.
7:54Wedding wedding planner. You know, the whole the whole thing, despite not wedding, wedding singer. Why did I call wedding planner? Despite celebrity star power on hand, that included, by the way, Bradley Cooper, Karla Klaas, Steven Spielberg. We have yet to see any official photos from inside the venue, though there are a lot of A.I. pictures. I don't know if you've seen. And then maybe friend of the show, Adam Aaron, I don't know if you saw, seems to have posted a whole thing about the wedding and then seemed to have taken it down with all sorts of interesting description about what they had done to transform the inside of the garden with pink carpets and all sorts of flowing things, apparently you never really realized you were, it was done so well, supposedly, that you wouldn't even know you were inside the garden, which is pretty amazing.
8:46That would be the hope, right? Well, I've always thought to myself, how could you even do a wedding inside the garden? What would that look like? They must have taken over the garden at least for three days, given the load in, maybe even four days think about the cost of that um is kind of an extraordinary extraordinary thing one way to prevent cameras from getting in there though uh but cameras everywhere on the outside i mean they they they they they shot everybody coming in and out of the wedding and uh and all that so a royal wedding in new york city initially i was thinking if i had my choice where to get married at like msg would be like dead last but i guess if you get if it's going to be a spectacle than you.
9:30It was a big wedding. A thousand by a thousand plus people. I thought it might be a head fake that they just pretend to be there somewhere else.
9:42Cheese will be next. Coming up on Squawk Pod, the big SpaceX donation, shares from COO Gwynne Shotwell to the Trump accounts newly launched, and an extended conversation with a Silicon Valley veteran and investor who helped make these accounts happen, Brad Gerstner. Remember, when Apple built iOS, they also built a mail app and a calendaring app and a browser app called Safari to compete with Google. They built a lot of apps of their own, and I'm certain that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build some apps of their own. Is it stealing? It depends on who you ask. I don't think that's stealing.
10:18I think the history of Silicon Valley is a history of competition like that. We'll be right back. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade unlocking the power of thinkorswim the award-winning trading platforms loaded with features that let you dive deeper into the market visualize your trades in a new light on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools all while you uncover new opportunities with up-to-the-minute market news and insights thinkorswim is available on desktop web and mobile to meet you where you are it's built by the trading obsessed to help you trade brilliantly.
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11:59Welcome back. You're listening to Squawk Pod from CNBC. Before the long holiday weekend, our Joe Kernan sat down with President Trump to discuss a range of issues, like today's launch of Trump Accounts, investment vehicles for American children under 18. Here's part of that conversation. Have you spoken to Elon since he became a trillionaire? I haven't. No, I wrote him a note. I said, congratulations. Very good. I have a very good relationship with Elon. Elon and I had a little dispute because he backed me 100 percent. He liked me. He still likes me. But I did a little thing called the electric mandate.
12:36We're not going to have an electric mandate where everybody has to have an electric car, where your beautiful son standing over there is mandated to have an electric car. if he wants gas-generated or gasoline-generated or a hybrid. And I made so many speeches, and Elon was there for many of them, and I'd always say, we will not have the electric band-aid. But when I actually did it, Elon was not thrilled about that, and I can understand it, but he's doing good. He's moved on. Do you think, if you talk to him about donating SpaceX to something you might want to talk about, or donating SpaceX stock to Trump accounts?
13:15Well, I think that he will do that. Micron, which is a great company, that's still did it. Michael Tell is a fantastic guy. He did$6 ,250 ,000. And that was part of my conversation with President Trump last Thursday. Earlier this morning, SpaceX President and COO, Gwynne Shotwell, posting on X, writing, my husband and I are honored and thrilled to participate in the Invest America program and gift a share of our SpaceX stock to a Trump account for each of more than 2 million children across our great nation. And later this morning, we're going to speak at length with Altimeter Capital CEO and founder of Invest America, Brad Gerstner.
14:00There's bell ringing, there's NASDAQ button pushing, all kinds of things happening from the White House, I think, this morning as well. I mean, I will say it's a great plan to do this. Again, from the investment tool perspective, from financial literacy for kids, from the idea that you're teaching them to save, from the idea that this is a long-term retirement account that you can set up for them, I don't see any downside at all to this. And it's a great opportunity. I think it's just at a time where it just shockingly we're questioning capitalism versus socialism, that if you get everyone involved with the stake in capitalism, other than just transfer pay or whatever we've done in the past, I think this is for financial literacy and just to have some skin in the game and to have something when you turn 18, actually have something built up.
15:01I think it's great. And to encourage long term investing because you're stuck in it. I mean, that's the whole point of it, which is which is the point and a half. Right. We're going to talk to Brad a little bit later. Also understand how Gwen and others may or may not donate. There's a whole question about that, which is a separate issue about how they're doing that, given the way the law is is written. And it'd be fascinating just to understand how the Treasury, because we reported that the Treasury was debating this, but they had come down back then on the side that they that the statute didn't allow them to do it.
15:35And now they're doing it. So trying to understand how that happens is going to be interesting.
15:42Trump accounts are kicking off on Saturday, July 4th. And our next guest was instrumental in making it happen. I want to bring in Altimeter Capital founder and CEO, Brad Gerstner. He is a founder of Invest America. Congratulations to you. I know we've been talking about this for a very, very long time and it is now official. It is real. And not only is it real, Brad, but one of the major transformations is something you've been working on behind the scenes for the past couple of months that led to Gwen Shotwell's donation over the weekend. Yeah, incredible to be here, Andrew. Thanks for having me.
16:15You know, I remember coming on Squawk Box three or four years ago when we first started talking about this. And, of course, last July 4th, the president signed the Invest America Act into law as part of the big, beautiful bill that created an investment account for every child at birth. You know, every child gets on their phone a little share of Microsoft and NVIDIA, etc. That started on Saturday. You can gift into these accounts. every child forevermore born into this country under the age of two is going to get a thousand dollars invested in the S &P 500 that can compound for their lifetime.
16:48If you start with a thousand dollars as you know and that is matched and you add just ten dollars a week that's fifty thousand dollars for every child at 18. This makes real the promise of the American dream not for some but for everybody. Every child a shareholder in the upside of America. So today is a big celebration. We're going to have the first ever, first ever joint bell ringing by the NASDAQ and NYSE and the first ever remote bell ringing from the Oval Office at 930 Eastern Time. So it's a great celebration. We've got incredible CEOs from Michael Dell to Ryan McInerney and across the spectrum who've joined the Invest America CEO Council who are giving huge contributions of their own.
17:28And of course, you mentioned Gwen Shotwell's gift this morning, an extraordinary gift. Two million shares of SpaceX to two million kids that they'll hold in their accounts over the course of the next 10 to 20 years. And when they're 18, they can hold on to the shares of SpaceX or sell those shares. But it shows the flexibility of this platform. This is not a program. This is a platform. It is the largest unlock of direct philanthropy in the history of the country. One of the things you've been working on, I know tirelessly behind the scenes also, is trying not just to get individuals to donate, but to get companies to match.
18:07Where are you in that? I know a whole number of big companies have signed on thus far. But where do you see this going over the next, call it, 12 months? It's incredible, the outpouring of support. You know, I've said many times, America is the most giving country on the planet. and the last year has definitely affirmed my belief in that. The president asked Michael Dell and I to go out and raise$100 billion for these Trump accounts. And we're well on our way. We've already have commitments of tens of billions of dollars into these accounts. And I would say across corporate America, across the business round table, across the S &P 500, our hit rate must be over 90%.
18:46Everybody wants to participate in this. But here's the key. This is not just about the largest companies in America. You know, take Altimeter. We have 36 employees at Altimeter. We have about 85 kids of those employees and we're going to donate to every one of those kids accounts. This is for every small business, every local restaurant, every landscaper, every contractor, every medium sized business and every large business. We make it really easy to add money to these accounts. Every account has a QR code associated with it. All you have to do is Apple Pay or use a debit card, and you can transfer money into any of these accounts.
19:22And so we hope that, you know, working with the Small Business Association and many others, that we're going to expand this. And it's already starting to take off among not only the largest companies in America, which, of course, you know all the incredible names, right, from NVIDIA to Salesforce, from Dell to iHeart, but to all businesses in America. Yeah. Hey, Brad, there was a question I think that was raised about, you know, for a family that's thinking about putting their own money into these accounts, which I think is a big part of this to get the sort of compounding effective at longer term.
19:54You know, should you put money into, you know, if you if you only had a choice between this and a 529 account or you're thinking about funding your 401k, how should should people at home think about that? Yeah. Well, first, Andrew, we have about 16.8 million 529 accounts in America. And 90 plus percent of those are with people in the top 10 percent of income. So 529 accounts, which is a college saving account, is perfectly good. But the fact of the matter is it does not fulfill the president's Main Street agenda. The Main Street agenda is for the 75 percent of families that today feel like they're left out and left behind, like the American dream is escaping them.
20:33We're going to get every single one of those families into the game. right and so I hope that over the course of the next few months we're going to be auto creating with the social security administration 70 million accounts for every kid under the age of 18 so that we can get this money into those accounts and and get it compounding and for moms and dads here's what I would say to you you know even we've done lots of studies all cohorts of Americans want to see their kids do better if it's five dollars if it's ten bucks it's as easy as double clicking Apple Pay on your phone. Most families have this.
21:07You can Venmo money into the accounts. We want to make it frictionless for friends and family and parents to contribute a few bucks at a time into these accounts. Every time money hits these accounts, Andrew, it's automatically swept the next day into the S &P 500. So they will be fully invested in the greatest companies in America, compounding in the upside of America, true direct ownership. This is not a government program. These are individual private accounts for 70 million Americans, hopefully over the course of the next few months where they own the best companies. They own NVIDIA and Microsoft and Apple and Walmart, et cetera.
21:43And so we're well on our way. Today's a big celebration, a big milestone. And, you know, hopefully we'll we'll see a lot of people get on board. One more on Trump accounts, and then we want to get your sense on the markets and AI and everything else. But, you know, the thing that you've been working on the past couple of months to try to get, you know, big investors like a Gwen Shotwell. The president mentioned last week that he thinks potentially Elon Musk could donate SpaceX shares as well into these funds. And then the individual who receives those would then be what would hold on to this, that actual stock itself.
22:20I want to understand how that happened. And I ask because I know there was a big debate inside the Treasury Department about whether the big, beautiful bill technically allowed for it. The language in that bill said that eligible investments were strictly, quote, any mutual fund or exchange traded fund. And the idea, I think, was to make sure that those investments were, quote, unquote, diversified. There is this other catch all language and maybe that's what they're leaning on. But I'm sure you've been reading all that language and I know there's debate about it. So I wanted to understand it.
22:48Yeah, no, it's a great question. The last thing anybody wants is crony capitalism. We don't want the government picking and choosing stocks, which is why the legislation required that any cash into the accounts automatically swept into the S &P 500. But the legislature gave broad authority to a whole group of categories, which included gifting. So only shares gifted into the accounts can remain as shares. Any cash that comes to the account has to be going into those index funds. And so if you look at the broad exclusionary language, the 530A accounts established, it basically said these have to be treated like 408A accounts, IRA accounts, except were otherwise determined by the Treasury Secretary.
23:33And the Treasury Secretary, obviously, IRA accounts never contemplated gifts from folks like Michael Dell or Gwen Shotwell. So we had to come up with a set of rules. The Treasury Department promulgated those rules. The president tweeted about it last week. I was very happy. I'm telling you, the idea that Warren Buffett could give a share of Berkshire Hathaway to every kid in America, that Elon Musk could give shares of SpaceX, that Sergey Brin could give shares of Google, this idea will unlock transformative philanthropy and get everybody into the game. It's all upside for the kids of America.
24:05So I'm thrilled we're heading down this path. Also wanted to get your thoughts, Brad, though, on where we are in the AI, if we call it cycle boom, what you want to describe it as. But I wanted to get your reaction really more than anything to Alex Karp's comments on our air last week, which I know have caused a lot of conversation in the Valley. He said that he believes that a lot of CEOs, corporate CEOs around the country are upset with some of the big LLMs and anthropic open AI, thinks they're overcharging, thinks they're stealing from them. These people are livid. They're like, I am paying for tokens that create no value.
24:46These people are stealing the weights and alpha of my business, and they're creating a wealth tax that does not help the poor. It just punishes, starts with the billionaires. Every single person at this table is going to be paying a wealth tax only to punish us. And the reason for it is because these models have been completely over, irresponsibly overselled. And the sell is it's dangerous for everyone, which is why I can give it to all your adversaries. But I can't give it to the Department of War or I can't safely give it to an enterprise in this country without being certain that the alpha of that business could transfer to this model tomorrow.
Read the full transcript
25:21I know you've been, you know, an advocate and an investor in these big businesses. So I wanted to get your view on it. Well, I'm a huge fan of Alex and I think Alex made some really good points. But I would say this, you know, follow the money. The revenue growth of these companies is the fastest revenue growth we've ever seen in the history of technology. That continues unabated in May, in June, and into July. So if they're really upset with the companies, then I don't think they would be using the product. So two things can be simultaneously true. Alex is right. It's really important that we support open source models in the U.S.
25:56So for those companies that want the choice of open weights and open models and controlling that part of the stack, they're able to do that. But for the vast majority of companies, they want the best. and the best frontier models, the American thoroughbred models, right, are going to be open AI and Anthropic and X, you know, with Elon, maybe Gemini in the mix, et cetera. And so we want the thoroughbreds to run. We want those models to do great. I give huge credit to the White House, Secretary Besant, Howard Lutnick, et cetera. When they disabled Fable, we went through a process. We got it back online quickly.
26:32We need Americans' models, both open source and closed source running as fast as we can because the preeminent race is the race with China. We must stay ahead of China for both economic and national security reasons. And I think we found a good balance here. But I don't think it's either or, Andrew. It's both. We need to support American open source models, both the models out of NVIDIA, which are terrific. We've got Misha and the team at Reflection that are building some great things and our closed source models. And I think insofar as Chinese open source models are concerned, we just want to make them play by the same set of rules.
27:08We do not want them distilling our models, taking our IP and then competing against us for free the way that they dumped steel on the United States. Make everybody play by the same set of rules. I'm confident if we do that America's models will win. And I think that we're in a pretty good position right now coming out of the recent discussions. So I think part of the The question, and by the way, some of the all in guys raised this over the weekend as well, is it's not necessarily fully about whether China steals our IP, which I think is a big question, but whether the models themselves are stealing IP from corporate America.
27:43So the big example is Figma, for example. This is a company that partnered with Anthropic. One of the board members from somebody who worked with Anthropic was on the board of Figma. and Anthropic goes into the design world with Claude Design just two or three days beforehand. The board member leaves Anthropic or leaves Figma. Figma had no idea. And I think the argument is that companies like a Figma that even partner with an Anthropic or what have you, or others that are partnering may ultimately lose their business because the large language models will effectively try to take it. Well, again, I think we've got to be pretty careful with the verbs and the language that we're using.
28:27Right. Did did meta stories rip off Snapchat? Right. The history of Silicon Valley is replete with examples of competitors copying other products that others have. And then they have to win the game on the field. I would you know, I've talked to Dylan about this at Figma, you know, and if Figma had a choice to make, they can use the model or not use the model. I think some companies will say, listen, we're going to go open source because we don't want to have any interaction with these companies. But make no mistake about it. AI platforms are horizontal. They're not going to be confined to a narrow little area of applications.
29:04They're going to build their own applications. Remember, when Apple built iOS, they also built a mail app and a calendaring app and a browser app called Safari to compete with Google. They built a lot of apps of their own. And I'm certain that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build some apps of their own. Some of those will be competitive. Some of those will be novel. I don't think that's stealing. I think the history of Silicon Valley is a history of competition like that. I would never want companies that we're invested in to be milking somebody for all their information, getting their product IP, and then going out and deploying that.
29:39I don't think that's what happened here. But I understand the concern. Hey, Brad, do you see any end in sight in the growth expectations for AI at this point? You know, there's two camps, one that says, no, this is here, it's for real, and it's going to continue like that. The other is, look, AI is here, but you may not see the earnings continue to grow in some of these other companies around it. Explain which camp you're in and why. Yeah, well, I mean, listen, the question coming into this year, Becky, and remember, we had two 25 percent drawdowns in AI data center semiconductor stocks over the last 18 months over this question.
30:20Would the AI revenue justify the investment in CapEx, the extraordinary one point two trillion dollar annual investment in CapEx that we're seeing? People came into this year very nervous. In fact, on my podcast, my partner and I, Bill Gurley, were on opposite sides of this debate. I thought that the revenues would show up, but we didn't know. In January this year, we saw Anthropics revenues with Opus 4.8 beginning to take off. And then they went totally parabolic. That lit the fuse on the market with the socks up 80 % this year on the back of that revenue growth out of Anthropics. It's the single most important thing in the market.
30:56If you told me three months from now, all of a sudden Anthropics revenue or OpenAI's revenue stopped or stopped growing, that would be a real problem, not just for them, for the entire AI trade in the market. I don't see that. I don't expect that to continue. We're still very, very early. Let me, you know, in 125 trillion dollar global economy, if you take 5 % of that knowledge work, 5 to 10 % of that knowledge work, and you use AI to empower it, make it more productive, that's going to be, you know, hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue. If you look at the trajectory that Anthropic is on, I think it could be as high as$100 billion of revenue by the end of the year.
31:34There's lots of talk, obviously, about IPOs for both of these companies. And so I think there's extraordinary growth ahead. I think it's terrific for America, by the way. This is the single most important contributor to the GDP growth of the United States of America this year. It's contributing over 100 basis points of our GDP growth. Very important for us to see this continue. But listen, trust but verify. You got to see those revenues rolling in. They got to continue to build great products. I think there are a couple more models already being trained and in queue. Let's call these the post mythos models that we train starting in September on Vera Rubin.
32:10And so we're going to 10x the amount of compute that we use to train these models. We're going to dramatically improve the chips we use to train these models. We're going to stay ahead of China. And when we do that, we're going to have more and more products that are incredibly useful to both consumers like us, but also to enterprises. Hey, Brad, you know, the expectation this fall is that Anthropic will go public. There has been some talk that OpenAI could delay an offering into 27 with the hope of a trillion dollar valuation. Where do you stand on what that schedule looks like and the calculus behind it?
32:44Well, I'm kind of laughing, Andrew. Think about this. We're talking about delaying an IPO for a company that launched its product three years ago and is already at a trillion dollars in valuation. So I hardly consider that a delay. These guys are both on a rocket ship timeline. I've never seen anything like it. I've never seen revenue growth like it. I've never seen a this short a path to the public markets. But my sense is this. I want to see I've been pushing these companies from a very early place. I would love to see them get into the public markets. We need this value creation to be shared with all of America.
33:17By the way, I would love to see them voluntarily contribute some shares like Gwen Shotwell did this morning. Would you prefer that? What do you think about Sam Altman's plan to donate effectively five percent of the entire company to the country in some way? Listen, shared prosperity, shared prosperity in our economic future is absolutely central, not only to my vision of the future, his vision of the future, but most importantly, the president, the White House's vision of the future. We have to spread this out. It can't be 10 percent of people own the capital, get the compounding and the upside.
33:51One way to do that. And I said last week on CNBC, two conditions in my mind have to be met. Number one, it has to be voluntary. I totally disagree with Bernie's suggestion that you're just going to take 50 percent of these companies or 25 percent of these companies. We didn't we didn't fight a war 250 years ago to break free from from the tyranny of taxation, to have somebody just show up and take 50 percent of your company. But if they want to voluntarily give 1%, 2%, 5 % of their shares. And then the second piece for me, I don't like the idea of a government slush fund. This administration might do something great with it.
34:27Future administrations may put it to a purpose that a lot of America disagrees with. So from my perspective, voluntary and then distributed directly into citizen accounts. There should be citizen ownership in the upside of America. And so I would support that. I've talked with Sam about it. I've talked with Elon about it. I've talked with Dario about it. I think that the future will include some version of that. But it needs to be really beneficial to all Americans. What do you think some people look at that and say, well, this is this is socialistic, this this approach for the government to be taking these stakes in the businesses, even if it's distributed ultimately to individuals?
35:01Well, no, I take I have a very different view. So let's let's look at two case studies. One, Intel. Intel was really struggling as a company. The U.S. government smartly said we need to rebuild our entire semiconductor stack here in America, not dependent exclusively on Taiwan. They invested dollars and got shares in return. It's been a massive success for the federal government. So that is an arm's length transaction between the government and Intel that I would totally support. separately. But that's like there's a there's a state capital, maybe called state capital, capitalism. I don't know what you described it, but that it's different than the approach that we've taken thus far.
35:41Well, you know, listen, I do not believe the government should be in the business of shaking down companies, taking shares like Bernie is suggesting, suggesting and then putting them into some slush fund for the government. I that is totally a socialist idea. We are anti that idea. I don't care if that idea is being proposed by a Republican or a Democrat. I'm totally against that idea. But the idea of philanthropy, Michael Dell giving six point two five billion dollars. I agree with you. Susan. And Sam is suggesting the exact same thing, a philanthropic contribution, a Dario philanthropic or an Elon or Gwen philanthropic contribution that firmly lands in a different category to benefit all citizens that I'm pushing for.
36:23That is the direction I think we're headed with this White House. I don't think we're going to follow the path that's being suggested by democratic socialists that we just go start taking shares from America's most successful companies and doing whatever we want with it. That would be a disaster for America. One other big AI question you mentioned. We talked about Anthropic and OpenAI. You mentioned what XAI is doing, what Elon is doing. And then you mentioned Google and Gemini sort of as a fourth. I'm curious where you think XAI really lands, where you think Gemini lands, and then one you didn't mention, but there's been a lot of reporting that suggests that they're still struggling, which is meta.
37:01How do you stack rank the situation? Well, I mean, listen, it's very clear. If you just look at the revenue numbers that are coming out of these companies, it's Anthropic and OpenAI that are leading the pack. They are the thoroughbreds at the moment. But remember, the largest compute stack in the world is now going to be, you know, controlled by Elon. He struck incredible deals with Anthropic and Google and Reflection and others. Really smart, generated terrific amount of revenue. He's the best in the world at standing up AI data centers. And now he can leverage that for the benefit of training his own models.
37:37And he made a really smart acquisition, the 50, 60 billion dollar acquisition of Cursor, led by an incredible founder in Michael. So I think they have a real shot as you look forward using that compute to build a frontier model. And the more competition, the better. Obviously, you can never count Google out. They are the original pioneer here. They have plenty of compute. They have all the money in the world. You know, I'm surprised that, you know, frankly, they haven't seen more traction here as of late, but I think that they'll be in the hunt. And then we saw a lot of Facebook last week, again, a double down on their commitment to compute.
38:09They, in fact, said, we're going to do what Elon did. We're going to sell our compute to others. So that's amortizing the cost like AWS did, which I think is a really smart business decision. But I think they're going to stay in the hunt as well and train their own models. So think about this, Andrew. Here we are three and a half years, you know, into the launch of ChatGPT. America has four or five incredible frontier models. We've got Reflection and NVIDIA on the open source side. We've got the best semiconductor or compute stack in the world. And we've got a regulatory environment that's letting our thoroughbreds run.
38:42That is the magic formula for this country. It's going to drive both GDP growth, but it's also going to make sure that we stay ahead in the global AI race. Brad, I want to thank you for your time this morning. I want to thank you and congratulate you on Trump accounts. Thanks. Thank you. We'll be right back. Exterior Remodels, Inner Monologues, brought to you by Power. The house looks good. Like, really good. That siding? Stunning. The roof? Elevated. Windows? I mean, wow. The process? Smooth. The neighbors? Jealous. Choose Power Home Remodeling and remodel how you think about remodeling. Schedule your free quote on windows, siding, roofing, and doors at powerhomeremodeling.com.
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40:33And that is Squawk Pod for today. Thanks for starting your week with us here on the podcast. Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernan, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Tune in weekday mornings on CNBC at 6 Eastern. To get the smartest takes and analysis from our TV show right into your ears, please follow Squawk Pod wherever you get your podcasts. We'll meet you right back here tomorrow. We are clear. Thanks, guys. Thank you.
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From the publisher
On July 4th, the administration officially launched Trump Accounts, a new savings and investing vehicle for kids under 18 in the U.S. One of the orchestrators, Silicon Valley investor Brad Gerstner, explains the platform, SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell’s donation to it, and the vision for the American dream. Plus, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce were married at MSG in New York over the holiday weekend, and President Trump gave multiple speeches for the 250th celebration of American independence, highlighting a commitment to freedom and opposition to communism.
Brad Gerstner - 15:44
In this episode:
Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk
Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick
Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin
Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie
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