Is Italy’s Super Volcano Getting Ready to Erupt?

0:00Today on State of the World, is Italy's supervolcano getting ready to erupt? You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories, up close where they're happening. I'm Greg Dixon. In Greek and Roman mythology, the Campi-Flegrei volcano is depicted as the entrance to the underworld. Its eruptions thousands of years ago blocked out the sun, turning summer into winter. And now this super volcano is stirring in a way it hasn't for centuries. NPR's Ruth Sherlock takes us to the volcano outside Naples to understand its new activity. In the old city of Pozzuoli outside of Naples, I join a tour group through the winding narrow alleyways.

0:54We listen to a guide beside a garden shaded by a tree laden with pomegranates.

1:06From this hilltop, you can look out over a curving bay, the sea sparkling in the sunshine under an intense blue sky, and the island of Capri, playground of the rich in the distance. But this immense beauty belies the danger in this region.

1:27All of us know we're living in a completely seismic area, says Maddalena de Sario, a resident of nearby Naples. Mount Vesuvius, whose lava once froze in time, the ancient Roman city of Pompeii, rises beside Naples. Long the muse of artists and poets, Hans Christian Andersen, during an eruption in 1834, described the lava as colossal fallen stars. But the truth is, a much bigger and potentially more dangerous seismic giant hides here underground. the Campi Flegrei.

2:09Giovanni Macedonio, the director of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Naples, describes the Campi Flegrei's giant volcanic eruption some 39 ,000 years ago.

2:23This supervolcano shot out 72 cubic miles of molten rock. Global temperatures plummeted and the entirety of Europe and even Russia were covered in volcanic ash.

2:40Rashidogno says scientists expect an eruption today would not be on that scale, but it could still be massive. In fact, the Campi Flegrei is considered by the Italian government as a national threat. Meshedagno says it could stop air travel across Europe and even other parts of the world. And what makes this volcano even more dangerous is that today, hundreds of thousands of people live right on it, in its eight-mile-wide crater.

3:14Some half a million people are in the red zone, the area authorities say would have to be evacuated for people to survive an eruption. It's for this reason that Macedonio and his team monitor the volcanoes every grumble and tremor.

3:42Mashedonio shows us the observatory with screens on every wall. They watch every volcano in the region, but recently it's the Campi Flegrei that causes concern. And while we're there, this happens.

3:58This alarm shows that there's an earthquake happening right now. It's in the Campi Flegrei, and that, these days, is not unusual.

4:10Last year there were 2 ,500 earthquakes in a single month. And the problem is they're getting stronger. This year has seen unprecedented tremors of up to 4.6 in magnitude, enough to crack walls and send people fleeing from homes. And while this is happening, the ground is swelling, slowly rising beneath people's feet. We go to see a clear example of this at an old city port in Pozzuoli Boats just nestled in the grass They used to float on water, now they're marooned on land It's bizarre because this is the kind of scene you'd expect from a drying lake But this is an inlet of the sea There is water, but the ground has risen so high that it's blocking the entry of the water from the sea It's as if this giant volcano were breathing The ground rising and falling over decades with every breath Before the last major eruption, 15 ,000 years ago The ground rose about 85 feet Now it's steadily rising again Up 4.6 feet since 2005 And the rate at which it's swelling is getting faster One thing that you learn very soon is that we do not have the control.

5:34Nature has the control. Warnar Marzocchi is a professor of geophysics and natural risk at the University of Naples, Federico II. This kind of volcanic system are used to have phases of unrest, like this one that we are observing. The biggest scientific challenge is to understand what is the drive behind this arrest. To meet that challenge, Marzocchi and his team are using artificial intelligence to build the most accurate picture yet. The technology suggests that, for now, the tremors are more the result of gases pushing superheated water up through the earth rather than magma rising. But this is no reason to relax, because, Marzocchi says, there is no guarantee that an eruption won't happen.

6:23It's unlikely, fortunately, but it's not zero. and in that case we do not have any possibility to reduce the risk because we can't stop a volcano. So what's it like to live in a volcanic crater where your life can change in an instant? I think there's a cold water under the local. Sometimes when the earthquakes, I feel like the volcano is right under my studio, says Pina Testa, an artist in Pozzuoli. She paints volcanic eruptions, giant plumes in all colours streaming into the sky.

7:08Fire and everything that is movement of the earth speaks to the soul, she says. There's even a kind of affection for the volcano.

7:21She remembers as a child the gatherings with neighbours on the street as they left their homes during an earthquake. It was a time to chat, to catch up, even share a pizza.

7:36The real resident of Botswali lives in harmony with the volcano, she says. They can get scared sometimes, but never terrified. and they do not leave. Ruth Sherlock, NPR News, Pootswale, near Naples.

7:56That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening.