Russia’s Hybrid War on Europe

0:00Today on State of the World, Russia's hybrid war on Europe.

0:08You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories, up close, where they're happening. I'm Greg Dixon. In a few minutes, Ukrainians react to Russian attacks, power cuts, and cold weather by holding dance parties on ice. But first, a look at a different kind of warfare. Russia's hybrid war on the rest of Europe. Ever since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, military experts say Russia has stepped up attacks on Europe that live in a gray zone, shutting down airports with drones or attacking critical infrastructure. It's an effort to undermine Western support for Ukraine.

0:49And the attacks are becoming more dangerous. NPR's Rob Schmitz takes us to Poland. When I ask him to take me to the latest Russian act of sabotage on Polish soil, police officer Piotr Pokorski leads me through the snow across a frozen farm field, through a thatch of dead cattails, and across a frozen creek before he stops underneath an embankment and points. Above us, a foot-long section of railroad track catches the frozen sunlight, reflecting a bronze-colored sheen.

1:31The explosion happened here, he says, and this section of track was damaged, but not significant enough to derail the trains along this track. A train engineer noticed it just in time to stop his train, and then he reported it to us. Fortunately, nobody was injured.

1:49Thousands of people ride on passenger trains along this line every day. And so does military aid traveling from Warsaw to Ukraine. In the days following the November attack, Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the country's security services identified two Ukrainian suspects believed to be hired by Russia. Tusk said they escaped neighboring Belarus immediately after the attack. Poland Internal Security Agency spokesman Jacek Dobryzynski.

2:20The choice of the attack site, says Dobryzynski, was not accidental. It was on a viaduct right before a curve in the track. Had they succeeded in destroying the track, the consequences would have been serious. Dozens of people could have been killed. Dobryzynski says he sees the attack as a test.

2:41The Russians want to see how much they can get away with, he says, what the Polish response will be, how the media reacts, how our security services react, and what evidence we uncover. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that Russia is being blamed for what he called all manifestations of hybrid warfare in Poland, adding that Russophobia is flourishing there. Dobryzynski says what is flourishing are Russian attacks. His office tracks dozens of attempts each day to test the country's electric, transportation and digital infrastructure. He says before Russia's war in Ukraine, the attacks were conducted by agents trained by Russia.

3:17But in the past few years, the attacks have been waged by what he calls disposable agents. They recruit these disposables through the messaging app Telegram, Dobrydzinski says. And they pay them a little money to do small things at first, like observing rail routes and reporting back to them. or they spray paint anti-EU graffiti in the city, things like that. And if they're good at it, then they'll ask them to do more serious things, like setting fires to buildings. That's how, he says, the Russians recruited a 27-year-old man from Colombia who was arrested last summer for setting fires to two construction supply depots.

3:54Dobryzhinsky says Russian agents taught the man to make incendiary devices and had him film the fires he set for broadcast on Russian state television, where it falsely reported that the fires were set to military depots filled with aid for Ukraine. My sense is that these attacks are getting more visible because Russia is really trying to influence the general population in European countries. Ulrika Franca is a security expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The logic being that, you know, if the population gets scared and feels like their own security services, police, etc. isn't able to counteract these attacks, they may push for a more conciliatory stance towards Russia and maybe become less supportive of Ukraine in their defense efforts.

4:48Franke says Russia has scaled up its hybrid attacks on Western Europe, too, with its army of drones.

4:57German news was peppered with drone sightings at airports throughout Germany last autumn, leading to hundreds of canceled flights. Franke says Russia's scaled up its hybrid attacks on Europe because the Kremlin wants to send a signal to Europeans that their governments are not able to counter such attacks. But at what point will Europe strike back? I asked Franke about the attack on Poland's railway. What if the attack would have succeeded? A passenger train was derailed and dozens were killed. This is incredibly difficult. I mean, the moment people get killed and it becomes clearer that it's linked to Russia, we may be entering Article 5 territory, meaning that, you know, NATO's mutual defense clause might come into action.

5:39Of course, this never means any kind of automatic military reaction, but it would be quite a strong signal. So far, NATO has yet to invoke Article 5. The attack on one is an attack on all clause. But Franca says that with every hybrid attack, Russia is getting closer to forcing Europe and NATO to consider a military response. That's NPR's Rob Schmitz in Poland.

6:09Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy grid have left cities without power this winter, including in the capital, Kiev. There, NPR's Joannica Kisys found some Ukrainians who are coping by dancing their way through the cold on frozen bodies of water. It is several degrees below zero outside, but the sun is shining on the frozen banks of the Dnipro River. Natalia Avrmenko wears a furry, hot pink hat and layers of insulated clothing. At home, we have not water and electricity. I and my girls, we only dance. I dance, belly dance. She is actually a belly dancing teacher. The mothers of her students are partying with her, passing around a wireless speaker.

6:59One of the moms, Elena Alexandruc, is the DJ.

7:05It's gotten so much harder to be happy, she says, but we have this small flame of hope in our hearts that we try to keep burning. Nearby, someone barbecues sausages. On the snowy ground, there is a burned book. It's in Russian. Everyone steps on its charred pages. Another party is actually on the river, which is frozen solid. A DJ has set up here, his gear powered by a generator. A young crowd hops in unison to do a lipa, like a rave on ice. Zhenya Chupiha is a 30-year-old recruiter, and she says these parties are like therapy. They help to have fun in such dark moments of our life. Yeah, it's such a hard winter.

7:55But not hard enough to leave Kiev. She says the Russians are trying to make Ukrainians so miserable that they will agree to end the war on Russia's terms. They think they will bomb our power plants, we will leave, but no, it's not work like that. Hey, hey, nice to meet you. The DJ Vitaly Svetschinsky says these parties are an act of resistance. I just wanted to give an energy and to tell that we will never give up. Just outside Kiev, there's another big party. It's on this enormous reservoir that the locals call the key of sea. We walk right on it because, yeah, it's also frozen solid. The ice is so thick, Ukrainians are actually driving their cars on it.

8:43People are lining up on the ice for a ride in Alex Kolganov's amateur race buggy. Your buggy is very popular. Yeah, sure. Yeah, sure. Yeah. It's like when you come to Disneyland or something, You want the best, you know, here is the best right now. Okay, girls. We decide to take a spin, too, perhaps against our better judgment. Because as you can hear, it is much more terrifying than it is fun. Luckily for everyone, there is a doctor here. This is amazing. I've never seen people on the ice out there, you know, so. Dr. Farhad Ostavari helps wounded veterans in Ukraine. He splits his time between suburban Washington, D.C.

9:28and Kyiv. People don't have power, no water, and it's like negative 20 degrees and they are out here partying. So that's exactly, like, that's Ukrainians. And you're joining them. Absolutely, yeah. And more people are joining in, even as the sun sets and it gets colder and colder. Joanna Kakises, NPR News, Kyiv.

9:56That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening.