President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran, what happens now?

0:00This message comes from ID Tech. ID Tech is where kids 7 to 17 find their people. The Camp Crunch Labs IRL, BattleBots, and Game Design people. Visit IDTech.com and use code IDTech to save$150. Today on State of the World, President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran. What happens now? You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. It's Wednesday, April 22nd. I'm Greg Dixon. Just before a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was set to expire, President Trump announced on social media that he was extending that ceasefire.

0:44Iran says that a ceasefire is meaningless unless a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted. It sees that blockade as an act of war. And then in the hours after Trump's announcement, Iran attacked at least three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. So where does this peace process stand? We're going to hear from Ryan Crocker. He's a former U.S. ambassador and top diplomat in the Middle East region. He spoke to a slightly sick Steve Inskeep. Okay, so Trump extends a ceasefire. Iran says that is meaningless. And meanwhile, both sides are seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Is this even a ceasefire?

1:23It's certainly better than all-out war. I think we've got two separate propositions here. One is the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and the other is everything else. And I think we should be trying to de-link them to get the Strait reopened as to go back to the status quo ante February 27th, free and unrestricted passage through the Strait of all ships in accordance with international maritime law versus lifting the blockade. And there we could have solid international support. The Brits and the French convened a meeting yesterday that called for just that. And that's where our focus should be now, not to let Iran turn this into the Strait of Iran.

2:08I think that you're saying that the peace negotiations with Iran could take a long time, but the world needs the oil supplies now. That would be a reason to reopen the Strait now. Is that right? That is right. But beyond just the immediate need of the world for oil, we cannot let the Iranian precedent of controlling the Strait of Hormuz stand. This has international implications. We have the Strait of Malacca in the South China Sea. We have Bab al-Mandeb in the Red Sea, the Tehran Straits, the Bosphorus, the Suez Canal, you name it. if the Iranian control of the strait is allowed to stand as a precedent, this is very, very dangerous for international maritime law everywhere in the world.

2:49There was a moment in which Iran said the strait is open, and then the United States imposed its blockade on Iranian ships. Would you imagine the United States backing off from the blockade and the Iranians letting other shipping flow? Well, the Iranian complete reopening of the straits was never that. They conditioned it. Okay, good point. But is that basically the deal? The U.S. would let ships move, Iran would let ships move, and they negotiate separately about everything else? That's right. But for Iran to let the ships move as they did on February 27th with no restrictions whatsoever. Now, the president said he extended the ceasefire at Pakistan's request.

3:27What is in the process for them as they try to get the peace talks restarted here? Well, Pakistan has been working to strengthen its relationship with Iran for the past year. Exactly today, April 22nd last year, there was a terrorist attack and Indian held Kashmir. The Indians blamed Pakistan for harboring the elements that carried it out. And those two countries, two nuclear armed countries, got into a shooting war. The United States intervention brought that to a halt and Pakistan has been doing everything it can since then to develop a close relationship with the U.S. Asa Moneer, the chief of army staff, visited Washington, was received by Trump very warmly.

4:07And I think the Pakistanis see an opportunity here through their mediation on this particular crisis to strengthen that relationship even further. And Trump's announcement yesterday would suggest that's working pretty well for them. Now, as you know, the Iranians said Trump's announcement was a trick, that it's a prelude to an attack. We don't know if that's true, but we do know the reality that Trump has ordered attacks before in the middle of peace talks. How is this process complicated by the fact that that's the history? The U.S. could open fire at any time? I think what makes this round different is precisely the last six weeks.

4:43President Trump has been signaling for some time now that he really wants a way out of this, that he does want a ceasefire. I think the Iranians read him correctly on that and stonewalled to the point where effectively President Trump backed down. So I think the dynamic here is that the president, unlike the previous two episodes, February 28th and last June, President Trump has now tried a shooting war and doesn't like it so much. So I think this ceasefire has a better chance of sticking. The problem is, is to Iran's advantage. Does the president seem too eager for a deal then, in spite of all of his apocalyptic rhetoric from time to time?

5:25That is the way I think they read it in Tehran, that if Iran stands fast, if it sticks to its guns, the president will back down. And the way he conducted this business over the last 24 hours would seem to validate that view. Meaning that the United States has less and less leverage regardless of what the president says. He still has considerable leverage, I think, on the straight. The blockade is hurting Iran very badly. They've got about four weeks to go before they have to shut in production, which would severely damage their oil fields in addition to the cash problem. So he's got leverage, but I think he needs to use it again to get a full and unconditional reopening of the strait.

6:08Former Ambassador Ryan Crocker, always a pleasure to talk with you. Thank you so much. Thank you.

6:18And that's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening. Across the country, parents are taking their kids out of traditional public schools and opting for private or charter schools instead. My kids have to come first for me. Greater good has to come second. On the Sunday Story, we go to Cedar Rapids, Iowa to see how going all in on school choice is leaving some students behind. Listen now on the Up First podcast on the NPR app.