Shifting momentum in the Russia-Ukraine war

0:00NPR Reporter in Kyiv:This week on Up First, one trend emerging this election season. President Trump actively opposing Republicans he sees as disloyal and endorsing their primary challengers who've toppled incumbents in multiple states. We're watching key primaries on Tuesday in Kentucky and elsewhere to see if that narrative holds up and what those races might tell us about November. Listen to Up First every morning on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:24NPR Reporter in Moscow:Today on State of the World, shifting momentum in the Russia-Ukraine war.

0:32NPR Reporter in Moscow:You're listening to State of the World from NPR. We bring you the day's most vital international stories up close where they're happening. It's Monday, May 18th. I'm Greg Dixon. It's been more than four years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And though the war has been grinding on without a dramatic change in the battlefield map, the conflict may have reached a turning point. In Russia, there are signs of growing public fatigue with the operation. And Ukraine has improved its drone technology, hitting deeper inside Russian territory. We're going to hear from NPR reporters in both countries' capitals.

1:09NPR Reporter in Moscow:Joanna Kikisys is in Kiev. Charles Maines is in Moscow. They spoke to Alyssa Nadwerny.

1:15NPR Reporter in Kyiv:OK, so Charles, let's start with you. Russia held its annual parade marking the Soviet Union's contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany. But it was much different than previous years. How have Russians responded to this?

1:27NPR Reporter in Moscow:You know, yeah, I mean, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Victory Day parade featured no tanks, no missiles, no nuclear launchers rumbling across Red Square. Guests were few. The media was restricted, including NPR, by the way. The actual ceremony itself was a swift 45 minutes and out. And all of this was a reflection of the Kremlin's concerns over potential Ukrainian drone strikes interrupting the ceremony, which in the end was unnecessary. Moscow and Kiev agreed to a last-minute three-day ceasefire negotiated by President Trump. But somehow the Kremlin came out looking diminished from all of this, in part because the parade celebrates a victory over Nazi Germany that its forces haven't been able to replicate in Ukraine, but also because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released a presidential decree allowing Putin to hold his scaled-back parade with a promise not to attack.

2:16NPR Reporter in Moscow:It was obviously a bit of online trolling, and it really seemed to work. Nationalists here just lost their minds over it.

2:22NPR Reporter in Kyiv:Okay, so that's kind of cheeky of Zelensky. I mean, let's bring in Joanna. What's behind the swagger? Well, Alyssa, the Ukrainians have, to some extent, flipped the script in this war. I mean, critics of long-portrayed Ukraine is constantly begging for military aid. But in the last year, especially, the Ukrainians have developed very effective weapons for robotic warfare. We spoke to one soldier, Alashir. He's from the 93rd Brigade. And he works with a unit that operates drones on land. Now, these ground drones carry supplies and ammunition to the front line. They evacuate the wounded. They even perform assaults on Russian soldiers.

2:59NPR Reporter in Kyiv:And he's saying, look, we have like 30 million Ukrainians and there are 130 million Russians. We cannot resist them all. So we had to invent something new to survive. Without these innovations, you know, we wouldn't last long. OK, so he's talking about ground drones, but the Ukrainians also use drones in the sky and in the sea. How have these drones helped? So let's focus on aerial drones. Ukraine uses these to hit Russian oil refineries and depots, long-range drones. And they also use these cheap interceptor drones. They look like toy rockets, but they destroy far bigger and more expensive Iranian-designed Shahhead drones that Russia uses to attack Ukrainian cities.

3:41NPR Reporter in Kyiv:Now, Middle Eastern countries have signed defense deals with Ukraine because of these interceptor drones due to the war in Iran. Ukraine can shoot down nearly all attack drones, but it only shoots down about 75 percent of missiles. And when missiles get through, you know, Alyssa, they are incredibly destructive. More than 20 people died in Kiev on Thursday after a Russian missile crushed this apartment building. And right now I'm actually looking at a photo of one of the dead. She's a sixth grader named Lyubova Yakovleva. She's got red hair, this toothy grin, this bright blue headband. And, you know, her sister was also killed in this massive strike.

4:21NPR Reporter in Kyiv:And their father, a soldier, was killed in action three years ago. Charles, let's shift now to the diplomatic front. President Trump famously promised to end this war in a day. Obviously, that has not happened. And his administration has certainly spent months trying to find a negotiated settlement. Where do things stand now?

4:43NPR Reporter in Moscow:You know, I think by and large, there's a sense that the peace process is stalled with the White House preoccupied by the war in Iran, even if Trump hasn't disengaged entirely, for example, that recent ceasefire. But the talks, you know, they seem as stuck as the battlefield picture. Russia's position hasn't changed much. It says the fighting would end if Ukraine would voluntarily cede the Donbass. This is land Russia hasn't been able to conquer entirely in more than four years of fighting. But Ukraine won't go for it. That territory is Ukraine's primary line of defense to further Russian incursions.

5:14NPR Reporter in Moscow:And meanwhile, Russia still insists a lasting settlement address what it calls the root causes of the conflict. That being in Kremlin eyes, NATO's expansion, the ouster of what it claims are fascists in Ukraine's government and the country's demilitarization.

5:27NPR Reporter in Kyiv:But Trump was recently saying he thinks they're getting, quote, very close to a deal. No? Yeah.

5:35NPR Reporter in Moscow:You know, Trump seems eternally optimistic he can bring about an end to this war. And the Kremlin has certainly done its part to tempt him towards Moscow's side, offering all sorts of business investments in Russia once sanctions end, for example. But hopes here in Moscow have really faded that Trump could force Ukraine into a peace deal it doesn't like.

5:53NPR Reporter in Kyiv:And Alyssa, I should chime in here and say that, you know, Ukraine was never going to agree to any peace deal without ironclad security guarantees from the U.S., which Trump has not delivered. Hmm. Okay, so Charles, we're in year five of this war. Do you see an end in sight?

6:09NPR Reporter in Moscow:Well, there's a sense here that Russians are tired of this. The war has brought enormous casualties and suffering. The economy is on shaky ground now. Repressions and restrictions seem only to be expanding. The most recent example, these rolling internet blackouts that have really brought digital life and all that comes with it, you know, banking, taxis, communication, all of that's to a halt. And all of this is damaging Putin's polling numbers, which creates the feeling that the country is somehow adrift.

6:34NPR Reporter in Kyiv:Okay. And Joanna, I mean, what's the view from Ukraine? Well, Alyssa, it seems that Zelensky seems to end every single one of his speeches by saying, look, you know, Ukraine wants peace. And, you know, he's been frustrated that peace negotiations have stalled. And see, he seems to have lost faith in the Trump administration. Now, like all Ukrainians, Zelensky is clearly very exhausted by this war. You can see it on his face. But he also seems to realize that his country finally has its own cards to play and will keep pushing for peace that will preserve the country's independence and integrity on its own terms.

7:07NPR Reporter in Kyiv:That's Joanna Kakissis in Kiev and Charles Maines in Moscow. Thanks for speaking with us today. You're welcome, Thank you.

7:19NPR Reporter in Moscow:That's the State of the World from NPR. Thanks for listening.

7:25NPR Reporter in Kyiv:For poor people in one of the world's fastest growing mega cities, development means displacement and violence. We are homeless now. No where to stay. No where to sleep. On the Sunday Story, the human cost of building Lagos, Nigeria into the Dubai of Africa. Listen now to the Sunday Story from the Up First podcast on the NPR app.